Whither John Tory

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Babbling Jenn

That's what she says when you ask about jobs. "More money for health care and education will bring more jobs."

 That's fine, but that's not the answer to every question. 

Babbling Jenn

The first debate was tonight. Lyn did marginally better, but wasn't a great public speaker. She has improved on the issues somewhat. 

Schreiner (Green) was actually the most impressive candidate.

madmax

If Schreiner is the most impressive Candidate, what does this say about John Tory.  John Tory should be crushing the field. If he can't win a debate in the minors, how does he ever expect to win one in the Majors?

Debates aside, they don't mean anything to the public. The Public pays little attention.

So, how many people were there and which candidate did you come out to support?

I am also curious. What are the local issues???

Being that someone from Toronto could handle a local debate on Local issues better then two homegrown candidates interests me. 

 

madmax

John Tory a Lame DUCK

  

Quote:

Bringing doctors to area, creating jobs top list of priorities for independent hope- JASON TAYLOR: Tory a 'lame duck' Posted By JASON BAIN, SUN MEDIA, LINDSAY POST Posted 8 hours ago  

So what launched the Cannington resident into his first attempt in politics?

For Taylor, the biggest issue to address in the riding is getting more family doctors. He said he, his wife and two children, aged 11 and 7, have been without a doctor for a couple of years. He said as MPP, he would talk directly to graduating doctors to encourage them to come to the region, and would help mayors to get grants to pay the student loans of doctors willing to move to underserviced areas.

He said the Liberal government has had time to put doctors here, but hasn't done it.

The next major issue is local jobs, said Taylor. "I know John Tory has been out there, speaking with people -- his friends aren't the ones getting laid off. His friends aren't the ones that sit up at night, wondering how they're going to pay the rent. I know these people. These are my friends."

What is funny, is this guy sounds more like a New Democrat then a Conservative. But like many working people, likes to support the policies of a government that puts them in the position they are complaining about.

At least he has put his $200 down, but he would do better to have run with a Party.  I like a person who recognises what is happening to his friends. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Babbling Jenn

There were about 150 people there. That's a pretty good turnout in bad winter weather in cottage country.

The issues that came out strongest at the meeting were uranium mining (the east side of the county has been pegged for an open pit mine), funding for the arts, health care spending and a couple questions about whether this is a "democratic" or necessary election at all.

Strangely, no one asked about jobs. Talking to someone afterward, he suggested that was because this area has been so bad for jobs for so long no one can feel the recession here. 

madmax

Thanks Jenn.

150 People is a very good turnout under any kind of conditions. What you point out about the jobs makes sense.  People become descensitized to the reality if it has been around long enough. 

Obviously some people are ticked about the by election. 

Do most people share this opinion on the Uranium mining???

Quote:
The City of Lindsay, of the Kawartha Lakes district, has become the 23rd Ontario municipality to call for a moratorium on uranium mining
Where there candidates supporting the mining?

I appreciate you answering my questions.  Was the FCP candidate and the Independent at the debate?

That has got to be one of the Largest Rural/small community ridings I have seen. How can a candidate cover such a large area??? 

 

 

 

adma

madmax wrote:

That has got to be one of the Largest Rural/small community ridings I have seen. How can a candidate cover such a large area??? 

Ask Howard Hampton.

Babbling Jenn

The candidates were split on uranium mining. Liberal said that the mining act was under consultation right now and nothing should happen until that was resolved. 

Tory said that there should be a moratorium on mining while issues of safety and rights of landowners are resolved.

NDP said that we should be moving to renewable energy and was against the mine.

Green said the same.

The Family Coalition candidate ... I can't remember what he said, actually. Freedom party said he was against the mine.

The independent was the only one who said he was for the mine.

Many people asked questions about mining, storing waste and nuclear energy. Although all but one candidate said "no" to the mine, only the NDP and Green parties said that nuclear energy wasn't the way to go.

 Every municipal council in our county has supported a moratorium on uranium mining, although there is only a threat of mining in Highlands East, which is the east side municipality with only about 2,000 people.

The riding is huge and this creates some problems for candidates. One example of that is that everyone who is running, except the Family Coalition member is from the south end, which is very different from the north end.

To someone in our county, a candidate from Lindsay is just as foreign as one from Toronto. For example, both the Freedom Party candidate and the Independent talked about manufacturing job loss and farming. We don't really have much arable land here and only very small and few farm operations. We're a tourist area with massive unemployment (30% in the winter) and very little in the way of manufacturing.

For candidates to come talking to us about keeping the family farm is almost irrelevant, but it is VERY relevant to those in Lindsay, Cannington, etc. because they are farmers.

Understandably, because of his immense ability to allocate research resources, Tory has been very good at capturing the sentiment of this riding, while "local" candidates from the south don't know what to say because they don't know our experience.

This puts the NDP candidate at a disadvantage - I think this has been part of the reason why she talks so much about health care, but so little about tourism, logging, attracting industry, seniors, etc.  

And, when it comes to votes, we have very few in comparison to the southern area, so perhaps it's not worth the energy to find those answers.

adma

Babbling Jenn wrote:

And, when it comes to votes, we have very few in comparison to the southern area, so perhaps it's not worth the energy to find those answers.

Are you speaking in terms of raw numbers, or in terms of share?  Because when it comes to share, the "uranium belt" (Cardiff and environs, I presume) has actually been historically above average for the NDP by riding standards.  And if one considers how much it has in common with resource-dependent, NDP-friendly Northern Ontario, it shouldn't be so surprising.

Babbling Jenn

I mean in raw numbers. Cardiff has a population of ... I'd guess maybe 300 people. That might be too high. So it's a pretty small number of votes. 

I see your point about resource-dependent areas, but there has been no mining in Cardiff for 50 years. Money is made by those who work outside of the community in Bancroft, Peterborough or Haliburton. 

scarboroughnative

would love to see tory and bisson in a debate. tory would be destroyed.

Stockholm

"would love to see tory and bisson in a debate"

So would McGuinty - he would probably come across as the rose between two thorns.

Jason Taylor

It was funny that each candidate, including Mr. Shriener, stated the nuclear plants were necessary but I was the only one to be in favour of the mine. If we need the plants to produce energy where are we going to get the fuel? Also we NEED nuclear material for medical purposes.

I did not call Tory a "lame duck" read the entire article; they took a word out of a sentence and put it by my name. My first go round with the press.

As for being more of a NDP, I am not. My basis for this is, when a community does not have a family Doctor; the expense is transferred to ER’s, medical clinics, and longer term care as symptoms go untreated. Spend the money now or pay a lot more later.

If any poster wants to ask me a question, you can post it on my website JasonTaylor.ca or at [email protected]. If you want to post it here send me an email and I will answer it on the forum. 

 

Thanks, Jason

Bookish Agrarian

"As for being more of a NDP, I am not. My basis for this is, when a community does not have a family Doctor; the expense is transferred to ER’s, medical clinics, and longer term care as symptoms go untreated. Spend the money now or pay a lot more later."

 

 

You know this makes absolutely no sense.  Can you expand on this, as I am sure you are trying to make a point, but I am not what it is.  If it is that the NDP is against family doctors that's just dumb-ass stupid.  So I am sure it is something more.  I find independents ideas interesting and worth considering so when you have time I would enjoy reading your expansion on this point.

adma

Babbling Jenn wrote:

I see your point about resource-dependent areas, but there has been no mining in Cardiff for 50 years. Money is made by those who work outside of the community in Bancroft, Peterborough or Haliburton. 

 Yet the Cardiff zone has still been an "above average" pool for NDP votes, anyway--maybe a bit of a spillover from resource-town days, or maybe a certain "frontier vote" factor that, in itself, is not unlike what's fueled the party's strength in Northern Ontario lately.

 

Don't write it off: it could be a cornerstone for future growth.

Jason Taylor

That is not what I am mean. I was stating that because this is a priority of mine, it was said "What is funny, is this guy sounds more like a New Democrat then a Conservative."

No matter what party affilation, Doctors are an issue.

If you have a question, post and I will respond.

George Victor

BA: 

"You know this makes absolutely no sense.  Can you expand on this, as I am sure you are trying to make a point, but I am not what it is.  If it is that the NDP is against family doctors that's just dumb-ass stupid.  So I am sure it is something more.  I find independents ideas interesting and worth considering so when you have time I would enjoy reading your expansion on this point."

---------------------------------------------------------------

Never underestimate the power of the conservative whisper campaign, BA, where stories of events two decades ago and even oldeer come to life and give folks something to look important  about, sort of keepers of the immutable truths. In this case, the Rae government's denial of funding to med schools that suppressed graduate medical numbers.

Big Mike's part in maintaining the med school status quo and going on to do a number on hospitals would not "fit" in that chap's memory bank. May never have even been offered to him.

Can't  think of any other source for his mental meanderings.

 

Jason Taylor

Wow no takers on my offer?

How often does a candidate appear here and actually solict feedback?

madmax

Jason.

Short of Babblingjen, there is no one on babble that I am aware of that has expressed they live in your riding.  I appreciate your willingness to solicit feedback, here and on other forums.

The net is good, but keep focus on those in your riding. 

Your webpage looks pretty professional btw.

 

 

 

asterix

"If that were true BA, then why did McGuinty break tradition and field a candidate???"

There's certainly a tradition in Canadian politics of not running a candidate against another party's new leader right after a leadership convention. But there's hardly any sort of tradition of giving a longtime leader who was a sitting member, but then got his butt handed to him in the last general election, a free ride back into the Legislature.

madmax

The Liberals are going for it....

Quote:

The Liberals are quietly throwing huge resources at the byelection. The premier has already visited and Johnson expects at least half the 71-member Liberal caucus to drop by before election day. 

Jason Taylor

Does that show desperation?

This is going to be fun to watch, even better to be a part of.  We have two politicians that are fighting for their political lives.

 

 

Acadieman

If John Tory loses the by-election, he's done as leader.  As long as he is PC leader, Dalton McGinty will be Premier.

If Tory lose, the leadership race will be on.  And make no mistake of it, attempts at making a purge of progressive elements of the Ontario PC Party were attempted but failed recently.  Those attempts will be renewed under a new leader.

Could you imagine Randy Hillier as PC Leader?  Who besides him could step up to challenge McGinty? 

madmax

OPPS Liberals and Torys CAUGHT CHEATING on POLL

 

Poll results appear skewed Posted By Peggy Armstrong, Lindsay Post ReporterUpdated 1 hour ago  

KAWARTHA LAKES - The online poll that The Lindsay Post has been running since the byelection was called indicates that someone feels strongly enough to take the time to skew the results.

 On Sunday, the vote count had climbed to over 29,000 for Johnson and over 32,000 for Tory.

On Monday morning, the number of votes for Tory had skyrocketed to 89,463, giving him 66 per cent of the total and dropping Johnson to 22 per cent. In the provincial election of 2007, the total number of votes for all the candidates was 48,599. The total number of eligible voters in the riding as of 2007 was 81,953.

------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Opps I did it again :)

aka Mycroft.... gets feather in cap for calling this one before it got out of hand.

 

 

 

Stockholm

"If John Tory loses the by-election, he's done as leader.  As long as he is PC leader, Dalton McGinty will be Premier."

 

On the contrary, the only way that McGuinty can lose is if Tory remains Tory leader. He has his faults, but he is still electable. The Liberals would LOVE to have Tory lose and then have the Ontario PCs get taken over by the lunatic fringe Randy Hiliard crowd.

Jason Taylor

It was hilarious to watch that poll.

 

As they say even the dead vote twice.

madmax

Well, the Election is Tommorrow and it appears to be a two horse race, maybe a 3rd dark horse, but not by anything the paper has written. So,

IS JOHN TORY TOAST? Will this be the Story on Friday?

I put a poll on Maple Leaf web.. Isheinorisheout.

Apparently John Tory has less traction then the Ontario NDP Leadership Poll I also have going on in the same forum.

While there aren't as many votes on MLW as here for the Ontario Leadership Campaign, there is a similarity.

 

Andrea Horwath is leading and Peter Tabuns is in 2nd, which is the same as in this poll on Babble, last I checked. 

 

 

Jason Taylor

My prediction ... Tory is out.

 

www.JASONTAYLOR.ca

Babbling Jenn

I haven't the faintest clue who is going to win. I don't think the NDP or Green stand a chance. 

So, it's either Liberal - Johnson - or Tory. The next few hours will be interesting! 

Lord Palmerston

With 1 poll reporting, the Liberal is beating Tory by a 2-1 margin...I wonder how representative this poll is.

Lord Palmerston

As of 9:30, there are 19 polls reporing...Tory is ahead, but only barely (by 42 votes) or 4 points. 

WillC

From this site, http://www.elections.on.ca/en-CA/ElectionNightResults2009.htm, he's behind at 9:50 PM

adma

And now with half the polls in, he's ahead again--by less than 200 votes.  Who knows; it might be the advance polls (which tend traditionally to favour the PCs) which'll make the difference...

Stockholm

Now Tory is behind by 400 votes. I'm not sure what to think. On the one hand it might be good to see the PCs in disarray on the eve of the ONDP picking a new leader etc...on the other hand, I'm scared that if Tory goes, the Ontario PCs will swing to the right and pick and Common Sense Revolution type lunatic - and that person could get elected 2.5 years from now if people are pissed off enough.

adma

It's also interesting to see the Greens ahead of the NDP, despite rumours that with the school-funding issue now stale news and Ellie May treading federal water, the bloom is off the Green rose.

 

Uh-oh, now 149 polls, and the Liberals are 435 votes *ahead*...

adma

Stockholm wrote:
...on the other hand, I'm scared that if Tory goes, the Ontario PCs will swing to the right and pick and Common Sense Revolution type lunatic - and that person could get elected 2.5 years from now if people are pissed off enough.

Then again, they could go that extra step too far and pick Randy Hillier.

 

 Now 168 polls and a 600 vote gap for the Liberals.

Stockholm

I don't read much into the NDP and Greens getting 6% of the vote each in this riding. This is a classic example of a riding that is tailor made for the Greens (lots of hobby farmers and cottage country types), plus there are clearly a lot of Tories looking for a place to lodge a protest vote against Tory. The NDP has no base of support here. If the best the Greens can do is tie the NDP in what is just about the worst riding in the province for the NDP - it doesn't say much.

Lord Palmerston

Tory is now behind by 900 votes - with 229/258 polls reporting.

RevolutionPlease RevolutionPlease's picture

More generalizations...the NDP would be wise to muzzle you Stockholm.

Stockholm

I guess if you call any discussions of voting patterns and demographics "generalizations" we might as well shut down virtually all political discussion on babble!

RevolutionPlease RevolutionPlease's picture

Point noted.  :)

adma

Stockholm wrote:
The NDP has no base of support here. If the best the Greens can do is tie the NDP in what is just about the worst riding in the province for the NDP - it doesn't say much.

 Considering Dennis Drainville's 45% or so in 1990, or that the NDP was over 15% here provincially in 2003 (yeah, with Earl Manners, so what) and federally (*without* Earl Manners) in 2004 and 2006, to call it "no base of support" is a little blithe, let alone "worst riding in the province".  Even provincially in 2007, they were 12% to the Greens' 7%; and, far from being "worst in the province", that was only barely below midpack among Ontario ridings, sharewise.

All in all, we're talking about a seat where the NDP's lately tended to do better on average than in virtually *all* 905-belt seats save Oshawa.

Babbling Jenn

As I watch the poll numbers come in I realize that I thought that Tory would win. I am astonished to see Johnson out front.

It is frightening to think the PCs would be led by a neo-con again. At least Tory believed in some social services.  

Babbling Jenn

adma wrote:

  Even provincially in 2007, they were 12% to the Greens' 7%; and, far from being "worst in the province", that was only barely below midpack among Ontario ridings, sharewise.

 Honestly I heard a lot of people say that they usually vote NDP, but don't like Lyn Edwards and wouldn't vote for her. Some are upset about the big strike in Lindsay last winter, others just don't like her robot performance.

I expect the Green candidate to top her here. 

RevolutionPlease RevolutionPlease's picture

Babbling Jenn wrote:

 

It is frightening to think the PCs would be led by a neo-con again. At least Tory believed in some social services.  

 

Huh?  Tory rah-rah here?

Stockholm

It also goes without saying that with the NDP leadership race happening this weekend - the level of NDP effort in this byelection was essentially NIL.

But the real story is what happens to the PCs now since this will almost certainly mean the end of John Tory.

Unionist

The unlamented John Tory has lost. Good riddance.

He tried to turn the wheel of history backwards by pandering to organized religion. And as I pointed out [url=18">http://www.rabble.ca/babble/aboriginal-issues-and-culture/john-tory-play... months ago[/url], he is a shameless anti-FN racist and social neo-con.

What is amazing, now as then, is some people trying to present him as a nice guy:

Babbling Jenn wrote:
At least Tory believed in some social services.

Yeah, like more cops, courts, and prisons for Aboriginal people (see above link).

 

 

 

Stockholm

No one ever said Tory was a "nice" guy. In fact most people I've met who know him say that he's actually not particularly "nice" at all and that on the contrary - he is a bit of a jerk.

But, by Conservative standards, he is socially moderate. He marches in the gay pride parade every year, he is a patron of the arts and he seems to want to appeal to urban voters. Its not saying much - but it sure beats Harris.

Its hard to say "good riddance" when the happiest people about his demise are the rightwingers in the PC party who want to replace him with someone far worse - and my fear is that after a couple more years of recession - that person culd be the next premier of Ontario.

Unionist

Tory's policies and statements as I cited above, in detail, are racist and bordering on fascist, besides his attempt to further destroy the public school system. He may be better than Harris, or better than Hitler, but your standards are abysmally low.

Anyway, he lost tonight, and the NDP lost to the Greens. This is a lesson for the defenders of sending taxpayers' money to churches to educate kids. It's a hint to the next NDP leader to stop listening to the opportunistic cowardly spin doctors, take some bold stands of principle, and stick to them.

I'm not confident, but I'm always hopeful.

Stockholm

I think its overstating things to say that opposing the blockade in Caledonia makes anyone a "racist". I believe every single political figure in Quebec opposed the Oka blockade - I don't say that they were all racists (possibly some were - but there are planty of non-racist reasons to oppose illegal blockades).

I don't see the results of this byelection sending any message at all about religious school funding. The big winners were the Liberals - who support the status quo.In fact, 94% of voters voted for candidates who support the status quo on separate school funding - and I gather that the Green candidate said nothing about the issue either.

From what I can tell the byelection revolved around a backlash against Tory being parachuted in.

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