Is the Election in the UK turning out to be a blueprint for NDP success here in Canada?

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JKR

takeitslowly wrote:

Gordon Brown caught off camera calling a Labor granny voter a `bigoted woman`

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZkREnSghrTU&feature=player_embedded

 

It'll be interesting to see how this changes the election. Looks like this will push Labour firmly into third place in the popular vote. The wild-card now is how the LibDems will do.  If the LibDems can benefit from Brown's mistake, the UK may end up with a minority government.

 

Bigotgate is yet another example of how Canadian and UK poitics run parallel to each other.

Brown's trouble with an open microphone is reminiscent of Stephen Dion's troubled CTV interview.

That open microphone was owned by Rupert Murdoch's right wing Sky Channel.

And that Stephen Dion interview was manipulated by our right-wing CTV.

Mike DUFFY precipitated CTV's attack on Dion.

Gillian DUFFY, the elderly Labour supporter, precipitated this incident in the UK.

Maybe they're distant cross-Atlantic relatives?

Will Cameron appoint her to the House of Lords?

Stockholm

I doubt of this incident will actually make all that much of a difference. <!-- /* Style Definitions */ p.MsoNormal, li.MsoNormal, div.MsoNormal {mso-style-parent:""; margin:0in; margin-bottom:.0001pt; mso-pagination:widow-orphan; font-size:12.0pt; font-family:"Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman";} p.MsoPlainText, li.MsoPlainText, div.MsoPlainText {margin:0in; margin-bottom:.0001pt; mso-pagination:widow-orphan; font-size:10.0pt; font-family:"Courier New"; mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman";} @page Section1 {size:8.5in 11.0in; margin:1.0in 1.25in 1.0in 1.25in; mso-header-margin:.5in; mso-footer-margin:.5in; mso-paper-source:0;} div.Section1 {page:Section1;} -->

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I have a hunch that the pundits are drastically OVER-estimating the impact of G Brown's "bigot" comment. Labour is down to its core vote already and I just don't think they can go much lower - there has already been enough stories about Brown being a nasty guy that people have already made up their one way or the other on that!

epaulo13 epaulo13's picture

The Parasites in Labour’s Brain
Posted May 3, 2010
By George Monbiot, published in the Guardian 4th may 2010

Quote:
Cling onto nurse for fear of something worse. Though she has become crabbed and vicious, though she has usurped our parents, swiped our inheritance, binned our toys and sold the nursery, we must cower behind her skirts for fear of the beasts that prowl beyond. This, in essence, is what Polly Toynbee, Jonathan Freedland, Seumas Milne and Nick Cohen are now telling us to do(1,2,3,4).

By instructing us, over the years, to heed fears, not hopes, such voices have allowed Labour to abandon everything it once stood for, and hand us, trussed and oven-ready, to big business and the Daily Mail. We’ll be trapped like this forever, in New Labour’s Bermuda triangulation, unless we vote for what we believe in rather than just against what we don’t.....

http://www.monbiot.com/archives/2010/05/03/the-parasites-in-labours-brain/

Augustus

Election Prediction on "The Times" website:

 

Conservative  320

Labour   214

Liberal Democrat   81

 

A majority is 326, so the Conservatives would be 6 short of a majority according to this projection.

 

http://generalelection2010.timesonline.co.uk/#/GainsAndLosses

Stockholm

You neglected to mention that the "prediction" you are linking to from the Times website is from "ladbrokes". They are BOOKIES. This has no basis in polling data on correspondents reports - its all about what people who gamble are betting on. The kinds of people who gamble tend to be the cranky older white men who are the Tory core vote in the UK.

DaveW

Stockholm wrote:
You neglected to mention that the "prediction" you are linking to from the Times website is from "ladbrokes". They are BOOKIES. This has no basis in polling data on correspondents reports - its all about what people who gamble are betting on. The kinds of people who gamble tend to be the cranky older white men who are the Tory core vote in the UK.

yes, but betting is done irrespective of your personal sympathies; doesn't matter what cranky old men may like personally, they bet on a winner and/or a spread

 you may WANT, say, Sure Thing to win in the 3rd race at Belmont, but if you bet on a likeable nag you lose your money; same with election pools and other bets, which have proven to be, pound for pound, as reliable or better than fancy electoral polling and surveys

given Ladbrokes or a BBC poll, I would choose the former for reliability

 

Stockholm

They are betting based on sentiment and emotion - not on actual inside info. or facts - so take the Ladbrokes prediction with a boulder of salt.

ottawaobserver

FiveThirtyEight.com has been doing some interesting things with its prediction methodologies for a multi-party parliamentary system.

They're arguing that the traditional approach of "uniform swing" won't capture the full extent of movement in "re-aligning" elections as opposed to "normal" elections, and that you need a form of "proportional swing" instead.

They were also adjusting for retiring incumbents, until they realized that in a "throw the bums out" scenario, incumbency is worth a whole lot less.

Anyways, it's been interesting to read about how they're grappling ... as folks used to modelling 2-party races ... a very volatile multi-party situation.

Catchfire Catchfire's picture

Closing for length. Please start another thread!

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