Seat Projections (2)

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NorthReport
Seat Projections (2)

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NorthReport

Seat projections at the moment are not on. Just use some common sense. If the NDP is polling ahead of the Liberals the NDP will be getting more seats than the Liberals, 99 times out of 100.

Now that the NDP has overtaken the Liberals and might be moving in on the Tories, it stands to reason there will an increase in attacks on the NDP but not to worry as Jack and his team are on top of things and will handle anything that comes their way.  

The universe is unfolding as it should. 

NorthReport

Since when at these higher support levels is the NDP support less efficient than other parties? It could be but perhaps it is more efficient. As far as I know not one pundit foecast this rise in NDP support, so that tells me at least 99% of the stuff that is out there has no basis in fact. It's all propaganda or just unawareness.

 

Sean in Ottawa

I think the NDP vote is more concentrated and efficient at these numbers than the Liberal-- I suspect if these numbers do hold up that will be the shocker

ghoris

Fair enough, but let's not forget that Liberal support is pretty concentrated too. 90% of Western Canada, rural and francophone Quebec, and vast swaths of rural Ontario are electoral wastelands for the Grits. In fact, I would say that outside of Fortress GTA and parts of Atlantic Canada, they are not registering particularly high levels of support.

Policywonk

Sean in Ottawa wrote:

I think the NDP vote is more concentrated and efficient at these numbers than the Liberal-- I suspect if these numbers do hold up that will be the shocker

We'll see. I remember 1993 and wondering where the Progressive Conservatives would win seats, and it turned out there weren't very many places I could think of. The Reform Party had almost the same percentage of popular vote and almost got enough seats to be Official Opposition.

I think we need the Liberals to keep enough seats, especially in Ontario, to help prevent a Conservative majority. If they test Turner's minimum and the Bloc were to lose more than half their seats, we would have to approach 100 seats to prevent that. Unless things also go crazy in Ontario, even with a big breakthrough in Quebec, I can't see us getting much more than 70 odd. There just aren't enough available seats in the rest of the country.

NorthReport

The NDP is surging, has the momentum, and nobody knows where it is going right now, so the NDP needs to go after every single seat in the country. For all we know, the Liberal vote may totally collapse, which could result in an NDP majority government.

ghoris

NorthReport wrote:

Seat projections at the moment are not on. Just use some common sense. If the NDP is polling ahead of the Liberals the NDP will be getting more seats than the Liberals, 99 times out of 100. 

Not necessarily. In the 1975 Ontario election, the Grits bested the NDP by more than 5% in the popular vote, but finished third in the seat count. In 1989 in Alberta, the Liberals outpolled the NDP 28.7 to 26.3 but won only half the number of seats of the NDP. In the 1990 Manitoba election, the NDP and Liberals basically tied in the popular vote (28.8 for the NDP to 28.2 for the Grits) but the NDP won 20 seats to the Liberals' 7. Nova Scotia, 2003: the Grits edged the NDP in the popular vote count by 0.5%, but won fewer seats.

Those are just a few examples. The point is that it all depends how the vote is distributed and I would say that a popular vote tie (or even a small NDP lead) will likely still result in the Grits having an edge in the seat count.

I agree with you, though, that if the NDP's momentum lasts to election day and we see a huge spike in NDP support, particularly in Quebec, the current seat projection models will be of little use.

Edited to add: someone below reminded me of some recent federal examples too. In 1993, the Tories' 16% was good for a whopping 2 seats. Reform got only 2 or 3 points more than the Tories but elected 50 more MPs. The NDP got less than half of the votes the PCs got and still salvaged 9 seats. Similarly, in 1997, the Tories and Reform tied in the popular vote but Reform won three times as many seats as the PCs. The NDP got more seats than the Tories with roughly 8 percent less of the popular vote.

NorthReport

Liberals are already hemorrhaging in Quebec and BC, so it may only be a matter of time before they completely collapse. For all we know it is already happening. Liberals have dropped 4% or 5% in the Nanos polling in the last few days, and are now polling lower than their 2008 election results.

 

[quote]What the NDP surge means

 

However, the NDP surge has added an entirely new dynamic.

The first casualty is Michael Ignatieff's Liberal party. For the most part, Ignatieff has run a solid campaign. But relentless Conservative attack ads designed to portray him as an arrogant carpetbagger - as well as his own inexperience - have taken their toll.

The polls point to that. So do my own unscientific soundings.

"Ignatieff's trying to be more approachable but doesn't come across as warm," undecided voter Gilbert Meyer told me in Toronto. "I'm not sure I trust him," said Rena Kathy, another Toronto voter.

"There's something on a gut level that doesn't sit right with me about Michael Ignatieff," Corrine Lunn, a bakery owner on Vancouver Island, confided.

"Is it true that he's an American?" retired mechanic Louis Mercado asked me in the Vancouver suburb of Surrey. "I heard that on TV. If he's an American, I won't vote for him."

Layton, by contrast, has had a relatively free ride. As a result, the impression of him at the doorstep is far more positive.

The most common refrain I heard about Layton from those not planning to vote NDP was: Right leader; wrong party.

That can change.

In Ontario, for example, many non-Conservatives vote Liberal only because they believe the NDP can't win government. When Layton says, as he did Thursday, that the NDP's increased popularity in Quebec could affect its standing in Ontario, he is right.

The pollster Ekos calculates that the NDP is the second choice of most Liberal voters across the country. It also says that when first- and second-place preferences are combined, the New Democrats outscore all other parties.

In simple terms, this means that if the Liberals totally collapse, Layton - like then New Democrat Bob Rae in Ontario 21 years ago - could theoretically win government.

Alas for Layton, there is no sign yet of a total Liberal collapse. Indeed, the NDP surge could end up benefiting Harper.

In some Quebec ridings the movement of Bloc voters to the NDP could fracture the anti-Harper vote just enough to let Conservatives win. Similar results could happen in Ontario.

The Layton surge might allow, say, NDP candidate Peggy Nash in the Toronto riding of Parkdale-High Park to finally edge out Liberal Gerard Kennedy.

But in another close Toronto riding, Don Valley West, NDP popularity could eat into the vote of Liberal incumbent Rob Oliphant just enough for Conservative John Carmichael - who ran second in 2008 - to win.

British Columbia, with its tradition of New Democrats versus all others, is even more complicated.

Still, there's something going on here. Ekos calculates that if an election were held now, the Liberals and New Democrats combined - even without Bloc support - would have more seats than first-place finisher Harper.

That would dramatically change the political calculations around any possible, post-election, anti-Conservative coalition. It would also raise the possibility - still slim - that in such a coalition, Layton might not be the junior partner.

 

http://www.thestar.com/article/979097--walkom-what-the-ndp-surge-means[/quote]

NorthReport

NDP rise creates new political math, with possible impact on Tory majority hopes

 

 

 

Layton shot back while campaigning in Toronto: "We won't give up. We will continue our efforts to demonstrate that people have a real choice."

All federal parties appear worried that they might pay a political price if the NDP continues its rise in the polls

http://www.winnipegfreepress.com/special/federal-election/conservatives-....

NorthReport

The fact that Jack Layton is doing very welll in the trust and vision leadership areas, might be telling us the NDP surge in support is solid, and combined with Friday's heavy advance poll voting, could be indicating good news for the NDP. 

samuelolivier

The what if game

What if the NDP trend is getting even stronger and the NDP is 1st in BC.
What if the NPD got 2 candidates elected in Alberta.
What if the NDP keeps its Western Artic seat and win also the Nunavut riding.
What if the NDP continues its rising in the polls in both Saskatchewan and Manitoba.
What if the Lib vote collapses in Ontario and goes mostly to the NDP.
What if the NDP is really number 1 in Quebec and score about 25-30 candidates elected.
What if NDP got a 2nd MP front NFL and wins all potential seats in NS.

This would mean a potential 85-105 NDP seats in total.

samuelolivier

The what if game

What if the NDP trend is getting even stronger and the NDP is 1st in BC.
What if the NPD got 2 candidates elected in Alberta.
What if the NDP keeps its Western Artic seat and win also the Nunavut riding.
What if the NDP continues its rising in the polls in both Saskatchewan and Manitoba.
What if the Lib vote collapses in Ontario and goes mostly to the NDP.
What if the NDP is really number 1 in Quebec and score about 25-30 candidates elected.
What if NDP got a 2nd MP front NFL and wins all potential seats in NS.

This would mean a potential 85-105 NDP seats in total.

Incorrect

EKOS seat projections for April 21st. These seem to be in line with the recent voter intention surveys that show strong support for the NDP.

CON-134

LIB-82

NDP-60

BQ-32

http://www.ekospolitics.com/wp-content/uploads/seat_projection_april_21_2011.pdf

Combined Liberal and NDP seats would be 142 compared to the Conservatives' 134. It's game over for Harper and company. They can enjoy the election night 'victory', but that will be the about it.

NorthReport

It is way premature to be projecting seat totals.

Malcolm Malcolm's picture

NorthReport wrote:

The fact that Jack Layton is doing very welll in the trust and vision leadership areas, might be telling us the NDP surge in support is solid, and combined with Friday's heavy advance poll voting, could be indicating good news for the NDP. 

 

Nik Nanos (of all people) was making that very point on TV yesterday.  Apparently Layton leads on the trust issue (at the edge of the margin of error IRC).

Sean in Ottawa

I guess I need to clarify-- I wrote a long post at the end of the last seat projection thread.

I said upthread the NDP may be more concentrated and efficient than the Liberal. I did not mean by much. I suspect that the Liberals may well retreat in to some strongholds and even at lower numbers be very efficient. The Liberals I think (I realize this is a feeling only) are likely holding very strong in their best ridings outside Quebec and collapsing everywhere else particularly in NDP ridings. This could fool people about the actual seat count. The NDP as well flatlines in places and does not lose extra votes in many places-- this gives me the idea that the NDP as well may very well be efficient.

It would not surprise me to see the seat count report the Liberals and the NDP both being very efficient. The Cons very likely could pick up some close seats in Ontario from the Liberals-- maybe as many as 15 and they could maybe even hold on to what they have in Quebec due to vote splitting-- but they could lose more than that number elsewhere-- mostly to the NDP.

We might see some vote splits helping the Liberals in BC in the ridings the NDP were third-- it is possible the Liberals will hang on to a tight 3-way race with a much lower vote count as the NDP and Cons tighten.

Seat projects now look very dicey. I am thinking of doing a manual one in a couple days based on the more complex movements I don't think the mechanical formulas can pick up. Still the reason I have not so far is I am skeptical that there is enough information to do them.

Wilf Day

NorthReport wrote:
The NDP is surging, has the momentum, and nobody knows where it is going right now, so the NDP needs to go after every single seat in the country. For all we know, the Liberal vote may totally collapse, which could result in an NDP majority government.

Collapse is not necessary. The real key is turnout. Every surprise NDP victory, by-election or general, resulted from unexpected turnout.

If enough young people and discouraged voters turn out and vote NDP, it would transform this election.

Last time Canada had a 58.8% turnout. Back in 1984 and 1988 it was 75%, as it almost always was from 1957 onward. Even in 2006 it was 64.7%. But we can't expect a 16% jump in turnout overnight. Let's say 6%, to bring us back to 2006 levels. The UBC Forecaster cleverly has a line for swing from non-voters, so we can plug that swing in. (I know, forecasters don't take local races into account, but bear with me.)

Next, with the NDP bandwagon effect, let's suppose the Green vote of 6.8% last time drops back to historic levels, so half of it goes NDP.

About 34% of the Bloc vote has, by the last four polls, switched to the NDP.

In Quebec, at least 25% of the Liberal vote has already switched to the NDP, and falling.  We don't know how much will switch Canada-wide on May 2. Let's say 23%. Far from a collapse.

Then let's modestly say 1% of disillusioned Conservative voters stay home and another 1% vote NDP.

Result: 158 NDP, 134 Conservative, 15 Liberals, 1 independent. (The combination of the increased turnout and the swing from the Bloc wipes them out.)

Those 158 NDP MPs come from:

Quebec 63

Ontario 49

BC 17

Nova Scotia 8

Newfoundland and Labrador 5

New Brunswick 4

Manitoba 4

Saskatchewan 3

Alberta 2

Western Arctic and Nunavut 2

Who would the Quebec cabinet ministers be?

Arthur Cramer Arthur Cramer's picture

158 NDP MPs? Dream come true.

Oh wait a sec, I just woke up; Lol! But it is sure a great thought! Laughing

janfromthebruce

NDP will win more seats than Liberals — new predictions

themace.caToday’s polls show that the NDP has reached Liberal levels of support — EKOS has the two parties tied at 24.7% apiece, behind the Conservatives at 34.4%. What’s more, the distribution of NDP support is good — my model predicts that the NDP will win 81 seats to the Liberal’s 73.

 

KissLaughing

janfromthebruce

NDP will win more seats than Liberals — new predictions

themace.caToday’s polls show that the NDP has reached Liberal levels of support — EKOS has the two parties tied at 24.7% apiece, behind the Conservatives at 34.4%. What’s more, the distribution of NDP support is good — my model predicts that the NDP will win 81 seats to the Liberal’s 73.

 

KissLaughing

a lonely worker

Wow.

Not sure if I buy all the numbers janfromthe bruce. Especially the part about 16 seats for Manitoba and Saskatchewan or is it really shifting that much?

Have heard from a few people involved in Manitoba that its tough slogging in the campaign to take back Winnipeg North.

Meanwhile helped out Peggy Nash's campaign today and had really positive responses with the breakdown essentially being older / rich for the Liberals versus young / urban NDP. It will be tight either way which is what leads me to think that 81 seats would be quite difficult considering the battles to just take back traditionally supportive ridings.

 

 

 

janfromthebruce

Lonely worker - go to the link and read what the person who is doing the model suggests. Glad you are working on Nash's campaign!

Policywonk

janfromthebruce wrote:

NDP will win more seats than Liberals — new predictions

themace.caToday’s polls show that the NDP has reached Liberal levels of support — EKOS has the two parties tied at 24.7% apiece, behind the Conservatives at 34.4%. What’s more, the distribution of NDP support is good — my model predicts that the NDP will win 81 seats to the Liberal’s 73.

 

KissLaughing

How many do the other parties get each?

edmundoconnor

I so hope Nettie wins in SRB. Working on the campaign this week was a real privilege (I return to Hogtown tomorrow to work on YSW). There is something in the air, and the fact polls are going our way has shaken a lot of people off the fence into the orange camp, something I saw for myself when I was canvassing. Here's hoping Nettie is just one of several New Democrat MPs from Saskatchewan, come May 3.

Aristotleded24

edmundoconnor wrote:
Here's hoping Nettie is just one of several New Democrat MPs from Saskatchewan, come May 3.

Churchill River sounds like it is riding the Orange wave, and it also sounds as if Regina may give Harper the heave-ho.

janfromthebruce

Following is the regional breakdown of seat totals:

 

Region
Liberals
Conservatives
NDP
Bloc
Independent

BC
6
20
10
0
0

Alberta
0
27
1
0
0

Man/Sask
1
11
16
0
0

Ontario
35
54
17
0
0

Quebec
16
7
29
22
1

Atlantic
14
11
7
0
0

Arctic
1
1
1
0
0

Total
73
131
81
22
1

 

 

 

Policywonk wrote:

janfromthebruce wrote:

NDP will win more seats than Liberals — new predictions

themace.caToday’s polls show that the NDP has reached Liberal levels of support — EKOS has the two parties tied at 24.7% apiece, behind the Conservatives at 34.4%. What’s more, the distribution of NDP support is good — my model predicts that the NDP will win 81 seats to the Liberal’s 73.

 

KissLaughing

How many do the other parties get each?

______________________________________________________________________________________ Our kids live together and play together in their communities, let's have them learn together too!

janfromthebruce

It's better to go see it at the link.

 

http://themace.ca/?p=209

edmundoconnor

Ray Boughen must be a worried man, these days.

wage zombie

Carolyn Bennett for Liberal Leader after Jack becomes PM and Iggy steps down.

Aristotleded24

edmundoconnor wrote:
Ray Boughen must be a worried man, these days.

Ditto Tom Lukiwski and Andrew Scheer

edmundoconnor

Aristotleded24 wrote:

Ditto Tom Lukiwski

Couldn't think of a nicer man for that to happen to. He's a rum 'un, and no mistake.

Tommy_Paine

It's too soon to get all excited. 

But what I find encouraging is that the campaign tactics employed by all three parties which have given rise to this phenomenon are continuing, so we can expect to see the trend continue.

This morining I saw a Liberal ad, asking people to check out the Liberal plan on line.-- Which only brings up memories of the "Red Book" and what a joke that was.  What are they thinking?

This is what I've been talking about these last many years and few believed me. The longer the Liberals were separated from the keys to the treasury, the less talent and cooperation they could get from the turd polishers and campaign advisors.  

It's a helpless grub, cut off from the royal jelly.

gyor

Tommy_Paine wrote:

It's too soon to get all excited. 

But what I find encouraging is that the campaign tactics employed by all three parties which have given rise to this phenomenon are continuing, so we can expect to see the trend continue.

This morining I saw a Liberal ad, asking people to check out the Liberal plan on line.-- Which only brings up memories of the "Red Book" and what a joke that was.  What are they thinking?

This is what I've been talking about these last many years and few believed me. The longer the Liberals were separated from the keys to the treasury, the less talent and cooperation they could get from the turd polishers and campaign advisors.  

It's a helpless grub, cut off from the royal jelly.

Actually thier tactics seemed to begetting worse. Iggy keeps talking out both sides of his mouth, Gilles is letting his temper get ahead of him, and Harper is acting demonic and scary again.

Tommy_Paine

It's heartening, to see how inept they are when they are forced out of their comfort zone and have to start thinking on their feet.  And I'm not talking just about the Leaders-- who are in most ways figure heads-- but of the strategists and tacticians from P.R. companies and marketing firms.

These people are really paid to know what we are thinking a few days before we think it, but when you look at them in this election, they are at least a week, if not two, behind public sentinments.

 

Fascinating shit.

gyor

Pundits seemed to be expecting Jack trip up and make a mistake because now "he is under pressure" as if the last 26 years of his political career was a cake walk. He has been preparing for this his whole life. It is the othe leaders that are cracking under the pressure. There is no reason at this point to think he will screw up. He is in complete control and what must do now is far more straight forward then what it took to get to thiss point.

JeffWells

FWIW:

 

Quote:

As for Trendlines.ca, Freddy Hutter tells me their latest projection has the NDP at 74 seats, but I'd have to subscribe to get the data any more than 9 days behind. Oh well … guess we'll have to wait.

http://www.punditsguide.ca/2011/04/rubber-hits-the-road-for-parties-and-...

 

NorthReport

Election Almanac just made a change based on today's polls - we're getting there slowly but surely:

 Party /  08 GE / Apr 20 / Apr 21 Apr 23 / Apr 24 / Change

Cons / 143 / 181 / 141 / 143 / 130 / Down 13 seats

NDP / 37  / 49/ 50 / 48 / 64 / Up 27 seats 

Libs / 77  / 47 / 77 / 78 / 76 / Down 1 seat

Bloc / 49 / 31/ 40 / 39 / 38 / Down 11 seats  

 

http://www.electionalmanac.com/canada/projections.php

NorthReport

The Liberal election projection project is useless.

 

 

http://www.electionprediction.org/2009_fed/index.php

 

NorthReport

Before today's polls and  affiliated with Harper so no rush to change the forecast Laughing

LISOP

Cons - 149 seats

Libs - 68 seats

NDP - 52 seats

Bloc - 39 seats

http://www.wlu.ca/lispop/seatprojections.html

 

NorthReport

Out of date as well

308.com

tooclosetocall.ca

 

 

jerrym


jerrym

Sorry the previous post did not take.

Here is the latest Election Almanac poll (April 25). I think we are actually much higher, but this should help emphasize we are in a fight for at least Official Opposition and could help bring more votes our way. News shows keep stating that the Cons see the NDP rise as a possible bonus for them because they believe it will cost Bloc and Liberal votes giving them a chance to win more ridings. If they do believe this and are not simply saying this for effect, they may lay off major spending on ads (which they are capable of) to attack Jack. That is fine with me since negative ads can work if they seem believable. However, opening the constitutional issue could lead to attacks from both Libs and Cons.

Cons 128 

Lib 78

NDP 65

Bloc 37

 

NorthReport

Election Almanac before the Angus Reid poll that came out today showing the NDP at 30%

Cons - 128 seats

NDP - 103 seats

Libs - 65 seats

Bloc - 12 seats

http://www.electionalmanac.com/canada/

Krago

Andrew Coyne - on The National's At Issue panel - just said that the latest Quebec poll numbers could fetch the NDP 20 seats in the province.  I think he meant to say 50 to 60 seats.

Boom Boom Boom Boom's picture

308.com explains this morning about why their seat projections are so unlike the others - they wait and see if the NDP surge is actually genuine and can be sustained.

The author writes:

"Most importantly, this is simply how the projection model is designed. It is meant to react slowly to new trends until they can be shown to be consistent and prolonged. With the NDP surge coming at the tail end of the campaign this might be coming too quickly and too late for my projection model to capture it completely. That's a limitation of the math - but is it also perhaps a reflection of what might actually happen on Monday night?

While the latest poll numbers would seem to strongly disagree with my projection, I actually believe my own numbers are closer to what the result will be in five days."

308.com seat projection: April 27

Cons 146

Libs    75

NDP    43

BQ     43

Green  0

Ind     1

NorthReport

308.com - does anyone pay attention to his silliness anymore? Laughing

josh

My penultimate projection:

Cons  142

NDP     76

Libs     55

Bloc     33

Indp     2

 

Sean in Ottawa

This is the scary thing take the last four projections in post 47, 45, 43, 39

They all show the Cons quite high.

They also show them below a majority based on one thing only--

Liberals getting over 60 seats.

There is now no longer any evidence to presume the Liberals can hang on to that many.

If the Liberals lose ten more seats to the Cons then the Cons get a majority. The numbers right now actually I think already support that. I think the Cons may in fact be at a majority level after all with this latest dip in Liberal support.

Worse, those suggesting trying to save those Liberal seats will only make that come true. Those Liberal seats are likely gone already. The kind of momentum needed to get them back simply cannot materialize. The only way to stop Harper is for the NDP to take another ten somewhere-- likely somewhere else-- not the ones the Liberals will lose-- but compensation elsewhere where the NDP is stronger.

In short, an attempt to slow the Orange wave will give Harper a majority an increase in it will deny that majority. This is the current reality and the tipping point was passed a week ago.

Some strategic voting in the 905 may help in theory but it is now impossible to tell who is ahead so in practice it is no use-- even if you beleive in the concept. I think the vote splits in those ridings already will deliver many of them to Harper.

The way to stop Harper will be in BC, Nova Scotia, Saskatchewan, Quebec, Manitoba and parts of Ontario like Guelph, Essex, Kenora and others.

Boom Boom Boom Boom's picture

NDP surge for real?

 

"And here’s the big question: are Canadians being manipulated into thinking that the NDP is doing much better than they are in order to confuse voters and ensure a Conservative majority? I don’t want to take the steam out of Jack’s train, but I’m very concerned about the manipulation that might be behind all of this."

I guess the reasoning behind the questioning is this: if a good percentage of the electorate truly fears the socialist hordes, they will run into the arms of the Cons or Libs to prevent Layton from wrecking the country.

NorthReport

308.com: what we had is what we're getting?

So they say.  That's not my read.

 

http://warrenkinsella.com/2011/04/308-com-what-we-had-is-what-were-getting/

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