Federal Polling-April 29

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Ken Burch
Federal Polling-April 29

Continued from earlier Federal Polling threads.

Issues Pages: 
inukjuak inukjuak's picture

I presume our poll dealers are holding on to their new stuff until the royal wedding is over...jitter jitter jitter.

Fidel

Yes, there's nothing like a royal wedding to divert our attention away from democracy. They should have just eloped and left us poor slobs to deal with reality. A ladder would have been a lot cheaper.

JeffWells

Nanos:

 

CON:36.4 (-.02)

NDP: 31.2 (+.08)

LIB: 22.0 (+.01)

Northern-54

The regional results of the poll are as follows:

Atlantic:

Liberal 35.4%

Conservative 29.2%

NDP 25.8%

Northern-54

Quebec:

NDP 41.4%

BLOC 23.6%

Liberal 16.1%

Conservative 15.8%

 

Northern-54

Ontario: 

Conservative 36.3%

Liberal 29.3%

NDP 28.5%

finois finois's picture

on nanos we pick up another point.

Let's not hope the election is too soon.

My favorite number in the new nanos is ontario.

conservative dropping ndp surge has hit ontario.

look at number change over last 8 days

From april 21 until April 29 we have gone up by over 10% in popular vote.

THE MEDIA MUST NOW ADMIT THE SURGE HAS HIT ONTARIO

Northern-54

Prairies:

Conservative 60%

NDP 22.8%

Liberal 13.3%

 

Northern-54

British Columbia:

Conservative 43%

NDP 35.2%

Liberal 18.2%

 

edmundoconnor

That's a high, even considering the relentless attack pieces rained down on the party by the Tories, Liberals and the media. The vote looks to be fairly resilient.

edmundoconnor

Northern-54 wrote:

Ontario: 

Conservative 36.3%

Liberal 29.3%

NDP 28.5%

Less than 1% between us and the Liberals. That's bad, bad news for any Liberals in tight races with the NDP.

Northern-54

What I see in this poll is that there is a shift to the Liberals where they were traditionally strong (Atlantic Canada) and a shift to the NDP where it is has been traditionally strong (British Columbia) and a shift to the Conservatives where they have been traditionally strong (Prairies).  Ontario is a three-way fight and it looks like the BLOC continues to be reduced in Quebec. 

I remember that three nights ago we had an unusually big night (looked like an outlier in our favour by Nanos) and tomorrow we can expect a decline in the NDP vote (unless of course we get another night where we have 49% in Quebec). 

 

finois finois's picture

By election day we may be the alternative in Ontario.

These Ontario and BC numbers moving up daily are the real surge now

Ontario is on the verge of tipping a lot of seats to the NDP

I Can feel the momentum here as some conservatives are switching to Jack

adma

edmundoconnor wrote:

Northern-54 wrote:

Ontario: 

Conservative 36.3%

Liberal 29.3%

NDP 28.5%

Less than 1% between us and the Liberals. That's bad, bad news for any Liberals in tight races with the NDP.

But, compared to previous polls, it *could* be good news for Liberals in tight races w/the Conservatives.  Remember: a few Nanoses ago, it appeared the Cons were headed for a blowout--they've plummeted some ten points or so...

JeffWells

For the sake of Ontarioans who still believe a Liberal vote means "Anybody But Harper," I hope the analysis of Craig McInnes gets a lot of attention:

 

Quote:

New political landscape may still leave Harper on top, since Liberal backrooms would never allow a deal that puts Layton in charge
...

Bedrock Liberal supporters will already be unhappy with Ignatieff if the result of his first campaign as leader is to drive away voters and lose seats. There will be immediate pressure on him to make way for someone else.

Among those supporters are the corporate leaders who for generations kept the party afloat. It's hard to imagine they will countenance their party propping up a government that they have long warned would be ruinous for the economy and rattle the stock markets.

http://www.vancouversun.com/news/decision-canada/Layton+under+realistic+...

Sean in Ottawa

Nervous times the media is especially unkind.

Why has the NDP not come out and blasted the Con platform?

NDP should have some strong words saying Liberal platform mirros NDP in many respects except ours is believable and has job creation in it and Con platform blows money through unwise spending and tax cuts.

Still I'd be happy to hold these numebrs and I would prefer opposition to government for a bit rather than govern with over 50% of MPs unknowns If we could do this in two steps it might be more secure.

JeffWells

The day that created the "NDP is in first" buzz drops off tomorrow's numbers. That will be the first Nanos to suggest what impact the negative coverage is having.

NorthReport

Most Recent polling:

Date / Pollster / Cons / NDP / LIbs / Bloc
Apr 29 / Nanos / 36.4% / 31.2% / 22.0% / 5.7% / NDP within 5.2% of first place
Apr 28 / Harris D / 35% / 30% / 22% / NDP within 5% of first place
Apr 28 / EKOS / 34.8% / 27.5% / 22.3% / 6.1%
Apr 28 / Nanos / 36.6% / 30.4% / 21.9% / 6.0% / NDP within 6.2% of first place
Apr 27 / EKOS / 34.0% / 28.1% / 22.9% / 6.6% / NDP within 5.9% of first place
Apr 27 / Forum / 34.0% / 31.0% / 22.0% / / NDP within 3% of first place
Apr 26 / Nanos / 37.8% / 27.8% / 22.9% / 5.8%
Apr 26 / Angus R / 35.0% / 30.0% / 22.0% / 5.0% / NDP within 5% of 1st place
Apr 25 / EKOS / 33.9% / 27.9% / 24.0% / 6.0%
Apr 24 / EKOS / 33.7% / 28.0% / 23.7% / 6.2%
Apr 24 / Nanos / 39.2% / 23.6% / 25.6% /
Apr 21 / Envi / 39.0% / 25.0% / 22.0% /
Apr 20 / Ipsos / 43.0% / 24.0% / 21.0% / 6.0%
Apr 16 / Angus R / 36.0% / 25.0% / 25.0% /

NorthReport

NDP still closing the gap.

Nanos Research Poll, 3 days ending Apr 28

Conservatives ahead by 5%

Cons - 36.4%, Down 0.2%

NDP - 31.2%, Up 0.8%

Libs - 22.0%, Up 0.1%

Bloc - 5.7%, Down 0.3%

Grn - 4.0%, Down 0.1%

Und - 15.0%, Down 0.8%

http://www.nanosrese...428-BallotE.pdf

alan smithee alan smithee's picture

The 15% number of undecided voters is troubling.

Anonymouse

adma wrote:

edmundoconnor wrote:

Northern-54 wrote:

Ontario: 

Conservative 36.3%

Liberal 29.3%

NDP 28.5%

Less than 1% between us and the Liberals. That's bad, bad news for any Liberals in tight races with the NDP.

But, compared to previous polls, it *could* be good news for Liberals in tight races w/the Conservatives.  Remember: a few Nanoses ago, it appeared the Cons were headed for a blowout--they've plummeted some ten points or so...

Agreed.

David Hackett

Other than the Prairies (and Quebec ;) ) the NDP is within, or less than a point outside of, Margin of Error of the Tories in all regions in those Nanos numbers.

Anonymouse

alan smithee wrote:

The 15% number of undecided voters is troubling.

It's quite possibly numbers of those who won't vote.

knownothing knownothing's picture

The Prairie numbers from the different pollsters are all over the place. I imagine because it depends where you poll but man does Nanos differ from Forum or Ekos.

NorthReport

Here's some absolutely fantastic news for Layton's NPD.

Orange wave hits Quebec City - no Tory MP, Minister safe: Crop

NPD - 34%

Bloc - 27%

Cons - 27%

Libs - 10%

 

 

Sondage Crop-Le Soleil: vague néodémocrate sur la capitale nationale
La vague orange qui déferle sur le Québec est si forte qu'elle menace maintenant de balayer la capitale nationale, malgré sa réputation (plutôt méritée) de bastion de la droite. Aucun député conservateur, même ministre, n'y semble plus à l'abri, et pour tout dire, la victoire n'y est sûre pour absolument personne, d'après une série de sondages CROP-Le Soleil effectués dans les cinq circonscriptions de la ville et dans celle de Portneuf.

http://www.cyberpres...e-nationale.php

Policywonk

knownothing wrote:

The Prairie numbers from the different pollsters are all over the place. I imagine because it depends where you poll but man does Nanos differ from Forum or Ekos.

Don't forget Nanos includes Alberta in the Prairies, so it's hard to compare with some of the others. Even if the Conservatives retain all of their seats in the Prairies, they won't gain in Ontario the way it looked as though they might early in the campaign. Combined with loses in Quebec, they should lose seats overall.

Policywonk

JeffWells wrote:

The day that created the "NDP is in first" buzz drops off tomorrow's numbers. That will be the first Nanos to suggest what impact the negative coverage is having.

Not all of the coverage has been negative, and some of it reflects badly on Harper and Ignatieff. I have always been dubious about trying to devine trends based on one night's small sample. There is no evidence of slippage, and for all we know, the next Nanos may show us in a virtual tie with the Conservatives, especially if they keep dropping in Ontario.

Sean in Ottawa

JeffWells wrote:

For the sake of Ontarioans who still believe a Liberal vote means "Anybody But Harper," I hope the analysis of Craig McInnes gets a lot of attention:

 

Quote:

New political landscape may still leave Harper on top, since Liberal backrooms would never allow a deal that puts Layton in charge
...

Bedrock Liberal supporters will already be unhappy with Ignatieff if the result of his first campaign as leader is to drive away voters and lose seats. There will be immediate pressure on him to make way for someone else.

Among those supporters are the corporate leaders who for generations kept the party afloat. It's hard to imagine they will countenance their party propping up a government that they have long warned would be ruinous for the economy and rattle the stock markets.

http://www.vancouversun.com/news/decision-canada/Layton+under+realistic+...

I don't buy the piece-- it is thinly disguised attack on NDP. Here is why -- apart from the scare stuff- the Liberals supporting Harper is just as bad. I think the NDP would be better off in opposition right now rather than fight for a shaky government. I doubt the Liberals are in a mood to support Harper either. They are going to find it difficult distinguishing a middle ground position between the NDP and the Cons when most issues are either for or against. Mushy middle does not work well for 3rd parties.

Arthur Cramer Arthur Cramer's picture

Well, I can't delete the comment, but I can edit it. Pretend I wasn't here on this one. Lol.

Sean in Ottawa

Double post and ten minutes to load.

The Rabble servers are pushed to over capacity but sicne the bump is only during the election makes sense to be patient. Still is frustrating.

I hope Rabble can find some revenue streams to help the site in the longer term out of this massive traffic.

josh

The EKOS-iPolitics survey, which was completed Thursday evening, finds the Conservatives clinging to a narrowing five-point lead, drawing 34.5 per cent support of decided voters as the NDP presses from behind at 29.7 per cent. The Liberal freefall leaves the party with a new low of 20 per cent support.

The Green Party is stuck at 6.9 per cent, the Bloc Quebecois at 6.3 per cent and other parties hold a collective 2.7 per cent support.

Pollster Frank Graves said the latest numbers suggest the Conservatives are out of reach of winning a majority.

http://ipolitics.ca/2011/04/29/ndp-still-closing-on-conservatives-libera...

SwineFlewBy SwineFlewBy's picture

New Low for Grits?

http://ipolitics.ca/2011/04/29/ndp-still-closing-on-conservatives-libera...

The EKOS-iPolitics survey, which was completed Thursday evening, finds the Conservatives clinging to a narrowing five-point lead, drawing 34.5 per cent support of decided voters as the NDP presses from behind at 29.7 per cent. The Liberal freefall leaves the party with a new low of 20 per cent support.

The Green Party is stuck at 6.9 per cent, the Bloc Quebecois at 6.3 per cent and other parties hold a collective 2.7 per cent support.

Pollster Frank Graves said the latest numbers suggest the Conservatives are out of reach of winning a majority. With the Bloc Quebecois on the verge of a significant defeat, any two parties, combined, would have the needed 155 seats to command the confidence of the House of Commons.

The NDP surge shows no signs of receding, and Graves believes the party still has room to grow.

“There’s no evidence this wave is spent,” Graves said.

While voting patterns in most regions across the country appear to be locking in before election day, Ontario remains the wild card that will determine the outcome of the dramatically changing federal landscape. Graves said critical Liberal votes could stay put or could still turn to the NDP or the Conservatives.

The poll puts the Conservatives at 38.9 per cent in Ontario, still ahead of where they finished the 2008 election. The Liberals and NDP are effectively tied, at 26.6 and 26.2 per cent respectively.

With Liberal national numbers shrinking to an all-time low, Graves said it could mean the death knell for what was once deemed Canada’s natural governing party.

“The most successful political party in the advanced western world of the last 50 years could be on a banana peel about to go into political oblivion – it’s a real possibility,” he said.

The poll shows the NDP at 39.6 per cent in Quebec, while the Bloc Quebecois sits at 26.2 per cent and the Conservatives and Liberals trail with 13.6 and 13 per cent each. The Conservatives hold a six-point lead over the rising NDP in British Columbia, and are fighting a tight three-way race in Atlantic Canada.

The poll surveyed 3,353 adult Canadians, including 3,066 decided voters, between April 26-28, 2011. Results are considered accurate within plus or minus 1.8 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

Northern-54

EKOS Regionals:

British Columbia

Conservative 36.3%

NDP 30.5%

Liberal 15.3%

Green 12.5%

 

Northern-54

Alberta:

Conservative 57.7%

NDP 19.5%

Liberal 12.3%

Green 9.5%

Northern-54

Prairies:

Conservative 47.5%

NDP 25.7%

Liberal 16.8%

Green 7.4%

Policywonk

Sean in Ottawa wrote:

JeffWells wrote:

For the sake of Ontarioans who still believe a Liberal vote means "Anybody But Harper," I hope the analysis of Craig McInnes gets a lot of attention:

 

Quote:

New political landscape may still leave Harper on top, since Liberal backrooms would never allow a deal that puts Layton in charge
...

Bedrock Liberal supporters will already be unhappy with Ignatieff if the result of his first campaign as leader is to drive away voters and lose seats. There will be immediate pressure on him to make way for someone else.

Among those supporters are the corporate leaders who for generations kept the party afloat. It's hard to imagine they will countenance their party propping up a government that they have long warned would be ruinous for the economy and rattle the stock markets.

http://www.vancouversun.com/news/decision-canada/Layton+under+realistic+...

I don't buy the piece-- it is thinly disguised attack on NDP. Here is why -- apart from the scare stuff- the Liberals supporting Harper is just as bad. I think the NDP would be better off in opposition right now rather than fight for a shaky government. I doubt the Liberals are in a mood to support Harper either. They are going to find it difficult distinguishing a middle ground position between the NDP and the Cons when most issues are either for or against. Mushy middle does not work well for 3rd parties.

The Liberals will be in dire straits financially after this election anyway. They may see supporting either the NDP or Conservatives as political suicide, but at least if they support the NDP, they may do it in a coalition. That will depend on the make-up of the House of Commons on Tuesday. There may not be many Liberal left, given they are still dropping.

NorthReport

Sweet!

 

Most Recent polling:

Date / Pollster / Cons / NDP / LIbs / Bloc
Apr 29 / EKOS / 34.5% / 29.7% / 20.0% / 6.3% / NDP withing 4.8% of first place
Apr 29 / Nanos / 36.4% / 31.2% / 22.0% / 5.7% / NDP within 5.2% of first place
Apr 28 / Harris D / 35.0% / 30.0% / 22.0% / NDP within 5% of first place
Apr 28 / EKOS / 34.8% / 27.5% / 22.3% / 6.1%
Apr 28 / Nanos / 36.6% / 30.4% / 21.9% / 6.0% / NDP within 6.2% of first place
Apr 27 / EKOS / 34.0% / 28.1% / 22.9% / 6.6% / NDP within 5.9% of first place
Apr 27 / Forum / 34.0% / 31.0% / 22.0% /  NDP within 3% of first place
Apr 26 / Nanos / 37.8% / 27.8% / 22.9% / 5.8%
Apr 26 / Angus R / 35.0% / 30.0% / 22.0% / 5.0% / NDP within 5% of 1st place
Apr 25 / EKOS / 33.9% / 27.9% / 24.0% / 6.0%
Apr 24 / EKOS / 33.7% / 28.0% / 23.7% / 6.2%
Apr 24 / Nanos / 39.2% / 23.6% / 25.6% /
Apr 21 / Envi / 39.0% / 25.0% / 22.0% /
Apr 20 / Ipsos / 43.0% / 24.0% / 21.0% / 6.0%
Apr 16 / Angus R / 36.0% / 25.0% / 25.0% /

Northern-54

Ontario:

Conservatives 38.9%

Liberal 26.6%

NDP 26.2%

Green 6.5%

 

Northern-54

Quebec:

NDP 39.6%

BLOC 26.2%

Conservative 13.6%

Liberal 13.0%

Green 4.3%

Northern-54

Atlantic:

NDP 32.2%

Conservative 32.2%

Liberal 29.3%

Green 4%

knownothing knownothing's picture

I say there is no way the Liberals support the NDP. They will back the Torys and they can keep up the wars. They only pretend to stand for left wing values.

KenS

Ontario:

Beleted, but the same as elsewhere: first the NDP pulls up even with Liberals and gets ready to pass them.

Next: start eating into Conservative numbers. Not a lot of time left, bt the stage is well set, and even a couple percentage points will include a lot of tipping points in particular campaigns.

JeffWells

Thanks for the Ekos, that's making me happier.

Something I don't understand about Nanos, though. I read that the math suggested we were leading Tuesday and Wednesday. That we're still behind on Friday, doesn't that suggest that despite the incremental gain on the aggregate, Thursday was a really, really bad day?

 

NorthReport

It looks like we are heading for an NDP government

 

EKOS

NDP just jumped 2.5% on the Cons overnite

Cons - 34.5%, Down 0.3%

NDP - 29.7%, up 2.2%

Libs - 20%, Down 2.3%

Bloc - 6.3%

NDP still closing on Conservatives; Liberal declines continue:

http://ipolitics.ca/...lines-continue/

Anonymouse

This has become a surprisingly close race on the top-line numbers.

Policywonk

josh wrote:
The EKOS-iPolitics survey, which was completed Thursday evening, finds the Conservatives clinging to a narrowing five-point lead, drawing 34.5 per cent support of decided voters as the NDP presses from behind at 29.7 per cent. The Liberal freefall leaves the party with a new low of 20 per cent support.

The Green Party is stuck at 6.9 per cent, the Bloc Quebecois at 6.3 per cent and other parties hold a collective 2.7 per cent support.

Pollster Frank Graves said the latest numbers suggest the Conservatives are out of reach of winning a majority.

">http://ipolitics.ca/2011/04/29/ndp-still-closing-on-conservatives-libera...

Last night would appear to be an increase for us, give the last few days of EKOS polling. Wasn't Nanos' high for us the previous
night? Margins of error will be high for both, but the surge may well be continuing. Tied with the Liberals in Ontario and with the
Conservatives in Atlantic Canada. Looks like all of the negativity is working in our favour.

Northern-54

EKOS sample sizes are almost 3 times as large as NANOS.  EKOS uses an automated system where people can use the telphone key pad to input their preferences.  This eliminates interviewer bias.  EKOS lists political parties while Nanos asks for voters to pick their top two choices and the pick which one they like.

I prefer EKOS polls over Nanos this election.  They are less likely to gyrate significantly and obscure trends because of their absolute size.  Tomorrow's Nanos numbers are almost sure to show an NDP decline due to the inordinately large NDP share of the vote night being dropped off of the poll.  On the other hand, EKOS numbers are more stable because they survey 1100-1200 per night as opposed to 400.

SwineFlewBy SwineFlewBy's picture

NDP RISE CONTINUES AS LIBERALS SWOON AND CONSERVATIVES STUCK - April 29, 2011

Sean in Ottawa

Website suggests NDP besting MacKay

 

http://thechronicleherald.ca/Vote2011/1240736.html

 

bekayne

josh wrote:

Pollster Frank Graves said the latest numbers suggest the Conservatives are out of reach of winning a majority.

">http://ipolitics.ca/2011/04/29/ndp-still-closing-on-conservatives-libera...
No they don't. In about half of the Liberals remaining seats (in this poll, projected to about 50), the Conservatives are within 10% in at least half of them

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