Federal polling - started March 28, 2011

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NorthReport
Federal polling - started March 28, 2011

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Issues Pages: 
NorthReport

Nanos poll out on Wednesday

Aristotleded24

Lens Solution wrote:
JKR wrote:
NorthReport wrote:
Harris Decima - March 28, 2011

Ontario

Party / 08 GE / Mar 23 / Mar 28 / Change /

Cons / 39% / 38% / 38% / Down 1%

Libs  / 34% / 37% / 37% / Up 3%

NDP / 18% / 15% / 20% / Up 2%

The election is going to be decided in Ontario. These kind of numbers from Ontario leave the Conservatives with a smaller minority. If this is where Ontario's trending, the Conservatives are in trouble.
The Cons appear to be doing well in most polls.  I'm not sure if it's accurate that the Libs and NDP are up in Ontario and the Cons down.  We will have to see.  Hopefully the Cons will fail to make inroads with their much-desired "ethnic" plan.

Btw, people from smaller provinces like Sask. and PEI don't like to always hear that Ontario decides elections.  It makes it sound like other regions don't matter.  And there's no way to know in advance which province will determine an election.  Last time it was Quebec that determined the election because that was what stopped a Harper majority.  Quebec could end up being what denies Harper a majority this time too if he loses seats there.

It's also false, as Western Canada could play a huge role if the NDP wins enough support to take away Conservative seats. Remember Reform got their start in the West, and it was this base that was an essential building block in them making gains across Canada. And in 2005, it was an Independent MP from Surrey who cast the deciding vote on the Paul Martin budget.

Lens Solution

The challenge seems to be that there aren't very many vulnerable Cons in this election.  The only really vulnerable ones seem to be in Quebec.  There are a few races out West that were close for the NDP in 2008, but now some of those folks are incumbents (eg. Kelly Block, Dona Cadman, John Duncan etc.)  These Cons only won by small margins in 2008, but can they be taken down in 2011?  Hopefully so, but it will be hard work.

Another challenge is that the only vacant Con seats are in solid Con ridings (eg. the seats that were held by Stockwell Day, Chuck Strahl, John Cummins, Jay Hill etc.)  I wish the terrain was more favourable.

Stockholm

Here are the full details of the HD poll. Note that they have both the one week data from March 24-27 which is based on a sample size of 1,000 as well as the two week data from March 17-24 based on 2,000. The two week data yields more robust sample sizes in the regions, but obviously the one week data is all post budget and the dropping of the writ. Looks like the NDP has really gotten off to a good start!

http://www.harrisdecima.ca/sites/default/files/releases/2011/03/29/hd-20...

NorthReport

NorthReport wrote:

 

Harris Decima

Ontario

Party / 08 GE / Mar 23 / Mar 28 / Change /

Cons / 39% / 38% / 38% / Down 1%

Libs  / 34% / 37% / 32% / Down 2%

NDP / 18% / 15% / 20% / Up 2%

 

Quebec

Party / 08 GE / Mar 23 / Mar 28 / Change /

Bloc / 38% / 40% / 41% / Up 3%

Cons / 22% / 19% / 22% / No Change

Libs / 24% / 19% / 14% / Down 10%

NPD / 12% / 12% / 14% / Up 2%

 

edmundoconnor

*Low whistle*

NDP neck-and-neck with Liberals in Quebec, at 20% in Ontario, and 29% in BC. All with the Liberals stalling or nosediving. No wonder Chockula is going after NDP votes. He's in the fight for his political life. As is his party.

gyor

The NDP numbers in bc look good in the HD poll 29 vs 35 for the cons. With consentration in some ridings of the con vote this could be interesting if true.

Sean in Ottawa

If Harriss Decima is to be believed the NDP could pass the Liberals during this campaign.

In one sense it is terrifying. Can you imagine the I-told-you-sos we would hear from North Report?

Anyway, this could be a good thing. As well, there does not seem to be much ground being gained by Harper either. This could end up more than interesting.

Sean in Ottawa

What would all those strategic voting fetish people do if this happens? Will they call for the wholesale abandonment of the Liberals in most of the country?

NorthReport

Naw, I'd never do that Sean. It's not my fault I was born a fundamentalist NDPer.  Laughing

 

Sean in Ottawa wrote:

If Harriss Decima is to be believed the NDP could pass the Liberals during this campaign.

In one sense it is terrifying. Can you imagine the I-told-you-sos we would hear from North Report?

Anyway, this could be a good thing. As well, there does not seem to be much ground being gained by Harper either. This could end up more than interesting.

no1important

Quote:
Pollster Allan Gregg said the numbers show the Tory base is looking solid and strong, while the NDP is bleeding off traditional Liberal support, especially among women.

"It looks like the electoral tension has helped the Conservatives, and the actual election call looks like it has helped the Conservatives," said Gregg. ]

[url=http://www.winnipegfreepress.com/canada/breakingnews/conservatives-lead-... Wpg Free Press link- article of the Harris-decima poll[/url]

 

Hopefully the NDP bleed off enough in those ridings so the cons do not slip in up the middle...That is true about females as most I know seem to like Layton but he would lose some if Justin Trudeau was Lib leader as many females I know think he is hot stuff like his dad lol..

The other thing is the Liberals will blame NDP if Harper gets a majority or larger minority instead of looking at themselves as to why..

Ontario is the place to watch and with help of BC could easily give the cons aka Reformers aka Tea Baggers aka Republicans their majority they oh so desperately crave...

I also find it hard to believe 32% of females support Harper? I would imagine with a Harper majority they will be barefoot and pregnant and lose their reproductive rights ie abortion rights.

Sean in Ottawa

NorthReport wrote:

Naw, I'd never do that Sean. It's not my fault I was born a fundamentalist NDPer.  Laughing

 

Sean in Ottawa wrote:

If Harriss Decima is to be believed the NDP could pass the Liberals during this campaign.

In one sense it is terrifying. Can you imagine the I-told-you-sos we would hear from North Report?

Anyway, this could be a good thing. As well, there does not seem to be much ground being gained by Harper either. This could end up more than interesting.

Let's just say I would be delighted if you were given cause to crow about this!

I'd want to find you and share a bottle of wine....

Stockholm

no1important wrote:

.That is true about females as most I know seem to like Layton but he would lose some if Justin Trudeau was Lib leader as many females I know think he is hot stuff like his dad lol..

This is such sexist crap. Its funny how there is this never ending implication that women are so shallow that they will drop everything and vote for any candidate who they think is good looking - but no one ever claims men will vote for attractive women in politics. I'm waiting for someone to post about all the men in ontario who will vote NDP in October because they think Andrea Horwath is "hot".

gyor

Stockholm wrote:

no1important wrote:

.That is true about females as most I know seem to like Layton but he would lose some if Justin Trudeau was Lib leader as many females I know think he is hot stuff like his dad lol..

This is such sexist crap. Its funny how there is this never ending implication that women are so shallow that they will drop everything and vote for any candidate who they think is good looking - but no one ever claims men will vote for attractive women in politics. I'm waiting for someone to post about all the men in ontario who will vote NDP in October because they think Andrea Horwath is "hot".

no one would say that sort of thing because women would call them sexist. Maybe Justin should be upset that people are treating him like a cheap piece of meat. Or maybe he should be happy about it, the gods know I would be:)

Doug

It's entirely possible we'll see a poll with the NDP and Liberals tied, though it may just be due to statistical fluctuation. What happens after that point could get interesting.

Winston

no1important wrote:

Quote:
Pollster Allan Gregg said the numbers show the Tory base is looking solid and strong, while the NDP is bleeding off traditional Liberal support, especially among women.

"It looks like the electoral tension has helped the Conservatives, and the actual election call looks like it has helped the Conservatives," said Gregg. ]

[url=http://www.winnipegfreepress.com/canada/breakingnews/conservatives-lead-... Wpg Free Press link- article of the Harris-decima poll[/url]

 

Hopefully the NDP bleed off enough in those ridings so the cons do not slip in up the middle...That is true about females as most I know seem to like Layton but he would lose some if Justin Trudeau was Lib leader as many females I know think he is hot stuff like his dad lol..

Allan Gregg is on crack: his poll shows the NDP up two points over the last poll he did and that somehow shows the NDP is "bleeding support"?  Perhaps someone can explain that...

If the polls keep trending the way they are, we may need to start hoping it's the Liberals "bleeding enough" to the NDP.  All of this "bleeding" talk, however, ignores the fact that in many places (i.e. most of the West), a stronger Liberal party means more vote-splitting and more Tories.

no1important wrote:

I also find it hard to believe 32% of females support Harper? I would imagine with a Harper majority they will be barefoot and pregnant and lose their reproductive rights ie abortion rights.

I hate Harper too, and agree that he is trying to erode women's rights (among others), but that last statement was a little over the top, no?  I'm not sure how helpful that degree of rhetoric is.  We need to convince Tory voters to switch sides; rhetoric like that will just turn all but our own true believers off.

bekayne

Winston wrote:

Allan Gregg is on crack: his poll shows the NDP up two points over the last poll he did and that somehow shows the NDP is "bleeding support"?  Perhaps someone can explain that...

No, he said they were "bleeding off" support from the Liberals

NorthReport
Winston

bekayne wrote:

Winston wrote:

Allan Gregg is on crack: his poll shows the NDP up two points over the last poll he did and that somehow shows the NDP is "bleeding support"?  Perhaps someone can explain that...

No, he said they were "bleeding off" support from the Liberals

Thanks, bekayne.  Apparently, I can't read... :)

And sorry to Allan Gregg for casting aspersions on his choice of recreational drugs!

 

gyor

Winston wrote:

bekayne wrote:

Winston wrote:

Allan Gregg is on crack: his poll shows the NDP up two points over the last poll he did and that somehow shows the NDP is "bleeding support"?  Perhaps someone can explain that...

No, he said they were "bleeding off" support from the Liberals

Thanks, bekayne.  Apparently, I can't read... :)

And sorry to Allan Gregg for casting aspersions on his choice of recreational drugs!

 

Yeah everybody knows he prefers salvia! (kidding!)

NorthReport
NorthReport

Nik on the Numbers

The first wave of nightly tracking completed over the past three nights suggests that the Conservatives still maintain a comfortable 10 point lead over the Liberals. Ballot support remains at 38.4% for the Tories, 28.7% for the Grits, 19.6% for the NDP, 9.1% for the Bloc and 4.1% for the Greens. The overall disposition of party support is very similar to the research conducted mid March indicating that the attacks and counter-attacks from the respective parties and leaders has generally been a wash in the first few days of the campaign.

Among the key battlegrounds, the Tories have about a 10 point lead in Ontario and British Columbia while the Bloc enjoys a 14 point advantage in Quebec.

As the party leaders start to articulate platform proposals in the beginning of the campaign factors such as policies increased from 48 to 54 percent in terms of influencing the vote.

At 4 pm today, CTV News/Globe/Nanos will release polling on the top issues among Canadians, the Nanos Leadership Index which is a daily score on trust, vision and competence and new research on how Canadians feel about having an election.

The detailed tables and methodology are posted on our website where you can also register to receive automatic polling updates.

Methodology
A national random telephone survey is conducted nightly by Nanos Research throughout the campaign. Each evening a new group of 400 eligible voters are interviewed. The daily tracking figures are based on a three-day rolling sample comprised of 1,200 interviews. To update the tracking a new day of interviewing is added and the oldest day dropped. The margin of error for a survey of 1,200 respondents is ±2.8%, 19 times out of 20.

National Ballot Question: For those parties you would consider voting for federally, could you please rank your top two current local preferences? (Committed voters only - First Preference)

The numbers in parentheses denote the change from the Nanos National Omnibus conducted just before the election on March 15, 2011 (n=1,216; committed voters only n=949).

Canada (n=939 committed voters)
Conservative 38.4% (-0.2)
Liberal 28.7% (+1.1 )
NDP 19.6% (-0.3)
Bloc Quebecois 9.1% (-1.0 )
Green 4.1% (+0.3)
Undecided 21.7% (-0.3)

Vote Driver Question: Which of the following factors are most important to you today in influencing your vote [Rotate]? (n=1,200)

The numbers in parentheses denote the change from the Nanos National Omnibus conducted just before the election on March 15, 2011 (n=1,216).

Traditionally Vote for Party 8.9% (-0.7)
Party Leader 19.7% (-0.3 )
Party Policies 54.2% (+5.9 )
Local Candidate 12.4% (+0.1)
Unsure 4.7% (-5.2 )

Feel free to forward this e-mail. Any use of the poll should identify the source as the latest "CTV/Globe/Nanos Poll."

NorthReport
josh

No majority in those Nanos numbers.   

Slumberjack

How much for the teddy bear?

[ETA:  obviously the mods removed the entire spam post and accompanying teddy bear just to make me look silly]

Rob8305

[quote=josh]

No majority in those Nanos numbers.   

[/quote

 

Indeed. Those nuimbers would tend to suggest a result similar to 2006, which if we see that, would make things very interesting. Let Harper lay out his throne speech, vote it down and then form an opposition minority if one opposition party has more than 100 seats.

josh

Looks more like a halfway split between 2006 and 2008, at least with respect to Cons and Libs.

Tirumithir

Rob8305 wrote:

Indeed. Those nuimbers would tend to suggest a result similar to 2006, which if we see that, would make things very interesting. Let Harper lay out his throne speech, vote it down and then form an opposition minority if one opposition party has more than 100 seats.

Yes, that would be interesting.  I look forward to seeing Ignatieff dissembling about his No Coalition pledge.  But a lot would ride on the Liberals picking up at least a few seats from the Conservatives.  If the Liberals don't at least drag themselves up to the 90+ range, it will be hard to present themselves as a legitimate alternative government.

Rob8305

Yeah maybe around 135-140 tory seats. 

Also, I would have to reluctantly agree, despite my hatred for Harper, that the Libs need at least 95-97 seats and the NDP 40-45 to legitimately try to form a minority.

Like a CPAC-intervewed professor said, all Ignatieff has to do is say he ddn't rule out an accord, just a coalition. That should be all the wiggle room he needs.

Tirumithir

Rob8305 wrote:

Like a CPAC-intervewed professor said, all Ignatieff has to do is say he ddn't rule out an accord, just a coalition. That should be all the wiggle room he needs.

I still think Ignatieff should have said "Coalition if necessary, but not necessarily coalition".  However, since Harper seems to be fixated on the word "coalition", it was good that Ignatieff finally distanced himself unequivocally from the C-word.

When parliament sits and the results are as you describe, I'm sure Ignatieff will dig into his thesaurus and find a way to support an "accord" or an "entente".

JeffWells

Or the Liberals can just dump their leader again. They're pretty practiced at that. This time for someone who doesn't recoil from coalition like a vampire from sunlight. Rae's turn.

Overtaxed Overtaxed's picture

Please run Bob Rae.  He will do very well in Ontario....lol

no1important

Stockholm wrote:

no1important wrote:

.That is true about females as most I know seem to like Layton but he would lose some if Justin Trudeau was Lib leader as many females I know think he is hot stuff like his dad lol..

This is such sexist crap. Its funny how there is this never ending implication that women are so shallow that they will drop everything and vote for any candidate who they think is good looking - but no one ever claims men will vote for attractive women in politics. I'm waiting for someone to post about all the men in ontario who will vote NDP in October because they think Andrea Horwath is "hot".

 

Then why do women answer those polls then that ask that? Heck we saw the same with men and Sarah Palin, so what? Grow up and stop playing the victim.

[url=http://www.straight.com/article-374220/vancouver/2011-sex-survey-who-wou... down a touch[/url]

Lens Solution

On the subject of looks - it's human nature for people of both sexes, and all orientations, to notice whether a man or a woman is "hot".  As long as one isn't singling out any particular gender or group, it is not necessarily wrong to point out that some people are influenced by a candidate's looks.

gyor

Can you imagine what it would be like if Justin Beiber lead the cons? Thank god so called 'tween' girls can't vote! The other other leaders would be recieving death threats from girls young enough to be thier granddaughters.

josh

Nanos tracking:

Con     39.1% +0.7
Liberal 32.7% +4.0
NDP     15.9% -3.7
BQ      8.7% -0.4
Green  3.7% -0.4

 

http://www.nanosresearch.com/election2011/20110330-BallotE.pdf

janfromthebruce

Thank you Dolby I'm just so unempressed with you.

Boom Boom Boom Boom's picture

Not quite as big a lead for the Cons over the Libs as the last poll in Nanos. Still a month to go <sigh>. I don't know why we need seven-week campaigns. Three weeks or even two is enough!

 

Stockholm

er...the campaign is five weeks - 35 days

janfromthebruce

well Boom Boom, I know that there is no difference between the libs and the cons in terms of policies. I remember the election of 1993 when the libs won a huge majority with Chretien and everybody was singing happy days. In fact I was so politically naive that I even campaigned for the libs, and helped elect the most right-wing liberal ever - Paul Steckle in Huron-Bruce.

 

Everything the Mulroney Tories would do, the libs did it - NAFTA/FREE GRAB - sign on the bottomline. Cut social programs and transfer payments - right on brother. Keep the GST - righto!

 

This is the same crap, and so anybody who thinks their is air space between lib/con when even the TorStat admits there is very little difference in policy and direction, is just dreaming and in a stat of denial.

 

And after this election when it all comes true, I will be saying, well you voted for them. What didn't you get that "past behaviour" is a strong indicator of "future behaviour."

Arthur Cramer Arthur Cramer's picture

Sorry, I don't believe this poll. I am just not convinced that about 4% of voters would change their minds because of something done by a guy about whom most people are likely still unaware. Nope, don't believe it all.

Boom Boom Boom Boom's picture

Five weeks is still two or three weeks too long for me.Frown  And I'm always happy to see a poll that shows the Cons not getting their majority. Smile

Stockholm

Get used to the roller coaster folks - if you look at a chart of daily tracking by Nanos in the last two election campaigns - it looks like a EKG chart from having an cardiogram - there will be hills and valleys every step of thye way...if you let yoursself hyperventilate every day - you'll only end up with a bad case of hyper tension!

josh

With tracking polls, one day's results can distort the poll, high or low.  Probably good to wait two days or so to see if the Liberals' rise is for real.

 

Papal Bull

DEAR MODERATORS.

 

IF YOU REMOVE THAT ASCII POOH BEAR I WILL RAIN HOLY TROLL FIRE UPON THIS BOARD AND, LIKE, BE A TON LESS SOCIABLE WHEN WE HAVE ANOTHER GET TOGETHER.

 

-PAPAL 'NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!' BULL

 

edit: POOH FOREVER

 

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Boom Boom Boom Boom's picture

One for Pooh Bear and one for you there!

Sean in Ottawa

Please identify this spammer and sue.

knownothing knownothing's picture

I hope this is not a trend. It seems like the coverage is very hostile to the NDP.

 

bekayne

Boom Boom wrote:

Five weeks is still two or three weeks too long for me.Frown  And I'm always happy to see a poll that shows the Cons not getting their majority. Smile

But 47% for the Conservatives in Ontario is still too high

Stockholm

Actually, as usual, the regional number sin this pooll seem very whacky and all over the map and it all brings back memories of all the wild unlikely regional swings that nanos showed all through the last few election campaigns - some days you would get bizarre results like Liberals being in the lead on the Prairies - and losing in Ontario and then two days later it would be the exact opposite - all on days when nothing was happening - and of course the media tends to breathlessly overanalyse every little gyration every day - one day so and so is "surging" and the next day they are in "free fall". get used to it - it will only get worse and we still have 4.5 weeks to go!

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