Layton-led NDP Will Become the Official Opposition (Part 7)

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NorthReport
Layton-led NDP Will Become the Official Opposition (Part 7)

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NorthReport

Spring vote could be best bet for Layton, NDP

 

http://www.thestar.com/article/949616--hebert-spring-vote-could-be-best-...

NorthReport

Jack will be back, no need for back up: NDP

 

But Anne McGrath, Layton's Chief of Staff, told CBC News, "I believe that there's no need for contingency plans."

Layton's staff are confident he'll be able to physically endure a gruelling election campaign, should it happen. "I expect he will be out there front and centre during the election campaign. I can't see anything that will stop him," McGrath said.

McGrath visited Layton in Toronto's Mount Sinai hospital on Sunday. She says he was in good spirits, up and walking on crutches and reading stories to his granddaughter, Beatrice.

Layton's hospital room was also transformed into an office after his three-hour operation, McGrath says.

"We talked about his health obviously but we quickly got down to business. We discussed caucus this week, we talked about the legislation that's coming up in the House and the votes that are coming up in the House and we talked about election planning."

 

http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/inside-politics-blog/2011/03/jack-will-b...

NorthReport

Election-hungry opposition keeps snapping at Tories

 

 

http://www.ctv.ca/CTVNews/Canada/20110309/opposition-pre-budget-election...

NorthReport
NorthReport
NorthReport

K'naan to MPs: Voting down generic-drug bill would be slight to world's poor

 

Federal MPs will cast a final vote Wednesday on Bill C-393, an NDP private-member's bill that would fix the problems that have rendered Canada's Access to Medicines Regime ineffective.

 

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/ottawa-notebook/knaan-to-mp...

Sean in Ottawa

I assume someone from the federal NDP has already begged him to be a candidate...

If he did become a candidate there would be a really interesting dynamic within the NDP and I think a lot of people would vote that otherwise might not.

This is a smart guy who speaks well and has a good personal record.

If he wanted to be MP -- find a seat that has no candidate yet that is potentially winnable-- if he is willing to run just ot make noise then a more difficult seat but-- this is the kind of person we need more of in public life.

Of course he probably would prefer not to go down that road...

Sean in Ottawa

BTW-- do not expect the Liberals to go very far on the issue of letterhead use for partisan purposes. I have evidence in my office that they have done worse: not only used the official Commons letterhead for partisan purposes but tipped it in to something that was sold to make them money -- even though the taxpayer had funded it in part.

I hate the Cons but have been tempted to take this little item and drop it off in a brown envelope... I am not a fan of hypocrisy

NorthReport

There are many here that never thought that Layton could become Official Opposition Leader, but Jack is on his way to Stornoway, and voting NDP will the only way to stop put the brakes on Harper. The ground is shifting and we are reaching that tipping point.

 

Latest poll - March 10/11

AR

Cons - 39%

NDP - 17%

Libs - 23%

Quote:

 

Tories Ahead in Canada as Views on Ignatieff Fall Markedly

 

While Stephen Harper and Jack Layton improved their standing since December, more than half of respondents disapprove of Liberal leader.

Approval and Momentum

The first nine weeks of the year have been good for both Prime Minister and Conservative Party leader Stephen Harper and NDP leader Jack Layton. Harper's approval increased by six points since December 2010 to 32 per cent, and Layton gained nine points (34%). The approval rating for Liberal Party and Official Opposition leader Michael Ignatieff remains stagnant (14%), and his disapproval numbers increased by eight points (55%).

Ignatieff also has the worst momentum of all three party leaders at -26, while Harper stands at -16. Layton has managed to post a positive momentum score (+2), a feat that had eluded all leaders for the past six months.

 

While Stephen Harper and Jack Layton improved their standing since December, more than half of respondents disapprove of Liberal leader.

 

While Stephen Harper and Jack Layton improved their standing since December, more than half of respondents disapprove of Liberal leader.

Life, the unive...

Sorry NR, while I would love it if it were true, I do not see any evidence we have reached a tipping point.  I am old enough to easily remember when Ed Broadbent was the most popular leader in Canada.  Can't remember him in Stornaway, or 24 Sussex either.  Maybe it is just my memory though.  Do you remember different?

The Liberal brand has residual value far beyond its real worth.   Sad but true.

People seem willing to forgive the Conservatives most anything because they don't seem to care enough to bother noticing.  Sad but true.

The NDP has some wonderful candidates and a hard working caucus, but 16 years on a lot of people will still be voting against Bob Rae.  Sad but true.

ottawaobserver

LTU, whether it actually happens or not, I think Layton has put as many of the right conditions in place as possible going into this campaign. The harder he works, the luckier he'll get.

Life, the unive...

Oh I know that's true.  Layton has done an amazing job given where the NDP started, the times we live in and his health.   He has done everything and more to get to that breakthrough point.  My point was just that a popular leader does not make 'a tipping point'   It might make one possible, but that's a different thing.

NorthReport

LTU

I hear you.

The last poll of Nanos Research had the NDP at 19%. If Jack can raise that only 2% going into the election with momentum, if there is one, the NDP could possibly obtain support in the range of 25%.

Here's a possible projection:

Cons - 37%

NDP - 24%

Libs - 22%

Bloc - 12%

Other  - 5%

Total - 100%

 

ottawaobserver

NR, the Conservatives are only going down from 37% in my view. In fact, I think they've peaked too soon.

NorthReport

It's time to revive this thread, not necessarily about this issue in particular, but it's time.

 

Harper has stepped in it but now it is up to our media to pursue him. We need to be feeding the media every chance we get.

 

Harper's hypocrisy problem

 

http://www2.macleans.ca/2011/03/26/harpers-hypocrisy-problem/

 

NorthReport

It's time to revive this thread, not necessarily about this issue in particular, but it's time.

 

Harper has stepped in it but now it is up to our media to pursue him. We need to be feeding the media every chance we get.

 

Harper's hypocrisy problem

 

http://www2.macleans.ca/2011/03/26/harpers-hypocrisy-problem/

 

NorthReport

Pitiful.
Harper, Tories hurl C-word at Michael Ignatieff

 

Liberal leader has 'fallen into trap'

 

 

http://www.montrealgazette.com/news/Harper+Tories+hurl+word+Michael+Igna...

NorthReport

Pitiful.
Harper, Tories hurl C-word at Michael Ignatieff

 

In the event Canadians elect another minority government, the party that wins more seats than any other gets first crack at forming government. But then, it has to work to maintain the confidence of the House of Commons.

 

If Harper wins another minority in May, he risks losing the confidence of the House either when the speech from the throne is read or when the Conservatives present their budget - unless he works with other parties, as he has many times over the course of his five years in a minority, constitutional experts point out.

 

But a coalition of opposition parties could not take power unless it became clear that Harper had lost their confidence.

 

"All of Harper's talk about a coalition, it's an absolutely brilliant form of psychological operations, where you psych out the opposition with something that's completely irrelevant," said Errol Mendes, a professor of constitutional and international law at the University of Ottawa.

 

Thus, when Ignatieff announced he would not form a coalition, he played into Harper's hands, added Michael Behiels, a history professor at the University of Ottawa.

 

"It's all politics, and Ignatieff has fallen into the trap," he said. "He can never say he will never form a coalition because he doesn't know what situation he'll be in. But Harper has made him."

Liberal leader has 'fallen into trap'

 

 

http://www.montrealgazette.com/news/Harper+Tories+hurl+word+Michael+Igna...

NorthReport

Tories prepare for siege on Liberals' GTA holdings

 

 

http://www.thestar.com/news/article/962202--tories-prepare-for-siege-on-...

knownothing knownothing's picture

Jack is a personified symbol of Canada's health care system.

NorthReport

That's correct.

 

Smart move here by Jack.

 

Limited media access to Layton unusual for NDP

 

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/ottawa-notebook/limited-med...

JKR

Harper is clearly in the wrong about the issue of coalitions and how Parliament selects the PM.

If people are allowed to think this issue through, without bias, they will come to the conclusion that Harper is a crooked liar, hypocrite, and cheat.

I've never seen a PM twist facts to deceive the people like Harper has.

He's assaulting Parliament to win votes and in the process he's gaining the enmity of many people who understand what's going on.

That's why so many MP's can't abide Harper.

NorthReport

Another day, and another poll with more good news for Layton.

 

Ipsos leadership poll boosts Harper and Layton, devastating for Ignatieff

 

http://www.torontosun.com/blogs/thehill/2011/03/26/17763081.html

Aristotleded24

JKR wrote:
Harper is clearly in the wrong about the issue of coalitions and how Parliament selects the PM.

If people are allowed to think this issue through, without bias, they will come to the conclusion that Harper is a crooked liar, hypocrite, and cheat.

I've never seen a PM twist facts to deceive the people like Harper has.

That's exactly what Ed Broadbent said when the coalition first became an issue in late 2008. He contrasted previous Conservative leaders like Stanfield and Clark who "exaggerate (big deal, every politician has done so, even Broadbent)" and Harper, who "lies." ([url=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=otvqncg5czg]See this video here[/url]) He also recalled that for all his differences with previous Conservative leaders, they had integrity, played by the rules, and would resign if they lost the confidence of the House.

JKR

I can't think of any other Canadian politician who is as duplicitous as Harper. That he is PM makes it so much worse.

He reminds me of Dick Cheney and to a lesser extent, Richard Nixon.

We should give Harper the nickname "Tricky Dicky."

I wouldn't be surprised if Harper has studied Cheney's modus operandi. This guy stole an election, manipulated US policy behind the scenes, and got the US into a war on the grounds that Iraq had nuclear weapons.

I wouldn't be surprised if Harper keeps a photo of Cheney by his bedside.

NorthReport

Do you think they will ever get paid for the plane rental?

 

Liberal campaign hits plane snag

 

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/ottawa-notebook/liberal-cam...

gyor

What number do you see the ndp needing in quebec to start pulling in more then three seats in quebec?

no1important

NorthReport wrote:

Another day, and another poll with more good news for Layton.

 

Ipsos leadership poll boosts Harper and Layton, devastating for Ignatieff

 

http://www.torontosun.com/blogs/thehill/2011/03/26/17763081.html

 

 

Isn't Ipso's a pro conservative polling out anyway?

Nevertheless I think Iggy and the Libs are in for a lot of hurt this election...Iggy makes John Turner and Stephen Dion look great! What boggles me is Liberals like my MP don't see it....or maybe just do not want to admit the obvious?

 I just can not believe since Paul Martin and even Dion how the Liberals have fallen...I wonder if the libs do get wiped, will they change or continue with their entitlement attitude? They could of been in power but Iggy refused coalition when he first anointed Liberal Leader..That was a bad move as instead of getting rid of Harper he is back stronger than ever...

That poll looks great for Harper and I would not be shocked if Gilles or Jack move into Stornaway in May. :)

bekayne

JKR wrote:

I can't think of any other Canadian politician who is as duplicitous as Harper. That he is PM makes it so much worse.

He reminds me of Dick Cheney and to a lesser extent, Richard Nixon.

We should give Harper the nickname "Tricky Dicky."

I wouldn't be surprised if Harper has studied Cheney's modus operandi. This guy stole an election, manipulated US policy behind the scenes, and got the US into a war on the grounds that Iraq had nuclear weapons.

I wouldn't be surprised if Harper keeps a photo of Cheney by his bedside.

I would say more Nixon-completley obsessed with political straegy, punishing "enemies" & anyone or thing that had slighted him in the past. Didn't he once tell Paul Wells that he thinks strategy "24 hours a day"?

Paulitical Junkie

Some here seem to be OK with a Harper majority as long as it means a Liberal collapse. Ugh.

janfromthebruce

I don't get that impression at all Paulitical Junkie just that besides a few slight differences in policy positions there isn't much difference between Cons & libs so it's just indifference.

Doug

Paulitical Junkie wrote:

Some here seem to be OK with a Harper majority as long as it means a Liberal collapse. Ugh.

 

It's more that the silver lining to that cloud would be a Liberal collapse.

gyor

Paulitical Junkie wrote:

Some here seem to be OK with a Harper majority as long as it means a Liberal collapse. Ugh.

A majority for Harper is no gaureenty even if the Liberals collapse. It depends on wheather they collapse more on the the left then the right and how the votes spread out across the country as well as if the NDP can steal some cons ndp swing voters in say BC over the HST, the populist vote and all that.

Winston

Paulitical Junkie wrote:

Some here seem to be OK with a Harper majority as long as it means a Liberal collapse. Ugh.

 

It seems the Liberals are quite okay with the prospect of a Harper majority as long as it results in an NDP collapse.

To wit, while Jack was in BC and Alberta trying to peel off Conservative votes, Iggy was in Montreal trying to defeat NDPers and Bloquistes in Outremont, Ahuntsic, etc

Winston

On another related note, if you speak French (or have Google Chrome w/Translate), La Presse had a very interesting editorial about Liberal fortunes in Quebec:

Liberals headed to abbatoir

Anonymouse

ottawaobserver wrote:

NR, the Conservatives are only going down from 37% in my view. In fact, I think they've peaked too soon.

These new polls are going to shake things up in BC and Atlantic Canada. I think the NDP can remove several Conservative MPs in the process. We'll see if this gets any play in the prairies as well. I think these polls significantly boost the NDPs chances in Edmonton. Maybe CPC Edmonton East MP Peter Goldring is about to head into retirement.

Anonymouse

Winston wrote:

On another related note, if you speak French (or have Google Chrome w/Translate), La Presse had a very interesting editorial about Liberal fortunes in Quebec:

Liberals headed to abbatoir

I had to stop reading this article half-way through, it was just too brutal. Marissal pulls no punches.

NorthReport

NDP in 2nd place Woo! Hoo!

Cons - 36%

NDP - 25%, only 11% behind the Cons

Libs - 23%

Bloc - 6%

Grn - 6%

Jack finds his groove, NDP in reach of official opposition, says new Forum Research poll

A campaign that has until now been on 'auto-pilot' is suddenly turning into an electrifying run to the finish with a change so dramatic for the NDP that it could be in reach of becoming the official opposition, a Forum Research poll done in collaboration with The Hill Times suggests.

 

 

 

 

The NDP has made its largest gains in Quebec, with an astonishing surge past the Bloc Quebecois in decided and leaning voter support, but the party has also moved up in British Columbia, and Saskatchewan and Manitoba, where a rise in support can turn into new House of Commons seats for the party.

"This race has been on auto-pilot for three weeks, now we have some action and movement," said Forum Research President Lorne Bozinoff, adding that NDP Leader Jack Layton's performance in both the French and English televised debates last week likely started the groundswell, particularly in Quebec.

"It was probably sparked by the debate, and has continued to grow," Mr. Bozinoff told The Hill Times.

 

http://www.thehilltimes.ca/dailyupdate/view/jack_finds_his_groove_ndp_in...

alan smithee alan smithee's picture

This made me smile.

 

http://montreal.ctv.ca/servlet/an/local/CTVNews/20110421/mtl_poll_quebec...

 

Seems the NDP is out polling the Bloc in Quebec and more Canadians (OK,a whole 2% but nonetheless) dislike Harper more than Ignatieff and Layton's popularity is almost 20% more than bothe Harpie and Iggy.

I'm also optimistic that the new 'abortion'scandal may actually kill the cons in Quebec.

Sean in Ottawa

This is all great news.

Hopefully the NDP brass and supporters will refrain from the temptation to get smug -- 1.5 weeks is a long time in an election and peaking early gives no results other than memories and regrets. And the party is not winning -- it remains behind Harper and within a statistical tie nationally with the Liberals-- subject to change.

Remember the forces that are taking notice now are not inconsiderable.

As well, I have mixed feelings about the BQ being humiliated. I would like Confederation to remain together but this will come through engagement not sweeping away. The NDP better recognize the responsibility they will have. If they were to replace the BQ as Quebec's largest party they will take on the resolution of the divide since they cannot take just one side as the BQ did, they will need to find a reconciliation between the two with so many having an interest in seeing them fail. The NDP better have a clear head about what this would mean. If the party wins the confidence of Quebec, the tightrope will begin.

I will hope for the best, encourage humility and extreme caution and advise that there is a lot of work ahead both before and after election day.

Sean in Ottawa

alan smithee wrote:

This made me smile.

 

http://montreal.ctv.ca/servlet/an/local/CTVNews/20110421/mtl_poll_quebec...

 

Seems the NDP is out polling the Bloc in Quebec and more Canadians (OK,a whole 2% but nonetheless) dislike Harper more than Ignatieff and Layton's popularity is almost 20% more than bothe Harpie and Iggy.

I'm also optimistic that the new 'abortion'scandal may actually kill the cons in Quebec.

And did you notice the comments on the bottom?

Anonymouse

I don't think humility will be a problem for the NDP. It has been 60 years of humility for the party and it ain't over yet.

alan smithee alan smithee's picture

Sean in Ottawa wrote:

alan smithee wrote:

This made me smile.

 

http://montreal.ctv.ca/servlet/an/local/CTVNews/20110421/mtl_poll_quebec...

 

Seems the NDP is out polling the Bloc in Quebec and more Canadians (OK,a whole 2% but nonetheless) dislike Harper more than Ignatieff and Layton's popularity is almost 20% more than bothe Harpie and Iggy.

I'm also optimistic that the new 'abortion'scandal may actually kill the cons in Quebec.

And did you notice the comments on the bottom?

 

Usually I ignore MSM comments.

But I have taken a look at some of the comments for some of the stories I've read in the MSM that were optimistic.

I expect people at rabble to be supportive of the NDP and hate the Liberals and the Conservatives.

When the posters at MSM stories look like rabble readers,it gives me hope.

NorthReport

Well said Sean.

alan smithee alan smithee's picture

I have to interject about the NDP having to walk a tightrope in Quebec.

The NDP supports bill 101 and is open to many sovereignist issues in Quebec and in regards to the ROC.

This is why the Bloc are going to shift all their attention onto the NDP for the rest of the election.

alan smithee alan smithee's picture

Your candidates for 2011.

Gilles Duceppe back in his student activist days.(I think it's safe to assume that he inhaled)

 

 

Stephen Harper...Hoser.

 

 

Jack Layton...Won't shave the stache until elected PM.

 

 

Michael Ignatieff...Fresh from his first acting job in Ferris Bueller's Day Off.

Anonymouse

Young Duceppe is the guy I'd most like to have a beer with.

Frmrsldr

Holy shit!

Herr Harper looks like Ringo Starr (sans whispy moustache) of the mid 1960s.

Jack Layton looks like that actor from CBC Television's "Seeing Things" ("Ciccone", I think) from the early or mid 1980s.

Definitely, Gilles Duceppe looks like the most 'hip' guy.

NorthReport

NDP official Opposition not so implausible

One thing's for certain: the numbers have all parties on edge, perhaps none more so than the Liberals.

 

"Two weeks ago, the Liberals would have laughed at the suggestion that such a thing was possible," former Liberal strategist Warren Kinsella said of the idea that the NDP could become the official Opposition.

 

"As of (Thursday) morning, they're not laughing anymore."

 

And with the Easter long weekend eating up the next few days, Kinsella suggested there's precious little time left before the May 2 vote for parties to gang up on Layton in a bid to change the tide.

 

But if Layton were to come in second, former Conservative strategist Goldy Hyder foresees it occurring in the context of a Harper majority. He also suggested there's a lot of "ifs" on Layton's road to Stornoway, which is why he still chalks the idea up to "fantasy."

 

Layton ultimately has to "convert the momentum in polling into actual votes," he said, adding that's no easy task for a party that's "never been seen as a legitimate threat to form a government."

 

The party often surges after the debates only to fall flat come election day, and Layton's support may be too spread out. Vote-splitting on the left, Hyder argued, could end up helping other parties - such as the Bloc in Quebec and the Conservatives elsewhere - "come up the middle." He suggested the NDP also lacks the infrastructure to "get out the vote" come election day.

 

"If it happens, it would be - with the greatest respect - an accident," Hyder quipped. "I didn't say a train wreck. I just said an accident."

 

Ian Capstick, a former strategist with the NDP, obviously disagrees.

 

For one thing, he's "not prepared to concede a Harper majority" and he believes the New Democrats are poised to pick up new seats in Saskatchewan, Alberta, British Columbia and Quebec.

 

He argues Layton is both literally and figuratively a "long-tack sailor" who's been building his election team and working hard to attract quality candidates for years, and that those efforts are now paying off.

 

"I think this is one of those if-you-shoot-for-the-stars-you-may-land-on the-moon scenarios," he said.

 

http://www.vancouversun.com/news/decision-canada/official+Opposition+imp...

bekayne

NorthReport wrote:

NDP official Opposition not so implausible

One thing's for certain: the numbers have all parties on edge, perhaps none more so than the Liberals.

 

"Two weeks ago, the Liberals would have laughed at the suggestion that such a thing was possible," former Liberal strategist Warren Kinsella said of the idea that the NDP could become the official Opposition.

 

"As of (Thursday) morning, they're not laughing anymore."

 

And with the Easter long weekend eating up the next few days, Kinsella suggested there's precious little time left before the May 2 vote for parties to gang up on Layton in a bid to change the tide.

 

But if Layton were to come in second, former Conservative strategist Goldy Hyder foresees it occurring in the context of a Harper majority. He also suggested there's a lot of "ifs" on Layton's road to Stornoway, which is why he still chalks the idea up to "fantasy."

 

Layton ultimately has to "convert the momentum in polling into actual votes," he said, adding that's no easy task for a party that's "never been seen as a legitimate threat to form a government."

 

The party often surges after the debates only to fall flat come election day, and Layton's support may be too spread out. Vote-splitting on the left, Hyder argued, could end up helping other parties - such as the Bloc in Quebec and the Conservatives elsewhere - "come up the middle." He suggested the NDP also lacks the infrastructure to "get out the vote" come election day.

 

"If it happens, it would be - with the greatest respect - an accident," Hyder quipped. "I didn't say a train wreck. I just said an accident."

 

Ian Capstick, a former strategist with the NDP, obviously disagrees.

 

For one thing, he's "not prepared to concede a Harper majority" and he believes the New Democrats are poised to pick up new seats in Saskatchewan, Alberta, British Columbia and Quebec.

 

He argues Layton is both literally and figuratively a "long-tack sailor" who's been building his election team and working hard to attract quality candidates for years, and that those efforts are now paying off.

 

"I think this is one of those if-you-shoot-for-the-stars-you-may-land-on the-moon scenarios," he said.

 

http://www.vancouversun.com/news/decision-canada/official+Opposition+imp...

 

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