Green Party coup

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Pondering wrote:
 I heard on the news last night that the NDP is down to 13% with support going to the Liberals. NDP strategy isn't working.

jerrym wrote:
In other words, both parties bounced up and down in the polls within certain margins with the NDP in October up 1.0%and the Greens down 0.5%  in their October average compared to their results in the 2019 election. For comparisons sake the Liberals average for October is 36.6%, up 3.5% in October compared to the 2019 election, while the Conservatives averaged 31.3%  in October, down 3.0%  compared to the 2019 election. So most the voter movement has occurred between the Liberals and Conservatives, with the NDP up slightly and the Greens down slightly on average. The margins for a Liberal majority are paper thin and within the margin of error if an election is called in the immediate future. While an election campaign could dramatically increase or decrease any party's vote share depending on what happened, there is no guarantee that would benefit or harm any particular party or leave the end results pretty much as they are right now, as campaigns each have their own rhythm.

Looks to me as though voters are flocking to incumbent parties across the board in Canada, because pandemic.

jerrym

Left Turn wrote:

Looks to me as though voters are flocking to incumbent parties across the board in Canada, because pandemic.

The election campaigns tell a somewhat more complicated story. In the New Brunswick election, the Conservatives had a 16% lead over the Liberals early the election campaign on August 30th but ended up winning by 5% over the Liberals with a ho-hum campaign while the Greens were able to keep their three seats. In BC, the Conservatives self-destructed during the campaign and suffered historic losses in their modern iteration, while the NDP performed well in the campaign, increasing their vote share during the campaign, won more seats than they ever have and are expected to win more after all votes are counted, while the Greens were able to maintain their three seats because of a good campaign, despite many expecting them to be wiped out by the NDP. The Saskatchewan Party ran a smooth campaign while there was some internal fighting campaign in the NDP during the campaign, resulting in a large SP victory when this was combined with the perception that they handled Covid well. In other words, if one is perceived to have done a good job on the pandemic, there is a definite advantage in being the government, but the election campaign still will have  a major impact on what happens. Furthermore, a party can maintain or even improve its vote share without being in power as the NDP has done with an average of a 1.0% small increase federally over ten polls during October from the 2019 election results, if it actions are viewed favorably by voters. 

Also the Ontario and Quebec polls tell a somewhat different story. In Quebec, at the height of their pandemic crisis the CAQ fell in May and June from 52% in March to 38% on June 1st and as things improved in the summer they reached 57% on August 28th, the last poll listed on Wikipedia. Now the question is the CAQ going to or is already suffering with the high infection rates now. 

A similar story can be seen in Ontario, with the PCs dropping from 43% to 31% during the early crisis then climbing back to 48% by September 3rd. However, unlike Quebec, we now have an October poll showing them at 36% on October 12th. So there can be rapid increases and drops in popularity depending on how voters perceive one's performance on the pandemic. 

Now that we are in a second wave, incumbency could cause other provinces to rise and fall depending on how they are perceived. Manitoba, for example, has just become the province with the highest per capita number of  active Covid cases, so its government may find itself in popularity problems if this is not quickly corrected. This could also happen to the federal Liberals if things go badly in many places during the second wave and the Liberal response to the second wave is seen as problematic. 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/43rd_Ontario_general_election

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/43rd_Quebec_general_election

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_New_Brunswick_general_election

Pondering

Here's hoping the Liberals bleed support to the NDP and the Paul-Greens crash and burn. 

jerrym

ETA: Perhaps out of tiredness I did not look at what is happening in the Manitoba and Alberta polls after taking the time to analyze the polls and election campaigns in several provinces shown above in post #253. 

Generally, the Manitoba government has been perceived to be doing well in handling the pandemic because its total number of Covid-19 cases has been small. However in the last week, not only has the number of Covid-19 cases spiked in Manitoba, the situation is now being perceived differently because people now realize that this spike has given the province the highest Covid case load per capita in the country. Up to now, the PC government, although down slightly from its 47.1% in the September 2019 election, has done relatively well in the polls, staying between 42% and 45% since the September 2019 election, with one outlier poll of 38% in the middle of the six polls time wise. The question now is how will becoming the reigning Covid case per capita leader affect the PC's and other parties poll numbers if this case situation is not correctly corrected. (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/43rd_Manitoba_general_election)

Alberta's situation is even more complicated because the province has another crisis ocurring simultaneously - the collapse of oil prices and the Alberta economy that actually began well before Covid hit. The UCP had already fallen from its April 2019 54.9% election to 42% by November 2019 and was tied with the NDP at 38% by  the September 1st 2020 poll, which is the latest poll on Wiki. The recent rapid rise is Covid cases could well help push them below the NDP in the next poll. (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/31st_Alberta_general_election) What The other provinces seem to be telling us is that what happens with Covid is the most powerful determinant factor in a party's fortune, but if there is another dominant issue also playing into the picture, such as in Alberta, the electoral story could have both factors playing a major affect in party popularity. 

Other than discussing the New Brunswick election in post #253, I left the Maritimes and territories out of the analysis because their low total Covid case numbers have helped all of them remain pretty popular. 

Pondering

I would love to see a return of the NDP in Alberta.

Pondering

Pondering wrote:

Here's hoping the Liberals bleed support to the NDP and the Paul-Greens crash and burn. 

And so it continues. 

https://ipolitics.ca/2021/06/10/mp-atwins-departure-the-culmination-of-m...

Both Zatzman and Paul are Jewish. Paul did not condemn Zatzman for his Facebook post, despite calls from many within the Green Party to speak out against him and support Manly and Atwin.

Dimitry Lascaris, who ran against Paul for leadership of the Greens last year, told iPolitics on Thursday that something has changed within the party over the past few months.

“(There is) no question that the party is going through an extraordinarily difficult time… and it is imperative for the leader to get ahead of this… and support her MPs,” Lascaris said.

The opportunity to take over an established political party by progressives is a once in a generation opportunity. 

I absolutely do not support the Green Party in its current form. I joined the Green Party so I will have an opportunity to participate in the coup against the right wing. My conscience is not at all troubled by voting NDP in my riding while being a member of the Greens. It is a hostile takeover. 

If a few thousand socialists join the Green Party to support Lascaris he will win and he will be a voice on the national stage. If this dosesn't happen there are too few socialists in Canada or we are all hopelessly inept including myself. 

He lost by 2,009 votes. Can we not drum up 5K or even 10K socialists to put him way over the top? 

2.1.4.5

Within six months of a Federal General Election, unless the leader becomes prime minister, a Leadership Review, where all Members in good standing may vote, shall be held. The date of the Leadership Review vote will be set by Federal Council and may coincide with a General Meeting. The Leader's term shall end if Members in good standing do not pass a resolution endorsing the Leader by at least 60%.

https://www.greenparty.ca/en/party/documents/constitution

There will likely be a federal election within the year. Six months after that there will be a leadership review. 

So, we have 1 to 1 1/2 years to help put lascaris over the top. I can't do a lot but I will ask my daughter to research him because she will support him if she does and she has a lot of progressive friends.  I will support the Rational Nation/David Doel because he supports Lascaris. No one even has to join the party now. Just before the next leadership vote. 

I will be so disheartened if we can't find a few thousand activists to act on this golden opportunity to transform the Greens into an eco-socialist party. What are the chances that an eco-socialist party will rise from the ground up or that the NDP will be transformed into one?

 

melovesproles

Pondering wrote:

There will likely be a federal election within the year. Six months after that there will be a leadership review. 

So, we have 1 to 1 1/2 years to help put lascaris over the top.

I think he needs to run in the election. He doesn't need to win but he needs to find a riding that he can represent and build a base. Most people I know are so soured with the Federal Green brand that it was a hard sell getting anyone to join the party to vote for Lascaris. I've had more luck signing up people for less impressive candidates in other leadership contests in the past. If he can outperform Paul in an election, then it would go a long way to making his case. I know I'd donate to him if he made a run regardless of what riding he chose. I think it will be much harder to get people excited about his leadership chances if he still hasn't started doing the work he would need to do if he wants to be an MP let alone a party leader.

kropotkin1951

There are no safe seats anywhere in Canada for an eco-socialist to run in. I agree that if he wants to be an MP he will have to build his own team in the right riding and run to win but hope for at least a solid second place finish. When I worked on Svend's campaigns our ace in the hole was that after his leadership run we got enough national donations to spend the campaign limit without having the central campaign involved. Plus we got volunteers from all over the Lower Mainland to knock on doors and staff the phone banks.

Mighty Middle

From Tyee

Sources close to the situation told The Tyee that rookie leader Paul has rejected any analysis that concludes that she was responsible for Atwin’s decision to join the Liberals. Those sources say that Paul was convinced that Atwin was a threat to her leadership, and as the former parliamentary seatmate of former Liberal cabinet minister Jody Wilson-Raybould, had been whispering to the Grits for a long time about joining them.

Sources within the Green Party told The Tyee that the grassroots of the party, especially younger voters, saw Atwin as the natural future leader of the party. As the sense grew that installing Paul as Leader was a major mistake, Atwin was seen as the right choice as interim party leader

https://thetyee.ca/News/2021/06/14/Green-Implosion-Remaining-MPs-Ask-Jen...

Pondering

Fantastic good news MM, thanks!

If the controversy over Paul continues to spiral downwards in the defection of Atwin, the party’s constitution allows for a review of her leadership, provided three-quarters of the National Council of the Green Party support that measure.  [Tyee]

I noticed no mention of Lascaris who was only 2K votes short of winning against Paul. While of course I wish for peace in Palestine the issue seems to be a catalyst for defeating the right wing of the party. The grassroots/members of the party seem to be decidedly leftist. Paul ran her campaign from the left refusing to comment on international affairs and going heavy on the black, female and jewish angle. She seems to think it is reason enough to elect her. Lascaris is a socialist so both lead candidates ran campaigns from the left. 

The executive of the Green Party may still be farther right but it seems they realized that the party members are on the left hence their attempt to put Paul forward. 

nicky

Whoever takes over the Greens the party will continue to attempt to undermine the NDP with the effect, as has been demonstrated election after election, of throwing several seats unnecessarily to the Cons and Libs.

The best result for progressive politics in Canada is for the Greens simply to dry up and blow away.

Debater

nicky wrote:

Whoever takes over the Greens the party will continue to attempt to undermine the NDP with the effect, as has been demonstrated election after election, of throwing several seats unnecessarily to the Cons and Libs.

The best result for progressive politics in Canada is for the Greens simply to dry up and blow away.

The Greens take support from the NDP, yes, but they also take some from the Liberals -- Fredericton was a notable example of that in 2019.

nicky

Fredericton was hardly an NDP prospect.

Paul has been quite explicit in wanting to go after NDP seats and voters, scarcely mentioning the Liberals.

May has always leveled far more criticism at the NDP than at the other parties.

nicky
josh

She was required to repudiate Zatzman, and hasn't done it yet.

Pondering

nicky wrote:

Fredericton was hardly an NDP prospect.

Paul has been quite explicit in wanting to go after NDP seats and voters, scarcely mentioning the Liberals.

May has always leveled far more criticism at the NDP than at the other parties.

So what? No one here supports Paul. The Greens are in a civil war and the left is gaining ground. We need a socialist party. Our best chance is to take over the Greens because the NDP is about as leftist as the 1970s Liberals and every bit as set in their ways. So now they are barely left of the Liberals and the Liberals even managed to outflank the NDP on the left.  The establishment has its hooks in all 4 parties, Conservatives, Liberals, NDP and Greens. The left has a much better chance of taking over the Greens than they do the NDP.

Pondering

josh wrote:

She was required to repudiate Zatzman, and hasn't done it yet.

From the article...

The motion also calls for Paul to "explicitly support" the Green Party caucus. If not, the motion says, Paul would face a vote of non-confidence on July 20.

With an official date in place for the vote of non-confidence she will probably give in but it isn't certain as she has resisted the pressure so far. This is a really drastic step to force her hand. I think the only reason she is surviving is that there is so little time to establish a new leader before the next election. 

Debater

nicky wrote:

Fredericton was hardly an NDP prospect.

Paul has been quite explicit in wanting to go after NDP seats and voters, scarcely mentioning the Liberals.

May has always leveled far more criticism at the NDP than at the other parties.

The Greens target the NDP, yes, but they also target the Liberals.

Fredericton was an example of a Liberal-held seat that was taken away by the Greens.  In fact, there was a noticeable increase in Green support at the expense of the Liberals in many Atlantic ridings in 2019, partially as a result of the provincial Green momentum, and partially as a result of the Green federal campaign.   All 4 Liberal-held seats on PEI saw a loss of vote share to the Greens.  It could also be observed in ridings like Beausejour where Dominic Leblanc lost a good chunk of his vote share to the Greens.

And in Vancouver-Granville, May publically admitted that she wanted the Greens to try and help Jody Wilson-Raybould win her seat against the Liberal candidate.

In Ontario the provincial Greens took away the Liberal-held riding of Guelph, and have also targeted the riding at the Federal level.

You are correct that there is a lot of bad blood between the Greens and the NDP and that the Greens worked hard to target NDP ridings on Vancouver Island in 2019.

But yesterday in her news conference, Anamie Paul attacked Justin Trudeau and blamed him for the division in the Green Party.  So the fact remains that the Greens are no friend to the Liberals, either.

Pondering

The NDP are often accused of targeting the Liberals and not the Conservatives during election campaigns. Just as the Conservatives want a strong NDP to weaken the Liberals, the NDP doesn't want a strong Conservative because they could actually win but they don't want them to weaken too much because it benefits the Liberals.

Conservatives, Liberals, NDP and Greens are all centrist at best unless the Green Party leadership is overthrown. 

Ken Burch

nicky wrote:

Fredericton was hardly an NDP prospect.

Paul has been quite explicit in wanting to go after NDP seats and voters, scarcely mentioning the Liberals.

May has always leveled far more criticism at the NDP than at the other parties.

The share the presumption that the Greens are simply entitled to the votes of all progressives, whether their policies are actually progressive or not.

One thing is now clear...the NDP needs to reach out to Manly, now- they need to apologize for ever blocking him from winning the nomination in Nanaimo-Ladysmith and agree to allow him onto the shortlist there this time- it's been clear the whole time that no good ever came to the NDP from blocking him and that the party can only gain from letting him back in if he wants back in AND from accepting his views on the Israel/Palestine issue as legitimate.  

robbie_dee

Ken Burch wrote:

One thing is now clear...the NDP needs to reach out to Manly, now- they need to apologize for ever blocking him from winning the nomination in Nanaimo-Ladysmith and agree to allow him onto the shortlist there this time- it's been clear the whole time that no good ever came to the NDP from blocking him and that the party can only gain from letting him back in if he wants back in AND from accepting his views on the Israel/Palestine issue as legitimate.  

The NDP has already nominated a candidate in Nanaimo Ladysmith for the next federal election: Lisa Marie Barron

Pondering

The NDP is far far far, and I mean far, better than the Liberals, but they still aren't anywhere close to ecosocialist. They are still basically accepting of the neoliberal framework of free trade deals. They want to nibble around the edges. In all fairness that is probably as radical as Canadians are willing to go at the present so electorally it makes sense to temper policy to what Canadians might be pursuaded to support. 

Having said that the ongoing climate catastrophe is growing every year and can be laid squarely at the feet of government and industry. The time is ripe for the rise of a party that will be able to say "I told you so and now I am telling you this". 

Canada can remain spoiled and comfortable if we dramatically cut our military budget and transform our interpretation of what it means for a country to be secure. I think we are the wealthiest country on earth in natural resources and educated healthy peaceful population potential. We have everything we need to be wildly successful. 

I am a Lascaris ecosocialist. If he takes over the Green Party Leadership all hell with break loose in the media and it will likely harm as much as or more than help the Green Party vote at first. 

But imagine having an actual Green ecosocialist party in Canada with a national presence. Would that not inspire you to greater action? It is within reach. Lascaris lost by only 2000 votes.  There is sure to be another election this year. 

I am going to do my best to promote membership in the Green Party to be certain people will be able to vote for Lascaris in the next leadership election. 

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