NDP Leadership #93

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NorthReport
NDP Leadership #93

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NorthReport

I think DSloth summed it up best. Dewar is trying to change the channel after his poor showing yesterday.

NorthReport

It would not surprise me to see Ashton end up ahead of Dewar bwefore this is all over.

 

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/ottawa-notebook/mulcair-on-...

mark_alfred

Jack Layton's mother has endorsed Brian Topp:

Globe article wrote:

the Topp campaign scored an emotional boost with an endorsement from Jack Layton’s mother.

Doris Layton threw her support behind Mr. Topp, saying she feels secure that under his leadership “the NDP will definitely follow Jack’s path – a path that will lead the NDP to form government in 2015.”

“I support Brian Topp because he is very much on Jack's wave length,” Mrs. Layton said in a statement released Monday. “Jack and Brian worked closely together through the years. They can almost finish each other sentences.”

link

NorthReport

Let's look at this poll again. If it's accurate which I doubt, it is a devastating blow to the Topp campaign.

The results of the poll have been weighted to accurately reflect the current (February 2nd) NDP membership numbers in every province and territory.

RESULTS:

First choice (decided voters):

Thomas Mulcair 25.5%
Peggy Nash 16.8%
Paul Dewar 15.1%
Nathan Cullen 12.8%
Brian Topp 12.7%
Niki Ashton 9.5%
Martin Singh 4.1%
Romeo Saganash 3.6%

2nd choice (decided voters):

Paul Dewar 21.2%
Peggy Nash 19.4%
Thomas Mulcair 16.7%
Nathan Cullen 14.4%
Brian Topp 12.4%
Niki Ashton 10.7%
Romeo Saganash 3.6%
Martin Singh 1.8%

 

NorthReport

Looks like Topp is trying to change the bad news channel as well here.

DSloth

NorthReport wrote:

Souns like Topp is trying to change the channel as well here.

To be fair I think Layton's mother endorsement broke before the Dewar announcement. Establishment support is really the only card Topp has to play.

Not looking forward to the tortured logic by which Eric Grenier assigns Layton's mother an endorsement point value. 

NorthReport
NorthReport

Which leadership candidate will be next to favour with a "how well their candidate is doing" poll?   LOL

And the msp are printing it out word for word. This repesents the concentration of the media that we have all been opposed to, where virtually no independent research is done. It is just propaganda that they use to fill the space around their ads.

The msp must not have nurtured many contacts within the NDP

Thank goodness for rabble. 

NorthReport
KenS

A comment kicked back from the closed last thread:

I think it extremely unlikey that Dewar in the race hurts us in Quebec. Most people will do all their thinking and evaluating AFTER we choose and they get their look see.

Being upset about Dewar is only for junkies- and only Dipper junkies at that.

 

Lord Palmerston

I agree Ken, it would only hurt if Dewar ended up as leader.

nicky

Topp's camp is tweeting that his canvas shows he is at 28%

DSloth

If you caught Team Topp pushing back with their own "poll" numbers claiming they're leading the race witth 28%, you can be assured that number is effectively meaningless. They're just talking about the results of their phone bank which if you've ever done any canvassing you know is not in any sense a scientific poll nor is the purpose of a phone bank to accurately forecast support.

The Topp campaign has almost certainly conducted scientific polls of their own so it's a bit telling they didn't seek to push back with any of those (yet). 

Unionist

mark_alfred wrote:

Jack Layton's mother has endorsed Brian Topp:

I believe Jack's great-grandmother(s) would have endorsed Brian Topp as well. Tragically, the vagaries of life deprived them (and him) of that opportunity. All thinking Canadians should pay utmost attention to endorsements like these.

ETA:

Doris Layton wrote:
"They can almost finish each other sentences.”

That will no longer be possible once Bill C-10 receives royal assent.

 

NorthReport

LOL

nicky

Later today in an ebast to NDP members, we will provide further info on our poll. Including details on regional splits and raw data 

mark_alfred

Thanks to those who gave the updates on the most recent debate (I wasn't able to watch it myself).  Nothing surprised me much except Nash's response to Dewar's question about healthcare user fees in Quebec (again, if I'm making a mistake on this, let me know -- I didn't actually see the debate).

I believe the Canada Health Act says federal funding may be withheld (partially or wholly) if a province engages in user fees.  However, I recall hearing of some clinic in Quebec who challenged this at the Supreme Court of Canada and won, prompting Layton to argue against Paul Martin's promise of removing the notwithstanding clause from the Charter (IE, that there may be times when it's beneficial for the government to have this power).  So, if I'm remembering and interpreting this correctly, then perhaps Nash was just being honest in the declaration that it was her hope that a properly run economy would engender a willing cooperation with the provinces to not go the route of healthcare user fees, rather than simply saying she is against this.  I'm not sure though.  So, if anyone has any clarification, do let me know, because I am a bit confused by this.

socialdemocrati...

Lord Palmerston wrote:

I agree Ken, it would only hurt if Dewar ended up as leader.

Add my voice to that. Again, most people aren't paying that close attention. Maybe caught a few headlines.

It might not be urgent that Dewar drop out of the race, considering the lack of publicity. But if Robert Chisholm had the good sense and class to, then Paul should too, lest we have to get a restraining order keeping Paul 100km from the leadership spot.

If anyone wants to start a petition, or has any other ideas, let me know.

NorthReport

Dewar has as much right as any of the other candidates to be in the race. I just wish that Saganash did not have to drop out.

 

The NDP membership will make the appropriate decision on March 24th. 

DSloth

mark_alfred wrote:

Thanks to those who gave the updates on the most recent debate (I wasn't able to watch it myself).  Nothing surprised me much except Nash's response to Dewar's question about healthcare user fees in Quebec (again, if I'm making a mistake on this, let me know -- I didn't actually see the debate)

You weren't the only one to [url=http://www2.macleans.ca/2012/02/13/ndps-nash-caught-off-guard-on-user-fe...

Colby Cosh@Macleans wrote:
Sorry, do I have this right? Peggy Nash is running for the NDP leadership...to the right of the Chrétien government on health care? In Sunday's NDP debate, Paul Dewar asked Nash what she would do if the Quebec government introduced hospital user fees, as indeed it promised/threatened to do in its 2009 budget before eventually relenting. Nash's answer, translated by the Star: "We hope that we want our health care system to be public, but really it's a provincial jurisdiction [c'est une compétence provinciale], so it's the decision of Quebecers."

Some accounts of the debate overlooked this gotcha move by Dewar, but Nash's answer could not have been more surprising if she had opened her mouth and ten thousand butterflies had come fluttering out. Nash, widely perceived to be at a disadvantage in Quebec against opponents who call the place home, was certainly motivated by hyperconsciousness of Quebec's constitutional sensitivities. Her answer, however, would seem to open the door to facility fees in provinces that were actually penalized between 1992 and 2004 for allowing private free-standing clinics to impose them (in some cases while billing the government for the physician services). Alberta had $3.6 million in transfers withheld; Manitoba, $2.4 million; B.C., $2.2 million; Nova Scotia, $372,000; and Newfoundland $284,000.

Among the items that have normally been deemed provincial territory is the definition of "medical necessity" under the Canada Health Act. The CHA provides no core list of medically necessary services, and coverage varies from province to province; but at about the time the provinces were playing chicken with Ottawa and losing, the Alberta government came under fairly significant pressure to defund abortions. It was informed pretty sharply by federal Health Minister Diane Marleau that abortion was definitely always "medically necessary" and that this was NOT a decision to be left to Albertans. One wonders whether Prime Minister Peggy Nash would say the same thing to a province that tried to defund abortion now. Alberta probably isn't a candidate anymore, but Prince Edward Island seems to find them pretty distasteful. C'est une compétence provinciale?

Hopefully this puts some pressure on the Nash campaign to issue a clarification.

 

NorthReport

The NDP will get some coverage now - the msp think they have an issue they can tar the NDP with:

http://www2.macleans.ca/2012/02/13/the-ndp-and-user-fees/

NorthReport
Boom Boom Boom Boom's picture

Lord Palmerston wrote:

I agree Ken, it would only hurt if Dewar ended up as leader.

Yeah, but isn't that the point? If Dewar wins, the party is screwed. Isn't that enough reason to ask him to drop out now?

Caissa

Every candidate has the right to run. It is up to the membership as a whole to decide if they will be "screwed" under a given leader.

wage zombie

If people are friendly enough to Dewar that he could possibly win on the last ballot, then I think any push-him-out-now campaign would not have a constructive effect on the campaign.

I also believe that Dewar has as much right as any candidate to stay in the race.  And we have the right to make all the snarky potshots as we want towards the candidate who clearly does not meet the minimum qualifications for the job.

Dewar's French during the debate was terrible.  "Peggy Nash, what you want do of medical user fees by Quebec government?  What policy you support?  All about us want to know your alignment."  This is the about the equivalent of what he can manage.

mark_alfred

I think the argument against Dewar running (subpar French) is as false as the argument against Topp/Singh (lacking a seat) or Mulcair (former Liberal) running.  They're all NDP members, so they all can run.  I'm sure that Dewar will continue to improve, just like Layton's French did.

On another issue regarding Dewar, from the second debate, I recall he said that his platform was completely costed out by some economist, when challenged about it by Singh (specifically regarding healthcare).  But when I checked on his website, I couldn't see any evidence of this.  It seemed more a collection of feel-good points to me, actually, then anything that took costs into account.

mark_alfred

wage zombie wrote:

Dewar's French during the debate was terrible.  "Peggy Nash, what you want do of medical user fees by Quebec government?  What policy you support?  All about us want to know your alignment."  This is the about the equivalent of what he can manage.

That's a bit sobering.

Boom Boom Boom Boom's picture

NO ONE is disputing that anyone can run for the NDP leadership. My point is that Dewar must know his French is atrocious, and surely he must be bright enough to relaize that if he wins, then the NDP could lose Quebec. If he is still running for the NDP leadership knowing full well that his French is atrocious, then he - and anyone else not fully bilingual and running for the leadership - deserves every negative epithet people may choose to throw at them.

NorthReport

http://www.winnipegfreepress.com/special/census2011/Odds-and-sods-from-t...

NDP MP and leadership contender Paul Dewar today released results from a poll his campaign conducted.

First choice (decided voters):

Thomas Mulcair 25.5%
Peggy Nash 16.8%
Paul Dewar 15.1%
Nathan Cullen 12.8%
Brian Topp 12.7%
Nikki Ashton 9.5%
Martin Singh 4.1%
Romeo Saganash 3.6%

Saganash dropped out of the race last week. He didn’t throw his support to anyone but didn’t have very many first ballot votes according to this poll, so it won’t make a huge difference where his supporters move.

That Mulcair is leading is not that surprising. He is easily the most recognizable of all the candidates, particularly in Quebec. Some think he is the best choice because he is the most centrist and can continue to push the Liberals out of their traditional territory. He is also the only Quebec MP left in the race and some see him as the only way the NDP will hold onto to its support in Quebec in the next election.

But there is also an anyone but Mulcair movement, because some would rather any one of the other six candidates win over Mulcair. They think he is too centrist, too divisive, too angry, too something.

That Brian Topp is so far down the list is a bit more surprising. There are some who have said for awhile that Topp was no longer in the top four of candidates and this seems to prove it. Interesting because when Topp entered the race last September he was supposed to be unbeatable. He was first into the race. He started raising money and campaigning almost a month before Mulcair. With big endorsements from Roy Romanow and Ed Broadbent he seemed to be hard to beat. He raised more money than anyone else prior to Christmas. But if this poll is accurate Topp isn’t really in it at all anymore.

If the poll is accurate nobody is going to win on the first ballot. Not surprising when there are that many candidates in the race. So it’s just as important who people want for their second choice.

2nd choice (decided voters):

Paul Dewar 21.2%
Peggy Nash 19.4%
Thomas Mulcair 16.7%
Nathan Cullen 14.4%
Brian Topp 12.4%
Nikki Ashton 10.7%
Romeo Saganash 3.6%
Martin Singh 1.8%

The Dewar camp is not saying where the second ballot choices are coming from. ie: Dewar is the second choice of 21.2 per cent of NDP members. But if all those people are also supporters of Nash and Mulcair it won’t change his second ballot results much because well, they are going to make it the second ballot and almost certainly third, fourth and even fifth ballots as well, if they are required.

The front runners need to convince those who support Cullen, Topp, Ashton and Singh to move their way as their preferred choices drop of the ballot in subsequent votes. (The NDP rules stipulate the last place finisher or all candidates who receive less than one per cent of a vote will drop off each round. If this poll is accurate Singh would drop off first.)

Because the Dewar camp isn’t saying where the second choices are coming from, it’s impossible to really know who benefits from them. They obviously released this poll hoping to give Dewar’s campaign some momentum and prove he’s playing in the big leagues.

They also won’t release the provincial or regional breakdowns so it’s impossible to know where the support is coming from.

 

Hunky_Monkey

Not a false argument, mark. Being fluent in both official languages is a requirement. I don't care if Dewar walked on water... if you only speak one of Canada's official languages you shouldn't be running to be leader of the opposition or prime minister. He has no business running. Simple as that.

I think it quite arrogant of him to think he can become leader with such poor French... as if the "rules" don't apply to him.

oldgoat

Yeah, I agree with that.  It's not that he can't run, hell, I can run.  I'd be horrible.  But he shouldn't run.  The reality is that a leader of any political party needs to be passingly fluent in both official languages.  I'm not even sure if Cullen is passingly fluent, but he's way ahead of Dewar. 

JeffWells

Looking at these numbers again, Mulcair still sits in an enviable position. His first ballot support is lower than I'd have expected, but his second ballot support is stronger: greater than Cullen and Topp and not far back of Dewar and Nash. This perhaps suggests stronger growth potential through the ballots than we might have expected.

Boom Boom Boom Boom's picture

Hunky_Monkey wrote:
I think it quite arrogant of him to think he can become leader with such poor French... as if the "rules" don't apply to him.

 

Well said.

Stockholm

I think the "anyone but Mulcair" sentiment only really exists among a few people in "the bubble" - I am not convinced that exists among the broader membership.

mark_alfred

Peggy Nash got an endorsement from Élaine Michaud, the MP for the riding of Portneuf-Jacques-Cartier in Québec.

Boom Boom Boom Boom's picture

oldgoat wrote:

Yeah, I agree with that.  It's not that he can't run, hell, I can run.  I'd be horrible. 

Same here. I've never run for public office as I am both hearing and speech disabled, and am not fluently bilingual - despite having taken French at community college level.

wage zombie

I is best choice for leader.  I govern you real good.  Vote for me.

I can has ndp leader.

Boom Boom Boom Boom's picture

LaughingLaughingLaughingLaughing

oldgoat

I'll say one thing though, if there's ever a Paul Dewar answers babbler's question's event, I sure ain't moderating it.

Boom Boom Boom Boom's picture

Almost blew Root Beer through my nose at that, Old Goat!!!LaughingLaughingLaughingLaughing

Hunky_Monkey

Stockholm wrote:

I think the "anyone but Mulcair" sentiment only really exists among a few people in "the bubble" - I am not convinced that exists among the broader membership.

Don't you mean inside "the babble"? :D

Lord Palmerston

I think Mulcair will end up taking it in the end.  And I don't see much difference between the NDP led by Mulcair and the Liberal Party led by Bob Rae.  In fact, their critiques of the party are almost identical.  

Hunky_Monkey

Boom Boom wrote:

oldgoat wrote:

Yeah, I agree with that.  It's not that he can't run, hell, I can run.  I'd be horrible. 

Same here. I've never run for public office as I am both hearing and speech disabled, and am not fluently bilingual - despite having taken French at community college level.

Boom Boom... remember Gary Malkowski from Ontario? :)

wage zombie

Lord Palmerston wrote:

I think Mulcair will end up taking it in the end.  And I don't see much difference between the NDP led by Mulcair and the Liberal Party led by Bob Rae.  In fact, their critiques of the party are almost identical.  

I mosly agree, LP.  I figure at least a Mulcair govt will keep more promises than Chretien did.

Hunky_Monkey

Be interesting to hear from some babblers when Bob Rae starts going after Mulcair and the NDP...

Lord Palmerston

Of course Rae would "go after" a Mulcair-led NDP...doesn't mean there's much of an ideological difference between a "left" Liberal like Rae and a Blairite like Mulcair. 

DSloth

Lord Palmerston wrote:

I think Mulcair will end up taking it in the end.  And I don't see much difference between the NDP led by Mulcair and the Liberal Party led by Bob Rae.  In fact, their critiques of the party are almost identical.  

Mulcair will support the NDP platform and easily consolidate support in Quebec (thus making the NDP the only viable alternative to the Conservatives in the ROC).

Rae will support the Liberal platform and be knocked off in a coup by the Martin/Ignatieff wing of the party once they regroup.  Remeber it was also Rae's suggestion to extend the Afghanistan mission last summer, he's moved far to the right of the NDP in his quest for power. 

 

wage zombie

These babblers are just trying to have realistic expectations.  Maybe Rae as Lib leader would push Mulcair towards a bolder policy platform.

mark_alfred

Lord Palmerston wrote:

I think Mulcair will end up taking it in the end.  And I don't see much difference between the NDP led by Mulcair and the Liberal Party led by Bob Rae.  In fact, their critiques of the party are almost identical.  

If the NDP becomes a cheap copy of the Libs, then we'll lose.  My opinion is that Layton's direction of taking small but bold little steps toward social democracy (like opposing the war, opposing the lowering of corporate taxes, favouring coalitions) has gotten us to be the Official Opposition and to be the more trusted alternative to the the Conservatives than the Liberals are.  Why step back now?  Topp's vision of moving a little more forward toward progressive taxation is the next bold little step toward social democracy, I feel.  This will be a winner come next election, when we can contrast our vision of developing a better Canda with either Harper's or Rae's failed visions of the country.  Jack's mom knows best, and I suspect that if Jack were alive, he'd give Topp his endorsement too.

NorthReport

 

http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/politics/article/1130644--hebert-ndp-...

Indeed, if one were to rank the NDP candidates on the basis of charisma, Topp would be closer to the bottom of the pile than near the top.

With the membership drive coming to an end, the campaign is changing gears.

A poll released by the Dewar campaign team confirmed that this battle is unlikely to be resolved in a single ballot on March 24th.

Already in Quebec City there were rumours of a possible rapprochement between Martin Singh and the Mulcair camp.

There is also aggressive interest among the various camps for whatever support Roméo Saganash, who withdrew from the campaign last week, could redirect to one of the remaining candidates.

But the Dewar poll also suggests that Topp, who initially led the race for high-profile endorsements last fall, is failing to translate them into enough grassroots support. Among decided voters he is reported to have slipped to fifth place behind Mulcair, Nash, Dewar and Nathan Cullen. (Based on a smaller sample, the Topp campaign counters that he is at 28 per cent and leading).

Elder NDP statesmen such as Ed Broadbent and Roy Romanow signalled early on that they wanted Topp to succeed Layton. They may now be more ready to let the chips fall where they may than when they tried to preordain the campaign’s outcome six months ago. But if not, where do they go from here?

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