Layton-led NDP Will Become the Official Opposition (Part 7)

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NorthReport

Why did you just copy the post without adding any imput?

bekayne

NorthReport wrote:

Why did you just copy the post without adding any imput?

I edited something out

NorthReport

How high can the NDP go?

 

First of all, some analysts will argue that the NDP's surge in Quebec won't translate into many additional seats, because of, among other reasons, the total lack of electoral organization in this province to get the vote out. Well, I'm not among these analysts, and remember they were the same who thought Mr. Harper and the Conservatives would win at most two seats in Quebec in 2006, or that Mario Dumont and the ADQ could at best grab 15 seats provincially in 2007.

The fact is that when a party increases from 12.5% to above 30%, this is a major change and seats are won. In this case, the question is whether the NDP's rise affects the Bloc or the Liberals (or even splits the vote enough to allow the Conservatives to win). The answer is complex.

Assuming the Bloc is as low as 30% and the NDP climbs up to 20%, Mr. Layton would probably win only two to four seats, max, and the vote split would give three to four ridings to the Tories. Then, when the NDP increases into the mid-20s, it no longer only splits the vote but actually grabs seats, from the Grits and Bloc. And past 30%, the Bloc and Liberals really start to suffer - especially the Bloc, who could be left with as few as 25 seats. For the separatist party, the NDP is an all-new enemy and they only have one week left to fight it.

Would it be enough to finish second and be the official opposition? Well, if the NDP finishes first in Quebec, the short answer is: yes.

If the surge lasts until May 2, the NDP could well go as high as 70 seats nationally. It would of course depend whether the orange wave in Quebec would spread elsewhere or not. So far, it seems the NDP is rising pretty much everywhere but in Ontario. If the orange wave was to get there as well, Michael Ignatieff would be in big trouble.

 

 

http://news.nationalpost.com/2011/04/22/poll-analysis-how-high-can-the-n...

NorthReport

Why Layton's fit for office
Brian Topp

 

There is this: One of the necessary preconditions to "succeeding" is having a new and better federal government that francophone Quebeckers see themselves in, and that is working on priorities they support.

There is this: In the 1998 reference case, the Supreme Court wrote the rulebook on any future referendum, should there be one but hopefully there won't. Both then-Quebec premier Lucien Bouchard and then-prime minister Jean Chrétien welcomed this ruling at the time.

And there is this: Fewer Bloc MPs in Parliament is good for Quebec and good for the rest of Canada. Working to re-involve francophone Quebecers in the governance of Canada is what Canadians hope and expect an aspirant for prime minister to do. Acknowledging this issue, as Mr. Layton did when asked (as anyone campaigning in Quebec inevitably will be) is respectful of the views of francophone Quebeckers, and is therefore good nation-building.

Mr. Layton is making a remarkable contribution to Canada in this election by reaching out successfully to French-speaking Quebeckers - something that has eluded all other national leaders in Canada for over twenty years. He has addressed these issues responsibly and with due respect for Canada's unity, our laws, our democracy and our respect for each other.

That's what people who are fit for office do.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/second-reading/brian-topp/w...

Randomics

Yes, Brian Topp's piece took me by surprise too, given the publication (which, predictably, endorsed Harper today). If Chantal Hebert was less of a LPC cheerleader she might have made the same observations - though her slo-mo plane crash piece today was pretty funny.

Whatever your idealogical stripe, honest reflection will credit Jack for restoring some credibility to the federalist cause in Quebec.

Randomics

er, make that ideological - though hopefully your ideas are logical too. And not striped.

Boom Boom Boom Boom's picture

Reading Nanos this morning, if the surge continues right to Monday, it looks to me that Jack Layton will be Prime Minister - without the need for a coalition. Amazing.

NorthReport

I almost chocked on my orange juice reading this this morning. Is he on drugs? Laughing

 

Siddiqui: Layton to the rescue

 

 

http://www.thestar.com/opinion/editorialopinion/article/981575--siddiqui...

janfromthebruce

Well Siddiqui has always been a "realist anti-war" writer!

 

NorthReport wrote:

I almost chocked on my orange juice reading this this morning. Is he on drugs? Laughing

 

Siddiqui: Layton to the rescue

 

 

http://www.thestar.com/opinion/editorialopinion/article/981575--siddiqui...

______________________________________________________________________________________ Our kids live together and play together in their communities, let's have them learn together too!

Randomics

Maybe the Star is preparing to endorse the NDP after all...

NorthReport wrote:

I almost chocked on my orange juice reading this this morning. Is he on drugs? Laughing

 

Siddiqui: Layton to the rescue

 

 

http://www.thestar.com/opinion/editorialopinion/article/981575--siddiqui...

alan smithee alan smithee's picture

Randomics wrote:

Maybe the Star is preparing to endorse the NDP after all...

NorthReport wrote:

I almost chocked on my orange juice reading this this morning. Is he on drugs? Laughing

 

Siddiqui: Layton to the rescue

 

 

http://www.thestar.com/opinion/editorialopinion/article/981575--siddiqui...

 

A great article.

It hit all of Harper's failings.

A comprehensive list of why Harper should NOT be PM of Canada.

Too bad this list is not published in all our media.

It's not sensationalist or biased...It's fact.

And that's the job of the media...reporting FACTS....Well...atleast in theory,anyway.

NorthReport

Jack's OK, but the coalition of losers, Harper and Ignatieff are both duds and need to go.

That Jack, he's the mack 2 Despite the nutty policies, the polls say people love Layton. Why not? He's a hell of a guy

They back Jack.

Jack's got the knack. The others? They yak, but they lack.

There you go: Some really (really) bad poetry, designed to neatly sum up Election 2011. There'll be lots of much smarter political analysis this weekend, but I'm sticking to my pithy rhyming couplets.

Whether he captures the keys to 24 Sussex or not, the NDP's Jack Layton is the winner of this campaign, hands down. Stephen Harper and Michael Ignatieff have lost. Why, you ask?

There are lots of reasons: Harper ran a lousy, uninspiring campaign. Ignatieff pushed for an election when he should have pulled. Both men are seen as conservative and conservative-lite, and the country is apparently fed up with policies that are nasty, brutish and short-sighted.

But the main reason why Layton will make history Monday night? The best explanation for why he is going to be leader of Her Majesty's loyal Opposition - or maybe even her prime minister?

Because Jack is the most likeable leader, that's why. He's a HOAG.

I've written about my "Hell Of A Guy" theory in these pages before. As the political cliche goes, you can picture yourself at a tailgate party with Jack, swigging Buds, telling lies about the ones that got away. Steve-o and Iggy, you just can't. Standing behind a podium in an early-morning university class, giving you a lousy mark because you spelled "Milton Friedman" wrong in an essay, sure. But HOAGs? Nope.

http://www.torontosu...ck-hes-the-mack

adma

The interesting thing about the Kinsella spin and whatever else (including the "Common Sense Revolution 2.0" argument) is...back in Ontario's 1990 Rae-landslide election, Mike Harris really *was* something of a Layton figure, the most HOAG leader running (Rae being nerdy, Peterson gone politically fat and complacent).  As w/Layton until the present Orange Wave, it was a case of "great guy, shame about the party"--back when the provincial PCs were still crippled by the 1987 Larry Grossman disaster as well as Mulroney's rock-bottom federal polling numbers.  Harris couldn't win that year; but he saved face, which was enough to set the stage for 1995...

NorthReport

Congratulations to the victors. Now that's out of the way it is obviously a bittersweet nite.

I blame the CBC, the Toronto Star, the Liberals, and people like Murray Dobbin for Harper's majority. And you can rest assured it is going to a be a long hard 4 or 5 years for us.

Afer listening to them for a bit tonite, the CBC News Department obviously still hasn't clued in, and hopefully Harper dismantles the entire CBC News Department. Where's the puke bag!

NorthReport

Meanwhile back in the real world Ignatieff politically was, is, and forever will be, a dud, giving the Liberals their worst showing ever in Canadian political history, and he needs to run, not walk, away which will probably occur tomorrow.

NDPP

NDP Will Abet Big Business in Imposing Its Class War Agenda  - by Keith Jones

http://www.wsws.org/articles/2011/may2011/cndp-m02.shtml

"...in the NDP the Canadian ruling elite has a pliant tool...it is an instrument of the Canadian bourgeoisie for disorganizing the working class."

all cats now Mouseland...

NorthReport

Goodbye Mr Ignatieff, you were hopeless politically.

NorthReport

How the Liberal meltdown gave Stephen Harper his majority

 

 

 

http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/canadavotes2011/story/2011/05/03/cv-elec...

NorthReport

How the Liberal meltdown gave Stephen Harper his majority

 

 

 

http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/canadavotes2011/story/2011/05/03/cv-elec...

gyor

NorthReport wrote:

Congratulations to the victors. Now that's out of the way it is obviously a bittersweet nite.

I blame the CBC, the Toronto Star, the Liberals, and people like Murray Dobbin for Harper's majority. And you can rest assured it is going to a be a long hard 4 or 5 years for us.

Afer listening to them for a bit tonite, the CBC News Department obviously still hasn't clued in, and hopefully Harper dismantles the entire CBC News Department. Where's the puke bag!

On the bright side you were right about the NDP winning official opposition status. Does anyone know all the benifits that brings? I mean aside from the cool pad in Ottawa of course.

Also on the brightside, we took out some cabinate ministers, the NDP still has the biggest room for growth of any party. Also next time the NDP will be taken more seriously as the government in waiting. We have some amazingly talented people in cacus not just students as some have tried to paint us.

Next in Ontario we will have to have this battle all over again in the Fall, but this federal election will effect what happens here.

knownothing knownothing's picture

Ignatieff is not to blame. The Libs are a damaged brand and don't stand for anything. he should have showed up to the House though!

 

The Liberals or NDPers who voted Liberal split the vote. Murray Dobbin, Projectdemocracy and other Liberal propoganda are to blame for this.

gyor

knownothing wrote:

Ignatieff is not to blame. The Libs are a damaged brand and don't stand for anything. he should have showed up to the House though!

 

The Liberals or NDPers who voted Liberal split the vote. Murray Dobbin, Projectdemocracy and other Liberal propoganda are to blame for this.

I agree with the latter but not with the former. Jack offered the keys to 24 sussex first to Dion and then to Iggy and Iggy rebuffed both. If not for Iggy's arrogence and rebuffing of the coalition we would be governed by coalition right now. As to the latter part I agree and I look forward to seeing how many seats these antidemocracy liberals cost us. If the antiharper tactic had been as focus on one progressive party in the ROC the way it was in Quebec Jack Layton would be Prime Minister of Canada right now, instead they promoted a crippled weak directionless party and undermined the guy who had the strength and talent and charm to win it. Hopefully Jack will be able to consolidate the antiharper vote in the ROC the way he in the rest of Canada. Remember that Jack had a 10 year plan for Quebec and he achieved it earily. Now he can focus on using Quebec to win the ROC.

NorthReport

The NDP was very successful last nite in this bittersweet victory, however the NDP needs some organizational upgrades to their strategy to help win the next election.

Mulcair is probably going to be the next NDP Leader when Jack has had enough (although I would like to see Don Davies give the Leadership some consideration), and Mulcair is current Deputy Leader, so perhaps Jack or the Caucus or the Executive, whoever makes these decisions, could assign Deputy Leader positions for each of the five major regions in Canada populationwise - that is BC, Prairies, Ontario, Quebec, and the Atlantic Region. The NDP hopes to form government next election, so a much higher presence / profile is required in the four other regions outside Quebec. If the NDP does go ahead and assign a total of four additional Deputy Leaders, one for each region, and no slight intended towards the Northern ridings, does anyone have suggestions for these various Deputy Leader positions?

 

Malcolm Malcolm's picture

Probably not five Deputy Leaders, but front benchers with regional responsibilities.  Mulcair should remain as Deputy because he will be important in wrnagling 50+ rookies.

Anonymouse

Mulcair's ego will be brimming. Lol. Jack better watch his back once the Tories start going after the leader a la Ignatieff.

NorthReport

knownothing knownothing's picture

Anonymouse wrote:

Mulcair's ego will be brimming. Lol. Jack better watch his back once the Tories start going after the leader a la Ignatieff.

 

I just hope Jack gets some rest he looks like he needs it.

Kara

NorthReport wrote:

Mulcair is probably going to be the next NDP Leader when Jack has had enough (although I would like to see Don Davies give the Leadership some consideration), and Mulcair is current Deputy Leader, so perhaps Jack or the Caucus or the Executive, whoever makes these decisions, could assign Deputy Leader positions for each of the five major regions in Canada populationwise - that is BC, Prairies, Ontario, Quebec, and the Atlantic Region.

Why would anyone want an asshole like Mulcair as leader of the NDP?  He was the one NDP candidate I was hoping would lose (even though I knew he wouldn't).  The NDP has much better people in the party to take over the leadership.  I've never been a great supporter of Layton, but if Mulcair became leader, I'd abandon the party permanently.

Aristotleded24

Kara wrote:
Why would anyone want an asshole like Mulcair as leader of the NDP?  He was the one NDP candidate I was hoping would lose (even though I knew he wouldn't).  The NDP has much better people in the party to take over the leadership.  I've never been a great supporter of Layton, but if Mulcair became leader, I'd abandon the party permanently.

There's other reasons why I wouldn't want Mulcair to be leader which I'll have plenty of time to discuss later. Right now I'll say the kiss of death is that the media seems to be talking up this possibility. The media has a horrible track record when it comes to picking successful leaders. Think Paul Martin, Dwain Lingenfelter, Andre Boisclair, and Greg Sellinger off the top of my head. Thankfully, BC NDPers saw through that game and didn't vote for Farnworth. There they have a chance.

thorin_bane

Mulcair regardless of personality, certainly knows how to debate and facts. If you ever see hom on P&P he ALWAYS demolishes the other parties. That might be why. I like jack, but if he debated as well as mulcair, he would probably be trying to decide who was in cabinet right now.

Kara

thorin_bane wrote:

Mulcair regardless of personality, certainly knows how to debate and facts. If you ever see hom on P&P he ALWAYS demolishes the other parties. That might be why. I like jack, but if he debated as well as mulcair, he would probably be trying to decide who was in cabinet right now.

Okay, so the ability to debate well is more important than having principles?  Gaining power is more important than having principles?  No thanks.  Mulcair is an opportunist who will throw people from within his own party under the bus to gain a political advantage for himself.  He'll sell out anyone if it gives him an advantage.  The sooner he is gone, the better.

alan smithee alan smithee's picture

It certainly didn't take long.

48 hours after the election,the media is attacking the NDP.

Seems one of the Quebec MP's who took a Las Vegas vacation during the campaign,is now being charged with falsifying her documents.

It looks as though the MSM are going to work hard to discredit the NDP.

SRB

Now Mulcair has just started an unnecessary fire and discredited the NDP when he didn't need to do so.  It's very frustrating.  He was careless enough to question the existence of photos of Bin Laden on Power and Politics as well as making some incautious remarks about international law, and now Evan Solomon, Greg Weston and Tasha Kheiriddin are all yucking it up over what a major gaffe from a so-called serious MP this was.  As I said in another thread, is the NDP really going to take a position questioning US claims?  Mind you, it's disgusting to see how much the media are all enjoying this (except Ian Capstick, who is attempting ineffectually to put out the fire)

But why did Mulcair even speak to this when he didn't have to do so?  It just gives ammunition to all our enemies.

alan smithee alan smithee's picture

Why can't one of our elected MP's question the obvious?

The whole bin Laden affair is VERY suspicious...From the fact that the U.S. murdered his wife and son,to the fact that bin Laden apparently was unarmed,or how to identify the body as bin Laden AFTER they shot him in the face and why his body was disposed of IMMEDIATELY into the ocean.

Maybe he didn't have to address it but it really needs some serious addressing.

Even my apolitical mother finds the bin Laden 'death' suspicious.

SRB

alan smithee wrote:

Why can't one of our elected MP's question the obvious?

The whole bin Laden affair is VERY suspicious...From the fact that the U.S. murdered his wife and son,to the fact that bin Laden apparently was unarmed,or how to identify the body as bin Laden AFTER they shot him in the face and why his body was disposed of IMMEDIATELY into the ocean.

Maybe he didn't have to address it but it really needs some serious addressing.

Even my apolitical mother finds the bin Laden 'death' suspicious.

I agree it is suspicious.  But you'd have to be stupid not to realize how the MSM would react to this and how much they will enjoy questioning and discrediting the 'seriousness' of the NDP.  Since the President is sticking to this story, it seems rather unwise to be openly questioning it and implying that he is a liar.

alan smithee alan smithee's picture

Well...I'm certainly NOT stupid.

That's the whole reason why I smell something very foul about this whole bin Laden thing.

And of course the MSM will contort any criticism directed at the Corporate Imperialist establishment ESPECIALLY if it's coming from the mouth of a 'pinko'

But I'm tired of playing stupid just because a portion of the populace can't handle the truth.

Anonymouse

knownothing wrote:

Anonymouse wrote:

Mulcair's ego will be brimming. Lol. Jack better watch his back once the Tories start going after the leader a la Ignatieff.

I just hope Jack gets some rest he looks like he needs it.

He deserves a long vacation. What a campaign! Smile

SRB

alan smithee wrote:

Well...I'm certainly NOT stupid.

<snip>

But I'm tired of playing stupid just because a portion of the populace can't handle the truth.

alan, I apologize because I did not mean to suggest that I thought you were stupid. I meant that Mulcair was stupid, not for questioning the US version of events, but for mentioning it to the Right-wing media who were bound to jump all over it.  I think there are more important things to talk about right now in these early days.  I don't want to give any airtime to the story, and now the party has had to issue a clarifying statement parrotting the American line.

alan smithee alan smithee's picture

SRB wrote:

alan smithee wrote:

Well...I'm certainly NOT stupid.

<snip>

But I'm tired of playing stupid just because a portion of the populace can't handle the truth.

alan, I apologize because I did not mean to suggest that I thought you were stupid. I meant that Mulcair was stupid, not for questioning the US version of events, but for mentioning it to the Right-wing media who were bound to jump all over it.  I think there are more important things to talk about right now in these early days.  I don't want to give any airtime to the story, and now the party has had to issue a clarifying statement parrotting the American line.

No need to apologize..Things tend to get lost in translation in print.

Should these events be questioned?...Absolutely.

But you're right.

Now is not the time...Let's wait until Paliament reconvenes...And tend to domestic issues first and foremost.

Share opinions on foreign affairs when they're brought up in Parliament and not feed the cockroaches that infest the MSM.

 

Frmrsldr

Kara wrote:

thorin_bane wrote:

Mulcair regardless of personality, certainly knows how to debate and facts. If you ever see hom on P&P he ALWAYS demolishes the other parties. That might be why. I like jack, but if he debated as well as mulcair, he would probably be trying to decide who was in cabinet right now.

Okay, so the ability to debate well is more important than having principles?  Gaining power is more important than having principles?  No thanks.  Mulcair is an opportunist who will throw people from within his own party under the bus to gain a political advantage for himself.  He'll sell out anyone if it gives him an advantage.  The sooner he is gone, the better.

As repugnant as that is

look at where it got Herr Harper.

Sometimes idealism has to (temporarily) take a fall for realism.

Frmrsldr

alan smithee wrote:

Why can't one of our elected MP's question the obvious?

The whole bin Laden affair is VERY suspicious...From the fact that the U.S. murdered his wife and son,to the fact that bin Laden apparently was unarmed,or how to identify the body as bin Laden AFTER they shot him in the face and why his body was disposed of IMMEDIATELY into the ocean.

Maybe he didn't have to address it but it really needs some serious addressing.

Even my apolitical mother finds the bin Laden 'death' suspicious.

This whole Bin Laden thing's a fucking joke.

Frmrsldr

alan smithee wrote:

But I'm tired of playing stupid just because a portion of the populace can't handle the truth.

Truth?

There is no truth.

Truth is something you sell the public.

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