This Should Be the NDP's Moment to Shine

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josh

The Republican Party is by no means destroyed at the federal level. It is one seat away from controlling the Senate and 5 seats away from controlling the House  I think it's naive to believe that there won't be a party to the right of the Liberals who won't constitute a viable threat for power.  It will never be just the NDP and the Liberals.

Pondering

josh wrote:

The Republican Party is by no means destroyed at the federal level. It is one seat away from controlling the Senate and 5 seats away from controlling the House  I think it's naive to believe that there won't be a party to the right of the Liberals who won't constitute a viable threat for power.  It will never be just the NDP and the Liberals.

The party capitulated to Trump. They will lose the house and the senate because 70% of Republicans believe that the election was stolen and Trump won. That is 70% of about 50% of Americans. So around 30% believe it was stolen, 70% believe it was not and that the 30 percent that do are crazies. 

A party in the US or Canada that cannot appeal to moderates (swing voters) cannot win an election. The Senate in the US is a little different because they are elected by states which have disproportionate influence. Even so the writing is on the wall. Demographics are changing and gerrymandering will be overcome by it.

cco

"Thing that happened a short few years ago is destined never to happen again", 'expert' with deep investment in inevitability of own viewpoint says. Funny how often I've heard that. In fact, I remember hearing that the Reform/Alliance/CPC could never win. It comes from the same place as the "vote-splitting" armchair analysis – investment in the concept of both voter behaviour and party behaviour as granite-carved constants.

Pondering

Party behavior has been pretty consistent. It's the times that are changing. Republicans and Conservatives have painted themeselves into a corner by encouraging division, hostility and extremism. They can't just put the cats back in the bag now. 

Look who will be back in the news in the run up to the next election.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/leslyn-lewis-conservative-party-1.5724076

She went from political obscurity to centre-stage in the Conservative leadership race overnight. Now, Leslyn Lewis says she intends to run in the next election for a seat long held by the Conservatives in southwestern Ontario....

Lewis launched herself into the political spotlight during the Conservative leadership race. A Black lawyer from the Toronto area with a PhD in law and a Masters in Environmental Science, she was open about her socially conservative views; she wants to restrict access to medical aid in dying and ban sex-selective abortions.

She will win the seat if she runs for it. Her views will be front and centre on full display for swing voters. Derek Sloan will be vocal too. 

Aristotleded24

Look at how Singh has handled hateful people here and here.

Funny how individuals can be disruptive, yelling, heckling, and even implying that he's not a real Canadian and he takes that with a smile, and yet larger numbers of people question the covid narrative and he wants to call the police on them?

Love and courage indeed.

Aristotleded24

Debater wrote:
I don't see Trudeau winning a majority in the next election unless the BQ collapses and the Liberals can pick up more seats in Quebec.  I think the best the Liberals can do right now is another Minority.

I completely disagree. I've been spending more time on a few right-wing news sites mainly because they are the only ones actually questioning the covid narrative. There are many Conservatives unhappy with O'Toole's leadership, and Mad Max is making a hard play for those votes. That's enough to spit the vote right there. I also posted upthread why I think Singh has failed as NDP leader, how the NDP will fail to distinguish itself from the Liberals to almost everyone but NDP diehards, and the similarities between the 2014 Ontario provincial election (Singh was part of that NDP caucus) and what is happening now.

NDPP

NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh talks with Jewish Community

https://www.cjnews.com/news/canada/ndp-leader-jagmeet-singh-talks-with-j...

"Singh spoke positively of his 2016 fact-finding mission to Israel, [and] about the Jewish state's nation-building experiment..."

Debater

Aristotleded24 wrote:

Debater wrote:
I don't see Trudeau winning a majority in the next election unless the BQ collapses and the Liberals can pick up more seats in Quebec.  I think the best the Liberals can do right now is another Minority.

I completely disagree. I've been spending more time on a few right-wing news sites mainly because they are the only ones actually questioning the covid narrative. There are many Conservatives unhappy with O'Toole's leadership, and Mad Max is making a hard play for those votes. That's enough to spit the vote right there. I also posted upthread why I think Singh has failed as NDP leader, how the NDP will fail to distinguish itself from the Liberals to almost everyone but NDP diehards, and the similarities between the 2014 Ontario provincial election (Singh was part of that NDP caucus) and what is happening now.

There are always a few disgruntled right-wingers who don't think the Conservatives are right-wing enough.  But most Conservatives support their own at election time and that is why the Cons usually have a turnout advantage over the Libs & NDP.

As for Mad Max, he failed to even win his own seat in the last election.  Unless he can actually start taking seats away from the Cons, he does not pose much of a threat.

And where are the Libs going to get enough seats to form a Majority next time?

Atlantic Canada -- the Libs are not going to sweep all the seats like they did in 2015, so there's not much potential for gains.

Quebec -- unless the BQ drops in support, the most the Libs can hope for is picking up a couple more seats.

Ontario -- Libs are almost maxed out, except for a few possible ridings.

Manitoba -- where do the Libs gain new seats?

Alberta/Sask -- how likely are the Libs to win anything in these 2 provinces in the near future?

BC -- possible gain or two, but not many openings.

Pondering

Pundits don't seem to think the Liberals are maxed out in Ontario. 

We won't see an election until fall at the soonest and possibly not until next spring. 

They don't need a majority to govern like one. Harper taught them that and now they are in an even stronger position than Harper ever was. For the sake of argument let's say the Liberals just win another minority which I accept is a likely outcome. 50% to 41% is fairly even.  

How long would it take for the NDP to be prepared to force another election by voting against the government in a confidence vote?  Will they even force one in the fall or will the Liberals be forced to call an election if they want one?

The main point, which I think the Liberals are well aware of, is that it is almost impossible for the Conservatives or NDP to win the next election nor the one after that unless things change dramatically in unforeseeable ways, like climate change being debunked as a hoax, or majority support for ending immigration, or society deciding women's and LBGTQ rights should be repealed.

I give the NDP a better chance of being the government that follows the Liberals federally than I do the Conservatives, not that the Conservatives will drop below 28-30% or stop being the party with the most money. 

Aristotleded24

Debater wrote:

Aristotleded24 wrote:

Debater wrote:
I don't see Trudeau winning a majority in the next election unless the BQ collapses and the Liberals can pick up more seats in Quebec.  I think the best the Liberals can do right now is another Minority.

I completely disagree. I've been spending more time on a few right-wing news sites mainly because they are the only ones actually questioning the covid narrative. There are many Conservatives unhappy with O'Toole's leadership, and Mad Max is making a hard play for those votes. That's enough to spit the vote right there. I also posted upthread why I think Singh has failed as NDP leader, how the NDP will fail to distinguish itself from the Liberals to almost everyone but NDP diehards, and the similarities between the 2014 Ontario provincial election (Singh was part of that NDP caucus) and what is happening now.

There are always a few disgruntled right-wingers who don't think the Conservatives are right-wing enough.  But most Conservatives support their own at election time and that is why the Cons usually have a turnout advantage over the Libs & NDP.

As for Mad Max, he failed to even win his own seat in the last election.  Unless he can actually start taking seats away from the Cons, he does not pose much of a threat.

And where are the Libs going to get enough seats to form a Majority next time?

Atlantic Canada -- the Libs are not going to sweep all the seats like they did in 2015, so there's not much potential for gains.

Quebec -- unless the BQ drops in support, the most the Libs can hope for is picking up a couple more seats.

Ontario -- Libs are almost maxed out, except for a few possible ridings.

Manitoba -- where do the Libs gain new seats?

Alberta/Sask -- how likely are the Libs to win anything in these 2 provinces in the near future?

BC -- possible gain or two, but not many openings.

We'll see how it plays out. These are not normal times, and there are larger numbers of people frustrated with lockdowns who are ready to just get on with life. There's not much media coverage of that right now, but when the election hits, when we get a clearer sense of social media trends, and when the media finally has to start paying attention to things it had been ignoring or become irrelevant, who knows?

BTW, isn't it strange political times where my projection of Liberal seats is more generous for the Liberals than yours? :)

Aristotleded24

Jagmeet Singh is not Trudeau's worst nightmare:

[qoute]

The plan, which seems to aim at making the progressive Singh the center of a personality cult akin to that of popular American social democrats such as Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) and Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.) has thus far entailed a range of gimmicky social media stunts, from cooking poutine on Instagram to playing the video game Among Us on Twitch with Ocasio-Cortez herself.

The problem is that the Singh people seem to have the cause-effect formula backwards. Sanders, AOC and the various other lefty celebrities who have emerged in the United States as of late, including Democrats such as Ohio’s Nina Turner and Missouri’s Rep. Cori Bush, usually gained their rock-star status only after a cadre of progressive activists and thought-leaders deemed them worthy of attention and elevation.

Singh, by contrast, does not have a similar reserve of goodwill to draw on. Though his position as party chief was reaffirmed by an 87 percent vote at the NDP convention this month, it’s hard to find much evidence he possesses a loyal base beyond the rote allegiance of his party’s hard-core partisans. In the years since the last election, the party’s poll numbers have remained stuck in the teens. His decision to hang on as leader even after leading the NDP to its worst showing since 2004 tested some progressives’ patience, and to the extent Canada possesses a class of left-wing pundits willing to talk about something other than U.S. politics, they’ve been critical of Singh’s perceived moderation on issues such as natural resources and Israel.

...

Watching Singh awkwardly deliver his keynote address to the New Democrats’ convention on April 11 provided a stark reminder of the degree people such as me grossly overestimated his political talents when his name was first floated as a plausible prime minister.

Unlike Justin Trudeau, the progressive prime minister the NDP has the most need to outshine, 42-year-old Singh is not particularly charismatic, and talks in a hesitant “upspeak” that comes off as immature rather than youthful. Where Trudeau promotes his party with soothing promises of kind and compassionate leadership (in a bout of unfortunate timing, Trudeau gave a much better speech to his own partys convention the day before), a Singh pitch rarely consists of more than stiffly reciting a few discordant NDP fixations — these days, national Pharmacare and student debt relief. It’s similar to the problem afflicting Canada’s Conservatives, who also struggle to present themselves as being animated by a single broadly resonating purpose.[/quote]

Pondering

This is provincial, not federal, but I do think it is indicative of mood. The NDP are in majority territory even though Conservatives always win in Alberta.

I don't think that says anything about how Albertans will vote federally in the coming election but it does show  Conservative decline which will continue along with urbanization. 

 

 

 

Pondering

Latest poll has the Liberals down a bit but still virtually guaranteed to win the next election. I don't think it makes much difference if it is a majority or a minority. Once the election is over the NDP will have no choice but to support the Liberals on confidence motions. 

 

https://newsinteractives.cbc.ca/elections/poll-tracker/canada/

NorthReport

,,

NorthReport

Nanos Party Power Index

Libs 55.8

NDP 47.3

Cons 45.1

Aristotleded24

*Posted in haste, deleted in reflection as it was not accurate*

Ken Burch

Aristotleded24 wrote:

melovesproles wrote:
Aristotleded24 wrote:

So yeah, since I was very unhappy with how the left responded to covid, I sought out other sources.  

Yeah, it is obvious what kind of sources you are consuming with your talk of “the left” “the great reset” and Big Statist plans to enslave everyone and make them reliant on government. This isn’t a new argument, you could read almost exactly the same tropes coming out of the John Birch Society in the 1960s.

Have you noticed the level of "we're-all-going-to-die-lockdown-is-the-only-hope" groupthink that has entered into MSM discourse, and by and large endorsed by nearly every left-wing publication in the industralized world? Suppose you have an infectious disease or public health expert who has looked at the data. The only pushback against this groupthink has come from right-wing media sources. Suppose this expert has good, solid reasons to believe that social distancing, masks, and lockdowns don't work and that we don't need a vaccine to go back to normal. Do you really think these media outlets are going to allow said expert to express this view? It's true that news outlets like the Post Millenial, Rebel News, Fox News, Talk Radio (UK) and Sky News are generally trash outlets. But if they are the only ones willing to give a fair hearing to this expert, is that my fault? Is this expert supposed to say, "well, I have information I think the public needs to hear, most media outlets are ignoring me, but I'm not going to go on the few media platforms willing to hear me out fairly because their politics are bad?"

The fact is, there was never an argument for what you demanded...not only no lockdown but no masking and no social distancing, even before the vaccine was found, AND no argument against vaccinations, that wasn't totally reactionary and economic royalist.  Covid was never going to just go away on its own- lethal viruses have never done that- and there was never any way a do-nothing approach could ever have been consistent with any notion of humane, caring, empathy-based values.

And now that we're getting towards the end of this- something we ONLY managed because of lockdowns, social distancing, masking and vaccination- you need to let this go already.  There's no good reason for you to keep fightinf for Trump's approach to Covid.  Too many people have died to make his "ideas"on Covid morally defensible.

Aristotleded24

Ken Burch wrote:

Aristotleded24 wrote:

melovesproles wrote:
Aristotleded24 wrote:

So yeah, since I was very unhappy with how the left responded to covid, I sought out other sources.  

Yeah, it is obvious what kind of sources you are consuming with your talk of “the left” “the great reset” and Big Statist plans to enslave everyone and make them reliant on government. This isn’t a new argument, you could read almost exactly the same tropes coming out of the John Birch Society in the 1960s.

Have you noticed the level of "we're-all-going-to-die-lockdown-is-the-only-hope" groupthink that has entered into MSM discourse, and by and large endorsed by nearly every left-wing publication in the industralized world? Suppose you have an infectious disease or public health expert who has looked at the data. The only pushback against this groupthink has come from right-wing media sources. Suppose this expert has good, solid reasons to believe that social distancing, masks, and lockdowns don't work and that we don't need a vaccine to go back to normal. Do you really think these media outlets are going to allow said expert to express this view? It's true that news outlets like the Post Millenial, Rebel News, Fox News, Talk Radio (UK) and Sky News are generally trash outlets. But if they are the only ones willing to give a fair hearing to this expert, is that my fault? Is this expert supposed to say, "well, I have information I think the public needs to hear, most media outlets are ignoring me, but I'm not going to go on the few media platforms willing to hear me out fairly because their politics are bad?"

The fact is, there was never an argument for what you demanded...not only no lockdown but no masking and no social distancing, even before the vaccine was found, AND no argument against vaccinations, that wasn't totally reactionary and economic royalist.  Covid was never going to just go away on its own- lethal viruses have never done that- and there was never any way a do-nothing approach could ever have been consistent with any notion of humane, caring, empathy-based values.

And now that we're getting towards the end of this- something we ONLY managed because of lockdowns, social distancing, masking and vaccination- you need to let this go already.  There's no good reason for you to keep fightinf for Trump's approach to Covid.  Too many people have died to make his "ideas"on Covid morally defensible.

With many jurisdictions taking different approaches to the pandemic, along with case drop-offs in many states that opened up with much smaller numbers of the population vaccinated than we have now, I think the data is clear enough on its own that people can look it and draw their own conclusions about what was or wasn't effective.

Left Turn Left Turn's picture

cco wrote:
"Thing that happened a short few years ago is destined never to happen again", 'expert' with deep investment in inevitability of own viewpoint says. Funny how often I've heard that. In fact, I remember hearing that the Reform/Alliance/CPC could never win. It comes from the same place as the "vote-splitting" armchair analysis – investment in the concept of both voter behaviour and party behaviour as granite-carved constants.

I remember pundits saying after Bush got reelected in 2004 that the Democrats could no longer win. And then I remember punits saying after Obama got reelected in 2012 that Republicans could no longer win the Presidency.

So yeah, I don't put much stock in these kinds of prognostications.

Mighty Middle

The reported on CTV News last night the number of candidates each party have nominated

Conservatives - 206

Liberals - 152

NDP - 75

Greens - 18

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