Federal Polling April 8th

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NorthReport

Nanos has been a credible pollster up until now so don't shoot the messenger.

Arthur Cramer Arthur Cramer's picture

@Northreport:

I always enjoy your posts, and I think you are always very inciteful. However, although I truly hear what you are saying, I simply don't belive it. It is impossible.

Anonymouse

Lens Solution wrote:

La Presse/CROP poll - April 9th

 

Outremont

Thomas Mulcair (47%)

Martin Cauchon (27%)

 

Lac St. Louis

Francis Scarpaleggia (46%)

Larry Smith (26%)

 

From the article: "On dirait que le Parti libéral n'est plus le parti des fédéralistes, mais le parti des électeurs anglophones», a analysé M. Rivest."

Translation: "We might say that the Liberal Party is no longer the party of federalists, but the party of anglophone voters" analysed [pollster] M. Rivest

Ouch! Knowing how the Liberals live and breath for one purpose (to hold power) and given that a lot of Cauchon's allure is that he "might be the next LPC leader," I'm guessing this poll is going to sap Liberal morale in Outremont. Hopefully Mulcair can make it reality on eDay. Hopefully they will run polls now in some of the other contested Montréal ridings, particularly Papineau.

 

NorthReport

And I appreciate your posts as well.

I know Nanos is now affiliated with the Globe-CTV who are obviously no friends of the NDP but Nanos has always been an independent pollster as far as I know, and has had a pretty good track record in the past. Yes it's a bit discouraging however it has been said that most Canadians don't really get involved in the campaign until during or after the debates. Hopefully things will improve next week. This is going to be a tricky one for a lot of voters who want us rid of Harper.

At least the NPD has some very good news in Quebec, and hopefully Mulcair's strong polling numbers, which did not surprise me by-the-way, will free him up to travel throughout the province to help the NPD pick up additional seats there.

acramer wrote:

@Northreport:

I always enjoy your posts, and I think you are always very inciteful. However, although I truly hear what you are saying, I simply don't belive it. It is impossible.

NorthReport

Actually Ipsos and Nanos are showing identical polling numbers for the Cons presently.

 

Lens Solution wrote:

Fidel wrote:

Is Nanos trying the scare Canadians? Sheesh!

Why would Nanos be trying to scare people?

It's the Ipsos-Reid poll that is the scariest one.  They always have the Cons with bigger numbers than is really the case.

Anonymouse

Federal Polls (Nanos tracking numbers for same period, MOE= 3.1%)

Ipsos April 5-7 

N 19% (15-16%)

Ekos April 4-7

N - 16.6% (15-16%)

ARS April 4-5 

N- 21% (16%)

Leger March 30 - April 2

N 18% (16%)

Harris Decima March 29- April 3

N 17% (16%)

Environics Poll, March 30 - April 5
N - 20% (16%)

Stockholm

Lord Palmerston wrote:

I see Nanos is getting to people on the Electionprediction site...apparently he has a reputation for the being most accurate pollster (undeserved).

No, you have it all wrong - the only people who post to electionprediction.org are Liberal staffers who are friends with the Liberal staffer Milton Chan who runs the site. If they find one poll out of ten that suits their talking points - they will all use it.

In other words Nanos is not "getting to" the people who post on that site. The people who post on that site are mostly Liberals who are "getting to" Nanos. It starts with the chicken not the egg.

Anonymouse

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josh

As I recall, Nanos, then SES, had the most positive NDP numbers in the '06 election.  They seem like an outlier the other way this time around.

My impression from all the polling is that the NDP and Bloc may have dropped a bit, the Cons are basically stable, and the Libs have gone up some.

janfromthebruce

Thanks Stockholm who reveals that electionprediction is a liberal staffer. So liberal staffers run a site that many would think is non-bias. Oh yes, let's trust the libs - lol

Charles

I rarely sweat individual polls one way or the other but there's clearly something amiss with Nanos. An entire narrative is being build around Nanos' numbers (see the Globe story on the NDP campaign today - and that was before the most recent catastrophic numbers that show the party dropping to near-2000 numbers, which was a disastrous campaign), that the NDP is tanking; that the progressive voters are abandoning the party for the Liberals as part of some bullshit attempt to vote "strategically" - yet not one other pollster is showing that degree of shift. On the same day Nanos showed the party dropping below 15 three other polls show the party rising to 20-21% (with a fourth at 19%), all increasing from previous numbers. Does any media outside of QC talk about any of these? No, just the one helping reinforce the narrative they want to see. When a slew of polls show one thing and one shows the opposite I find it interesting that the media cling to the one. I'm not pie in the sky, and actually think the NDP have not run a good campaign at all and found the majority of numbers surprising yet the numbers are what they are, Nanos aside. It increasingly feels like an outlier... 

NorthReport

Charles,

I could understand an outlier if it was one poll, but this Nanos situation is cumulative is it not?

In previous elections I have seen CTV being obvious in trying to turn it into a 2 party race. 

I wonder if Nanos is actually operating at arm's length from CTV.

Captain Janeway

I just dont get it. Why are Canadians going to give Harper a majority?

I am so frightened by this

Centrist

I recall during the 2006 election (or was it 2008?), Nanos had the NDP as low as 13% - 14% as well and they rebounded big time. It's the low-ball NDP Ontario number today that has dragged the number down, which will rebound.

That said, I've had a bad feeling ever since this election was called. We've had elections in 2004, 2006, 2008, and now 2011, all in short order, and most people I'm familiar with are tuning this election out. I'm afraid, at the end of the day, the ballot box question will come down to a simplistic "Do we want another election in 1 - 2 years?" and people seem to overwhelmingly be against same. That's why I suspect Harper will get his majority at the end of the day.

 

edmundoconnor

Stockholm wrote:

No, you have it all wrong - the only people who post to electionprediction.org are Liberal staffers who are friends with the Liberal staffer Milton Chan who runs the site. If they find one poll out of ten that suits their talking points - they will all use it.

In other words Nanos is not "getting to" the people who post on that site. The people who post on that site are mostly Liberals who are "getting to" Nanos. It starts with the chicken not the egg.

I think this now explains the northern SK riding being put into TCTC column. The Liberals actually think they have a shot there.

NorthReport

The CROP poll released today shows Mulcair at 7% higher support than he got in the 2008 election.

With all the negative attack ads the Cons have directed towards Ignatieff I think all Ignatieff has to do is to show up for the debates and he will get bonus points for that.

I think we are looking at about 125 seats, the 2006 level of support for Harper on voting day.

bekayne

The NDP at 8.4% in Ontario in Nanos is the same as the Liberals at 11% in Quebec in CROP. In polling, these things happen from time to time.

bekayne

Centrist wrote:

I recall during the 2006 election (or was it 2008?), Nanos had the NDP as low as 13% - 14% as well and they rebounded big time. 

2008. They had the NDP at 13% after the writ was dropped, then had them at 22% in the final days, higher than anyone else. I think they had them as high as 25% in Ontario.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_in_the_Canadian_federal_election,_2008

ghoris

A few points. First, Nanos is a daily tracking poll, so naturally the numbers are going to jump around a lot more based on each day's events. There will need to be a few more polls before we can start calling this a trend.

Second, let's not pretend like Nanos is deliberately fiddling the numbers as part of some evil conspiracy to deliberately screw the NDP. These guys make a living between elections by trumpeting the accuracy of their polls and research so there's no upside for them to manipulate their numbers so they turn out to be way off. Nanos called the 2006 election bang on (literally to within tenths of a percentage point), and while they have been coasting on that for a while, I trust a Nanos poll a lot more than someone who's clearly in the tank for one of the parties (eg Frank Graves) or one of those wacky Angus Reid online surveys.

Third, these polls are showing that the strategy the Liberals have apparently elected to follow could now be bearing fruit - polarize the electorate, make it about voting to 'keep the right-wing crazies out' and throw out lots of progressive-sounding policies that will attract NDP and Green voters. We've seen this movie before in 2000 and 2004, and it worked like a charm for the Grits both times.

Finally, I think the reason the NDP may not be doing better is because the media are not actually talking about the parties' platforms, instead they are focusing entirely on 'process stories' and the voters seem to be tuning out.  I had to agree with the At Issue panel the other day when they said having four days of coverage about someone being thrown out of a Tory rally is ridiculous. Harper's record is going unexamined and nobody in the media is paying any attention to anything substantive.  The NDP is trying to talk policy but its message is getting lost in the shuffle of process stories about Facebook pages, who's being excluded from the debate, and candidate gaffes.

Stockholm

Here is an interesting trip down memory lane with Nanos, he did daily tracking all through the 2005/06 campaign and had various unliley "nadirs" for the NDP before finally getting in line with everyone else. Take a look at what his tracking had on December 13, 2005 - two weeks into the campaign.

http://www.sesresearch.com/election/SES%20CPAC%20December%2012%202005E.pdf

Lord Palmerston

Ghoris I certainly don't think Nanos is deliberately fudging the numbers.  I'm just saying some people seem to think Nanos is the most reliable pollster.  Ever since Nanos got the numbers right in '06 I've heard far too many say that Nanos is the only pollster they trust.

BTW Angus Reid I think has been the most accurate lately.

Northern Shoveler Northern Shoveler's picture

I think no pollster can reach a broad enough segment of the population to be accurate.  I can phone into the rich areas of NDP ridings and show the Conservatives surging.  And in this day and age most young people don't have land lines and most people now call screen and don't even pick up except of course for political junkies like us who want our views expressed in the numbers. 

I think polls should be just banned during elections and that would leave a lot more time for the talking heads to talk about issues not the horse race.

Stockholm

Nanos was lucky in 2006, but in '08 he actually wasn't so close and in any case, when we try to judge the "accuracy" of a pollster - it tends to revolve around who was closest to the results in their final poll on the eve of the election. You could be showing all kinds of wild impossible swings all through the campaign and then happen to get it right on E-day -1. In many ways, Nanos in 2006 was like a broken clock who happened to be right on the day before the election.

The reality is that none of these polling companies have some sort of magic potion - they all use relatively established market research techniques. The main differentiators are things like - do they prompt party names or not and if so - who do they prompt? Are they phone or online - and if by phone how to they bring in cell numbers and all the people under 35 who don't have land lines? Is it computer dialed or human dialed? If its online - what is the track record of how the makeup of the online panel matches the voting population? How many call-backs do they do? Do they have gender and age quotas? How are the results weighted? How sure are they that their sample is geographically ditributed?

NorthReport

Speaking of Nanos

 

 

Harper leads, Layton six points ahead of Ignatieff on Index

 

 

http://www.nanosresearch.com/election2011/20110408-LeadershipE.pdf

Paulitical Junkie

This Nanos Leadership Index annoys me, mainly because it seems to me it would favour whoever is the current PM. Is it something new? I don't remember hearing about it in previous elections.

NorthReport

Here's someting of interest which perhaps cuts through the MSM BS - great work Alice as usual

 

National Poll Bump Masks Liberal Organizational Weakness on the Ground

 

http://www.punditsguide.ca/2011/04/national-poll-bump-masks-liberal-orga...

NorthReport

NDP - 19%
Poll numbers for parties standing still after two weeks of campaigning

 

http://www.canada.com/news/Poll+numbers+parties+standing+still+after+wee...

NorthReport

Reality check perhaps

Cons - 41%

Libs - 26%

NDP  - 19%

Poll numbers for parties standing still after two weeks of campaigning

 

http://www.canada.com/news/Poll+numbers+parties+standing+still+after+wee...

adma

Stockholm wrote:
No, you have it all wrong - the only people who post to electionprediction.org are Liberal staffers who are friends with the Liberal staffer Milton Chan who runs the site. If they find one poll out of ten that suits their talking points - they will all use it.

In other words Nanos is not "getting to" the people who post on that site. The people who post on that site are mostly Liberals who are "getting to" Nanos. It starts with the chicken not the egg.

I can't say that Liberal toadies been the only people--though note that I'm using past tense.  One thing I'm noticing, though, is that the comment intake this time has been noticably more intensive--perhaps a Liberal pile-on effect (or not)

As for the NDP and Nanos: I agree that externally or internally, something weird is going on--and in the case of Ontario going single-digit, as I've said, if true, that'd practically be a "Pantalone-ing" of the federal Dipper vote...

janfromthebruce

I was just about to post the link to that article to.

 

NorthReport wrote:

NDP - 19%
Poll numbers for parties standing still after two weeks of campaigning

 

http://www.canada.com/news/Poll+numbers+parties+standing+still+after+wee...

______________________________________________________________________________________ Our kids live together and play together in their communities, let's have them learn together too!

Doug

There has been some boucing around but we're more or less in the same place we started. I wouldn't expect big changes if they come for at least another week.

janfromthebruce

Tories, NDP get top marks for their national campaigns

OTTAWA — Canadians give the federal Conservatives and the New Democratic Party the best grades for their national campaigns, with the Liberals trailing behind, results of an exclusive poll for Postmedia News and Global National show.

 

Go Jack!

 

 

bekayne

Paulitical Junkie wrote:

This Nanos Leadership Index annoys me, mainly because it seems to me it would favour whoever is the current PM. Is it something new? I don't remember hearing about it in previous elections.

They had it in both 2006 & 2008

bekayne

janfromthebruce wrote:

Tories, NDP get top marks for their national campaigns

OTTAWA — Canadians give the federal Conservatives and the New Democratic Party the best grades for their national campaigns, with the Liberals trailing behind, results of an exclusive poll for Postmedia News and Global National show.

 

Go Jack!

 

 

The Conservatives received the most straight As — from 11 per cent of respondents, while the Grits were slapped with the most failing grades — also about 11 per cent.

Gee, what a conincidence

Lens Solution

bekayne wrote:

janfromthebruce wrote:

Tories, NDP get top marks for their national campaigns

OTTAWA — Canadians give the federal Conservatives and the New Democratic Party the best grades for their national campaigns, with the Liberals trailing behind, results of an exclusive poll for Postmedia News and Global National show.

 

Go Jack!

 

 

The Conservatives received the most straight As — from 11 per cent of respondents, while the Grits were slapped with the most failing grades — also about 11 per cent.

Gee, what a conincidence

Yup - it's an Ipsos-Reid poll by Darrell Bricker for Post Media.  Typical Conservative propaganda. 

adma

I guess what's so odd about Nanos re NDP is how discordant it is with the other polls, which remain stubbornly in the higher teens--but so far, summing up from everything, those seem to be the two most significant patterns: the apparent rise in Quebec, and the apparent squeeze play in Ontario which seems *really* unique to Ontario.   Something about the latter doesn't make sense--or if it does, it seems rather ominous, almost to the point of Jack potentially losing his own seat, David Lewis-style.

Can anyone give ground reports on Ontario, esp. in incumbent or target seats?  Or is it too guarded a situation...

Lens Solution

I doubt Jack Layton is in danger in Toronto-Danforth, although it's possible that Trinity-Spadina will be closer this time around.

Lens Solution

The 11% number was obviously wrong since it is out of whack with all the other polls, including the poll for Lac St. Louis from CROP today which showed the Libs leading the Cons by 20 points - the same margin they won by in 2008.

NorthReport

As I have said all along the Liberal support is a mile wide and an inch deep. Everything we have seen so far confirms that. A good example is Outremont where it is obvious the Liberals are going to blown out of the water there, and I doubt Justin Trudeau will be re-elected in Papineau either. What was it 11% support for the Liberals in Quebec. What we will see happen is Harper re-elected with perhaps fewer seats but keep in office for the next few years by the Liberals who are only too happy to support Harper's right-wing agenda.

NorthReport

One riding in the West Island of Montreal, please give it a break.  Outremont is a perfect example of the Liberal BS. For the Liberals to suggest they would take Outrmont with a guy who is touted to be their next leader just shows how out of touch the Liberals are in Quebec, and across Canada for that matter. 

Lens Solution

My point was that the Liberals are obviously doing better in Quebec than the 11% figure from last month, otherwise they wouldn't have such a large lead on the Cons in West Island.

Was Martin Cauchon touted to be the next leader?  Perhaps in his own mind.  I'm not sure how many other people consider him the next leader, as I agree he seems somewhat out of touch.  If he really wants to be leader he'll probably have to run in a more secure Montreal riding next time.

NorthReport

Actually the Liberals are polling at 11% in Quebec and it was the same polling firm CROP that had the Liberals at 11% in Quebec. As I said one seat in the West Island of Montreal is just so not representative of the situation in Quebec.

ottawaobserver

Lac St Louis is by far the most anglophone riding in the province. The Liberal vote total at 46% actually mirrors the percent anglophone in the riding, if I'm remembering that figure correctly. So, yes, it's a complete outlier in the entire province.

NorthReport

NDP's Mulcair walks tall in Outremont

 

 

Now social democrats who used to park their vote with the Bloc Québécois, even if they weren't sovereigntist, are finally realizing there's a left-leaning federalist alternative, he says.

As for the NDP's other competitors, Mulcair argues that "the Liberals completely tanked in the wake of the sponsorship scandal," while the Conservatives have "worn out their welcome" in Quebec City over their refusal to fund an NHL-calibre arena.

Yet the party still placed a distant fourth in many ridings that Mulcair thinks the NDP can now win. The party has some high-profile candidates in the running this election, such as Cree leader Romeo Saganash, in Abitibi-Baie James-Nunavik-Eeyou; former union leader Claude Patry, in Jonquière-Alma; and Nycole Turmel, former president of the Public Service Alliance of Canada, in Hull-Aylmer.

"These are people who are bringing the NDP message forward and they are also very well-respected in their own milieu," Mulcair says. "I know I'm not going to be the only NDP MP (in Quebec) after (the election)."

 

 

http://www.montrealgazette.com/news/Mulcair+walks+tall+Outremont/4589441...

knownothing knownothing's picture

It seems the NDP which used to be a western based party is concentrating in Vancouver Toronto and Montreal because progressive ideas need urban intellectual support and the LIBS and Torys are no longer progressive like they used to do. But at the same time the NDP still has some base in the rural areas but we aren't getting them out to vote. I'm in Palliser and Noah Evanchuk is up aginst Ray Boughen and he has a really good chance. But many people are turned off. It seems the polls are irrelevant if you could get the 43% of possible voters who didn't vote last time to vote.

JKR

Going by previous elections in Canada and abroad, it seems that polls are not very meaningful until a few days or a week or so after the debates.

bekayne

NorthReport wrote:

Actually the Liberals are polling at 11% in Quebec and it was the same polling firm CROP that had the Liberals at 11% in Quebec. As I said one seat in the West Island of Montreal is just so not representative of the situation in Quebec.

So if that one poll from CROP is the only accurate poll then that means the NDP are behind the Conservatives in Quebec, right?

nicky

It is hard to fathom that the NDP is down to an Audrey McLaughlin level of support in Ontario. 308.com gives the following explanation, although I do not find it too convincing:

 

 

I've decided to update the general projections for the week-end, since we got new polls from Ekos, Nanos and Ipsos. There ar a lot of discrepancies between the polls, especially with Nanos. The last daily update from them puts the NDP at... 8% in Ontario! My guess is it has to do with the methodology. Nanos asks a slighlty different question than the other pollsters. They ask the first two choices and that might mix up some Liberals and NDP voters. I'm saying that cause in the same poll, Nanos has the Liberals first in Ontario. They are definitely the only one with the Liberals so high and the NDP so low. Fortunately, it's only one poll and the weird results are thus washed out in the average. And since the latest Ipsos poll has the Tories higher than the other polls, it kind of cancels out these results.

Even so, there are some ominous signs for the NDP in the polls. it is true that they average about 18%, the same as at the last election. But the NDP has soared in Quebec. That means that they must be losing votes elewhere. In deed, the polls generally show it has fallen from 26 to less than 20% in the Artlantic, from 18 to perhaps 15% in Ontario, from 25 to about 18% in Man ?sak. In Alberta and BC it seems to be at about the same as in 2008.

nicky

It is hard to fathom that the NDP is down to an Audrey McLaughlin level of support in Ontario. 308.com gives the following explanation, although I do not find it too convincing:

 

 

I've decided to update the general projections for the week-end, since we got new polls from Ekos, Nanos and Ipsos. There ar a lot of discrepancies between the polls, especially with Nanos. The last daily update from them puts the NDP at... 8% in Ontario! My guess is it has to do with the methodology. Nanos asks a slighlty different question than the other pollsters. They ask the first two choices and that might mix up some Liberals and NDP voters. I'm saying that cause in the same poll, Nanos has the Liberals first in Ontario. They are definitely the only one with the Liberals so high and the NDP so low. Fortunately, it's only one poll and the weird results are thus washed out in the average. And since the latest Ipsos poll has the Tories higher than the other polls, it kind of cancels out these results.

Even so, there are some ominous signs for the NDP in the polls. it is true that they average about 18%, the same as at the last election. But the NDP has soared in Quebec. That means that they must be losing votes elewhere. In deed, the polls generally show it has fallen from 26 to less than 20% in the Artlantic, from 18 to perhaps 15% in Ontario, from 25 to about 18% in Man ?sak. In Alberta and BC it seems to be at about the same as in 2008.

nicky

It is hard to fathom that the NDP is down to an Audrey McLaughlin level of support in Ontario. 308.com gives the following explanation, although I do not find it too convincing:

 

 

I've decided to update the general projections for the week-end, since we got new polls from Ekos, Nanos and Ipsos. There ar a lot of discrepancies between the polls, especially with Nanos. The last daily update from them puts the NDP at... 8% in Ontario! My guess is it has to do with the methodology. Nanos asks a slighlty different question than the other pollsters. They ask the first two choices and that might mix up some Liberals and NDP voters. I'm saying that cause in the same poll, Nanos has the Liberals first in Ontario. They are definitely the only one with the Liberals so high and the NDP so low. Fortunately, it's only one poll and the weird results are thus washed out in the average. And since the latest Ipsos poll has the Tories higher than the other polls, it kind of cancels out these results.

Even so, there are some ominous signs for the NDP in the polls. it is true that they average about 18%, the same as at the last election. But the NDP has soared in Quebec. That means that they must be losing votes elewhere. In deed, the polls generally show it has fallen from 26 to less than 20% in the Artlantic, from 18 to perhaps 15% in Ontario, from 25 to about 18% in Man ?sak. In Alberta and BC it seems to be at about the same as in 2008.

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