By-elections this fall Part 2

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remind remind's picture
By-elections this fall Part 2

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Stockholm wrote:
I'd really love to hear some "inside scoop" on what is going on in Hochelaga. From following JC Rocheleau's facebook pace/website he sure seems to have an active campaign and I notice that Layton is spending another day there later this week. So far the media seems to be ignoring that byelection and treating itr as a done deal - probably just as well, if the NDP even comes in a solid second and displaces the Liberals, it will come as a surprise to the punditocracy!

remind remind's picture

Huh, wonder what is going on in NWC, as have heard nothing since the first days.

Basement Dweller

NWC Signs:

NDP is as expected.

Liberals are doing suprisingly well. Many of the big, new houses in west Coquitlam have them so that indicates wealthy East Asians are lining up behind Lee.

Conservatives, not so many signs as expected.

ottawaobserver

I'm told the Liberals are working hard in NWC, to test out their Liberalist software.  Given their candidate, they may be cutting into some of the vote they picked up last time.  Which would be good for the NDP.  In that part of the world, it killed us that the Liberal vote fell off in favour of the Conservatives last time.

In Hochelaga, I gather their strategy is to run as the "local candidate" given the visible parachutes of the other candidates.  It must be brutal getting any media attention for the by-election, given all the brou-ha-ha going on with the municipal elections right now (I guess Louise Harel's number #2 had to be relieved of his duties over some scandal).  Rocheleau has been getting some coverage (for e.g., on the radio, from attending other local events), and I guess Svend was in there today for some Pride conference or something (I didn't understand the french).  But he would be an asset in that riding, I believe, as he worked long years with Real Menard on a series of issues, and he is fluent.  I think there's a gay village in that part of Montreal, right?

On the other hand, once the municipals are over with, the effort they're putting into Hochelaga may pay off.  Lord knows they are working hard enough.

Tomorrow are the provincial by-elections in Nova Scotia, and I'm hearing we're probably good for both seats (i.e., taking both from the Tories).  That should help redirect attention next to our efforts in CCMV.

How will these allegations of government spending and alleged funny business play into all these seats, I wonder.  The story that looks like longer-term trouble is the one about who's not getting the money vs. who is, from Melissa Fung on CBC TV last night (the public rec centre didn't get the $$ in Helena Guergis' riding, while the private school did).  If that's more widespread, then they'll ahve some real problems on their hands.

Plus Rick Hillier all but called Peter MacKay a liar in his book, giving every indication that MacKay did so see Colvin's reports on torture of Afghani prisoners.

The boatload of Sri Lankan refugees set to arrive soon, however, reminds me of boats of refugees the summer of 1987.  This time, though, if the Conservatives try to push a few buttons with that issue, they'll undergo quite a bit of Jason Kenney's work in new communities.

So, the long and short of it is, I'm not sure how those issues will play out, but those are the ones I'm watching in regards to the by-elections right now.

KenS

For what its worth, I find interest in any of the by-elections in Nova Scotia [provincial and federal] unusually slight. I'll bet the vast majority of Nova Scotians will just realize today that there are provincial by-elections.

Stockholm

Another interesting sidebar to the Hochelaga byelection is the fact that its all under the radar screen what with the hotly contested municipal race. The BQ "machine" is totally sidetracked into trying to salvage Louise Harel and can't help Paille as much as usual. Also, with the latest revelation of corruption around Harel's closest associate - its becoming apparent that she is goingt down the drain. Which also means that exactly one week before the byelection, the PQ/BQ is going to be very demoralized.

Its not necessarily a bad thing for the media to be ignoring Hochelaga for now - I suspect that the more "local" the race is, the better for the NDP - so maybe its good to just fly under the radar screen and just keep pounding away at the local level.

remind remind's picture

Interesting observations, thanks OO and kens.

janfromthebruce

Like if those voters get a sense that it is a shoe-in they might stay home - make the folks go to sleep - keep them awake and in the voting booth.

ottawaobserver

Bob Fyfe (sorry, it's Fife) of CTV said on Power Play tonight that his Conservative and Liberal sources were telling him that the NDP was set to win inn both BC and NS, and that the Conservatives don't think they can take the Quebec seats.

I'm sure that's what the sources are telling him, but although it might be what we'd like to hear, we should also consider their motivations for saying so.  In other words, we shouldn't get complacent on the basis of those comments, which must surely be one of the things they're hoping for.  I'm sure it's also being said to counteract any impact of the coverage of Ignatieff's visit to CCMV yesterday as well.

remind remind's picture

Going to watch the news reports closely on this.

ottawaobserver

The NDP candidate in Montmagny-l'Islet-Kamouraska-Rivière-du-Loup has started a blog, if you're interested:

http://www.francoislapointenpd.ca

Stockholm

where did you find that blog OO? There is no link to it on the unite4change site

ottawaobserver

I'm a very good researcher !

OK, not really.  It was the website given at Pundits' Guide:  Montmagny - L'Islet - Kamouraska - Rivière-du-Loup, QC

remind remind's picture

Oh.... I love the Pundit's Guide too, I use it for everything, pretty much. I think it is my second most accessed political site.  :)

It has links to everything.

janfromthebruce

but, but but remind what about my blog - now my feelings are so hurt!!!

remind remind's picture

Oh,  jan, I am sorry, no exclusion meant, but I use PG, for so many things in a day.

It is very useful for dial up users to access things they would to do a google for. Saves a couple of steps, and you do not have to make bookmarked links of you own, either, that you have to search through for something, cause you get so many.

 

One can only read your blog a couple of times a day, hun, I am sorry. ;)

 

janfromthebruce

I was just kidding remind - I don't always put a blog post up - don't worry I understand dial-up and so no fear - my feelings are definitely not hurt.

remind remind's picture

:D

BC by-election is so over shadowed by any all olympic news, that we hear nothing else on the news.

Oh but we did get some indepth coverage of the Montreal municipal election scandal and ties to Cosa Nostra.

Now there is name I had not heard in a while

 

Basement Dweller

There are huge numbers of Liberal signs in west Coquitlam. I was on the bus and looked up a couple of street just south of the Vancouver Golf Club and practically every house had Liberal signs. Dozens of signs on just a few blocks.

No way will the Liberals win, but they certainly are doing a lot better than 11%. They will probably return to the mid/upper-20s of previous elections.

I would guess results like this:

NDP 38%

Con 30%

Lib 26%

Grn 6%

remind remind's picture

Thanks for the update BD!

Basement Dweller

You're welcome. I honestly don't get the Liberal strength (smoke and mirrors?). Their national polls are so bad but they have new strength in a riding they win once in a blue moon. I also saw a couple of canvassers with Liberal buttons in Coquitlam. The Conservative candidate came to my door when I wasn't home (and they phoned me several weeks ago).

No sign of NDP yet other than a leaflet. I'm in a swing poll, so should get NDP attention. Mind you, the NDP barely campaigned provincially and held this area.

remind remind's picture

Actually I get it,  some are just not being able to stomach the Harper cons, but they still believe the NDP is the poor man's party.

adma

Or given the particular candidacy circumstances here, the poor *white* man's party.

remind remind's picture

Now that would be a co-opting action in order to score a political point, by a white man.

V. Jara

If his twitter and facebook pages are any indication, J-C Rochelau seems to be keeping very active in Hochelaga. If babblers want to help out, here is a donation link

The NPD-QC campaign in general seems well run.

If Projet Montréal does well in the Montréal municipal elections this week, I wonder if it might generate any coat-tails for Jean-Claude in Hochelaga.

ottawaobserver

Gosh, that's certainly my hope.  That, and a complacent Bloc demoralized from a nomination fight and a disappointing municipal campaign.

I've certainly been very very impressed with the effort that's going in to the Hochelaga campaign.  The candidate is going full-tilt, has some great positioning as the one Local candidate in Hochelaga, and he seems to be getting tons of support from the folks at the Federal Caucus and federal office.

Go Jean-Claude !!!

Stockholm

janfromthebruce

wow - that is so cool Stock - make a contest. I'm very tempted.

Centrist

And from an election stock market, 'Inkling Public Marketplace', here is the market's perspective of the winner in New Westminster-Coquitlam and the NDP is leading the pack:

Which political party will win the Canadian by-election being held in New Westminster-Coquitlam on November 9?

[Current value = probability prediction will occur, e.g. $10 = 10% chance prediction will occur.]

New Democratic Party - $68.63; Conservative Party - $28.23; Liberal Party - $2.51 Other - $0.62;

http://home.inklingmarkets.com/markets/23169

 

Stockholm

Yeah, I really like the fact that they are promoting a contest between NWC and CCMV phone banks as a coast vs. coast thing. Its nice to have ways of making people working on campaigns at opposite endes of the country feel like they are part of something together. I think this kind of thing shoudl be encouraged.

Centrist

Spent about 1 1/2 hours traversing NWC yesterday to get a sense of what's going on... from Port Moody, Coquitlam, and New West - within the boundaries of NWC - every corner of the riding - every major cross street and also looked down every side street. My first impression - Is there really a by-election going on?

NWC is literally devoid of lawn signage along 90% of the roads that I travelled and looked down. With the exception of some small pockets in West Coquitlam (and even they were sparse with Fin, Lib, and Con signs), the riding overall is devoid of lawn signs. Certainly nothing akin to a federal election.

Just based upon those observations, I'd wager that turnout for NWC will be 25% - 30%. And it appears as if GOTV will be critical.   

KenS

Same basic observation about CCMV, which I have recounted in the thread on that by-election.

Stockholm

AS has been said many a time - SIGNS DON'T VOTE! for all we know people living in NWC could be getting tons of doorknocks and phone calls and there culd be high interest in the campaign - but maybe the candidates are not putting such a big emphasis on the sign war.

Basement Dweller

Centrist, that's a lot of driving around, and on Halloween of all days.Tongue out I hope you got lots of candy.

Personally, I've only heard from Conservatives so far.

My earlier prediction needs to be changed as I'm less convinced of Liberal growth:

NDP 40

Con 32

Lib 21

Grn 07

BTW the Greens have signs with the candidates face on them. None of the other parties do. I was reading the Greens candidate's bio. She runs some sort of consulting business, but I can't figure out what she does for the most part other than link businesses with technology service providers. Any business owner with half a brain could do this themselves. I wonder if she really makes much money at it. What a scam, if she does. So typical of our BS economy these days.

Stockholm

The NDP scored a major hit on the front page of La Presse today!

They are attacking Paille as a rightwing pawn of Harper's who has spearheaded privatization schemes etc... and the NDP is preparing to plaster Hochelaga with posters of a giant cheque with a Tory logo made out to Paille!!

Check out www.blocageintermittent.ca

 

 

 

ottawaobserver

Well, my hats off to the NDP campaign for this muscular, well-executed, strategic move in Hochelaga!  They have given themselves without a doubt the very best chance they could have to win this one.  I'm not saying they will, but at this stage I'm not saying they won't either.

The website identifies Paillé as:

 * having opposed a daycare centre on his street, saying it would threaten his quality of life
 * advocating the privatization of the SAQ (Societé des Alcools du Québec, for those who don't know)
 * locking out workers from the Journal de Montréal when he was VP of Quebecor
 * presiding over a slide in the value of the portfolio of the Société Générales du Financement du Québec, going from an 8% gain to a 4% loss
 * counselling Stephen Harper, for a contract value of $750,000
 * etc ...

It says Paillé wants to represent a riding he neither lives in nor understands.  The name of the website is taken from a street sign in a photo posted to Twitpic a few weeks ago, which said "Blocage Intermittent" over which the Bloc had posted one of their elections signs showing Duceppe and Paillé.

Its release was time to coincide with: the denouement after the municipal elections, and maybe to catch a bit of the Projet Montréal third-way wave, a news story this morning in La Presse (that was carried most of the day on NationalNewswatch.com), and to (well, let's not say "upstage", but maybe) set another agenda for Gilles Duceppe's news conference this morning with Paillé about the Port of Montréal, plus a whole bunch of street posters based on ... wait for it, it's brilliant ... a big blue cheque with a Conservative logo in the top left-hand corner, made out to Paillé and signed by Stephen Harper.  Apparently there are associated flyers as well.

And then the site has an orange link saying "Vous cherchez une alternative?" which of course takes you to Jean-Claude Rocheleau's site which now features a big picture of him and Jack, saying "Quelqu'un de chez nous" (roughly, "someone who's one of us").

It's E-6, giving the already-demoralized Bloc troops very little time to respond, and designed to keep up the momentum of the steady stream of french-speaking Caucus members who have been trekking down there to lend Jean-Claude a hand.

I am sending my very best karma east-ward (having already sent some cash), and I encourage everyone else to do the same.

Well done, you guys!

V. Jara

The rest of his "bio" reads:

Daniel Paillé - The parachute candidate

objective: get myself elected at any price in a riding I neither know or live in

employment:

-snip-

* caused the loss of 116 million dollars to Québec and the bankruptcy of 3500 businesses under the "Plan Paillé"

* Director of the general department for privatisation of crown corps and in favour of the privatisation of SAQ

The website also includes a link to the 2007 report Paillé prepared for Public Works Canada addressed to Québec Conservative Senator and unelected Minister Michael Fortier.

Btw, why are Duceppe and Paillé doing a press release at the Port of Montréal? That would be one of the last places on my list of where to do a photo-op after a mayoral campaign ruined by allegations of organised crime.

Here are some photo albums of the attack materials: one and two

I gotta say, some of the criticisms seem like real cheap shots, but if it gets J-C elected or at least gets the message across that Paillé is a conservative - so be it.

V. Jara

I noticed the NDP didn't use the real Conservative Party logo or Harper signature or any Canadian Government logos for their signs. :)

Wilf Day

ottawaobserver wrote:
The website identifies Paillé as:

 * having opposed a daycare centre on his street, saying it would threaten his quality of life
 * advocating the privatization of the SAQ (Societé des Alcools du Québec, for those who don't know)
 * locking out workers from the Journal de Montréal when he was VP of Quebecor
 * presiding over a slide in the value of the portfolio of the Société Générales du Financement du Québec, going from an 8% gain to a 4% loss
 * counselling Stephen Harper, for a contract value of $750,000
 * etc ...

It says Paillé wants to represent a riding he neither lives in nor understands.  The name of the website is taken from a street sign in a photo posted to Twitpic a few weeks ago, which said "Blocage Intermittent" over which the Bloc had posted one of their elections signs showing Duceppe and Paillé. . . plus a whole bunch of street posters based on ... wait for it, it's brilliant ... a big blue cheque with a Conservative logo in the top left-hand corner, made out to Paillé and signed by Stephen Harper.  Apparently there are associated flyers as well.

Brilliant, indeed.

ottawaobserver wrote:
plus a whole bunch of street posters

Indeed La Presse says there are about a hundred of them, and calls this a major stroke against the Bloc.

ottawaobserver wrote:
And then the site has an orange link saying "Vous cherchez une alternative?" which of course takes you to Jean-Claude Rocheleau's site which now features a big picture of him and Jack, saying "Quelqu'un de chez nous" (roughly, "someone who's one of us").

Can someone francophone give us the overtones of "Quelqu'un de chez nous?" Someone who's one of us, yes, but also "someone who's at home here" I think (lives here, unlike the parachutist). Anything else? I suspect it's one of those wonderful Quebecois slogans which carries a double or triple punch and is almost untranslatable?

Stockholm

I would actually object to the "quelqu'un de chez nous" line if Paille were a a non-francophone. But since both Paille and Rocheleau are pur laine Quebecois - I think we can rest assured that the line only refers to geography.

Lord Palmerston

My prediction for CCMV:

Conservatives, 41%

NDP, 29%

Liberals, 21%

Christian Heritage and Greens, 4% each

Lord Palmerston

And for New Westminster-Coquitlam:

NDP, 41%

Conservatives, 35%

Liberals, 17%

Greens, 7%

Sean in Ottawa

Smart money would hold off on predictions and base them on the H1N1 lineups in each riding. I would not attach any weight to polls from more than 24 hours ago with the auditor general's report out today and the increasing realization that the Cons have botched the H1N1 rollout. Remembering that byelections are a way to show displeasure at a government now people have a reason to show that. Depending on what else happens this week I would wait till the weekend to predict where the Cons might land-- As far as the NS riding I would not call that for the Cons for now.

NPDHochelaga

Thanks to all of you who have been following our campaign in Hochelaga. 

We appreciate the positive feedback. 

Now, if you'd really like to see us take this one over the top, feel free to make a donation here: 

https://secure.ndp.ca/riding/index.php?riding=24021&language=e

 

Merci!

ottawaobserver

Gotta love it !  Good job you guys.

janfromthebruce

Way to go Hochelaga NDP - you make us proud!

Stockholm

Read this article about the "missing in action" Tory candidate in NWC. She sounds like a brain dead zombie with nothing to say who is trying to avoid any contact with any real people or with the media.

http://thetyee.ca/News/2009/11/05/MissingTory/

ottawaobserver

Well, as with physics, so in politics: each action has a roughly equal and decidedly opposite reaction. And the Hochelaga by-election is no different.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/blogs/spector-vision/bloc-guns-for-ndp/ar...

http://www.cyberpresse.ca/actualites/quebec-canada/politique-canadienne/...

The Bloc wasted no time responding to the NDP's attacks with one of their own: this time with a rather stark poster trying to tie the NDP to the Conservatives over the long gun registry vote.

Now, the NDP would have to be naïve not to have believed that (a) there was going to be a reaction, and (b) that it was going to revolve around the long gun registry vote. So let's assume they have some kind of contingency plan ready, and wait to see what that is.

There is an All Candidates' debate scheduled for one of the radio stations today, but I'm not going to get a chance to follow it unfortunately. Still, I'd guess we'll be getting an idea about how the rest of the campaign is going to unfold from the debate there.

When you think about things though, it's nothing short of remarkable that the Bloc, which won the seat with some 50% of the vote last time, would feel the need to attack the party that came third. It's also indicative, as Norman Spector points out, of just "how far the fortunes of Michael Ignatieff and the Liberals have fallen in the past several months, even before the Coderre crash-up".

Stockholm

I'll be curious to see what happens. I guess the NDP should feel flattered that the BQ feels the need to go on the attack in what ought to be just about the safest BQ seat in Quebec and it also speaks volumes that the NDP and the BQ are each attacking the other for being somehow linked to the Tories - while the Liberals are completely out of it. I would also be curious as to how many voters in Hochelaga actually see registering long guns as being all that important an issue to them (its one thing to have an opinion on something, its another thing to care that much about it).

I'm waiting for the next shoe to drop and for the BQ to "accuse" the NDP of supporting multiculturalism and not taking a hard enough line against any "reasonable accommodations" of minorities.

Doug

We can but hope.

ottawaobserver

Monday actually.

DTA:  Sorry, that was in response to V.Jara's comment that voting day is Sunday.  The municipals were on Sunday last week.  Voting day in the federal byelections is on Monday, although if Steven Fletcher's new bill passed (I don't think it did yet) there would ahve been advance polls on the Sunday.

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