Polling thread the pre-election edition

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remind remind's picture
Polling thread the pre-election edition
melovesproles

I agree.  The Ignatieff Liberals are completely disregarding their left flank, now they are boldly stating they would prefer another Harper government to a coalition with the NDP.  If the NDP can't inflict serious damage upon this incarnation of the Liberals they should be giving their heads a real long shake.

janfromthebruce

Great post over at progbloggs on Iggy so completely scrapping a possible coalition after an election. Keep in mind this would be true even if the libs won a minority. Sad day for democracy: Pample the Moose:

"So, responding to Harper's latest skillful bit of bait, Michael Ignatieff has declared he will never enter into a coalition government.

Delightful. In an era of perpetual minority governments, and deeply fragmented voter intentions, Ignatieff has decided that making a working parliament that actually reflects the spectrum of voter opinion is a bad idea.

If he wanted to alienate supporters of electoral reform and voters who actually think a Liberal-NDP coalition might be a good thing, he's done a bang-up job.

I wonder who the NDP and Green candidates are going to be in Guelph..."

Ditto for what he said. Sounds good to me.

NorthReport

 Because recruiting washed-up separatists always works so well

 

http://www2.macleans.ca/2009/06/11/because-recruiting-washed-up-separatists-always-works-so-well/

 

 

The NDP need to focus bigtime in Quebec presently to exploit this wonderful chance being thrown right in their face here.

Come on Mulcair: "Just Do It  Now" 

NorthReport
NorthReport

Scandales des commandites: la publication d'un livre reportée en catastrophe

 

http://www.cyberpresse.ca/actualites/quebec-canada/politique-canadienne/...

Holy smokes!  

Publication date: October 21st.

Ignatieff, are you totally nuts. Put it in reverse man, reverse.

This just keeps on getting worse and worse for the Liberals.

Of course there will be no election this year, but nevertheless, there are only so many body blows one can absorb before completely collapsing, and being called down for the count.

Policywonk

NorthReport wrote:

The only problem with the whole analysis, is that the NDP numbers have been in the 15% to 19% range for 70 Years and last year was NO different, with the Greens eating the LPC vote, while the NDP vote grew to their high threshold.

Except when it was over 40% (prior to and after the 1988 election) and under 10% through much of the '90s. Aside from the fact that the NDP has not been in existence for 70 years.

NorthReport

Pw

That quote above is from Madmax, not me, I guess I didn't post it clear enough.

janfromthebruce

NorthReport wrote:

Scandales des commandites: la publication d'un livre reportée en catastrophe

 

http://www.cyberpresse.ca/actualites/quebec-canada/politique-canadienne/...

Holy smokes!  

Publication date: October 21st.

Ignatieff, are you totally nuts. Put it in reverse man, reverse.

This just keeps on getting worse and worse for the Liberals.

Of course there will be no election this year, but nevertheless, there are only so many body blows one can absorb before completely collapsing, and being called down for the count.

I can't read French well enough to understand the article. Is their an available translation version? thanks

remind remind's picture

It is about the Sponship scandal, and the secrets of the Liberal Party from what I can gather.

janfromthebruce

remind wrote:
It is about the Sponship scandal, and the secrets of the Liberal Party from what I can gather.
thanks. More would be better but I get the drift.

bekayne

janfromthebruce wrote:

remind wrote:
It is about the Sponship scandal, and the secrets of the Liberal Party from what I can gather.
thanks. More would be better but I get the drift.

Here's the page translated, via Google Translate:

http://translate.google.com/translate?prev=hp&hl=en&js=y&u=http%3A%2F%2F...

Debater

melovesproles wrote:

I agree.  The Ignatieff Liberals are completely disregarding their left flank, now they are boldly stating they would prefer another Harper government to a coalition with the NDP.  If the NDP can't inflict serious damage upon this incarnation of the Liberals they should be giving their heads a real long shake.

According to the panel discussion on Power Play tonight, Greg Weston, Jennifer Ditchburn and Craig Oliver said that they don't think the NDP is doing very well in the polls right now.

Stockholm

the pundits also think the Liberals are facing catastrophe because they've lost 1% compared to two weeks ago. All it will take is for there to be one poll showing the Liberals and/or the NDP gaining some statistically insignificant 1% - and suddenly the new story line will be one of the rebirth and redemption and rising like a phoenix from the ashes and being the "comeback kid".

How many times do we all have to see this movie before we can guess every twist and turn in the plot.

Debater

Well it's certainly true that things can change, and hopefully we will see the Conservatives lose several points.

Policywonk

NorthReport wrote:

Pw

That quote above is from Madmax, not me, I guess I didn't post it clear enough.

Sorry, it wasn't clear.

NorthReport

 From previous thread

Quote:
Sounds like Liberal Talking points. Something the CBC has been good a framing.

The only problem with the whole analysis, is that the NDP numbers have been in the 15% to 19% range for 70 Years and last year was NO different, with the Greens eating the LPC vote, while the NDP vote grew to their high threshold.

The scenario I see is the GP vote dropping on Eday, the LPC vote going up, and the NDP going down a tad, unless, the general public decides that this is an election to get up and vote for.  If that occurs, the NDP could well go up in vote totals, but essentially the NDP vote and base have been static, barring the 1993 election, when they received 6%.

The Liberals may have a good campaign queued up and all the talking points and attack strategy.

But there is a good chance, that the LPC are going to completely missread the mood of the public and hand Harper a Majority.  And that is the buzz, that I am getting. The more the word election comes out, the worse things are going to get.

 

Madmax,

 

To a certain extent I agree with you.

 

I think Harper is going to squish Ignatieff just like a Dion bug. 

 

The NDP in the last election, and in the next election which will probably be next year, the Liberals aren't really suicidal are they,  have been, or are being handed golden opportunities. If the NDP does not exploit this political environment now, will they ever cut it? This slow but sure approach works some of the time, but just not quite sure it is going to work all of the time.

NorthReport

Interesting to see which pollster was the most accurate leading up to the last election on October 14, 2008.

 

And Angus Reid strategies it is

 

http://www.electionalmanac.com/canada/polls.php

West Coast Lefty

remind wrote:
It is about the Sponship scandal, and the secrets of the Liberal Party from what I can gather.

It's an over-hyped story about a forthcoming "tell-all" book on the sponsorship scandal by Benoit Corbeil, ex Director-General of the Quebec section of the LPC.  Corbeil is before the courts now, the publication date is being pushed back, the co-writer claims the publisher is distorting the contents of the book...it all sounds like much ado about nothing.  This story will have zero impact on the fall federal election.

bekayne

West Coast Lefty wrote:

remind wrote:
It is about the Sponship scandal, and the secrets of the Liberal Party from what I can gather.

It's an over-hyped story about a forthcoming "tell-all" book on the sponsorship scandal by Benoit Corbeil, ex Director-General of the Quebec section of the LPC.  Corbeil is before the courts now, the publication date is being pushed back, the co-writer claims the publisher is distorting the contents of the book...it all sounds like much ado about nothing.  This story will have zero impact on the fall federal election.

The book's co-written with Normand Lester, who was supposed to have dropped a "bombshell" during the 2006 election.

Debater

It will be interesting to see the next set of polls in Quebec after Harper's latest video about the separatists came out.  Will the Conservatives begin dropping again?

Chantal Hebert said on CBC a couple nights ago that she watched the video during lunchtime on french television earlier in the week with a group of francophones and said they were quite upset to say the least.  She predicted Harper may lose more seats in Quebec as a result.

Stockholm

I agree, and the thing is that the consequences go beyond Quebec. Voters in Ontario tend to regard it as a mark against a party when it is totally rejected in Quebec.

Debater

Yes, and historically Quebec is a kind of bellwether.  As I've said before it's not an exact science that happens in every election, but in most elections in modern history, those PM's who have little support in Quebec tend not to last very long (Eg.  Clark, Turner, Campbell, Martin).  It is those PM's who can win a lot of seats in Quebec (Trudeau, Mulroney, Chretien) who tend to become long-term PM's.  Usually the top federalist leader in Quebec is the one who wins the election.

Harper hasn't lost Ontario yet though - he is still tied with Ignatieff here so he is still in the game, but he is playing with fire in Quebec and his Quebec MP's are probably angry with Harper at having to face more backlash there from voters.  Speaking of Quebec Conservatives, Lawrence Cannon is one who may go down - the Liberals are nominating a candidate in Pontiac tomorrow and having finished a strong 2nd there last year, they may be able to take him out.  It will be a big blow to Harper to lose one of his only strong Quebec MP's.

janfromthebruce

And when did women become a "left-wing fringe group". Harper "like women". What a dork.

madmax

Policywonk wrote:

madmax (fixed) wrote:

The only problem with the whole analysis, is that the NDP numbers have been in the 15% to 19% range for 70 Years and last year was NO different, with the Greens eating the LPC vote, while the NDP vote grew to their high threshold.

Except when it was over 40% (prior to and after the 1988 election) and under 10% through much of the '90s. Aside from the fact that the NDP has not been in existence for 70 years.

   NDP support at 40% before and after the 1988 election? I think not.  Ed Broadbent was incredibly popular, but he personally far out led the NDP in popular support.  People often confuse and NDP approval rating with support and willingness to support.  Lots of people may have approved of the work of the NDP, but not vote for them. Approval ratings of the other parties can be lower, but at the end of the day, people plug their noses when its time to vote.  Ed Broadbent and the NDP misread both the question and the data.  Let alone the fact that the LPC cleverly championed against Free Trade, while being for it.

And the poll that matters is the one on EDay.  If you look at the NDP/CCF numbers over the past 70years, you will see that they remain within their traditional threshold.  

 

Parkdale High Park

madmax wrote:

Policywonk wrote:

madmax (fixed) wrote:

The only problem with the whole analysis, is that the NDP numbers have been in the 15% to 19% range for 70 Years and last year was NO different, with the Greens eating the LPC vote, while the NDP vote grew to their high threshold.

Except when it was over 40% (prior to and after the 1988 election) and under 10% through much of the '90s. Aside from the fact that the NDP has not been in existence for 70 years.

   NDP support at 40% before and after the 1988 election? I think not.  Ed Broadbent was incredibly popular, but he personally far out led the NDP in popular support.  People often confuse and NDP approval rating with support and willingness to support.  Lots of people may have approved of the work of the NDP, but not vote for them. Approval ratings of the other parties can be lower, but at the end of the day, people plug their noses when its time to vote.  Ed Broadbent and the NDP misread both the question and the data.  Let alone the fact that the LPC cleverly championed against Free Trade, while being for it.

And the poll that matters is the one on EDay.  If you look at the NDP/CCF numbers over the past 70years, you will see that they remain within their traditional threshold.  

 

I definitely recall the episode of Double Exposure with their parody of "Master of the House" (from Les Mis). The song is mostly about Chretien (I am da leader of da house, running my own show, I'll be even crazier than Pierre Trudeau), but Audrey McLaughlin also makes an appearance (Chretien: I'm the brand of Liberal saviour, Canada's been waiting for. Audrey: 38% says Audrey is the one that they adore).So that would have been around 1990, when Chretien became leader.

Alternately, Environics Focus Canada did a poll in 1989 (Q1)

PC: 28.4%

Liberal: 20.8%

NDP: 26.7%

Other: 20.3%

In Q1 1990 the NDP was still high, as a % of specified parties.

PC: 17%

NDP: 21%

Liberal: 28%

 

Note, there were a lot more undecideds (in this poll it looks like the Reform/future BQ supporters were pushed into "don't know/refused" rather than another party, which was at just 3%.

 

KenS

As sort of indicated by PolicyWonk, it was Ed Broadbent as preferred leader that achieved that 40% figure in the run-up to the 1988 election, not the NDP.

ottawaobserver

There was one poll in the summer of 1990 that had the NDP on top, perhaps even in the 40s.  It would have been after the Ontario election, and during the Oka crisis.  I remember the editorial cartoons.

Debater

KenS wrote:

As sort of indicated by PolicyWonk, it was Ed Broadbent as preferred leader that achieved that 40% figure in the run-up to the 1988 election, not the NDP.

Ed is a giant in the history of the NDP - no other NDP leader has been able to quite capture the same appeal and connection with the average Canadian that he did.

I was happy to volunteer for his comeback campaign in 2004.

Stockholm

Its funny how people say stuff like that about Broadbent now, but that's not how I remember people reacting to him back when he was actually leader. He became NDP leader in 1975 and was immediately treated as an object of dersion by the media as someone who couldn't hold a candle to past "titans" like Douglas and Lewis and who was seen as a loquacious, wooly academic with no common touch. He did reasonably well in the 1979 and 1980 elections - but was generally dismissed as a bit of a joke in those years and was left in the dust by Trudeau etc... he had a hard time in the early 80s and the party was split all over the place over the constitution and when the 1984 election was called the NDP was at 8.5% in the Gallup poll and it was widely expecrted that the party would be wiped off the map.

Broadbent performed very well in the 1984 election and then became extremely popular from 1985 to 1988 as the Liberals were stuck with Turner and Mulroney lost popularity.

All of this is to say that Broadbent was NDP leader for 14 years and for the first NINE of those years - he ewas widely regarded as a liability or a joke. He only really became popular at the very end. And, while some Liberals etc... now shed all these crocodile tears about how great Broadbent was and what a "shame" it is that today's NDP isn't the supposedly wonderful party it was under Broadbent. BULLSHIT! When Broadbent was leader, the Liberals LOATHED him. They denounced him at every turn and if the internet and blogs had existed 20 years ago - make no mistake about it, Liberal bloggers would be crapping on Broadbent at every turn.

Similarly, when Bob Rae led the ONDP, Liberals LOATHED him and called him every name in the book. I think just about every Liberal in Ontario played target practice using a poster of Bob Rae with a bull's ye in the middle. Of course once he joined the Liberal Party ALL OF A SUDDEN he became this great respected statesman etc...

10 or 15 years from now when Layton's reign as NDP leader is long over I can guarantee one thing: Liberal bloggers will be shitting on whoever the NDP leader will be at that time and they will all be wringing their hands about how the NDP was sooo much better when it was led by such a decent principled man like Jack Layton - a man they always really respected etc...

You heard it here.

adma

Stockholm wrote:
Its funny how people say stuff like that about Broadbent now, but that's not how I remember people reacting to him back when he was actually leader. He became NDP leader in 1975 and was immediately treated as an object of dersion by the media as someone who couldn't hold a candle to past "titans" like Douglas and Lewis and who was seen as a loquacious, wooly academic with no common touch. He did reasonably well in the 1979 and 1980 elections - but was generally dismissed as a bit of a joke in those years and was left in the dust by Trudeau etc... he had a hard time in the early 80s and the party was split all over the place over the constitution and when the 1984 election was called the NDP was at 8.5% in the Gallup poll and it was widely expecrted that the party would be wiped off the map.

Of course, who can forget the Air Farce's depiction: "Hi, I'm Ed Broadbent!"

KenS

Me.

[but then, I've never watched television... i only get it second hand]

bekayne

KenS wrote:

Me.

[but then, I've never watched television... i only get it second hand]

It worked better on radio

 

bekayne

The NDP hit 41% in the Gallup poll conducted between July 8th & 11th, 1987.

Policywonk

bekayne wrote:

The NDP hit 41% in the Gallup poll conducted between July 8th & 11th, 1987.

Yup, and I believe 40% also in early 1990 (and the Leader in 1990 wasn't Broadbent by the way). I don't recall the NDP slipping much below 30% until after the Gulf War began (actually the second Gulf War, the first being between Iran and iraq).

Sean in Ottawa

Question: Why has there been no speculation about Con MPs jumping to run as Liberals? At least a couple must be considering this. While it would be tough to get elected as a Liberal in those ridings (they are more likely to go BQ) they could have a better chance as Liberals than Cons. Liberals don't seem to have trouble with Con leftovers. There are a couple where there would be no point but not all of them.

Sean in Ottawa

Second question: why wouldn't the Liberals run ads saying with the Cons having irritated Quebec so much it would be risking national unity to return them to government-- even with a minority never mind a majority. If people think that way this could be a big problem for Harper. Imagine the effect of a majority Con government with nothing in Quebec-- a long shot but not impossible. It might be useful for the Liberals to run against that.

Centrist

Ipsos:

Con: 39% (+-0)

Lib: 30% (+2)

NDP: 12% (-2)

Green: 8% (-2)

BQ: 9%

Quote:
 If there's an election this fall, 54 per cent of Canadians would blame Ignatieff and the Liberals, while 35 per cent would blame Harper and the Conservatives.

Source: Ottawa Citizen

Will there be an imminent election? I'm starting to doubt it.

 

 

 

RedRover

Centrist wrote:

 

Ipsos:

Con: 39% (+-0)

Lib: 30% (+2)

NDP: 12% (-2)

Green: 8% (-2)

BQ: 9%

Quote:
 If there's an election this fall, 54 per cent of Canadians would blame Ignatieff and the Liberals, while 35 per cent would blame Harper and the Conservatives.

Source: Ottawa Citizen

Will there be an imminent election? I'm starting to doubt it.

 

I sure as hell hope not with numbers like that. 

I'm sure everyone will be quick to say it's just the Ipsos-skew again (read NorthReport), but we've been under 14 in at least one Ekos poll since June and others have us consistently under the number we got in the last election.

Not liking that potential basement (12-14%) and I'm certain that supporting Harper's budget on Friday is not going to help matters.

NorthReport

Another nail in the coffin for the Ignatieff Liberals.

What a useless bunch of has-beens the Liberal Party under Ignatieff has turned itself into. The NDP need to learn to weild the knife and cut their stupid Liberal-NDP umbillical cord once and for all.  

So people think that instead of supporting the government the NDP should force an election with these kind of polling numbers. My, my.

Yes Ipsos-Reid polling usually favour the Conservatives, but why don't we wait for Nanos polling which I presume will be out shortly. The one below on leadership is a disater for Ignatieff, and that is why I was suggesting Justin Trudeau take over. I suppose some people just like to keep losing elections. It's as if they wear it as a badge of honour. Not moi.

 

NorthReport

This is scary folks, real scary. Ignatieff has turned out to be a major dud, and Canadians know it.

And there are still people here saying Harper couldn't possibly win a majority.

Latest Nanos Poll

LEADERSHIP INDEX QUE.STION: As you may know, [Rotate] Michael Ignatieff is the leader of the federal Liberal Party, Stephen Harper is the leader of the Conservative Party of Canada, Jack Layton is the leader of the federal NDP, Gilles Duceppe is leader of the Bloc Quebecois and Elizabeth May is leader of the federal Green Party. Which of the federal leaders would you best describe as:

The most trustworthy leader
National (n=1,002)
Stephen Harper: 31%
Michael Ignatieff: 14%
Jack Layton: 14%
Gilles Duceppe: 8%
Elizabeth May: 8%
None of them/Undecided: 25%

The most competent leader
National (n=1,002)
Stephen Harper: 36%
Michael Ignatieff: 20%
Jack Layton: 11%
Gilles Duceppe: 7%
Elizabeth May: 2%
None of them/Undecided: 24%

The leader with the best vision for Canada's future
National (n=1,002)
Stephen Harper: 32%
Michael Ignatieff: 20%
Jack Layton: 15%
Gilles Duceppe: 4%
Elizabeth May: 4%
None of them/Undecided: 25%

Leadership Index Score
Stephen Harper: 99
Michael Ignatieff: 54
Jack Layton: 40
Gilles Duceppe: 19
Elizabeth May: 14

 

http://mail.google.com/mail/?tab=nm#inbox/123bb37a4e418dcd

RedRover

So Ipsos puts our New Democrats 12 percent and NorthReport's response is...

NorthReport wrote:

 Another nail in the coffin for the Ignatieff Liberals.

I think I found a clip of you from the last campaign North....

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oO5soX3iLtk&feature=fvw

You have lots of fight in you my friend.

 

Centrist

Nanos will be out with their figures tomorrow but their leadership poll out today reveals what the polling numbers are in the "Vote Profile" party numbers at the bottom of each page in the following document.

http://www.nanosresearch.com/library/polls/POLNAT-S09-T387.pdf

Nanos:

Sample Size: 1,002

Undecided: 19%

Con: 37.9% (+.4%)

Lib: 33.9% (+.5%)

NDP: 15.1% (+.3%)

Green: 4% (-.6%)

BQ: 9% (-.7%)

 

 

Stockholm

Shall we start making funeral arrangements for the so-called Green party?

NorthReport

RedRover wrote:

So Ipsos puts our New Democrats 12 percent and NorthReport's response is...

NorthReport wrote:

 Another nail in the coffin for the Ignatieff Liberals.

I think I found a clip of you from the last campaign North....

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oO5soX3iLtk&feature=fvw

You have lots of fight in you my friend.

 

Whenever the personal insults start flying you know your adversaries have already lost.

miles

nanos and ipsos show bad times for libs under iggy. now both polls could be the 20 when stated as 19 times out of 20 but what if they are accurate

NorthReport

Let's take a look at some of the most recent polls to dispel some of the silliness:

Pollster / Cons / Libs/ NDP / Bloc

Nanos / 38% / 34% / 15% / 09%

Ipsos / 39% / 30% / 12% / 09%

Str C / 35% / 30% / 14% / 12%

ARS / 33% / 32% / 19% / 09%

EKOS / 33% / 33% / 17% / 08%

 

janfromthebruce

NorthReport, do have the Green numbers - thanks in advance - I appreciate that.

RedRover

Stockholm wrote:

Shall we start making funeral arrangements for the so-called Green party?

Yeah...wrong issue at the wrong time.

People want jobs today, not clean air tommorrow.  Sad but true for the time being.

Doug

NorthReport wrote:

This is scary folks, real scary. Ignatieff has turned out to be a major dud, and Canadians know it.

And there are still people here saying Harper couldn't possibly win a majority.

 

No party can likely win a majority so long as the Bloc continues to do well in Quebec because in that case, the path to a majority is through winning almost all of Ontario. The Liberals aren't about to dislodge the Conservatives from non-Northern rural Ontario and the Conservatives aren't about to rout the Liberals in Toronto.

NorthReport

 

Don't be so sure Doug. Unless the NDP dispalce the Liberals in a lot of ridings, Harper is looking like he could pull off a majority.

 

Liberals though can read this and weep.

 

Back in the Quebec game

 

But recent poll numbers show the Conservatives have clawed their way back into contention in Quebec, or at least to the threshold of support they need to be the competitive federalist

alternative to the Bloc in 418, where seats start to fall very efficiently to the Conservatives once they cross 20% of the vote province-wide. Only two Conservative MPs come from outside 418, Christian Paradis, the Quebec lieutenant from right next door in the Monteregie, and Lawrence Cannon, the foreign affairs minister from Pontiac in the Outaouais region.

At one point last spring the only safe Conservative MPs were Maxime Bernier and a player to be named later. But over the summer, there has been a cautious revival of hope in the Conservative camp, as their poll numbers have gradually edged up to the critical 20% mark.

A recent Nanos poll for La Presse had the Bloc at 37.3%, the Liberals at 32.3% and the Conservatives on the bubble of where they need to be at 19.3%, with the NDP falling back into single digits at 8.9%.

 

http://www.nationalpost.com/todays-paper/story.html?id=1990980

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