NDP Leadership # 139

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NorthReport

Keep trying you have another half hour due to the excessive activity problem. 

jerrym

Quote:
Sean in Ottawa wrote:

 Sorry to see the depth of animosity here. There have been some severe words. I hope people think before they post enough to feel that they can live with those words next week no matter what happens.

 

I agree totally. Bookish Agrarian, I hope you stick around even though we do not agree on everything.

 

Mucker

As a Mulcair supporter, there is one scenario that I actually think forces Mulcair to consider dropping out.  If he gets less than 40% of the vote on the second ballot and Nash finishes fourth and throws her support behind Topp, I think Mulcair will have a tough sled, and might need to move behind Cullen.

infracaninophile infracaninophile's picture

Blasted online voting is NOT working. I've been trying nonstop for 74 minutes, servers not working.

Twitter is full of people with the same problem.

 

Some election!

 

Policywonk

Sean in Ottawa wrote:

There is a huge possibility that many skipped the first round assuming only one person would drop out and then they would vote. Instead almost half the field is gone. If that is the case then the field is wide open because we really have no idea who skipped.

 

If the likelihood were to be one province or another due to time zones then you could work it out but given that the voting for first ballot opened early enough last night I don't think that one part of the country is more likely than another to not vote in the first round.

 

Another variable is the people who put Saganash as first when those were all counted as spoiled. Those people will have their second count now and that will boost the numbers as well. I suspect that the second round will have a lot more people for three reasons:

1) the outcome is far from certain with a path to win for more than one candidate and most members across the country are aware of this.

2)Saganash supporters who hoped that voting for him would send an encouragement will now see their votes count when they did not before if they placed Saganash as first.

3) The people who did not vote in the first round presuming it did not mean much may now vote.

If I am right then any prediction would make no sense if another 10,000 or more people could vote coming in in any direction.

Pretty foolish not voting in the first round at all given how important first ballot/choice support seems to be, particularly if they have more of an opinion on who they wouldn't like to see win. I think many people will give up after three or four unsucessful attempts to vote.

KenS

I've got The House audio link on. Its interesting.

http://www.cbc.ca/thehouse/

Boom Boom Boom Boom's picture

Robert Chisholm: "Cullen supporters in Nova Scotia are looking longingly at Thomas Mulcair".

josh

Boom Boom wrote:

Robert Chisholm: "Cullen supporters in Nova Scotia are looking longingly at Thomas Mulcair".

I'm sure if Cullen doesn't make the final round, most of his supporters will go to Mulcair.

Wilf Day

Sean in Ottawa wrote:
given that the voting for first ballot opened early enough last night I don't think that one part of the country is more likely than another to not vote in the first round.

Many people read in the media that voting was today. Some netizens have other things to do on Friday evenings. And in BC they may have planned to vote this morning, too late for the first ballot.

Maybe. We'll find out when we see the second ballot turnout.

Otherwise, I'm still puzzled. Has anyone tweeted that they couldn't vote this morning for the first round?

 

Policywonk

Mucker wrote:

As a Mulcair supporter, there is one scenario that I actually think forces Mulcair to consider dropping out.  If he gets less than 40% of the vote on the second ballot and Nash finishes fourth and throws her support behind Topp, I think Mulcair will have a tough sled, and might need to move behind Cullen.

This is highly unlikely. If Cullen holds his vote and Mulcair is in the high thirties, I don't think Topp will have enough votes to win, as not all of Nash's vote will go to Topp. Mulcair is not Robinson.

Ripple

If anyone thinks Michelle is primarily responsible for the tone in these threads, you haven't been paying attention.  It's that "nice girl" thing again.

Policywonk

Wilf Day wrote:

Sean in Ottawa wrote:
given that the voting for first ballot opened early enough last night I don't think that one part of the country is more likely than another to not vote in the first round.

Many people read in the media that voting was today. Some netizens have other things to do on Friday evenings. And in BC they may have planned to vote this morning, too late for the first ballot.

Maybe. We'll find out when we see the second ballot turnout.

Otherwise, I'm still puzzled. Has anyone tweeted that they couldn't vote this morning for the first round?

 

I heard late last night that there were problems with people getting through in BC.

Mucker

Policywonk wrote:

Mucker wrote:

As a Mulcair supporter, there is one scenario that I actually think forces Mulcair to consider dropping out.  If he gets less than 40% of the vote on the second ballot and Nash finishes fourth and throws her support behind Topp, I think Mulcair will have a tough sled, and might need to move behind Cullen.

This is highly unlikely. If Cullen holds his vote and Mulcair is in the high thirties, I don't think Topp will have enough votes to win, as not all of Nash's vote will go to Topp. Mulcair is not Robinson.

You might be right, and I hope you are.

RevolutionPlease RevolutionPlease's picture

Site tells me voting is closed. I tried non-stop from 11am est.

Boom Boom Boom Boom's picture

Yeah, I should have written it was the Topp 'camp' urging Peggy to drop out and move to Topp. And she spoke her mind. Smile

Idealistic Prag... Idealistic Pragmatist's picture

KenS wrote:

I've got The House audio link on. Its interesting.

">http://www.cbc.ca/thehouse/

Interesting enough to brave the show's new host? Undecided

KenS

It wont be "most" Cullen supporters who go to Mulcair if he drops off. I think "majority" is a safe bet. But beyond that, I wouldnt hazard a guess.

Policywonk

RevolutionPlease wrote:
Site tells me voting is closed. I tried non-stop from 11am est.

They extended it to 12:45 I thought.

Mucker

Pat Martin essentially endorsing the Mulcair / Cullen "side" of the ballot.  Suggesting that doing the "same thing" (Topp / Nash) is less likely to be successful in forming government.

josh

Mulcair will be on the final ballot. The only question is whether he faces Topp or Cullen.

socialdemocrati...

Quote:
First Convention Ballot

Opens: 
Closes: 

March 23 2012 - 17:00 PM
March 24 2012 - 09:00 AM

HAS VOTED

Second Convention Ballot

Opens: 
Closes: 

March 24 2012 - 11:00 AM
March 24 2012 - 12:15 PM

CLOSED

:(

josh

Mucker wrote:

Pat Martin essentially endorsing the Mulcair / Cullen "side" of the ballot.  Suggesting that doing the "same thing" (Topp / Nash) is less likely to be successful in forming government.

Biggest non-surprise of the day.

Policywonk

KenS wrote:

It wont be "most" Cullen supporters who go to Mulcair if he drops off. I think "majority" is a safe bet. But beyond that, I wouldnt hazard a guess.

Isn't most the same as a majority? I think you are saying it will be a majority but not an overwhelming majority.

JKR

Wilf Day wrote:

At last, vote registered.

Since no thread on Babble should be without an insight on electoral systems, here goes...

On this day it seems like preferential voting is outperforming FPTP.

KenS

RP- that must be wrong that voting is closed. Keep trying.

infracaninophile infracaninophile's picture

Voting was extended, but the site is down. You get a message saying, sorry, try again later.

 

Sean in Ottawa

I don't think Michelle has raised the temperature in these threads-- the Mulcair anti-Mulcair temperature-- on both sides has been pretty hot. I just hope people will realize we are better off in the same party regardless of the result and watch how much damage they do.

 

quizzical

E1 who is voting today especially from BC, try using a web browser other than IE  and maybe spread the word....as I stated I tried to vote yesterday using IE and no matter what it would not let me through to vote.

RevolutionPlease RevolutionPlease's picture

First Convention Ballot
Opens:
Closes:
March 23 2012 - 17:00 PM
March 24 2012 - 09:00 AM
HAS VOTED
Second Convention Ballot
Opens:
Closes:
March 24 2012 - 11:00 AM
March 24 2012 - 12:15 PM
CLOSED

sdm, guess we hope for a 3rd ballot.

KenS

My guess is that voting will be extended again then.

And yes- Internet Explorer would probably make it harder. Unless radiorahim says otherwise.

Even if you have never used it, Firefox must be on your computer.

JKR

RevolutionPlease wrote:
Site tells me voting is closed. I tried non-stop from 11am est.

That's a travesty that has to be corrected.

socialdemocrati...

RevolutionPlease wrote:
First Convention Ballot Opens: Closes: March 23 2012 - 17:00 PM March 24 2012 - 09:00 AM HAS VOTED Second Convention Ballot Opens: Closes: March 24 2012 - 11:00 AM March 24 2012 - 12:15 PM CLOSED sdm, guess we hope for a 3rd ballot.

Yeah. I'm pretty angry and frustrated. I can handle the bickering. But this just reeks of disorganization. The fact that people can't vote says far more to me about our chances of winning in 2015 than anything the candidates said.

Catchfire Catchfire's picture

Ripple wrote:
If anyone thinks Michelle is primarily responsible for the tone in these threads, you haven't been paying attention.  It's that "nice girl" thing again.

Yup.

Anyway. Next?

jjuares

A lot of peole here are getting quite heated. I think that is simply because we care so much about the issues.  I have been on this site for only a short time. I believe the quality of the comments are very high. I hope we give each other the benefit of the doubt knowing that emotions are running very high right now. 

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