NDP leadership race 2

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Sean in Ottawa

Mighty Middle wrote:

Olivia Chow said her lack of french is the reason she is NOT putting her name forward in this leadership race

“Jack spent a lot of time building up the Quebec team and the caucus and the connection with the Québécois,” Ms. Chow said, “so I think it is really important to have someone who is a lot more fluent than what I can do.”

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/ex-union-leader-sid-ryan-co...

 

That is a bit of a bombshell for some. She has set a minimum standard thatmany will respect.

I assume whomever set the March date for the first debate did so knowing there were people about to declare -- otherwise that would have been not a good idea.

mark_alfred

Quote:

I assume whomever set the March date for the first debate did so knowing there were people about to declare -- otherwise that would have been not a good idea.

That makes sense.  October 29th is the deadline for when the leader must be confirmed, so if they still felt no one was ready, they could have waited longer to set the first debate date.  For the race, they have committed to a minimum of three debates (one English, one French, one on youth issues).  link

montrealer58 montrealer58's picture

mark_alfred wrote:

I have no problem with Sid Ryan.  He's passionate and honest, and is willing to admit mistakes he's made in the past.  So, I feel he's a decent guy.  But the current group who advocate for him on social media are the most obnoxious people I've ever had the misfortune of interacting with.

The thing about obnoxious social media people is that they wind up annoying the wrong person. Then this person does everything they can to defeat the leader of the obnoxious social media people. Not because there may be anything wrong with the leader, but because they can, and for the extreme sense of satisfaction felt after they have been defeated.

Left Turn Left Turn's picture

mark_alfred wrote:

I have no problem with Sid Ryan.  He's passionate and honest, and is willing to admit mistakes he's made in the past.  So, I feel he's a decent guy.  But the current group who advocate for him on social media are the most obnoxious people I've ever had the misfortune of interacting with.

You must not have met my friend Lawrence. He's been advocating for Sid Ryan, and I don't find him obnoxious in the least.

Mighty Middle

What would happen if both the NDP & Conservatives both elect leaders for their parties that are NOT Billigual.

With only three recorgnized parties in the House of Commons how would two non-billingual leaders face off against a billingual Justin Trudeau?

 

Stockholm

There is actually a pretty good chance that the Tories will pick a new leader who speaks little or no French. Apart from Maxime Bernier, their top tier contnders (O'Leary, Leitch, Raitt) speak virtually no French at all.

In the case of the NDP, with the possible exception of a potential fringe candidate like Ryan, all the people likely to run speak at least passable French. Charlie Angus's French may not be perfect but it is light years ahead of most of the Tory leadership contenders.

brookmere

Mighty Middle wrote:
Olivia Chow said her lack of french is the reason she is NOT putting her name forward in this leadership race

Well OK, but that's a lot easier than saying that after two recent high-profile drubbings in the polls she's not winning material.

kropotkin1951

brookmere wrote:

Mighty Middle wrote:

Olivia Chow said her lack of french is the reason she is NOT putting her name forward in this leadership race

Well OK, but that's a lot easier than saying that after two recent high-profile drubbings in the polls she's not winning material.

Laughing  Wink

 

Sean in Ottawa

Mighty Middle wrote:

What would happen if both the NDP & Conservatives both elect leaders for their parties that are NOT Billigual.

With only three recorgnized parties in the House of Commons how would two non-billingual leaders face off against a billingual Justin Trudeau?

 

BQ 2.0 ?

Bilingualism of the leader is only part of the picture-- Other parts are:

1) who is speaking for the party in French? Is this a senior person and do they have a connection and ability?

2) what are the policies Francophones and Quebec want to hear and is the leader in tune with understanding them

3) what level of effort and understanding of the importance of French is the leader demonstrating

All these four issues will be seen together. The bilingualism issue will be a bigger deal if the others are not in good shape.

Of course the leader being perfectly bilingual is a tremendous asset and I do not mean to minimize this.

Debater

Ruth Ellen Brosseau not running for NDP leadership

Wednesday, January 25th, 2017

Quote:
“No, not at all. After a bit of reflection and lots of discussion with my family and friends I have decided to stay on as the member of Parliament for Berthier-Maskinongé,” Brosseau told reporters Wednesday.

http://ipolitics.ca/2017/01/25/ruth-ellen-brosseau-not-running-for-ndp-l...

Sean in Ottawa

Debater wrote:

Ruth Ellen Brosseau not running for NDP leadership

Wednesday, January 25th, 2017

Quote:
“No, not at all. After a bit of reflection and lots of discussion with my family and friends I have decided to stay on as the member of Parliament for Berthier-Maskinongé,” Brosseau told reporters Wednesday.

http://ipolitics.ca/2017/01/25/ruth-ellen-brosseau-not-running-for-ndp-l...

Good this would only be damaging to her.

She needs some more time as MP before anything like this.

Stockholm

brookmere wrote:

Mighty Middle wrote:
Olivia Chow said her lack of french is the reason she is NOT putting her name forward in this leadership race

Well OK, but that's a lot easier than saying that after two recent high-profile drubbings in the polls she's not winning material.

She didn't actually say this was the one and only reason she wouldnt run. She said that she considered it a disqualifier right off the bat. I think Olivia Chow was simply putting out her view that anyone who speaks no French has no business running to be leader and that being bilingual is a MUST

brookmere

She didn't actually say this was the one and only reason she wouldnt run

The article says:

Lack of bilingualism is what is keeping Olivia Chow, the widow of Mr. Layton who was herself an MP for eight years, from putting her name forward. “Jack spent a lot of time building up the Quebec team and the caucus and the connection with the Québécois,” Ms. Chow said, “so I think it is really important to have someone who is a lot more fluent than what I can do.”

Now perhaps Ms. Chow then added, "Anyway, I wouldn't run even if I spoke French well", but that sounds improbable.

Geoff

Looks like Justin has been annointed the "Pipeline Prime Minister", with the blessing of the Rachel Notley. I wonder which of the rumoured candidates will be best able to square that circle.

Who will be most effective in explaining to Canadians that environmental protection and job creation aren't mutually exclusive?

josh

Probably Julian, since he used to be energy and natural resources critic.

kropotkin1951

Here is Charlie speaking on that issue. Around 6:40

I like Julian but I think that if the NDP wants to do well next election it must do well in Ontario. Angus is a respected parliamentarian and a known name in Ontario.

http://charlieangus.ndp.ca/videos?playlist_id=0&page=16&video_id=od3aNjl...

josh

Either one would be fine.  And a big improvement.

Stockholm

brookmere wrote:

She didn't actually say this was the one and only reason she wouldnt run

The article says:

Lack of bilingualism is what is keeping Olivia Chow, the widow of Mr. Layton who was herself an MP for eight years, from putting her name forward. “Jack spent a lot of time building up the Quebec team and the caucus and the connection with the Québécois,” Ms. Chow said, “so I think it is really important to have someone who is a lot more fluent than what I can do.”

Now perhaps Ms. Chow then added, "Anyway, I wouldn't run even if I spoke French well", but that sounds improbable.

It wouldn't be the first time that a newspaper does an extensive interview with someone and then they isolate one sentence out of context and make that the headline. I suppose that if Olovia Chow spoke perfect French she might have been a possible successor to Layton back in 2012 - but her lack of French that has always been an issue that disqualifies her before even considering anything else and she knows it. I think she is simply letting it be known that the next next leader of the party MUST BE BILINGUAL.

 

kropotkin1951

Jack learnt to speak passable French and his wife while in office at the same time did not. It is obvious she didn't consider it important enough and thus that disqualifies her. If she had worked on her French when Jack did she would be bilingual enough just as he was.

Stockholm

Jack Layton learned French growing up in Montreal so he had a strong base to build from in the first place. Olivia Chow immigrated to Toronto as a Cantonese speaking teenager and learned English. There was never any reason for her to put a high priority on learning French...and I get the impression that she is not all that proficient at leaning languages.

kropotkin1951

Stockholm wrote:

There was never any reason for her to put a high priority on learning French...and I get the impression that she is not all that proficient at leaning languages.

As the Leader's spouse she attended many events in Quebec. You think that was not a good enough reason to make it a high priority. Apparently you were right since Jack did have a big breakthrough in Quebec. However your logic underscores that the people of Quebec are not as doctrinaire on language as concerned people in Ontario are.

Stockholm

People care about the leaders of parties speaking their language not their spouses. Quebecers appreciated how Layton campaigned in French, spoke French on tout le monde en parle and debated in French. The extent to which his wife spoke French was 100% irrelevant. I also don't recall anyone caring about whether or not Laureen Harper spoke French.

When Ed Broadbent first became NDP leader he spoke no French...his wife Lucille was franco-Ontarian - Quebecers were not impressed.

Sean in Ottawa

kropotkin1951 wrote:

Stockholm wrote:

There was never any reason for her to put a high priority on learning French...and I get the impression that she is not all that proficient at leaning languages.

As the Leader's spouse she attended many events in Quebec. You think that was not a good enough reason to make it a high priority. Apparently you were right since Jack did have a big breakthrough in Quebec. However your logic underscores that the people of Quebec are not as doctrinaire on language as concerned people in Ontario are.

I think it is unfair to compare the ability of an English first language speaker to learn French, one exposed to it early on, with a Cantonese first language speaker. There is a lot more in common between the structure of English vs French. You would think that obvious.

I have known Chinese language speakers who learned French and some who tried and could not. It is a tough thing to do.

Mighty Middle

kropotkin1951 wrote:

As the Leader's spouse she attended many events in Quebec. You think that was not a good enough reason to make it a high priority.

I don't think Olivia spent any time in Quebec, If Jack had to do events in Quebec, it would have made more sense that he take Thomas Mulcair. Simply because Mulcair is known more in that province. And the two of them could get better coverage in the media than with Jack and Olivia. Back then nobody knew who Jack Layton was.

Reading Olivia book she says the party sent her to ridings with a big Chinese community, so they could take advantage of her speaking in her native tongue, Mandarian.

kropotkin1951

Sean in Ottawa wrote:

I think it is unfair to compare the ability of an English first language speaker to learn French, one exposed to it early on, with a Cantonese first language speaker. There is a lot more in common between the structure of English vs French. You would think that obvious.

I have known Chinese language speakers who learned French and some who tried and could not. It is a tough thing to do.

I know that when I tried to learn Mandarin I was extremely unsuccessful.

kropotkin1951

Mighty Middle wrote:

Reading Olivia book she says the party sent her to ridings with a big Chinese community, so they could take advantage of her speaking in her native tongue, Mandarian.

Mandarin and Cantonese are two very different languages much like English and French. Sending a Cantonese speaker to speak to Mandarin speakers would be ridiculous.

Mighty Middle

kropotkin1951 wrote:

Mandarin and Cantonese are two very different languages much like English and French. Sending a Cantonese speaker to speak to Mandarin speakers would be ridiculous.

My apologizes I thought her mother tongue was Mandarin. If it is Cantonese, then my mistake. Thanks for the clarification.

kropotkin1951

I think unlike her French skills her Mandarin skills got better. Jack learnt some Cantonese, I think as a sign of respect for his mother-in-law.

Sean in Ottawa

kropotkin1951 wrote:

Mighty Middle wrote:

Reading Olivia book she says the party sent her to ridings with a big Chinese community, so they could take advantage of her speaking in her native tongue, Mandarian.

Mandarin and Cantonese are two very different languages much like English and French. Sending a Cantonese speaker to speak to Mandarin speakers would be ridiculous.

Chow comes from Hong Kong, where you would expect her first language to be more likely Cantonese -- and certainly if it were not her first language, that she would speak it. I do not know enough about her family to know for sure. We do know she speaks both and has addressed Canadian Chinese communities in both Cantonese and Mandarin. It is not all that uncommon to speak both.

I certainly struggle in rudamentary Mandarin and I have an appreciation that the difference between Chinese languages and English and French is much greater than the difference between English and French. This is why comparing Chow's ability to speak French with an English native speaker is unfair.

ETA sorry cross posted with the last couple posts

CanadaApple

R.E.Wood wrote:

"Angus moves into second phase of possible NDP leadership campaign"

I don't see any actual numbers about him being in second in that article. Is he just getting that from his own polling? 

Stockholm

"Second phase" is not the same thing as being in "second place"

Sean in Ottawa

Stockholm wrote:

"Second phase" is not the same thing as being in "second place"

This is quite interesting. We do not see what we think we see but certain things and the brain fills in what it thinks is there -- this is how we get optical illusions. We also read words rather than letters and think we see soemtimes what we don't -- the reason proofreaders have to learn how to read slowly and letter by letter.

At a glance I saw this as well and thought it was "place" as well.

kropotkin1951

Stockholm wrote:

"Second phase" is not the same thing as being in "second place"

Well since there is only one officially declared candidate its hard to say anything.

Angus is asking for support for his campaign.  The $30,000 is a big pile of cash to start the process and thats before you start to campaign. I think that if NDP'ers want a good field they are going to have to send money to more than one candidate in the initial phases.

http://www.charlieangusnpd.ca/

Wilf Day

Yet another article on Guy Caron. His steady groundwork is attracting respect.

Quote:
(Translated) Father of two young children of 5 and 8, Mr. Caron wants to consolidate the legacy of Jack Layton if he becomes party leader. "The 2015 election and the setback we've had have made some people say maybe we should go back to that blessed time when the NDP was the conscience of Parliament, where we could just identify problems and denounce them. Jack, what he has let us do, is to see the limits of such an approach. Yes, we must have a conscience. But there is political reality. If we simply continue to denounce situations, we will never be able to correct them. We will leave it to Liberals and Conservatives to continue in that direction they have always borrowed. Jack Layton has shown us that it is good to have the ambition to take power." 

Mr. Caron already has an idea of ​​the main theme he wants to focus on during the race: the development of the social democratic economy.

"One of the big problems we have faced as a party in the last 30 or 40 years is that we have constantly let the Liberals and Conservatives define us on the economy, namely that we are the party of "tax and spend," that we know how to spend taxpayers' money. But it's much more than that, "said Mr. Caron, who is an economist.

"The economy has always been seen as the prerogative of the right and the milieu of finance, whereas this is not the case. Everyone is affected by the economy. "

"The definition of the economy, in the end, is the study of the distribution of limited resources in the face of infinite needs. It affects everyone. It is extremely important to be able to offer economic policies that take into account the common good of the entire population, "he added.

THE P'TIT GARS DE RIMOUSKI

In an interview, Guy Caron said that nothing predestined him to go into politics. Initially interested in medical studies, he switched to journalism before becoming interested in the economy.

"I had an interest in medicine. That's why I took pure science courses at CEGEP. But I have a friend who brought me to work on community radio and I got the sting of journalism. I decided to continue my studies in communications at the University of Ottawa, also to learn English. Rimouski is not necessarily the best place to learn English. So I became bilingual soon enough and worked for the university student newspaper. But I made a detour through student politics, which led me to take an interest in the economy very closely. I was president of the student federation in Ottawa and then the president of the Canadian federation in the years when there was the reform of the Chrétien government's social programs, "he said.

In 2002, friends of the student movement invited him to the launch of the campaign of an NDP leadership candidate: Jack Layton. He was seduced to the point of contributing to the writing of his speeches and communiqués in French for six months.

Then he pledged to lay the groundwork for the NDP in eastern Quebec and ran for the 2004, 2006 and 2008 elections. 

"I do not come from a very, very political family. I was not particularly interested in politics. [...] I never had the ambition to become a member of Parliament. Even on the night of the election in 2011, I did not think I would be a member of Parliament. I did not even have a sign. " 

"I went to Rimouski only to make the debates. But on election night I won by 5000 votes. The fact that I had presented myself three times before [2004, 2006, 2008], people already knew me.

He has a lot in his resume, at age 48. He was president of the University of Ottawa Student Federation for two terms, very unusual (1992-94). He was national president of the Canadian Federation of Students for two terms, unheard of (1994-96). He has also worked for the Canadian Race Relations Foundation, and then the Council of Canadians, where he was where he was a media relations officer, then the Campaigner on Canada-U.S. Relations, and then the Healthcare Campaigner. He is the author of Crossing the Line: A Citizens’ Inquiry on Canada-U.S. Relations (2005) and Best kept secret: Canada's health care competitive advantage. Along the way he got a Master’s in Economics from the University of Quebec in Montreal in 2001. Then he became a researcher and economist with the Communications, Energy and Paperworks Union of Canada (CEP).   

Once elected, in his maiden speech in 2011 he was very multi-partisan:

Quote:
One of the key promises on which I was elected was to create a round table for provincially and federally elected officials from the Lower St. Lawrence. In the Lower St. Lawrence region, we have three federal MPs: two New Democrats and one Bloc Québécois colleague. At the provincial level, we have four MNAs: three from the Parti Québécois and one from the Liberal Party. A round table is essential for ensuring that in a region like the Lower St. Lawrence, we are speaking with one voice when we need to present our claims or requests either in Quebec City or in Ottawa. This concerted effort is also essential in dealing with a major challenge in my riding and several other ridings, namely regional economic development. Regional economic development is essential for these regions. Unlike major centres, these regions do not necessarily have the density to allow the same type of economic development. Federal and provincial government assistance is needed to facilitate the development of essential projects and to help boost the economy.

Considering the current role of the federal government with its Canada Health Act—whose five principles or pillars were supported by the former Bloc leader in 2009—we think it is important to maintain the minimum standards derived from these five principles under the Canada Health Act. Accordingly, we support cash transfers.

 

In 2015 his vote went up (no boundary changes) to 19,374, from 18,360 in 2011.

Currently he is the NDP's Finance Critic, and as the MP closest to Atlantic Canada he is the spokesperson for Atlantic issues.

 

R.E.Wood

It's very interesting that he's setting out the main theme of his campaign already. Combined with his prior statements about launching said campaign after February 8, it looks like a foregone conclusion that he will indeed be running for leader. 

 

Wilf Day wrote:

Yet another article on Guy Caron. His steady groundwork is attracting respect.

Quote:
(Translated) 

Mr. Caron already has an idea of ​​the main theme he wants to focus on during the race: the development of the social democratic economy.

"One of the big problems we have faced as a party in the last 30 or 40 years is that we have constantly let the Liberals and Conservatives define us on the economy, namely that we are the party of "tax and spend," that we know how to spend taxpayers' money. But it's much more than that, "said Mr. Caron, who is an economist.

"The economy has always been seen as the prerogative of the right and the milieu of finance, whereas this is not the case. Everyone is affected by the economy. "

 

Mighty Middle

Nathan Cullen is so angry about what happened with Democratic Reform, I wouldn't be surprised if he changes his mind and runs for leader. He seems really worked up over the Liberal betrayal

Sean in Ottawa

I am not sure that this has filtered through yet to the public but the NDP I am sure got the message.

It is relevant again and it should not be written of. The leadership is no longer about a caretaker building leader but it is the choice for a leader who can contest the next election.

The NDP is weak but it is not sidelined anymore. Several Liberal decisions have restored the gap between the sapce the Liberals occupy and that of the NDP. The Liberals are also well on their way to restoring the reputation that they had in 2005.

This stuff takes a while to catch up but for experienced observers you can see it. The NDP leadership campaign has changed. This is no longer a race to be leader of a no-hope party wondering why it exists without any hope of that leader ever winning an election. This is a race to lead a party that has a very difficult uphill road to power but does have that road.

Now of course a mistake in the leadership race could send the party back down but you can smell the opportunity.

The people who came out with high ideals to vote Liberal have recieved a message as well. The Liberals will in the next election go back to scaring NDP voters becuase they are no longer a party to vote for but just a vehicle to vote against the Conservatives. This happened quickly.

And with the NDP having proven that it can rise further than people used to think possible, the blackmail of NDP voters, made possible only becuase the Liebrals were full of shit on electoral reform has a real chance of backfiring.

Geoff

Mighty Middle wrote:

Nathan Cullen is so angry about what happened with Democratic Reform, I wouldn't be surprised if he changes his mind and runs for leader. He seems really worked up over the Liberal betrayal

That was the first thought that came to my mind when I heard about the Liberal about-face. Cullen would be the standard-bearer for the moderate wing of the party, given that he was, at one time, proposing common Liberal-NDP candidates to defeat Harper.

It would certainly make for some interesting leadership debates. I wonder how he would do against someone like Charlie Angus, Niki Ashton or Guy Caron.

josh

Mighty Middle wrote:

Nathan Cullen is so angry about what happened with Democratic Reform, I wouldn't be surprised if he changes his mind and runs for leader. He seems really worked up over the Liberal betrayal

 

Hope not.

Sean in Ottawa

josh wrote:

Mighty Middle wrote:

Nathan Cullen is so angry about what happened with Democratic Reform, I wouldn't be surprised if he changes his mind and runs for leader. He seems really worked up over the Liberal betrayal

 

Hope not.

I would not see him running as a bad thing.

Him running might make the race address things that it really ought to address. We might see some distinction between candidates and others may be encouraged to run. I would not choose him for leader but I think the race could be better for him being a part of it. I think some left-right difference would be a good thing for the party to have in a leadership context becuae this is something we should discuss,

Geoff

Sean in Ottawa wrote:

josh wrote:

Mighty Middle wrote:

Nathan Cullen is so angry about what happened with Democratic Reform, I wouldn't be surprised if he changes his mind and runs for leader. He seems really worked up over the Liberal betrayal

 

Hope not.

I would not see him running as a bad thing.

Him running might make the race address things that it really ought to address. We might see some distinction between candidates and others may be encouraged to run. I would not choose him for leader but I think the race could be better for him being a part of it. I think some left-right difference would be a good thing for the party to have in a leadership context becuae this is something we should discuss,

Good point, Sean. A clear choice between left and right might force party members to think carefully about where the party should be heading. Do we continue the party's strategy to poach votes from the Liberals to become the party of the centre, or do we put more distance between us and JT's party in order to attract those progressive voters who are looking for something other than more of the same?

Sean in Ottawa

Geoff wrote:

Sean in Ottawa wrote:

josh wrote:

Mighty Middle wrote:

Nathan Cullen is so angry about what happened with Democratic Reform, I wouldn't be surprised if he changes his mind and runs for leader. He seems really worked up over the Liberal betrayal

 

Hope not.

I would not see him running as a bad thing.

Him running might make the race address things that it really ought to address. We might see some distinction between candidates and others may be encouraged to run. I would not choose him for leader but I think the race could be better for him being a part of it. I think some left-right difference would be a good thing for the party to have in a leadership context becuae this is something we should discuss,

Good point, Sean. A clear choice between left and right might force party members to think carefully about where the party should be heading. Do we continue the party's strategy to poach votes from the Liberals to become the party of the centre, or do we put more distance between us and JT's party in order to attract those progressive voters who are looking for something other than more of the same?

And that is the conversation I want to have -- I think it is known here that I am more of the seocnd camp but I welcome a candidate who will get us talking in those terms.

I could also welcome any candidate, to some degree, just to have a conversation at all.

Pondering

Sean in Ottawa wrote:
The NDP is weak but it is not sidelined anymore. Several Liberal decisions have restored the gap between the sapce the Liberals occupy and that of the NDP. The Liberals are also well on their way to restoring the reputation that they had in 2005.

That statement reminds me of statements made (not by you) when Trudeau's numbers were diving and the NDP soaring before the election. I recall reading about people discovering the "truth" about Trudeau, that he was shallow, and the "truth" about Mulcair, that he was experienced.

Sean in Ottawa wrote:

Now of course a mistake in the leadership race could send the party back down but you can smell the opportunity.

The people who came out with high ideals to vote Liberal have recieved a message as well. The Liberals will in the next election go back to scaring NDP voters becuase they are no longer a party to vote for but just a vehicle to vote against the Conservatives. This happened quickly.

 

The NDP had the opportunity for the past decade. It is the NDP that tried to use scare tactics in the last election. Trudeau is absolutely not going back there. To say that means you don't understand Trudeau's style at all. This electoral thing is a smaller kerfuffle than C 51 was.

Sean in Ottawa wrote:
And with the NDP having proven that it can rise further than people used to think possible, the blackmail of NDP voters, made possible only becuase the Liebrals were full of shit on electoral reform has a real chance of backfiring. 

Dreaming in technicolor. There was no blackmail of NDP voters. NDP voters represent no more than about 15% of voters. Conservatives seem to have about 25%. The Liberals about 10%. Everyone else is a swing voter. If what you are saying were true there would be a surge in NDP popularity right now even with Mulcair still as leader.

Between now and 2019 Trudeau will continue to refuse to go on the defensive. Notice he is ignoring all the attacks even though the press is all excited. He is staying on message because he knows most Canadians don't care about electoral reform. All he personally has said is that Canadians aren't interested and there is no consensus. He is leaving it to "sources" to talk about the risk of the far right rising so his messaging can remain positive. in 2018/19 infrastructure building will be going strong and he will again have a positive message. He will also have a long list of accomplishments to combat naysayers. He won't be put on the defensive. The risk to the NDP and Conservatives is they will come off as negative nellies. He has the immigrant vote sewn up.

Guy Caron sounds very interesting. I like his focus on the economy. It remains to be seen (for me) what he thinks of trade deals, the cornerstone of neoliberalism. If his position is the same as Mulcair's then he's a dud (to me). I doubt Trudeau can be beat in 2019 but if there is any chance at all it will have to be on a single big issue and the NDP would be wiser tactically to use 2019 to set themselves up for 2023.

montrealer58 montrealer58's picture

I don't think the electoral reform thing will be a significant issue by April of this year, let alone next election. It is already starting to die down on my Facebook page.

Sean in Ottawa

montrealer58 wrote:

I don't think the electoral reform thing will be a significant issue by April of this year, let alone next election. It is already starting to die down on my Facebook page.

There are people who consider it only when they hear about it and for them it is not an issue now but likely will be later.

There are also people for whom it matters very much. For them it will not die down. We really have no way of knowing how many there are of people like this. A poll cannot tell us unless it is an open ended question of what the important issues are etc. If they only are concerned when prompted then it will not be a big issue until someone makes it one.

All this said there is a very strong chance this can blow up again and be a significant issue. There are three ways this could happen:

1) Strategic voting: if strategic voting sites play a role in the next election, they will certainly remind voters about this broken promise. This entire and significant issue is built around the problem of FPTP. This is a potentially serious one given the clarity of the promise and the difficulty many voters have considering both negative options and preferred support.

2) Opposition party messaging: If the Liberals perform badly this is sure to come up and stick as the tide turns against the. If they perform well there is a greater likelihood that the Green and NDP opposition will pin more on making this an issue. In other words no matter what the situation is at the time opposition parties will want to make this a big deal. If the NDP decided to run campaign ads on the issue to keep their supporters from rewarding the Liberals this will come up significantly. I see no reason why they would not do this. While the Greens do not have as much reach in many parts of the country, I think you can bet on them making this an issue as much as they can. While the CPC are happy with this, it does not mean they will not use it to hurt the Liebrals and remind NDP voters why they should not gang up with the Liberals.

3) Liberal messaging to NDP voters: While it may matter less to voters leaning Liberal it may to those trying to decide and it may stall any effort by the Liberals to ask the NDP to "lend them their vote." In recent years electoral reform has been tied both by the NDP and the Liberals to that message when the Liberals raise it.

4) The media: Journalists from both right and left have been harsh in condemning the Liberals on this. It is likely even if the public forget, the media may remind them. During the election the media is desperate for daily stories and this is too obvious to miss.

It may also be the elephant in the room. The Liberals, in a tight election with the Conservatives, may choose to not go with the strategy to herd NDP voters out of a justified fear that this could attract attention to the issue, as I believe it would. The dynamic and result of the election could be different because of this. It is possible the Liberals have effectively neutralized their weapon of desperation against the NDP.

To that end the party popularity levels could decide. If the Liberals were way ahead then it is less likely to come up. The Liberals would see no need to raise the issue of strategic voting, there would be fewer grass roots strategic voting efforts, and the population would not fear the Conservatives. The NDP levels would determine how much of a threat the NDP actually is -- and the Greens for that matter

The last variable would be how extreme (scary) the Conservative candidate(s) are to centre left voters. If they go with a nasty candidate, as seems likely, they will remind the population of FPTP, false majorities and this broken promise.

All in all, I think there is more of a chance that this will blow up in the next election than it not blowing up. There are too many reasons and ways it can and too many with an interest in making that happen. This genie does not fit back in the bottle.

Liberals might think optimistically that they could avoid this being a significant issue. But for that to happen, two of the opposition parties woldl have to be totally incompetent and the media would have to not do its job. I would not bet on that. In the meantime the issue will die down and people will almost forget. When the campaign gets going they will be reminded.

Sean in Ottawa

Also I would say that politics in Canada is a little less interesting than US politics and that the Trump controversies can be expected to take the most interest, attention and energy for this year. Domestic issues will flare up but may not be sustained until we are closer to the election.

montrealer58 montrealer58's picture

Well, let's see by April. If it is only NDP partisans who are going on about the issue, we'll know it has gone the way of C-51...

Sean in Ottawa

montrealer58 wrote:

Well, let's see by April. If it is only NDP partisans who are going on about the issue, we'll know it has gone the way of C-51...

We would not see by April -- I think this will be quiet until the next election and could blow up then. Many people will not think about this until they are contemplating voting again. a lot of people do not even pay attention to news so many not hear about it until then. As well -- as I said they will be reminded then...

sherpa-finn

The political leverage of this issue will not be about electoral reform, per se. IMHO. 

However, it will usefully serve as one of the more flagrant examples of Liberal lies and broken promises to be cited and re-cited repeatedly.  So an important part of the re-branding of the Trudeau Gov't prior to the next election, along with the betrayals over marijuana, pipelines, C-51, etc.

Of course, having won on the "Be grateful I am not Stephen Harper!" bandwagon in 2015, one can only reasonably expect Trudeau to run on a "Be really grateful I am not Donald Trump" platform in 2019.  And it may well work.  

 

wage zombie

It would be great if we could connect the re-branding with the Chrétien/Martin years of blank cheque inaction until inevitably scandal ejected them?  Giving Trudeau another majority government would mean putting off making progressive gains, being satisfied to just tread water.

Chretien/Martin could have made some great gains, if they had really wanted to.  Kyoto would've had them decrease emissions by 25%, but instead emissions increased 25%.  When we do nothing about our problems, they get worse over time.

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