NDP Leadership Thread - Part 4

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ottawaobserver
NDP Leadership Thread - Part 4

Let's continue from here, shall we?

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Aristotleded24

ottawaobserver wrote:
How'd I do so far?

You forgot about Ruth Ellen Brosseau! ;)

Idealistic Prag... Idealistic Pragmatist's picture

I do think it's important to remember that we haven't heard a single peep out of Mulcair, so all we're going on to put him in the first category is media speculation and our own assumptions from watching party dynamics. That said, I'd certainly be very surprised if he didn't run.

ottawaobserver

Any time I've seen her at an NDP event, she gets mobbed, so you know ... ;-)

Paul Gross

Idealistic Pragmatist wrote:

I do think it's important to remember that we haven't heard a single peep out of Mulcair,

peep

 

 

Stockholm

ottawaobserver wrote:

Possibilities considered by one or more Babblers or pundits:

 * Jack Harris
 * Guy Caron
 * Romeo Saganash
 * Françoise Boivin
 * David Miller
 * Niki Ashton
 * Ryan Meili
 * Pat Atkinson
 * Lewis Cardinal
 * Nathan Cullen

Sentimental favourites of some Babblers, but who are considered unlikely:

 * Stephen Lewis
 * Avi Lewis
 * Naomi Klein
 * Libby Davies

How'd I do so far? [I've amended this post a few times to keep it comprehensive and grammatically sound.]

There has also been some media buzz about Olivia Chow - though I would pout her in that lower "sentimental favourite but unlikely to run" category. Then there is "person X". I heard Capstick muse about someone enter the race from outside politics or that Brian Topp might be a "stalking horse" for a 'player to be named later".

ottawaobserver

Oh yes, you're quite right about about Chow. Where was my head? Updating now, thanks.

Lou Arab Lou Arab's picture
Lou Arab Lou Arab's picture

Summary - he's still in mourning, still considering his options, and has to put 'funding and financing' in place.

Lou Arab Lou Arab's picture

Kady O'Malley calls it the shortest Mulcair scrum in history.

ottawaobserver

Effing CBC english didn't run it live. It was on RDI (channel 28 in Ottawa, for example), which proceeded to give far superior coverage to the story than the gossipy stylings of our english-language joke of a media.

Northern Shoveler Northern Shoveler's picture

Could we retire the word moderate.  The word has no definable meaning and is a subjective term based solely on the observers political biases. To me it says a left liberal by another name is still a liberal. 

 I suspect that all the afore mentioned politicians would hold views that are nuanced. For instance a NATO hawk might still have a a passion for human rights.  Are they a moderate or not?  Pretty hard to determine.  Some of the potential candidates might have voted to criminalize gay sex for teenagers but still hold other more left wing views on women's rights.  

Sarann

A cautionary tale.  I was a Blaikey supporter, being an old prairie Tommy Douglas social democrat, but I asked my local MP (an NDP of course) who he thought would be the best person to lead the party and he said Jack Layton.  He was right.  I think you have to work at close quarters with people to tell who has the best leadership qualities. All the media speculation and all the outside of party speculation is just nonsense.

Sarann

Checked the article about Mulcaire.  That picture says a lot about the CBC these days.  Media manipulation alright. Somebody there doesn't like Mulcaire. Don't know anything about him really, but I sure hate that kind of stuff from our public broadcaster. Cue my own hypocracy - unless it's aimed at Harper of course.  Then it shows his true character.

SRB

Sarann wrote:

Checked the article about Mulcaire.  That picture says a lot about the CBC these days.  Media manipulation alright. Somebody there doesn't like Mulcaire. Don't know anything about him really, but I sure hate that kind of stuff from our public broadcaster. Cue my own hypocracy - unless it's aimed at Harper of course.  Then it shows his true character.

I think he's one of the more credible candidates in the NDP, and perhaps in the minds of some at CBC this makes him a threat to the Liberals or something.  They've long posted unflattering pictures of him and stories about him, even when Jack was still leader. They had an even more unflattering picture of him up recently, obviously fighting tears after receiving a hug from Libby.

As for Mulcair's announcement, he will still have to win support throughout the country as well as signing up new members -- just like every other candidate for the leadership.

Paul Gross

The wiki ndp leadership page is starting to come together. Unlike ottawaobserver's insightful list, wiki does not categorize the candidates. It does have a handy, although still incomplete, Bilingual yes/no column

6079_Smith_W

Northern Shoveler wrote:

Could we retire the word moderate.  The word has no definable meaning and is a subjective term based solely on the observers political biases. 

Good idea. I'd be happy if we retired the words "right" and "left" too, which also have no real meaning.

 

JeffWells

Stockholm wrote:
Then there is "person X". I heard Capstick muse about someone enter the race from outside politics or that Brian Topp might be a "stalking horse" for a 'player to be named later".

I do hope so (and my longshot hope is that she's Michaelle Jean). Regardless, a fresh and unexpected face - so long as the candidacy is credible - would be great for the party and for politics, regardless of the outcome.

 

Lou Arab Lou Arab's picture

Add Mulcair and Boivin to the 'considering it' group, and Chris Charlton to the 'ruled it out' list.

Source.

ottawaobserver

Lou Arab wrote:

Add Mulcair and Boivin to the 'considering it' group, and Chris Charlton to the 'ruled it out' list.

Source.

Done.

Policywonk

ottawaobserver wrote:

The Wikipedia page also lists Greg Selinger and Nycole Turmel. I consider those two completely likely for self-evident reasons, and am not listing them at all.

I assume you mean completely un-likely.

Policywonk

SRB wrote:

Sarann wrote:

Checked the article about Mulcaire.  That picture says a lot about the CBC these days.  Media manipulation alright. Somebody there doesn't like Mulcaire. Don't know anything about him really, but I sure hate that kind of stuff from our public broadcaster. Cue my own hypocracy - unless it's aimed at Harper of course.  Then it shows his true character.

I think he's one of the more credible candidates in the NDP, and perhaps in the minds of some at CBC this makes him a threat to the Liberals or something.  They've long posted unflattering pictures of him and stories about him, even when Jack was still leader. They had an even more unflattering picture of him up recently, obviously fighting tears after receiving a hug from Libby.

As for Mulcair's announcement, he will still have to win support throughout the country as well as signing up new members -- just like every other candidate for the leadership.

As far as signing up new members is concerned, the last date for that in the 2003 Leadership election was December 10th, 2002. Given similar timelines, that still gives over three months to sign up new members. 

ottawaobserver

Policywonk wrote:

ottawaobserver wrote:

The Wikipedia page also lists Greg Selinger and Nycole Turmel. I consider those two completely likely for self-evident reasons, and am not listing them at all.

I assume you mean completely un-likely.

Yep. Thank goodness for the Edit button, eh, PolicyWonk.

Idealistic Prag... Idealistic Pragmatist's picture

Sarann wrote:

A cautionary tale.  I was a Blaikey supporter, being an old prairie Tommy Douglas social democrat, but I asked my local MP (an NDP of course) who he thought would be the best person to lead the party and he said Jack Layton.  He was right.  I think you have to work at close quarters with people to tell who has the best leadership qualities. All the media speculation and all the outside of party speculation is just nonsense.

Yeah, this is exactly where I'm at these days. I voted for Blaikie last time, enthusiastically, but it didn't take long after Jack won for me to realize that I'd been misguided. So I'm going to try to be open to everyone this time, and give each of them a real chance to convince me.

Newfoundlander_...

I had a feeling the NDP would have a candidate who would promote talks with the Liberals.

Sarann

I have read Naomi Klein mentioned and Avi Lewis and even Louise Arbour (now wouldn't that drive the conservatives crazy).

Boom Boom Boom Boom's picture

Pat Martin will be on P&P in a few minutes to explain why he will run on uniting the Liberals and NDP; Brian Topp and Thomas Mulcair will also be on.

(show will be repeated at 6 pm)

ETA: Evan Solomon is clearly trying to sow division in the NDP.

ottawaobserver

Here is the link to Brian Topp's interview with Joel-Denis Bellevance of La Presse. It's a lot longer than most of the English interviews.

http://www.cyberpresse.ca/actualites/quebec-canada/politique-canadienne/...

Stockholm

Boom Boom wrote:

Pat Martin will be on P&P in a few minutes to explain why he will run on uniting the Liberals and NDP; Brian Topp and Thomas Mulcair will also be on.

(show will be repeated at 6 pm)

ETA: Evan Solomon is clearly trying to sow division in the NDP.

Of course if you were someone who actually did want to see a NDP/Liberal merger - this would be the kiss of death. Pat Martin would be a very distant also-ran in a leadership race and if he ran on that singular platform and ended up with 5% of the vote - it would totally slam the door on a merger once and for all!

samuelolivier

Is there a way I can watch P&P online? I've been looking on the cbc website...

 

samuelolivier

got it ;)

JeffWells

Martin says if he doesn't hear someone talking up cooperation with the Liberals, he'll jump in and be the "unity" candidate.

Pat Martin, Unity Candidate sounds, well, hilarious.

 

 

Boom Boom Boom Boom's picture

Sheesh. Solomon should be called out for trying to tear the NDP apart.

ravenj

How exactly will anyone be able to tear the NDP apart?  Media type needs sensational story, let's give it to them!  The more exciting the better.

NicHull

Not a fan of a merger. G&M talks about the timing of the leadership process here

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/opinions/editorials/ndp-leadership-race-should-be-open-and-competitive/article2147495/

JeffWells

I agree with what Cheri diNovo posted on FB this afternoon, re merger:

To my Liberal friends and colleagues: you are welcome to become New Democrats at any time. Just call any of our campaign offices.

Boom Boom Boom Boom's picture

Pat Martin's call for "unity" does raise an important question, though: what is the best way to defeat the Conservatives in 2015? 

I'll be looking at the polling carefully now. Polling should show the degree of support that would exist if the NDP and Liberals merged, versus their stand-alone support. I think there was polling along these lines before the last election when the NDP became the Official Opposition. There should be new polling now that the NDP are the OO - does the voting public believe the NDP can go further and actually form government, or would the Conservatives be more likely to be defeated by a united Liberal/NDP?

Personally, I'm not concerned with the NDP maintaining Official Opposition status in the next election - I want the Conservatives defeated. What is the best way to achieve that? I'd suggest electing a new leader with a high charisma factor as well as proven electoral smarts - someone who might entice the Liberals to jump ship and join with the NDP. Smile

Anonymouse

Any suggestions about media sources to follow the leadership race where they don't/won't play these sensationalist (set the foxes among the chickens) games? On a side note, it would make me very happy if any future announced leadership contenders would make a point of reaching out to progressive media (e.g. rabble, the tyee, etc) so we could get to know them better (e.g. beyond the yellow headlines and sound bites).

NicHull

In light of this study I don't see much vote splitting happening at the last elections that would call for a merger with the Libs:

http://www.punditsguide.ca/2011/05/mommy-they-split-my-vote/

Boom Boom Boom Boom's picture

One of the pundits on P&P suggested it will take one more federal election - hinting that the Conservatives will win again - for folks to realize maybe a merger isn't such a bad idea.

knownothing knownothing's picture

What a bunch of bullshit. Why doesn't Pat Martin just go join the Liberals? i used to like him for his toughness but ever since he stood up at the convention to try and ditch socialism from the constitution I have lost respect for him.

How can one stand up for a socialist monopoly like the Wheat Board and then want to take out socialism from the constitution and join the Liberals?

Here is what I think is going on, from the perspective of a young NDP'er: Many of the older members and MP's having been working hard for years to get the NDP into power and now we are so close they can taste it and they want to abandon all the hard work to be absorbed into the centrist machine that is the Liberals.

THE POINT IS NOT TO WIN OR LOSE THE ELECTION! THE POINT IS TO KEEP CANADIAN POLITICS AS FAR LEFT AS POSSIBLE AND AS LONG AS THERE ARE 3 PARTIES WE WILL BE MORE LEFT THAN THE US. THEY HAVE A DEMOCRATIC PARTY WITH A PROGRESSIVE CAUCUS BUT WE HAVE A PROGRESSIVE PARTY WITH A SOCIALIST CAUCUS, LET'S KEEP IT THAT WAY. YOU DON'T CHANGE YOUR MESSAGE WHEN IT IS WORKING FOR YOU, YOU HAVE TO WAIT FOR THE WORLD TO COME TO YOU, IT WILL HAPPEN!

Pogo Pogo's picture

We don't need to defeat Conservatives in the next election.  We need to defeat the beliefs that they stand for.  To do that we need to speak with a consistent message.  That will not happen with a merger.

Stockholm

I don't want a merger. i want the Liberals to keep on splitting the rightwing pro-business vote with the Tories!!

Anonymouse

Boom Boom wrote:

Pat Martin's call for "unity" does raise an important question, though: what is the best way to defeat the Conservatives in 2015? 

I'll be looking at the polling carefully now. Polling should show the degree of support that would exist if the NDP and Liberals merged, versus their stand-alone support. I think there was polling along these lines before the last election when the NDP became the Official Opposition. There should be new polling now that the NDP are the OO - does the voting public believe the NDP can go further and actually form government, or would the Conservatives be more likely to be defeated by a united Liberal/NDP?

Personally, I'm not concerned with the NDP maintaining Official Opposition status in the next election - I want the Conservatives defeated. What is the best way to achieve that? I'd suggest electing a new leader with a high charisma factor as well as proven electoral smarts - someone who might entice the Liberals to jump ship and join with the NDP. Smile

OO and Lou Arab have started laying out some great ideas in this vein.

One of their ideas I would like to echo is the need to energise Canada's First Nations communities to engage with the democratic process. If you look at the numbers, I think there is a strong case to be made that as thing stand the NDP is probably very competitive in every single "northern" riding in Canada. If you added a surge in First Nation participation, to the benefit of the NDP, to that mix, I believe the NDP could sweep every riding north of 54 degrees lattitude. The keys are candidate recruitment, a communications and organising campaign, greater voter enfranchisement(e.g. polls)/registration, policies to help the young populations of these communities connect with a brighter future, and addressing critical infrastructure gaps/needs.

Another issue is the collapsing Liberal party in Atlantic Canada. This is a moment of opportunity, those votes are very much up for grabs between the NDP and Conservatives in the provinces of Newfoundland & Labrador (where the NDP is going from strength to strength), Nova Scotia (where outside of the former NDP stronghold of Cape Breton the Liberals are in increasing trouble), New Brunswick (where for the first time in history the Liberals were driven in to 3rd place [virtually province-wide] and the NDP missed winning Moncton [for the first time ever] by a couple thousand votes with virtually no ground game).

In Québec, I think every seat is potentially at play. The weakest region for the NDP is clearly Southeastern Québec, but even there they ran a strong second. Probably the hardest seats to win would be the rich anglo seats in Montréal, but if Cotler and Dion retire, and the NDP recruits star candidates, these seats will fall too. Cotler and Dion are impediments to the NDP because they are left of centre Liberals with a great deal of integrity. As Jack said to Cotler once, they're in the wrong party (although I'm sure some NDPers would be fine not have Cotler's strong support of Israel or Dion's sword-crossing with sovereigntists within the NDP tent). I can dream of a day in which the only non-NDP seat in Québec might be Scarpallegia's. A seat the Liberals have been trying to push him out of for the last several years now so that they can "bring in some new blood." Anyways, the NDP needs to press hard in to the demographics of the seats that remain in rivals hands in Québec not so much because they can expect big gains in the province but because the best defence (with so many incumbents to defend and the BQ not yet retired) is offence, and any seat losses can be offset with seat gains so long as the NDP is playing for keeps.

In Ontario, I feel strongly that the NDP needs to reach out to visible minority populations (who have been abandoning the Liberals in droves) and the francophone community in Eastern Ontario. As it stands, francophone Eastern Ontario has changed from a Liberal fortress with the NDP in the single digits, to a genuine three-way race. In the last election, part of the dynamic that was playing out in Québec began playing itself out here and these communities are also quite tied in to Ottawa, including through (mostly francophone) public servants that make the commute back and forth. Ottawa-Vanier, for instance, needs a star candidate and full targetting next time. On the visible minority front, it is the low and middle income areas around Toronto that need to be targetted (e.g. Miss, Brampton, Scarborough, Etobicoke) on the basis of economic status and the NDP's historic championing of minorities. The NDP also needs to target Ontario's small cities, with urbanised populations of professionals (e.g. London, Waterloo, Kitchener, Guelph, Peterborough, etc). A platform that targets these cities infrastructural needs and addresses concerns about quality of life and sustainability can raise the NDP's fortunes here. Lastly, I think the NDP needs to put in an effort but be realistic about its chances in rural Ontario. In many areas of rural Ontario, the NDP is running up against large Conservative majorities. Winning these seats is at best a two (probably three)-election process, because the margins are so disproportionate. With the exception of rural areas tied to manufacturing bases with urban sections in the riding (e.g. Essex, Lambton-, Sarnia, Elgin-Middlesex-London), the NDP is running up against a serious head wind in these areas.

In the praries, redistribution will play a key role in the NDP's fortunes in Saskatchewan, Manitoba, and less likely British Columbia. In Manitoba, the path forward is to have a very detailed and audacious plan to sweep Winnipeg, while trying to stir up an NDP upwelling in Selkirk-Interlake and Saint Boniface. This relatively tight area of targetting should make a win do-able with the right amount of planning. One factor the NDP has to consider is how to manage its optical distance from provincial politics so as to avoid swoons in popular support while not jettisoning the NDP's strong base of provincial support.

In Saskatchewan, redistribution will play a key role, but the party badly needs a renewal here. The activist base needs to be rebuilt, the party needs to become younger, more democratic, and much more (rebellious)/populist. The NDP should run on platforms of economic populism mixed with hammering the Tories over health care. On health care, blame games and throwing money at problems aren't the answer, innovation (as Layton would argue) is the answer. What can the NDP put forward in the way of innovative ideas for revitalising health care? Without greatly adding to the fiscal burden?

In BC, the NDP needs to work on candidate recruitment, resource development questions, and green issues to push forward on three fronts: 1) sweeping Vancouver Island (with the exception of Saanich-Gulf Islands, this is truly doable; resource development, fiscal policy, and health care innovation are key, the unheld Island is a weird mix mix of rural areas, urban retirees, and the Comox airbase [which could mean have a more robust policy direction on the Canadian air force]) 2) Eroding the Liberal grip on upper middle class Greater Vancouver (green issues, fiscal policy issues) and ethnic communities (candidate recruitment, bread and butter issues...this is a very similar campaign as has to be run in the areas around Toronto) 3) Consolidating small pockets of support in the Conservative interior (resource issues, economic populism, candidate recruitment, and energising First Nations are the key...very few ridings are seriously at play though so targetting must be limited and very strategic).

That's my vision of the campaign road map. In the air war, the NDP needs to mitigate its weaknesses on the economic file, big time. It also needs to identify the Conservatives key polling weaknesses on social issues and try to expand these during the next sessions of Parliament. To quote Sun Tzu, "Victorious warriors win first and then go to war, while defeated warriors go to war first and then seek to win."

Aristotleded24

Anonymouse, to your campaign map, I'd also add that the NDP is looking to come to life in Alberta without the Liberals, and the NDP should look at organizing there, particularly in Edmonton, Calgary, and the North.

Lord Palmerston

JeffWells wrote:

I agree with what Cheri diNovo posted on FB this afternoon, re merger:

To my Liberal friends and colleagues: you are welcome to become New Democrats at any time. Just call any of our campaign offices.

Does this include Bob Rae?

klexo

Dismiss Martin if you will but his comments today have massive significance, especially on the heels of what Coderre and Justin Trudeau said yesterday on the topic. It looks as if we are on the verge of a full blown debate on merger or "cooperation" within the NDP. Does anyone have any idea how that will play out among the membership? 

Related, re Topp,  would it be fair to surmise anything re Topp's thoughts on merger from his strong Romanow connections? 

Also here's a link to a Van Sun bit where Julian talks in a way that makes you think he is running. 

http://www.vancouversun.com/life/Western+Canadian+leadership+hopefuls+to...

Finally, I wonder if there are other new francophone bilingual Quebec MPs who we are not considering who should be getting more serious consideration. I have been thinking that a bilingual anglophone with strong Quebec connections is what we are looking for ideally, but a bilingual francophone from Quebec who can speak well to the rest of the country might be even better. At the least, I would definitely like to see a francophone Quebecois MP run for the leadership. 

oldgoat

Lord Palmerston wrote:

JeffWells wrote:

I agree with what Cheri diNovo posted on FB this afternoon, re merger:

To my Liberal friends and colleagues: you are welcome to become New Democrats at any time. Just call any of our campaign offices.

Does this include Bob Rae?

 

 

That's something the MSM seems to be totally deaf to.(sorry about the dangling participle) Some commenters seem to think as an ex dipper he'd be the one to build bridges.   Bob Rae is about as welcome within NDP circles as Mad Cow Disease at the Royal Winter Fair.

Stockholm

Ha! That's a great analogy oldgoat. i usually tell people who don't know any better that Bob Rae is about as welcome at an NDP function as a turd floating in a punchbowl!

JeffWells

Lord Palmerston wrote:

JeffWells wrote:

I agree with what Cheri diNovo posted on FB this afternoon, re merger:

To my Liberal friends and colleagues: you are welcome to become New Democrats at any time. Just call any of our campaign offices.

Does this include Bob Rae?

Sure, let him take out a membership. I don't believe he could win a riding's nomination if he tried, though.

Aristotleded24

klexo wrote:
Dismiss Martin if you will but his comments today have massive significance, especially on the heels of what Coderre and Justin Trudeau said yesterday on the topic. It looks as if we are on the verge of a full blown debate on merger or "cooperation" within the NDP. Does anyone have any idea how that will play out among the membership?

I think this merger talk has much more with the Canadian chattering classes trying to promote some sort of left-wing continuity between the Liberals and the NDP so that Canadians can go back to alternating between the 2 elite parties. In other words, trying to herd us mice back to voting for the blue cats or the red cats.

I don't expect that to get much traction. For one, the only thing the Liberals had going for them was the fact that they were the largest party after the Conservatives. They are not, and now it's the NDP that has the best shot at defeating the Conservatives. You also don't have this discussion happening provincially, which is strange indeed. Go east to Atlantic Canada, and you will see the Liberals last bastion crumbling. In Newfoundland and Labrador, the NDP stands a good chance of knocking the Liberals out of Official Opposition status. Nova Scotia is moving towards an NDP-PC polarization provincially, and probably will fedederally as well. The only reason the Nova Scotia Liberals are second place in the legislature right now is the massive unpopularity of the previous PC governmetn. As for current Liberal governments, BC, Ontario, Quebec, and PEI are the only provinces with standing Liberal governments, and excluding PEI, the Liberal brand is severly tarnished in each province. Ontario is key here. While the pundits are talking about what it would mean for Ontario to be governed by the right wing at 3 levels should Hudak win, they are also not letting on that the Liberals are in real danger of falling into third place. If the Liberals lose Ontario this badly, they are done as a national party.

For the heck of it, as I mentioned upthread, the NDP is also coming alive in Alberta as well, and if Alberta comes on line, that's even more seats for the NDP where the Liberals are not even a factor.

And I do have to say that any talk of "co-operation" with the Liberals shows a huge lack of self-confidence both in the NDP and the broader social movements, as if votes can easily be interchanged. That is false. Remember that blue Liberals gave Harper his majority to stop the socialist hordes from banging down the gates.

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