Things look bad, very bad, for the Liberals in Canada's latest polling thread

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NorthReport
Things look bad, very bad, for the Liberals in Canada's latest polling thread

._.

NorthReport

Conservatives keep lead in poll

http://www.cbc.ca/canada/story/2009/10/28/ekos-poll.html

Sondage CROP: Ignatieff en panne

Le chef des libéraux fédéraux, Michael Ignatieff, a perdu beaucoup de plumes au Québec et son parti a poursuivi sa longue glissade dans la faveur populaire après l'affrontement dans la circonscription d'Outremont et la démission de Denis Coderre.

http://www.cyberpresse.ca/actualites/quebec-canada/politique-canadienne/200910/28/01-915875-sondage-crop-ignatieff-en-panne.php

 

Canada

Date / Pollster / Cons / Libs / NDP / Bloc

2008 Election / 37.6% / 26.2% / 18.2% / 10%

Oct 29 / ARS / 40% / 26% / 17% / Cons lead Libs by 14%,  NDP trails Libs by only 9%

Oct 28 / EKOS / 38.4% / 26.8% / 16.7%  

Oct 26 / Envir / 38% / 26% / 16%  

Oct 26 / IR / 40% / 25% / 13% 

Oct 22 / Nanos / 39.8% / 30% / 16.6% 

Oct 22 / EKOS / 38.3% / 27.1% / 14.5% 

Oct 16 / ARS / 41% / 27% / 16% 

Oct 15 / EKOS / 40.7% / 25.5% / 14.3% 

Oct 15 / HD / 35% / 28% / 15% 

Oct 12 / IR / 39% /29%/ 13% 

Oct 8 / EKOS / 39.7% / 25.7%  / 15.2% 

Oct 6 / Strat Con / 41% / 28% / 14%   

Ontario

Date / Pollster / Cons / Libs / NDP

2008 Election / 39.2% / 33.8% / 18.2%

Oct 29 / ARS / 41% / 31% / 17%

Oct 15 / ARS / 45% / 29% / 19%

Quebec 

Date / Pollster / Bloc / Libs / Cons / NDP

2008 Election / 38.1% / 23.8% / 21.7% / 12.2%

Oct 29 / ARS / 40% / 20% / 21% / 15% 

Oct 28 / CROP / 37% / 23% / ? / 16%

Oct 15 / ARS / 36% / 26% / 25% / 8%

BC

Date / Pollster / Cons / NDP / Libs

2008 / Election / 44.5% / 26.1% / 19.3%    

Oct 29 / ARS / 43% / 25% / 27%

Oct 28 / EKOS / 36.8% / 28.9%  / 25%

Oct 26 / Envir / 34% / 29% / 24% 

Oct 26 / IR / 49% / 23% / 18%  

Oct 22 / Nanos / 37.3% / 22.6% / 29.4%  

Oct 22 / EKOS / 37.5% / 24.9% / 25.4%  

Oct 16 / AR / 47% / 22% / 21% / 9%

AC

Date / Pollster / Cons / Libs / NDP

2008 Election

Oct 29 / ARS / 35% / 32% / 26%

Leadership

Best PM

Quebec

Date / Pollster / Lay / Har/ Ign

Oct 28 / CROP / 26% / 25% / 20% / Layton leads

 

NorthReport
NorthReport
Scott Piatkowski Scott Piatkowski's picture

[url=http://www.cbc.ca/canada/story/2009/10/28/ekos-poll.html]Ekos, October 29[/url]

Quote:
Support for the Conservative Party continued to hold last week, according to the latest poll results from EKOS.

Among decided respondents, the Conservatives drew 38.4 per cent support, followed by the Liberals at 26.8 per cent and the New Democratic Party at 16.7 per cent.

The Green Party had the support of 9.9 per cent of decided respondents, while the Bloc Québécois had 8.2 per cent support, according to the EKOS poll, which was released exclusively to CBC.

Last week, the Conservatives stood at 38.3 per cent support, followed by the Liberals at 27.1 per cent, the NDP at 14.5 per cent, the Green Party at 11 per cent, and the BQ at nine per cent.

Respondents in the automated telephone survey are asked: "If an election were held tomorrow, which party would you vote for?" The poll reached 3,220 respondents between Oct. 21 and Oct. 27. The results carry a margin of error of plus or minus 1.7 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

EKOS also asked Canadians their thoughts on the leadership of Stephen Harper, Michael Ignatieff and Jack Layton, asking if any of the three should be removed immediately as leader of their respective party.

On Jack Layton, 51 per cent of respondents indicated they thought Layton should remain at the helm of the NDP, while 25 per cent said he should be replaced.

Layton had the high-water mark of support among the three leaders. On Harper, 45 per cent said he should stay, while 40 per cent said he should be replaced.

Michael Ignatieff's support was the weakest: 31 per cent of respondents said he should stay, while 46 per cent said he should go.

Le T Le T's picture

That's great news for Jack, Scott. At least he'll get to keep his job.

Stockholm

Notice that in the Ekos release and in the CBC's reporting of the polls - they manage to studiously ignore the fact that NDP support went by over two points. I guess it gets in the way of their cozy little narrative that the NDP is always facing disaster and then when it doesn't happen they have their little temper tantrums.

Sean in Ottawa

Of course they noticed it Stockholm so that the next fluctuation in the other direction can produce a headline.

howardbeale howardbeale's picture

Le T wrote:

That's great news for Jack, Scott. At least he'll get to keep his job.

Whup-te-doo. 40 percent of the country cant stand Harper, 46% cant stand Iggy, 50% like Jack, and he still cant hoist the party past 16%.

Ditch the smiling simpleton already

nussy

The bad news is Harper is heading for majority territory. Look for a snap election. 

ottawaobserver

I highly doubt it.  Their strategy is to get ensconced in the public's mind as the only viable governing party, and in their view the longer they're in office the better.  Plus, they do not want to miss out on the Olympics.  You can't just look at the public domain horse-race poll numbers to figure out what's in various parties' interest.

ottawaobserver

Sean in Ottawa wrote:

Of course they noticed it Stockholm so that the next fluctuation in the other direction can produce a headline.

LOL, Sean :-)

janfromthebruce

So Howard Jack is to blame because the NDP does get corproate MSM press - and proposally excluded from the horserace of twiddle-dee and dum?

When the leader is more positively rated than the party getting rid of the popular leader is - in MPO - the dumbest move the party would make.

Do you have a suggestion in who would be better? Personally, Jack is pulling the NDP as party ratings up.

howardbeale howardbeale's picture

He has no ideas. The party's going nowhere.

Stockholm

howardbeale wrote:

He has no ideas. The party's going nowhere.

If that's the best you can do, i would say that you are the one with no ideas and that you are going no where.

Tommy_Paine

 

If I was a Liberal, I'd...set myself on fire and jump in a vat of iodine and razor blades... but besides that I wouldn't be entirely disheartened by the polls. 

It seems to me the fluctuation of numbers shows that people are still looking for reasons NOT to vote for Harper; the Liberals just have to come up with a satisfactory one, and the people still will.

 

The message here is the people who keep vacilating to the Conservatives saying to the Liberals:  "See who you are making me vote for?"

 

 

Stockholm

We have to find away to get more of those disaffected Liberals to go NDP. The problem, as I see it, is that while there are a ton of Liberal voters (and BQ voters for that matter) who will list the NDP as their second choice - the soft Liberal and soft BQ voters tend to be people who would go Tory, the Liberals and Bloquists who would go NDP tend to be more part of the base vote for those parties. When Liberal support is 25% - they have lost ALL the Liberal/Tory switchers. I think that when Liberal support starts to go even lower, the next layer are people who will go NDP or Green or won't vote. Similarly in Quebec, for the NDP to realize its full potential, the BQ would have to show signs of a total collapse.

madmax

I hear Ignatieff will be looking for work soon. He has no ideas and the party is nowhere but down.

I always find the criticism of Layton interesting. He does get alot of criticism. Infact, all parties and people from all parties really like to bash Jack Layton.  From Liberals to Conservatives to Green, Layton bashing is a popular sport. Infact, it is so popular that many NDP voters engage in bashing Layton. Possibly the only ones justified in doing so, as they do vote for Layton and the party and no one should get a free meal ticket. Amidst all this criticism, and with the sky falling in September, Jack Layton has bumped up in opinion not down. The NDP have maintained their tradition levels of support, unlike the current LPC unless you wish to believe that Dion ushered in the new norm for the LPC of 26% or less.

No, Layton has taken a party with 13 seats to 19 seats to 29 seats and to 37 seats. And in the midst of popular neo liberal teachings of the 90s and with a generation who know of life in no other terms, the NDP has moved from irrellavent to a regular player in parliment and media and therefore within the public mindset.

A few years back, talk of the NDP was not a common factor in a coffeeshop.  Today, it is mixed in daily discussions and be them positive or negative, they are talked about.

I think that considering Jack Layton was himself boxed in shortly after Ignatieff abandon the coalition, he has recovered and is a proven political warrior. 

Look were the hapless Dion is today. And quite Frankly, the panic in the LPC and the blundered job of appointing Donolo, shows that the LPC have a difficult road ahead, and Ignatieff will not be around after the next election cycle.

The NDP have gone from strength to strength.  What does this mean for a small party? Well, the NDP is still around, unlike the Social Credit party of the same era.  And while Ed Broadbent was extremely popular and led the NDP to their high water mark seatwise, the NDP of today are actually within striking range of beating that figure.

There are more footholds and growth areas, as well, Ontario, where the NDP polling numbers are often the lowest nationally, is also the Provice where the NDP holds a record number of seats, surpassing Ed Broadbents days, and this is with the lingering morning after effects of the Provincial Rae government. Something Ed Broadbent never had to contend with.

On a final note, the NDP appears to have the most ideas in the house. Not only does this party have policy conventions and leadership conventions, (Unlike the Ignatieff Liberals), the NDP also provides the most PMB in the house. The party has the fewest members.

To say that "Jack Layton" has no ideas, is to suggest that the party has no ideas. Which is demonstratably not so. The NDP has many ideas, some still from the CCF waiting for the right political situation to be implemented.  Regardless of whether people like Laytons Pension proposal, there is no doubt he was prepped, researched and prepared when the issue of pensions came to forefront. 

Ignatieff was an empty vessel on the issue.

And Harper is hearing something, regardless if he views it like a swallow of buckleys. 

If anything, few NDP leaders have been in the media spotlight as much as Layton. Typically it is for the media to redicule and take pot shots.

Throughout the "noise" , some of that message is getting through, which is the job of a leader.

Any ideas on Ignatieffs message?

Harpers message is clear. So is Duceppes.

To suggest, at this point in time the NDP to change a seasoned leader for someone else is absurd and I haven't heard anything so stupid since... Dion, erm, Ignatieff.... Tongue out

 

 

howardbeale howardbeale's picture

Stockholm wrote:

howardbeale wrote:

He has no ideas. The party's going nowhere.

If that's the best you can do, i would say that you are the one with no ideas and that you are going no where.

ok, name one radical or smart idea of Jack's

Anyone?

Hello?

[crickets chirping, a lonely tumbleweed rolls through the centre of town]

people like Forrest Gump too. Doesnt mean they'll vote for him.

remind remind's picture

ottawaobserver wrote:
I highly doubt it.  Their strategy is to get ensconced in the public's mind as the only viable governing party, and in their view the longer they're in office the better.  Plus, they do not want to miss out on the Olympics.  You can't just look at the public domain horse-race poll numbers to figure out what's in various parties' interest.

I agree with this synopsis, and there is noway IMV, that Harper could call one, it ould erode what he has gained.

Look what happened to Iffy when he said he was going for 1, the fallout is still happening.

 

Canadians are in no mood for political games.

KenS

Stockholm wrote:
We have to find away to get more of those disaffected Liberals to go NDP.

In the Nineties and up until Layton became the Leader Canadian Election Study delving into voter choices showed a huge number of NDP identifiers voting for the Liberals.

We tend to talk about NDP/Lib swing voters in general- voters who are going to vote for one of those two.

But since Layton became Leader a lot more of those NDP identifiers have actually started voting NDP.

I'm wondering if that was the easier inroad into the NDP/Lib swing vote, and going further is both more difficult and just plain a different nut to crack.

Scott Piatkowski Scott Piatkowski's picture

[url=http://network.nationalpost.com/np/blogs/fullcomment/archive/2009/10/30/... walks again[/url]

 

Quote:
So Michael Ignatieff now finds himself in Dion territory (in Quebec too). Now I know I'm going to sound like a crazy person when I say this but maybe, just maybe, Stephane Dion wasn't responsible for all the problems facing the Liberal Party.

West Coast Lefty

KenS wrote:

Stockholm wrote:
We have to find away to get more of those disaffected Liberals to go NDP.

In the Nineties and up until Layton became the Leader Canadian Election Study delving into voter choices showed a huge number of NDP identifiers voting for the Liberals.

We tend to talk about NDP/Lib swing voters in general- voters who are going to vote for one of those two.

But since Layton became Leader a lot more of those NDP identifiers have actually started voting NDP.

I'm wondering if that was the easier inroad into the NDP/Lib swing vote, and going further is both more difficult and just plain a different nut to crack.

 

I think that's true - but those voting patterns are also very regionally differentiated.  In the West especially, there are much more NDP-Cons switchers than NDP-Lib switchers, in my opinion.  Most folks who vote Liberal in BC are affluent city dwellers in places like Vancouver Centre and North Vancouver - if they are going to switch, they will go Cons.  That's why the Cons picked up Lib seats where the NDP has no chance in 2008, in places like Richmond, North Vancouver and almost Vancouver South. 

The Esquimalt-JDF seat is most definitely NOT Liberal, it is a Keith Martin seat and will go either Cons or NDP when Martin steps down.  When the NDP won Victoria from the Libs in 2006, the Cons were a close 3rd and finished a strong 2nd in 2008 with the Liberals well behind.  In BC, the Conservative vote is a populist one and can go NDP under certain circumstances.  Moe Sihota said his strongest provincial NDP polls in Esquimalt were the strongest Reform polls federally (back when Keith M was a Reformer, of course).

So, while we do need to find ways to attract Lib voters in Ontario and points East, from the Manitoba border West I think the main prize is soft Conservatives, soft Greens and non-voters.  The Libs only have 7 seats west of Ontario anyway, and apart from Esquimalt-JDF and maybe Newton North-Delta, I don't think the NDP has much chance at winning any of them. 

The major NDP-Lib vote switch in the West happened in 2008.  In fact, we want the Libs to maintain a certain strength in BC so we can win the 3-way splits with the Conservatives.  If the Lib vote comes up a bit and eats in to the Conservative strength, we take back Vancouver Island North and have a good chance at winning Surrey North, Kamloops-Thomson and Pitt Meadows-Mission. 

That said, we obviously have to find a way to get some soft Lib votes in the GTA, Montreal/Outauoais, and Atlantic Canada if we want to see growth in those regions.

JKR

West Coast Lefty wrote:

In the West especially, there are much more NDP-Cons switchers than NDP-Lib switchers, in my opinion.

Traditionally the NDP has been strongest in Manitoba and Saskatchewan. So why are the Cons dominating the NDP so much in these areas? In the latest polls Con numbers in MB and SK have resembled their numbers in Alberta!

 

 

 

ottawaobserver

double-post; sorry

ottawaobserver

West Coast Lefty wrote:

I think that's true - but those voting patterns are also very regionally differentiated.  In the West especially, there are much more NDP-Cons switchers than NDP-Lib switchers, in my opinion.  Most folks who vote Liberal in BC are affluent city dwellers in places like Vancouver Centre and North Vancouver - if they are going to switch, they will go Cons.  That's why the Cons picked up Lib seats where the NDP has no chance in 2008, in places like Richmond, North Vancouver and almost Vancouver South. 

The Esquimalt-JDF seat is most definitely NOT Liberal, it is a Keith Martin seat and will go either Cons or NDP when Martin steps down.  When the NDP won Victoria from the Libs in 2006, the Cons were a close 3rd and finished a strong 2nd in 2008 with the Liberals well behind.  In BC, the Conservative vote is a populist one and can go NDP under certain circumstances.  Moe Sihota said his strongest provincial NDP polls in Esquimalt were the strongest Reform polls federally (back when Keith M was a Reformer, of course).

So, while we do need to find ways to attract Lib voters in Ontario and points East, from the Manitoba border West I think the main prize is soft Conservatives, soft Greens and non-voters.  The Libs only have 7 seats west of Ontario anyway, and apart from Esquimalt-JDF and maybe Newton North-Delta, I don't think the NDP has much chance at winning any of them. 

The major NDP-Lib vote switch in the West happened in 2008.  In fact, we want the Libs to maintain a certain strength in BC so we can win the 3-way splits with the Conservatives.  If the Lib vote comes up a bit and eats in to the Conservative strength, we take back Vancouver Island North and have a good chance at winning Surrey North, Kamloops-Thomson and Pitt Meadows-Mission. 

That said, we obviously have to find a way to get some soft Lib votes in the GTA, Montreal/Outauoais, and Atlantic Canada if we want to see growth in those regions.

That's a useful refinement of Stockholm's insight, which I still think is very interesting if true, albeit that its area of application would be more circumscribed as you say.  I also agree with your run-down on the BC seats, but would throw in Vancouver Centre as a current Liberal seat that would not be out of the realm of possibility with the right candidate and vote split.  The other seat the NDP could make a historical claim to with a higher Liberal vote would be Conservative-held Nanaimo-Alberni.  John Fryer isn't running up there for the Greens this time, by the way, having decided to spend his time back home in Victoria managing Liz May's campaign in Saanich-Gulf Islands.

Stockholm

"Most folks who vote Liberal in BC are affluent city dwellers in places like Vancouver Centre and North Vancouver - if they are going to switch, they will go Cons."

I think that's true to a point, but there are other elements of the Liberal vote in BC that the NDP ought to be able to access. We can write off the Liberal vote in places like North Van, West Van., Vancouver Quadra and Van South - because those are all examples of the silk-stocking upper class Liberal types who will rarely vote NDP. But then you get people who vote Liberal because they live in Van Centre or EsquimaltJUan de Fuca - and for reasons that I find unfathomable - they think that Hedy Fry and Keith Martin are just such faaantastic MPs (to paraphrase VanderZalm) that they vote Liberal for those people - but if Fry and Martin retired tomorrow, I'll bet a big chunk of their personal votes would go NDP.

There are also Liberal votes among ethnic communities in places Newton-North Delta and to a lesser extent after 2008 in the Burnaby seats and Van Kingsway that the NDP could easily pick up if people started to give up on the Liberals.

remind remind's picture

Agreed it was OO, as was your add on, and I concur with both your observations, for the most part.

 

JKR,  long history behind that....

 

Scott Piatkowski Scott Piatkowski's picture

West Coast Lefty wrote:
The Libs only have 7 seats west of Ontario anyway, and apart from Esquimalt-JDF and maybe Newton North-Delta, I don't think the NDP has much chance at winning any of them. 

I'll agree with ottawaobserver's suggestion that Vancouver Centre is winnable for the NDP, and add that I could see the NDP picking up Wascana once Ralph Goodale retires (depending on what the polls are like at the time).

adma

Stockholm wrote:
I think that's true to a point, but there are other elements of the Liberal vote in BC that the NDP ought to be able to access. We can write off the Liberal vote in places like North Van, West Van., Vancouver Quadra and Van South - because those are all examples of the silk-stocking upper class Liberal types who will rarely vote NDP. But then you get people who vote Liberal because they live in Van Centre or EsquimaltJUan de Fuca - and for reasons that I find unfathomable - they think that Hedy Fry and Keith Martin are just such faaantastic MPs (to paraphrase VanderZalm) that they vote Liberal for those people - but if Fry and Martin retired tomorrow, I'll bet a big chunk of their personal votes would go NDP.

Somewhat less sure about Fry these days than Martin--mostly because of gentrification and condo overkill...

NorthReport

It now is all but certain that the government will stay in power for the next several months, with the support of the small New Democratic Party.

http://ca.reuters.com/article/domesticNews/idCATRE5A43GG20091105

Canada

Date / Pollster / Cons / Libs / NDP / Bloc

2008 Election / 37.7% / 26.2% / 18.2% / 10% / Cons surpassed Libs by 12% 

Nov 5 / EKOS / 37.4% / 26.8% / 16.3% / Cons lead Libs by 11%

Oct 29 / ARS / 40% / 26% / 17%  

Oct 28 / EKOS / 38.4% / 26.8% / 16.7%  

Oct 26 / Envir / 38% / 26% / 16%  

Oct 26 / IR / 40% / 25% / 13% 

Oct 22 / Nanos / 39.8% / 30% / 16.6% 

Oct 22 / EKOS / 38.3% / 27.1% / 14.5% 

Oct 16 / ARS / 41% / 27% / 16% 

Oct 15 / EKOS / 40.7% / 25.5% / 14.3% 

Oct 15 / HD / 35% / 28% / 15% 

Oct 12 / IR / 39% /29%/ 13% 

Oct 8 / EKOS / 39.7% / 25.7%  / 15.2% 

Oct 6 / Strat Con / 41% / 28% / 14%   

Ontario

Date / Pollster / Cons / Libs / NDP

2008 Election / 39.2% / 33.8% / 18.2%

Oct 29 / ARS / 41% / 31% / 17%

Oct 15 / ARS / 45% / 29% / 19%

Quebec 

Date / Pollster / Bloc / Libs / Cons / NDP

2008 Election / 38.1% / 23.8% / 21.7% / 12.2%

Oct 29 / ARS / 40% / 20% / 21% / 15% 

Oct 28 / CROP / 37% / 23% / ? / 16%

Oct 15 / ARS / 36% / 26% / 25% / 8%

BC

Date / Pollster / Cons / NDP / Libs

2008 / Election / 44.5% / 26.1% / 19.3%    

Oct 29 / ARS / 43% / 25% / 27%

Oct 28 / EKOS / 36.8% / 28.9%  / 25%

Oct 26 / Envir / 34% / 29% / 24% 

Oct 26 / IR / 49% / 23% / 18%  

Oct 22 / Nanos / 37.3% / 22.6% / 29.4%  

Oct 22 / EKOS / 37.5% / 24.9% / 25.4%  

Oct 16 / AR / 47% / 22% / 21% / 9%

AC

Date / Pollster / Cons / Libs / NDP

2008 Election

Oct 29 / ARS / 35% / 32% / 26%

Leadership

Best PM

Quebec

Date / Pollster / Lay / Har/ Ign

Oct 28 / CROP / 26% / 25% / 20% / Layton leads

 

NorthReport

Every day it seems we get more bad news for the Liberals

 

Follow the leader? Not these Liberals

 

Michael Ignatieff needs to get a grip – on his caucus, on his party and on his staff. Too many of his Liberals are going rogue.

Eight of his MPs voted with the Tories this week to kill the long-gun registry. The Chrétien Liberals created the registry, spilling political blood to frame it into law. Privately, in the closed-door caucus meeting on Wednesday, Mr. Ignatieff urged his MPs to stand together and vote against the government. His pleas fell on deaf ears. However, Mr. Ignatieff reminded reporters that he was allowing his MPs to vote freely, and that it was a private member’s bill, not government legislation.

This week, too, Liberal president Alf Apps sent a note to colleagues and party supporters comparing the H1N1 vaccine crisis to the Bush government’s handling of Hurricane Katrina in New Orleans. More than a few Liberals were upset with the Apps hyperbole.

Then, Mr. Ignatieff’s hand-picked national party director, Rocco Rossi, was on Twitter, joking about swine flu and party patronage, saying “pork before swine.” A veteran Tory strategist called the Rossi joke “offensive.” Mr. Ignatieff didn’t offer any comment on the Apps/Rossi controversies.

It doesn’t end there: Ignatieff senior staffer Mark Sakamoto appeared on national television as an “ordinary citizen” complaining about the supply of the H1N1 vaccine. His cover was blown; the incident was embarrassing.

Mr. Sakamoto denied he was a plant. As parents of a newborn, he and his wife are on the priority list for the vaccine, and were waiting in line at a clinic when the interviewer approached. However, some believe the Ignatieff adviser should have known better.

Clearly, this behaviour is unnerving the Grits, with one Liberal describing the unwinding of the Ignatieff Liberals as being of “biblical proportions.”

 

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/blogs/bureau-blog/follow-the-leader-not-these-liberals/article1354792/

NorthReport

Travers: Liberals squander big chance

Michael Ignatieff has good reason to fear the federal long-gun registry. Every time Conservatives lock and load, Liberals shoot themselves in the foot.

It has been that way since Jean Chrétien responded to the murders of 14 women at Montreal's École Polytechnique and one woman at Toronto's Just Desserts cafe.

It got worse this week when Ignatieff and his who-are-we-now party blew off not one but two toes.

Opposition leaders and followers need two skills. Not necessarily in this order, they must be adept at providing policy alternatives and adroit at executing political strategy.

Tested against the current and smoothly advancing Conservative plan to kill the registry, Liberals, as they now subsist here, are incompetent at one and inept at the other.

Two opportunities came wrapped in the Conservative private member's bill that leapt over a major Commons hurdle Wednesday and is now pushing Canada back toward a past that felt more dangerous and was statistically less safe. If they had started sooner and thought harder, Liberals could have offered a more creative solution than the simplistic ruling party plan to scrap the registry. Or they could have turned a Conservative wedge issue to Liberal advantage by taking a principled position appealing to the 80 per cent of us living in cities.

Presented with that target-rich environment, Liberals fired blanks. Instead of making a firm proposal to bridge the gap between urban and rural realities and sensibilities, Ignatieff lamely mused about decriminalizing the registry, a solution Liberals rejected years ago. Instead of making Conservatives, a law-and-order and family values party, pay the highest possible political price for being offside with police chiefs and women worried about domestic violence, Liberals, along with the NDP, issued a get-out-of-jail-free card.

Dumb and dumber, those two mistakes will now haunt Ignatieff as well as Jack Layton. Groups that support gun control but dozed through this week's first round are waking and will be out in clamorous force when the bill, passed only in principle this week, moves to committee for closer scrutiny.

Conservatives will again take full advantage of that hubbub to solidify their core constituency and raise more funds from those who equate the freedom to own an unregistered long gun with liberty.

Liberals, desperate as always to be all things to all voters,,, will be embarrassed, as well as divided, by the second, much louder, sound wave.

 

 

http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/article/722548--travers-liberals-squander-big-chance?bn=1

NorthReport

Who cares?

It's flu season in Canada.

People have gotten sick from the flu before H1N1, and people will still get sick from the flu after H1N1. All this hype is nonsense.

 

Crisis? What crisis? Flu-shot experience was efficient, polite

 

Canadians are used to standing in line and it took only 45 minutes

 

http://www.montrealgazette.com/health/Crisis+What+crisis+shot+experience+efficient+polite/2195446/story.html

Centrist

Stockholm wrote:
But then you get people who vote Liberal because they live in Van Centre or EsquimaltJUan de Fuca - and for reasons that I find unfathomable - they think that Hedy Fry and Keith Martin are just such faaantastic MPs (to paraphrase VanderZalm) that they vote Liberal for those people - but if Fry and Martin retired tomorrow, I'll bet a big chunk of their personal votes would go NDP.

The Libs win Vancouver Centre in spite of Hedy Fry. She's not very popular in many parts of that riding. If she was replaced I'd bet that the Libs would increase their vote in Van Centre. The Cons are too right wing for the old urban 'progressive conservative' who vote Lib... and then there is the typical provincial NDP/federal Lib voter in that riding.

Van Centre was the last Lib bastion west of the Ontario border, IIRC, during the 1979 federal election when Art Phillips retained it for the Libs. Not even he was able to hold the seat during the 'hate-on' for Trudeau during the 1980 federal election.

One other point to note about Van Centre - provincially half of the riding is Van False-Creek and it was the 3rd most right-wing riding (out of 12 in the City of Vancouver) in 2009 due to the condo owner/occupiers with the provincial Libs retaining 57% to 27% for the NDP. And that trend will continue with the planned massive North East False Creek development and the South East False Creek developments (inclusive of the $million$ condos in the Olympic Village).

The NDP had their best chance in 1988 with Joanna den Hertog as our candidate and ohhhh it was so close. And that was when there were no owner/occupier condo towers as we are facing today.

 

 

-=+=-

NorthReport wrote:

 

Every day it seems we get more bad news for the Liberals

 

Follow the leader? Not these Liberals

Michael Ignatieff needs to get a grip – on his caucus, on his party and on his staff. Too many of his Liberals are going rogue.

[...]

 

 

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/blogs/bureau-blog/follow-the-leader-not-these-liberals/article1354792/

 

From the link:

 

“It is very sad and unfortunate that the Ignatieff Liberals are desperately attempting to politicize the H1N1 preparedness efforts of the federal and provincial governments,” the PMO said in its “Alert” response to the Sakamoto television appearance. And in Question Period this week, Tory cabinet ministers repeated that same “politicization” refrain.

 

The Tories are now calling them the "Ignatieff Liberals"?  This is the first time I've noticed them doing this.  I guess Iggy's personal numbers are now that bad.

Can anyone remember if it was ever the "Dion Liberals"?

Sean in Ottawa

Yes it was--

The Cons always go personal and nasty-

I don't like Ignatief nor the Liberals but cannot celebrate the continued personal, policy free nastiness the Cons like to drive our system in. Beyond the contemporary politics they sicken the public that wants less and less to do with the entire political democratic system. This only serves to discourage more people from the idea that politics can make a difference and increases the chance that we will continue on this path towards reduced democracy in Canada.

I'd like to argue with Ignatief on policy but this is not a climate where this is possible. We all lose.

Both the Liberals and the Cons have been anti-democratic for a long time and this is only one more step on that road. I am fine when either the Liberals or Cons take a hit except where the damage to the engagement of people in what passes for a democracy becomes further weakened.

adma

Anyone wanna speculate on whether the byelections might spark a bump in national NDP numbers?  I mean, it's an "NDP-potential" perfect storm: one already-held seat, one seat with a provincial gov't honeymoon effect, one that's already left-leaning Bloc with a right-leaning Bloc candidate, one where the symbolic wind out of the Grit sails with the nominal non-Bloc option being Tory...a perfect storm, even if they only win the one they already hold...

NorthReport

 

Tories position by-elections as test of Ignatieff

None of the ridings has ever been prime Liberal turf. But rarely has the once-mighty, self-described natural governing party seemed so thoroughly out of contention.

“If you're the official Opposition, I think you'd be expected to do well in by-elections in the midst of a global economic downturn,” Conservative party spokesman Fred DeLorey said Sunday.

“I think it says something about leadership.”

Mr. DeLorey said the Tories expect to be shut out themselves, pointing out that by-elections rarely reward the governing party. But that message is almost certainly more an exercise in lowering expectations than a realistic prediction.

The Tories are well-positioned to win one contest and come close in two others. Ditto for the NDP.

For their part, New Democrats are hoping the by-elections will produce a new political dynamic in Quebec in which the NDP are seen as the federalist alternative to the separatist Bloc on the island of Montreal and the Tories are seen as the alternative outside Montreal. Under this scenario, the Liberals would be squeezed out entirely.

“We used to finish behind the Marijuana Party [in Quebec],” NDP Leader Jack Layton noted last week.

“But we're now real players, so much so the Bloc's even attacking us. Holy mackerel. We must be doing something right.”

 

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/tories-position-by-elections-as-test-of-ignatieff/article1355790/

remind remind's picture

Even the news out here this morning, indicated that the Liberals were toast in all 4 by-elections, and indeed the NDP was looking good in 3 out of the 4.

 

almost scarey that......

Debater

Toast?  None of the seats are Liberal and the Liberals were not expected to win any of them.

Doug

Most people won't know that, however, so it's going to look bad on the Liberals anyway.

madmax

3 Provinces, 4 By Elections and No Prospects.  Not being expected to win, and finishing in 3rd or 4th in every single By Election looks bad, because it is bad.

If the LPC finish ahead of the NDP in Nova Scotia at least 2nd, it would be a positive.

If the LPC finish 2nd in Quebec, it would be positive

If the LPC finish 2nd in BC, it would be positive

If the LPC could win or finish 2nd in any of these ridings it would be positive.

This By Election round could be very very very bad news for the Party that threatened to take down the government.

Debater

Most of the media outlets are portraying these by-elections as not being a big deal for the Liberals since they aren't expected to win any of them.

Bookish Agrarian

Actually all of the media accounts I have seen have been suggesting far more that the Liberals were no big deal in these by-elections.   That is a significantly different story-line

remind remind's picture

Exactly BA.....

canuquetoo

howardbeale wrote:

Stockholm wrote:

howardbeale wrote:

He has no ideas. The party's going nowhere.

If that's the best you can do, i would say that you are the one with no ideas and that you are going no where.

ok, name one radical or smart idea of Jack's

Anyone?

Hello?

[crickets chirping, a lonely tumbleweed rolls through the centre of town]

people like Forrest Gump too. Doesnt mean they'll vote for him.

That silence you hear, Howard, is the serious NDP navel gazers ignoring you. The NDP had a great policy in their inheritance tax proposal complete with a $1 million exemption, which would unencumber ~90% of beneficiaries. Sadly, they didn't present it well and then tucked tail and ran for cover when the anticipated Lib/Con fearmongering began.

That said, Howard, unless you have something less inflamatory and more interesting to say, I'm going to ignore you too.

Debater

Bookish Agrarian wrote:

Actually all of the media accounts I have seen have been suggesting far more that the Liberals were no big deal in these by-elections.   That is a significantly different story-line

Stockholm explained the situation well on the other thread.  He did a better job of summarzing it than me.  You might want to check his analysis out.  Basically, expectations are low for the Liberals and so they aren't expected to win anything and it won't be a big deal.

However, I would say that if the Liberal popular vote is very low, that would be somewhat pathetic.

Scott Piatkowski Scott Piatkowski's picture

To expand upon BA's point, if the Liberal Party currently had any semblance of being a serious national political party, the expectations for their performance wouldn't have been so ridiculously low.

Debater

Can the NDP expect to be viewed as serious national party when it still badly trails the Liberals at a time when the Liberals are doing very poorly?

NorthReport

All those terrible rumours are untrue. Ther Liberals actually did beat the Greens. Laughing

New Westminster-Coquitlam By-Election Results Nov 9/09

NDP -  49.6%

Cons - 35.8%

Libs - 10.3%

Grn - 4.3%

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