Polling thread, the non-election edition

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Buddy Kat

Scott Piatkowski wrote:

Oh look, a nine point spread between the NDP and Greens. I'm sure that our good Buddy will explain to us why this means that the NDP should be worried.

 

If your referring to the Angus Reid poll it's only a eight point spread between nDP and Greens. Only other thing for the nDP to worry about is the trend , which shows the nDP losing more than 2 full percentage points since the last election and the Greens gaining almost 2 full percentage points. A trend that seems to be occuring in all polls.

 

 

 

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AkM5eyN8ytI&feature=user

janfromthebruce

Buddy Kat - what a load of hogwash.

Stockholm

But then you have to apply the special Green formula to any polling results. Whatever they have the so-called greens at simply divide by 2 and you get their likely proportion of the vote in the next election. 10% = 5%, 8% = 4%. It works every time.

Sean in Ottawa

Stockholm wrote:

But then you have to apply the special Green formula to any polling results. Whatever they have the so-called greens at simply divide by 2 and you get their likely proportion of the vote in the next election. 10% = 5%, 8% = 4%. It works every time.

That's wishful thinking on your part and there is no guarantee that it will work-- a variety of factors influence what happens to the Green vote.

They are also called the Green party -- the so-called in front of it not only is annoying-- even for those who do not support the Greens-- it also diminishes you who appear less than credible- more like a blind cheerleader than a pundit or even a thinking supporter.

I don't think there is anyone anywhere that woudl not take Anythign you say about the Greens without a truckload of salt and a complete context-- so why don't you give up the campaign? It is more than tedious to have you try to answer every post that has the word Green in it with the same old insult we have already heard before. If you consider the definition of trolling this is it-- provocation without any point to be made. this is supposed to be a board open to diverse opinions -- I have no idea why you get to make fun of the name of a political party almost every day and not get called on it-- it sidetracks the board into a pile of venom-filled dung between you and a couple Green supporters can you give it a rest????

Stockholm

OK, ok you've made your point. Jeez, i guess Mt. Vesuvius decided to erupt. If it bothers you so much, I'll stop putting pre-fixes in front of the name of that party. I have called them that because IMHO they are bunch of charalatans and who are about as "green" as a field of astroturf and they try to exploit the word "green" because its a word that has a lot of positive associations. They can call themselves "green" if they want. To me they will always be dark brown! I resent them thinking that all they have to do is appropriate the word "green" and then suddenly we are supposed to believe that they are ipso-facto, the last word in environmentalism.

Now, i supposed you could ask that I be more equal opportunity and start calling the Liberals, the so-called Liberals since their record has never been particularly liberal - and if i was a rightwing true believer i might call the Conservatives "so-called conservatives". and since the NDP is not particularly "New" we could say the so-called NEW democratic party.

So, I'll let it go to save time - but it will always be the "so-called Green party" to me whether I actually type out the words or not.

Its pretty clear that Green support is almost always grossly exagerrated in polls for reasons that are too numerous to list. Look at the last BC provincial election, before the writ was dropped it was 15%, 16%, 15%, 16%, sometimes even 17% - then the votes get counted and BOOM 8%. Notice the pattern?

Sean in Ottawa

They have fewer resources to maintain a campaign and are considered no-hope candidates. This does nto say anythign good about our electoral process if this is the reason for a frequent drop off in their support (not universal as you suppose as I have seen times when their support is fairly constant). However, many parties face the same hurdle and then one election suddenly overcome it. (Ask Manning). You cannot presume this will never happen.

It is reasonable to say their support is traditionally soft but that may not always be so and to try to come up with a formula is insulting and wrong. It is fien for you to say you think this time they will only get half but you are advancing this like it is some kind of universal statistical fact that can be applied for ever more. One day they might just surprise you. Elections are funny things-- it is risky business predicting a current one never mind trying to come up with formulas for future ones.

madmax

Chester Drawers wrote:

The poison pill will be the voter subsidy.  I believe a motion from the Cons is coming on that as a money confidence bill.  The $1.95 per vote which the Libs, Dippers and Bloc cannot afford to lose, will have to vote against it.  An election over a $1.95 luxury for the parties when many have been bitten by the recesion will not be seen well by the public.  Either way the Cons win, get the other parties to vote in favor of losing the subsidy or force the election and not be seen as causing it.  This has been in the works since the 2008 convention in Winnipeg.

This script falls very much in line with what some Conservative Riding members in my region have indicated. They will campaign on the $1.95 and if they force the government to fall over it, it is very clever.  For the other parties not to see this coming, they would have to be wearing blinders.  It is a populist measure that people can relate to.  Regardless of the other arguments and monies that are subsidized by the government, it is this measure that will be attacked.  The smartest opposition party will be the one ready to deal with it when it comes up.  Can you imagine, after running up a tab in 2008, how far in the hole the opposition parties will be in after another election. And then the CPC (if they win a Majority) pull the plug on incoming funds.

To the public, public financing looks like a self serving endeavour and regardless of the arguments for it. Any party trying to justify it will be pushing a rock uphill with their nose.  The smaller parties need to think about getting funds directly from the people. 

Stockholm

Let's just put it this way. Last year, the Green party had a perfect storm, the environment (however you choose to define such a nebulous word) was the number one issue in the country bar none and the media had decided that EMay was a novelty and awarded her with tons of sycophantic, uncritical publicity - and she had her cozy deal with Dion.

Today, the environment has literally vanished as a political issue in Canada - all anyone cares about now is the recession (I ask myself, who would be Finance Minister in a Green party majority government???), Emay has been utterly invisible over the last few months apart from sqawking about how she demands to be in any hypothetical leaders debate. The media is starting to ridicule her. The fact that she says that her only goal is to get herself personally elected in SGI essentially send out the message that in the rest of the country green candidates will be 100% on their own.

IMHO, there is only one direction for the Green party to go in the next election - DOWN!

Sean in Ottawa

madmax wrote:

Chester Drawers wrote:

The poison pill will be the voter subsidy.  I believe a motion from the Cons is coming on that as a money confidence bill.  The $1.95 per vote which the Libs, Dippers and Bloc cannot afford to lose, will have to vote against it.  An election over a $1.95 luxury for the parties when many have been bitten by the recesion will not be seen well by the public.  Either way the Cons win, get the other parties to vote in favor of losing the subsidy or force the election and not be seen as causing it.  This has been in the works since the 2008 convention in Winnipeg.

This script falls very much in line with what some Conservative Riding members in my region have indicated. They will campaign on the $1.95 and if they force the government to fall over it, it is very clever.  For the other parties not to see this coming, they would have to be wearing blinders.  It is a populist measure that people can relate to.  Regardless of the other arguments and monies that are subsidized by the government, it is this measure that will be attacked.  The smartest opposition party will be the one ready to deal with it when it comes up.  Can you imagine, after running up a tab in 2008, how far in the hole the opposition parties will be in after another election. And then the CPC (if they win a Majority) pull the plug on incoming funds.

To the public, public financing looks like a self serving endeavour and regardless of the arguments for it. Any party trying to justify it will be pushing a rock uphill with their nose.  The smaller parties need to think about getting funds directly from the people. 

The smaller parties should call it what it is an abstain en masse. Then bring the government down later on another issue. They should not give this one to Harper as a campaign issue-- we are voting because the opposition thought their money was more important than other Canadians.

Harper will need another poison pill. If the people don't like it either then he can lose the election.

Stockholm

The Tories will have this as part of their platform in the next election regardless. I don't think they would try to push their luck by trying to obviously engineer an early election by replaying the events of last December.

SCB4

Tories will most likely bring about an election with their next budget -- no harm leaving the Liberals to squabble and fracture for a few more months.

Chester Drawers

You have to know that Harper never lets his future be dictated by others.  He is a master at predicting what others will do.   And by your reasoning Stockholm which I agree with, the coalition had nothing to do with the financial statement, but everything to do with the loss of the subsidy.

The Cons are going to bring this forth.

Stockholm

I think it had to do with both. But of course the Tories dropped the subsidy proposal almost immediately, yet the coalition continued.

It was kind of crazy for Harper to ever think that parties were ever going to vote to commit suicide. If Harper were smart (and he often isn't) he would just reduce the subsidy by 25% as opposed to eliminating it altogether.

Last November Harper goofed and let his future be dictated by others. He fucked up then and he is perfectly capable of fucking up in the future. If he was such a master of predicting what others would do, he wouldn't have done something so utterly stupid on every level.

Life, the unive...

And then there's Quebec. 

Buddy Kat

Oh my my the Greens are closing in even more now.

"The EKOS poll, released Thursday exclusively to the CBC, indicates the Conservatives have 36 per cent support nationally, followed by the Liberals with 29.7 per cent. The New Democratic Party got the support of 13.9 per cent of poll respondents, the Green Party 10.5 per cent".

Now it's only a 3.4% differance. Looks like the cons have plateaued

 

Buddy Kat

Oh my my the Greens are closing in even more now.

"The EKOS poll, released Thursday exclusively to the CBC, indicates the Conservatives have 36 per cent support nationally, followed by the Liberals with 29.7 per cent. The New Democratic Party got the support of 13.9 per cent of poll respondents, the Green Party 10.5 per cent".

Now it's only a 3.4% differance. Looks like the cons have plateaued

 

Buddy Kat

Oh my my the Greens are closing in even more now.

"The EKOS poll, released Thursday exclusively to the CBC, indicates the Conservatives have 36 per cent support nationally, followed by the Liberals with 29.7 per cent. The New Democratic Party got the support of 13.9 per cent of poll respondents, the Green Party 10.5 per cent".

Now it's only a 3.4% differance. Looks like the cons have plateaued

 

Stockholm

According the Leger the Greens are at 8% and falling and the NDP is at 17%...and of course Nanos who doesn't prompts anyone gets them at 4%! (which is probably generous).

Remember the old ads for long distance "its the next best thing to being there". My version is, if someone asks you who you're voting for say Green "its the next best thing to saying you are undecided or won't vote".

Since there is not likely to be an election this fall, we will have 4 byelections and the number of votes cast there will be greater than in any polls. I wonder whether there is any chance of the Greens doing better than a distant fourth in any of those ridings?

Scott Piatkowski Scott Piatkowski's picture

Buddy Kat wrote:
Oh my my the Greens are closing in even more now.

 

"The EKOS poll, released Thursday exclusively to the CBC, indicates the Conservatives have 36 per cent support nationally, followed by the Liberals with 29.7 per cent. The New Democratic Party got the support of 13.9 per cent of poll respondents, the Green Party 10.5 per cent".

 

Now it's only a 3.4% differance. Looks like the cons have plateaued

 

You can say that again.

Yes, I know the triple post was a mistake. It's just that you post this with every poll.
Do you have it stored as a file, so you can just cut and paste it every time (changing only the numbers)?

madmax

One thing that the Green Party doesn't have that the CPC, LPC, NPD and BQ have is the ability to affect and pass legislation and the ability to have a direct input into when the next election will occurr regardless of the polls.  I have noticed that of all the parties, the NDP pays the least attention to them, the LPC the most, and the CPC pay attention whenever they hover near that magic majority mark, then you see all their pundits show up in the forums.  From what I see, Buddy Kat is suffering from polling disease/addiction.  It doesn't affect the general public, but it is a plague upon pundits and partisan hacksTongue out 

SCB4

Just curious as to how this thread differs from the infinite polling thread. Is there a separate set of polling results that reveal which party is 'infinitely' preferable?Smile

Bookish Agrarian

No the other thread was an attempt to be nice to dial up users when this one hit the 100 mark, but people have kept posting when they shouldn't.  Just like I am doing right now.

remind remind's picture

No some people keep posting here even though it should have been closed.

Unionist

Not me!

 

Sean in Ottawa

It is alive until it is dead.

Buddy Kat

The comments I find funny..Laughing   I was kinda hoping I would have the last comment...and make it an easy referance of the 3.4 % differance. After todays confidence vote and the nDP seals their fate by extending ui to 1000's of conservative ui collectors who will probably look at them as suckers as opposed to a new party to vote for, I would expect the party to lose even more support to the Greens who seem to know that Layton is just playing the same game the other parties play. What is the nDP gonna do ...wait till they are at 37% ? and continue supporting the conservatives till then ? There looking as bad as the Libs.

 

Maybe they will abstain! I just can't bare anyone supporting the conservatives no matter what..we all know what they are about and there isn't one nice thing to say about them.

 

Buddy Kat

The comments I find funny..Laughing   I was kinda hoping I would have the last comment...and make it an easy referance of the 3.4 % differance. After todays confidence vote and the nDP seals their fate by extending ui to 1000's of conservative ui collectors who will probably look at them as suckers as opposed to a new party to vote for, I would expect the party to lose even more support to the Greens who seem to know that Layton is just playing the same game the other parties play. What is the nDP gonna do ...wait till they are at 37% ? and continue supporting the conservatives till then ? There looking as bad as the Libs.

 

Maybe they will abstain! I just can't bare anyone supporting the conservatives no matter what..we all know what they are about and there isn't one nice thing to say about them.

 

Buddy Kat

The comments I find funny..Laughing   I was kinda hoping I would have the last comment...and make it an easy referance of the 3.4 % differance. After todays confidence vote and the nDP seals their fate by extending ui to 1000's of conservative ui collectors who will probably look at them as suckers as opposed to a new party to vote for, I would expect the party to lose even more support to the Greens who seem to know that Layton is just playing the same game the other parties play. What is the nDP gonna do ...wait till they are at 37% ? and continue supporting the conservatives till then ? There looking as bad as the Libs.

 

Maybe they will abstain! I just can't bare anyone supporting the conservatives no matter what..we all know what they are about and there isn't one nice thing to say about them.

 

Buddy Kat

The comments I find funny..Laughing   I was kinda hoping I would have the last comment...and make it an easy referance of the 3.4 % differance. After todays confidence vote and the nDP seals their fate by extending ui to 1000's of conservative ui collectors who will probably look at them as suckers as opposed to a new party to vote for, I would expect the party to lose even more support to the Greens who seem to know that Layton is just playing the same game the other parties play. What is the nDP gonna do ...wait till they are at 37% ? and continue supporting the conservatives till then ? There looking as bad as the Libs.

 

Maybe they will abstain! I just can't bare anyone supporting the conservatives no matter what..we all know what they are about and there isn't one nice thing to say about them.

 

Buddy Kat

The comments I find funny..Laughing   I was kinda hoping I would have the last comment...and make it an easy referance of the 3.4 % differance. After todays confidence vote and the nDP seals their fate by extending ui to 1000's of conservative ui collectors who will probably look at them as suckers as opposed to a new party to vote for, I would expect the party to lose even more support to the Greens who seem to know that Layton is just playing the same game the other parties play. What is the nDP gonna do ...wait till they are at 37% ? and continue supporting the conservatives till then ? There looking as bad as the Libs.

 

Maybe they will abstain! I just can't bare anyone supporting the conservatives no matter what..we all know what they are about and there isn't one nice thing to say about them.

 

Sean in Ottawa

Would you mind editing this to not have 4 repeats or was thjis intentional?

SCB4

After all, this is not the infinite thread!

 

madmax

Repeats self when distressed.

The polling thread that  will never end....

Tongue out

Scott Piatkowski Scott Piatkowski's picture

I'm convinced that Buddy Kat is a spambot. I'll say that only once, however.

janfromthebruce

spambot, spambot, spambot. Buddy Kat is like one of those old chatty cathy dolls that gets stuck on its recording everytime you pull the thread - annoying & finally one just tosses it into the bottom of the toybox. Hmm, I have an idea....

Buddy Kat

I'm killing myself laughing here..but no I did not do that intentionaly...maybe it has to do with dialup as to delete a character takes about 10 seconds. Anyways I think the nDP would have a better chance getting votes and increased polling numbers if they just let 100's of thousands of Canadians UI run out. When that happens and they figure out that the conservatives have hung them out to dry then they may think of the nDP. Other than that Canadians will just take the money and run .

 

The supreme court ruled it's ok to spank your child ..well Canadians need a good spanking and this is the time to do it. I'll just press the post comment once and wait.....a long time.

Sunday Hat

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