Nanaimo-Ladysmith By-Election For May 6th

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Mighty Middle
Nanaimo-Ladysmith By-Election For May 6th

Paul Manly is switching parties and running under the Green Party banner instead of the NDP, after be was blocked from running in 2015

Ken Burch Ken Burch's picture

MM, would you mind editing your headline to include the date of the by-election, May 6th?  It would be a useful bit of info given that the by-election has just now been called.  Thanks.

Mighty Middle

Ken Burch wrote:

MM, would you mind editing your headline to include the date of the by-election, May 6th?  It would be a useful bit of info given that the by-election has just now been called.  Thanks.

Done!

Ken Burch Ken Burch's picture

Mighty Middle wrote:

Ken Burch wrote:

MM, would you mind editing your headline to include the date of the by-election, May 6th?  It would be a useful bit of info given that the by-election has just now been called.  Thanks.

Done!

Thanks.  

Ken Burch Ken Burch's picture

BTW, Paul Manly didn't switch for THIS by-election.  He was the Green candidate in the same riding in 2015-taking a respectabatle 19.8% of the vote-after Mulcair barred him from seeking the NDP nomination there due to his active solidarity with Palestine and his protest against the arrest of his father, a former NDP MP, simply for participating in the aid flotilla from Turkey in which IDF troops boarded the Mavi Marmara and killed nine people.

(corrected in response to post from brookmere).

brookmere

Ken Burch wrote:
after Mulcair removed him as the NDP candidate there due to his active solidarity with the people of Palestine-and especially due to his expression of said solidarity by participating in the aid flotilla from Turkey in which IDF troops boarded the Mavi Marmara and killed nine people.

More precisely he was kept from seeking the nomination. It was his father, former NDP MP Jim Manley, who was on the flotilla and Paul was excluded simply because he protested the treatment of his father by the Israeli authorities.

I'm surprised to see this by-election call, I thought the Liberals would just call it for the same date as the general election. A Conservative pickup would be bad news for both the NDP and Liberals. On the other hand a Green pickup would be bad news for just the NDP. An NDP hold would be status quo.

 

 

NorthReport
NorthReport

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Ken Burch Ken Burch's picture

brookmere wrote:

Ken Burch wrote:
and especially due to his expression of said solidarity by participating in the aid flotilla from Turkey in which IDF troops boarded the Mavi Marmara and killed nine people.

It was his father, former NDP MP Jim Manley, who was on the flotilla and Paul was kept from seeking the nomination simply because he protested the treatment of his father by the Israeli authorities.

I'm surprised to see this by-election call, I thought the Liberals would just call it for the same date as the general election. A Conservative pickup would be bad news for both the NDP and Liberals. On the other hand a Green pickup would be bad news for just the NDP. An NDP hold would be status quo.

 

 

You are right, and I will correct my post above.  Removing Paul as the NDP candidate was still an indefensibly arrogant choice by Mulcair, and it could have cost the Dippers the seat.  

swallow swallow's picture

The Liberal candidate, Michelle Corfield, is a well-known Indigenous activist. She is more likely to win a by-election than the alternative, a naitonal election about Trudeau or not. So a by-election call makes sense. 

A potential NDP candidate, Chief Bob Chamberlain, is VP of the Union of BC Indian Chiefs and carries a lot of weight. He's up against Sheila Malcolmsen's constituency assistant for the NDP nomination. If he runs, the Green candidate can only hurt the chances of him becoming MP, and I hope Manly would think about standing aside. 

https://www.straight.com/news/1218361/prime-minister-justin-trudeau-call...

bekayne

swallow wrote:

The Liberal candidate, Michelle Corfield, is a well-known Indigenous activist. She is more likely to win a by-election than the alternative, a naitonal election about Trudeau or not. So a by-election call makes sense. 

A potential NDP candidate, Chief Bob Chamberlain, is VP of the Union of BC Indian Chiefs and carries a lot of weight. He's up against Sheila Malcolmsen's constituency assistant for the NDP nomination. If he runs, the Green candidate can only hurt the chances of him becoming MP, and I hope Manly would think about standing aside. 

https://www.straight.com/news/1218361/prime-minister-justin-trudeau-call...

So the Green candidate should stand down? What about the other person running for the NDP nomination?

Pogo Pogo's picture

I think if you have something to say and can get 100 signatures you should go for it. FPTP is already too distructive to the discussion of the full range of ideas.

NorthReport

Great news for the BC NDP in the latest poll out today which should have an impact on the by-election as well

John Horgan has a lot to smile about these days!

Mighty Middle

338canada has a poll out showing the Green Party in the lead (sorry I don't know what their methodology is)

http://338canada.com/districts/59018e.htm

 

 

bekayne

Mighty Middle wrote:

338canada has a poll out showing the Green Party in the lead (sorry I don't know what their methodology is)

http://338canada.com/districts/59018e.htm

 

 

It's not a poll, it's a projection based on national and regional polling.

jerrym

brookmere wrote:

 

I'm surprised to see this by-election call, I thought the Liberals would just call it for the same date as the general election. A Conservative pickup would be bad news for both the NDP and Liberals. On the other hand a Green pickup would be bad news for just the NDP. An NDP hold would be status quo.

A Green victory might not hurt only the NDP. It could bleed support from the Liberals for those who currently support the Liberals on their so-called 'environmental' agenda that somehow includes buying pipelines and spending billions subsidizing the world's wealthiest industry in other ways. Currently some of these voters do not see the Greens as viable where they live, especially outside BC, where the Greens are already relatively strong. A victory in this riding could cause people to take a second look at the Greens and give them some more media coverage as the election approaches.

In addition, the Greens have led in 5 of the last 7 PEI provincial polls. Furthermore, the lead is growing with the Greens, at 38%, 11 points ahead of the third place 27% Liberals, who fallen two points behind the Cons. (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_Canadian_federal_election). While most people pay little attention to tiny PEI, its election is on or before October 7th. Since the Liberals  are so far behind they are unlikely to call a quick election, so their election is likely going to be shortly ahead of the federal October 21st election, meaning the Greens are highly likely to get lots of coverage in the national press just before or during the federal election campaign. 

A surge in the vote for the federal Greens may increase their seat count but is likely to split the Liberal/NDP/Green vote three ways, leading to more seats being lost by these three parties than gained by the Greens, because the latter would have to make up so much ground in the vast majority of ridings. This could cost the Liberals many more seats than the NDP in four way races or five way races in Quebec (where the Greens got 13% in the February byelection there)  for the simple reason that the Liberals have many more seats to lose. In other words, Conservative victories in ridings the Liberals would have otherwise held, without such a surge in the Green vote, has the potential to cost the Liberals a majority government, and possibly even a minority government if the Liberal/NDP/Green vote split enables the Cons to capture many seats they would not otherwise take. 

 

 

 

jerrym

The Mainstreet poll released today shows the provincial BC NDP at 47.8% in popularity on Vancouver Island, while the BC Liberals are 15.9%, the Greens are at 22.9% and 10.3% for the BC Conservatives. It does not mean a federal NDP win is in the cards but augers well for the federal NDP. 

https://www.mainstreetresearch.ca/bc-ndp-widen-their-lead-over-bc-liberals/

 

NorthReport

Excellent candidate and  I forecast he will win the by-election as well

https://globalnews.ca/news/5114178/ndp-candidate-nanaimo-ladysmith-byelection/

NorthReport

Being so close to the general election the one and only reason why this by-election was called is because Trudeau had hoped the NDP could be defeated, as the only way the Liberals have the slightest possibility of winning the next general election is to crush the NDP, every which way they can. 

But it now looks like their little plan with the Greens is backfiring on them, as the NDP have chosen a very credible  Indigenous candidate to represent them. With the uproar over the SNC scandal, and the Liberal besmirching of Puglaas, Bob Chamberlin looks like a good bet to win handily.

https://www.straight.com/news/1221596/martyn-brown-canadas-sake-just-go-trudeau

Updated: March 31, 2019 - 9:33am

Now NDP candidate Bob Chamberlin addressing the crowd at the Vancouver Island Conference Centre on Saturday.

https://nanaimonewsnow.com/article/612254/indigenous-leader-bob-chamberlin-nominated-represent-ndp-nanaimo-ladysmith-byelection

 

 

NorthReport
brookmere

NorthReport wrote:
Being so close to the general election the one and only reason why this by-election was called is because Trudeau had hoped the NDP could be defeated, as the only way the Liberals have the slightest possibility of winning the next general election is to crush the NDP, every which way they can.

If the NDP loses this riding IMHO it would most likely be to the Conservatives. The Liberals don't want NDP ridings to fall to the Conservatives, and anyone who can count can see why. The Liberals certainly want NDP ridings to fall to them, of course, but I don't think they are deluded enough to see a pickup in this one at this time.

I thought myself they'd just call it for the general election date (by-elections can be as long as the government wants) and I'm a bit puzzled to see this. Perhaps they just want the NDP to spend its limited resources to hold a riding that it must win to be credible in BC in October. In 2015 the Liberals spent only $22K while the other parties spent over $130K.

 

 

NorthReport

Disagree

Were the Greens not polling 1st recently?

The Liberals were hoping the Greens would win but just not gonna happen as the NDP will win handily

bekayne

brookmere wrote:

I thought myself they'd just call it for the general election date (by-elections can be as long as the government wants) and I'm a bit puzzled to see this. 

https://www.elections.ca/content.aspx?section=med&document=jan0819&dir=pre&lang=e

  • On Monday, January 7, 2019, the Chief Electoral Officer, Stéphane Perrault, received official notice from the Speaker of the House of Commons that the seat for Nanaimo–Ladysmith (British Columbia) is vacant. A by-election will take place to fill the vacant seat.
  • The date of the by-election must be announced between January 18 and July 6, 2019. This announcement signals the start of the by-election period.

kropotkin1951 kropotkin1951's picture

Its official. Unlike Burnaby this riding is very white but it has a significant aboriginal population at 10%.

First Nations Chief Robert Chamberlin was selected as the NDP’s candidate for the 2019 byelection for Nanaimo – Ladysmith Saturday.

https://www.cheknews.ca/first-nations-chief-robert-chamberlin-selected-a...

NorthReport
bekayne

Thread drift, but what is the ICPG mentioned in the reply?

NorthReport

2015 election results

NDP - 33%

Libs - 24%

Cons - 23%

Grns - 20%

Who do you think will come 2nd this time after the NDP?

quizzical

Green.

 

kropotkin1951 kropotkin1951's picture

This by-election is going to be a three way race betwen the NDP, Conservatives and the Greens. I think the NDP has the ground game in this riding and they are emphasizing the right issues. Here is a precise of a campaign event in Nanaimo.

Speaking with Jagmeet Singh and NDP candidate Bob Chamberlin for Nanaimo-Ladysmith today about their commitment to build 1400 homes here in this riding and 500k across Canada to alleviate the stress of the housing crisis, which creates construction jobs. Using your health card instead of your credit card when you go to purchase medication. Finally, solving the growing emissions problem with a #GreenNewDeal signifying a rapid transition to renewable energy, while using the United Nations Declaration on the Rights of Indigenous People as a lens through which they view all of their commitments. Game Changer!

https://www.facebook.com/WaRDaNYo1980/videos/2302790009933091/UzpfSTc0OD...

kropotkin1951 kropotkin1951's picture

Here is a good local news article on the by-election.

He said the 500,000 units would be built over 10 years. Asked how it would fit into a federal budget, Singh pointed to the Liberals’ corporate tax breaks and pipeline purchase.

“They’re making certain choices that are not in line with our values. So we would make different choices, better choices,” Singh said. “We’d put people first and make sure we prioritize building these affordable homes that people need.”

He said the federal government can be a “meaningful partner” with the province of B.C., for example, which he said is ready to tackle the housing crisis.

“We’d look at a wide variety of partnerships, so this could be co-operative housing, non-market housing, working with non-profit organizations, working with cities that have available land but just need some funding, working with provinces that are willing to put up some money,” Singh said.

Asked if there are certain types of housing he’s hearing that people need, Chamberlin quipped, “yeah, affordable housing.” He said the crisis is impacting people looking to buy and rent and mentioned that it’s hard on young people and putting them in a challenging position to set out in their lives.

“If we can be the governing party for this country, we can ensure that we make the proper steps, the proper investments for affordable housing which will benefit the people obviously that are moving in, but it will benefit the market, as well, by freeing up other rental suites and so forth, so everybody can have a decent place to live, a decent place to call home and a decent place to have a future built upon,” Chamberlin said.

https://www.nanaimobulletin.com/news/ndp-say-affordable-housing-fundamen...

NorthReport

Jeesh!

Anti-immigration party is on the ballot in Nanaimo-Ladysmith

Opposing candidate says National Citizens Alliance’s participation ‘highly problematic’

https://www.nanaimobulletin.com/news/anti-immigration-party-is-on-the-ballot-in-nanaimo-ladysmith/

bekayne

NorthReport wrote:

Jeesh!

Anti-immigration party is on the ballot in Nanaimo-Ladysmith

Opposing candidate says National Citizens Alliance’s participation ‘highly problematic’

https://www.nanaimobulletin.com/news/anti-immigration-party-is-on-the-ballot-in-nanaimo-ladysmith/

And the candidate's a flat earther as well!

NCA leader Garvey said that “ethnic enclaves are multiplying and expanding” in Canada, which he said is creating division.

“We’re not against immigrants but we don’t support the replacement of our traditional people,” he said, specifying that by ‘traditional people’ he means First Nations, Métis, Inuit and European-Canadians. “This is unprecedented in world history that a government would actually replace its own people but that’s what’s going on if you look at the demographic data. A lot of Canadians are waking up to this. They’re very disturbed by it.”

These jokers ran in York-Simcoe and got 0.13%, well behind John Turmel.

NorthReport

First Nanaimo-Ladysmith all-candidates’ meeting is tomorrow

Six candidates expected to debate issues Thursday, April 25, at the Beban Park social centre

 

https://www.bclocalnews.com/news/first-nanaimo-ladysmith-all-candidates-meeting-is-tomorrow-2/

jerrym

In the following article the seven candidates describe their priorities. 

https://www.nanaimobulletin.com/news/nanaimo-ladysmith-byelection-candid...

 

NorthReport

NDP leading but close 3 way race

Can the Green Party take the Nanaimo—Ladysmith By-Election?

https://www.advancedsymbolics.com/can-the-green-party-take-the-nanaimo-ladysmith-by-election/

bekayne

NorthReport wrote:

NDP leading but close 3 way race

Can the Green Party take the Nanaimo—Ladysmith By-Election?

https://www.advancedsymbolics.com/can-the-green-party-take-the-nanaimo-ladysmith-by-election/

Is that a poll? What the hell is this?

https://www.advancedsymbolics.com/project/polly/

NorthReport

‘A full percentage point’

Ha! Ha!

It a commercial for the Greens obviously

kropotkin1951 kropotkin1951's picture

bekayne wrote:

NorthReport wrote:

NDP leading but close 3 way race

Can the Green Party take the Nanaimo—Ladysmith By-Election?

https://www.advancedsymbolics.com/can-the-green-party-take-the-nanaimo-ladysmith-by-election/

Is that a poll? What the hell is this?

https://www.advancedsymbolics.com/project/polly/

According to the article it is not a poll it is a Polly.

Polly—our patented AI— has been monitoring voter intent

Ken Burch Ken Burch's picture

So...could this lead to Liberal voters tactically voting Con just to prevent the NDP from holding the seat or the Greens from taking it?

bekayne

kropotkin1951 wrote:

According to the article it is not a poll it is a Polly.

Polly—our patented AI— has been monitoring voter intent

Is a Polly anything like a HAL? Will it eventually try to kill us?

Ken Burch Ken Burch's picture

bekayne wrote:

kropotkin1951 wrote:

According to the article it is not a poll it is a Polly.

Polly—our patented AI— has been monitoring voter intent

Is a Polly anything like a HAL? Will it eventually try to kill us?

And does it want a cracker?

JKR

LOL

Sean in Ottawa

Ken Burch wrote:

So...could this lead to Liberal voters tactically voting Con just to prevent the NDP from holding the seat or the Greens from taking it?

Why?

The Liberals remain more worried about the Conservatives than either the Greens or NDP when it comes to losing power in the fall. I would guess more Liberals would be more likely to move to the NDP or Greens although they may split between them.

Ken Burch Ken Burch's picture

Sean in Ottawa wrote:

Ken Burch wrote:

So...could this lead to Liberal voters tactically voting Con just to prevent the NDP from holding the seat or the Greens from taking it?

Why?

The Liberals remain more worried about the Conservatives than either the Greens or NDP when it comes to losing power in the fall. I would guess more Liberals would be more likely to move to the NDP or Greens although they may split between them.

The idea was that, if they could throw this by-election to the Cons, they could use that to establish the narrative that the only possible choices were the Cons or themselves, and then use that to once more start verbally bludgeoning everyone to their left with the "strategic voting" canard.

Pogo Pogo's picture

That is pretty a pretty complex narrative.  Lets assume that the Liberals get 5% and the NDP loses by 2%.  You are then going to spin that to say the only way to stop the Conservatives is to vote Liberal?

quizzical

would never work in Nanaimo. nothing strategic plot like happening.

kropotkin1951 kropotkin1951's picture

Most ridings on VI do not include a Liberal candidate with any shot of winning. Last election there was a Trudeau bump that increased the Liberal vote in Nanaimo but they were never going to win. The historic competition for the NDP is the Conservatives and has been since before the Harper years. The Greens could play spoiler and prevent an NDP win by letting the Conservatives win with not much more than a third of the vote. I think that the voters who voted for Trudeau's fake persona last time will either stay at home or vote for the NDP or Greens.

I think that if one looks at the provincial by-election it appears that many Green voters had a heart to heart with themselves in the voting booth and decided to ensure a progressive outcome.

Sean in Ottawa

Ken Burch wrote:

Sean in Ottawa wrote:

Ken Burch wrote:

So...could this lead to Liberal voters tactically voting Con just to prevent the NDP from holding the seat or the Greens from taking it?

Why?

The Liberals remain more worried about the Conservatives than either the Greens or NDP when it comes to losing power in the fall. I would guess more Liberals would be more likely to move to the NDP or Greens although they may split between them.

The idea was that, if they could throw this by-election to the Cons, they could use that to establish the narrative that the only possible choices were the Cons or themselves, and then use that to once more start verbally bludgeoning everyone to their left with the "strategic voting" canard.

This is where strategic voting is a crock. Som one Liberal strategically votes for the Conservative along the lines you suggest, another votes for the Greens as they think that is the most likely progressive voice, another thinks it is the NDP and votes accordingly, another votes Liberal assumign that the national numbers are also local. All could have stayed home.

I think strategic voting is often damaging to parties without the strength to counter it but it is usually ineffective becuase each person's information and logic is personal, as are their priorities. The same calculations above could be based on blocking another party -- one Liberal might want to block a Conservative and another a New Democrat and antoher the Green party. So in the end, how does that strategy work out?

This is why I say the best strategy is to vote for the candidate that you want to win. Whether they win or not, at least you were rowing in the direction you wanted instead of circles where you might even end up voting against your preference under the assumption that it had a lower chance and actually defeat it becuase it was doing better than you thought.

Ken Burch Ken Burch's picture

Sean in Ottawa wrote:

Ken Burch wrote:

Sean in Ottawa wrote:

Ken Burch wrote:

So...could this lead to Liberal voters tactically voting Con just to prevent the NDP from holding the seat or the Greens from taking it?

Why?

The Liberals remain more worried about the Conservatives than either the Greens or NDP when it comes to losing power in the fall. I would guess more Liberals would be more likely to move to the NDP or Greens although they may split between them.

The idea was that, if they could throw this by-election to the Cons, they could use that to establish the narrative that the only possible choices were the Cons or themselves, and then use that to once more start verbally bludgeoning everyone to their left with the "strategic voting" canard.

This is where strategic voting is a crock. Som one Liberal strategically votes for the Conservative along the lines you suggest, another votes for the Greens as they think that is the most likely progressive voice, another thinks it is the NDP and votes accordingly, another votes Liberal assumign that the national numbers are also local. All could have stayed home.

I think strategic voting is often damaging to parties without the strength to counter it but it is usually ineffective becuase each person's information and logic is personal, as are their priorities. The same calculations above could be based on blocking another party -- one Liberal might want to block a Conservative and another a New Democrat and antoher the Green party. So in the end, how does that strategy work out?

This is why I say the best strategy is to vote for the candidate that you want to win. Whether they win or not, at least you were rowing in the direction you wanted instead of circles where you might even end up voting against your preference under the assumption that it had a lower chance and actually defeat it becuase it was doing better than you thought.

OK.  And, to clarify-I wasn't defending "strategic voting".  I agree with you that it's a stupid idea.  All I was doing there was explaining how Liberal strategists might think about it.

NorthReport

Chief Bob Chamberlin: Protecting wild salmon takes more than cherry picking and photo ops

Faced with evidence that PRV may be wild Pacific salmon’s smallpox, the minister sits on his hands

 

https://www.straight.com/news/1228061/chief-bob-chamberlin-protecting-wild-salmon-takes-more-cherry-picking-and-photo-ops

NorthReport

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