Latest polling thread - started April 10, 2012

118 posts / 0 new
Last post
Arthur Cramer Arthur Cramer's picture

Are there regionals?

Very Far Away

Stockholm wrote:

FYI, This latest set of polls showing the NDP tied with the Tories were all in field BEFORE anyone would have seen the new NDP ads introducing Mulcair...things could get better yet!

 

They should. If they don`t, we have a problem. 

Cons have 34% of the votes even with Robocall and F-35 scandals.

I will feel good if NDP is 5% ahead of Cons in different polls.

JeffWells

Very Far Away wrote:

They should. If they don`t, we have a problem. 

Cons have 34% of the votes even with Robocall and F-35 scandals.

I will feel good if NDP is 5% ahead of Cons in different polls.

Yes. I'm still looking for the unambigious lead. I was hoping we'd be there this week. So this poll would have been more encouraging to me if it had been released last week. (Come on, next week!)

madmax

The Conservatives are developing a telfon skin.
This skin has to be peeled off or they may continue endure many scandals and levels of incompetence and still maintain a strong lead.

It worked for Mulroney. It worked for Bush.

adma

Very Far Away wrote:
 

Cons have 34% of the votes even with Robocall and F-35 scandals.

And if we want to grasp the "even with", we have to keep this in mind: in effect, the Conservatives now are perceived by many as the only "governable" party vs the decimated Liberals and the untested NDP, much as the Chretien-era Liberals once were vs the decimated PCs (and NDP) and the untested Reform/Alliance.  Against that tableau, 34% is pretty ominously mediocre...

JeffWells

The Post isn't spinning this, so much as papering over with lies.

Headline: [url=http://news.nationalpost.com/2012/04/12/conservative-popularity-sinks-bu... popularity sinks but Stephen Harper approval holds steady: poll[/url]

The data on Harper's approval is buried in paragraph 12:

Quote:
Meanwhile, 42% of Canadians polled approve of the job Harper is doing as prime minister. While that represents a drop of six points from March, Wright said the number is still extremely high.

"Holds steady"? "Extremely high"?

 

Ippurigakko

My opinion polls on apps (Iphone, Ipad1/2, Ipod):

Morning 

LIB 43%
NDP 29%
CON 14%
BQ   14%
GRN 0%

Tonight

NDP 40%
LIB 33%
CON 13%
GRN 7%
BQ 7%

 

Policywonk

madmax wrote:
The Conservatives are developing a telfon skin. This skin has to be peeled off or they may continue endure many scandals and levels of incompetence and still maintain a strong lead. It worked for Mulroney. It worked for Bush.

It didn't work forever for Mulroney. By the end of his second term he was trailing badly in the polls and felt compelled to resign.

janfromthebruce

Ippurigakko wrote:

Ipsos Reid - April 12, 2012

 

CON 34% (-3 from 37)
NDP 33% (+4 from 29)
LIB 21% (-2 from 23)
BQ 7% (same)
GRN 4% (same)

 

http://www.canada.com/news/Conservative+popularity+falling+wake+recent+c...

I never saw Ipsos Reid as a pollster who ever gave much favourable polling to the NDP, so I'm surprised really. Don't you think it's interesting that that even pollsters who often give negative numbers are showing the NDP tied for 1st place?

Sean in Ottawa

One way of looking at this is to question what is the core support the Cons can count on no matter what and what is the undecided being redistributed.

Then look at what they have above that compared to what they used to have above that.

My guess is bedrock support for the Cons is about 25%. They are not far above that now.

Other parties may also be close to their bedrock.

It could be tough changing these numbers by much.

 

 

Howard

For the sake of argument, let's say CPC core support is 25 and Lib is 15. That still gives the NDP growth potential up to 48%. And then the Bloc might fold. NDP at 55%?

Cool

Sean in Ottawa

Let's say NDP Core is about 15; Liberal is about 15; Con is about 25; Green is about 1; BQ is about 4% nationally

That means there are about 60% that we know what they are going to do.

That leaves 40% that can float between the parties but even massive success won't see any party get that. As well each party likely has a ceiling.

I would say the Liberals and the NDP have lower floors than the Cons but a higher ceiling-- fewer people who would never vote for the NDP or Liberals even-- for now.

I suspect the Cons ceiling is at 45% and the NDP perhaps now as high as 55% and the Liberals about 50% The Greens likely also to have a high ceiling since while few pay them attention if they had a great leader and policies few would be hostile to them-- they have little karma good or bad. I'd say the Greens have a ceiling perhaps as high as 40% and the BQ 14%

Given current politics-- it is unlikely that the Greens, BQ or Liberals will see anything remotely close to their ceiling but the NDP could certainly approach it and I would not be shocked to see the NDP at some point get within ten percent -- in other words the NDP could shoot as high as 45% under ideal conditions under the current political environment.

As well, I think under these conditions three parties could actually find themselves burning their core support actually going lower than what would now be their current floor: the Cons, the Liberals and the BQ. The only difference is that for the Cons to go close or even below what I would currently call their floor a new right wing party would have to emerge. The NDP on the other hand could consolidate a floor support that could grow as high as 25% over the next several years, especially if the other parties' floors drop.

That right wing party could be a new Wild-Rose like -- very right wing party coming up over anger at some of the wasteful spending or lack of enough progress on a right wing agenda. That party could get some 20% nationally and over time take a portion of the current floor of the Cons. This would not surprise after the right has governed for a while to see a split. Alternately a right wing party slightly to the left of the hawkish and scandal-prone Cons could emerge. That could be the Liberals under a John-Manley-like leader.

Before you dismiss the Liberals consider the landscape: they are at sea but not because they are so hated (by the general population not the NDP which does tend to hate them), their problem is poor leadership and irrelevance as well as a strong NDP. Rather than reclaim the centre, they could follow the BC Liberal's lead and move to the right and pick up the old Progressive Conservative territory that the Cons could give up as they are seen as more of a right-wing, scandal prone party. The Cons could end up being the ones to shrink to a rump in the next election and the Liberals-- if they installed a right-of-centre leader-- one perhaps from Western Canada -- could retake the right section.

Before you dismiss this entirely, consider that stranger things have happened; the distance for the Liberals is not really that great and it is the Cons who are in control of a shop-worn perhaps government. It also could not only be their best play, it could be their only play. Remember Jim Prentice? He could be the guy to do that. He was a person who came from the PC ranks and did not fit into the Conservative party but could easily rebrand the Liberals as a right party that does not have the extremism of the Conservatives. You would then see a real battle between those Liberals and the NDP for the next government with the Harper Cons trying to hold on to a balance of power.

The reason I lay this out is to underline that the whole landscape could change radically overnight. Also nobody should write off any major party right now-- or consider them to be without risk.

The NDP on its side is likely united at least until it becomes government. But if it governs too far from its roots a party to the left of it could emerge with little notice...

Once you see the type of change that has happened to the Liberal party, you have to recognize that this makes major changes to other parties more likely, especially as the right is a recent incarnation of its own.

Some things to consider-- pile on!

Howard

I was being facetious, but carry on Smile

Very Far Away

Your last post is excellent, Sean in Ottawa. It made me think about so many different possibilities that may happen in the next 3 years. 

Very Far Away

Also, results of provincial elections (Quebec and BC in 2013, Ontario (?)) will have huge effects on national polls and federal election in 2015.

JeffWells

Sean in Ottawa wrote:

The NDP on its side is likely united at least until it becomes government. But if it governs too far from its roots a party to the left of it could emerge with little notice...

To his credit Mulcair has largely shown promising sensitivity to the risk of fracture. Whether that's down to tactical protection of his left flank or conviction, we don't know yet, and we may not know until we form government.

One added thought that may be pegged as Conservative "black ops." I think part of the Conservative playbook against the NDP will be a whisper campaign that the party has abandoned its principles. Of course members will be voicing authentic concerns that we remain true to our core values, but we should also expect a proliferation of "concern trolls" whose purpose will be to suppress our vote.

Howard

For a new right-wing party to form, there would have to be much greater disillusionment (on the right) with the Conservative party than there is now. Also, Wild Rose is not so much a right-wing party as a reactionary party. A reactionary party on the right. Kind of like Reform before. Kind of like the NDP when it has filled a reactionary role on the left. Danielle Smith is in favour of gay marriage, abortion, and Ron Paul's favourite toothpaste. This does not mean her voters follow suit. In fact, they don't. It's a "we're fed up with the Alberta PCs" kind of moment.

Ippurigakko

Ok sad day

My research iOS tablet computer polls

CON 33%
NDP 26%
LIB 24%
GRN 12%
BQ 5%

Best PM
Harper 45%
Mulcair 40%
May 10%
Rae 5%

Centre 76%
Left and Right tied 12%

42% ongoing and 58% remaining

Dont worry wait till 58% closing.

babbler 8

What is this iOS computer tablet poll?

Ippurigakko

Iphone, Ipad 1,2,3 and Ipod apps called "World's Opinion" you have download it and click it every question and submit there graph stuff.

Sean in Ottawa

Opt-in surveys are bunk

Other surveys are close to bunk but opt ins are real bunk.

Relax.

Arthur Cramer Arthur Cramer's picture

I agree with Sean, I thought it was not worth taking seriously. You never have any idea how people find out about one of them. It has no control elements. Don't give it any thought.

Aristotleded24

babbler 8 wrote:
If you want real internet based polling, check out what Angus Reid has done. They were the first polling firm to detect the NDP surge a year ago and seem to produce very consistant polls.

[url=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QMF4tj6gBMs]They were also first to catch the last nationwide NDP surge in support[/url]

Ippurigakko

Thanks for the video.

I've been heard many people says that NDP was first place in 25 years ago.
Finally I saw this vid said

1987
NDP 37%
LIB 36%
PC 25%

 

the year that I was born. ;)

babbler 8

Yeah, I can't see how an opt-in survey could tell you political opinion. Also, by limiting yourself to premium apple products I think you skew things even more.

If you want real internet based polling, check out what Angus Reid has done. They were the first polling firm to detect the NDP surge a year ago and seem to produce very consistant polls.

NorthReport

 

;;

Sean in Ottawa

They topped out over 40% if I remember correctly. The party started to fall as discussion moved to the free trade election and the Liberals responded well to Free trade. The Cons also gained back their support to win the second majority a year later.

Very Far Away

Sean in Ottawa, it seems that Chantal Hebert read your post yesterday:) This is what she says today:

http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/politics/article/1161314--hebert-why-...

Policywonk

Sean in Ottawa wrote:

They topped out over 40% if I remember correctly. The party started to fall as discussion moved to the free trade election and the Liberals responded well to Free trade. The Cons also gained back their support to win the second majority a year later.

The over 40% (or the last 40%) was some time after the Free Trade election.

Winston

The over 40% happened in January 1991 when McLaughlin was leader (it was 41% to be specific), and we were looking at having three provincial govts in the near future.  Maclean's Magazine had the NDP on the cover: "NDP on a Roll", if you can find it.  

 

 

Sean in Ottawa

A little action on the right of Harper would put him in an impossible position-- indulge it and he surrenders the centre-right to a new party-- possibly a reborn Liberal party to the right of the old one-- fail to indulge it and you fuel a federal wild-rose like movement. If there is any sense that Harper is not a guaranteed win (poll slippage continuing) then his fragile coalition of social conservatives, strong fiscal conservatives, moderate conservatives could blow apart. A crafty old, principle-challenged party on its knees looking for any opportunity would not help but notice the blood in the water. This is why I think a real lurch to the right by the Liberals could happen especially if Harper moves further right himself.

NorthReport

Ole habits die hard, I suppose.

Say good nite to the Liberals - their long days in the sun are done!

Neck-and-neck federal race

 

http://www.threehundredeight.blogspot.ca/2012/04/neck-and-neck-federal-r...

Two federal polls were released last week showing a very tight race between the governing Conservatives and the opposition New Democrats. While the two surveys differ on what kind of momentum the Tories have, both show that the NDP is making significant gains, primarily at the expense of the Liberal Party.

The Léger poll is the most recent, and is also the most striking. It places the New Democrats ahead of the Conservatives with 33% to 32%, a gain of seven points for the NDP since Léger's last national survey ofFeb. 28-Mar. 5. The Tories, meanwhile, are down two points.

The Liberals slip five points to 19%, back to where they were in May 2011. The Greens are up one to 8% while the Bloc Québécois is down one to 7%.

The New Democrats lead in Atlantic Canada with 49% (+18), Quebec with 47% (+20), and British Columbia with 34% (unchanged). They are running second in the Prairies and Ontario with 26% support in each (a loss of seven points in the Prairies and a gain of three in Ontario).

--------------------

If we take the best and worst regional results for each party, we get a range of between 128 and 153 seats for the Conservatives on these numbers, with the New Democrats sitting between 108 and 143 seats. The Liberal range is between 24 and 46 seats - even a best-case-scenario results in only a minor gain of seats for the Liberals.

The New Democrats are only slightly above the 31% the party achieved under Jack Layton in May 2011, but the extra point or two makes all the difference, particularly when the Tories are down six to nine points. The NDP is in a strong position on the two coasts and looks capable of keeping (or even increasing) their representation in Quebec. But the Conservatives still have the advantage thanks to their wide lead in Ontario and the clump of seats they hold claim to between B.C. and Manitoba. Until the NDP can start to whittle away the Tory holdings in the West and in Ontario, they will have no hope of toppling the Conservatives without the help of the Liberal Party.

-----

- and from the comment section


It is becoming increasingly clear that the NDP has replaced the Liberals as the potential alternative for the Conservatives. This is at least true for 3 of the 6 regions of Canada. A few more points in Ontario and the NDP will complete the circle...

 

nicky

To answer the question about when the NDP previously topped the federal polls:

1. Sept 1967. The NDP led the Gallup poll by something like 29 to 28 to 28. This faded with Trudeau's accesseion.

2. In 86 and 87 the party was well ahead for a considerable period, spurred by Quebec figures over 40%.

3. Soon after Rae's win in Ontario in Sept 90 the federal party enjoyed a brief lead based largely on the Rae  honeymoon. He did have one and was in fact at 60% in one poll. Then events unfolded .....

Very Far Away

I believe Ontario will be the most important province for both Cons and NDP in the next elections. If NDP can`t reach 35% in Ontario, it`s almost impossible to have majority.

Ontario Resuts in the last federal election:

CP: 44.4% (77 seats)

NDP: 25.6% (22 seats)

LP: 25.3% (11 seats)

 

Last Harris Decima Poll (Ontario)

CP: 41% 

NDP: 26%

LP: 24%

 

Last Leger Poll (Ontario)

CP: 39%

NDP: 26%

LP: 25%

These 2 polls show that support for CP is still very strong and NDP and Liberals have almost the same % of votes in Ontario.

adma

And remember, when it comes to NDP potential, a 40% benchmark cannot simply be explained in raw, simplistic "left vote" terms--which is why the whole unite-the-left argument that's been hogging the spotlight at least since Free Trade in 1988 is balderdash.

In fact, consider that in the Ontario seats where the anti-Free Trade backlash had the most effect--the surprise Liberal gains and near-gains in what seemed to be heartland Tory country--the Grit vote really had more in common with the populistic Reform instinct of the 1990s.  While the zones where the PCs remained strongest were, basically, the future "Paul Martin Liberal" strongholds of the 905 belt, etc...

Life, the unive...

The key is to get less people to vote Conservative.  It really is that simple and that complex.

Very Far Away

Life, the universe, everything wrote:

The key is to get less people to vote Conservative.  It really is that simple and that complex.

 

Yes, it is.

In the last federal election, the voter turnout was 61.4%. (Compared to USA, this is good. Compared to some European countries, not good).

 

More than 9 million registered voters didn`t care to vote (CP got 5.8 million votes, NDP got 4.5 million votes).

We know that young voter turnout is around 40% (it was 37.4% in 2008). Support for CP in the older age group is high and these people go to polling stations. I think NDP should make young people go to polls.

In the last US Presidential election, people who never voted before voted for Obama. Also, Obama used internet (especially social media) very effectively. NDP should do the same thing.

 

bekayne

nicky wrote:

To answer the question about when the NDP previously topped the federal polls:

1. Sept 1967. The NDP led the Gallup poll by something like 29 to 28 to 28. This faded with Trudeau's accesseion.

I they didn't lead in 1967 but were 2nd ahead of the Tories. This was before Stanfield became leader. I think that the CCF briefly led the Gallup poll in 1943

nicky

Bekayne is right . I shd not have relied on my aging memory.

In Feb 1967 the Gallup results were : Lib 36, NDP 28, PC 26;

In giving the numbers I did I was probably thinking of the Aug 1943 Gallup which gave the CCF 29 to 28 each for the Libs and Cons.

adma

That Gallup figure wouldn't be surprising as--shades of Audrey in 1990--an Ontario echo-effect...

Ippurigakko

Good day

56% ongoing and 44% remaining since last week

 

CON 34% (from 38%)
NDP 32% (from 26%)
LIB 21% (from 24%)
GRN 9% (from 12%)
BQ 4% (from 5%)

 

Is it very similar to other polling firm?

 

Should I will another polls on sometime next month or summer and how see it going competitive on iPod/iPad/iPhone users who vote Cons, NDP, Libs, Grn, BQ? I have to pay this app cost between 1.99 to 9,99 (50 to 500 answers) this my poll was 100 answers i paid 3,99 for 100 users only, next time i can get 500 answers ppl.

David Young

How would a WildRose Party victory in Alberta resonate federally?

Would it be seen as a rejection of the 'centralist' policies that the Harper government has been implimeting since taking power, and the beginning of a new 'Reform' movement by the right-of-center voters?

Are the Harperites in more danger from the right-wing abandoning the Conservatves than from the Opposition parties?

 

 

Sean in Ottawa

Good questions David.

Answers are guesses.

There are two categories of responses:

1) Inside Alberta: There could be a honeymoon period where both the WR and by association the Harperites go up in popularity. However, a couple years out that could be a problem as what goes up usually comes back down especially if they implement such a divisive agenda. Also, it will cause some friction as they may try to pull Harper to their more extreme positions either making Harper's government more unpopular among centrists or allowing more obvious room for an alternative federal party on the right. The greatest problem for Harper will be the fuel for the right to want to achieve more with Harper and his inability to deliver without losing some of his constituency.

2) Outside Alberta: Concern about the election of such a right wing government in AB cannot help Harper federally given the fact that now that he has a majority there is renewed speculation of a long term hidden agenda. Friction with a WR government will make Harper have to choose between satisfying this more extreme base or keeping a wider group happy. Getting it wrong can be devastating. Move to the centre and a national WR party can form; move to the right and the Liberals (as I have said in other places) could pick a right-of-centre leader and move to pick up the centre right vote as they did in BC. (That person could come straight out of the BC cabinet). A move to the right could also over time simply fuel Mulcair. Certainly a WR victory complicates things for Harper. The nightmare scenario that he won't admit to would be a combo of WR in AB and Hudak in Ontario. This would for many reasons increase the chance of a Federal Mulcair government. It would put another party on the national stage that could challenge Harper from the right and not having a federal branch won't save Harper from the rhetoric.

As it is Harper is straddling a very wide space.

David Young

Have there been no poll results published over the past weeks?

It seems to me that it's been a long time between new results, or is it just possible that polling firms aren't happy with results that would show the NDP with a lead over the Conservatives?

Nah!  That's not possible....is it?

 

Stockholm

FYI: The latest Forum poll on Ontario politics also asked people how they would vote in a federal election:

CPC - 36%

NDP - 32%

Libs - 24%

Goodbye Liberals!

Brachina

Stockholm wrote:

FYI: The latest Forum poll on Ontario politics also asked people how they would vote in a federal election:

CPC - 36%

NDP - 32%

Libs - 24%

Goodbye Liberals!

The last Forum national poll had the Tories and NDP tied at 35 percent each, but in that poll Ontario was solidly Tory with them at roughly 40. If you removed the Ontario numbers from that poll and replaced them with these numbers, what would the national numbers be?

Brachina

The last forum poll had the NDP at 30 percent to the Tory 39 percent in Ontario and the Liberals 25 percent. That's a shift of -3 percent for the Tories, -1 percent for the Liberals, and +2 for the NDP. That doesn't seem like much until to look at how it all combines to shift the gaps. The NDP now has a lead over the Liberals of 8 percent instead of just 5 percent, and the Tories lead over the NDP has just shrunk to 4 percent which given bible belt vote sinks for the Tories means the NDP might win more seats then the Tories. Were not in majority territory yet, but a mere gain of 4 percent could change that (Ray only needed 36 percent,to win one).

Also interesting to note that it appears our modest gains were made at the expense of the,Tories, an especially bad sign for Stephen Harper.

Brachina

The last forum poll had the NDP at 30 percent to the Tory 39 percent in Ontario and the Liberals 25 percent. That's a shift of -3 percent for the Tories, -1 percent for the Liberals, and +2 for the NDP. That doesn't seem like much until to look at how it all combines to shift the gaps. The NDP now has a lead over the Liberals of 8 percent instead of just 5 percent, and the Tories lead over the NDP has just shrunk to 4 percent which given bible belt vote sinks for the Tories means the NDP might win more seats then the Tories. Were not in majority territory yet, but a mere gain of 4 percent could change that (Ray only needed 36 percent,to win one).

Also interesting to note that it appears our modest gains were made at the expense of the,Tories, an especially bad sign for Stephen Harper.

Aristotleded24

Brachina wrote:
The last forum poll had the NDP at 30 percent to the Tory 39 percent in Ontario and the Liberals 25 percent. That's a shift of -3 percent for the Tories, -1 percent for the Liberals, and +2 for the NDP. That doesn't seem like much until to look at how it all combines to shift the gaps. The NDP now has a lead over the Liberals of 8 percent instead of just 5 percent, and the Tories lead over the NDP has just shrunk to 4 percent which given bible belt vote sinks for the Tories means the NDP might win more seats then the Tories. Were not in majority territory yet, but a mere gain of 4 percent could change that (Ray only needed 36 percent,to win one). Also interesting to note that it appears our modest gains were made at the expense of the,Tories, an especially bad sign for Stephen Harper.

If it's good news, might as well say it more than once!Wink

Howard

Stockholm wrote:

FYI: The latest Forum poll on Ontario politics also asked people how they would vote in a federal election:

CPC - 36%

NDP - 32%

Libs - 24%

Goodbye Liberals!

If these numbers hold, you can say that again. The NDP would win almost every Lib-NDP match-up and the Conservatives would be vulnerable in some of the seats they took away from the Liberals in pre-2011 elections. It's hard to believe the Conservatives are so low in popular support. Still they have room to fall Smile

Pages