New and Improved Polling Thread with extra fibre!

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KenS

I wasn't claiming Jack was pioneering something.

The Liberals have 'built' their way out of the dumps, to their accustomed range of support. It remains to be seen that they are building. And there is no basis for assuming the Bloc is on a trend of continuing to lose support... unless of course your frame of reference is that the Liberals will continue to gain in Quebec.

While I think wishes have become expectations about the Liberals, I really don't have a huunch where they are headed... simply that the expectation of coninued growth is just counting chickens.

But when iit comes to the Bloc, my hunch is that they will do no worse than where they are, and are well positioned for the medium term. [And that is not just a rationalization of my wish. The contrary: the Bloc's slide was the NDPs most fertile expansion room.]

West Coast Lefty

Boom Boom wrote:

Yeah, I thought he said something along those lines, but afterwards, Jane Tabor, in a "gotcha" moment, was gushing about how they got Layton 'on the record', so I assumed maybe she was right. Can't trust anyone at CTV it seems.  

Taber got it all wrong - the actually web story on ctv.ca is more accurate.  In the QP interview, Jack clearly said he would not introduce a non-confidence motion, but didn't say that he would prop up Harper if the Libs are BQ moved their own motion. It's a brilliant move by Jack both on substance (so he can focus on passing the Carol Hughes EI Bill that both the BQ and Libs have now committed to support) and tactics (let Iggy put up or shut up in terms of bringing down Harper and forcing a summer election that nobody wants).

Boom Boom Boom Boom's picture

Yes, WCL, except Iggy can't bring down the government except with the support of both the BQ and the NDP, and that is far from certain. In that same QP on CTV Lawrence Martin said he believes the BQ especially do not want to go to the polls right now, and without the BQ onside, Iggy can't defeat the Cons.

Boom Boom Boom Boom's picture

CBC is reporting a new EKOS poll - 11,000 persons polled - showing the Liberals and Cons virtually tied at arund 35%, and suggests no one wants an election with these numbers.

West Coast Lefty

2 new polls out today showing a virtual tie b/w the Libs and Cons nationally - with the NDP either growing in support or holding steady, despite the doom-and-gloom Chantal Hebert column in the Star this AM.

- EKOS has the Libs at 33.5 and the Cons at 32.3, NDP at 15.1, but Harper leads Iggy 30-26 on the "Best PM" question.

- Angus Reid has the Libs at 33%, Cons at 31% and NDP at 17%. 

Bottom line: No party is really resonating with most voters, the "Libs surging, NDP collapsing" spin by the media is BS, and there is zero chance of a summer election.

remind remind's picture

As I said in another thread Herbet et al are trying to manufacture consent by deceit and lies, and are being anti-democratic in the extreme.

nussy

The bottom line is that no one knows. The Conservatives were poised to have a majority the last time out. Harper made a gaff and look what happened. 

 

There wont be an election. The NDP will always have their base support up and down a couple of points. Layton will be fighting his last election the next time out. So will Harper if he loses. 

KenS

You give Hebert too much credit remind.

KenS

The supposed experts have it all wrong with the Bloc.

The Bloc not wanting an election now means nothing. For different reasons not one of the parties wants an election now.

What is different about the Bloc, is that they have everything to gain and absolutely nothing to lose from cutting a deal with Harper that brings home the bacon for Quebec.

Thats the trump card, but my guess is that thigs want even develop far enough that Harper needs it.

Debater

remind wrote:

As I said in another thread Herbet et al are trying to manufacture consent by deceit and lies, and are being anti-democratic in the extreme.

Yes, I noticed you mentioned the term "manufacture consent" on another thread as well.  I have studied Chomsky too, and have several of his books, and while using that term may sound good, it doesn't mean that the phenomenon it describes is actually occuring.

remind remind's picture

One need only to look at the Canadian msm's actions, including Herbert, to see that it is occuring.

Doug

I like big polls and I cannot lie!

 

The Ekos survey of almost 11,000 Canadians - more than 10 times the usual polling size - put the Liberals at 33.5 per cent support and the Conservatives at 32.3 per cent....Jack Layton, leader of the NDP - which has 15.1 per cent public support - said on Sunday he had no plans to move a non-confidence motion on the government before Parliament breaks for its summer recess on June 23.

 

ottawaobserver

It seems like you can get any two of size, a tight time-frame, and a random sample, but never all three at once.  This poll was conducted over 3 weeks in May ... although I suppose at least the sample size was large enough to discern trends within its time-frame.  Apparently Ekos is promising more detailed analysis in the coming days (see Paul Wells' blog), which should be interesting at least.

Boom Boom Boom Boom's picture

Frank Graves of EKOS was just on Newman's Politics show explaining his poll numbers would translate into 110 seats for the Liberals - certainly better than the 70+ thy have now. Neither the Cons nor the Libs are anywhere near majority territory.

Boom Boom Boom Boom's picture

Frank Graves of EKOS was just on Newman's Politics show explaining his poll numbers would translate into 110 seats for the Liberals - certainly better than the 70+ they have now. Neither the Cons nor the Libs are anywhere near majority territory. He also said it's his opinion that  the Libs would not be able to bring either the NDP and the BQ onside to defeat the Cons and force an election this summer.

ottawaobserver

He also said that the Liberal and NDP numbers in Ontario are highly volatile, and that the Liberals' BC polling numbers in the past have never materialized on Election Day (we should note the same phenomenon with the Green Party numbers, too).

He probably should have added that the poll was in the field during the provincial elections in BC and Nova Scotia, and that this would be expected to skew the numbers somewhat.

thorin_bane

Also of note he said the last couple of days, after the deficit number rolled in, the percentages on the cons had begun to slip. So the Angus reid poll may be more acurate at this time. NDP at 17 yeah!

Debater

Apparently the EKOS poll of 11,000 people is the largest ever conducted in Canada!  Therefore, given the sample size, it's numbers could be more accurate.  The Liberals are in an insignificant lead over the Cons, and the NDP may only be at 15% if the numbers are accurate.

It shows though that Ignatieff has not made enough of an impact yet - he is not capturing the Canadian public's imagination in the way that Pierre Trudeau did.

The fact that he is only tied with Harper in the polls means he is going to have do more than he is doing to get Canadians onboard.  Outside of Quebec, Canadians are split on what they think of Harper vs. Ignatieff.

Bookish Agrarian

Or the more likely scenario the more they see of Ignatieff the less they like.  I have predicted this for some time.  Liberal spin notwithstanding, Ignatieff is a dud of a leader.  The big secret of these polls is that both the Liberals and Conservatives have little traction, yet despite all the rhetoric and all the Liberal focus the NDP is essentially holding its own.  If I were a betting person I would expect to see significant growth in NDP numbers as people get turned off by both the other choices in an actual election.  Chances are the Greens would see a bounce too, but it is the big unknown whether the none of the above Green vote would show up to vote on E day if such a scenario panned out.

remind remind's picture

TD Bank stated today that under the Cons, if things keep up the way they are with their spending, our deficit could be 171 billion.

And Trudeau certainly did not capture my imagination. Though admittedly he from a historical perspective is much closer than Iggy and his "serene" state would achieve in that regard.

 

Debater

remind wrote:

TD Bank stated today that under the Cons, if things keep up the way they are with their spending, our deficit could be 171 billion.

And Trudeau certainly did not capture my imagination. Though admittedly he from a historical perspective is much closer than Iggy and his "serene" state would achieve in that regard.

 

I get the sense that no Prime Minister has captured your imagination.  But if I am wrong, please correct me.

remind remind's picture

I loved Dief, and have a huge charcoal etching of him on my wall! But then again that is because I knew him personally as a small child and has little to do with his being PM.

thorin_bane

As I've stated in the past. I was very nationalistic when I was young. Probably would have been red tory(canadian business first) So I have problems relating with any of the prime ministers since my birth. All the good I was taught was from the liberals pretty much originated with Tommy Douglas so yet another illusion was shattered.

I would say my real political awakening came in 1987 (I wasn't quite a teenager even) and the FTA debates raged. I knew enough that BM the PM was a liar. Everything he promised was never realised to me as a consumer. I still cannot take anything across the border without duty. If anything it is harder than ever. But I got to watch all out business get locked out or bought up by foreign interests. The only group that seem to give a ratts ass at all was the NDP(Other than 1993 with hurtig) So I moved to that camp and learned about social justice. Being from a mostly white gradeschool were everyone was equally poor made highschool interesting to say the least. Lucky for me the NDP shared the values I learned as a child. Something many forget when the become adults and money is more important than community.

Back on topic though, there has been a shift. But mostly to apathy. The cons and libs have done such a great job making all politicians seem like greedy pigs at the trough that few care to even vote anymore. Iggy does little to distance himself from this stigma. I don't see much room for the libs to grow without the economy sliding even worse into the depression we are currently facing. The greens are more of spoilers than much else. My gripe has to do with perception. If the greens where not factored and the NDP had 20% in the polls(the magic number, regardless of the other parties) people would start to notice them and look more closely at the platform. Jack has to stop listening to some of his handlers though. I hate when he sounds scripted. His in house critiques are very good and would serve better than the day old gruel they serve up at election time.

If we saw sustained polling in the 20+% the band wagon effect would happen. It does exist as I know people who have told me they don't want to vote NDP cuz it throws away their vote. Or they don't want to lose for a losing party. Which is strange because for the vast majority of time it is an NDP/Lib race down here, last election not withstanding. It would be nice to at least slide into third or be tied at say 45 seats to have that feel of momentum. Heck if the NDP/Bloc had 104 seats between them (hard to do, to be sure) They would pretty much be in charge of the government given a perfect split between the libs and cons. Yeah I do realize thatis impossible given voting patterns in certain regions.

Hope Jack gets some good press while south of the border, an Obomba bump (colbert would be nice!) could give us a few extra points we need.

Sean in Ottawa

The polls for the NDP are actually for the most part both stable of late and of concern. The volatility is mostly in Quebec and Ontario.

Recent polls putting the NDP (last year) around 18-19% were mostly peaking support in Quebec and to a lesser extend Ontario. The decline of support there is bringing the NDP to 15% or so reflecting chronically low numbers from Ontario West when you consider historic levels.There also has been some volatility in BC.

People keep saying the NDP recovered to Broadbent numbers but that is not quite true. In Broadbent's day the NDP was flatlined in Quebec (except a few between election polls) and flatlined in Atlantic Canada. So when the NDP hit 18-19% in the 80s it was doing this based on Ontario to the west support. This support remains well below Broadbent days and the difference is covered up by the new support in Quebec and Atlantic Canada. Similarly seat comparisons make no sense when you compare Broadbent seats from a 282 seat house with the current numbers.

The bad news is the NDP has lost critical mass in several pockets of the country that could deliver seats efficiently. The good news is the party has a much broader base with a presence across the country. Significant effort needs to be placed in regaining the levels of support that existed in the 80s in those strong pockets and expanding on the bridges of support that now exist.

The comments about Mulcair being in trouble are of course all true-- any New Democrat in Quebec MUST be worried at every election. This does not mean all is lost but let's not get complacent- the resources that will be thrown to unseat him will be significant. As well the Liberals are way up and so the vote dynamic in that riding is different and very risky for him. The NDP will have to drop a lot of resources in that riding to hold the seat. I think with enough efort the seat can be held but it will be a significant challenge to do so with more historical Liberal support in Quebec. No doubt some are saying the easiest way to make that seat safer is if he were the leader but that is another debate.

As far as other party support levels a tie between the Cons and Liberals nationally is bad news for Harper-- Liberal leads in Ontario will deliver a lot of seats with wasted Conservative votes while the Liberals have fewer lost votes in Con strongholds. A tie vote would give the Liberals the edge plus they would never hold the house in a reduced minority. One reason they survived the December crisis is that the mandate was a strong minority-- a weak one where the Liberals plus any other party would go over the Cons would be another story. Also while we have not seen it yet I think Harper could go in a tailspin at election time. The Liberal leader is bound to attract quite a few middle right wing voters and can seriously grow there during a campaign. At the same time the Liberals might lose support to both the BQ and NDP during the campaign as Ignatief's personality is likely to be less attractive to BQ and NDP potential voters. the result could be quite serious for Harper. If I predicted now- I would say the story is likely some moderate losses for the NDP in a couple places together with a few gains and little over-all change-- The Cons I thik will lose a lot of marginal seats and the BQ could lose several to the Liberals as well.

KenS

Sean in Ottawa wrote:
I think Harper could go in a tailspin at election time.

Possible. But given his discipline, and the greater discipline of their campaign machine, up against a rookie campaigner with a lot of sticky issues... the significantly higher possibility is that the Liberals are the ones to worry about unpredicatble campaign dynamics going south on them.

That said, I don't think it is going to be on the list of top few concerns for either of them.

Debater

Ignatieff is untested during a general election - it is true.  However, the discipline of Harper and the Conservatives is debatable.  Look at how quickly they collapsed in Quebec during the last election when the "disciplined" Harper went off message and decided to slam artists halfway through the campaign without bothering to think of the ramifications.

ottawaobserver

You're right.  And if it can happen to an experienced campaigner, it is even more likely to happen to an inexperienced one.

Bookish Agrarian

With a history of going off message already

ottawaobserver

Indeed.

nussy

The Leaders have handlers that set the message,,,,its up to the leader to stick to it. They control who ask what question on a campaign stop. If the economy turns around under Harpers watch he will win. The longer this government lasts the better it is for the Conservatives. The Economy will turn around.....thanks to the USA eventually. (sooner than later). 

Sean in Ottawa

I think that there are residual problems for the Cons and that some of the negatives are starting to mount and to stick-- I am not convinced that the Liberal polling increase is associated with them so much as it is dissatisfaction with the ruling party as is usually the case.

 

Bookish Agrarian

Canadians rarely elect a governmnet - usually it is a matter of unelecting an old one.

That the Liberals have not really stretched past the Conservatives under Ignatieff should be keeping Liberal operatives up at night.  They should be much higher given the number of Conservative negatives.

adma

Sean in Ottawa wrote:
If I predicted now- I would say the story is likely some moderate losses for the NDP in a couple places together with a few gains and little over-all change-- The Cons I thik will lose a lot of marginal seats and the BQ could lose several to the Liberals as well.

Actually, I think the Liberals vs Bloc thing might be a sleeper issue here--I wouldn't be surprised if quite an unexpected few existing BQ seats go Grit, if only because Iggy's got more of a potentially compelling Mulroney/Bouchard quality than any leader Quebec's witnessed since Mulroney/Bouchard.  Though I'd be thinking more of suburban-moderate Laval-type seats than Hochelaga/Laurier/Rosemont left-leaners that are most likely to switch.

It may be mixed news for an NDP desperately trying to broaden their Quebec base--but by way of consolation, the NDP might just bluff their way back into being the third place party in national seat totals.

Marg Bedore

Nanos Poll

Libs 37%/Cons 32%/NDP 16%/ Bloc 8% / Green 7%

Quebec Libs 38%/ Cons 12%/ NDP 13% Bloc 35%/ 

Ontario Libs 42% Cons 34%/ NDP 14%/ Green 10%

 

Stockholm

Why is Marg Bedore posting a poll that has the NDP up a point from the last one? This isn't usually her "m.o.".

remind remind's picture

Marg is  back, weeeeeee...

Quote:
No doubt some are saying the easiest way to make that seat safer is if he were the leader but that is another debate.

This is a freaking laugh, as if that happened, seats out west would be lost in order to gain 1 in PQ.

NorthReport

Nanos June, 2009 poll out West

CP - 42%

Lib - 31%

NDP - 18%

Grn - 9%

Undecided - 10%

NorthReport

The Nanos poll changes from April, 2009 to June, 2009

NDP - up 0.5%

CP - down 0.7%

BQ - down 0.8%

Lib - up 0.9%

Grn - up 0.3%

RedRover

NorthReport wrote:

 

Nanos Poll

 

Libs 37%/Cons 32%/NDP 16%/ Bloc 8% / Green 7%

Quebec Libs 38%/ Cons 12%/ NDP 13% Bloc 35%/ 

Ontario Libs 42% Cons 34%/ NDP 14%/ Green 10%

 

 

Okay...so according to the Nanos study the Liberal lead is now outside of the margin of error and firming.   They are in solid minority/weak majority territory according to this study.  Other pollsters are showing them in minority territory.  NDP support is climbing, but still below last election. 

 

Harper is in deep trouble and he knows it.  He will certainly lose his Quebec seats save one or two, several he gained in Ontario, and maybe even some in the east.  He is trailing the Liberals badly in urban Ontario, and has no growth prospects outside of a few seats in BC and Northern Ontario.  I can only think that he is desperately trying to stretch this parliament into the spring of next year when the infrastructure spending will be boosting the economic numbers and when declining growth slows or turns upwards a tick.

If the Liberals choose to roll the dice with a confidence motion, then the Bloc is the only opposition party that has flexibility in rejecting the motion or skipping the vote. If I were a Bloc advisor though, I would be wanting to perhaps cut my losses in the next election, so going to the polls before the Liberals surge peaks would seem to make at least some sense.  And if I were a candidate it would be very difficult to justify why I chose to keep the hated Harper in power as the provincial economy tanks even further.  I would hate to be reminded of that every day on the trail.

Reading the polls and the strategic positioning of the opposition parties, I just can't rule out a summer election at this point. 

That would not make me happy right now.

ottawaobserver

Quote:

no growth prospects outside of a few seats in BC and Northern Ontario

Not really disagreeing with your overall perspective, but I do think the Conservatives think they have some prospects in places like Brampton and Mississauga, and even I read today that they're targetting Winnipeg South Centre.

I don't discount campaign effects, and the Conservatives are very good at narrow-casting their messages to people and going around the national mainstream media with them.  The Liberals aren't, which is why they're heavily stressing all this big P.R. blitz.  But that also puts them at a bigger risk if Iggy doesn't do well on the campaign trail.  I think the Conservatives' infrastructure is strong enough to withstand a boo-boo or two by Harper.

Meantime, I think the Bloc have been showing every sign of getting ready for battle again.  I don't think Duceppe is terrified of Ignatieff, although he does seem to regard him with a healthy dose of wariness and is gearing up a bit of a negative campaign against him if you've checked out the Bloc's website lately...

Marg Bedore

Latest Ispso Reid Cons 33%/ Libs 36%/ NDP 12%/ Bloc 9%/ Green 9%

Ontario Cons 34%/ Libs 41% NDP 14%

Quebec Cons 8%/ Libs 37%/ NDP 8%/ Bloc 38%

Lord Palmerston

I recall the NDP being very low in the polls running up to the 2008 election as well.

ottawaobserver

Certainly in Ipsos-Reid polls we have been.  I'm going to try and link to a graphic of the poll results over the period since Dion was elected leader (Dec, 2006) from PollingReport.ca  ...

Poll results from PollingReport.ca Dec 2006 to Jun 2008

OK, looks like that worked !  Anyways, it proves your point, LP.

ETA:  You can see the graph and all the results for this period here.

RedRover

Lord Palmerston wrote:

I recall the NDP being very low in the polls running up to the 2008 election as well.

It seems since Layton's become leader that the party's floor is about 15% and the ceiling about 20% percent.  This kind of removes the fear of being wiped off the map like in 1993, but I can't see a breakthrough above 50 seats or so happening under his leadership either. 

 

janfromthebruce

Neither did most people see the biggest global recession since the great depression coming and the bail out of financial power houses, and buying in on auto manufacturers and so on. So the past does not predict the future. We'll see and under Layton it's just fine - it appears its those who aren't really NDP supporters who keep wanting to change leaders. I wonder why? Having a leader who has actually gone through a couple of elections as leader is helpful during these "uncertain times."

RedRover

Many people did see things coming Jan. 

A lot. 

As for you other comments...I'm glad you are such a strident Jack supporter, but there are lots of great New Democrats who don't like some of things he's done and feel that he's taken the party as far as he can.

As a New Democrat you should both tolerate and embrace dissent as being healthy qualities in any democratic organization. 

 

Stockholm

So who exactly do you think could just "sashay" in as a successor to Layton and presto have the NDP take 25% of the vote and 70-odd seats??

If there were such a person, I'd be all for it - but I think that what's more likely is that anyone else would be inexperienced and gaffe prone and would quickly learn that it takes years to get the hang of being a party leader and that switching to a different leader would be more likely to lead to a big drop in support than to lead to any sudden gains.

Stockholm

I'm not so sure that Doer would make the transition to federal politics all that well. His whole political life has been spent in the parochial potholing-filling world of Manitoba provincial politics (and we have seen countless examples of successful provincial politicians being total flops at the federal level), he doesn't speak a word of French. In any case, its probably a moot point. At his age I don't think he even has the slightest desire to move into federal politics - I think most expect him to retire in the next few years and sit on a bunch of corporate boards etc... he is already in his 60s and a "couple of elections" under him would take him into his seventies!

RedRover

Gary Doer for two elections, with Jack in his caucus.

Thomas Mulcair after that.

I think that would be best bet to build on Jack's work and move towards government in the next decade. 

Unfortunately, the probability of that is near or at zero.

RedRover

Yes...it would. 

The party will never move past also-ran status though until the fiscal accountability boogeyman is slayed.  Doer can show Canada what a fiscally responsible New Democrat really looks like - most don't even think one exists.  Two terms would require a sacrifice on Mr. Doer's part.  Knowing he would never form government, but contributing to the growth (to 25%?) of the party on it's way to governing.

Mr. Mulcair is impressive and I trust he may be able to wrap things up after that.

My own opinion.

BTW - I feel that Jack saved the party, but others will need to take it to the next level.  This accomplishment on his part should not be forgotten among the faithful if the party ever does form government in the future.

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