Latest polling thread - started March 21, 2012

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NorthReport
Latest polling thread - started March 21, 2012

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NorthReport

Politically, life is getting sweeter by the minute in BC.

Federal Conservatives trail NDP in BC; provincial Conservatives threaten BCl Liberals: Poll

 

http://thetyee.ca/Blogs/TheHook/Federal-Politics/2012/03/19/Conservative...

Slumberjack

Nationally, the persistent Conservative lead in the polls, despite everything, seems to suggest that the cumulative, decade upon decade exposure of the Canadian public to the routine criminality of Conservatives and Liberals alike, on the whole has had a numbing effect on the population. Where one might have previously been convinced by now that a third party would be standing in as the beneficiary of an upheaval revealed through the polling data itself, instead we can plainly see that a stasis has developed, indicative of a general lack of trust that has reached out to encompass the NDP as well. In its wisdom, if we can refer to it as such, the public accurately senses that it is trapped with nowhere to go.

socialdemocrati...

You also have to consider that Conservatives are so entrenched in their ideology that they'll forgive nearly any Conservative crime, as long as it keeps the liberals and socialists from ruining the country.

This number has to be at least 30% out of the 37-38% of their vote. (3/4 I guess.)

 

janfromthebruce

what I have found about all the polling from May 2011, is that the NDP has basically remained in the number 2 spot and well above the Liberals. So what does that indicate? To me it suggests that the polling questions do have an impact on how people respond and that people "accept" that the NDP is no. 2. There doesn't appear to be "buyer remorse".

socialdemocrati...

Most people aren't paying attention now. If the NDP were to fall, it would be out of the persistent habit of voting for the Liberals. "Didn't we just have an election? I guess I'd vote Liberal." The fact that we're hanging on is actually an excellent sign. It means we're more than just a blip. We're ready to become a habit. "Didn't we just have an election? I guess I'd vote NDP again."

 

JeffWells

Environics:

[url=http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/john-ibbitson/ndp-tie-torie...

NDP tie Tories in popular support[/url]

30/30/20 nationally and leading the Bloc by 4 in Quebec.

Ippurigakko

April 21, 2011 Environics:

CPC - 39
NDP - 25
LIB - 22
GRN - 7
BQ - 6

 

Current
CPC - 30 (-9 loss)
NDP - 30 (+5 gains)
LIB - 20 (-2 loss)
GRN - ?? maybe same 7 or one gain to 8?
BQ - 4 (-2 loss)

janfromthebruce

 

doing the happy happy dance - so leaderless or perhaps it's the spirit of Jack (the best of all spirits with love, hope & optism) keeping us where we are and the fact we are just plan right on and so Canadian!

JeffWells wrote:

Environics:

[url=http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/john-ibbitson/ndp-tie-torie...

NDP tie Tories in popular support[/url]

30/30/20 nationally and leading the Bloc by 4 in Quebec.

______________________________________________________________________________________ Our kids live together and play together in their communities, let's have them learn together too!

Aristotleded24

It's a bit too early to tell, still being in the first half of this majority mandate and the NDP without a permanent leader. Still, it suggests that the Conservative misdeeds are percolating in the minds of Canadian voters, and this could very well be the beginning of a sustained decline in Conservative support.

janfromthebruce

oh I sure hope so A24!

bekayne

Ippurigakko wrote:

April 21, 2011 Environics:

CPC - 39
NDP - 25
LIB - 22
GRN - 7
BQ - 6

 

Current
CPC - 30 (-9 loss)
NDP - 30 (+5 gains)
LIB - 20 (-2 loss)
GRN - ?? maybe same 7 or one gain to 8?
BQ - 4 (-2 loss)

The article has the BQ at 30% in Quebec, so that would be 7 or 8% nationally

Doug

JeffWells wrote:

Environics:

[url=http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/john-ibbitson/ndp-tie-torie...

NDP tie Tories in popular support[/url]

30/30/20 nationally and leading the Bloc by 4 in Quebec.

 

And that is a very very happy way to go into the convention!

Brachina

If the NDP had 42 percent that poll in Quebec like we had in the last election, we'd actually be beating the tories, I think we'd have like 33 percent nationally.

Brachina

btw is the Tories are down 10 and the Liberals and NDPers are at what we got during the last election, where did most of the that 10 percent go, I mean the Bloc could only absorbed so much of it.

Winston

I would hazard that it is more complicated than a straight transfer from the Tories to someone else.  I suspect that a lot of our support has bled to the BQ in Québec, but that a lot of Tory support has bled to us in BC and the Prairies.  In Ontario and the Maritimes, I would guess that there has been some transfer from the Tories to both the Liberals and us, as well as some additional bleeding from the Liberals to us.

Brachina wrote:
btw is the Tories are down 10 and the Liberals and NDPers are at what we got during the last election, where did most of the that 10 percent go, I mean the Bloc could only absorbed so much of it.

socialdemocrati...

There's a huge undecided portion of the vote between elections. I suspect a lot of them don't really like Harper, but hate anything leftward even more.

Policywonk

socialdemocraticmiddle wrote:

There's a huge undecided portion of the vote between elections. I suspect a lot of them don't really like Harper, but hate anything leftward even more.

Maybe, but a lot of them don't hate us, but are unsure about us.

socialdemocrati...

You're right, Policywonk. I still think in my gut, there are a lot of working class Conservative voters who have at one time voted NDP or considered voting NDP. One example: a lot of people were lured in by Harper promising to cut the GST by 1%. The NDP was going to promise the same, but decided not to, because it wasn't seen as "credible". At least that's what a conversation with a former candidate in my local riding told me.

Arthur Cramer Arthur Cramer's picture

More mischief from Eric Grenier. Talks about the Environics poll, then interpolates the previous and most recent Crop poll, mixes it all up, and throws out nonsense. How can anyone take that guy seriously? Who is he by the way, some high school student with a pc, blogging from his second story, suburban bungalow bedroom?

NorthReport

New poll shows Conservatives and NDP tied in popular support

 

http://ca.news.yahoo.com/blogs/canada-politics/poll-shows-conservatives-...

The Conservatives may have picked the wrong party to pick-on.

Earlier this week, Stephen Harper's crew released new campaign-style attack ads targeted directly at interim Liberal leader Bob Rae. But according to an Environics Research poll, they should have set their sights on the NDP and, believe it or not,  the Bloc Quebecois.

The survey, conducted by phone between March 6 and March 19, claims the Conservatives and NDP are now tied with 30 per cent support among voters.

That's about the same percentage of the popular vote that the NDP earned in the May 2 general election. For the Conservatives, it represents a drop of 10 points.

Pollster Darren Karasiuk says the Conservatives are clearly paying a price for the robocalls affair, plans to increase the qualifying age for Old Age Security, legislation that would give the government information on individual Internet accounts, and increased uncertainty over the costs of new fighter jets.

These issues "haven't been managed particularly well," he told the Globe and Mail.

"And they haven't been managed well in spite of the lack of solid and stable leadership from the NDP or Liberals.

"So there's a disappointment among Canadians — particularly soft Tories — that the promised benefits of a majority haven't materialized."

NorthReport

The main advantage a poll like this does 3 years before another election is they help with fund-raising and of course party morale Nothing succeeds like success

NDP and Conservatives neck and neck in new national pol

Gaian

Ibbitson in the Globe: "But if the Bloc is threatening to challenge the NDP’s newfound popularity in Quebec, the social democrats can take comfort in knowing they lead in British Columbia and Atlantic Canada, and are a close third in a three-way race for support in Ontario."

As though both parties are not made up of social democrats, distinguished by wearing federal or sovereignist hats, THE fundamental fact required to understand/interpret results on May 2.

NorthReport

1st ballot victory? It can't be that far off.

 

Mulcair - 45%

 

 

 

Topp - 6%

Cullen - 2%

Nash - 1%

Dewar - 1%

Cullen - 1%

Ashton - 0%

Singh - 0%

 

 

Sondage CROP: Thomas Mulcair règne sans partage

 

http://www.cyberpresse.ca/le-soleil/actualites/politique/201203/21/01-45...

À deux jours de l'élection d'un nouveau chef pour le Nouveau Parti démocratique (NPD), Thomas Mulcair est le choix quasi unanime des Québécois en mesure de se prononcer sur le sujet.

Selon un sondage CROP-Le Soleil-La Presse réalisé par Internet auprès de 1000 répondants entre le 15 et le 19 mars, le député d'Outremont reçoit l'appui de 45 % des Québécois, suivi de Brian Topp avec 6 % des intentions de vote.

Suivent Nathan Cullen à 2 %, Peggy Nash et Paul Dewar à 1% chacun, tandis que Niki Ashton et Martin Singh n'obtiennent aucun soutien.

Il faut noter que 6 % des répondants disent ne soutenir aucun des candidats, tandis que 41% ne savent pas lequel d'entre eux ferait le meilleur chef pour le NPD.

La domination de M. Mulcair est plus évidente encore parmi les électeurs de son parti, où il mène avec 54% des appuis contre 5% à M. Topp, 1% pour M. Dewar et rien pour les autres. Étonnamment, 38% des partisans néo-démocrates n'expriment aucune préférence.

Ces résultats font dire au sondeur Youri Rivest que «sans M. Mulcair, le NPD se retrouve devant une page blanche au Québec». Le nouveau chef retrouve le compteur «à zéro, dit-il, et devra d'abord se faire connaître rapidement des électeurs».

quizzical

former NDP voters coming back now the gun registry is gone?

Winston

Arthur Cramer wrote:

Who is he by the way, some high school student with a pc, blogging from his second story, suburban bungalow bedroom?

A two-story bungalow?

Hunky_Monkey

New Angus Reid...

Tories 37%
NDP 29%
Libs 21%
BQ 8%

Regardling the NDP leadership...

Quote:
Thomas Mulcair emerges as the leadership hopeful with the greatest potential to convert past Bloc and Liberal voters into NDP supporters.

http://www.angus-reid.com/polls/44447/conservatives-are-first-in-canada-...

knownothing knownothing's picture

Where's Debater?

Arthur Cramer Arthur Cramer's picture

Winston, you have probably figured it out, I'm not very smart, lol!

Winston

Arthur Cramer wrote:

Winston, you have probably figured it out, I'm not very smart, lol!

Art, I haven't figured it out...I think I'm the "not very smart" one.

Arthur Cramer Arthur Cramer's picture

RE: The Angus Reid poll. I suspect the real numbers are probably closer in the noise. I also am convinced we are doing better in Quebec then polls suggest. I don't buy either the Atlantic Canada numbers, or the BC numbers. I don't believe they are accurate. And another thing I notice, you don't hear the MSM saying anything about the NDP seemingly "coming back from the dead in Qubec". After all, that wouldnt' fit the narrative they have been trying to create. Weren't the NDP "dead" in Qubec? I wonder.

JKR

Conservatives Are First in Canada Despite Harper’s Low Momentum

Quote:

Since January, the leader who has lost the most ground on momentum is Harper, with the proportion of Canadians who say their views on him have worsened going from 30 per cent to 37 per cent.

I wouldn't be surprised if Harper takes a walk in the snow and steps down in 2014 to make room for a leader with less political baggage. Resigning would also give Harper the opportunity to make a fortune in the private sector like Mulroney did by stepping down well before he hit 60. Harper's personal wealth is relatively modest, so he may be especially tempted to benefit from being Canada's corporate poster boy.

Four frontrunners for the Conservatives that come to mind are Jim Prentice, Maxime Bernier, Peter McKay, and Bernard Lord.

jerrym

I think that you're right JKR. There is a good chance Harper will leave to reap the private sector benefits and to avoid the possibility of defeat. That's why we need to focus attacks on the Cons, not just Harper. In the 1980s, the NDP focused their attacks on Bill Bennett and succeeded in driving his poll numbers way down. However, he resigned and the Socreds "recreated" themselves with the Zalm to win the next election. We need to avoid that mistake this time.

socialdemocrati...

Harper may have baggage. But he's been the only guy who could unite the Reformers with the Progressive Conservatives. If you thought the NDP race was divisive, guaranteed the Conservative race would see some really nutty shit going out.

Harper is a Conservative, but he's ruthlessly strategic. The other Conservatives would wear their ideology on their sleeve, and pay a price with at least one part of their coalition, not to mention the country.

That's why it's so important that New Democrats stay united. We can't let bickering take the pressure off the real problem in this country.

simonvallee

No way that Harper would let go of his position before an electoral defeat, unless his party completely collapses and crashes, which is unfortunately unlikely. Harper is arrogant and a control freak, he doesn't trust his MPs and ministers to say anything that hasn't been vetted directly by his office, and you think he would leave before an election and entrust the future of the party to someone else? No way, not until he believes his party has no chance to win at all, then he will pull out, but not before.

As to the Environics poll saying that the voting intentions are tied, I'm afraid I am skeptic. No other poll shows that, most show Conservatives slightly down to 35-37% and the NDP at 29-30%. I think Environics is an outlier.

BTW, how can Canadian pollsters tolerate such high discrepancies in regional vote intentions? According to different polls, either the Conservatives are still way ahead in BC or the NDP has shot up with a strong lead. Don't they understand that when their regional results are so crappy, it puts their entire poll and reputation in a bad light? If you look at Québec, CROP and Léger have carefully crafted their expertise polling Québec, and movements in voting intentions tend to be slow and relatively smooth, they aren't jagged the way polls are in other provinces with strong peaks and quick declines all the time. Why don't Canadian pollsters develop exprtise for every province or region?

bekayne
Policywonk

The Environics poll may not be so much of an outlier.

JKR

bekayne wrote:

New Decima poll:

http://decima.com/sites/default/files/releases/2012/03/22/hd-2012-03-22-en1329.pdf

National
CPC: 31%
NDP: 28
LPC: 24
BQ:  8
GPC: 7

Ontario
CPC:  33
LPC:  30
NDP:  29

Quebec
BQ: 34
NDP: 28
LPC: 21

BC
NDP: 35
CPC: 33

Atlantic
NDP: 34  
LPC: 33
CPC: 26

socialdemocrati...

It's good that we're in better striking range across the country. But if the slippage in Quebec is true, we'll lose more seats than we gain.

The good news is we have a few years to build back up.

Arthur Cramer Arthur Cramer's picture

SD, so many other polls don't bear this out. I don't trust this poll to start off, but even if it is reasonably accurate, I don't believe the Quebec numbers at all.

Mucker

I think the Quebec numbers are so dependent on what happens today that they're not even worth speculating about right now.

Doug

It's nice to see issues polling as well as party support polling. Here's one on the level of public support for government spending cuts.

Most Ontario residents are braced for austerity in Tuesday’s provincial budget but are reluctant to see cuts to investments in infrastructure.

More than half of Ontarians — 56 per cent — are onside with deficit-slashing plans. Roughly half thought that boosting fees for drivers’ licences, drivers’ exams and vehicle registrations was a good idea.

But Ontario residents are not keen to see the elimination of full-day kindergarten classes — 49 per cent think that would be a bad idea, compared with 40 per cent who would like to see it chopped.

At the federal level, 61 per cent of Canadians would like to reduce spending by Ottawa in Thursday’s budget even if it meant reduced services.

But there is also strong support among Canadians — 74 per cent — for expanded government programs to help reduce unemployment, which stands at 7.4 per cent nationwide.

And almost three-quarters of Canadians want Ottawa to temporarily reduce the sales taxes on gasoline to help take the sting out of rising gas prices.

Unsurprisingly, it's all rather confused but I guess that just gives all parties an opportunity.

Stockholm

The poll about the Alberta election also includes a federal vote question - CPC 52%, NDP 18%, Libs 14%...#s like that could mean a second seat in Edmonton

https://www.forumresearch.com/forms/News%20Archives/News%20Releases/9716...

Arthur Cramer Arthur Cramer's picture

How the hell can the PCs have more then half the vote of the population? What is wrong with those people? Texas  North,thats all I can say. Wait until the oild starts to run out and then watch them cry. Bunch of jerks!

Stockholm

52% is actually a very low number for the CPC in Alberta. They usually poll in the high 60s.

Slumberjack

That's just it.  It's all those eastern and central Canadians who'd be swimming up to our eyeballs in their oil if it wasn't for the Conservatives protecting their interests.

bekayne

Stockholm wrote:

52% is actually a very low number for the CPC in Alberta. They usually poll in the high 60s.

It can be explained by the fact that 21% of the Wildrose supporters got confused & said "other" for their Federal preference

hatfield

new forum poll, first post leadership has CPC 35 NDP 35 LPC 19

NorthReport

Well that didn't take long. Smile

 

 

 

Poll: New Democrats riding Mulcair wave

http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/politics/article/1153428--poll-new-de...

 

The New Democrats are riding strong public support, helped by their performance in the Commons and the addition of their new leader, Thomas Mulcair, a new poll shows.

A survey done this week had the NDP tied with the Conservatives in public support at 35 per cent each. Just one in five Canadians — 19 per cent — backed the Liberals, their level of support in the last election.

The NDP are now seen as the most effective opposition, with 40 per cent of those polled endorsing the party’s performance. That’s up from 32 per cent earlier in the month.

At the same time, fewer than 25 per cent see the Liberals as the most effective opposition, down from 30 per cent at the start of the month.

The NDP have the strong support among younger voters, women and those living in the Prairies, British Columbia and Quebec, according to the poll conducted by Forum Research.

Approval ratings for Stephen Harper, Bob Rae and Thomas Mulcair are roughly tied at around 32 per cent. But almost half of those surveyed are still taking stock of Mulcair, who was selected party leader just last weekend.

Still, one-quarter of respondents say the choice of Mulcair as leader makes them more likely to vote NDP, and this includes 23 per cent of Liberal party supporters and about 18 per cent Green Party backers.

bekayne

Here's some more numbers:

http://www.hilltimes.com/news/politics/2012/03/28/ndp-leader-mulcair-overshadowing-liberals-rae-on-trust-sincerity-best-prime/30233

Mr. Harper had a moderate lead nationally when voters were asked which of the three leaders they thought would make the best prime minister. Thirty three per cent of respondents nationally favoured Mr. Harper as best choice for prime minister, with Mr. Mulcair at 27 per cent and Mr. Rae at 22 per cent. Seventeen per cent of the respondents said they did not know who they preferred.

In Quebec, where the margin of error was slightly higher because the sample of voter opinion was smaller, 48 per cent of the respondents favoured Mr. Mulcair as prime minister, compared to 17 per cent for Mr. Harper, 18 per cent for Mr. Rae and 17 per cent with no opinion.

Policywonk

NorthReport wrote:

Well that didn't take long. Smile

 

 

 

Poll: New Democrats riding Mulcair wave

http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/politics/article/1153428--poll-new-de...

 

The New Democrats are riding strong public support, helped by their performance in the Commons and the addition of their new leader, Thomas Mulcair, a new poll shows.

A survey done this week had the NDP tied with the Conservatives in public support at 35 per cent each. Just one in five Canadians — 19 per cent — backed the Liberals, their level of support in the last election.

The NDP are now seen as the most effective opposition, with 40 per cent of those polled endorsing the party’s performance. That’s up from 32 per cent earlier in the month.

At the same time, fewer than 25 per cent see the Liberals as the most effective opposition, down from 30 per cent at the start of the month.

The NDP have the strong support among younger voters, women and those living in the Prairies, British Columbia and Quebec, according to the poll conducted by Forum Research.

Approval ratings for Stephen Harper, Bob Rae and Thomas Mulcair are roughly tied at around 32 per cent. But almost half of those surveyed are still taking stock of Mulcair, who was selected party leader just last weekend.

Still, one-quarter of respondents say the choice of Mulcair as leader makes them more likely to vote NDP, and this includes 23 per cent of Liberal party supporters and about 18 per cent Green Party backers.

 

It wold be worrisome if there wasn't a bump after the Leadership Convention. It would be nice to know the regional numbers, but it sounds like BC, the Prairies and Quebec are better than Ontario and the Atlantic provinces.

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