Conservatives have either trailed or been statistically tied with the opposition Liberals for months. "Ignatieff can't take it to the next level, but the Conservatives can't seem to get out of the ditch they're in," Donolo said
However in Quebec...
In Quebec, the Bloc Quebecois holds a narrow but statistically insignificant lead over the Liberals, with 37 per cent support compared to 35 per cent for the Grits. Both parties dropped two points in support from the May poll.
The Conservatives are unchanged at nine per cent. The NDP lost a point, dropping to eight per cent, while the Greens gained three points, rising to 11 points in support.
However in Ontario.....
In Ontario, the Tories have regained some ground, with their support rising to 35 per cent from 32 per cent in the May poll. However, they are still down from the 39 per cent support they enjoyed in the fall federal election.
The NDP have dropped five points in Ontario, falling to 10 per cent support, while the Greens remain at 11 per cent support.
"If the Liberals are going to have a chance to win the next election, they really need to shrink that NDP vote, particularly in Ontario," Donolo said.
f you believe these polls, the NDP has dropped below the Green Party in both Quebec and Ontario, yet is virtually unchanged in support Nationally. I do not know how a party can lose 5% of its support in the most populous province and
still have polling numbers unchanged across Canada. Let alone the drop in Quebec.
Something doesn't make sense. Either the Ontario Numbers are out to lunch, or the NDP is in freefall, and I consider a loss of 5% points a free fall. I cannot imagine NDP numbers dropping in Northern Ontario.
However there is reason to believe the LPC and CPC want to make Southern Ontario a 2 party race.
One thing I have consistently noticed about the NDP is that it polls low until it comes time to vote and then, not surprising, they maintain the same traditional vote they have had since their CCF days.
I believe the only exception is the 1993 disaster when the NDP fell to 6% nationwide.
Because this is a dead heat between the CPC and the LPC, there is no movement to a Liberal Sweep like occured in 1993. However, I expect the Liberals to put heavy resources into Ontario and make up the ground lost under the Dion Leadership.
I'd also say that the CPC have been stumbling and bumbling as of late and are leaving a sour taste in Ontario.
I doubt there is any election on the horizon and that the next election will be a marathon, not a sprint. That voter intent will move slowly and there will be some minor shifts away from the CPC in Ontario. But they will hold some newly won turf.
I believe the NDP has its work cut out for it in Ontario. They have connected with the North, but have yet to make strong connections across southern Ontario and in this economy, especially in Southern Ontario, you have to wonder why the NDP numbers aren't going through the roof.
It appear that voters are defaulting to the LPC or parking their vote elsewhere.
And today having read the Tories bash Toronto again, they have made it abundantly clear that they never want to win a seat in Toronto and are just that stupid.