Federal Election Talk (13)

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takeitslowly

unfortunately i get the feeling out there that many people are fine with harper and we are not going to see progressive change..even with the ndp winning more seats

 

its unfortunate..i really believe many many canadians dont care about politics and dont care about the plight of the poor..i really do. they dont care if they misinformed, they tuned out. so regardless of the eletion results, we have a society that is increasingly unequal and is the "have" population is not worried or concerned about the "have not".

 

nothing to be cheerful about.

gyor

According to the Globe and Mail one of our candiates in Quebec is celebrating a little early. As is a trip to vegas baby vegas! They also make a big deal about the fact that we have an oddly large group of students who may get elected to parliment as well, one who appears to be more interested in comic books then election. I think it scares them that ordinary people instead of just elites may get into the house of commons.

Anonymouse

The ad campaign is going to be critical to close out this campaign. That and every New Democrat in the country putting their shoulder to the wheel.

Anonymouse

The media elites invite a populist backlash if they go too hard against the NDP. Shades of Rob Ford and Naheed Nenshi.

jimmyjim

gyor wrote:
According to the Globe and Mail one of our candiates in Quebec is celebrating a little early. As is a trip to vegas baby vegas! They also make a big deal about the fact that we have an oddly large group of students who may get elected to parliment as well, one who appears to be more interested in comic books then election. I think it scares them that ordinary people instead of just elites may get into the house of commons.

I would love for the media to start looking at individual Candidates. Both the Liberals and Cons got some crazies out there. They better be careful they might just swing this election out way. 

 

Can't wait to see the someone ask the NDP so they can say "We vetted her, she is a signal mother who is working to make a living. She however is a get candidate and is NOT a white supremest."

 

SRB

I think that story about the Vegas trip by the politically disengaged candidate is potentially damaging this late in the campaign.  I hope the NDP has a better reply to it than the one I read in the Globe article, because it plays into other parties' criticism that the NDP is not ready and that it has jokers running for it.

Looking on the bright side of the news today, I am cautiously happy about the Angus Reid numbers.

Anonymouse wrote:

The ad campaign is going to be critical to close out this campaign. That and every New Democrat in the country putting their shoulder to the wheel.

I agree with that, especially the candidate for Berthier--Maskinongé - Quebec. She needs to come back from her vacation and look like she's working very hard.

 

Wilf Day

Wilf Day wrote:

EKOS shows a jump in Atlantic Canada. But when I put those numbers in the UBC Forecaster I get only four more seats:

St. John's South--Mount Pearl

Dartmouth--Cole Harbour

South Shore--St. Margaret's

Halifax West

And very close in Kings--Hants.

And two points behind in Sydney--Victoria.

Are there some local winners on top of this? 

As to Central Nova: if you drop the Green vote down to 4.5%, and transfer the presumed Liberal votes like Liberals elsewhere in Atlantic Canada, the projected NDP vote goes up another 4.6%, to 34.1%. Still well behind Peter MacKay's projected 42.3%. (But I hope the projection is wrong.) 

 

ravenj

You know the NDP is going places when the Wall Street Journal writes an article about it: Small Party Gains Clout in Canada.

KenS

Sorry folks- but that was inevitable. Its the downside of a campaign that wildly exceeds expectations. Two weeks ago you would jump for joy to have this as a problem.

Anonymouse

Well at least the NDP isn't running white supremacists in QC or Tea Party activists in Manitoba or people belitting "rape" in BC and Alberta or Tamil Tiger hagiographers in Ontario

Wilf Day

SRB wrote:
I think that story about the Vegas trip by the politically disengaged candidate is potentially damaging this late in the campaign.  I hope the NDP has a better reply to it than the one I read in the Globe article, because it plays into other parties' criticism that the NDP is not ready and that it has jokers running for it. . . . especially the candidate for Berthier--Maskinongé. She needs to come back from her vacation and look like she's working very hard.

Not jokers. Phantoms:

Quote:
We speak here of NDP candidates in the counties of Berthier-Maskinongé (Ruth Ellen Brosseau), Saint-Maurice-Champlain (Lise Saint-Denis) and Bas-Richelieu-Nicolet-Bécancour (Krista Lalonde), considered as phantom candidates.

Since Ruth Ellen Brosseau is the assistant manager of a pub in Hull, a last-minute parachute candidate into a seat three hours drive away, I don't know if the trip to Las Vegas makes much difference.  

samuelolivier

I look at all the 75 candidates and there are about 8-10 phantom candidates. But honestly I wish they would have at least ask her if she would be in Canada for the whole campaign. I understand that having 30-40 strong candidates was a big challenge. Then maybe 20 good enough candidates and something like 10 quiet/phantom ones, but a candidate going to Las Vegas less than 1 week prior to the election date. That's disapointing.

gyor

Ellen is single mom who probably who dropped her name on the ballot as a favour to the NDP never thinking she could win. I don't even know if she will. If she does there is this mischievous part of myself that will love it. Besides she is an ordinary person, not a perfessional politician and goodness knows Ottawa could use a few more of those.

samuelolivier

gyor wrote:
Ellen is single mom who probably who dropped her name on the ballot as a favour to the NDP never thinking she could win. I don't even know if she will. If she does there is this mischievous part of myself that will love it. Besides she is an ordinary person, not a perfessional politician and goodness knows Ottawa could use a few more of those.
One of those? We have no idea what kind of person she is. The only thing we know for sure is that she is in Las Vegas at the moment while we are in the last  days of the campaign and that she put her name on the ballot thinking there was no chance she would get elected (I also doubt she will). I totally agree about having a diversity of person elected to reflect our diversity, I am just sad if this story is going across the media in Quebec.

Arthur Cramer Arthur Cramer's picture

I hate that Chantal Heibert. She said that the NDP is only here about Jack Layton, and that if you take him away in a couple of years, the NDP will be crushed. What is her problem?

takeitslowly

i just dont have a good feeling about this election, i feel like the conservative will win suprises seats in ontario and the GTA due to the declining support of the Liberals..i dont feel anyone is politically engaged in toronto, or Ontario...the ndp surge wont catch on here and it wont be enough to win ndp seats..only lose more to the Tories..so sad..

janfromthebruce

Arthur - Heibert and others are in complete and utter shock! They don't understand because they are elitests. One thing I seem to notice is that Jack & the NDP are not getting "bad press" by the National post or Sun Media - well maybe not the Sun Media. Jack & Olivia getting on Fox News North was good - remember a lot of people who we suggest should be voting NDP but don't are often the same people who are watching those channels and reading those newspapers.

 

Arthur Cramer wrote:

I hate that Chantal Heibert. She said that the NDP is only here about Jack Layton, and that if you take him away in a couple of years, the NDP will be crushed. What is her problem?

______________________________________________________________________________________ Our kids live together and play together in their communities, let's have them learn together too!

Doug

Arthur Cramer wrote:

I hate that Chantal Heibert. She said that the NDP is only here about Jack Layton, and that if you take him away in a couple of years, the NDP will be crushed. What is her problem?

 

There's something to that - at least right now. The campaign has been very much emphasizing Jack and saying little about other NDP candidates. You can't argue against this for not having worked, but it could cause problems later.

janfromthebruce

The NDP is doing great and what the pollsters are saying is that the NDP is taking votes from the right and the left. This is great news & no need for the glumness!

 

takeitslowly wrote:

i just dont have a good feeling about this election, i feel like the conservative will win suprises seats in ontario and the GTA due to the declining support of the Liberals..i dont feel anyone is politically engaged in toronto, or Ontario...the ndp surge wont catch on here and it wont be enough to win ndp seats..only lose more to the Tories..so sad..

______________________________________________________________________________________ Our kids live together and play together in their communities, let's have them learn together too!

NorthReport

My fellow New Democrat,
The election is days away - and I'm coming to Metro Vancouver for one final, massive rally this Saturday.
I want you to be there.
Date: Saturday, April 30
Time: 12:30pm
Location: First Avenue Film Studio
4088 1st Ave, Burnaby
Southwest Corner of 1st & Gilmore
Don't miss a special performance by musical guest: Wil
Come out and celebrate the momentum of this historic New Democrat campaign.
We've never been closer to the Canada we want. One where families come first, and no one is left behind.
Together, we can do it.
Jack Layton
Leader,
Canada's New Democrats
Find us on Facebook

ghoris

I'll be there!

takeitslowly

I think Toronto is a conservative city (Rob Ford) ...and the trend right now is to go conservative..so i dont buy the idea of an NDP surge here...we will see.

gyor

I think the fact that the NDP is eating into Tory support as well is what is got the Globe and Mail training so many of its guns on Jack right now, they are in panick mode and far more dangerous then the other party leaders. Still it maybe too late to stop the surge.

thorin_bane

Good news the bank is warning against the NDP...heck if the banks hate it it has to be good. the CBC did a report on it. Of course our business elite who compramise less than 20% will shit a brick, but regular folks should note this and encourage them to vote.

Arthur Cramer Arthur Cramer's picture

Iggy says the NDP are a bunch of Boy Scouts, not ready to govern. What a jerk!

@janfromthebruce;

Thanks for the kind reply. That Chantal Heiber, what a jerkette! Lol.

I know that the NDP wouldn't be here with Jack. But, I don't think if the NDP does well that they won't be able to survive when Jack retires. I guess that is my point. I think Heibert is so dam smug for thinking that. Ed B is retired and we were supposed to whither away.

Well, that didn't happen either.

I am very cautiously optimistic. Keep working folks, there is nothing that says the results are already written in stone. Don't let yourself keep from remembering that. Keep you eye on the ball!

JeffWells

Suddenly the Liberal chattering class is talking up merger with the NDP after the campaign. Thanks, but no thanks.

Lachine Scot

There's no point hating political commentators like Chantal Hebert.  She analyses stuff year round and just tries to spin it as she sees it.  No point in shooting the messenger if you don't like the message.  She's just as harsh on all the other parties, no?

bekayne
adma

Doug wrote:

Arthur Cramer wrote:

I hate that Chantal Heibert. She said that the NDP is only here about Jack Layton, and that if you take him away in a couple of years, the NDP will be crushed. What is her problem?

 

There's something to that - at least right now. The campaign has been very much emphasizing Jack and saying little about other NDP candidates. You can't argue against this for not having worked, but it could cause problems later.

And a further potential "crushing" factor might be if Maxime Bernier replaced Harper as Conservative leader.

Steve_Shutt Steve_Shutt's picture

Hebert was the one last week confirming that Quebec can and does move en masse when Ditchburn was skeptical. I have no problem with the doubt and disbelief in the MSM, it has allowed the wave to continue to build without looking like a threat to the PTBs. You couldn't have scripted this better.

ghoris

Watching the National this evening, I was struck by the total absurdity of having a Tory hack and a Liberal hack on the insider panel talking about the NDP surge, but nobody from the NDP! What a farce!

That said, I would have given my first born if Mansbridge had turned to David Herle and said "Well David, you have lots of experience running Liberal campaigns into the ground - what are your thoughts on the Liberal nosedive?"

Anonymouse

I guess the ad line about imagine a leader that "really cares" was a good idea as Layton is now going head-to-head with Stephen Harper. The "really cares" line could attract a lot of Liberal female supports and put Harper on the run.

melovesproles

Wow, they sure are attacking the NDP!

I admit I've often been a big critic of Layton and the NDP but I tip my hat to him.  I'm still a little skeptical that he's going to pull it off but I recognize I don't fully realize what works if what the polls suggest is true.

I like the "imagine" ad better than the previous one.  I like that he took out all the repetive "I"s and reused the strongest part of the last ad which was the ending about how Layton is a determined fighter.

A lot of this hinges on Quebec and that would be amazing if they took a leadership role on this.  The political IQ of that province is WAY ahead of the ROC.

 

Anonymouse

The main thing Layton can do to settle down "the markets" is to make it clear that he will telegraph any moves he might take in government well in advance, so that the markets would have time to take it in, adjust, and if necessary provide feedback to any NDP government about changes that might need to be made. It's part of Layton's message about working together.

NorthReport

I agree - Layton should jump all over this in the dying days of the campaign.

Subtle

 

 

http://accidentaldeliberations.blogspot.com/2011/04/subtle.html

Anonymouse

Anonymouse wrote:

I guess the ad line about imagine a leader that "really cares" was a good idea as Layton is now going head-to-head with Stephen Harper. The "really cares" line could attract a lot of Liberal female supports and put Harper on the run.

To add, given the health care pitch, this positive ad doubles well as an attack when the race becomes Layton-Harper. Bravo NDP. This was well planned.

bekayne
Ken Burch

Interesting.  Those jumps in turnout are enough to swing a number of marginals.

Ken Burch

Not sure what THIS means, but the number of advance ballots is DOWN by over 3,000 in Thornhill.

KenS

Whether or not any or some of the parties in a particular riding are making an effort to get their voters to the advance polls- the riding totals will be very sensitive to that.

And just notions that spread in particular communities, demographic oddities, anything really might drive wild changes from riding to riding, or one election campaign to another.

David Young

I love the line that Jane Tabor had on Canada A.M. about the Liberal campaign:

'Michael Ignatief has only one card left to play...his Green Card, when he goes back to teaching at Harvard!

 

edmundoconnor

Ah, got to love the Star. No matter that the candidate is running in Don Valley West, which is pretty much dead zone country for the NDP, that she's clearly a Name On Ballot candidate, and that she has very little chance of winning in the midst of an Oliphant v Carmichael grudge match, she's a bad, bad person.

I'm actually going to cut the Conservative in Toronto-Danforth some slack. She's obviously taking one for the team, running against Jack himself, and I'm not really surprised she has no campaign to speak of.

The fact that Walkom knocks the NDP while letting the Tory slide off the hook is telling.

If the worst the media has on the NDP is a couple of candidates took vacations, or they're hard to track down, I'd much rather have that than a proven white supremacist (Liberal) or someone who aches to make abortion illegal (Conservative).

Left Turn Left Turn's picture

The advanced poll turnout is not necessarily an indicator of increased turnout on election day. Though the advanced polls in the 2009 BC provincial election showed a significant increase in turnout, the total turnout in the election was the lowest percentage in BC history. That said, the number of "vote mobs" we have seen over the course of this campaign would suggest an increased turnout overall.

@Ken Burch

The Advance poll turnouts blog post says the following about the low turnout in Thornhill:

Quote:
Note: the riding at bottom of the list, Thornhill, saw a larger-than-normal advance turnout in 2008 because election day that fell on a Jewish holiday. Thornhill has the largest Jewish population of any riding.

edmundoconnor

Ken Burch wrote:

Interesting.  Those jumps in turnout are enough to swing a number of marginals.

The jump in the vote in Saskatoon--Rosetown--Biggar (1,348) is especially ominous for Kelly Block. I rather suspect the Nettie Wiebe campaign has got out the vote in advance polls.

A_J

Doug wrote:

Arthur Cramer wrote:

I hate that Chantal Heibert. She said that the NDP is only here about Jack Layton, and that if you take him away in a couple of years, the NDP will be crushed. What is her problem?

There's something to that - at least right now. The campaign has been very much emphasizing Jack and saying little about other NDP candidates. You can't argue against this for not having worked, but it could cause problems later.

I see more signs for Jack Layton than I do for my local candidate.

Heck, the latest NDP campaign is "I'm Voting Jack Layton" (not "I'm Voting NDP" or "I'm Voting [local NDP candidate]")

Hopefully this doesn't confuse too many people outside of Toronto-Danforth . . . or result in too many spoiled ballots for a write-in candidate who doesn't really exist.

I don't see Mulcair or anyone else in the current caucus engendering this same personality cult, so like Doug said - this could cause problems down the road.

SRB

A_J wrote:

I see more signs for Jack Layton than I do for my local candidate.

Heck, the latest NDP campaign is "I'm Voting Jack Layton" (not "I'm Voting NDP" or "I'm Voting [local NDP candidate]")

Hopefully this doesn't confuse too many people outside of Toronto-Danforth . . . or result in too many spoiled ballots for a write-in candidate who doesn't really exist.

I don't see Mulcair or anyone else in the current caucus engendering this same personality cult, so like Doug said - this could cause problems down the road.

That's partly a media creation, I think. The media fosters leader-based politics. And of course the party would play towards one of its obvious strengths. And I do think that Mulcair has a lot of prominence in Quebec: if you watch the Quebec ads in French, Mulcair is shown right along with Jack Layton.

Elsewhere, Paul Dewar has come out as a party spokesperson and criticized Conservative misinformation in one of their ads.  He also has his own ads which only show him and don't show Jack. The party is good at sending out New Democrat voices to debates, T.V. appearances etc.

I think we have a great deal of bench strength, and hopefully with more seats in the house our critics will build up their own profiles even more. Jack has always seemed to be generous about showcasing NDP candidates and mentioning them by name whenever he can etc.  He gave a great plug for Rob Moir to the media in a scrum after a walkabout in Saint John.

Having a popular leader is on balance a good thing to have, provided he uses his platform to bring forward issues and shares the spotlight often.  We'll see.

 

adma

edmundoconnor wrote:
Ah, got to love the Star. No matter that the candidate is running in Don Valley West, which is pretty much dead zone country for the NDP, that she's clearly a Name On Ballot candidate, and that she has very little chance of winning in the midst of an Oliphant v Carmichael grudge match, she's a bad, bad person.

Still, there is something odd, given that David Sparrow gave a serious not-just-name-on-ballot effort (all for naught; but, still) in the '08 byelection-turned-election in this very seat...

JeffWells

So many things running in the NDP's favour right now, but I think the biggest is that the campaign gave voters a positive reason to vote. The new voters aren't being scared into voting NDP, they're coming over in part because it makes them feel good and they want to be a part of something good. Going negative against that may not be smart, but what else can Liberals do now? Conservatives at least can offer a counter vision of Canada, but the Liberals can only offer their counterfeit.

Arthur Cramer Arthur Cramer's picture

Winnipeg North advance poll numbers are way up; bye bye Lamoureux!

NorthReport

I agree about that Sun News retraction - who do they think they are kidding. Laughing

C'est maintenant Harper contre Layton
Cela ne garantit pas des sièges, mais ça donne une base militante et organisationnelle.
http://www.cyberpres...tion_ECRAN1POS1

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