Federal polling - April 19

141 posts / 0 new
Last post
NorthReport
Federal polling - April 19

*

NorthReport

Nanos Research 3 Day Tracking Poll ending April 18

Cons - 39.8%, Flatlined

Libs - 30.2%, Up 0.4%

NDP - 17.3%, Down 0.1%

Bloc - 8.6%, Flatlined

Grn - 3.1%, Down 0.3%

Und - 15.7%

http://www.rabble.ca/babble/canadian-politics/federal-polling-april-19

Krago

Three new riding polls by CROP in the Quebec City area:

 

Beauport-Limoilou:  Cons - 35%, BQ - 32%, NDP - 20%, Lib - 11%

Louis-Hébert:  BQ - 37%, Cons - 28%, Lib - 17%, NDP - 14%

Portneuf-Jacques-Cartier:  Ind - 37%, BQ - 32%, NDP - 17%, Lib - 9%

Lens Solution

Those riding polls for Quebec City are disappointing.  They show that the Cons are maintaining their support in the region and that the BQ has been unable to pick up traction.  If a weak MP like Sylvie Boucher in B-L is ahead, the other Con MP's probably are too.  It also looks like Andre Arthur may get re-elected.  That's not good either because he is basically a Con and will probably cross the floor to officially become a Con if Harper gets to 154 and needs an extra seat for a majority.

NorthReport

Nanos Leadership Index

Harper - 110.6, Up 14.7

Layton 59.5, Up 1.4

Ignatieff - 49.1, Up 8.6

http://www.nanosresearch.com/election2011/20110418-LeadershipE.pdf

Anonymouse

Those polls were conducted before Layton visited Quebec City (the media had previously written off the possibility of him visiting) and set off a media firestorm. His meeting with popular Quebec City mayor Regis Lebeaume was by all reports a huge success. He announced support for cities that the Federation of Canadian Municipalities had been asking for in the last budget, support for a high-speed rail link in the Quebec City to Windsor corridor, a Quebec City tram line (the focus of all his announcements was green infrastructure), and previously had announced support for a pan-Canadian infrastructure fund that could support building a new arena in Quebec and supporting Edmonton's Commonwealth Games (?) bid, among other things. In short, this poll is already irrelevant.

Even so, I can't resist highlighting this gem from the poll:

«La montée du NPD se fait principalement aux dépens des libéraux en ce moment. Mais si cela se poursuit, cela va se faire au détriment du Bloc québécois. Nous n'en sommes pas encore rendus là», a dit M. Rivest.

 

Translation: The rise of the NDP is coming at the expense of the Liberals at the moment (get that! no vote-splitting going on here with the BQ). Let's see if between the BQ and the NDP, they can bring the CPC down, plucking away federalist and soft-nationalist votes. If anything, this poll shows that the BQ is within the margin of error with the CPC in every riding except the one they hold.

 

Lens Solution

The rise of the NDP is also coming at the expense of the BQ.

NorthReport

As CROP stated the rise of the NPD is coming primarily at the expense of the Liberals which is good. The fewer Liberal and Tory MPs we have the better.

Lens Solution

It's coming at the expense of both the Liberals and the BQ, as the lower BQ numbers indicate.  A lower BQ vote may actually help both the Liberals and the Conservatives hold onto their seats as the above riding polls show.

NorthReport

I'll take CROP's interpretation thanks.

 

Quote:
The rise of the NDP is coming at the expense of the Liberals at the moment

Lens Solution

By all means.

But unfortunately the BQ vote is not high enough in Quebec right now as the CROP polls themselves show.  I've even been doing a bit of work for Richard Cote's campaign against Andre Arthur in Portneuf, which is why it's disappointing to see Arthur ahead.  It looks like the Cons could keep all 11 seats, and Democratic Space and other seat projections show the Liberals basically keeping all of their seats and maybe gaining 1 or 2 additional ones like Ahuntsic and Brome-Missisquoi because of the lower BQ vote.

NorthReport

Yesterday's Angus Reid poll for those who might have missed it

 

Cons - 36, Down 2%

NDP - 25%, Up 4%

Libs - 25%, Down 2%

 

 

Tories Ahead in Canada, but NDP Ties Liberals as Layton Connects with Voters

Jack Layton posts the highest approval rating for any Canadian federal leader in the past three years

The biggest winner in the first voting intention survey conducted after debate week is Layton. The NDP leader has successfully connected with voters, providing his party with a marked boost. Layton now commands the approval of half of Canadians, something no other party leader has been able to do in three years.

 

 

http://www.angus-reid.com/polls/43846/tories-ahead-in-canada-but-ndp-tie...

 

Lens Solution

Yes, I think we've all seen the Angus Reid poll, thanks.

Anonymouse

Lol. Sloppy translation on my part CROP says,

"The rise of the NDP is coming principally at the expense of the Liberals at the moment"

This is plain to see for anyone that looks at the 2008 results. The Liberals have completely fallen off the map in the Quebec region, despite Ignatieff spending a lot of time there on his bus tours, etc.

Check out the footage of Jack Layton's rally in Quebec City. It was enthusiastic and well attended. Amazing, for a leader and a party that has never had a foothold in this very nationalist region. The media were also surprised by how young the turnout was. They said that this was what contrasted the NDP rally most from any other party rallies that have been held in the region.

At Jack Layton's post-debate rally at the Theatre Corona in Montreal, the media reported that there were 250 almost exclusively young voters there to hear Jack and cheer on the NDP. The NDP in Quebec is representing hope and optimism right now and change is in the air.

 

Boom Boom Boom Boom's picture

I hope people in Quebec come to their senses on May 2nd and vote BQ, not NDP, because the NDP vote is not strong enough to actually gain seats, while at the same time it weakens the BQ - allowing more Liberals and Conservatives to gain seats. It's vote splitting, pure and simple.

NorthReport

Thanks Anonymouse,

Jack, back in 2003, did say he had a 10 year plan for Quebec and he sure has kept his word on that. Mulcair says he now expects 10 NPD seats from Quebec which would be fantastic.

bekayne

This is something that needs to be discussed. From a comment by Eric Grenier on his threehundredeight.com blog:

I've gotten responses from some major pollsters, all saying they weigh young Canadians according to their proportion in the general population, not according to their historical turnout rate.

http://threehundredeight.blogspot.com/2011/04/liberals-and-ndp-make-big-gains.html#comments

So all the polls we are seeing overestimate the number of young people who'll vote, & underestimate the number of older people who'll vote. Remember in the last election, support for the Conservatives was about 3% higher than what the final polls were saying, The NDP & Greens came in under what was predicted

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_in_the_Canadian_federal_election,_2008

Very few pollsters in Canada screen for likely voters. In the last Ipsos poll, they released 2 numbers. The second one of very likely voters had a 56% turnout (very close to 2008). The Conservatives ended up 3% (again) higher, the NDP 1% lower. The first number assumed the same voter turnout for all age groups. The second had: 18-34 (38%), 35-54 (58%), 55+ (71%) 

http://www.ipsos-na.com/download/pr.aspx?id=10578

Yesterday's EKOS poll had something of a likely voter screen, except their likely voter pool was around 90% of the first number. The differences were: Conservatives (+0.8), Liberals (+0.9), NDP (-0.3), BQ (+0.2), Green (-1.5)

http://www.ekospolitics.com/wp-content/uploads/full_report_april_18_2011.pdf

So to all those who say the polls are showing a Conservative majority isn't possible, these polls may be underestimating their support by up to 3%

 

 

Anonymouse

-

NorthReport

Some pollsters probably don't even connect with youth because they have private cell phone numbers, and maybe the youth vote is being underestimated particularly in this election. And maybe that is why online pollsters like Angus Reid who now show the NDP in 2nd place are more accurate.

bekayne

NorthReport wrote:

Some pollsters probably don't even connect with youth because they have private cell phone numbers and maybe the youth vote is being underestimated in this election. Maybe that is why online pollsters like Angus Reid are more accurate.

No, all the pollsters weigh the youth to their proportion of the population. The question isn't will pollsters connect with youth, but will youth connect with the ballot box

gyor

He underestimates the power of Rick Mercier and voter mobs. In fact there maybe a reversal of that trend as young voters get engaged and older voters get sick of going to the polls.

NorthReport

Speak for yourself please.

This AR poll showing the NDP tied for 2nd place across Canada, may very well be one of the turning points in the campaign, so I want to ensure as many people as possible realize what is actually happening as opposed to the constant spin in trying to discredit the NDP on the part of some posters if you get my drift. 

Lens Solution wrote:

Yes, I think we've all seen the Angus Reid poll, thanks.

bekayne
NorthReport

The Layton Liberals are now voting NDP

Maybe Mulcair should get out to the West Island 

Liberals the 'party of the English' in Montreal, polling firm says

 

Francophone Liberals seen switching to the NDP and the Conservatives

 

But looking at all the four races, what Rivest noted was the transfer of Liberal votes to the NDP.

"The Liberals are down and the NDP is up," he said, with Liberals who consider themselves progressive turning to the NDP.

The only exception was among the anglophone voters of Lac-Saint-Louis, Rivest said, who are sticking with the Liberals.

Karl Bélanger, a Quebec City native who is NDP leader Jack Layton's senior press secretary, said the NDP "is on the verge of a wave in Quebec," with strong candidates in addition to Mulcair, such as Françoise Boivin in Gatineau, Nycole Turmel in Hull-Aylmer, Romeo Saganash in Abitibi-Baie-James-Nunavik-Eeyou and Claude Patry in Jonquière-Alma.

"Jack Layton is giving Quebecers an alternative," Bélanger said. And Quebec voters are saying, "We can go in a different direction."

David Chrétien, an aide to Sylvie Boucher, said the Conservative incumbent is encouraged that the polls show her ahead. "We are continuing to go door-to-door, visiting shopping centres, the traditional methods."

Beauport-Limoilou is one Quebec City-area seat the Bloc was counting on winning over what they portray as the Conservative snub to the city: Harper's refusal of federal funds for a new hockey arena.

But the CROP poll shows NDP candidate Raymond Côté a strong third in the riding, with 20 per cent of the vote. 

http://www.montrealgazette.com/news/decision-canada/Liberals+party+English+Montreal+polling+firm/4643069/story.html

Krago

By far the most colourful poll report I've ever seen!

2011 Federal Election: Third Wave

 

David Young

Krago wrote:

By far the most colourful poll report I've ever seen!

2011 Federal Election: Third Wave

 

Krago, I couldn't open that link.

Is it possible to put it in a different format?

 

bekayne

NorthReport wrote:

The Layton Liberals are now voting NDP

Maybe Mulcair should get out to the West Island 

Liberals the 'party of the English' in Montreal, polling firm says

 

Francophone Liberals seen switching to the NDP and the Conservatives

 

But looking at all the four races, what Rivest noted was the transfer of Liberal votes to the NDP.

"The Liberals are down and the NDP is up," he said, with Liberals who consider themselves progressive turning to the NDP.

The only exception was among the anglophone voters of Lac-Saint-Louis, Rivest said, who are sticking with the Liberals.

Karl Bélanger, a Quebec City native who is NDP leader Jack Layton's senior press secretary, said the NDP "is on the verge of a wave in Quebec," with strong candidates in addition to Mulcair, such as Françoise Boivin in Gatineau, Nycole Turmel in Hull-Aylmer, Romeo Saganash in Abitibi-Baie-James-Nunavik-Eeyou and Claude Patry in Jonquière-Alma.

"Jack Layton is giving Quebecers an alternative," Bélanger said. And Quebec voters are saying, "We can go in a different direction."

David Chrétien, an aide to Sylvie Boucher, said the Conservative incumbent is encouraged that the polls show her ahead. "We are continuing to go door-to-door, visiting shopping centres, the traditional methods."

Beauport-Limoilou is one Quebec City-area seat the Bloc was counting on winning over what they portray as the Conservative snub to the city: Harper's refusal of federal funds for a new hockey arena.

But the CROP poll shows NDP candidate Raymond Côté a strong third in the riding, with 20 per cent of the vote. 

http://www.montrealgazette.com/news/decision-canada/Liberals+party+English+Montreal+polling+firm/4643069/story.html

Contrary to the headline, those polls show nobody switching to the Conservatives

NorthReport

Take it up with CROP. They are the pollster. If they say it I believe them

bekayne

NorthReport wrote:

Take it up with CROP. They are the pollster. If they say it I believe them

Beauport-Limoilou: 2008 (37%) CROP (35%)

Louis-Hebert: 2008 (28%) CROP (28%)

Outremont: 2008 (11%) CROP (7%)

NorthReport

Please explain what you are talking about

Lens Solution

Boom Boom wrote:

I hope people in Quebec come to their senses on May 2nd and vote BQ, not NDP, because the NDP vote is not strong enough to actually gain seats, while at the same time it weakens the BQ - allowing more Liberals and Conservatives to gain seats. It's vote splitting, pure and simple.

Thanks, Boom Boom.

I tried to point this out above.

RevolutionPlease RevolutionPlease's picture

Those scared of vote splitting don't get what is going on.

Vote NDP folks,

It's the ONLY Choice for our pensions and our health care and our neighbours.

RevolutionPlease RevolutionPlease's picture

What effect can the Bloc have on that?

knownothing knownothing's picture

Sorry Boom Boom

 

I don't see why you would give preference to a regional party. Do you not care about the rest of Canada?

JeffWells

Nanos is getting on track today, NDP up 2.5% to nearly 20%.

David Young

I see support for the (so-called) Green Party is down to 3.9%, according to CTV TV.

Can her calling for 'strategic voting' to Green supporters to vote Liberal be far off?

 

KenS

Elizabeth May is so focused on pulling a rabbit out of the hat- or else... that it is extremely unlikely you will hear a peep out of her in this election about 'strategic voting,' except in her race of course.

janfromthebruce

NANOS

 

National Ballot Question: For those parties you would consider voting for federally, could you please rank your top two current local preferences? (Committed voters only - First Preference)

The numbers in parentheses denote the change from the three day rolling average of the Nanos Nightly Tracking ending on April 18th (n=1,200; committed voters only n=1,012). *Undecided represents respondents who are not committed voters (n=1,200).

Canada (n=1,018 committed voters)
Conservative 39.1% (-0.7)
Liberal 28.4% (-1.8)
NDP 19.8% (+2.5)
Bloc Quebecois 7.7% (-0.9)
Green 3.9% (+0.8)

*Undecided 15.2% (-0.5)

Vote Driver Question: Which of the following factors are most important to you today in influencing your vote [Rotate]? (n=1,200)

The numbers in parentheses denote the change from the three day rolling average of the Nanos Nightly Tracking ending on April 18th (n=1,200).

Party Policies 52.2% (-1.0)
Party Leader 21.7% (-0.7)
Local Candidate 14.5% (+1.3)
Traditionally Vote for Party 8.0% (-0.1)
Unsure 3.7% (+0.6)

adma

Though one cloud in the Nanos silver lining remains Ontario, where the NDP's mired around 12-13%--something doesn't compute there; given all the seats the NDP currently holds, it suggests a 90s AudreyAlexa scenario of wipeouts and single-digit shares.  OTOH if that truly is lowballing it, it may also suggest that the "real" national NDP share is pushing well into the 20s now...

NorthReport

Not a peep from  Nanos about the NDP's substantial jump in their poll showing a NDP gain of 4.3% against the Liberals, and a NDP gain of 3.2% against the Cons.

Cons - 39.1%, Down 0.7%

Libs - 28.4%, Down 1.8%

NDP - 19.8%, Up 2.5%

Bloc - 7.7%, Down 0.9%

Grn - 3.9%, Up 0.8%

Und - 15.2%, down 0.5%

The link below is for the regionals

http://www.nanosresearch.com/election2011/20110419-BallotE.pdf

NorthReport

Take a look at Nanos polling for Quebec.

A_J

NorthReport wrote:

Take a look at Nanos polling for Quebec.

Well, the data for Quebec is actually kind of troubling, isn't it?  More than doubled from the 2008 election (12.2% to 25.4%, by Nanos' numbers), but barely budged nationally (18.2% in 2008, 19.8% today).

I can't find data that breaks down the party's vote share between Quebec and the Rest of Canada, but my (possibly wrong) math indicates that the NDP received 12.2% of the vote in Quebec and 20.1% of the vote in the Rest of Canada - 18.2% overall (based on Quebec comprising 23.9% of the population).

But now, polling at 25.4% in Quebec and 19.8% overall, suggests the Rest of Canada vote is down to 18.1%.

I guess it all depends on whether that 25.4% in Quebec is enough to pick up seats to make up for a drop-off in votes elsewhere.

NorthReport

Instead of all the negativity here,  Angus Reid, the most accurate pollster for the 2008 election, now has the NDP tied in 2nd place, big jump in Nanos polling today for the NDP, and with the NDP's current momentum, what if the NDP's momentum continues to grow, how many seats could the NPD end up taking in Quebec alone? Mulcair says he is now looking at 10 NPD seats.

  

knownothing knownothing's picture

I think the NDP is actually closer to the 20-25% range that the other polls are saying (Angus Reid-Leger). CTV/Globe can't allow NDP pop. Vote to top 20% because then it would look like they actually have a chance of passing the Liberals and forming government. It would contribute to their momentum. It is too easy to rig federal poll numbers. So they put us at 19.8. As close as they could get without crossing the threshold.

Arthur Cramer Arthur Cramer's picture

I am guessing the NDP will poll nationally at somewhere between 20 and 25% this election, and will do better in all regions with the possible exception of Ontario. I am guessing they have a good chance of breaking 40 seats, though it might not be by much. With a little bit of luck they might pickup 3 - 5 seats in Quebec as well.

I think it is looking a little better.

A_J

NorthReport wrote:

Instead of all the negativity here,  Angus Reid, the most accurate pollster for the 2008 election, now has the NDP tied in 2nd place.

Correction: two days ago, in one poll out of approximately 50 released in the last three weeks, Angus Reid had the NDP tied for 2nd place.  And it was an online poll at that.

By all means enjoy the amazing news contained in that one poll, but don't get cocky.

NorthReport

Ya think!  And it is not one but 1/2 doz polls now. Check this out.

 

 

Why everyone - including the Bloc - will join the NDP pile-on

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/ottawa-notebook/why-everyon...

gyor

A_J wrote:

NorthReport wrote:

Instead of all the negativity here,  Angus Reid, the most accurate pollster for the 2008 election, now has the NDP tied in 2nd place.

Correction: two days ago, in one poll out of approximately 50 released in the last three weeks, Angus Reid had the NDP tied for 2nd place.  And it was an online poll at that.

By all means enjoy the amazing news contained in that one poll, but don't get cocky.

At the end of the day the only polls that matter are election day and the polls you can use for propaganda.

Using Angus Reid, Leger, Forum, and to a lesser extent any poll with the NDP trending upward especially in Quebec to create a sense of momentum is the only real use any of these polls have. Thats how politics works. I have no problem crowing about the AR and other polls to everyone I know because the NDP's weakness is that it seen as a none contender and polla like this undermine that.

gyor

A_J wrote:

NorthReport wrote:

Instead of all the negativity here,  Angus Reid, the most accurate pollster for the 2008 election, now has the NDP tied in 2nd place.

Correction: two days ago, in one poll out of approximately 50 released in the last three weeks, Angus Reid had the NDP tied for 2nd place.  And it was an online poll at that.

By all means enjoy the amazing news contained in that one poll, but don't get cocky.

At the end of the day the only polls that matter are election day and the polls you can use for propaganda.

Using Angus Reid, Leger, Forum, and to a lesser extent any poll with the NDP trending upward especially in Quebec to create a sense of momentum is the only real use any of these polls have. Thats how politics works. I have no problem crowing about the AR and other polls to everyone I know because the NDP's weakness is that it seen as a none contender and polls like this that show the NDP as strong and growing create buzz, excitement, and hope that can act as a self fullfilling prophecy.

NorthReport

You may well be onto something as Nanos didn't mention one word about the NDP bounce today in his headline which was significant.

knownothing wrote:

I think the NDP is actually closer to the 20-25% range that the other polls are saying (Angus Reid-Leger). CTV/Globe can't allow NDP pop. Vote to top 20% because then it would look like they actually have a chance of passing the Liberals and forming government. It would contribute to their momentum. It is too easy to rig federal poll numbers. So they put us at 19.8. As close as they could get without crossing the threshold.

NorthReport

--

Pages

Topic locked