NDP Now Tied With Liberals - 17 Apr

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KenS

With the nature of the daily polling, Nanos numbers are more likely to be out of whack. Even as they show stability form day-to-day... that still may mask methodological artifces that are greater than the metodological artifices of others.

Personally, I dont preclude that they all have deep methodological flaws. Probabilistically speaking, that could be true, while none of them are outliers in relation to the others. In other words: none of them produclng bad enough results to be ridiculous, but possibly none actually able to pick up trends developing.... just all of them reproducing a similar mediocrity.

simonvallee

Basement Dweller wrote:

Nanos has the NDP higher in Quebec than anywhere else in the country. i don't believe that.

 

It's a bit surprising, but not that unbelievable. The NDP is pretty established in certain regions/provinces, but in English-Canada, it keeps getting squeezed between the Liberals and the Conservatives whom the media always portray as a two-horse race.

In Québec, it used to be between the Bloc and the Liberals, but the Liberals' image has been heavily stained, if not irremediably, by the sponsorship scandal and a very unpopular Liberal provincial government. It has lost its status as the second party, at least amongst francophones. The Conservatives have tried to replace them, but they fail because their program is so at odds with the ideas and values of most of Québec that their growth is severely limited to some right-leaning districts around Québec city. So there's a void in the political landscape of Québec, and the NDP can exploit that void.

The NDP has a lot of sympathy, Québécois love affable leaders who seem more down-to-earth (René Lévesque, anyone? Even Dumont qualifies) and the NDP's values are very in line with Québec's on most issues. They can even appeal directly to the Bloc's voters since their programs are so similar. The NDP has little organization in the province, but they have a lot of space in which to grow. I'd even say that ceiling of potential support for the NDP is currently higher in Québec than in any other province.

NorthReport

Layton obviously did extremely well in the debates

Layton sees growing Quebec support, targets Liberals

The attention on Quebec may be paying off for the NDP, as a series of polls released on Monday showed the party gaining strength in Quebec.

For his part, Liberal Leader Michael Ignatieff has made his own attempts to take voters away from the NDP since the campaign began.

Ignatieff has made the pitch that the Liberals are the only party that can stop Conservative Leader Stephen Harper.

 But it's that history of governing that Layton is trying to use against the Liberals.

"The major difference is that we're committing to get things done," Layton said. "They've made commitments and turned right around and broke those commitments time and time again. That's the major difference."

The NDP leader received strong reviews following the two leaders' debates last week.

 http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/montreal/story/2011/04/18/cv-election-layton-quebec-812.html

Northern-54

Angus Reid Regionals:

 

BC

Conservative 46%

NDP 28%

LIB 16%

Green 9%

 

Alberta

Conservative 60%

NDP 22%

Liberal 13%

Green 4%

 

Prairies

Conservative 51%

NDP 27%

Liberal 19%

Green 3%

 

Ontario

Conservatives 38%

Liberal 31%

NDP 24%

Green 7%

 

Quebec

Conservative 17%

Liberal 19%

NDP 26%

BLOC 36%

 

Atlantic

Conservative 22%

Liberal 38%

NDP 32%

Green 7%

 

 

Anonymouse

Those are really good numbers for the NDP. Usually I urge caution with polls but let's celebrate. Even if the polls don't hold up, 25% is the highest the NDP has ever achieved under Jack Layton's leadership and that a milestone worth recognizing.

As for the believability of the poll? Why not? It has been preceeded by a lot of good polls and the Québec numbers are even starting to feel like old news. One of the things I look forward to in this campaign is Layton not repeated Broadbent's gaffe of saying the Liberals are finished and scaring every Liberal back into voting for Ignatieff. In fact, I expect Layton will be pursuing a mixed strategy of giving voice to Liberal voters disappointment (with their leadership) and then the Manitoba NDP's "hug a Liberal" approach.

JeffWells

simonvallee wrote:

The NDP has a lot of sympathy, Québécois love affable leaders who seem more down-to-earth (René Lévesque, anyone? Even Dumont qualifies) and the NDP's values are very in line with Québec's on most issues. They can even appeal directly to the Bloc's voters since their programs are so similar. The NDP has little organization in the province, but they have a lot of space in which to grow. I'd even say that ceiling of potential support for the NDP is currently higher in Québec than in any other province.

 

I agree with that. I'll be delighted, but I won't be surprised anymore, if I see the NDP cresting 30% in the province by election day.

Whenever things look this good I worry, like a good New Democrat, that it's all an illusion. But things have not looked this good, this late in a campaign, since ever. At the very least, with two weeks to go, the NDP has grievously disrupted the "two main party horserace" meme that was inevitably emerging.

Anonymouse

Btw, the NDP is opening up a BIG lead on the other federalist parties in Québec. Canadians take note.

bekayne

NorthReport wrote:

Nanos is now affiated with Globe/CTV whose mission has been to create a 2-way race over the past several elections.

And Angus Reid is affiliated with the Toronto Star & Leger is affiliated with QMI (the Sun chain). Are you suggesting Nanos is cooking his polls?

Arthur Cramer Arthur Cramer's picture

I don't understand what is going on with Nanos. AR and his numbers have been vastly different every time. Thoughts anyone?

By the way, these are encouraging numbers, but I say take it with a grain of salt.

takeitslowly

people have been voting strategically in 2004, 2006 , and 2008, i think many are willing to do something different in 2011...including giving the NDP a chance..

Northern-54

My best guess is the following:

Nanos is doing a phone poll and seniors are likely to respond on it and they are more likely to vote Conservative or Liberal.  Angus Reid is doing online polls which are more likely to attract young people who use cell phones and are less likely to be picked for the phone surveys.  Perhaps, Angus Reid alters their poll results to reflect demography of the voting population.  It is unlikely that a tracking poll would do that as it takes awhile and there isn't enough numbers to warrant it.

Another possible reason is that tracking polls drop 400 off each night and add 400 which goes them to look unstable.  Also, tracking polls tend to pick 2 or 3 voters per riding in an area.  If a party's support is centralized in winnable ridings like the NDP, this could cause wild fluctuations in results.

I do not believe it likely that Nanos is manipulating their results but if, in fact, Nanos is "cooking" their polls, I'd look for a "correction" by the end of the campaign so it doesn't affect their long term reputation.

JeffWells

Duceppe breaks vow to not comment on polls:

La montée du NPD inquiète Gilles Duceppe

http://www.cyberpresse.ca/actualites/elections-federales/201104/18/01-43...

CanadianAlien

389 polls from Jan 2007 to April 2011

Polling Organization----LIB GRE CON NDP BQ
Abacus-----------------0.25 0.08 0.37 0.20 0.10
Angus Reid--------------0.28 0.08 0.36 0.18 0.09
EKOS-------------------0.28 0.11 0.34 0.16 0.09
Environics--------------0.30 0.08 0.36 0.16 0.09
Harris Decima-----------0.28 0.10 0.34 0.17 0.09
Ipsos Reid--------------0.30 0.09 0.36 0.15 0.09
Leger------------------0.27 0.07 0.35 0.16 0.08
Nanos-----------------0.33 0.06 0.36 0.17 0.09
Strategic Counsel-------0.30 0.10 0.35 0.16 0.10
Overall Avg-------------0.29 0.09 0.35 0.16 0.09

Polling Organization Total
Nanos 33
Strategic Counsel 31
Ipsos Reid 60
Environics 8
EKOS 101
Harris Decima 82
Angus Reid 59
Leger 13
Abacus 2
Grand Total 389

http://www.wlu.ca/lispop/fedsupporttable.html

Angus Reid Strategies: If a federal election were held tomorrow, which one of the following parties would you be most likely to support in your constituency?

EKOS Research Associates: If a federal election were held tomorrow, which party would you vote for?

Environics: If a Canadian federal election were held today, which one of the following parties would you vote for [ROTATE PARTIES] the Liberal Party, the Conservative Party, the New Democratic Party, [Quebec Only] the Bloc Québécois, the Green Party, or another party?

Ipsos Reid: Thinking of how you feel right now, if FEDERAL election were held tomorrow, which of the following parties' candidates would you, yourself, be most likely to support ?

Strategic Counsel:

1. If the federal election was being held tomorrow, do you think you’d be supporting the (ROTATE LIST) Liberal candidate in your area, Conservative candidate in your area, the NDP candidate in your area, or the Green Party candidate in your area or (QUEBEC ONLY) Bloc Quebecois candidate in your area?
2. In that case, which party’s candidate in your local area would you be leaning towards at this time? Would it be the (ROTATE LIST) Liberal candidate in your area, Conservative candidate in your area, the NDP candidate in your area, Green Party candidate in your area or (QUEBEC ONLY) Bloc Quebecois candidate in your area?

Nanos: For those parties you would consider voting for federally, could you please rank your top two current local preferences? (Committed Voters Only - First Preference)

Lard Tunderin Jeezus Lard Tunderin Jeezus's picture

Not that it matters a whole lot, but a mere 11 votes here would put Jack on top....

Stockholm

The details of the Leger poll are out now:

http://www.legermarketing.com/documents/POL/114181ENG.pdf

A few highlights:

Atlantic: C33%, L34%, NDP29%

Quebec: BQ34%, NDP24%, C20%, L20%

Ontario: C43, L34%, NDP18%

Man/Sask: C47, NDP27, L21

Alberta: C59%, NDP17%, L17%

BC: C37%, NDP28%, L24%, G10%

 

Sean in Ottawa

The NDP could well do better in Quebec than elsewhere.

For one they are getting a solidly better reception form the media there and that counts for something.

Interestingly Harper is now saying he needs a majority to deal with Quebec separation. This may motivate his base but I doubt it will help undecided who may recognize the nightmare scenario: majority Con government with negligible support in Quebec. If anything fear of a PQ government and referendum should motive people to vote for something other than Harper. Cons of course will want to come out to put Quebec in its place but I think most people ought to be alarmed by any prospect of a Con majority in that situation.

 

bekayne

Lard Tunderin Jeezus wrote:

Not that it matters a whole lot, but a mere 11 votes here would put Jack on top....

He's about 600 behind Harper

JeffWells

Something that needs saying now is that the NDP has a much stronger claim to "national party" status than the Liberals.

Harper's playing the Scary Separatist card is disturbing as well as despicable. Conservative strategists seem to have thrown in the towel on courting the province, and are now gambling on a "Get tough on Quebec" line. If he gains a majority government on those terms he's destined to be Canada's Milosevic.

 

bekayne

Noticed this in the Angus Reid poll:

Male: NDP 25%, Lib 24%

Female: NDP 27%, Lib 23%

Total: NDP 25%, Lib 25%

Malcolm Malcolm's picture

I assume that means the Liberals lead the New Democrats among transgendered / transexual / intersexed?

Slumberjack

I can't see Iggy surviving for long as party leader when this election is concluded.  The ascendency of Bob Rae should do wonders down the road for the NDP in Ontario.

bagkitty bagkitty's picture

Slumberjack --- hey it's an election let's drift... I agree with your point about Iggy not surviving long, however I think it will be more interesting to watch what happens with the Cons when Harper fails to deliver a majority. That particular pressure cooker has been on the heat much longer, and I think we are due for a major explosion. I am already stocking up on popcorn (I would stock up on schadenfreude too... but I already have a lifetime supply).

Vansterdam Kid

JeffWells wrote:

Something that needs saying now is that the NDP has a much stronger claim to "national party" status than the Liberals.

Harper's playing the Scary Separatist card is disturbing as well as despicable. Conservative strategists seem to have thrown in the towel on courting the province, and are now gambling on a "Get tough on Quebec" line. If he gains a majority government on those terms he's destined to be Canada's Milosevic.

 

 

Good point.

According to these polls at least the Liberals are basically a Vancouver (proper), Winnipeg (proper), Metro Toronto, a few other cities in Ontario, Anglophone Montreal & Atlantic party. The Cons have basically written off any chance at making gains, or even holding onto their Quebec support, whereas only the NDP has reasonably balanced support throughout English and French Canada, with a reasonable shot at winning seats in every province except PEI.

Slumberjack

@ BK

I suspect Harper will survive with another minority government, at least for awhile as he's able to put the 'parliament working together' mantra to nefarious uses post election.  It's unlikely that he'll go into another election beyond this one if minority territory is once again on the horizon.  Things could change later on though if it looks like he's consistently polling a steady majority.

Aristotleded24

Vansterdam Kid wrote:
JeffWells wrote:
Something that needs saying now is that the NDP has a much stronger claim to "national party" status than the Liberals.

Harper's playing the Scary Separatist card is disturbing as well as despicable. Conservative strategists seem to have thrown in the towel on courting the province, and are now gambling on a "Get tough on Quebec" line. If he gains a majority government on those terms he's destined to be Canada's Milosevic.

 

Good point.

According to these polls at least the Liberals are basically a Vancouver (proper), Winnipeg (proper), Metro Toronto, a few other cities in Ontario, Anglophone Montreal & Atlantic party. The Cons have basically written off any chance at making gains, or even holding onto their Quebec support, whereas only the NDP has reasonably balanced support throughout English and French Canada, with a reasonable shot at winning seats in every province except PEI.

That case is even stronger when you factor in that Wascana in Saskatchewan is more a Ralph Goodale seat than it is a Liberal seat. When Goodale goes, watch for that riding to change parties and for the Liberal vote in Saskatchewan to plummet, meaning the Liberals won't elect people in Saskatchewan.

NorthReport

 

 

 

Layton sees growing Quebec support, targets Liberals

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/ottawa/story/2011/04/18/cv-election-layton-quebec-812.html

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

edmundoconnor

Malcolm wrote:

I assume that means the Liberals lead the New Democrats among transgendered / transexual / intersexed?

Doubtful. Several Liberals (including a certain Mr Tonks) have proven themselves hostile to C-389. One of the very many reasons they do not deserve the public's trust.

edmundoconnor

I think the Liberals want Goodale there as long as possible, given the unlikelihood of finding a successor candidate.

When Ralph goes, the seat will become a bunfight between the Tories and NDP.

NorthReport

Layton is going to be interviewed tonite on the National

janfromthebruce

yes Malcolm and that was very insightful of you Kiss

 

Malcolm wrote:

I assume that means the Liberals lead the New Democrats among transgendered / transexual / intersexed?

______________________________________________________________________________________ Our kids live together and play together in their communities, let's have them learn together too!

janfromthebruce

Malcolm was playing Laughing

 

edmundoconnor wrote:

Malcolm wrote:

I assume that means the Liberals lead the New Democrats among transgendered / transexual / intersexed?

Doubtful. Several Liberals (including a certain Mr Tonks) have proven themselves hostile to C-389. One of the very many reasons they do not deserve the public's trust.

______________________________________________________________________________________ Our kids live together and play together in their communities, let's have them learn together too!

Sean in Ottawa

Malcolm wrote:

I assume that means the Liberals lead the New Democrats among transgendered / transexual / intersexed?

...or those with no gender because they are machines

Sean in Ottawa

edmundoconnor wrote:

I think the Liberals want Goodale there as long as possible, given the unlikelihood of finding a successor candidate.

When Ralph goes, the seat will become a bunfight between the Tories and NDP.

I think they are just get get him stuffed and keep him till he looks like a five year old apple.

NorthReport

Ignatieff is starting to seriously tank at about the worst possible time in the campaign. Maybe bringing in Martin and Chretien to try and help Ignatieff's faltering campaign, is showing people that he is not a leader and that he can't get the job done.

Nanos Leadership Index

Harper  - 95.9, Up 4.3

Layton - 58.1, Up 1.2

Ignatieff - 40.5, down 11.4

Harper ahead, Layton a firm second on Leadership Index

http://www.nanosresearch.com/election2011/20110417-LeadershipE.pdf

gyor

NorthReport wrote:

Layton is going to be interviewed tonite on the National

Are you talking about that townhall sort of thing the cbc does like in past elections, because I love those. Best part of cbc coverage.

Has anyone else noticed some of the key details of Angus Reid? The NDP is first amoung the 18 to thirty four crowd, second in the 35 to fifty area. Only amoung seniors are liberals beating the ndp. Thank the gods Rick Mercier is getting the youth vote out.

Also Jack is tied with Harper for who would make the best pm at 27 to harpers 28 percent. Jack has the only positive momentuim score when it comes to approval at +26 compared to negatives for every one else. Jack has an approval of 50% which is the highest any leader has gotten in 3 years in this poll.

While things could go down, they could also go up. Who does AR poll for again?

bekayne

gyor wrote:

NorthReport wrote:

Layton is going to be interviewed tonite on the National

Are you talking about that townhall sort of thing the cbc does like in past elections, because I love those. Best part of cbc coverage.

CBC asked each leader if they wanted the Town Hall or be interviewed on the road. Layton chose the latter

Winston

gyor wrote:

Who does AR poll for again?

Toronto Star / La Presse (for this election)

NorthReport
Policywonk

Stockholm wrote:

The details of the Leger poll are out now:

http://www.legermarketing.com/documents/POL/114181ENG.pdf

A few highlights:

Atlantic: C33%, L34%, NDP29%

Quebec: BQ34%, NDP24%, C20%, L20%

Ontario: C43, L34%, NDP18%

Man/Sask: C47, NDP27, L21

Alberta: C59%, NDP17%, L17%

BC: C37%, NDP28%, L24%, G10%

 

With these and the Angus Reid regionals, I don't see the Conservatives netting any seats in Atlantic Canada. While they might pick up a seat or two in Newfoundland, they could lose them elsewhere. That essentially means (assuming they lose at least a handful of seats in Quebec) they'll have to pick up quite a few seats in Ontario for a majority.

Stockholm

Ekos details here - the news just keeps getting better and better in Quebec...as long as we don't "peak too soon". BC looks good here too!

http://www.ekospolitics.com/wp-content/uploads/full_report_april_18_2011...

 

Farmpunk

Duceppe sounds tired.  Maybe getting bad numbers from his own team?  

Aristotleded24

Farmpunk wrote:
Duceppe sounds tired.  Maybe getting bad numbers from his own team?

Definitely. He seems very rattled this go around, and is certainly not performing as well as he has in elections past.

Aristotleded24

What I find noteworthy, other than being tied with the Liberals, is that the NDP are also closing the gap to first place, which slight movement could put them within less than 10% of the first place finisher. Think of what that would mean.

NorthReport

Mulcair must be feeling pumped.

femme_et_Verte

I live in NDG-Lachine. The riding is split in two: the poor franco east who votes Bloc or not at all, and the "rich" mixes west who votes liberal. Marlene Jennings will not be easy to displace. The candidates from the other parties are nobodies. The CPC candidate is not the same as last time. The NDP cnadidate is a fairly young woman (nothing wrong with that but often indicates the party has no serious chance of winning. The Greens got something like 4%.

 

femme_et_Verte

My guesses

Duceppe is going to lose 5 to 8 seats. he is performing poorly.

Conservatives 3 to 5 seats loss. The Beauce is going to stay Blue.

André Arthur is going to stay there (I hate his guts and he hates Montrealers).

Mulcair's seat is safe.

A max. of 4 NDP in Quebec, more probably 2. Vote is too spread out, the map palys against them.

Liberals are going to gain 4 or 5 seats in Quebec.

 

I know that this may not add up mathematically speaking.

 

Look at this, this is 2008 Elections Canada data http://www.cyberpresse.ca/actualites/elections-federales/resultats-des-e...

gyor

I think people are under estimating the possible seats the ndp could get in Quebec being one or two pickups in a provence as big as Quebec with 26 to 24 percent of the vote while the liberals gain even more seats with less of the vote is insane. Even in our crappy system I refuse to believe that. God in Ontario where we do worse most elections we do better with far stronger competiters. A strong second place in Quebec with the liberal weak and only three seats to the liberal gains over the 14 they have now? Thats insane. How many seats does quebec have?

NorthReport

75

NorthReport

Ignatieff just isn't cutting it. So they brought in Paul Martin. And they are bringing in Jean Chretien. And today they brought Justin Trudeau to the help out in the GTA where people like Ruby Dhalla are in big trouble. Look at their screw-up with their health care ad today. The Liberals are in full crisis mode.

David Young

Quebec has 75 seats!

Quebec voters have shown a history of significant vote shifts in a generational cycle over the past 50+ years:

MPs 1957-1958-1962

LIB    61     25     35

PC      9      50     15

SC      0       0     26

OTH    5       0       0

MPs 1980-1984-1988-1993

LIB    74     17     12     19

PC       1     58     63       1

BQ       0      0       0     54

OTH     0      0       0       1

Has the time come for another generational shift?

 

 

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