Polling thread: The infinite edition

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Polling thread: The infinite edition

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Krago

For those of you interested in the arcana of polling, the smackdown Nate Silver delivers to the U.S. firm Strategic Vision on his blog fivethirtyeight.com is a thing of beauty.

Strategic Vision posts

 

Sunday Hat

Leger poll.

CPC 36 Lib 30 NDP 17

Best PM (adjusted): Harper 32 (41) Iggy 21(27)  Layton 18 (23)

Some tentative conclusions:

- There doesn't seem to be a backlash against the NDP decision not to force an election.

- There may be a backlash against Liberals for trying to force an election.

- If Ignatieff's not in Dion territory yet he's getting there.

- The NDP may have done Ignatieff the biggest favour of his life.

- Layton may be more popular than his party. Layton LEADS as best PM in Quebec.

 

 

remind remind's picture

Interesting numbers, I did not know Leger was the product of Sun media though.

Sean in Ottawa

Sunday Hat wrote:

Leger poll.

CPC 36 Lib 30 NDP 17

Best PM (adjusted): Harper 32 (41) Iggy 21(27)  Layton 18 (23)

Some tentative conclusions:

- There doesn't seem to be a backlash against the NDP decision not to force an election.

- There may be a backlash against Liberals for trying to force an election.

- If Ignatieff's not in Dion territory yet he's getting there.

- The NDP may have done Ignatieff the biggest favour of his life.

- Layton may be more popular than his party. Layton LEADS as best PM in Quebec.

All reasonable.

bekayne

Sunday Hat wrote:

Leger poll.

CPC 36 Lib 30 NDP 17

Best PM (adjusted): Harper 32 (41) Iggy 21(27)  Layton 18 (23)

- Layton may be more popular than his party. Layton LEADS as best PM in Quebec.

 

 

But remember the Best PM numbers don't include Duceppe.

Stockholm

Leger is smart. They include Duceppe when the question is about who people trust the most or like the most, but when its about who would make the best PM, its pointless to include Duceppe since he isn't running for Prime Minister (I'm not sure what he actually is running for, but that's another issues)

Sean in Ottawa

Best PM is not that relevant-- people don't just vote for a party to make a person PM. Should ask who they think is the most effective leader. Then you will get a better comparison.

Life, the unive...

Given the polling numbers Liberal MPs, particularly from Ontario, should be forced to send NDP MPs a big boquet of thank you roses after the government does not fall on their confidence motion.  Jack Layton should get a nice big box of chocolate as an extra thank you from Ignatieff for pulling him out of the burning poll barn the Liberals have backed themselves into.

Stockholm

Sean in Ottawa wrote:

Best PM is not that relevant-- people don't just vote for a party to make a person PM. Should ask who they think is the most effective leader. Then you will get a better comparison.

I wouldn't go so far as to say that its not relevant at all. I agree that the media sometimes makes too much of these leadership sweepstakes - but that doesn't mean that it is totally irrelevant. What these numbers tell me is that we are right back to where we were one year ago with Harper and Layton being assets to their party and the Liberal leader being a liability. It could change, but that's the way it is right now.

Sunday Hat

The "Best PM" is one - of many - predictors about where the topline numbers will go. Sometimes they won't connect. Sometimes people change their mind about the party and then the Leader. Sometimes vice versa. But, certainly, it's bad news for Ignatieff that the Liberal trend is downward and that his personal popularity is plumetting evern faster.

 

West Coast Lefty

I think Best PM is relevant, but the really killer trend for Iggy is the rating of leaders on key issues - Harper kills him on the economy, deficit/taxes, the environment (!), standing up for Canada's interests, plan for the future, and I think Layton beats Iggy on several issue rankings as well.  That's probably why the Libs are running on the mushy slogan "we can do better" as opposed to a tighter jobs or economy message - their polling is telling them that those subjects are winners for the Conservatives.  When your leader is behind on the salient issues as well as Best PM and overall approval ratings, you have to fall back on "the team" or the "Liberal brand", neither of which are in particularly good shape these days.

I am really curious to see new CROP or Leger polls for Quebec only - that's when we'll be able to measure the impact of the Coderre bombshell this week. 

ottawaobserver

Joel-Denis Bellevance was hinting on Tom Clark yesterday that they're not looking good for the Liberals.  Which I take it means that we'll be getting a new CROP from La Presse later this week.

bekayne

ottawaobserver wrote:

Joel-Denis Bellevance was hinting on Tom Clark yesterday that they're not looking good for the Liberals.  Which I take it means that we'll be getting a new CROP from La Presse later this week.

 

This blogger sez:

Bloc  33% (+3)

Lib   26% (-4)

Con  21% (+4)

 

http://fuddle-duddle.blogspot.com/

 

He says the NDP are down 5%, which would put them at 13%. Though in every other CROP poll this year the 4 parties have always added up to 95% or 96%

NorthReport

What's even worse for the Liberals is that this polling period ended on September 27th, and the Cons are higher in the polls now than when they took 10 seats in the last election

CROP Poll

Bloc - 33%

Libs - 26% (Dion got 24% in the last election) (down 8% since June)

 Cons - 21%

 NDP - 13%

Who would make the Best Prime Minister

Leader / April / May / June / Aug / Sep

Ignatieff/ 45% / 39% / 35% / 35% / 28%

Layton / ?% / ?% / ?% / ?% /23%

Harper / 18% / ?% / 14% / ?% / 23%

Le PLC perd des plumes au Québec

Le Parti libéral perd des plumes au Québec et les espoirs du chef Michael Ignatieff d'y faire des gains importants aux prochaines élections sont compromis.

Le chef libéral suscite ainsi beaucoup moins d'enthousiasme que lorsqu'il est arrivé à la tête du parti, il y a 10 mois. Les attaques soutenues du Bloc québécois et du Parti conservateur contre Michael Ignatieff, la bisbille entre Martin Cauchon et Denis Coderre et l'effacement du chef libéral durant l'été ont eu une influence sur les opinions des Québécois.

Résultat : le Parti libéral n'obtiendrait que 26% des voix au Québec si des élections fédérales avaient lieu aujourd'hui, révèle un sondage CROP-La Presse réalisé auprès de 1000 personnes, du 17 au 27 septembre derniers. Ce résultat est essentiellement le même que celui de Stéphane Dion aux dernières élections (24%).

Il représente aussi une baisse de quatre points de pourcentage par rapport au sondage réalisé en août (30%) et de neuf points comparativement à celui du mois de juin (35%). Ce score est aussi le pire obtenu par les libéraux au Québec depuis que Michael Ignatieff a pris les commandes du parti, en décembre dernier.

Toutefois, le sondage ne tient pas compte des retombées de la démission fracassante de Denis Coderre de son poste de lieutenant politique au Québec et de ses critiques selon lesquelles la garde rapprochée de M. Ignatieff de Toronto essaie de diriger l'aile québécoise du PLC.

À l'avantage du PCC

Le Parti conservateur du Canada tire avantage des ennuis des libéraux au Québec. En effet, les troupes de Stephen Harper obtiendraient 21% des voix si des élections fédérales avaient lieu aujourd'hui, une hausse de quatre points de pourcentage en un mois et une augmentation de huit points depuis juin. Aux dernières élections, les conservateurs avaient récolté 22% des suffrages et réussi à remporter 10 sièges.

Pour sa part, le Bloc québécois se maintient en tête avec 33% des intentions de vote, soit trois points de plus qu'en août. Le NPD voit quant à lui ses appuis passer de 18% en août à seulement 13% en septembre.

Case départ

Selon Maïalène Wilkins, directrice des projets de CROP, le Parti libéral est revenu à la case départ au Québec. «Le Parti libéral se retrouve avec un score similaire à celui qu'avait obtenu M. Dion l'année dernière. M. Ignatieff a connu son sommet en avril quand il a prononcé une série de discours au Québec et qu'il a démontré une certaine ouverture. Les gens étaient à l'époque un peu sous le charme. Mais depuis les appuis sont en baisse», a-t-elle ajouté.

Pour le Parti libéral, malgré le dépôt de la motion de censure, des élections sont loin d'être souhaitables. «Les libéraux tablaient sur des gains au Québec, mais ce serait le statu quo pour eux en ce moment. Et c'est certain que les événements des derniers jours ne viendront pas aider leur cause.»

Mince consolation, de tous les chefs fédéralistes, Michael Ignatieff est perçu par le plus grand nombre de Québécois comme le plus apte à occuper le poste de premier ministre. Mais encore là, sa cote est en forte baisse. Le chef libéral obtient un score de 28% en septembre, alors qu'il récoltait 35% en août et en juin, 39% en mai et 45% en avril.

Pour sa part, la cote de Stephen Harper remonte un peu : 23% des Québécois croient qu'il ferait le meilleur premier ministre, alors qu'ils étaient seulement 18% en août et 14% en juin. Le chef du NPD, Jack Layton, se maintient bien à ce chapitre puisque 23% des Québécois le désignent comme le meilleur premier ministre.

«C'est une véritable dégringolade pour les libéraux et Michael Ignatieff depuis juin. Il a bénéficié d'un capital de sympathie, mais il n'a pas réussi à en profiter», a noté Mme Wilkins.

 http://www.cyberpresse.ca/actualites/quebec-canada/politique-canadienne/200909/29/01-906825-le-plc-perd-des-plumes-au-quebec.php

NorthReport

This is scary, real scary.

 

How's that 'Ignatieff is better than Dion' working for you now?

Grit slide, Tory comeback in Quebec

 

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/blogs/spector-vision/grit-slide-tory-come...

thorin_bane

I could care less about how the libs are doing. I want to see the NDP at 20+ and the cons at 33 or lower those are the numbers that will start to fix this country. Can we stop fear mongering a bit now. Harper doesn't have the same vote split that allowed JC to get his majorities. even at 37% It took the PC and Refrom to both be below 20% for a majority. Frankly when the libs do poorly we gain so it isn't a direct shift from libs to cons. If the cons poll slightly less(not much at all) and libs stay low we pick up seats in the west and become more competitive in the urban areas against these lib numbers.

NDP gets into the election at 18% I would be happy as the front runner always has a hard time pulling up their numbers. I could see the NDP getting into the 20's if they stayed on target with just a few ideas.(Some friendly press would help) I think working with the cons may actually benefit them out west with con/dipper swing voters. They have to take a stand and point out stuff like the Lawrence Martin article. Maybe something in Afghanistan could help pull(not propell) us a half point or two.

Mostly we need any of the huge gaffs by the cons to be reported or hounded the way the MSM did with adscam. They could start with the atomic boondogle and the unreasonable firing of linda keen during the house being prorogued.

NorthReport

Latest Nanos Poll

 

Nanos National Poll - Canadians' views on minority governments and opposition to a fall election (Completed September 11th)

 
Nik on the Numbers

The most recent Nanos Poll shows that Canadians overwhelmingly do not want a fall election.

The poll was conducted days after Michael Ignatieff's September 1st speech in Sudbury where he withdrew the Liberal party's support for the government, immediately bringing the prospect of a fall election into play. When asked whether they would prefer or oppose a fall election, nearly three quarters of Canadians (72.6%) opposed a fall election, while 22.6% would prefer to have one. Only 4.8% were unsure.

Despite a succession of minority governments, Canadians strongly preferred majority governments. Eight out of ten Canadians agreed (68.7%) or somewhat agreed (11.9%) they "would like to see a party win a majority government in the next election." However, while that may be Canadians' desire, they are resigned to minority governments at least in the near term; three in four Canadians "expect to see more minority governments in the future" (57.0% agreed; 17.6% somewhat agreed).

Canadians were divided about the effectiveness of a minority House, with nearly half saying that the next session of Parliament would be effective (15.2%) or somewhat effective (34.2%), and four in ten saying it would be ineffective (23.4%) or somewhat ineffective (18.2%). Nine percent were unsure.

On the subject of which federal party leader Canadians thought had the personal skills necessary to manage a minority government, Harper ranked first at 32.8%, compared to 23.0% for Ignatieff, 14.4% for Layton and 5.9% for Duceppe. Harper leads Ignatieff by noticeable margins across Canada, except in Quebec. In Quebec, Ignatieff is seen as best qualified to manage a minority government by 29.7% of Quebecers, followed by Jack Layton with 19.1% and Stephen Harper at 18.1%.

To chat about this poll join the national political online chat at Nik on the Numbers. The detailed tables and methodology are posted on our website. You can also register to receive automatic polling updates.

Tune into the Nanos Report - a new, weekly, public affairs show on CPAC. The 30 minute program airs every Sunday at 10:30 am and 8:00 pm (all times Eastern) touching on politics and business issues.

Methodology
Nanos conducted a random telephone survey of 1,002 Canadians, 18 years of age and older, between September 3rd and September 11th. A survey of 1,002 Canadians is accurate to within 3.1 percentage points, plus or minus, 19 times out of 20.

Expectation of Minority Government Question: Please tell me whether you agree, somewhat agree, somewhat disagree or disagree with the following statement: I expect to see more minority governments in the future.

Agree 57.0%
Somewhat agree 17.6%
Somewhat disagree 4.7%
Disagree 17.1%
Unsure 3.6%

Preference for Majority Government Question: Please tell me whether you agree, somewhat agree, somewhat disagree or disagree with the following statement: I would like to see a party win a majority in the next election.

Agree 68.7%
Somewhat agree 11.9%
Somewhat disagree 4.1%
Disagree 11.0%
Unsure 4.3%

Effective Management Question: Regardless of your personal voting preferences, which of the following federal party leaders has the personal skills to effectively manage a minority government?

Stephen Harper 32.8%
Michael Ignatieff 23.0%
Jack Layton 14.4%
Gilles Duceppe 5.9%
Elizabeth May 3.3%
Unsure 20.6%

Effectiveness of Next Session Question: Do you think the next session of parliament will be effective, somewhat effective, somewhat ineffective or ineffective?

Effective 15.2%
Somewhat effective 34.2%
Somewhat ineffective 18.2%
Ineffective 23.4%
Unsure 9.1%

Fall Election Question: Thinking of the current political situation would you prefer that a federal election is called this fall or that we do not have a federal election this fall?

Prefer fall election 22.6%
Do not want fall election 72.6%
Unsure 4.8%

 

http://mail.google.com/mail/?zx=1kucb9iqmfakp&shva=1#inbox/1240ee79513201be

Sean in Ottawa

New poll:

The EKOS poll, released Thursday exclusively to the CBC, indicates the Conservatives have 36 per cent support nationally, followed by the Liberals with 29.7 per cent. The New Democratic Party got the support of 13.9 per cent of poll respondents, the Green Party 10.5 per cent, and the Bloc Québécois 9.8 per cent.

janfromthebruce

You know, when I look at questions the pollsters these days are asking, such as "what do you think about minority vs. majority govts, it leads me to think of "push polling". It's like they are softening folks up to "think majority govt", and the more times folks are asked this question - with visions of the liberal gong show in their heads, Iggy libs itching for an unwanted election, Harper's non-stop confidence votes, and not seeing any other possible recourse out of the constant "stupidity in Ottawa" (because options like confidence votes should be taken off the table as a weapon of mass whipping, or electorial reform, or voting down something doesn't cause an election), folks just go for the easy (and led answer) - majority.

Thus, I would like to see the NDP - as a short term solution start talking about, private members bill, campaign on, non-confidence does not trigger an election. Harper has completely misused "votes of confidence" for partisan reasons rather than for "good goverance" and there needs to be accountability there. Those are my thoughts.

Stockholm

Jan, that was all last year. Since the crisis in December, Harper has stopped making everything a confidence measure. Its not the Tories who keep having confidence votes - now its the Liberals.

I go back to my preference for CONSTRUCTIVE non-confidence votes.

janfromthebruce

Well did the ways & means confidence vote have to be confidence, since it was already a part of the budget? EI yes, but not sure of the other, so I don't agree with you on the confidence piece.

And as you know, I agree with the CONSTRUCTIVE non-confidence votes.

Sean in Ottawa

On the push polling-- consider this: both the CBC used to have political panels with all the Liberals, Cons, NDP and BQ and the CTV used to have panels with the Liberals Cons and NDP. We complained about the treatment and unfairness at times in terms of how those panels were handled. This was the format for most of the discussions.

In the last several months both outlets have changed the format: now it is predominantly a Liberal Conservative discussion without anyone else there. Even the Outremont coverage on CTV was between the second place Liberals and the third or fourth place Conservatives (can't remember their placement in Outremont. The First place NDP was not invited to the "panel." The two biggest broadcasters have decided that we will now have a majority government and have manufactured a conversation around that and the other parties no longer exist. Of course if there is a scandal in one of those parties they would cover it but otherwise there is little point. The multi-party panels with three or more people are still done but they are much more rare than they were just a year ago. To assume that this change which has been going on since Duffy went to conservative heaven, does not affect the polls is naive to say the least.

I assume Duffy who was partisan did not want to go so far as not inviting the NDP anymore but the new guy did not need to pretend to be a journalist and is quite happy being a Con cheerleader. The CBC probably saw the CTV get away with it and have gone on to cheerleading for the Liberals a little more shamelessly than before.  I remember during the election the CTV first tried this approach on their News station- that day -- while people were still voting they went to a Conservative and a Liberal format and got away with it. and a few months later adopted this for most discussions-- it is also cheaper as well as suiting the propaganda. Eventually, I suppose the CBC will learn that it can get away with two Liberals and the CTV can get away with two Conservatives. Canadians won't complain-- unless people start phoning and calling the media on this-- giving them about 50 calls at the end of each show where they do not even invite more than the two parties, this will get worse.

Perhaps we could agree on Babble to call these two outlets whenever we see an interview of just a Liberal and Con?

no1important

Iggy must be a huge disappointment to many Liberals. I thought he was better than Rae and would be a lot better than Dion and boy, was I wrong.

recent polls have showed Harper gaining in Toronto, ahead in Ontario and now gaining again in Quebec. That does not bode well at all for the Liberals and I will not rule out a small con majority either.

I wonder if there are anyone planning on a way to get rid of Iggy before the next election? Could Iggy be forced out? Would Iggy step down? I have a feeling he will run in the next election though and it will not bode well for the Libs.

Would the Libs do any better with Bob Rae? or is the myth how he destroyed Ontario still stuck to him?

KenS

Their knives aren't that sharp. Even an absolutely doomed leader like Dion has to run his course to the inevitable.

remind remind's picture

Quote:
Perhaps we could agree on Babble to call these two outlets whenever we see an interview of just a Liberal and Con?

I agree Sean,  we need to call frequently and loudly, when they leave out the voices of millions of Canadians.

Sean in Ottawa

We know they are partisan -- but they also care about the numbers of viewers for their advertisers even if they don't give a fig for the viewers themselves -- so if you say you won't watch their crap and there are enough people calling to say that then they might revert to inviting everyone and just being biased in front of the group instead of editing out entire points of view by restricting who appears.

Question: have other people noticed this change? I realize it is not absolute-- there are some multi-party panels but they are now much more rare than the suddenly more common two party Liberal-Troy converssations.

And the CBC no longer mentions how the other parties are doing in their newscast-- now they just say what the Liberals and Consa re doing and leave off the others.

 

Sunday Hat

In light of EKOS, let me revise my tentative conclusions:

 

- There may be a backlash against the NDP decision not to force an election - but probably not.

- There may be a backlash against Liberals for trying to force an election.

- Ignatieff's in Dion territory.

- The NDP may have done Ignatieff the biggest favour of his life.

 

Stockholm

Just out of curiosity has ANYONE (hello all of you people lurking in this thread) actually met anyone in real, living colour who is pissed off at the NDP for not voting for the Liberals non-confidence motion and plunging Canada into a snap election?

I can honestly say that while I have met one or two people who have teased the NDP a bit about switching strategy and going back on always voting non-confidence etc..., I have met ZERO people who are genuinely mad that the NDP isn't forcing an election. Liberals i know are all releived that there won't be an election and that Layton is talking Ignatieff off the ledge.

Sean in Ottawa

I am on the line with CBC. The newscast this am on their radio was World report at 8:00 am-- only mention of numbers for Liberals and Cons. I had to go to their website to get numbers for the three other parties.

I called the Ottawa radio newsroom and they told me to call audience relations at 1-866-306-4636 and that there were guidelines for poll reporting.

I called and spoke with Sylvie who promised to get an answer back to me on what those guidelines are and a response on why comment that this was not democratic and not good reporting-- that the point was we have a minority because there are more than two parties and that the media should not be manufacturing a majority be editing out our choices from the national conversation.

There is no point calling about general perceptions of bias but if youo can point to a specific program and call soon after this might be effective. If we all did it they would notice. You have the number-- next time you see biased reporting or a situation where all parties should have been included but were not you can use the number-- (when connected you get to speak to a real person as well.)

Sean in Ottawa

Stockholm exactly -- this is what I am saying. It was also true though that those pissed at the Liberals for not forcing an election were also not likely Liberal potential supporters either. No partisans of any party will be upset with them for avoiding an election they will lose and if you hate this government you won't be upset with someone avoiding an election that will only return them at least as strong as they were.

Next time the Liberals act sensibly- we should not criticize them for that especially since it is that criticism not what we are doing now that is biting us in the butt.

We should also come out and be direct about this-- say that we will vote down the Cons as soon as it is clear that they could be defeated in a general election but not before. People will respect that because they know its true anyway and are not respecting politicians for pretending otherwise. Any legislation that we support can be brought back-- only with a 45 day delay (house can be called back right away to vote on it). Only something like the EI bill that can't even wait 45 days justify postponing an election that we could win. So the point with the exception of that one vote is that the Cons would win so let's behonest about that.

Sunday Hat

I think the message that Jack's saying ("People want Parliament to work. No one wants an election.") is where most people are at right now.

However, there was (is) a danger that Jack's sanctimony about the Liberals and their voting record over the last six months, combined with the belief (in some quarters) that the NDP is avoiding an election because they lack funds, leads people to conclude "The NDP is just like the rest. Self-serving politicians who put themselves first."

The former seems to be what people are hearing. Jack was helped by the fact that Ignatieff imploded this week. It's hard to tell the story that everyone should rally behind the Liberals and head to the polls when Iggy himself likely doesn't want one.

 

Sean in Ottawa

I think both messages are out there. We need to learn from this because the second was preventable. the only way to deal with this is to be very direct and honest about it- admit the mistake and move on. It is not a big mistake and some humbleness would look good on Jack.

 

Chester Drawers

The Bloc, LPC and NDP absolutely require the subsidy to survive.  The Bloc raised less money in donations than they received in subsidy and they need it to run the party.  The Liberals and NDP are using the subsidy to pay down debt and run their party office.  The subsidy for the Conservatives is pure gravy and is going to be used for pre-writ advertizing.  Our riding alone has raised over $180,000 for the party and EDA since Jan 1.   I know that during the coalition another $50,000 came in in less than three weeks out of the riding.

The possibility of an election scares the shit out of them.  A vast majority of the three opps candidates have yet to get back their 60% election refund and some LPC ridings didn't even qualify for the refund.

Money talks and the three opps know that they do not have the funds to mount much of an election fight either pre-writ or dropped writ.  Their principles have been thrown out for financial expediency.

The Bloc know they will survive with a significant number of ridings, the NDP I believe will lose seats to the Liberals as the soft centerleft voters will migrate.  I think Jack has the most to lose in an election and he's trying to survive to fight another day.

Chester Drawers

PS The average size of donation was $100.  Only 10% was the max allowable amount.

Sean in Ottawa

I wonder how well most ads work. I suspect the quality of the ad is more important than the frequency it runs so it is possible to run a better campaign with less.

 

Sean in Ottawa

I wonder how well most ads work. I suspect the quality of the ad is more important than the frequency it runs so it is possible to run a better campaign with less.

Sean in Ottawa

I would have added something to the other thread but I want SCBC to have the last word there-- seems an appropriate post to end it with --maybe a mod can close that one there.

KenS

Chester Drawers wrote:
PS The average size of donation was $100.  Only 10% was the max allowable amount.

Actually, 10% of donations being the max is quite high, for all parties and for the Conservative Party also.

janfromthebruce

Sean, I dont watch TV much so when you see something like that - put a post up right away with the number and what the complaint is. Thus babblers, if they choose can phone in and complain. thanks

remind remind's picture

I agree Jan.

madmax

 

Tucked away in the bottom of this article on Ignatieffs Confidence motion

 

 

Liberals are vowing they will not support the government in future confidence motions, leaving the government on uncertain ground in the months ahead.

"If there are confidence votes to be taken, we will be voting no," Liberal House Leader Ralph Goodale said.

The vote came on a day when a new poll showed little change in voters' preferences. The Angus Reid/Toronto Star poll showed the Conservatives at 37 per cent, Liberals at 27 per cent, NDP at 17 per cent, Bloc Quebecois at 11 per cent and Greens at 6 per cent.

The poll of 1,000 Canadians was done Tuesday and Wednesday and is considered accurate within 3.1 per cent, 19 times out of 20.

 

 

 

 

remind remind's picture

Wow, so much for the 13% outlier for the NDP. Seems they are still polling around what they got last year at election time.

Thanks madmax!

Bookish Agrarian

Where's Buddy I want to be taunted about a 11 point spread.  I want it to be really good, like something out of Monty Python and the Holy Grail.

Stockholm

I've gotta hand it to Angus Reid, they always seem to have the most realistic numbers. In BC they had a low single digit lead for the BC Libs over the NDP while everyone else had Campbell running way with it.

These numbers put everyone within 1% of what they got in the last election - whihc sounds about right.

Forgive me for gloating - but Greens at 6% Embarassed and that's probably still an overestimate!

Sean in Ottawa

Ok I admit it I commissioned that poll just for you!

 

Sean in Ottawa

Of course we had to change the prompt for the Greens from the so called Greens to the God damned Greens while the poll was still in the field -- do you think it would affect the result?

janfromthebruce

thanks Sean, you're the best.

Stockholm

or maybe the prompts was the Chartreuse Party!

Sean in Ottawa

No, the chartreuse party is only polling at 0.3% and I think they only get half that in the election becuase they can never get the vote out becuase half of them are colour blind and the other half can't spell the party name. Perhaps you are thinking of the turquoise party-- kinda greenish blue... or the Purple Colour party. Them PCs are gonna make a comeback some day.

Then there is the rainbow party. They claim that any party that associates itself with only one colour is colourist. Now this party is already getting some flack because there are folks who say they are distracting from other parties who have long track records supporting equal human rights for all Canadians but these guys just picked the rainbow colour because it was pretty, went with their entire wardrobes and because they could not decide on a single colour. Their president was heard saying "All the good colours are taken already and the NDP has even taken a shitty colour (brown) with a cruddy colour orange (what goes with that?) and then changed their minds so they can make it orange and whatever colour they can make it look good with."Some members of the rainbow party were heard saying that there were already thousands of cars with rainbows on them and maybe they would vote for the rainbow party before realizing that we really don't represent them.

 

a lonely worker

Sean in Ottawa wrote:

I am on the line with CBC. The newscast this am on their radio was World report at 8:00 am-- only mention of numbers for Liberals and Cons. I had to go to their website to get numbers for the three other parties.

I called the Ottawa radio newsroom and they told me to call audience relations at 1-866-306-4636 and that there were guidelines for poll reporting.

 

Thanks for doing this Sean.

 

I used to do it as well with the "At Issue" panel until one day I received a response from the National's Director stating that my complaint was without merit since their no longer existed a "left" and a "right" in Canada only differences in opinion over strategy.

 

This comment left me fuming and I simply stopped watching it. Now that others have started rasing these types of issues I and hopefulyy many others will as well.

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