Federal political polling - started March 22, 2011

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Lens Solution

I just sent one of the above links to Warren Kinsella and let him know that not all of us are fooled by Ipsos-Reid and that in reality it was Nanos that was the most reliable pollster in 04 and 06 and Harris-Decima in 08.

NorthReport

The EKOS poll will be be quite different from the IR poll.

I wonder when Nanos Research will next release a poll - the last one had C- 39%, L- 28%, and the NDP at 20%

Stockholm

Peter Mansbridge said that the CBC/Ekos poll will be out at 5pm and it will show the gap to be "much closer" than the Ipsos poll.

Sean in Ottawa

You won't like the poll-- Ekos today

Blue Liars 35.3

Red Liars 28.1

NDP 14.2

Greens 10.6

BQ 9.7

Other 2.1

Centrist
Michael Moriarity Michael Moriarity's picture

I have a question for those of you who are polling experts. Does the standard voting intention question change during the campaign period? I mean, between elections, it always seems to be something like "If an election were held today, which party would you vote for?". But during a campaign, it would seem more sensible to ask something like "Which party do you intend to vote for in the upcoming election, and how firm is your intention?" Is this in fact what happens?

Sean in Ottawa

There is no standard. They have to publish the question but they can make it whatever they want.

JKR

Ontario:
Con: 38.7
Lib: 33.4
NDP: 16.3
Grn:9.7

Quebec:
BQ: 39.7
Con: 18.5
Lib: 18.0
NDP: 12.8
Grn: 8.6

Party Ceilings
Con: 44.7
Lib: 43.0
NDP: 34.6
Grn: 21.8
BQ: 13.2

Direction of Government:
Wrong Direction: 47.9
Right Direction: 41.7
Don't Know: 10.4

Lens Solution

Sean in Ottawa wrote:

You won't like the poll-- Ekos today

Blue Liars 35.3

Red Liars 28.1

NDP 14.2

Greens 10.6

BQ 9.7

Other 2.1

Green Party looks too high.

Sean in Ottawa

Let's see the polls one week in -- I think they are going to move substantially. Wish I knew which direction.

Stockholm

Looking over the Ekos numbers I think its is very skewed by some absurd results outside of Quebec and Ontario (where the numbers seem reasonable). They have NDP support in Atlantic Canada at 6.8%??? I know some polls have found the NDP down a bit in Atlantic from the 26% they got in 2008 - but every other poll has shown at worst high teens and more often low 20s. This is as absurd as seeing a poll showing the Tories about to be wiped out in rural Alberta!  Speaking of Alberta - I know its never going to be an NDP stronghold - but the Ekos numbers for Alberta are ridiculous! they have the NDP at 3.9% (Ipsos has the NDP at 17% there so go figure). They also have the Liberals surging to 31.9% in Alberta - that would be the best Liberal showing in Alberta since the 1950s and would represent a tripling of their vote there since the last election. Does anyone seriously think that there would IGGY-MANIA sweeping Alberta but leaving the rest of the country unaffected.

These numbers are an embarrassment to the polling industry. Its like a repeat of that infamous case when Strategic Counsel had Green support in Quebec at 24% one survey!

Lens Solution

Darrell Dexter is down in the latest Nova Scotia poll, so it's perhaps true that the NDP is down in the Atlantic federally as a result of the spillover, but I agree the Atlantic numbers are much too low.

Perhaps Allan Gregg was right.  Polls in Canada are the most unreliable they've been in 30 years.

Stockholm

First of all, Nova Scotia is only a third of Atlantic Canada and second of all - the Dexter gov't may be "down" compared to when they won the election, but the Nova Scotia NDP is still at a respectable 34%! 6% federally is ridiculous. I remember last year Ekos had one blip where the NDP skyrocketed to 45% and the Liberals fell to single digits and then the next wave everything recitified itself.

Life, the unive...

Ipsos+Ekos=slanted

Rob8305

This is just about a carbon copy of their March 14 poll. 35-28/14 then. 35/28/14 now.

NorthReport

Both these polls IR for the Cons & EKOS for the Libs were kinda easy to predict.

Last election Harper started campaiging in December while the Liberals twiddled their thumbs, and they never looked back.

It seems that the  Cons strategy is the same this time with a little bit of help from IR.

It says a lot when on the day the Con government is brought down for the first time in history on a Non-Confidence Contempt of Parliament vote, the media wanted to focus on was a coalition or Jack's health.

Time to go on the attack starting with this tomorrow at Harper's presser:

 Text of Stephen Harper's 2004 letter signed by Layton and Duceppe

September 9, 2004

Her Excellency the Right Honourable Adrienne Clarkson,

C.C., C.M.M., C.O.M., C.D.

Governor General

Rideau Hall

1 Sussex Drive

Ottawa, Ontario K1A 0A1

Excellency,

As leaders of the opposition parties, we are well aware that, given the Liberal minority government, you could be asked by the Prime Minister to dissolve the 38th Parliament at any time should the House of Commons fail to support some part of the government's program.

We respectfully point out that the opposition parties, who together constitute a majority in the House, have been in close consultation. We believe that, should a request for dissolution arise this should give you cause, as constitutional practice has determined, to consult the opposition leaders and consider all of your options before exercising your constitutional authority.

Your attention to this matter is appreciated.

Sincerely,

Hon. Stephen Harper, P.C., M.P.

Leader of the Opposition

Leader of the Conservative Party of Canada

Gilles Duceppe, M.P.

Leader of the Bloc Quebecois

Jack Layton, M.P.

Leader of the New Democratic Party

 

 

 

 

 

http://www.winnipegfreepress.com/canada/breakingnews/text-of-stephen-har...

 

gyor

Lens Solution wrote:

Sean in Ottawa wrote:

You won't like the poll-- Ekos today

Blue Liars 35.3

Red Liars 28.1

NDP 14.2

Greens 10.6

BQ 9.7

Other 2.1

Green Party looks too high.

Wait, Ekos has the greens too high!?! Is anyone surprised? everyone predicted they would. Those two are the worst pollsters. Leger had something different too in the last poll. Next there will be another poll that says something different.

Thankfully without all the horse race talk polls should have less influence then usual expectually if they are argueing over the numbers.

Stockholm

I was watching the journalists panel on Powerplay of La Presse mentioned that there would be a CROP poll in tomorrow's paper that would have "devastating" news for the Liberals in Quebec. He said that the NDP is still at 20% in Quebec and that the Liberals are at "half" of that - in other words Liberal support in Quebec must be as low as 9, 10 or 11%!! 

Lens Solution

If it's as low as that then that is probably a bit of a rougue poll too.  I doubt Liberal support in Quebec would go that low.

Boom Boom Boom Boom's picture

I think Ignatieff himself has zero appeal to Quebecers. Too freaking elitist. Even Brian Mulroney looks humble next to Ignatieff, and that's no mean feat.

Stockholm

No one could be more "elitist" than Pierre Elliott Trudeau and look at how well he did in Quebec!

I agree that its hard to believe that the Liberals could be as low as 10% in Quebec - but this is a poll of 1,000 people - not a teeny-weeny Atlantic sub-sample in a national poll. I wonder if Martin Cauchon is ready to jump off a cliff after he opens his newspaper tomorrow morning!

West Coast Greeny

Boom Boom wrote:

I think Ignatieff himself has zero appeal to Quebecers. Too freaking elitist. Even Brian Mulroney looks humble next to Ignatieff, and that's no mean feat.

Mulroney was the Conservatives' greatest Quebec success ever ... until 1990 ... but you get the point.

West Coast Greeny

Stockholm wrote:

No one could be more "elitist" than Pierre Elliott Trudeau and look at how well he did in Quebec!

I agree that its hard to believe that the Liberals could be as low as 10% in Quebec - but this is a poll of 1,000 people - not a teeny-weeny Atlantic sub-sample in a national poll. I wonder if Martin Cauchon is ready to jump off a cliff after he opens his newspaper tomorrow morning!

Everything is in play on those kinds of numbers. They must have lost a chunk of thier "fortress" in West Montreal to poll that low.

Stockholm

Maybe its time for the NDP to start heavily targetting Westmount-Ville Marie again!

ghoris

West Coast Greeny wrote:

Everything is in play on those kinds of numbers. They must have lost a chunk of thier "fortress" in West Montreal to poll that low.

Or it's all they have left.  Either way, this is shaping up to be a "save the furniture" campaign for the Grits in Quebec.

bekayne

Stockholm wrote:

I was watching the journalists panel on Powerplay of La Presse mentioned that there would be a CROP poll in tomorrow's paper that would have "devastating" news for the Liberals in Quebec. He said that the NDP is still at 20% in Quebec and that the Liberals are at "half" of that - in other words Liberal support in Quebec must be as low as 9, 10 or 11%!! 

Last CROP poll had both at 16%. There's also a Leger poll tomorrow.

alan smithee alan smithee's picture

The cons will NOT get 25% of Quebec....Unless something extraordinary comes about..Like a pig flying.

The Liberals at 9 or 10%...LOL!

But La Presse is a right wing rag so there's no surprise.

WyldRage

alan smithee wrote:

But La Presse is a right wing rag so there's no surprise.

 

La Presse is the Liberal/Power Corp/Desmarais journal. They're not so much right-wing, but rather extremely status quo.

The Journal de Montréal is the right-wing, populist rag (if not downright demagogic). It's the voice of the Pierre-Karl Péladeau, the libertarian who created Sun TV. They also publish "La Elgrably", Québec's very own Ann Coulter.

Le Devoir is as close to the left-wing as you will get in Québec mainstream journals, and also generaly sovereignist (they often go hand-in-hand in Québec). It's a very short journal, but the journalism is of the highest quality you'll find in Québec.

wage zombie

Are there are Canadian sites that are aggregating poll data?

Are there any active seat forecaster sites?

ghoris

Here are a couple of suggestions:

threehundredeight.com

DemocraticSPACE

Of these two, I find the latter is usually better at fine-tuning regional and national polling results to take into account local factors.

wage zombie

Thanks.  This is what I was looking for.

Do babblers find these are good resources, or are they simply the best of what little is out there?

JeffWells

And now Angus Reid:

 

CON: 39

LIB: 25

NDP: 19

BQ: 10

GRN: 7

 

Pretty much the same as their last one a month ago.

 

http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/politics/article/962129--tories-on-br...

Lens Solution

Stockholm wrote:

I agree that its hard to believe that the Liberals could be as low as 10% in Quebec - but this is a poll of 1,000 people - not a teeny-weeny Atlantic sub-sample in a national poll. I wonder if Martin Cauchon is ready to jump off a cliff after he opens his newspaper tomorrow morning!

Is anyone else finding it hard to know which polls are accurate?  The NDP is behind the Liberals in both the EKOS poll and the Ipsos-Reid poll, and is also behind the Liberals in Gatineau and Hull according to this week's Segma poll.

Stockholm

...and now a mega-poll by Leger with a sample size of 3,523

 

CPC - 39%

Libs - 23%

NDP - 19%

BQ - 9%

Green - 7%

Other - 1%

http://www.ledevoir.com/documents/pdf/SondagepancanLM-Le%20Devoir.pdf

Incidentally, when I add up these numbers I get 98% and when I take percentages not including the undecided and not voting and do my own calculation I actually get the Tories at 39.5% and the NDP at 19.8%

The NDP numbers are very nice everywhere except for Man/Sask (you can't win'em all) and in contrast to that absurd Ekos poll that had the NDP at 6% in Atlantic Canada - this one has triple the sample size there and has the NDP at 25%!

 

bekayne

Stockholm wrote:

...and now a mega-poll by Leger with a sample size of 3,523

 

CPC - 39%

Libs - 23%

NDP - 19%

BQ - 9%

Green - 7%

Other - 1%

http://www.ledevoir.com/documents/pdf/SondagepancanLM-Le%20Devoir.pdf

Incidentally, when I add up these numbers I get 98% and when I take percentages not including the undecided and not voting and do my own calculation I actually get the Tories at 39.5% and the NDP at 19.8%

The NDP numbers are very nice everywhere except for Man/Sask (you can't win'em all) and in contrast to that absurd Ekos poll that had the NDP at 6% in Atlantic Canada - this one has triple the sample size there and has the NDP at 25%!

 

Con  +3

NDP  +1

BQ    -1

Gr     -3

 

 

Lens Solution

According to the Leger poll, more people blame the opposition for the election than blame the government.

I hope that's not a bad sign.

bekayne

JeffWells wrote:

And now Angus Reid:

 

CON: 39

LIB: 25

NDP: 19

BQ: 10

GRN: 7

 

Pretty much the same as their last one a month ago.

 

http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/politics/article/962129--tories-on-br...

Lib  +2

NDP +2

BQ   +1

Gr    -2

The article refers to a poll one month ago. My numbers refer to the poll done two weeks after that

 

Stockholm

Its not by that big a margin and the fact is that it was the opposition that committed the actual "act" of voting non-confidence. I'm actually pleasantly surprised that the % of people "blaming" the opposition parties for the election isn't even higher...and I'm not sure how I would answer that question. I don't BLAME the opposition for an election - I'm HAPPY that the government was brought down and I CREDIT the opposition with being responsible!

bekayne

Why do pollsters & the media treat the previous poll done by a pollster like it's classified information?

Lens Solution

I notice the Leger poll has the following numbers for Quebec:

BQ  39

Con 22

Lib  18

NDP  16

 

Why are the Cons 2nd?

NorthReport

The Leger Marketing poll is showing the NDP within 4% of the Liberals across Canada and the margin of error is 1.7%.

JKR

Stockholm wrote:

...and now a mega-poll by Leger with a sample size of 3,523

CPC - 39%

Libs - 23%

NDP - 19%

BQ - 9%

Green - 7%

Other - 1%

http://www.ledevoir.com/documents/pdf/SondagepancanLM-Le%20Devoir.pdf

 

Ontario
Con: 41 (up 2 from 2008 election)
Lib: 31 (down 3)
NDP: 19 (up 1)
Grn: 7 (down 1)

Ontario will decide the election. The McGuinty's government's unpopularity seems to be helping the Conservatives but the race is still similar to 2008.

 

Quebec
BQ: 39
CON: 22
Lib: 18
NDP: 16
Grn: 4

And the Charest government's unpopularity seems to be helping the BQ.

 

 

JKR

It's amazing how our unfair FPTP electoral system is warping this election.

If we had PR/fair voting the NDP would be guaranteed at least 50 seats and the Conservatives would have no chance of getting a fake FPTP majority. As it is the Conservatives could easily get a majority and the NDP could easily get less then half the seats their public support warrants.

If the NDP gets robbed again this election by our FPTP system, NDP'ers should get together with Green supporters and take this injustice to court.

JKR

NorthReport wrote:

The Leger Marketing poll is showing the NDP within 4% of the Liberals across Canada and the margin of error is 1.7%.

Among decided voters the gap is only 3%.

Decided Voters

Con: 34
Lib: 20
NDP: 17
BQ: 8
Grn: 6

 

The only problem is that the NDP's numbers are pretty evenly spread out between the regions. They're only in contention in BC where its Con-41, NDP-28. That might keep them from winning a lot of seats that they should be entitled to if we had a fair voting system.

As it is, the NDP might want to concentrate on doing better in one region. Playing regions off each other has served the Conservatives and BQ very well. If the NDP is going to do well in the game of FPTP, they might have to follow suit.

nicky

At his press conference this morning Ignatieff was asked about a poll that put the Liberals at 11% in Quebec.

And the Globe says:

 

A new poll in Quebec, however, is not giving the Liberals much optimism. It shows them struggling, running behind even the NDP. So there's a lot of work to be done there.

 

 

Does anyone have details of this poll?

Krago
JeffWells

From the CROP poll:

 

Quote:

Among francophones, which determine the outcome in the vast majority of the 75 Quebec ridings, the Liberal Party receives a meager 7% - far behind the Bloc Quebecois (44%), the Conservatives and the NDP (tied at 21 %).

 

I think, if the Lberals really are this weak, the NDP strength is going to be squandered, since Conservative vote is concentrated in Quebec City and the BQ will be running away with it everywhere else.

On the other hand, I don't see a breakout of the Montreal numbers. The NDP could make small gains by a Liberal collapse in the city.

 

Stockholm

I'd love to see the media start talking about how the Liberals are in danger of falling behind the Green Party in francophone Quebec!

The opening for the NDP if the Liberals really go into free-fall is to start hoovering up some of the more progressive anglophones and allophones from the Liberal camp. Once upon a time the Liberals were the default federalist party in Quebec - now they are caught in a pincer movement with the CPC and the NDP cannibalizing that old "we have no choice but to vote Liberal because we're federalists" segment.

Numbers like these also indicate that Justin Trudeau would almost certainly lose in Papineau too.

alan smithee alan smithee's picture

I don't put too much faith in polls.

I think they only serve to influence the public.

The Liberals at 11% in Quebec?...How did that happen?...What did the Liberals do to lose 50% of their support in a 2 month period?

And what have the Conservatives done to gain 8 points?

I think it's a safe bet that the Cons will maintain their seats in the regions (Sherbrooke and Quebec City/Lac St Jean etc..) and I think they're counting on Larry Smith to win Lac St Louis and win TMR which would be the first conservative seats on the island of Montreal in almost 20 years.

The Cons think that their unwavering love for Israel will win the jewish vote in Montreal...We'll see.

But Ignatieff is an idiot...If Liberal support is nose diving,why is this guy so opposed to a coalition government?..Because a coalition government would put the balance of power in the hands of Layton and Duceppe?

It's looking like I'll be voting for the Bloc...I live in a Liberal stronghold riding and their only real competition is the Bloc...But if by some really strange turn of events come about and the Tories come out of nowhere in my riding,I'll have to throw my vote on which ever party can stem that tide..I don't care who.

I also hope the youth vote wakes from their apathetic coma...That would strengthen the BQ and weaken the Cons....I hope but I'm not holding my breath on the youth vote.

There's 5 weeks to go and anything can happen....The Cons can't and won't run on their record,they have to rely on attack ads.

The opposition need to counter these attack ads with ads that expose the Cons record,their penchant for pissing away tax dollars on ideological issues,etc....

The opposition needs to take off the gloves and attack the Cons on their record...Please gawd,let ONE of the opposition parties be smart enough to do that..PLEASE!

nicky

It would be interesting to see a further demographic and regional breakdown of the CROP poll.

I have tried to extrapolate the non-Francophone vote and there seems to be a startling shift. If the Francophone vote is 85% (B 44, C 21, N 21, L 7 ) that means that the rest divides roughly 36 % Con. 35% Lib, 15% NDP and 4 % Bloq.

This could lead to the Liberals losing the West Island

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