Federal polling - April 28

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Sean in Ottawa

The attacks are very heavy now threatening gas increases etc. The Cons and Liberals are going to town and the media is on their side.

This will be a rough 3 days

Winston

 

Northern Shoveler wrote:

NorthReport wrote:

Perhaps Harris Decima polls should be Cons - 33%, NDP - 32%, Libs - who cares?  

Actually after having had that line thrown at me as an NDP voter for forty years I don't find the joke particularly funny.  I was hoping we would not be as arrogantly dismissive of 20% to 25% of the voters as other s have been of the NDP. I thought we were better than our opponents.

Agreed!

We shouldn't be very cocky...I'm troubled by the fact we have been trending down (albeit only slightly) in the EKOS numbers the last few days.

We should not be opening the champagne just yet, and gloating at the Liberals (as much as I would absolutely love to wipe the smug arrogance off their faces) is not on!

Doug

Speaking of the gas price thing...

 

Harper's gas price warning based on incorrect tweet

 

This is what happens when tweet meets twit.

finois finois's picture

on power and panel la presse reporter said he had scoop for tommorrow.

something about Bloq Quebecois supporting new democrats to put social democrats in ottawa.

did anyone get the quip total

NorthReport

Some folks are getting carried away and twisting things around.

I was referring to Harris Decima whose polling is dated, It started on April 20th, a long time ago in the scheme of things, and that the NDP may be within 1% of the Cons, and the who cares comment was about the race for first place, because the Liberals are not a factor there. The Libs are proably at around 20% in the Harris Decima now. Carry on brilliant ones. 

 

By-the-way, a journalist on CTV just said Michael Ignatieff's seat may be in play.

And another journalist stated that some Bloc folks are encouraging Quebec voters to vote NPD so social democrats will have a lot of clout in Ottawa.

Did it ever occur to folks that maybe Harris Decima did not want to release stats that are too current because of the strength they may show  for the NDP?

NorthReport

You got it - that's what he said.

alan smithee alan smithee's picture

finois wrote:

on power and panel la presse reporter said he had scoop for tommorrow.

something about Bloq Quebecois supporting new democrats to put social democrats in ottawa.

did anyone get the quip total

 

Check and mate.

Beautiful.

Nathaniel Smith

WHAT DOES IT ALL MEAN!!!!!!!!!!!!!! 

finois finois's picture

alan smithee wrote:

finois wrote:

on power and panel la presse reporter said he had scoop for tommorrow.

something about Bloq Quebecois supporting new democrats to put social democrats in ottawa.

did anyone get the quip total

MY JAW DROPPED WHEN I HEARD THIS

WE WOULD WIN NEARLY EVERY SEAT

This cannot be real..

 

Check and mate.

Beautiful.

Steve_Shutt Steve_Shutt's picture

Re: NDP Arrogance - come on people, we can be better than that.  Not saying we can't smile from ear to ear but humility is good for the soul and even better for the seat count.

Re: Bloc supporters for Jack, sounds like "winning conditions" to me.  Perhaps we don't need to bribe Quebecers to wave the flag but can instead demonstrate some shared values (or rather show that Quebec views on social policies and progressive economics are not foreign in the ROC but were simply hiding in our nineteeth-century FPTP electoral system.

Policywonk

Basement Dweller wrote:

ghoris wrote:

Today's Harris-Decima poll has CPC 35, NDP 30, LIB 22. CP story here.

Articles says theres a two point gap between the CONS and NDP in BC.

FFS, I have no idea whats happening here. NDP could have two more seats or a dozen.

http://www.harrisdecima.ca/news/releases/201104/1160-conservatives-lead-...

The press release has a 9 point lead in BC (39,30), with the Liberals trailing badly at 18. The Ontario results are interesting with the Liberals slightly ahead of the Conservatives?! not that far ahead of the NDP (34,33,25). I'm not sure why they bother to do two week polling, and even one week polling would fail to catch the trend very well. The Quebec figure is consistent with other polling, but perhaps it hides an even greater increase given the numbers a week ago.

Doug

finois wrote:

on power and panel la presse reporter said he had scoop for tommorrow.

something about Bloq Quebecois supporting new democrats to put social democrats in ottawa.

did anyone get the quip total

 

Sounds like they're trying to sabotage the NDP in the rest of the country. The answer has to be a thanks, but no thanks.

Policywonk

Winston wrote:

 

Northern Shoveler wrote:

NorthReport wrote:

Perhaps Harris Decima polls should be Cons - 33%, NDP - 32%, Libs - who cares?  

Actually after having had that line thrown at me as an NDP voter for forty years I don't find the joke particularly funny.  I was hoping we would not be as arrogantly dismissive of 20% to 25% of the voters as other s have been of the NDP. I thought we were better than our opponents.

Agreed!

We shouldn't be very cocky...I'm troubled by the fact we have been trending down (albeit only slightly) in the EKOS numbers the last few days.

We should not be opening the champagne just yet, and gloating at the Liberals (as much as I would absolutely love to wipe the smug arrogance off their faces) is not on!

It's still way within the margin of error. The fact that we are a clear second in all of the polls and within striking distance of the Conservatives is sinking in. It took a few days for the Quebec results to result in a rise in the rest of Canada. Perhaps Ipsos is waiting for results that show us dropping down though.

NorthReport

FWIW a Quebec political commentator on CTV said today he expects the NPD to obtain about 30 seats in Quebec, and that the Bloc will receive 25-30 seats.  

ghoris

Doug wrote:

finois wrote:

on power and panel la presse reporter said he had scoop for tommorrow.

something about Bloq Quebecois supporting new democrats to put social democrats in ottawa.

did anyone get the quip total

 

Sounds like they're trying to sabotage the NDP in the rest of the country. The answer has to be a thanks, but no thanks.

Agreed. The Bloc is not on our side, and we should never forget that. 

ghoris

NorthReport wrote:

FWIW a Quebec political commentator on CTV said today he expects the NPD to obtain about 30 seats in Quebec, and that the Bloc will receive 25-30 seats.  

Seems like a reasonable guess. Quebec is going to be by far the most interesting province to watch on Monday.

alan smithee alan smithee's picture

I had to take a valium today when I saw Harpeur warn that an NDP government would 'do irreparable harm to Canada'

What a deluded shithead.

Take a look at your own track record for the last 5 years and all the little goodies you have in store for this country with a majority,dickhead.

Irreparable damage?

What about the agenda to destroy Canada as everybody knows it?

Anyhow,it's not looking like he'll get a chance to as of May 3....Thank gawd.

bekayne

Krago wrote:

 

Atlantic

Nanos (A25-27): Cons - 29.4%, Lib - 33.3%, NDP - 29.2%, Green - 5.1%, Oth - 3.0%

EKOS (A25-27): Cons - 28.9%, Lib - 31.5%, NDP - 32.0%, Green - 4.2%, Oth - 3.4%

2008 Election: Cons - 29.6%, Lib - 35.0%, NDP - 26.0%, Green - 6.0%, Oth - 3.3%

 

Conservative support is up in Newfoundland, meaning it is down elsewhere

Policywonk

NorthReport wrote:

FWIW a Quebec political commentator on CTV said today he expects the NPD to obtain about 30 seats in Quebec, and that the Bloc will receive 25-30 seats.  

That would mean the Liberals and Conservatives, plus the independent would get 15-20 seats between them. If we do get over 40%, given vote splits, 45-50 is more likely, leaving more like 5-10 for the others besides the BLOC.

bekayne

NorthReport wrote:

Nanos Regionals - 3 days ending April 27

ON
C - 41.1%
N - 26.1%
L - 27.9%

Considering the Conservatives dropped 5.8% in one day, it probably means the Conservatives were under 30% in last night's sample, with the NDP 1st & the Liberals 2nd

Malcolm Malcolm's picture

Policywonk wrote:

NorthReport wrote:

FWIW a Quebec political commentator on CTV said today he expects the NPD to obtain about 30 seats in Quebec, and that the Bloc will receive 25-30 seats.  

That would mean the Liberals and Conservatives, plus the independent would get 15-20 seats between them. If we do get over 40%, given vote splits, 45-50 is more likely, leaving more like 5-10 for the others besides the BLOC.

 

I agree that, normally a 40ish - 20ish - 15ish - 15ish spread would give the leading party more than a majority and possibly lots more.  That said, I think there is real organizational weakness in vast swaths of Quebec, while the Bloc activists are motivated to keep the furniture.  As a result, I'd expect the NDP to underperform and the Bloc to overperform in the seat count, even if the vote numbers remain fairly constant.

Pogo Pogo's picture

Malcolm wrote:

That said, I think there is real organizational weakness in vast swaths of Quebec, while the Bloc activists are motivated to keep the furniture.  As a result, I'd expect the NDP to underperform and the Bloc to overperform in the seat count, even if the vote numbers remain fairly constant.

That makes logical sense if the organized group has reliable knowledge of what is happening in different ridings.  Without this knowledge the extra push may be made in ridings that are lost causes or easily won.  Otherwise you have to go the extra step and also say that the extra work will result in higher vote percentages (which is not unreasonable).

Doug

I wonder how hard the Bloc has really had to work to win seats before, however. They might not have the necessary funds and volunteers either.

Pogo Pogo's picture

I am not overly sold on vote pulling as a salvation of a lousy campaign.  I think it can increase a vote total by 3-5% which is nothing to sneeze at but not a panacea for beating back an electoral wave.

Policywonk

Stockholm wrote:

Hot off the press - the first riding poll I've seen of an NDP pick-up in Quebec in an riding that would never have been on the radar screen:

Le Nouvelliste reports that NDP candidate Robert Aubin (a music teacher in a seminary!) is at 42% while the BQ incumbent is at 28%!

What riding is that?

Stockholm

Hot off the press - the first riding poll I've seen of an NDP pick-up in Quebec in an riding that would never have been on the radar screen:

Le Nouvelliste reports that in Trois-Rivieres NDP candidate Robert Aubin (a music teacher in a seminary!) is at 42% while the BQ incumbent is at 28%!

Northern-54

Perhaps the BLOC will not have so easy a time getting their voters to the polls.  When a party has had no real opposition for a long time in many ridings, it is only natural to get lazy and not keep track of who one's voters are.  They also may have been lied to by a lot of voters.  Voters who change parties are more likely to lie to the original party.  I think, if Quebecers believe that the NDP can unseat Harper as Prime Minister on May 2, they will vote NDP in large numbers, similar to those in the NANOS poll today, a 17 point margin.  If there is a 17 point margin in a 4-party race, the NDP will win a lot more ridings than 30.  If the differential is 10 as in other polls, then I think that 30 seats is about what the NDP will get. 

Stockholm

sorry Trois-Rivieres

edmundoconnor
ghoris

Trois-Rivieres, I believe.

(My apologies but I still to this day have not figured out how to type accents on a Mac.)

Incidentally, the most recent post for this riding on the Election Prediction Project predicts an NDP win. A sudden show of NDP strength in this area certainly seems within the realm of possibility, given that a poll about a week ago was showing surprising NDP strength in the Bloc's Saguenay heartland.

Life, the unive...

As an aged vetern of elections past, this has the feel of 1990 in Ontario to me (something I said before the polls broke so I winTongue out)

I am willing to go out on a limb and suggest for every vote the Liberals or Conservatives gain by their scare tactic attacks- two will be driven the other way out of digust.  So rather than declining I predict that the NDP will actually surge ahead of the Conservatives and win the popular vote.   This is exactly what happened in Ontario, for those old enough to remember, the more over-the-top the attacks the more it actually fed into the reasons people were switching to the NDP in the first place.    The Liberals and Conservatives have picked the wrong strategy here as people will just see it as more of the same old bullshit out of Ottawa.

ghoris

alan smithee wrote:

I had to take a valium today when I saw Harpeur warn that an NDP government would 'do irreparable harm to Canada'

'Harpeur' - freudian slip, alan? ;)

Speaking of taking valium, if the NDP does make a significant breakthrough in Quebec, I can only hope Aislin will reprise his famous cartoon of Levesque after the 1976 election, with Jack telling everyone to 'Take a valium!'

ghoris

Life, the universe, everything wrote:

As an aged vetern of elections past, this has the feel of 1990 in Ontario to me (something I said before the polls broke so I winTongue out)

I am willing to go out on a limb and suggest for every vote the Liberals or Conservatives gain by their scare tactic attacks- two will be driven the other way out of digust.  So rather than declining I predict that the NDP will actually surge ahead of the Conservatives and win the popular vote.   This is exactly what happened in Ontario, for those old enough to remember, the more over-the-top the attacks the more it actually fed into the reasons people were switching to the NDP in the first place.

Interesting perspective. I was only 10 at the time (and living one province over), but I note that in his memoirs Rae seemed to think that the last-minute Liberal attack ads actually worked and brought some people back from the brink of an NDP vote. He wrote that the NDP's overnights had them into the 40s before the attacks started, then falling back into the high 30s right at the end of the campaign.

Tommy_Paine

I had a similar thought today.... Layton holding up a copy of the Globe and Mail, and with a big smile, bragging how the Globe didn't endorse him....

 

 

NorthReport

Harper musing about an NDP victory?

 

John Ivison: Harper says world 'would be astounded' if NDP won

Stephen Harper stood on the breezy rooftop deck of a hotel overlooking the American and Canadian falls. In one of his rare unscripted comments, the Conservative leader ad libbed: "The winds of change." Nervous laughter ensued, until Rob Nicholson, the Tory candidate in the city, chimed in: "Blowing in our direction."

Not quite. Mr. Harper's lumbering campaign is in danger of being overtaken by the zippy Jack Layton express - new polls show the gap down to around five percentage points.

In an interview with the National Post and Postmedia News on board his campaign plane after the Falls photo op, the Conservative leader pronounced himself "optimistic" about a positive result on Monday but dialled up the rhetoric on the NDP just in case.

"I think the world would be astounded if Canada were to suddenly decide that a growing, deficit-reducing economy that is coming out of recession better than anybody else, would suddenly change course, would vastly blow up its expenditures, raise its taxes and send a message to the world, 'don't invest here'," he said.

"The leading party of the opposition [the NDP] doesn't believe in trade, doesn't believe in free trade with the United States, let alone anybody else. Ultimately what we're saying an NDP coalition would be unstable and wouldn't last very long. But no one should underestimate the damage it would to Canada's reputation, credibility and economy in the meantime."

 

http://fullcomment.nationalpost.com/2011/04/28/john-ivison-harper-on-the...

alan smithee alan smithee's picture

'the damage it would do to Canada's reputation and credibility'

How bad could it be,Harpie?

You already flushed it down the toilet.

Deluded asshat.

vermonster

Trois Rivieres  actually isn't a huge surprise. Party people I know have been talking up Aubin as a good candidate - local professor with a real history of community involvement  - and the riding is the kind of place that (working class, Francophone, urban) that specifically seems to be moving in this election. With the massive vote shift that has been happening, these are the kinds of ridings the NDP stands a damn good chance of winning.

For all the talk about parachuted and absentee candidates, university students, and the like filling up the NDP slate across Quebec, there are also a ton of really qualified, community-grounded candidates who will make great MPs.

Looking at a riding my riding analysis, right now I think that we're probably looking at around 42 seats (perhaps more) from Quebec. I'm hoping to spend a bit of free time either this evening or tomorrow night writing those up and will post here so people can get a handle on who some of the new MPs are going to be and the kinds of places we could be pulling out a victory. People will be very pleasnatly surprised.

 

 

 


 

 

 

 

adma

And remember, too: if there's a big haul from Quebec, the bulk of those will be w/percentages in 30s and 40s (if not 20s).  Btw/that and the huge advantage CPC holds in Alberta seats, we may be looking at a BC '96-esque victory in seat totals if not in vote share...

Vansterdam Kid

Quote:
Harper said: "I think the world would be astounded if Canada were to suddenly decide that a growing, deficit-reducing economy that is coming out of recession better than anybody else, would suddenly change course, would vastly blow up its expenditures, raise its taxes and send a message to the world, 'don't invest here'," he said.

Utter bullshit from a guy who has led a government that's not only worsened the social deficit in this country, but has also driven the country's finances into the ground by growing the deficit through his incompetence and ideologically extremist right-wing vision. It's not surprising they wouldn't run the government well because they don't believe in government as a tool for good, so why run it well and prove social democrats right? As for his economic management the only reason Canada hasn't gone into as much of an economic nose dive as other industrialized economies is because we haven't deregulated our banking sector to the degree that other countries have. If he had his way we would've deregulated it and our economy would be in the toilet. His lies are tiresome and they need to be called what they are. Lies.

janfromthebruce

Thanks Vermonster for letting us know. He does sound like a super NDP candidate. And welcome & so glad you posted.

 

vermonster wrote:

Trois Rivieres  actually isn't a huge surprise. Party people I know have been talking up Aubin as a good candidate - local professor with a real history of community involvement  - and the riding is the kind of place that (working class, Francophone, urban) that specifically seems to be moving in this election. With the massive vote shift that has been happening, these are the kinds of ridings the NDP stands a damn good chance of winning.

For all the talk about parachuted and absentee candidates, university students, and the like filling up the NDP slate across Quebec, there are also a ton of really qualified, community-grounded candidates who will make great MPs.

Looking at a riding my riding analysis, right now I think that we're probably looking at around 42 seats (perhaps more) from Quebec. I'm hoping to spend a bit of free time either this evening or tomorrow night writing those up and will post here so people can get a handle on who some of the new MPs are going to be and the kinds of places we could be pulling out a victory. People will be very pleasnatly surprised.

 

 

 


 

 

 

 

______________________________________________________________________________________ Our kids live together and play together in their communities, let's have them learn together too!

alan smithee alan smithee's picture

Vansterdam Kid wrote:

Quote:
Harper said: "I think the world would be astounded if Canada were to suddenly decide that a growing, deficit-reducing economy that is coming out of recession better than anybody else, would suddenly change course, would vastly blow up its expenditures, raise its taxes and send a message to the world, 'don't invest here'," he said.

Utter bullshit from a guy who has led a government that's not only worsened the social deficit in this country, but has also driven the country's finances into the ground by growing the deficit through his incompetence and ideologically extremist right-wing vision. It's not surprising they wouldn't run the government well because they don't believe in government as a tool for good, so why run it well and prove social democrats right? As for his economic management the only reason Canada hasn't gone into as much of an economic nose dive as other industrialized economies is because we haven't deregulated our banking sector to the degree that other countries have. If he had his way we would've deregulated it and our economy would be in the toilet. His lies are tiresome and they need to be called what they are. Lies.

 

I completely agree.

And everything that comes out of that man's mouth is a lie...He's pathological.

NorthReport

Initially before the orange crush started I thought the NDP might have been able to win 70 seats. Now I think the NDP have a very good chance of coming first in number of seats Monday nite. I'm assuminhg Harper will be a man of his word, and that he was not just telling another lie, when he said the party who gets the most seats governs.

Election campaign 2011 enters 'uncharted territory,' say strategists, observers
The campaign to Monday's election has entered 'uncharted territory,' with the NDP poised to capture a record number of seats and official opposition

Conservative commentators suggested that even though Mr. Harper and Mr. Ignatieff have attempted to dismiss the notion Mr. Layton could emerge as the Prime Minister-elect, with Mr. Harper on Thursday claiming an NDP government would produce gas hikes up to 14 cents a litre through its plan to limit greenhouse gases through emission caps, strategists do not rule the possibility out.

http://www.hilltimes...vers_04-28-2011

edmundoconnor

For all the talk of 'unqualified' candidates, I notice how little attention the media is giving to a Liberal party that has a proven white supremacist as one of its candidates. Kind of puts the trivial scuttlebutt we've been hearing into perspective. Seriously. if this is the best they've got (and one would wonder why they'd be keeping anything in reserve this late in the game), then this is darn small beer.

edmundoconnor
Arthur Cramer Arthur Cramer's picture

I am glad that everyone is feeling so optimistic. One of the things I have always liked over my life time as a New Dem is our genuine humility, and ability to treat others with respect, regardless of how we were being treated.

It is a fact that one of the things Canadians have admired, is how the NDP, through its leader, has always shown itself first and foremost focused on meeting the needs of Canadians. The NDP through its leaders has had a long and proud traditon from Tommy Douglas, Steven Lewis, Audrey McClauchlin, Ed Broadbent and now Jack, of working with the government. It is a proud heritage that I hold on to. No gloating, no postering,  no blustering, just lets do the work Canadians expect of us, and lets make sure we treat this with whom we disagree with respect.

So please folks, please keep this in mind. The only thing we know for sure is the election is almost upon us all. Work hard, stay optimistic, be proud, but most importantly, treat others with respect and courtesy. Thanks for hearing me out.

NorthReport

Very well said Arthur and thanks.

NorthReport

What are we looking at here - 125 seats?

Crunching the surge: Where the NDP could pick up seats
Some number crunchers suggest the New Democrats could hold a third of the bench-space in a reconfigured House of Commons after the May 2 election thanks to a dramatic surge in support that began mid-campaign.

But figuring out where those seats could be won is not easy. The burgeoning enthusiasm for Jack Layton's party could drop off - or grow - in these last few days. And vote splitting with the Liberals and the Bloc Québécois could create unforeseen outcomes.

http://www.theglobea...article2002898/

Winston

Arthur Cramer wrote:

So please folks, please keep this in mind. The only thing we know for sure is the election is almost upon us all. Work hard, stay optimistic, be proud, but most importantly, treat others with respect and courtesy. Thanks for hearing me out.

Great points, Arthur (the least I expect from a fellow Winnipegger for what it's worth).  Glad you're not feeling so pessimistic these days!  Who knows?  I get the strange feeling that Orange Tide is starting to lap at the shores of our fair province.

bagkitty bagkitty's picture

When does the blackout on poll results descend upon us?

Ken Burch

It's probably on Sunday.

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