Federal Polling - April 11

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NorthReport
Federal Polling - April 11

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NorthReport

Canadians' choice for best PM 

Harper - 47%

Layton - 35%

Ignatieff - 19%

 

http://www.vancouversun.com/Harper+still+seen+Canadians+choice+best+poll...

thorin_bane

Consdiering that I can't even find the last polling thread Ill repost what I put there.-

Yeah we all know how shitty the liberals are, But the cons aren't even interested in anyone elses opinions. SO I guess when we get a con majority instead of a liberal NDP coalition where jack can have actual influence on policy and make canadians stand up and notice how different all the parties  operate(see ontario in the 80's) some of you will be happy with "the harper government" demolishing democracy in our country.

We are talking about a party that is more dangerous than just wiping out social programs, but one that wants to destory opinion that is contrary to the chicago school of thought. Regardless of the enabling liberals(which is what you should show people) the cons have brought in some of the worst destabilizing events in canadian history. G20 and martial law ring a bell? That is arresting political opponents? We usually condemn other nations that have governments that do that. Spending tons on the militray and moving from the liberal "yeah we can go to war" to the con"bring on our next battle, we want a more combat oriantated role"

All the while increaseing the police state and making so many more things a criminal offence. Add to this spending us into the poor house without ANYTHING to show for....yeah but somehow the liberals are worse...do tell. I hate how the libs portray themselves as left and don't enact upon it unless shoved there. But at least when shoved they will follow through. The cons have no such compuctuation. They are worse versions of the liberals. Ones who have more scandals in lies come out in 5 years than mulroney and chretien governments combined. If you want to make a case for SOME former conservatives, sure. But the present republicans using the conservative name. NO, They are more dangerous to canada than any previous government we have ever had. This isn't fear mongering, its fact.

I am telling everyone I know to vote NDP because they are what the liberals pretend to be. But that doesn't mean that I would cheer for the libs to fall to 50 seats of it menas the bloc is at 47 and the NDP at 43. Because in the end it does us no good to have a more right wing gov with absolute rule. Given the rules the conservative put into place that allows news to lie(because they aren't as bad as the libs) and the new fox news north, what are the odds that when tied to the money they will pump into lies and bullshit, while eliminating per vote money, that much of anything of real substance will stay in the public mind. 

As it is many of us have trouble understanding how partisans and regular folk are allowing harper to hover anywhere close to 40% with the largest pile of scandals I can remember in such a short period of time. Not including all the secrecy and way he has completely cut off reporters from even questioning his governemtn..."hey let baird field this question so no stink is on me king harper." Do we even remember the last time we saw a scrum and receieved anything not just a straight talking point that is repeated ad nauseum from the rebulican playbook of denials. Including the hacks that pass as experts or worse as the moderator of political shows.

Life, the unive...

NorthReport wrote:

Canadians' choice for best PM 

Harper - 47%

Layton - 35%

Ignatieff - 19%

 

http://www.vancouversun.com/Harper+still+seen+Canadians+choice+best+poll...

 

For a sitting PM those are really pretty crappy numbers.   Not that the media would report that realistically, but a sitting PM automatically has a built-in substaintial advantage - even amongst other party supporters -and yet Harper is barely over his base.

janfromthebruce

And it's super news for Jack - for the progressive voter there is a clear choice here!

NorthReport

Another minute, another poll

 

Minority of Canadians believe Ignatieff can deliver on 'Family Pack' promises

 

http://www.vancouversun.com/Minority+Canadians+believe+Ignatieff+deliver...

Paulitical Junkie

Speaking of Sun Media, when does their "FOX News North" launch? I have no interest in watching it, but I'm surprised this potential Con propaganda outlet isn't up and running for the election.

Life, the unive...

NorthReport wrote:

Another minute, another poll

 

Minority of Canadians believe Ignatieff can deliver on 'Family Pack' promises

 

http://www.vancouversun.com/Minority+Canadians+believe+Ignatieff+deliver...

Now there's a perfect example of push polling if I ever saw one. 

I also loved how Bricker misrepresents the results of the gun registry question.  He says it is a big problem for rural Libs and NDP members- well unless the poll was exclusively rural and anti-registry all the results tell us that for 40 some per cent the registry is a voting issue.  It most certainly does not tell us whether or not that is because they are for or against the registry.   A complete misrepresentation, but typical of the modern day snake oil that is polling.

Boom Boom Boom Boom's picture

thorin_bane wrote:

I am telling everyone I know to vote NDP because they are what the Liberals pretend to be. But that doesn't mean that I would cheer for the Libs to fall to 50 seats of it means the Bloc is at 47 and the NDP at 43. Because in the end it does us no good to have a more right wing gov with absolute rule.

That's how I feel except I tell everyone here to vote BQ instead of NDP (it seems unlikely to me that the BQ will lose this riding anytime soon).

A Harper majority is to be avoided at all costs in my opinion - even if means a lot of NDP seats go Liberal, or vice-versa; whatever works.

In fact right now I'd MUCH prefer to see an Ignatieff-led minority government, kept in check by the NDP and BQ.

 

Lens Solution

Life, the universe, everything wrote:

NorthReport wrote:

Another minute, another poll

 

Minority of Canadians believe Ignatieff can deliver on 'Family Pack' promises

 

http://www.vancouversun.com/Minority+Canadians+believe+Ignatieff+deliver...

Now there's a perfect example of push polling if I ever saw one. 

I also loved how Bricker misrepresents the results of the gun registry question.  He says it is a big problem for rural Libs and NDP members- well unless the poll was exclusively rural and anti-registry all the results tell us that for 40 some per cent the registry is a voting issue.  It most certainly does not tell us whether or not that is because they are for or against the registry.   A complete misrepresentation, but typical of the modern day snake oil that is polling.

Bricker is a disgrace.  He is always publishing pro-Conservative polls, and it's time the media called him out on it.

racial_realist

It's no longer a question of whether the neo-cons will win the election, rather whether or not it will be a majority. I'm predicting that we will either see the liberals undergo a massive collapse in the next few weeks and the neo-cons steamroll to a massive majority, or else things will stay more or less as they are now, and the neo-cons will wind up with a similar number of seats as they have now.

Boom Boom Boom Boom's picture

So, you're not really predicting anything. Laughing

Anonymouse

Nanos April 11th - NDP surging at expense of Tories Wink

Conservative 39.7% -1.5
Liberal 31.2% +0.8
NDP 16.8% +1.6
BQ 7.8% NC -
Green 4.0% -0.6

NorthReport

Nanos Research - April 12

Cons - 39.7%, Down 1.5%
Libs - 31.2%, Up 0.8%
NDP - 16.8%, Up 1.6%
Bloc - 07.8%, No change
Grn - 4.0%, Down 0.6%
Und - 17.5%, Down 0.6%

http://www.nanosrese...411-BallotE.pdf

knownothing knownothing's picture

This is getting closer to the real numbers but judging from other polls the NDP is going to crack 20%. The worst thing is this leadership index, what a crock!

Boom Boom Boom Boom's picture

knownothing wrote:

This is getting closer to the real numbers but judging from other polls the NDP is going to crack 20%. The worst thing is this leadership index, what a crock!

Why not post those "other polls"? Instead of seeing Nanos here all the time, I'd like to see what others have.

knownothing knownothing's picture
janfromthebruce

Approval and Momentum

There was little movement in these questions, with Conservative leader and Prime Minister Stephen Harper maintaining an approval rating of 26 per cent. NDP leader Jack Layton gained a point to tie Harper at 26 per cent, while Liberal Party and Official Opposition leader Michael Ignatieff dropped to 12 per cent.Layton keeps the best momentum score of the three leaders at -3, followed by Harper

with -18 and Ignatieff with -20.

 

http://www.angus-reid.com/polls/43747/conservatives-drop-back-lead-liber...

JeffWells

I think that Angus Reid link is to an old poll. The page says it was conducted in early January.

NorthReport

The most recent AR poll was in the field April 4 & 5, and the results were:

Cons - 38%

Libs - 27%

NDP - 21%

 

Krago

Here's the latest Harris Decima poll:

 

Canada (Apr 7-10):  PC - 40%, Lib - 28%, NDP - 15%, BQ - 8%, Green - 8%

Canada (Mar 31 - Apr 10):  PC - 38%, Lib - 28%, NDP - 16%, BQ - 9%, Green - 8%

 

Ontario (Apr 7-10):  PC - 38%, Lib - 37%, NDP - 15%, Green - 8%

Ontario (Mar 31 - Apr 10):  PC - 41%, Lib - 36%, NDP - 14%, Green - 8%

 

Quebec (Apr 7-10):  BQ - 34%, PC - 24%, Lib - 20%, NDP - 11%, Green - 7%

Quebec (Mar 31 - Apr 10):  BQ - 39%, PC - 21%, Lib - 20%, NDP - 13%, Green - 6%

 

Atlantic (Mar 31 - Apr 10):  Lib - 37%, PC - 36%, NDP - 21%, Green - 6%

 

Man/Sask (Mar 31 - Apr 10):  PC - 46%, NDP - 23%, Lib - 20%, Green - 10%

 

Alberta (Mar 31 - Apr 10):  PC - 62%, Lib - 18%, NDP - 11%, Green - 8%

 

BC (Mar 31 - Apr 10):  PC - 38%, Lib - 24%, NDP - 24%, Green - 12%

Boom Boom Boom Boom's picture

Nice to see something other than Nanos here. Thanks!

NorthReport

Layton pulls ahead and away from Ignatieff as Harper tumbles in Nanos Leadership Index

 

Harper - 94%, down 15.6%

Layton - 54.1%, Up 6.3%

Ignatieff - 48.4%, up 3.7%

 

 

 

 

http://www.nanosresearch.com/election2011/20110411-LeadershipE.pdf

NorthReport

Exclusive poll: Half of Canadians find Harper, Ignatieff 'unfavourable'

 

http://www.citytv.com/toronto/citynews/news/national/article/124463--exc...

Malcolm Malcolm's picture

I am curious about the disconnect between the Quebec polls by CROP and Leger, with >1,000 Quebec respondents which show the NDP surging and the national polls with <200 Quebec respondents showing the NDP only slightly above usual levels.

knownothing knownothing's picture

yes quite suspect

bekayne

Malcolm wrote:

I am curious about the disconnect between the Quebec polls by CROP and Leger, with >1,000 Quebec respondents which show the NDP surging and the national polls with <200 Quebec respondents showing the NDP only slightly above usual levels.

The polls which have the NDP highest in Quebec are national-Angus Reid & Forum Research. CROP & Leger are very similar to Ipsos, Nanos, Environics, Abacus & Ekos-around 18% to 21%. Harris-Decima is the outlier.

Ken Burch

NorthReport wrote:

Layton pulls ahead and away from Ignatieff as Harper tumbles in Nanos Leadership Index

 

Harper - 94%, down 15.6%

Layton - 54.1%, Up 6.3%

Ignatieff - 48.4%, up 3.7%

 

 

 

 

http://www.nanosresearch.com/election2011/20110411-LeadershipE.pdf

Harper at 94%, down 15.6%...doesn't that mean that at one point Harper would have been at 109.6% ?

Ken Burch

racial_realist wrote:

It's no longer a question of whether the neo-cons will win the election, rather whether or not it will be a majority. I'm predicting that we will either see the liberals undergo a massive collapse in the next few weeks and the neo-cons steamroll to a massive majority, or else things will stay more or less as they are now, and the neo-cons will wind up with a similar number of seats as they have now.

btw...any chance you're ever going to tell us what "racial realist" actually MEANS?  That term makes a lot of us queasy, to say the least.

Centrist

NorthReport wrote:
http://www.citytv.com/toronto/citynews/news/national/article/124463--exclusive-poll-half-of-canadians-find-harper-ignatieff-unfavourable

Innovative Research poll (Maclean's/City TV)

Con: 39%

Lib: 28%

NDP: 17%

Green: 7%

BQ: 9%

Sample Size: 2,059 

Sean in Ottawa

CTV reporting on their news ticker that the NDP is in freefall in ontario as people "flock" to Liberals.

Cool eh? Completely fact-free news.

NorthReport

Yes, yesterday. That's the Nanos system - how someone got over 100% is beyond me.

 

Ken Burch wrote:

NorthReport wrote:

Layton pulls ahead and away from Ignatieff as Harper tumbles in Nanos Leadership Index

 

Harper - 94%, down 15.6%

Layton - 54.1%, Up 6.3%

Ignatieff - 48.4%, up 3.7%

 

 

 

 

http://www.nanosresearch.com/election2011/20110411-LeadershipE.pdf

Harper at 94%, down 15.6%...doesn't that mean that at one point Harper would have been at 109.6% ?

Life, the unive...

It isn't a percent it is some totally made up index.   My respect for Nanos ans CTV/ Globe and Mail is dropping like a stone.

bekayne

NorthReport wrote:

Yes, yesterday. That's the Nanos system - how someone got over 100% is beyond me.

It's a combination of 3 numbers, meaning the highest you can score is 300. Harper dropped 7.6 on trust in one night, which in a 3 day rolling poll is pretty huge.

Malcolm Malcolm's picture

bekayne wrote:

The polls which have the NDP highest in Quebec are national-Angus Reid & Forum Research. CROP & Leger are very similar to Ipsos, Nanos, Environics, Abacus & Ekos-around 18% to 21%. Harris-Decima is the outlier.

 

Maybe I was thinking of some pre-election polls.  They're all starting to blend together.

nicky

Frank Graves (Ekos) on CBC Newsworld has just said :

1. Gap between Cons and Libs now only 5.5%

2.  Libs at 28.5

3.  NDP at 18.5

4. Both NDP and Libs gaining at expense of Cons and for first time in campaign would have more seats combined than the Cons.

NorthReport

Yes, it may be a setup and it is overpowering because they are the only ones coming out with daily public polls.

Stockholm

Frank Graves just said on CBC that his latest numbers from the last two night shows the Tories only leading by 5% and both the Liberals AND the NDP gaining with the NDP up to 18.5% (which is high for Ekos).

NorthReport

Yes, it may be a setup and it is overpowering because they are the only ones coming out with daily public polls. As Stockholm pointed out Nanos' predecessor SES did the same thing in Dec, 2005.

gyor

Now that Harper is weakened it is time to focus some of those ndp guns on the Liberals, carefully and well aimed of course. Same with Gilles. I am n

bekayne

Harper expected to win debates:

http://www.google.com/hostednews/canadianpress/article/ALeqM5jnC-BrAZJFsMdeh2MO6oENd6LEIQ?docId=6543227

A survey by The Canadian Press Harris-Decima found 37 per cent of respondents think the prime minister will have the strongest debate performance.

Respondents are less keen about the Liberal, NDP and Bloc Quebecois leaders, with 19 per cent saying Michael Ignatieff will have the strongest showing, 15 per cent choosing Jack Layton and five per cent going for Gilles Duceppe.

gyor

Now that Harper is weakened it is time to focus some of those ndp guns on the Liberals, carefully and well aimed of course. Same with Gilles. I am not saying to stop Harper, but now that he is bleeding it is important not to forgot he have other enemies to be beaten as well. 27 is way to high for the liberals they don't deserve it and if Gilles wants a fight with Jack lets give it to him, in a way that doesn't alienate potiential switch voters. I don't know what is going to happen here, this debate will be the hardest to guess.

Btw the debate is at 7:00pm in Ontario right?

Lens Solution

bekayne wrote:

NorthReport wrote:

Yes, yesterday. That's the Nanos system - how someone got over 100% is beyond me.

It's a combination of 3 numbers, meaning the highest you can score is 300. Harper dropped 7.6 on trust in one night, which in a 3 day rolling poll is pretty huge.

Hopefully the Harper drop in trust last night was because of the Auditor General's G8/G20 report.

I just hope that Harper's "good" debate performance doesn't start moving him back up in trust again.

Paulitical Junkie

Is this for real?

"Stephen Harper's Conservatives have gained a massive 21-point lead over Michael Ignatieff's Liberals, according to a new COMPAS Research poll obtained exclusively by QMI Agency."

It says the poll was taken April 6-11.

Who is COMPAS Research?

http://www.torontosun.com/news/decision2011/2011/04/12/17970681.html

Stockholm

Compas is a very rightwing company which used to do a lot of very biased polling for the National Post - so caveat emptor. Its kind of odd to have such a partial release where they tell you the Tories are 21 points ahead, but they don't tell you what percentage of the vote anyone has.

bekayne

Paulitical Junkie wrote:

Is this for real?

"Stephen Harper's Conservatives have gained a massive 21-point lead over Michael Ignatieff's Liberals, according to a new COMPAS Research poll obtained exclusively by QMI Agency."

It says the poll was taken April 6-11.

Who is COMPAS Research?

http://www.torontosun.com/news/decision2011/2011/04/12/17970681.html

They used to be the pollster for the National Post. They haven't been doing these types of polls for about a decade. The ones they've been doing the last few years have been mainly of CEOs for the Financial Post.

RevolutionPlease RevolutionPlease's picture

harpers done better choose your 2nd place party

 

lolz

JeffWells

Stockholm wrote:

Its kind of odd to have such a partial release where they tell you the Tories are 21 points ahead, but they don't tell you what percentage of the vote anyone has.

It is bizarre. Perhaps the numbers are so unlikely they're embarrassed to run them. Or perhaps there's a statistical Liberal/NDP tie that they don't want to acknowledge. They are talking of NDP strengths, so the poll wouldn't indicate a collapse.

bekayne

COMPAS also likes to ask some idiotic questions:

http://www.torontosun.com/news/decision2011/2011/04/12/17970801.html

Lens Solution

bekayne wrote:

COMPAS also likes to ask some idiotic questions:

http://www.torontosun.com/news/decision2011/2011/04/12/17970801.html

No kidding!

Who would make the best battlefield commander?!

NorthReport

Layton vastly exceeded expectations during the debate
[quote]Four in 10 debate viewers think Harper won:

 

A flash poll conducted immediately following Tuesday night's English-language debate found that four in 10 debate viewers thought Conservative leader Stephen Harper won the event, significantly higher than his nearest rival, NDP leader Jack Layton.

 

The poll, conducted by Ipsos Reid for Global National in the half-hour immediately following the debate, found that 42 per cent of viewers thought Harper won, followed by 25 per cent who thought Layton won. Liberal leader Michael Ignatieff was victorious in the eyes of 23 per cent of viewers, while only two per cent of viewers thought Bloc leader Gilles Duceppe won.

 

Layton appeared to make the biggest gains in the debate, exceeding the expectations of many Canadians. Prior to the debate, only 12 per cent of people thought he would win. A majority of viewers, 55 per cent, said their impressions of him improved, while only 14 per cent said their impressions worsened.

 

http://www.canada.com/Four+debate+viewers+think+Harper+poll/4605023/story.html[/quote]

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