Federal election Polling - Abacus Data

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NorthReport

As usual there is zero substance to back up this absurdity. 

Debater wrote:

The NDP has indeed been trending up during 2015, but it seems to be topping out now.  The NDP finds it tough to get above 30% in these polls.

 

Debater

As usual, you appear to do nothing else than attack people when they point out facts about the numbers.

The NDP has decent numbers right now, but it is not at 40% or even at 35%.

Even though there has been the big bump coming out of the Alberta Election, it has been difficult to overtake the Cons in these polls

That means that the NDP needs to go up another level in the months ahead.

Sean in Ottawa

Debater wrote:

As usual, you appear to do nothing else than attack people when they point out facts about the numbers.

The NDP has decent numbers right now, but it is not at 40% or even at 35%.

Even though there has been the big bump coming out of the Alberta Election, it has been difficult to overtake the Cons in these polls

That means that the NDP needs to go up another level in the months ahead.

The problem is you are looking at a trend and then claiming without any support that it stops here.

The NDP is in new territory for many reasons. There is no fair presumption about what happens next. Your comments were dripping with bias.

Yes the NDP needs to up another level -- but it is the only party with positive momentum right now and has just made huge increases. There is not any reason to assume the NDP is in any less of a position to increase from here than ny other party.

To say it has been difficult to overtake the Cosnervatives is silly the trend is recent and dramatic.

Debater

I didn't say that the trend will stop here. Smile

I just recommended exercising some caution & insight when looking at the numbers.

I noticed that 3 years ago when Mulcair was ahead of Harper for a few months in the Spring of 2012 during his Leadership honeymoon that the NDP numbers also didn't get above the high 30's or near 40.

The NDP has found it challenging to get the type of numbers that Trudeau had at his height or that Harper has had in the past.

That doesn't mean it can't go higher - just that it's something to keep note of.

Rokossovsky

No doubt about it for Thomas Mulcair this will be one of the defining moments of the campaign, and expectation will be greater, as the public becomes more aware.

I think sticking with the low key solid approach that has gotten him this far should keep him going til campaign kick-off. I wouldn't want them to peak too soon.

nicky

I think Debater is right in observing that the recent NDP spurt seems to have settled at about 30% (a consistent 28 to 31% in the five or six most recent polls).

But I also think that the Liberal vote, curently at a similar level, is very soft, particulalry with misgivings growing about Justin. It could hold together on a wing and a prayer but it is currently wavering and looking around with the NDP well placed should the Liberals collapse.

Harper may have a pretty solid 30% floor but his ceiling isn't much higher. The NDP's is.

Yesterday's Abacus has the NDP being "considered" by 56%, the Liberals by 51% and the Cons only by 45%.

Sean in Ottawa

I don't buy that there is a ceiling -- certainly the Nanos numbers are telling you that.

The point is the NDP has not got above this level before but that does not mean it is a barrier. They have also seldom been here before. This is the fourth time.

The first under Broadbent they got all the way to the 40s and then blew the election.

The second time under Layton they kept going into the mid 30s after the election and then slid back when Layton became ill and stepped back.

The third time they got to about 30 and stopped under Mulcair as JT was starting his leadership run.

This time this is where they are but they just got here.

No, there is no reason to think the NDP can't go further. Nor is there any guarantee they will or can stay there.

This speculation about a ceiling is Liberal propaganda and it is bullshit. Debater, this is why I am suspicious of your conversion. Same level of bias as usual.

TiradeFaction

Sean in Ottawa wrote:
The first under Broadbent they got all the way to the 40s and then blew the election.

How did Broadbent blow the election? Not disagreeing with you, just curious about the history of it.

Sean in Ottawa

TiradeFaction wrote:

Sean in Ottawa wrote:
The first under Broadbent they got all the way to the 40s and then blew the election.

How did Broadbent blow the election? Not disagreeing with you, just curious about the history of it.

I was volunteer with the NDP during the 1988 election. Blew it in two ways:

1) failure to recognize Free Trade as the essential issue and let the Liberals run with that

2) failure to address economics: the national office person I spoke described it like this -- we will play to our strengths -- in short the NDP ran the 1988 election on the concept that Ed was a nice guy.

That election was within reach the NDP blew it completely with a horrible campaign deserving of third party status. It was in many respects the loss of an opportunity of a generation.

The NDP has to have the guts to speak to all issues not just leader being a nice guy, being pro environment (another 1988 theme) but also bread and butter economic issues.

And it has to address the big ones -- not just things like bank fees. This is why I am happier with Mulcair. He at least is dealing with bigger -- life changing -- issues. National Childcare, pharmacare , pension age, employment. We need to talk about these things.

And justice for Aboriginal Canadians. You have to speak to this to get my vote at all.

Nice guys do finish last.

socialdemocrati...

This is the problem with political junkies.

This 3-way 30% tie is only as old as THREE WEEKS.

For us it's old news. But there's still a lot of voters that haven't even heard.

Go outside. Watch a movie. Read a damn book. 

Polls change. For the latest NDP bump, there was an earlier rebound before and during the Alberta election. That small bump of 4 points in April was followed with another bump of 7 points in May, after the story about the historic win.

The polls will change again. But it will depend on when the next story breaks. Will it be:

  • Another political gaffe?
  • A big revelation in the Senate scandal?
  • An international incident?

Until then, get a life.

Rokossovsky

My mother, an NDP supporter from the 70s, had no idea there was any polling showing the NDP tied for first, with potentially a small lead.

She was delighted when I told her, but this is going to take some time to sink in. Once it does, the "tactical voting" sentiments may change drastically.

socialdemocrati...

... and that might be the story that causes the next shift in the polls.

 

Rokossovsky

Yes.

Rokossovsky

Fans of "Prop Rep" should be dlighted in the fact that if the polling stays as it is on election day, the sitting parliament will likely be the most statistically representative of party preference in Canadian history.

Cool

Pierre C yr

Its too early to  see where the trendlines are going to say the NDP has hit a ceiling. Id wait another month before saying that.

bekayne

Sean in Ottawa wrote:

The third time they got to about 30 and stopped under Mulcair as JT was starting his leadership run.

From Mar 27 to Sept 23, 2012 they averaged 34% and got as high as 38%

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_42nd_Canadian_feder...

Sean in Ottawa

bekayne wrote:

Sean in Ottawa wrote:

The third time they got to about 30 and stopped under Mulcair as JT was starting his leadership run.

From Mar 27 to Sept 23, 2012 they averaged 34% and got as high as 38%

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_42nd_Canadian_feder...

ok there you go so the NDP never has stopped at 30%.

Interesting Liberal talking point that there is a ceiling at 30% then isn't it?

Perhaps Liberals want to think this way because they want to think that 18% is a floor for them and they cannot go lower.

I bet they can.

Charles

We always forget that brief period in '91 when the NDP soared to the top, and if I'm not mistaken got as high at high 30s/low 40s when they were still on a post Ontario high and then won landslides in BC and SK and started showing real signs of life in QC (after winning Chambly, they were poised to win Laurier St Marie with a great candidate in Lousie O Neil before Charlottown and the rise of the Bloc). Easy to forget with all the horrors that happened after between the turn of tides in BC and ON and the disasterous leadership of Audrey McLaughlin but that may have been their all time polling high.

Sean in Ottawa wrote:

I don't buy that there is a ceiling -- certainly the Nanos numbers are telling you that.

The point is the NDP has not got above this level before but that does not mean it is a barrier. They have also seldom been here before. This is the fourth time.

The first under Broadbent they got all the way to the 40s and then blew the election.

The second time under Layton they kept going into the mid 30s after the election and then slid back when Layton became ill and stepped back.

The third time they got to about 30 and stopped under Mulcair as JT was starting his leadership run.

This time this is where they are but they just got here.

No, there is no reason to think the NDP can't go further. Nor is there any guarantee they will or can stay there.

This speculation about a ceiling is Liberal propaganda and it is bullshit. Debater, this is why I am suspicious of your conversion. Same level of bias as usual.

Sean in Ottawa

Charles wrote:

We always forget that brief period in '91 when the NDP soared to the top, and if I'm not mistaken got as high at high 30s/low 40s when they were still on a post Ontario high and then won landslides in BC and SK and started showing real signs of life in QC (after winning Chambly, they were poised to win Laurier St Marie with a great candidate in Lousie O Neil before Charlottown and the rise of the Bloc). Easy to forget with all the horrors that happened after between the turn of tides in BC and ON and the disasterous leadership of Audrey McLaughlin but that may have been their all time polling high.

Sean in Ottawa wrote:

I don't buy that there is a ceiling -- certainly the Nanos numbers are telling you that.

The point is the NDP has not got above this level before but that does not mean it is a barrier. They have also seldom been here before. This is the fourth time.

The first under Broadbent they got all the way to the 40s and then blew the election.

The second time under Layton they kept going into the mid 30s after the election and then slid back when Layton became ill and stepped back.

The third time they got to about 30 and stopped under Mulcair as JT was starting his leadership run.

This time this is where they are but they just got here.

No, there is no reason to think the NDP can't go further. Nor is there any guarantee they will or can stay there.

This speculation about a ceiling is Liberal propaganda and it is bullshit. Debater, this is why I am suspicious of your conversion. Same level of bias as usual.

Indeed I forgot about that one.

Again another indication that there is no ceiling for the NDP at 30%.

socialdemocrati...

Right. The argument that this is a ceiling is stupid. The polls haven't moved for 3 weeks! Try 3 years.

There are two obvious arguments against a ceiling:

 

NorthReport

Debater's Liberal spin is tiresome.

Remember his arguments that the NDP was not polling at 20% support

Remember his arguments that the NDP was not polling in the mid-twenties

Now that the Liberals are last in the polls, he argues that the NDP who are exhibiting great momentum, have maxed out.

We can safely assume that we will get more Liberal nonsense when the NDP are being forecast to win a majority government. 

 

 

DaveW

Rokossovsky wrote:

My mother, an NDP supporter from the 70s, had no idea there was any polling showing the NDP tied for first, with potentially a small lead.

She was delighted when I told her, but this is going to take some time to sink in. Once it does, the "tactical voting" sentiments may change drastically.

I had the "NDP gets 18-20 per cent nationally" mantra beaten in so deeply (I am a '70s guy) that I took as given that 2011 was a one-time event;

when Justin was elected leader, I thought: here we go, sure enough the numbers dropped in QC

but sometimes, things actually DO change....

 

socialdemocrati...

Growing up, my parents used to make cracks about the NDP as a scary fringe party. But these days, they treat them as a serious and competent option, and think the leadership (Horwath, Mulcair) has good ideas (like taxing the wealthiest, and raising the minimum wage). For better or for worse, the party has professionalized and modernized itself under Jack Layton. The attitude towards the NDP has definitely changed. I believe the votes will follow -- eventually.

mark_alfred

socialdemocraticmiddle wrote:

Growing up, my parents used to make cracks about the NDP as a scary fringe party. But these days, they treat them as a serious and competent option, and think the leadership (Horwath, Mulcair) has good ideas (like taxing the wealthiest, and raising the minimum wage). For better or for worse, the party has professionalized and modernized itself under Jack Layton. The attitude towards the NDP has definitely changed. I believe the votes will follow -- eventually.

Well said.

Jacob Two-Two

Eventually is happening right now. The impossible has already come to pass in Alberta, and Unless Justin gets a whole lot more impressive in the campaign then the writing is on the wall for the federal election too.

Think that won't make a difference to the next Ontario election? Think that, when once again faced with two unpalatable options, the electorate will still be afraid to try the NDP? Ontario and BC are soon to follow.

I think we're seeing the beginning of an NDP era, here, and a corresponding hard shift to the left in the public consciousness. Things are at a head, is all. The people are finally sick of being lied to.

Sean in Ottawa

Jacob Two-Two wrote:

Eventually is happening right now. The impossible has already come to pass in Alberta, and Unless Justin gets a whole lot more impressive in the campaign then the writing is on the wall for the federal election too.

Think that won't make a difference to the next Ontario election? Think that, when once again faced with two unpalatable options, the electorate will still be afraid to try the NDP? Ontario and BC are soon to follow.

I think we're seeing the beginning of an NDP era, here, and a corresponding hard shift to the left in the public consciousness. Things are at a head, is all. The people are finally sick of being lied to.

I don't take anything for granted but it is possible.

You can expect the others to fight hard though and every dirty trick in the book.

I still remember 1990 going to Toronto and the NDP had not yet brought in a budget but the new GST was hated. The billboards said "Taxed off at Bob Rae"

Many people believed that the Provincial NDP were responsible for the federal Conservative tax.

This is what huge advertising budgets can buy.

Technically the ads did not lie -- they did not really say anything but the impression was clear and it worked.

mark_alfred

The breaking of the assumption of a higher bedrock of solid support for the CPC is interesting.  I myself have often felt that 30% of the population are definitely in the Cons camp, and will always be.  I figured that 3 out of 10 people are highly patriotic types who value loyalty and honour above all else, and I figured that 15% are charitable types who value egalitarianism, compassion, and rehabilitation above all else.  55% are flexible and can go either way.  Thus, I figured that the Cons had a lock on 30% of the population, the NDP on 15%, and the rest was up for grabs. 

The numbers I give above just come from my own noodle, and so have no significance whatsoever in the world outside my brain.  But, given these thoughts of mine, I found the following quite interesting (from the recent abacus poll):

Abacus wrote:
One way to interpret this is that the resolute CPC vote is 9% today, 3 points higher than that of the NDP or Liberals, but not exactly large.

Seems it's time for me to revisit my previous beliefs, or at least time to revisit the numbers I had pegged to the two groupings of people (IE, 9% and 6% rather than 30% and 15%).  I still figure that there are people who default to either egalitarianism or patriotism/honour, but even people within these two camps can opt for change (IE, they can say "my team isn't performing well -- time to shake stuff up and opt for the other side for a bit"). 

NorthReport

Didn't say anything when it first came out, but my hunch was that Abacus had seriously overestimated the Liberal support and underestimated the NDP support, both at 28% in their latest poll. 

The EKOS poll out today suggests that hunch may have be correct.

---------------------

2,000

socialdemocrati...

Keep in mind that Nanos's poll uses a much larger "window'. When the NDP was polling at 25 in mid-May, it's because more than half of their opinion poll came from the month of April. Now that the Nanos poll is polling the end of May, it's still using results from early May. If you want to use Nanos to compare to anything, you should compare them to the numbers from 3 weeks ago, or so.

NorthReport

nicky, my hunch is that Abacus Data is coming out with a NL poll soon because AC might be the only area on the planet where Liberals still have a chance at present. 

nicky

David Colleto tweeted that the NL federal poll will be released on Thursday. I wouldn't be so sure it is good news for the liberals.

NorthReport

Interesting that Abacus Data puts out a poll, the only place in Canada, with results like this.  Wink

Abacus Data  - N&L - Jun 21 '15

 

Party / Mar '15 / Jun 21 '15 / Change

NDP / 16% / 28% / Up 12%

Cons / 23% / 15%  Down 8%

Libs / 58% / 53% / Down 5%

 

http://abacusdata.ca/federal-liberals-led-by-25-in-newfoundland-and-labr...

NorthReport

What Abacus is not showing in their headlines which is what most peope read.

A much more appropriate headline would be:

NDP surge, while Conservatives and Liberals drop 

Abacus - Jul 8

Party / May 31 / Jul 8 / Change

NDP - 28% / 32% /  Up 4%

Cons - 31% / 29% / Down 2%

Libs - 28% / 27% / Down 1%

http://abacusdata.ca/canadian-politics-5-points-separate-3-contenders-ne...

nicky

Abacus seems right in the middle of the recent polling.The NDP can take heart, not just from a consistent narrow first place lead, but because:

1. It is the most frequently mentioned second choice, overwhelmingly so among Bloc and Liberal voters and about even with the Liberals with Conservative voters.

2. Justin's standing continues its slow decline, notwithstanding the recent publicity blitz. He runs behind his party and may drag it down.

3. Tom is the clear first choice in approval ratings and has now moved up to first choice as PM. He runs ahead of his party.

4. The NDP's universe is greater than the other parties' and the gap is growing.

5. The Greens are slipping badly and stand to do less vote-splitting mischief.

6. Duceppe has not had the impact his party hoped.

7. The dislike of Harper is palpable, even visceral, creating a probable ABC wave that, given 1-6, may well coalesce behind the NDP and produce a much greater lead.

 

nicky

....and

8. The NDP is clearly winning the battle with the Liberals as being the party of "change."

mark_alfred

nicky wrote:

....and

8. The NDP is clearly winning the battle with the Liberals as being the party of "change."

Yeah, despite Boy Wonder buying the domain name and donning his "realchange" cape.  Poor guy.  Sad really.

David Young

Let's hope that Harper's recent slew of patronage appointments will remind Canadians about a certain Trudeau's similar orgy of appointments in 1984!

Would he dare fill the 22 vacant Senate seats too?

 

NorthReport

Quite the trend line.

image 1 of 8previousnextclose

http://abacusdata.ca/canadian-politics-5-points-separate-3-contenders-ne...

Jacob Two-Two

Interesting abacus poll. Commanding leads in Quebec and BC, which are also the only two provinces where a majority expect the NDP to win the next election. When Ontario figures out that the NDP are the real contender, they'll move into the lead there too. An NDP victory is looking more and more inevitable.

Marco C

Please don't use the word inevitable.

 

I'm not superstitious but I don't want to jinx anything, there a long hard fight before election night and no one should sit on the side lines thinking the election is in the bag.

 

The situation is as it always has been, Harper and the Cons are still in power, the Liberals aren't dead yet and both the respective MSM supporters are out in force trying to stop the NDP with every dirty trick in the book. Don't get over confident or relaxed, the marathon is almost over but there's still a sprint to the finish line!

socialdemocrati...

According to this week's Abacus numbers, and punching them into the TCTC model. The seat totals are:

  • NDP: 126
  • Cons: 118
  • Libs: 90
  • Bloc: 3
  • Green: 1

Regional analysis:

  • Liberals take 2/3 of Atlantic
  • NDP takes 2/3 of Quebec
  • Con/Lib/NDP split around 35%/30%/25%
  • Cons take 1/2 of Prairies
  • Cons take 80+% of Alberta
  • NDP takes 1/2 of BC

Pretty consistent with the past few weeks of polling, with minor variations.

NorthReport
mark_alfred

A higher proportion of them prefer the NDP, yet from the votes cast, a higher proportion of them voted CPC.  Meaning that a large number of those millennials who favoured the NDP did not vote.  This has to change.

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