Election talk (17)

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edmundoconnor
Election talk (17)

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edmundoconnor

Continued from previous thread.

edmundoconnor

I don't think Graves would be teasing everyone quite so much unless he really did have a warren's-worth of white bunnies to pull out of his top hat, FWIW.

Bärlüer

A Laytoncade "surges" through the streets of Montreal.

That is all.

Sean in Ottawa

Since this is Stephen Harper's birthday my partner would like to give him a special Chinese gift.

 

A Chinese Muffin. A delicacy. Ma Fen.

edmundoconnor

I would send a book, but Yann Martel's been there, done that.

Sean in Ottawa

Had trouble with the accents here it is: mǎ fèn

alan smithee alan smithee's picture

Vive le Quebec!

Sean in Ottawa

Or in Chinese characters 马粪.

She said she would like to deliver this specialty personally

Sean in Ottawa

So Happy Birthday harper please eat lots of 马粪

alan smithee alan smithee's picture

Are these muffins made of manure?

If so,I'm hoping he'll be eating alot of it Monday.

Sean in Ottawa

Hi Alan. Google translate is your friend.

Let's just say you can't get these at Tim Horton's

edmundoconnor
alan smithee alan smithee's picture

Sean in Ottawa wrote:

Hi Alan. Google translate is your friend.

Let's just say you can't get these at Tim Horton's

 

LOL.

 

Maybe he can share a bunch with the rest of his cronies and defeated MP's.

That's a dish best served warm...Hope he enjoys it.

Sean in Ottawa

I tweeted this as well:

Hey Harper Happy Birthday hope you are having lots of Fèn (粪)

An appropriate response to a PM who does not answer questions

Vansterdam Kid

alan smithee wrote:

Vive le Quebec!

Et merci pour le Quebec. Ils sont plus intellegent que nous en le reste de Canada avec leur sortons des conservateurs premierement. (That's all I've got!)

edmundoconnor

Regarding this article: I think the NDP will get the voters out. I have worked on more than a few campaigns, and everyone I have worked with this time out has deeply impressed me with their commitment, their passion, their enthusiasm, and their expertise. Whether in York South--Weston or Saskatoon--Rosetown--Biggar (two more different ridings aren't easy to imagine), I have seen the campaigns give their absolute all.

Having seen them in action in the last five weeks, I have no doubt that every campaign and the NDP nationally will work like b*****ds to pull this off. We can do this.

Anonymouse

The media is basically repeating the NDP's message, it is saying "Vote Canadians!"

With all this "will they vote?" speculation, let me say that about the only thing that the media used to give the NDP credit for in the past (even when the party was really weak, e.g. 9% of the national vote), was its ability to get out the vote. So with the stakes so high, and the party so pumped I think this will be a barn-burner. The only province I'm worried about the NDP supporters turning out in is in Manitoba. Everywhere else, where there is an organisation, there will be votes.

nicky

Robert Fife on CTV just said that the Cons may lose 7 seats in Quebec to the NDP.

adma

I took a quick evening transit jaunt to Scarborough, and here's where I think things may be murkier than the scenario of NDP doing to the Liberals what Reform did to the PCs indicates...

I was expecting to encounter a surge in last-minute orange signage.  From my very admittedly limited observation--there were orange bits in Scarborough SW, but given the seat's record, that was to be expected, and in fact there was skimpy side-street signage all around (and Dan Harris has that weird quirk of recycling 2000-era signage together w/giant Jack signs).  And as for Scarborough Centre...judging from Lawrence/Birchmount/Warden signage, it's still fundamentally a LibCon, Cannis-vs-James race.  I spotted an NDP Natalie Hundt sign N of Lawrence on Warden, another one on Warden N of the hydro swath (sharing space w/a Con sign, of all things).  Now, if the Orange Revolution truly is hitting Toronto, unless it's a really ethereal post-signage thing I'd expect to see it palpable in a declining/ethnicizing inner-suburban seat like Scarborough Centre, which does have a provincial NDP history, where Cannis is the last kind of Liberal you can see surviving a 20%-third-place-level meltdown, where the federal Conservatives are still an ambivalent option, and where Hundt did well by cracking 15% last time.  It isn't quite like Etobicoke Centre or Don Valley West--it's genuinely viable, if the ground crew and infrastructure were in place and prepared for a wave like the present.  Yet...who knows, maybe I just looked in the wrong spots.  Though I still feel it's a seat worth monitoring, maybe from a "signs don't tell the whole story" perspective.

Policywonk

nicky wrote:

Robert Fife on CTV just said that the Cons may lose 7 seats in Quebec to the NDP.

Let's hope they lose all of them, and Andre Arthur too.

Anonymouse

That suggests the survivors would be Denis Lebel, Steven Blaney, Maxime Bernier, and 1 more.

adma

I'll assume that the "1 more" is Jacques Gourde in Lotbiniere-CdelaC.

NorthReport

Kewl!
Does the election mark Common Sense Revolution 2.0?

 

http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/politics/article/983436--does-the-ele...

Anonymouse

No, I checked, and unfortunately the one more would be Christian Paradis. The NDP candidate in Megantic-L'Erable is one of the controversial phantom candidates (e.g. supposedly a unilingual anglophone).

ghoris

Wouldn't Christian Pardis in Megantic be just as likely to survive as Gourde?

My guess is that the Tories are reasonably assured of holding onto 5 seats: Roberval-Lac-Saint-Jean, Beauce, Megantic-L'Erable, Lotbiniere-Chutes-de-la-Chaudiere and Levis-Bellechasse.  They are in tight in Louis-Saint-Laurent, Jonquiere-Alma and Montmagny-L'Islet-Kamouraska-Riviere-du-Loup, but may hang on. I think they are likely to lose Beauport-Limolou, Charlesbourg-Haute-St-Charles and Pontiac.

Of course, *anything* can happen this time in Quebec, but barring a complete and total meltdown I think the Tories are reasonably assured of at least five seats, and could win as many as eight. Don't see them doing much better than that.

Anonymouse

If the Conservatives really lost those 7 seats in QC, that would be a HUGE blow. Lawrence Cannon was the next person in succession to the Prime Minister in the last government and a possible leadership contender. He is very likely to lose. To a communist turned NDPer no less!

These results would leave the Conservatives with one remaining cabinet minister (Christian Paradis) and one minister of state (Denis Lebel) from QC. Maxime Bernier and Andre Arthur (independent) are toxic, so the best you could see them as is ministers of state. That puts Stephen Blaney in cabinet and boosts Mad Max's chances in any future leadership run.

Also of note, there hasn't been a poll in his riding so...what if Christian Paradis lost...to the BQ because the NDP took Conservative votes? Smile This is a federalist riding so it is completely concievable that the BQ could come up the middle in a 3 or 4-way split.

Prediction: if all this comes to bear, Harper will once again have to have Quebec ministers running out of the Senate, but there are only two open Quebec senate seats there too Smile  IF Harper pulls off a win he could be between a rock and a hard place with cabinet representation from QC. Couldn't happen to a nicer guy Smile

NorthReport

Is there a cut-off time for the media to stop reporting new polls, etc. Is there a blackout period or is that just for the actual election results.

Anonymouse

I am more bullish on QC. I think the only ridings the Conservatives can count as safe from the NDP are Roberval-Lac-Saint-Jean, Beauce, Megantic-L'Erable, and Levis-Bellechasse...and I am hopeful the BQ can beat the CPC in Levis-Bellechase.

adma

Anonymouse wrote:
Also of note, there hasn't been a poll in his riding so...what if Christian Paradis lost...to the BQ because the NDP took Conservative votes? Smile This is a federalist riding so it is completely concievable that the BQ could come up the middle in a 3 or 4-way split.

It's a bit my point: factoring the NDP out of things, versus the Bloc alone, Paradis is more vulnerable than Gourde, simply because it's less of a "bedrock" ToryAdequiste seat.  (It may also depend on the kind of NDP competition Gourde's facing, if he's more vulnerable than Paradis.)

Boom Boom Boom Boom's picture

If Harper continues as PM, those two vacant Quebec senate seats will be filled with failed Con candidates probably right away. If Cannon is indeed defeated, he'll probably be a Senator by the end of this week.

knownothing knownothing's picture

Yes Boom Boom you are right

Anonymouse

Boom Boom wrote:

If Harper continues as PM, those two vacant Quebec senate seats will be filled with failed Con candidates probably right away. If Cannon is indeed defeated, he'll probably be a Senator by the end of this week.

That would make Cannon sort of a Canadian equivalent of John Ashcroft. If you don't know about John Ashcroft, he was a personal favourite of Bush that was defeated in Missouri, against all odds, by a candidate that died in the middle of the campaign. Got that? The voters preferred a dead man to John Ashcroft.

Bush promptly appointed John Ashcroft to cabinet, but Ashcroft's political career was permanently diminished.

So if Cannon loses to a former communist, kiss his leadership ambitions goodbye!

Anonymouse

The buzz in Quebec City is that the NDP is poised to sweep. I think in that climate and with a non-phantom candidate running in Gourde's riding...he is in deep trouble.

Anonymouse

"Harper missed his chance" says Layton (article in French)

 

On Monday, let's show Harper the (orange) door!

howeird beale

Just caught this from the last thread

racial_realist wrote:
those least likely to bother showing up to vote: young, underemployed urbanites.

Yeah, they're young, so they're too naive to vote for your buddy Steve.

Yeah, they're underemployed, because that's who vote for the NDP, y'know, lazy potheads too dumb to vote for your buddy Steve

I mean why would a kid look at the panoply of minimum wage jobs on offer in Harper's Canada and want to vote for anything else?

And urbanites, huh? What's that mean? They're not white?

They're so naive they're probably not even "racial realists" whatever that means

They're probably just like all those dopey young people who filled NFL stadiums for Obama and then voted in epic numbers

And thats in a country full of racial realists

What's a racial realist?

Why are you here?

You think a womans choice under Harper is safe do you?

What's a racial realist?

Why are you here?

What's a racial realist?

Do you remember when Harper ran the national Citizens coalition?

Do you remember when he had bald young guys in suspenders and Docs handing out flyers at peace rallies?

Do you remember Taylor?

Whats a racial realist?

howeird beale

Hey one other thing, your moniker reminds me of another term I havent thought of in 20 years: "racialist"

This definition I found on line sums it up nicely:



Essentialy the same thing as "Racist", but the letters "al" added. Something people use to justify their hatred of other people's races without assuming the label of a racist.
"I am not a racist, I'm a racialist"

I mention this only in passing

What's a racial realist?

Anonymouse
howeird beale

I've blocked him now, but "racial realist" didnt want to spell out what a racial realist is here, but he did write this lovely note as a PM:

Racial Realist's PM:

"I've fought for freedom all my life and I'll be God-damned if some punk like you is gonna shit-talk me."

Well, that certainly is cogent

What's a racial realist?

I dont think Babble really appreciates linking to noxious bonehead dogshit but after Googling your name, the first fact that popped up was:

David Duke describes himself as a racial realist

Well, how surprising. What a co-wink-ee-dink

And I said to myself "Yup. Right again"

Were you there at Restorante Roma when the Anti-Racist Action showed up?

that was really funny.

 

bekayne

Remember that Toronto Star story where Conservative insiders said a majority was not possible? From Conservative pollster Nick Kouvalis' twitter:

 

 Pundits' Guide 

Torstar: "there is currently no 'seat matrix that gets Harper to a majority.'" http://j.mp/jlM7Ll 

28 Apr

 Nick Kouvalis 

@ TO Star.... Hahahahaha

28 Apr

 Pundits' Guide 

@ Well, I did wonder why CPC warroom would talk to Star, unless it was to get Liberals to slack off on E-day or something.

28 Apr

»

 Nick Kouvalis 

@ there are still many paths to victory - 4 days to go

28 Apr

 Pundits' Guide 

@ Boy, one thing: you guys never give up! Not every tactic works, but you always have hundreds up your sleeves.

28 Apr

 

bekayne

Here's his prediction from a couple of days ago:

@ @ @ my predictions from the other day still hold: ~ 155,  ~ 65,  ~ 55, ~ 35

27 Apr via web

Slumberjack

Yesterday a couple of Mark Eyking's relatives (Liberal: Sydney-Victoria), including his son, were campaigning door to door on his behalf.  Their chipper introduction changed into a dour, apologetic, 'enjoy the rest of your day' departure by the time the conversation ended, during which they conceded that Michael Ignatieff wasn't a particularly good leader, that Bob Rae wasn't any better and practically unelectable as the next party leader because of Ontario, and that they really did like Jack Layton.  They assumed my voting intentions of course.

NorthReport

Another terrible day for Harper on the campaign trail

John Ivison: Why are Harper supporters heckling the media?
Quite why the press conference needed to be held in front of a hostile crowd is not clear, unless it was an attempt to intimidate journalists. Other parties hold the presser in a separate room after the event.

Party spindoctors suggest Mr. Harper likes the visuals of being surrounded by supporters but it lends the appearance of a lynch mob when the inevitable happens. One suspects the visuals of this morning's episode will be replayed on newscasts across the country and confirm many people's impressions of the Conservative Party as the home of anger, intolerance and blind partisanship.

The Tories message control is a genuinely worrying aspect of a government that, in many other ways, is best qualified to lead this country. As WT Stanbury, professor emeritus at the University of British Columbia, wrote in the Hill Times in 2009: "The wall of selective silence and control shrouds the entire government and undermines the free flow of information citizens could normally expect." He called it "the most extreme example of court government in Canada's history".

If the Conservatives do win majority on Monday, it would seem likely that much of the day to day rancour in Parliament would be reduced, as losing parties rebuilt and the government concentrated more on governing than on re-election. There would be less control over MPs and committees might actually be let loose to do good work.

But there is not likely to be any thaw in relations between the Prime Minister and the press gallery. More likely, Mr. Harper will see it as payback time for having had to endure humiliating incidents like the Richmond Hill auto shop.

http://fullcomment.n...ling-the-media/

nicky

Nick Kouvalis NickKouvalis Nick Kouvalis Iggy's in trouble in Lakeshore 29 Apr

Ciabatta2

bekayne wrote:

Remember that Toronto Star story where Conservative insiders said a majority was not possible? From Conservative pollster Nick Kouvalis' twitter:

I thought it seemed too well-timed to be legit.  I mean, really, would the Conservatives ever admit something like that if it wasn't to achieve a specific purpose...?

NorthReport

Harper's running scared.

 

Canada's tin pot dictator Harper will not allow any questions from the media today - what a coward!

Slumberjack

It's Sunday anyway.  Doesn't everyone eat cake on Sundays?

Randomics

It seems to me that a ton hinges on the extent of the Bloc collapse on E-day. The viability of any coalition, formal or otherwise, is much greater if it doesn't require the Bloc to outnumber the cons, even if that still doesn't deliver a majority - eg 90 NDP + 60 LPC vs 140 CPC, with 18 BQ in the mix - this could possibly get some things done and command some authority in the public's eyes while (mostly) avoiding the optics of "conspiring with the separatists" that Harper has exploited so ruthlessly. Obviously 95 NDP + 60 LPC would be preferable, and 155 NDP moreso, but if the cons outnumber the NDP + LPC collectively, he'll be able to run with that and continue to sound the alarm of violated democracy (and he'll miss the irony of that, as ever).

JeffWells

To be fair, I've read Jack's "in the bubble" today, not taking questions, media travelling in a second bus, just racing event to event.

I think that's the thing to do in a tight race, last day.

 

vermonster

JeffWells wrote:

To be fair, I've read Jack's "in the bubble" today, not taking questions, media travelling in a second bus, just racing event to event.

I think that's the thing to do in a tight race, last day.

But to be equally fair, Layton hasn't run his entire campaign doing the same thing Harper has every day - refusing to take more than 4 or 5 media questions a day, having partisan crowds shout down journalists who ask tough questions, restricting public access to his events, and engaging in a nation-wide strategy of having many of his candidates similarly avoid any public scrutiny. 

It would be far less odious today for Harper if he hadn't spent the last 5 weeks hiding from the media as well.  

SwineFlewBy SwineFlewBy's picture

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