Federal election Polling - Abacus Data

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NorthReport
Federal election Polling - Abacus Data

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NorthReport

Party / Sep 14 '14 / Oct 17 '14 / Nov 4 '14 / Dec 20 '14 / Jan 28 '15 / Change 

Cons / 30% /30% /30% / 34% / 33% / Up 3%

NDP / 23% / 25% / 24% / 22% / 24% / Up 1%

Libs / 38% / 32% / 35% / 33% / 32% / Down 6%

BQ / 3% / 4% / 4% / 4% / 4% / Up 1%

NorthReport

Party / Sep 14 '14 / Oct 17 '14 / Nov 4 '14 / Dec 20 '14 / Jan 28 '15 / Feb 23 '15 / Change 

Cons / 30% /30% /30% / 34% / 33% / 35% / Up 5%

NDP / 23% / 25% / 24% / 22% / 24% / 21% / Down 2%

Libs / 38% / 32% / 35% / 33% / 32% / 34% / Down 4%

BQ / 3% / 4% / 4% / 4% / 4% / ? / ?

 

http://abacusdata.ca/conservatives-and-liberals-locked-in-dead-heat-eve-...

 

tducey1

Wow, seems like Trudeau's not the savior the Liberals thought he'd be. CPC minority for 2015 is my prediction.

terrytowel

tducey1 wrote:

Wow, seems like Trudeau's not the savior the Liberals thought he'd be. CPC minority for 2015 is my prediction.

I've been saying that since January, with the Cons strength in the West, there is no way they will lose. Only question is majority or minority

http://rabble.ca/babble/election-2015/harper-conservatives-poised-to-win...

alan smithee alan smithee's picture

Yeah..that CPC 'surge' in Québec is real. From 15% to 18%.Looking like a blue wave.

Debater

tducey1 wrote:

Wow, seems like Trudeau's not the savior the Liberals thought he'd be. CPC minority for 2015 is my prediction.

Trudeau's numbers are excellent.  He's keeping the Liberals competitive with an incumbent Prime Minister during war time!

It's Mulcair who has not turned out to be the saviour that the NDP thought he'd be.  The NDP is down 10 points from where it was several years ago and is barely staying above 20%.

scott16

Debater wrote:

tducey1 wrote:

Wow, seems like Trudeau's not the savior the Liberals thought he'd be. CPC minority for 2015 is my prediction.

Trudeau's numbers are excellent.  He's keeping the Liberals competitive with an incumbent Prime Minister during war time!

It's Mulcair who has not turned out to be the saviour that the NDP thought he'd be.  The NDP is down 10 points from where it was several years ago and is barely staying above 20%.

I will quote you from a different thread.

'll transcribe them here.  Abacus has National numbers for the leaders, but I don't see a regional breakdown.  In previous surveys, some pollsters have shown approval ratings by region (Mulcair has had high approval numbers in Quebec in the past, but usually low numbers in Ontario.)

HARPER

Negative - 40%

Positive - 34%

Neutral - 25%

MULCAIR

Negative - 20%

Positive - 28%

Neutral - 52%

-

TRUDEAU

Negative - 30%

Positive - 35%

Neutral - 35%

Are you assuming that the 52% neutral/Don't know will not like Mulcair or vote for someone else?

Don't you think the NDP numbers will go up when people find out about Mulcair or just tune in?

Debater

I'm not "assuming" anything about Mulcair's numbers.  It seems to be NDPers who are assuming a lot of things:

1.  Mulcair will win the debates

2.  Mulcair will become more popular during the election

3.  Mulcair will do well on the campaign trail

4.  Mulcair will do as well as Layton in Québec (if not better)

5.  Mulcair will have a breakthrough in Ontario

6.  Mulcair will do well in B.C.

7.  Mulcair will get an Orange Wave during the election

8.  Mulcair will beat Trudeau

9.  Mulcair will beat Harper and become P.M.

Those are the assumptions that NDPers have been making about Mulcair since he became NDP leader 3 years ago.  And I think it's possible that a couple of those things could happen.  Obviously campaigns matter and things can change.  Can Mulcair gain support during the election?  Of course he can.  All that I, or the political commentators have been saying is that it is unlikely, given present circumstances, that Mulcair can achieve all the above things that NDPers are assuming.

NorthReport

You can fill the threads with all the noise you want but it will not detract from the fact according to Abacus Data's recently released poll, the Trudeau Liberals are an unmittigated disaster in Ontario where the election will be won or lost. 

ajaykumar

instead of claiming that Trudeau is a disaster , please look at where the NDP is today. Instead of crying , go win an NDP majority. Don't criticize Trudeau because he is the better leader. In the best case scenario, The NDP is counting on remaining the 2nd party and hoping that it would be allowed to get to power through the back door. Well I am sorry,unless the NDP wins a minority government ,it shouldn't be allowed to form government with liberal support. Liberals had no right to form a coalition in 2008, after losing seats/support. If for some reason the NDP becomes official opposition again, but loses seats, it shouldn't form a coalition. The NDP, knowing that Harper won't allow a coalition, tricked the liberals into a coalition. This was partly the reason why some voters ended up voting for the NDP in 2011. They thought if NDP will be part of a government anyways, why not vote for it! Therefore, NDP should focus on winning a minority or a majority instead of attacking Trudeau 24/7/365.

Jacob Two-Two

I know, right? Can you believe people who actually want to evaluate Justin on his merits just because he wants to run the whole country? Talk about nitpicking! All these people who go on about how he has no skills, experience, accomplishments, or strength of character that one would need to do the job. Who cares? We should never, ever question Justin and always assume the best about him. I mean, personally I'm ready to follow ajay's lead and start worshipping him like a god.

welder welder's picture

ahem...Dear Leader/submission to authority complex in full effect...Wink

sherpa-finn

And just for the record, I'm not "assuming" anything about Trudeau's numbers.  It seems to be the Liberals who are assuming a lot of things:

1.  Trudeau will not fall flat on his face during the debates and by so doing exceed popular expectations

2.  Trudeau will be able to retain his celebrity-style popularity up until and then through the election

3.  Trudeau will do well on the campaign trail

4.  Trudeau will do better than Ignatieff in Québec

5.  Trudeau will have a breakthrough in Ontario

6.  Trudeau will do well in B.C. (remember, his Mum is from there)

7.  Trudeau will secure his Red Wave of support in the polls from 2014 through to voting day in 2015

8.  Trudeau will beat Mulcair

9.  Trudeau will beat Harper and become P.M.

Those are the assumptions that Liberals have been making about Trudeau since he became Liberal leader 2 years ago.  And I think it's possible that a couple of those things could happen.  (OK, I will give him #4.) Obviously campaigns matter and things can change.  Can Trudeau hold onto his high-levels of support up until and through the election?  Of course he can.  All that I, or political commentators have been saying is that it is unlikely, given present circumstances, that Trudeau can achieve all the above things that Liberals are assuming.

That was fun. Shall I do similar ones for Harper and Elizabeth May, too?

Debater

sherpa-finn, I don't mind that you imitated my post, because it makes my point about the assumptions that people sometimes make. Smile

All parties make some assumptions and calculations, but I think the NDP has been making more of them than the Liberals or the Conservatives.

I don't think all Liberals have necessarily expected that they can go from 3rd to 1st in one election.  They would like to do so, but most Liberals have been prepared for the fact that it may take 2 elections to form government again.  Win back the Official Opposition first, and then win back Government in the election after that.

That's the way most Liberals were planning in the year after the 2011 Election.  It was only in 2013 when Harper's numbers collapsed by more than expected and when the Duffy-Wright scandal hit and the Liberals remained ahead of Harper for so long that people began to contemplate the idea of winning the election outright in 2015.

And yes, please do similiar ones for Harper and May. Smile  Let's get the assumptions all the parties are making out in the open.  Makes a good exercise.

sherpa-finn

The distinguishing "assumption" between the NDP and the Liberals, Debater, - is reflected in our choices of party leaders.

NDP supporters assume that progressive policy commitments and hard work will make a political difference - both electorally and hopefully in better laws and policies - and perhaps even better lives for Canadians. To do that job, they picked an experienced, principled and capable leader (after a major internal debate and campaign) to move that work forward.  

Liberal supporters recognized that after the debacle of the Martin/Dion/Ignatieff years, and with no credibility on the policy front (Red Book memories, anyone?) they had nothing to lose by trying their luck with a celebrity candidate with no obvious qualifications but some very real charisma. So they crowned an attractive young, political heir.  (that's with an 'e')  And came flocking back to the party in hope of teh restoration of their historical entitlements to power and treasure.

Hey, I do not know who will prevail come election day, - and I admit that somedays I fear for the worst. But all I can say is I know which set of assumptions I prefer, for what they say about me, about the black art of politics and about Canadians. 

NorthReport

So what's happened to the Trudeau Liberals in Ontario for those who are not in denial, as theTrudeau Liberals are definitely crashing and burning there?

What are the main reasons for the Trudeau Liberals decline?

 

ajaykumar

Actually the only NDP assumption is that Trudeau will lose the debate. big DEAL! most people don't watch debates, they are busy watching the Simpsons. And debates don't matter. Obama lost the debate to Romney. other debate losers include Brian Gallant, Christy Clark, Kathleen wynne,phillipe Couillard. they are all Liberal Premiers.Plus, NOONE with a beard has been elected the leader of USA/Canada in like a century. looks matter folks! oh I forgot John Tory lost the debates too. 

Rokossovsky

I don't remember John Tory breaking down crying during any of the civic debates. You have Youtube of that?

NorthReport

YIKES: CHECK OUT THE ONTARIO NUMBERS (UPDATED)

AbacusFeb20

42 for the Cons, 34 for the Grits. Hmm.

Looks like the CPC Quebec surge isn’t a myth, after all. Has happened.  Wow.

All weird, IMHO, when you look at “direction of the country” finding.

More here.

What’s your take, Dear Reader?

UPDATE: The impressive Dr. Coletto says this chart is the most interesting and, on reflection, he’s right: Harper has erased a 15-point Trudeau lead since August of last year. What’s even more interesting is this: it’s all happened before – ten years ago, when Paul Martin kicked off his Mad As Hell Tour. Even more, more interesting? Some of the folks from 2004-2005 are back running the show in 2015!

http://warrenkinsella.com/2015/02/yikes-check-out-the-ontario-numbers/

 

NorthReport

Significant enough to be worth repeating.

NorthReport wrote:

YIKES: CHECK OUT THE ONTARIO NUMBERS (UPDATED)

AbacusFeb20

42 for the Cons, 34 for the Grits. Hmm.

Looks like the CPC Quebec surge isn’t a myth, after all. Has happened.  Wow.

All weird, IMHO, when you look at “direction of the country” finding.

More here.

What’s your take, Dear Reader?

UPDATE: The impressive Dr. Coletto says this chart is the most interesting and, on reflection, he’s right: Harper has erased a 15-point Trudeau lead since August of last year. What’s even more interesting is this: it’s all happened before – ten years ago, when Paul Martin kicked off his Mad As Hell Tour. Even more, more interesting? Some of the folks from 2004-2005 are back running the show in 2015!

http://warrenkinsella.com/2015/02/yikes-check-out-the-ontario-numbers/

 

ajaykumar

Rokossovsky wrote:

I don't remember John Tory breaking down crying during any of the civic debates. You have Youtube of that?

he lost the debates though.

NorthReport

sigh

Debater

NorthReport wrote:

So what's happened to the Trudeau Liberals in Ontario for those who are not in denial, as theTrudeau Liberals are definitely crashing and burning there?

What are the main reasons for the Trudeau Liberals decline?

Decline?

The Liberals are up about 10 points in Ontario from the last election.  That means they are currently set to win a large whack of seats.  Meanwhile the NDP are down from 2011, as are the CPC.

And who's to say that the Abacus numbers are even the correct ones?

All this was absent from your analysis.

ajaykumar

Debater wrote:

NorthReport wrote:

So what's happened to the Trudeau Liberals in Ontario for those who are not in denial, as theTrudeau Liberals are definitely crashing and burning there?

What are the main reasons for the Trudeau Liberals decline?

Decline?

The Liberals are up about 10 points in Ontario from the last election.  That means they are currently set to win a large whack of seats.  Meanwhile the NDP are down from 2011, as are the CPC.

And who's to say that the Abacus numbers are even the correct ones?

All this was absent from your analysis.

abacus number in Ontario are wrong. but what is funny is that NDPers always happy to state that Trudeaus numbers are declining, but never mention where there party is. at most NDp wins 60 seats!

montrealer58 montrealer58's picture

Do not believe the Liberal lies that the Liberals would support the NDP in an NDP minority government. No Minority NDP government throne speech would EVER pass. As under Martin, Dion, Ignatieff, and now Trudeau, Liberals will always be the third leg of the Conservatives. The NDP will either be in opposition or it will have a majority government. Majority is not likely now, but the NDP is used to this.

Trying to provoke NDP supporters with idiotic partisan smears is going to have a reverse effect.

ajaykumar

montrealer58 wrote:

Do not believe the Liberal lies that the Liberals would support the NDP in an NDP minority government. No Minority NDP government throne speech would EVER pass. As under Martin, Dion, Ignatieff, and now Trudeau, Liberals will always be the third leg of the Conservatives. The NDP will either be in opposition or it will have a majority government. Majority is not likely now, but the NDP is used to this.

Trying to provoke NDP supporters with idiotic partisan smears is going to have a reverse effect.

Liberals would never support the NDP in a minority situation why? NDP is a protest party, angry all the time, never happy, and too divise. Liberal party is a fun party, happy all the time, always looking for the positive things in life. There will be no coalition with LPC Prime Minister or an NDP prime minister. If the Liberal win a minority, it will survive on a vote by vote basis. If its an NDP minority it will survive on a vote by vote basis. 

Marco C

If I might inject some insight into the argument.

 

Firstly polls in Canada suck some pollsters are bias others are just plain bad. That said polls are just snaps of a moment at best. However for the moment let forget all that and look back at the last elections in 2011...

Actually let look eight before E-day

                                                                                    C         L

EKOS Research Associates

October 19, 2010

 

Con 30.9

Lib  29.4

NDP 13.9

BQ  11.2

Grn  11.6

±2.5 pp (c=95%)

Harris-Decima

October 17, 2010

Con 32

Lib  30

NDP 14

BQ 10

Grn 10

±2.2 pp (c=95%)

EKOS Research Associates

October 12, 2010

Con 34.4

Lib  27.8

NDP 15.8

BQ  9.3

Grn 10.4

±2.5 pp (c=95%)

Nanos Research

October 6, 2010

Con 36.6

Lib  32.4

NDP 16.3

BQ 9.8

Grn 4.9

±3.4 pp (c=95%)

EKOS Research Associates

October 5, 2010

Con 31.8

Lib  27.6

NDP 16.5

BQ   9.7

Grn  11.2

±2.0 pp (c=95%)

 

Marco C

First, we close to where we were at the same time befor the last election.

 

Second, campaigns mater and that means getting involved and not just posting on babble so please if you're an NDP supporter and not donating and volunteering do so now.

 

Lastly to to our liberal trolls... friends... being cocky about polling isn't the best bet seeing are your polling the same eight months out and the NDP is about 9 points higher.

Debater

The NDP is at about 20% right now.  (See the latest National average on Eric Grenier's site here:)  

http://www.threehundredeight.com/p/canada.html

So the NDP is NOT 9 points higher than it was going into the 2011 Election.

And what's important is to look at what has changed SINCE the 2011 Election.  The NDP is about 10 points LOWER than it was on May 2, 2011.  Meanwhile the Liberals are about 15 points HIGHER than during the 2011 Election.

No one is making any definitive predictions about the next election, but ignoring all the changes of the last 4 years does not make any sense.

Jacob Two-Two

You're the one who is ignoring changes. Last election does not correspond to right now. It will correspond only to the next election itself. What's happening right now corresponds to the pre-election period of last election, not the election itself. A child could see that but you will never admit it. Comparing this pre-election period to the last pre-election period, it is clear that the NDP are heading in stronger than last time. Stronger than any time in their history, in fact.

montrealer58 montrealer58's picture

You have to measure equivalent time periods to have any intellectual honesty at all. Liberals need lessons on intellectual honesty as it is not part of their nature.

At 20%, the NDP has kept its core. NDP voters know that no other party will deal with them, or if they say they will, they are just typical political lying liars who lie. So the NDP is going to be a majority government, or nothing at all. There will be no slithering around with Liberals and Conservatives, because the Liberals and Conservatives are more eagre to please each other than the interests of working Canadians.

ajaykumar

Folks all the polling data will be useless on election day. When boundaries change, weird result are produced. Just look at the New Brunswick election. The GOTV will be all that matters, and the NDP has the best GOTV. It even calls me on election day ,asking if I need a ride to the polling station. And last year, the ONDP put a lawn sign in my house, although I never found out who ordered it. the liberals also have a good gotv team now, with all the new volunteers.I myself will contribute to the Liberal GOTV effort, by liking the LPC's facebook page.   LPC supporters will have a disadvantage because they will get robocalls, and will spend the election day circling their towns, trying to find their polling station. They election will be over before they find their polling station. The cons dont need a gotv because its supporters are too freaked out, and so they line up  a week before the election. The green GOTV is too nice, and so noone bothers with them. 

montrealer58 montrealer58's picture

The exhaustive way to do GOTV is old Labour. You are assigned a polling station. In your morning run, you leave VOTE AT card with all of your declared supporters and see if you can roust anyone. After Lunch you do another round. If people need help with cars you call them in to the local Home Centre or the campaign centre. You are not satisfied until every name is crossed off of your list. 

A lady said at her house that she had voted and I said "Madam, no you have not. I have the list right here." She came in about 20 minutes later. In that election where my candidate was destroyed I won that poll by 1 vote, and the scrutineers from the other parties said I had earned it. 

When I finally called in the poll numbers (the count got screwed up and we had to wait longer) from a payphone they had all deserted the campaign office. 

Debater

Jacob Two-Two wrote:
You're the one who is ignoring changes. Last election does not correspond to right now. It will correspond only to the next election itself. What's happening right now corresponds to the pre-election period of last election, not the election itself. A child could see that but you will never admit it. Comparing this pre-election period to the last pre-election period, it is clear that the NDP are heading in stronger than last time. Stronger than any time in their history, in fact.

I've always said that the NDP would be competitive in 2015 and that I think they still have the potential to win a much larger number of seats than their historical norm.

All that has been pointed out by me and numerous other people in the political world over the past couple years is that the NDP has lost a lot of ground since the last election and is not in the place where it wanted (or needed) to be going into the 2015 election.

The NDP needed to be ahead in the polls, the victor in the by-elections, higher in fundraising, etc. if it was going to have a good chance of beating Harper in 2015.  It has failed to do any of those things thus far.  It has also struggled not only to beat Harper, but to beat Trudeau.

So while anything can happen during the election and an NDP increase is certainly possible, it becomes a harder hill to climb when it is starting from farther back.

That's all anyone is trying to get across to the NDP supporters.

NorthReport

Abacus Data

Party / Sep 14 '14 / Oct 17 '14 / Nov 4 '14 / Dec 20 '14 / Jan 28 '15 / Feb 23 '15 / Change 

Cons / 30% /30% /30% / 34% / 33% / 35% / Up 5%

NDP / 23% / 25% / 24% / 22% / 24% / 21% / Down 2%

Libs / 38% / 32% / 35% / 33% / 32% / 34% / Down 4%

BQ / 3% / 4% / 4% / 4% / 4% / ? / ?

 

http://abacusdata.ca/conservatives-and-liberals-locked-in-dead-heat-eve-...

Debater

NorthReport

News coming here in the next post that does not look good for Justin - but what do you think?

Abacus Data

Party / Sep 14 '14 / Oct 17 '14 / Nov 4 '14 / Dec 20 '14 / Jan 28 '15 / Feb 23 '15 / Change 

Cons / 30% /30% /30% / 34% / 33% / 35% / Up 5%

NDP / 23% / 25% / 24% / 22% / 24% / 21% / Down 2%

Libs / 38% / 32% / 35% / 33% / 32% / 34% / Down 4%

BQ / 3% / 4% / 4% / 4% / 4% / ? / ?

 

 

NorthReport

This kinda puts out to pasture a lot of the current polling that our mainstream press inevitably drag out prior and during each election, election after election.

Trudeau’s inevitability slipped 15 points, and that’s a lot

 

Abacus Data released an important poll a few days ago, and you can bet Stephen Harper clipped it out of the paper to keep in his wallet for use with caucus Nervous Nellies. Most of us focused on the tail end of the poll, which showed an equal number of Canadians predicting a Conservative or Liberal election victory. Ipsos came out with a horse race poll a few days later, showing sort of the same thing: the Grits and the Tories were tied in support. 

But that was the tail. The head of Abacus’ poll showed something else entirely. It showed that, between last August and now, Justin Trudeau’s inevitability had slipped 15 percentage points. That is, a lot fewer folks expected him to win, now. 

Fifteen points.

That’s a lot. The last time that number happened to the Liberal Party of Canada, in fact, was a decade ago. Remember? Paul Martin commenced his “Mad As Hell” tour, and persuaded millions of Canadians to get mad as hell, too—at him. He promptly dropped 15 points and never recovered. 

Justin Trudeau, according to Abacus and others, has done something similar, albeit less dramatically. Since August, he has slowly, surely, and incrementally, lost the aura invincibility that once clung to him like a seal fur coat.

 

https://www.hilltimes.com/opinion-piece/2015/03/02/trudeaus-inevitabilit...

NorthReport

Trudeau faces great risk in debate about Canada’s military mission

Bruce Anderson is the chairman of polling firm Abacus Data,

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/trudeau-faces-great-risk-in...

Pondering

NorthReport wrote:

Trudeau faces great risk in debate about Canada’s military mission

Bruce Anderson is the chairman of polling firm Abacus Data,

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/trudeau-faces-great-risk-in...

He also said:

The more detailed ideas Mr. Trudeau laid out in his speeches about the mission many Canadians would likely find worth considering, but few probably ever heard. Being third in the House and first in the polls means it’s easy to get drowned out or shouted down. ....

Here’s Trudeau the younger commenting on the run-up to the invasion of Iraq: “Let us never forget how that mission was sold….with overheated, moralistic rhetoric that obscured very real flaws in the strategy and the plan to implement it.”

We’re well served when leaders advocate for the ideas they truly believe are best, whether or not they are an easy sell. For Justin Trudeau, the next debate on how to handle this threat is a new opportunity to be heard. What he does with it will tell us more about who he is and what kind of Prime Minister he would be.

 

NorthReport

Abacus Data

Party / Sep 14 '14 / Oct 17 '14 / Nov 4 '14 / Dec 20 '14 / Jan 28 '15 / Feb 23 '15 / Change 

Cons / 30% /30% /30% / 34% / 33% / 35% / Up 5%

NDP / 23% / 25% / 24% / 22% / 24% / 21% / Down 2%

Libs / 38% / 32% / 35% / 33% / 32% / 34% / Down 4%

BQ / 3% / 4% / 4% / 4% / 4% / ? / ?

 

 

NorthReport

Feb 25, 2015

Abacus Data

Newfoundland and Labrador

Cons - 23%

NDP - 16%

Libs - 58%

http://abacusdata.ca/provincial-and-federal-liberals-have-a-big-lead-in-...

Debater

Why did you list the Liberals last in the new Abacus poll for Newfoundland & Labrador even though they are in first place? 

Just an oversight, I assume? Innocent

NorthReport

Could not agree more that the seat projections Debater keeps waving around are probably quite misleading, wasting everyone's time, and being done with one purpose in mind, which is to try and manipulate the voters. Ya think! 

Quote:
For the Conservatives, these results are the latest indication of improving competitiveness, including in Quebec and Ontario. We have seen numbers swing back and forth a bit in Ontario in some of our more recent unpublished polls, which underscores the value of studying aggregations and averages over time rather than trying to provide seat projections at this time.

http://abacusdata.ca/conservatives-and-liberals-locked-in-dead-heat-eve-...

nicky

From the Abacus Newfoundland poll cited by NR:

Near the end of the survey, respondents were asked who – NDP MP Ryan Cleary or Liberal candidate Seamus O’Regan running in St. John’s South-Mount Pearl – would they rather see representing NL ‘s interests in Ottawa.  Cleary edged out O’Regan across the province 40% to 36%.  On the Avalon Peninsula and in St. John’s Cleary’s lead was six-points over O’Regan. - See more at: http://abacusdata.ca/provincial-and-federal-liberals-have-a-big-lead-in-...

 

It looks like Clery will beat Trudeau's pal and handpicked candidate o"reagan.

NorthReport

Just following proper political protocol as wikipedia does.

Liberals are so used to manipulating the message they have a difficult time understanding difference between what's proper and what is manipulation. Frown 

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_42nd_Canadian_feder...

 

Debater wrote:

Why did you list the Liberals last 

Just an oversight, I assume? Innocent

NorthReport

February 16, 2015

Abacus Data

Party / Sep 14 '14 / Oct 17 '14 / Nov 4 '14 / Dec 20 '14 / Jan 28 '15 / Feb 23 '15 / Change 

Cons / 30% /30% /30% / 34% / 33% / 35% / Up 5%

NDP / 23% / 25% / 24% / 22% / 24% / 21% / Down 2%

Libs / 38% / 32% / 35% / 33% / 32% / 34% / Down 4%

BQ / 3% / 4% / 4% / 4% / 4% / ? / ?

 

 

 

Debater

Well, it would be more accurate to say that Cleary is competitive and that his name factor is preventing him from getting swept up in the Liberal tide so far.

But most political observers know better than to predict what will happen in a riding 6 months out from an election based on one riding poll with a big margin of error when the lead is only about 6 points and when that candidate is running for a party that has far less support overall.

Pondering

nicky wrote:

From the Abacus Newfoundland poll cited by NR:

Near the end of the survey, respondents were asked who – NDP MP Ryan Cleary or Liberal candidate Seamus O’Regan running in St. John’s South-Mount Pearl – would they rather see representing NL ‘s interests in Ottawa.  Cleary edged out O’Regan across the province 40% to 36%.  On the Avalon Peninsula and in St. John’s Cleary’s lead was six-points over O’Regan. - See more at: http://abacusdata.ca/provincial-and-federal-liberals-have-a-big-lead-in-...

 

It looks like Clery will beat Trudeau's pal and handpicked candidate o"reagan.

That depends on if they are voting for the local candidate or for the Prime Minister. Many people vote based on who they want federally regardless of who represents them locally. Having said that I have no problem with the NDP taking a seat as long as the Conservatives don't. The goal for me is to drive Conservative numbers down. If the NDP can take a seat anywhere including from the Liberals more power to them.

Debater

The question is curiously worded because it doesn't actually ask which party the voters in St. John's South-Mount Pearl will vote for.  It asks about the candidates themselves and about who they would prefer to represent Newfoundland's interests in Ottawa.

So it could be that Cleary is viewed as having better local connections so far than O'Regan who had been away from Newfoundland for several years working for CTV in Toronto.

This means that if O'Regan can do better on this category over time, he could erase Cleary's lead in this category.

And since most Newfoundlanders support the Liberals over the NDP, the party advantage may push O'Regan over the edge.

So it looks like a close race.

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