Federal polling - April 25 (2)

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NorthReport
Federal polling - April 25 (2)

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NorthReport

Busy day for the polling thread.   Laughing

Sean in Ottawa

Policywonk -- not sure what you mean as obvious other possibilities should these numbers hold out-- I'd consider Central Nova one.

And that would be sweet!!!!!

I am in the middle of running this poll through the system I have and I'll see what it gives me-- I think some will be surprised by the number of Liberals I think will hang on or gain in some strange splits-- will be back in a few minutes I hope with my numbers of this poll.

Basement Dweller

In the EKOS poll, Vancouver NDP support is actually slightly lower than across BC. This means additional seats around PG, Kamloops and the Kootenays. Oh and a sweep of Vancouver Island except Saanich-The Islands.

Lens Solution

I would love to see Peter MacKay be defeated by the NDP.

 It would be sweet, particularly after Elizabeth May's campaign last time led to him actually increasing his vote.

Ken Burch

Basement Dweller wrote:

In the EKOS poll, Vancouver NDP support is actually slightly lower than across BC. This means additional seats around PG, Kamloops and the Kootenays. Oh and a sweep of Vancouver Island except Saanich-The Islands.

That makes sense.  For some reason, Vancouver has always been the area of B.C. where Liberal support survives when it dies out everywhere else in the province.  You'd think that, as the big city, that wouldn't be the case, but there it is, for some reason.

Anonymouse

Weird things could happen in Atlantic Canada. In Nova Scotia, it is possible to guess which seats the NDP would win with these numbers, but what about the other provinces? If the NDP crests in the Maritimes it could look like 1997 all over again.

Sean in Ottawa

Ok when I run this I get:

Cons 129

NDP 91

Lib 67

BQ 21

Before you ream me about the Liberals being too high-- make sure you look at the regionals carefully.

Some snapshots for Liberals

PEI  -- up 1

NS -- even (lose 1 to NDP take West Nova from Cons)

NB -- pick up 2 from Cons

QC -- down 9

ON -- down 6 -- but hang on in many splits where they had very high before

BC -- pick up 1 with dropping Cons (NDP pickups coming from Cons)

That said if the NDP continue to increase only slightly the Liberals will lose a half dozen BC alone but these numbers do not show that presently.

This is one poll a snapshot-- however it shows one clear result: Layton moving to 24 Sussex unless Liberals back Harper.

 

Charles

Anonymouse wrote:

Weird things could happen in Atlantic Canada. In Nova Scotia, it is possible to guess which seats the NDP would win with these numbers, but what about the other provinces? If the NDP crests in the Maritimes it could look like 1997 all over again.

There are so few seats in this region that are likely prospective wins that it makes one wonder if it would just be a matter of big landslides in certain seats. In addition to the 4 the NDP hold now (all of which were safe anyhow) Dartmouth Cole Harbour and South Shore St, Margarets and St. Johns South would be slam dunks, St. John would be on the table, Sydney Victoria would start to look possible for the first time since that giant tool Mark Eyking took the seat from Peter Mancini in 2000, and Halifax West would be a real possibility. Madawaska-Rest. would start looking good again too. I can't see where else the party would have realistic shots in the region, Labrador? Too far out number-wise despite a promising history. Central Nova? Once Peter MacKay retires, sure. It gets hard to see where else it would even be possible at this point.

Anonymouse

How about Fundy Royal or Random Burin St Georges? Any chance the NDP could show a pulse on PEI?

josh

One crazy election.  Could be one of those rare moments when the stars align for an underdog party.  Consider:  You have a party that's ahead but has a ceiling on its support that it can't break through.  You have another party that appears to be out of gas and suffering from a serious identity problem.  And another party whose entire raison d'etre appears to be ringing hollow to more and more of its former voters.  Throw in a stalemated government and the two most likely outcomes probably are a Conservative majority or an NDP-led minority.

Policywonk

Sean in Ottawa wrote:

Policywonk -- not sure what you mean as obvious other possibilities should these numbers hold out-- I'd consider Central Nova one.

And that would be sweet!!!!!

I am in the middle of running this poll through the system I have and I'll see what it gives me-- I think some will be surprised by the number of Liberals I think will hang on or gain in some strange splits-- will be back in a few minutes I hope with my numbers of this poll.

The ones we were already contending in, like South-Shore-St Margarets and St. John's South-Mount Pearl, plus our incumbents. Would it be possible to pick up Saint John and one or both of the Cape Breton ridings for example, or perhaps Dartmouth-Cole Harbour? It would be nice to see MacKay defeated, but I think other pick-ups are more likely.

Charles

Anonymouse wrote:

How about Fundy Royal or Random Burin St Georges? Any chance the NDP could show a pulse on PEI?

 

You know, PEI is weird, it's "lose your desposit" kind of country normally, and yet in the odd '97 regional surge Delores Crane came crazy-close to actually winning a seat on the Island. Random was better for us with a star candidate but I've seen no signs of life there. I don't know anything about F-R. If the last regional breakdown holds strange things could happen but we would need to see at least one more poll showing anything close to those numbers to start thinking about the big-time long shot seats. I currently predict the NDP hold the 4, pick up Dartmouth and very possibly St John's South. 

Northern Shoveler Northern Shoveler's picture

Ken Burch wrote:

Basement Dweller wrote:

In the EKOS poll, Vancouver NDP support is actually slightly lower than across BC. This means additional seats around PG, Kamloops and the Kootenays. Oh and a sweep of Vancouver Island except Saanich-The Islands.

That makes sense.  For some reason, Vancouver has always been the area of B.C. where Liberal support survives when it dies out everywhere else in the province.  You'd think that, as the big city, that wouldn't be the case, but there it is, for some reason.

The federal Liberals in BC have been the professional class.  In the past they have had an abundance of young lawyers with lots of time on their hands to run election campaigns.  The ones I know are real small "l" liberals and they have in the past been the backbone of the election machines in many of the ridings.  As I and others have said the federal Liberals out here have always had national unity as a priority. They saw the Liberal party as the bastion of left federalism in Quebec so they wanted to send Western MP's to a governing party in Ottawa to offset the braying donkeys from the Reform party.  

Policywonk

Charles wrote:

Anonymouse wrote:

Weird things could happen in Atlantic Canada. In Nova Scotia, it is possible to guess which seats the NDP would win with these numbers, but what about the other provinces? If the NDP crests in the Maritimes it could look like 1997 all over again.

There are so few seats in this region that are likely prospective wins that it makes one wonder if it would just be a matter of big landslides in certain seats. In addition to the 4 the NDP hold now (all of which were safe anyhow) Dartmouth Cole Harbour and South Shore St, Margarets and St. Johns South would be slam dunks, St. John would be on the table, Sydney Victoria would start to look possible for the first time since that giant tool Mark Eyking took the seat from Peter Mancini in 2000, and Halifax West would be a real possibility. Madawaska-Rest. would start looking good again too. I can't see where else the party would have realistic shots in the region, Labrador? Too far out number-wise despite a promising history. Central Nova? Once Peter MacKay retires, sure. It gets hard to see where else it would even be possible at this point.

I think you mean Saint John. That's the easiest way to distinguish it from St. John's.

Sean in Ottawa

This result is very dangerous for the Liberals:

If they join Cons they are screwed in the next eleciton

If they join coalition with NDP they will likely lose some members to join Cons or sit outside splitting the party

The Liberals would find it almost impossible to keep their party in one piece.

Ken Burch

Iggy's looking more and more like the Canadian Lloyd George.

NorthReport

Thanks Sean, good work.

Hopefully though the slow steady increase in support for the NDP which has now developed into a surge, will continue unabated until next Monday - basically only 6 days of campaigning left. I don't want to get too optimistic, however I am now hearing the increase in support for the NDP is turning into a tsunami. 

Sean in Ottawa

Policywonk wrote:

Sean in Ottawa wrote:

Policywonk -- not sure what you mean as obvious other possibilities should these numbers hold out-- I'd consider Central Nova one.

And that would be sweet!!!!!

I am in the middle of running this poll through the system I have and I'll see what it gives me-- I think some will be surprised by the number of Liberals I think will hang on or gain in some strange splits-- will be back in a few minutes I hope with my numbers of this poll.

The ones we were already contending in, like South-Shore-St Margarets and St. John's South-Mount Pearl, plus our incumbents. Would it be possible to pick up Saint John and one or both of the Cape Breton ridings for example, or perhaps Dartmouth-Cole Harbour? It would be nice to see MacKay defeated, but I think other pick-ups are more likely.

I already have SSSM in the NDP column as a gain from the Cons same thing with St John's South (pickup from Libs)

These numebrs don't move Cape Breton, sorry. Not even close.

Anonymouse

The NDP has a good candidate in Fundy Royal but how far can the party rise there? They finished well-back of the Conservative incumbent and the Liberals were heading towards "lose your deposit" country. Btw, this is another riding where the NDP wins Conservative votes, just look at the 2000 results and compare them to 2004 or 2006.

Doug

Ken Burch wrote:

Iggy's looking more and more like the Canadian Lloyd George.

 

The Strange Death of Liberal Canada. Somebody should write that.

Sean in Ottawa

Now don't feel sorry for Ignatieff. The person who is really crying and desperate here is Harper. Here is why:

If Layton forms a government and keeps a promise to bring in PR-- the radical right will never govern Canada again. The Cons will have to lean way out to the centre just to share power.

Harper will wake up hoping Prime Minister Layton won't live up to that promise. He went in to politics to advance a far right agenda that might get a fairly permanent screwing.

Layton of course may have little choice -- I think there is an underlying agreement here that Greens will vote heavily for the NDP for this policy alone.

The saddest leader after this election won't be E-May who will have won no seats in this election but because of PR would get one in the next election. No, it will be Harper, ironically the guy with the most seats, whose party may never govern again as it is currently configured.

For the Cons to Govern, they may well be forced into a merger with a rump of Liberals left over and a move to the political Centre.

Layton may not have just changed this election -- he may change the next century.

That, should make Harper Cry.

A Liberal-led coalition would not do this but a Layton-led one just might..

I think you will be able to say you heard it here on Rabble first.

The Singing Det...

Ken Burch wrote:

Iggy's looking more and more like the Canadian Lloyd George.

More the Asquith type, surely? Though presumably with a healthier lifestyle.

Policywonk

http://www.environics.ca/news-and-insights

This is the environics that people have been referring to in the other thread I think. It looks as though it is dated though. The latest EKOS is April 22-24 and environics April 18-21.

 

Northern-54

If Layton carries through with the promise to bring in proportional representation, it would make life much easier for those of us who find a Conservative majority something to fear.  How fast can this happen? 

Anonymouse

Vis a vis PEI, remember, you only need 6000 votes to win in a three-way race (say in Charlottetown).

Centrist

A large sample Ipsos poll for Metro Vancouver (with change from 2008 election):

Con: 42% (-1%)

NDP: 29% (+5%)

Lib: 23% (-1%)

Green: 6% (-3%)

 

Basement Dweller

Centrist wrote:

A large sample Ipsos poll for Metro Vancouver (with change from 2008 election):

Con: 42% (-1%)

NDP: 29% (+5%)

Lib: 23% (-1%)

Green: 6% (-3%)

Their analyst was saying 6-8 seats for the NDP in Vancouver.

Surrey North is a given so that takes us to six.

Beyond that, it could be one or two of:

Newton-North Delta

Vancouver Centre

PM-MR-Mission

I can't imagine anything else.

NorthReport

An article you won't see in thge Toronto Star nor the CBC. Laughing

 

I can just see 308.com saying oh my God, oh my God, this whole plan is backfiring on us - what to do, what to do.  Wink

 

NDP surges to strong second place in poll

 

Support for Canada's leftist New Democratic Party surged to within 6 points of the ruling Conservatives in an opinion poll on Monday that showed Prime Minister Stephen Harper with a tenuous hold on power.

 

http://ca.reuters.com/article/domesticNews/idCATRE73N1QY20110425

Policywonk

Sean in Ottawa wrote:

Hi Garth,

To answer your question:

44. Subject to sections 41 and 42, Parliament may exclusively make laws amending the Constitution of Canada in relation to executive government of Canada or the Senate and House of Commons.

A simple Act of parliament should do it.

It will require the support of the BQ and some Liberals or Cons.

No guarantee the votes would be there.

However, I don't think any constitutional amendment is required as the method of elections is not a Constitutional matter as it does nto affect the representation of the provinces etc.

The NDP would have to seperate this from eliminating the Senate as that would require a Constitutional amendment -- better just to make it elected and leave it as is.

I guess the more immediate question is what to do if the Senate were to defeat or hold up legislation passed by an NDP government or NDP-lead coalition government. Would Jack appoint senators like Mulroney did under section 26 to pass the GST in order to negate the Conservative majority, given the position to abolish the Senate? And who would be the Government Leader in the Senate?  Maybe questions for next week when we find out what the House of Commons will look like.

Electing the Senate would give it far more credibility (possibly too much) given that we have a parliamentary system rather than a  Presidential system with a separate Executive branch. A Senate elected by PR would be a check on a majority FPTP government though.

Sean in Ottawa

Hi Garth,

To answer your question:

From the Constitution:

44. Subject to sections 41 and 42, Parliament may exclusively make laws amending the Constitution of Canada in relation to executive government of Canada or the Senate and House of Commons.

A simple Act of parliament should do it.

It will require the support of the BQ and some Liberals or Cons.

No guarantee the votes would be there.

However, I don't think any constitutional amendment is required as the method of elections is not a Constitutional matter as it does not affect the representation of the provinces etc.

The NDP would have to separate this from eliminating the Senate as that would require a Constitutional amendment -- better just to make it elected and leave it as is.

Stockholm

Basement Dweller wrote:

Centrist wrote:

A large sample Ipsos poll for Metro Vancouver (with change from 2008 election):

Con: 42% (-1%)

NDP: 29% (+5%)

Lib: 23% (-1%)

Green: 6% (-3%)

Their analyst was saying 6-8 seats for the NDP in Vancouver.

Surrey North is a given so that takes us to six.

Beyond that, it could be one or two of:

Newton-North Delta

Vancouver Centre

PM-MR-Mission

I can't imagine anything else.

 

Normally Vancouver Centre would be very much in play - but it sounds like the NDP ended up nominating a weak last minute candidate so it will probably go to Hedy Fry again. Pity since Van Centre would be very winnable on paper.

Sean in Ottawa

I used to be against an elected Senate for just that reason that it would compete for legitimacy with the House. I came around because a clear jurisdiction would be fine and this legitimacy thing is less of a deal when you have coalitions and minorities.

I think that would be tricky for the NDP. Better to change the appointment system right off and take the politics out of it. NDP will have to take the high road on many things if they want to get re-elected.

Stockholm

dp

Life, the unive...

Here's how some of this polling data shakes out in one riding - Huron-Bruce

 

On Sunday Charlie Bagnato launched a series of bizarre, unprompted twitter attacks on the NDP candidate - Grant Robertson.

 

Bagnato accused Robertson of lacking in integrity amongst other things.  Which is almost funny, if it wasn't so offensive, for anyone who has ever spent time with Robertson.  He is about as straight a shooter as they come.   I once heard someone describe him as too honest to get elected.   Anyway it seems Baganto took exception to having his record examined, by callers, to a radio show and Robertson adding some concerns he had had to address with Bagnato in the past that the callers were referencing.   Robertson was civil, respectful, but was clear that a person's record is an indicator of what they might do as an MP. If you listen to Bagnato he seems to think he was the best mayor in history, when in reality he was a divisive figure in his own municiplaity and was roundly disliked on Bruce County Council.  He lost his mayors job in a landslide against him.

 

This lashing out tells me that the Liberal campaign is tanking in Huron-Bruce and that Bagnato is looking for someone to blame. The question now will be whether or not enough voters switch to the NDP to help defeat the Conservatives.

 

You can see the sorry story here - I would screen capture, but I don't actually know how to do it.

 

 

http://twitter.com/#!/LiberalCandidat

 

janfromthebruce

ah poor Charlie

 

Life, the universe, everything wrote:

Here's how some of this polling data shakes out in one riding - Huron-Bruce

 

On Sunday Charlie Bagnato launched a series of bizarre, unprompted twitter attacks on the NDP candidate - Grant Robertson.

 

Bagnato accused Robertson of lacking in integrity amongst other things.  Which is almost funny, if it wasn't so offensive, for anyone who has ever spent time with Robertson.  He is about as straight a shooter as they come.   I once heard someone describe him as too honest to get elected.   Anyway it seems Baganto took exception to having his record examined, by callers, to a radio show and Robertson adding some concerns he had had to address with Bagnato in the past that the callers were referencing.   Robertson was civil, respectful, but was clear that a person's record is an indicator of what they might do as an MP. If you listen to Bagnato he seems to think he was the best mayor in history, when in reality he was a divisive figure in his own municiplaity and was roundly disliked on Bruce County Council.  He lost his mayors job in a landslide against him.

 

This lashing out tells me that the Liberal campaign is tanking in Huron-Bruce and that Bagnato is looking for someone to blame. The question now will be whether or not enough voters switch to the NDP to help defeat the Conservatives.

 

You can see the sorry story here - I would screen capture, but I don't actually know how to do it.

 

 

http://twitter.com/#!/LiberalCandidat

 

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hatfield

is there any indication of how Toronto ridings are looking? Specifically, im wondering about Parkdale-High Park and Davenport. In Davenport, I have to say basd on lawn signs its going to be very close, but I'd love to see if any riding polls have been done. 

Policywonk

Sean in Ottawa wrote:

I used to be against an elected Senate for just that reason that it would compete for legitimacy with the House. I came around because a clear jurisdiction would be fine and this legitimacy thing is less of a deal when you have coalitions and minorities.

I think that would be tricky for the NDP. Better to change the appointment system right off and take the politics out of it. NDP will have to take the high road on many things if they want to get re-elected.

What kind of non-political appointment system would be feasible?

Sean in Ottawa

I can't think of anything other than election frankly-- you appoint the people who are elected.

 

ravenj

hatfield wrote:

is there any indication of how Toronto ridings are looking? Specifically, im wondering about Parkdale-High Park and Davenport. In Davenport, I have to say basd on lawn signs its going to be very close, but I'd love to see if any riding polls have been done. 

Many people I talk to (in Toronto) still judge the NDP from their memory of the Rae government.  Even though Jack is from Toronto, I haven't felt the Big Mo in TO.

adma

hatfield wrote:

is there any indication of how Toronto ridings are looking? Specifically, im wondering about Parkdale-High Park and Davenport. In Davenport, I have to say basd on lawn signs its going to be very close, but I'd love to see if any riding polls have been done. 

Well, I did catch a homespun bit of sign-disfigurement yesterday: somebody felt-penned an "I" over the "E" in "Peggy".

I'd watch those PHP polls; after all, '08's polls called for Peggy Nash to hold vs Kennedy...until election day came, and it proved otherwise a la Britain in '92...

NorthReport

ravenj

 

Well let's see what happens tomorrow, Tuesday evening.

Doug

I agree. Unfortunately, the NDP is still Raedioactive in Ontario and so I don't expect large gains here.

Sean in Ottawa

Sad given that the same people that hold Rae responsible for the economy at the time let Harper off the hook for the recession. Clear double standard. You may not like Rae but it is important people understand the context of the Rae government if they want to bring it up now:

1) global recession

2) Free Trade adjustment crisis with whole industries being put out of business

3) Massive cuts to transfer payments from Ottawa damaging provincial revenues

4) Not only no stimulus but massive federal program cuts

5) A huge consumer tax increase through the GST

6) The Ontario had just lost court cases related to FN land claims and pay equity-- costing billions and NDP did not want those people to have to wait longer.

7) The Liberals had hidden a massive deficit that was only fully apparent after the election.

8) The propaganda worked overtime -- signs saying "taxed off at Bob Rae" went up before the NDP's first budget to try to make people associate the Federal GST brought in by Federal Conservatives with the Provincial NDP. Enough people were unsophisticated enough to buy it

These are the contexts people judging the Rae government need to know.

 

Yes Rae was still arrogant

The NDP made mistakes.

The NDP did not do everything they promised.

But the above context meant the government did not have even a remote hope of being successful even had they done everything perfectly and even if Rae had been a perfect magician.

The NDP did get people mad but they were not in the least responsible for the situation in the economy.

 

Aristotleded24

Any pollling from Manitoba? Churchill should be safe, I'm wondering if things have the potential to change in Selkirk, Dauphin, and Brandon.

Sean in Ottawa

I really don't see that -- Selkirk the Cons had 60+% Dauphin 56+% Brandon 51+% Leads of over 30%.

Stockholm

I am not convinced that the NDP is held back in Toronto by memories of the Rae government. It has now been almost 20 years since the NDP was in power in Ontario - how many people actually have any memory of that era. In fact, every poll I have seen says that Ontarians have much worse retrospective memories of the Harris government than they do of the Rae government and in any case, as has been said a million times - Bob Rae is a Liberal!

Anyways, we shall see what happens in Toronto this time. Ekos says NDP support in Ontario is up to 23% and so does Ipsos. Other polls say its more like 18%. I think the "echo effect" from Quebec is just starting to hit Toronto!

NorthReport

That's the reason I was supporting a name change for the party but now is not the time to discuss that.

 

Of course Rae's reign is being used against the NDP, and has been used against the NDP provincially and federally ever since.

 

Get real - did you think Bob Rae would say anything different. WTF!!!

 

Is the legacy of Rae's days in power keeping Jack back?

Now in his 11th campaign, Mr. Rae is largely a low-profile Ontario road warrior, door-knocking with Liberal candidates in well-known electoral hot spots. As one might expect, he strongly dismisses any suggestion that he's a drag on the competition.

"Frankly, you can write that down if you want, but I just think it's bullshit," Mr. Rae said in an interview Monday. "After 20 years? I still have a very strong level of support across the province personally, and I don't see that as a factor in terms of the NDP situation overall. I do think that's a bit of a stretch."

But others say Mr. Rae's five years in office might be why Ontarians are reluctant to get solidly behind the federal NDP Leader.

 

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/is-the-legacy-of-raes-days-in-power-keeping-jack-back/article1998701/

 

Doug wrote:

I agree. Unfortunately, the NDP is still Raedioactive in Ontario and so I don't expect large gains here.

Arthur Cramer Arthur Cramer's picture

Any numbers for Winnipeg North?

Sean in Ottawa

I think the Toronto media is the most hostile in the country and spreads lies and opinion framed as news. Why look further?

ghoris

It's ironic that once upon a time, Toronto was known as "Tory Toronto" and the Liberals couldn't buy a seat there. Now it's the last remaining bastion of solid Liberal support. The socialist barbarians are at the gates of the West Island of Montreal. Harper and the Cons appear making serious inroads in the 905 and the Liberals have already been virtually wiped out in Ontario outside the GTA. But nobody has made a dent in the Liberals' near-monopoly over 416 seats, and it seems likely the Liberals will hold all or virtually all of their Toronto seats (perhaps losing Parkdale to the NDP and possibly York Centre or Eglinton-Lawrence to the Tories). As I joked to a friend, if the current polling trends continue through to election day and materialize at the ballot box, the Liberals may have to start calling themselves the "Bloc Torontois" after Monday.

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