NDP Leadership 67

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Howard

ottawaobserver wrote:
I figure some of the "stable government to look after the economy" vote they got this past time is potentially up for grabs. If the Liberals would re-orient themselves in the direction Stockholm suggests, they could take back some of their seats on the margin like the Willowdales, North Vancouvers, 

...except, Vancouver North is turning out high profile NDP endorsers for Thomas Mulcair (i.e. Mayor Mussato, Councillor Keating).

This is part of the reason Mulcair is such a threat. He is able to appeal to well-heeled, well-educated, drifting Liberal crowd. In the GVRD at least, I think Mulcair's political experience (as a Liberal) and environmental plank is key to this appeal. (I think and I think Mussato and Keating also think) Mulcair is able to attract BC Liberals with composters.

If that is the case, the Liberals will cease to exist in Western Canada.

Howard

ottawaobserver wrote:

Howard wrote:

ottawaobserver wrote:

Howard, that UBC Voter Migration Matrix doesn't take the increase in seats into account. Also, it doesn't take into account any of the additional targeting factors I mentioned above. So, it will yield basically the same set of seats, give or take, as Wilf came up with, which is not enough.

But, thanks for the link - I didn't know it was out yet.

Yes and no. It will yield seats based on how big the % gap is between the NDP and first place. It will yield those seats on the basis of how you think votes will move around (i.e. from what party to what party). Otherwise I agree.

But again, Liberal vote in many ridings last time was based on the presumption that they were the alternative, or in fact on their own incumbency. What we've seen from ridings where the former Liberal MP defeated in 2008 came back to run again in 2011, is that they couldn't keep their vote (e.g., against Malcolm Allen in Welland). So, taking the 2011 Liberal vote as a starting point in many ridings is already taking an inflated figure, relative to their overall popular vote intention. Wascana is the case in point in Saskatchewan. When Goodale steps down, the Liberal vote in that riding will almost certainly revert to the provincial average.

Or not...

The people in Wascana, Winnipeg South, Edmonton Centre etc are those wealthy professionals Stockholm says will always vote Liberal Wink

Can't have it both ways. So what will it be? Will these folks vote for the NDP or are they "irredeemable"?

Wilf Day

Howard wrote:

ottawaobserver wrote:

Howard, that UBC Voter Migration Matrix doesn't take the increase in seats into account. Also, it doesn't take into account any of the additional targeting factors I mentioned above.

Yes and no. It will yield seats based on how big the % gap is between the NDP and first place. It will yield those seats on the basis of how you think votes will move around (i.e. from what party to what party). Otherwise I agree.

And from Non-voter to party, and from party to Non-voter; sometimes the biggest shifts.

ottawaobserver wrote:

So there is some hope for Conservative-to-NDP switching, or at least sufficient Conservative disillusionment to keep some of them at home.

Some Conservatives are too loyal, even when disillusioned, to do anything but stay home; which they consider a vary daring act.

ottawaobserver

Gee, Howard, I was just enjoying that conversation and you get back into the leadership one-up-personship again.

Not all professionals will only vote Liberal. Lots of professionals vote for Paul Dewar in Ottawa Centre. I would imagine the same goes for Peggy Nash in Parkdale-High Park. I wasn't trying to have it both ways. I very clearly said that there were some ridings in which the professionals would NOT vote NDP.

One of the problems I have with the presumed appeal of Mulcair to his fanboys on this board is that they think North Vancouver is  a bigger target than some of the seats we would sacrifice with someone who has less appeal to working folks.

Anyways, no longer interested in continuing this with you.

Howard

Wilf Day wrote:

And from Non-voter to party, and from party to Non-voter; sometimes the biggest shifts.

Meh, you can build this in to the weights you apply to the voter shifts, including dumping a bunch of votes into the independent column to represent the voters that stay at home.

Howard

ottawaobserver wrote:

Gee, Howard, I was just enjoying that conversation and you get back into the leadership one-up-personship again.

Lol. My apologies. I guess you could say I'm a highly opinionated person, even if my opinions are subject to change Laughing

Howard

For those interested in continuing the discussion, I don't think it makes sense for vote of one type to vote one way in one riding and vote another way in another riding without any explanation.

That was Layton's premise about progressive voters in Québec. Layton's idea was the progressive voters in Québec looked sufficiently like the progressive voters in Ontario that he just had to figure out the way to bridge the gap between the two. Part of Layton's legacy was actually pulling it off.

I don't think the voters of North Vancouver, Wascana, Edmonton Centre, Winnipeg South are a write-off. Those areas may not be the NDP's top targets but they are not write-offs either. The Liberals have held all of those seats, and only hold Wascana now. I feel like they qualify for consideration given they are seats where the Liberals decreasingly stand in the way of an NDP victory. These seats are favourites of the strategic vote crowd, "vote Liberal because only Liberals can win", well when the shoe is on the other foot and I want to see if the NDP can move in the direction of "sealing the deal" just like they did in Edmonton Strathcona. It takes a some serious consideration of what the gaps are between these voters and the NDP, but like Québec, I don't think all of them are unbridgeable.

Winston

Malcolm wrote:

There are 308 seats.  There will be 338 seats.  We'll need to run effective campaigns in 338 seats.  Unlike a US presidential election, we won't win "states," we'll win constituencies.

We don't target (or write off) provinces.  We establish effective campaigns in 338 seats (some for immediate victory and some for party building) and we designate certain seats in every region and every province for extra resources.

Exactly, Malcolm!  We are in violent agreement!  No one is talking about writing off ANY provinces!

ottawaobserver

The difference is that some of those ridings have a demographic mix and some are monolithic. In the former category you will usually find ridings that have voted NDP provincially. With the exception of one corner of North Van, that's not ever been the case.

Wilf Day

Howard wrote:

Wilf Day wrote:

And from Non-voter to party, and from party to Non-voter; sometimes the biggest shifts.

Meh, you can build this in to the weights you apply to the voter shifts, including dumping a bunch of votes into the independent column to represent the voters that stay at home.

Not necessary. The point I was making is, this matrix actually has a line for Non-Voters, unlike some projectors. So one should make use of it.

http://esm.ubc.ca/CA15/forecast.php

ottawaobserver

Agree with Wilf. Those are the kinds of movements that actually explained a lot of the seat turnovers in the last couple of elections, more than shifts between parties.

Winston

Howard wrote:

Or not...

The people in Wascana, Winnipeg South, Edmonton Centre etc are those wealthy professionals Stockholm says will always vote Liberal Wink

Can't have it both ways. So what will it be? Will these folks vote for the NDP or are they "irredeemable"?

Many of them vote NDP provincially - a lot of our provincial cabinet comes from those areas in Wpg-South, Wpg-South-Centre.  Those are ridings we have to carry to win.  I am also thinking here of all of the ridings in Peel and York, etc around Toronto, as well as the lower mainland areas the BCNDP needs to carry to win a provincial election.  They can and will vote NDP, but only if the Liberals are NOT an option.  If the Liberals still have a pulse, then the best we can hope for is splitting them down the middle and letting the Tories win.  In other words, we have to play the (odious, in my view) strategic voting card to carry them.  Do the ends (getting rid of Harper) justify the means (strategically voting for the NDP) - I think we can make that case.

NorthReport

With the Liberals only managing to win less than 6% of the seats in Western Canada, and the Greens just over 1% of the seats in the last election, both those parties can be relegated to the perhaps nice folks but don't waste your vote category.  Concerning North Vancouver it would be a long shot to say the least. A lot of West Van folks (read Con voters) have sold their multi-million dollar homes and have relocated to the North Vancouver Lonsdale condos.

And by-the-way, if you want to connect the dots, Heather Harrison lives in North Van, Darrell Musatto is the Major of the City of North Vancouver, and Craig Keating is presently a Councillor for the City of North Vancouver, and I believe will be the BC NDP candidate for in North Vancouver - Lonsdale in the next provincial election.

Howard

Wilf Day wrote:
Howard wrote:

Wilf Day wrote:

And from Non-voter to party, and from party to Non-voter; sometimes the biggest shifts.

Meh, you can build this in to the weights you apply to the voter shifts, including dumping a bunch of votes into the independent column to represent the voters that stay at home.

Not necessary. The point I was making is, this matrix actually has a line for Non-Voters, unlike some projectors. So one should make use of it.

">http://esm.ubc.ca/CA15/forecast.php

Oops! I missed that. Thanks for pointing it out. Embarassed

Howard

NorthReport wrote:

With the Liberals only managing to win less than 6% of the seats in Western Canada, and the Greens just over 1% of the seats in the last election, both those parties can be relegated to the perhaps nice folks but don't waste your vote category.  Concerning North Vancouver it would be a long shot to say the least. A lot of West Van folks (read Con voters) have sold their multi-million dollar homes and have relocated to the North Vancouver Lonsdale condos.

And by-the-way, if you want to connect the dots, Heather Harrison lives in North Van, Darrell Musatto is the Major of the City of North Vancouver, and Craig Keating is presently a Councillor for the City of North Vancouver, and I believe will be the BC NDP candidate for in North Vancouver - Lonsdale in the next provincial election.

Interesting points! Thanks NorthReport!

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