Summer election or not: Part 2

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West Coast Lefty

L. Ian Macdonald has a good column this AM outlining what a disaster this week was for Iggy.  He put his credbility on the line and caved on every substantive issue.  I thought at least the blue-ribbon panel would be some independent experts but it's all politicians and advisors, ensuring that Harper will get the report he wants and the concessions he's prepared to give.  There is no reason to think voters will want an election just a year after the last one.

The other pundits are going nuts about the certainty of an early November election but I don't buy it for a second, for the following reasons:

- The Copenhagen climate change conference is taking place from Dec 7 to 18 2009 - this is literally the conference to save the world and a November election would mean Canada would have no input in the crucial negotations leading up to the conference.  Stakeholders from the left and the right, esp the business community, will put pressure on the Libs not to bring the government down during this time period.  Plus, why would Iggy want to take power right before the conference with no ability to influence Canada's position there? Harper will simply copy Obama's positions in any event.

- On the more crass political level, Iggy desperately needs gains in Quebec to have any hope of winning even a minority.  So, what's happening in Quebec in fall 2009? Municipal elections across the province will take place November 1, in particular an epic federalist/sovereignist battle for the mayor of Montreal between ex-PQ cabinet minster Louise Harel and incumbent Gérard Tremblay, former PLQ Minister under Bourrassa.  All of the key Lib organizers in Montreal will be working for Tremblay, who is likely in danger of losing.  That means the key BQ/Lib swing seats like Ahuntsic, Jeanne-Le-Ber and Papineau will not have the foot soilders available for a November election.

I'd put money on a spring 2010 election, though the Libs may cave yet again if Harper is riding a wave of popularity from Copenhagen (if there is a good deal) and the 2010 Olympics, as well as economic recovery. 

Uncle John

They were all atwitter about an election in the summer and I kept saying no way, it wasn't going to happen.

There are 60 MPs who only have a few months to go before they get their full parliamentary pensions.

Their pensions are MUCH more important than any of your concerns will EVER be.

 

Looks like Ignatieff is continuing on with the Martin/Dion strategy of bluster and appeasement.

Still with Liberal and Conservative together, we have a nice majority government supported by 65+% of Canadians.

ocsi

Uncle John wrote:

Still with Liberal and Conservative together, we have a nice majority government supported by 65+% of Canadians.

Yes, but only because some of those supporters believe they are voting for a different party.

Darwin OConnor

West Coast Lefty wrote:
The Copenhagen climate change conference is taking place from Dec 7 to 18 2009 - this is literally the conference to save the world and a November election would mean Canada would have no input in the crucial negotations leading up to the conference.

With a Conservative government, that would probably be a good thing.

Bookish Agrarian

By conceeding to only study the EI 'question' Ignatieff has shown once again the Liberal 'principles' are nonexistent in today's Liberal party.  Ignatieff has shown Canadians once and for all that this is NOT the party of Pearson and Trudeau.  Hell, not even Chretien.  The question is are progressive Canadians paying attention or will they continue to be hoodwinked by the posers in the Liberal-Conservative Coalition.

I think I am going to get a bumpsticker made that says - I oppose the Liberal-Conservative Coalition.

 

 

ocsi

Bookish Agrarian wrote:

 

I think I am going to get a bumpsticker made that says - I oppose the Liberal-Conservative Coalition.

 

Make me one too!

Debater

West Coast Lefty wrote:

The other pundits are going nuts about the certainty of an early November election but I don't buy it for a second, for the following reasons:

- The Copenhagen climate change conference is taking place from Dec 7 to 18 2009 - this is literally the conference to save the world and a November election would mean Canada would have no input in the crucial negotations leading up to the conference.  Stakeholders from the left and the right, esp the business community, will put pressure on the Libs not to bring the government down during this time period.  Plus, why would Iggy want to take power right before the conference with no ability to influence Canada's position there? Harper will simply copy Obama's positions in any event.

- On the more crass political level, Iggy desperately needs gains in Quebec to have any hope of winning even a minority.  So, what's happening in Quebec in fall 2009? Municipal elections across the province will take place November 1, in particular an epic federalist/sovereignist battle for the mayor of Montreal between ex-PQ cabinet minster Louise Harel and incumbent Gérard Tremblay, former PLQ Minister under Bourrassa.  All of the key Lib organizers in Montreal will be working for Tremblay, who is likely in danger of losing.  That means the key BQ/Lib swing seats like Ahuntsic, Jeanne-Le-Ber and Papineau will not have the foot soilders available for a November election.

I'd put money on a spring 2010 election, though the Libs may cave yet again if Harper is riding a wave of popularity from Copenhagen (if there is a good deal) and the 2010 Olympics, as well as economic recovery. 

There will always be something going on in Canada or on the international front - at some point there will be an election regardless of what is happening at home or abroad.

As for the municipal election in Montreal, I don't think Temblay is "likely" in danger of losing - he is still in the lead and Louise Harel is viewed as a joke and as passé by many people.  Still, there is a possibility she could win and it's no longer viewed as the sure thing for Tremblay it once was.

Btw, I would not describe Papineau as a swing seat.  A swing seat is a riding that switches back and forth between parties on a regular basis.  Papineau has only gone Bloc ONCE and that was during the Sponsorship Scandal and by a small margin.  Now that the riding has been won by Justin Trudeau, it will likely stay Liberal.  If the BQ couldn't beat Justin when they were the incumbents, it will be very hard for them to beat him now.

 

josh

I don't know why anyone was taken in by this dog and pony show.  You know the Liberals would find a way to avoid having to take the blame for a summer election.

David Young

ocsi wrote:

Bookish Agrarian wrote:

 

I think I am going to get a bumpsticker made that says - I oppose the Liberal-Conservative Coalition.

Make me a bunch!

I'll take them to the federal NDP Convention in Halifax, and make sure that any New Democrats from Cumberland-Colchester-Musquodoboit Valley have them in time for the by-election (early/mid September?)

Wilf Day

Bookish Agrarian wrote:
I think I am going to get a bumpsticker made that says - I oppose the Liberal-Conservative Coalition.

Could you say the Ignatieff-Harper Coalition?

First, it smells worse. Second, some Liberals are better than others.

Maysie Maysie's picture

Closing for length, please start a new thread folks!

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