Green Party coup

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Left Turn Left Turn's picture

Pondering wrote:
 I heard on the news last night that the NDP is down to 13% with support going to the Liberals. NDP strategy isn't working.

jerrym wrote:
In other words, both parties bounced up and down in the polls within certain margins with the NDP in October up 1.0%and the Greens down 0.5%  in their October average compared to their results in the 2019 election. For comparisons sake the Liberals average for October is 36.6%, up 3.5% in October compared to the 2019 election, while the Conservatives averaged 31.3%  in October, down 3.0%  compared to the 2019 election. So most the voter movement has occurred between the Liberals and Conservatives, with the NDP up slightly and the Greens down slightly on average. The margins for a Liberal majority are paper thin and within the margin of error if an election is called in the immediate future. While an election campaign could dramatically increase or decrease any party's vote share depending on what happened, there is no guarantee that would benefit or harm any particular party or leave the end results pretty much as they are right now, as campaigns each have their own rhythm.

Looks to me as though voters are flocking to incumbent parties across the board in Canada, because pandemic.

jerrym

Left Turn wrote:

Looks to me as though voters are flocking to incumbent parties across the board in Canada, because pandemic.

The election campaigns tell a somewhat more complicated story. In the New Brunswick election, the Conservatives had a 16% lead over the Liberals early the election campaign on August 30th but ended up winning by 5% over the Liberals with a ho-hum campaign while the Greens were able to keep their three seats. In BC, the Conservatives self-destructed during the campaign and suffered historic losses in their modern iteration, while the NDP performed well in the campaign, increasing their vote share during the campaign, won more seats than they ever have and are expected to win more after all votes are counted, while the Greens were able to maintain their three seats because of a good campaign, despite many expecting them to be wiped out by the NDP. The Saskatchewan Party ran a smooth campaign while there was some internal fighting campaign in the NDP during the campaign, resulting in a large SP victory when this was combined with the perception that they handled Covid well. In other words, if one is perceived to have done a good job on the pandemic, there is a definite advantage in being the government, but the election campaign still will have  a major impact on what happens. Furthermore, a party can maintain or even improve its vote share without being in power as the NDP has done with an average of a 1.0% small increase federally over ten polls during October from the 2019 election results, if it actions are viewed favorably by voters. 

Also the Ontario and Quebec polls tell a somewhat different story. In Quebec, at the height of their pandemic crisis the CAQ fell in May and June from 52% in March to 38% on June 1st and as things improved in the summer they reached 57% on August 28th, the last poll listed on Wikipedia. Now the question is the CAQ going to or is already suffering with the high infection rates now. 

A similar story can be seen in Ontario, with the PCs dropping from 43% to 31% during the early crisis then climbing back to 48% by September 3rd. However, unlike Quebec, we now have an October poll showing them at 36% on October 12th. So there can be rapid increases and drops in popularity depending on how voters perceive one's performance on the pandemic. 

Now that we are in a second wave, incumbency could cause other provinces to rise and fall depending on how they are perceived. Manitoba, for example, has just become the province with the highest per capita number of  active Covid cases, so its government may find itself in popularity problems if this is not quickly corrected. This could also happen to the federal Liberals if things go badly in many places during the second wave and the Liberal response to the second wave is seen as problematic. 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/43rd_Ontario_general_election

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/43rd_Quebec_general_election

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_New_Brunswick_general_election

Pondering

Here's hoping the Liberals bleed support to the NDP and the Paul-Greens crash and burn. 

jerrym

ETA: Perhaps out of tiredness I did not look at what is happening in the Manitoba and Alberta polls after taking the time to analyze the polls and election campaigns in several provinces shown above in post #253. 

Generally, the Manitoba government has been perceived to be doing well in handling the pandemic because its total number of Covid-19 cases has been small. However in the last week, not only has the number of Covid-19 cases spiked in Manitoba, the situation is now being perceived differently because people now realize that this spike has given the province the highest Covid case load per capita in the country. Up to now, the PC government, although down slightly from its 47.1% in the September 2019 election, has done relatively well in the polls, staying between 42% and 45% since the September 2019 election, with one outlier poll of 38% in the middle of the six polls time wise. The question now is how will becoming the reigning Covid case per capita leader affect the PC's and other parties poll numbers if this case situation is not correctly corrected. (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/43rd_Manitoba_general_election)

Alberta's situation is even more complicated because the province has another crisis ocurring simultaneously - the collapse of oil prices and the Alberta economy that actually began well before Covid hit. The UCP had already fallen from its April 2019 54.9% election to 42% by November 2019 and was tied with the NDP at 38% by  the September 1st 2020 poll, which is the latest poll on Wiki. The recent rapid rise is Covid cases could well help push them below the NDP in the next poll. (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/31st_Alberta_general_election) What The other provinces seem to be telling us is that what happens with Covid is the most powerful determinant factor in a party's fortune, but if there is another dominant issue also playing into the picture, such as in Alberta, the electoral story could have both factors playing a major affect in party popularity. 

Other than discussing the New Brunswick election in post #253, I left the Maritimes and territories out of the analysis because their low total Covid case numbers have helped all of them remain pretty popular. 

Pondering

I would love to see a return of the NDP in Alberta.

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