Gilles Duceppe .... he's baaaaaack! (Really?)

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Sean in Ottawa

Even a modest improvement for the BQ is a problem. And it is certainly possible. I am worried by those who dismiss this as a threat.

Brachina

 Gilles should have won the Bloc leadership democractically instead of with a knife in the real Bloc leaders back. Hopefully Mulcair buries the final wooden stake in both Gilles political career and the Bloc, R.I.P

Brachina

 Why Sean, I doubt our opinion will have an impact.

alan smithee alan smithee's picture

4 more years of Mussolini. Thanks,Gilles.

DaveW

Stockholm wrote:

Chantal Hebert compares the BQ turning in desparation back to Duceppe to the federal PCs thinking that Joe Clark would be their saviour in 2000

good point;

the triumph of hope over experience, as they say of second marriages....

Sean in Ottawa

Brachina wrote:

 Why Sean, I doubt our opinion will have an impact.

Not worried about us-- worried that this could reflect that others could hold the same view.

There are a couple other issues with the campaign I worry about and this is just one.

Misfit Misfit's picture

What about the NDP's stance on Senate reform? There you have a constitutional issue which undermines Quebec's influence in the upper chamber, and you have opened the door for Constitutional reform again.

socialdemocrati...

Sean in Ottawa wrote:

Even a modest improvement for the BQ is a problem. And it is certainly possible. I am worried by those who dismiss this as a threat.

I don't think anyone here is denying it's possible. I just don't think that Duceppe makes that more possible than a more charismatic, exciting leader. 

For this to have an impact, Duceppe would have to do something really compelling out of the gate. Perhaps a comment about sovereignty, and then it would have to be the RIGHT comment at the right time. Which could maybe have a domino effect in the media, and from the reactions of the other parties.

Either way, it's something too soon to predict when this has just been announced as a possibility. And it's still just as possible that this is more of the Bloc spinning its wheels and moving backwards.

socialdemocrati...

The closest thing we have to an incidation of how Duceppe will do... Eric Grenier did a report on the CBC using a poll:

  • From 2014
  • At the provincial, not federal level
  • Where Duceppe hypothetically led the PQ

Which are the furthest thing from realistic numbers.

But in politics, perception is reality. When the polls start to move, we've seen herding effects before. If people say over and over "Duceppe is a force", voters might start treating him that way.

So maybe we should avoid treating him that way.

 

swallow swallow's picture

The Bloc has turned itself into a right-wing party gunning, far more than Jacques Parizeau ever did, against "the ethnics." It's terribly disappointing to see Gilles Duceppe agree to front such a party. 

socialdemocrati...

“For the NDP, it’s Canada first and always Canada,” Mr. Duceppe said at a news conference on Wednesday.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/gilles-duceppe-returns-to-l...

 

This might not harm the NDP the way he hopes it does.

alan smithee alan smithee's picture

What a maroon

Sean in Ottawa

socialdemocraticmiddle wrote:

“For the NDP, it’s Canada first and always Canada,” Mr. Duceppe said at a news conference on Wednesday.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/gilles-duceppe-returns-to-l...

 

This might not harm the NDP the way he hopes it does.

Certainly not outside Quebec -- and I suspect it will do little damage in Quebec among any who were not already voting BQ. The NDP has not kept the fact that it is a federalist party a secret.

David Young

alan smithee wrote:

What a maroon

He's the colour purple?  Or do you mean 'Moron'?

 

onlinediscountanvils

David Young wrote:

alan smithee wrote:

What a maroon

He's the colour purple?  Or do you mean 'Moron'?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C_Kh7nLplWo

NorthReport

How many seats did Duceppe lose for the BQ during the last election?

In the last election the BQ went from 47 seats to winning only 4 seats, losing a massive 43 seats.

Please encourage Duceppe to stay forever.

lagatta

swallow, sadly I agree. I'm very sad because I remember taking part in union organising drives alongside him (and many other people) and in particular in low-wage job ghettos where there were many workers of recent immigrant origins. I think he's just bitter - which is a clear sign that his time in politics is over.

The NDP should come back with something about people across Canada should choose the party that has what it takes to turn Harper's antisocial policies around. That is why so many people in Québec, including many indépendantistes, voted NDP last time.

Sean in Ottawa

So are we sure he does not have a mandate to yank the BQ back from the right?

Stockholm

Misfit wrote:
What about the NDP's stance on Senate reform? There you have a constitutional issue which undermines Quebec's influence in the upper chamber, and you have opened the door for Constitutional reform again.

Quebec has no influence whatsoever in the upper chamber right now

montrealer58 montrealer58's picture

Couillard won a couple of by-elections as all of the federalist vote went to the federalist party most likely to beat the PQ. For all of his bluster, PKP was only able to raise the PQ vote from 12% to 15%.

The CAQ vote evaporated. I like the general argument made elsewhere here that Quebec can turn on a dime, and even the NDP should not take Quebec support for granted.

The NDP have to be a little flattered that the Liberals and the Bloc are throwing their biggest guns at them, namely the son of Pierre Trudeau and Gilles Duceppe. If the NDP can withstand this, both the Liberals and the Bloc have to go back to the drawing board.

If the Bloc really start to gain, the NDP will be seen as the federalist refuge like the Quebec Liberal Party, and Liberals will vote NDP.

onlinediscountanvils

montrealer58 wrote:

namely the son of Pierre Trudeau and Gilles Duceppe.

This was news to me.

David Young

onlinediscountanvils wrote:

montrealer58 wrote:

namely the son of Pierre Trudeau and Gilles Duceppe.

This was news to me.

Yes, it was news to me as well.  Wink

Exactly when did these two have this son?

 

Brachina

 I think meant the Son of Pierre Trudeau being the Liberal big gun and Gilles Decuppe being the Bloc big Gunn, not that Justin is secrectly the love child of Pierre Trudeau and Gilles :-)  . 

Anyways Gilles will be abit more challenging at the debate, the other guy sets a low bar, but I also remember the Canadien Airfarce's impression of his debate proformance. I also remember Gilles didn't care much for debates afterwards. 

Brachina

 Damn, I can't find it on youtube, it was the one where Gilles turns to Harper and says something like you can't keeping having a vote on something because you don't like the results or something. It was in response to Harper having a second vote on Gay marriage. While I agreed with Gilles, being against another vote on Gay marriage, I found it funny neverless for obvious reasons.

Misfit Misfit's picture

@Stockholm: Quebec and Ontario each have 24 Senators in the Upper Chamber from a total of 105. While neither province dominates the Upper Chamber, both provinces can be argued to have considerable influence in the Senate. If the issue arises again for Triple E Senate reform, both provinces stand to lose considerably in terms of voice, influence, and power, and neither province would likely agree to it.

swallow swallow's picture

Always had so much respect for the sovereignty movement and its campaign for social justice through a free Quebec. 

Oui, et ca devient possible.

[img]http://archives.radio-canada.ca/photos/med/fr/referendum_1995_quebec/ref...

But for them, it seems, l'etat now comes first, and screw social justice and those who are not part of "nous." Onetime activists became shills for the PKP rightist agenda and the attack on minorities. Duceppe becomes Sarkozy. 

[img]http://www.suricat.net/web/images/2007/20070425-ensemble-possible.jpg[/img]

 

lagatta

Swallow, don't forget!  Québec solidaire exists!

NorthReport
NorthReport
montrealer58 montrealer58's picture

Gilles is going to say a lot of interesting things. My scenario of an NDP government with a Bloc opposition is one step closer to reality!

Stockholm

Misfit wrote:
@Stockholm: Quebec and Ontario each have 24 Senators in the Upper Chamber from a total of 105. While neither province dominates the Upper Chamber, both provinces can be argued to have considerable influence in the Senate. If the issue arises again for Triple E Senate reform, both provinces stand to lose considerably in terms of voice, influence, and power, and neither province would likely agree to it.

That might make sense if the premier of Quebec was the one selecting all of Quebec senators and their role was to represent the views of the Quebec National Assembly in Ottawa. But such is not the case, all of Quebec senators are Conservative party flunked appointed for life by Stephen Harper. Their loyalty is 100% to Harper and they don't give a damn about their province. Do you seriously think Quebec gets its interest represented by PatrIck Brazeau! Leo Housakos and Jacques Demers???

Misfit Misfit's picture

They are still 24 Senators from Quebec. If the NDP tries to take that away and if they try to open the door for further constitutional wrangling, this can be used by the other political parties to discredit the NDP in Quebec.

montrealer58 montrealer58's picture

How do provinces have influence in the Senate when they are all Party hacks and bagmen and bagwomen appointed by the Fuehrer?

socialdemocrati...

People who defend the senate talk about it as this idealized democratic thing that gives representation and influence to the people of a province. It doesn't. It's an $100 million per year rubber stamp. It's a lifetime of wealth for partisan asskissers.

nicky

The Toronto press seems pretty dismissive of Duceppe's motives and prospects, including a story, a column and an editorial in today's Globe. But what is the Quebec press saying? Peladeau apparently had a leading role in recruiting Duceppe. Are his papers critical or supportive?

sherpa-finn

And that's from Le Devoir

Misfit Misfit's picture

I don't want to argue the "influence" of Quebec Senators in the Senate. Quebec is tied with Ontario for having the most in the Upper Chamber. My concern still holds that Gilles Duceppe can use Senate abolition against the NDP by taking a number advantage away from Quebec and to use this as an argument that the NDP does not look after the interests of Quebec like the BQ does.

socialdemocrati...

I'd like to see them try. The senate is one of the most toxic issues in Canada right now. Even the Conservatives and Liberals are looking for ways to distance themselves from it.

DaveW

nicky wrote:
The Toronto press seems pretty dismissive of Duceppe's motives and prospects, including a story, a column and an editorial in today's Globe. But what is the Quebec press saying? Peladeau apparently had a leading role in recruiting Duceppe. Are his papers critical or supportive?

Le Devoir seems stuck in some time warp, as if the sovereignist movement just needs some jump-start, with PKP and Option nationale and the Bloc all pulling together, and suddenly it will be the 1990s again; they basically think Duceppe II is an interesting new development rather than a total retread, and that 2011 was a one-off bump in the road of more national question debates ...

but then, this is the same op-ed page (Bernard Descoteaux) that endorsed Marois in 2014 and has been ambiguous about PKP in 2015; frankly, it is drifting into irrelevance these days ...

as for La Presse, their columnists are pretty close to the Toronto papers, Chantal et cie., in seeing this Duceppe move as almost silly; face facts, Bloc, you are en route to oblivion

trotwood73

nicky wrote:
The Toronto press seems pretty dismissive of Duceppe's motives and prospects, including a story, a column and an editorial in today's Globe. But what is the Quebec press saying? Peladeau apparently had a leading role in recruiting Duceppe. Are his papers critical or supportive?

By "his" papers, I assume you mean PKP? The Journal de Montréal?

There are two editorials today:

Le dilemme (The Dilemma) by Josée Legault.

Google translation here - I see it as a very objective analysis of the situation. 

 

Passion ou dépendance? (Passion or Addiction?) by Mario Dumont [former ADQ leader]

Google translation here - This article is much more critical. 

 

 

 

nicky

The new electoral map looks pretty daunting for the Bloc. On the new boundaries it would have won 4 seats, all narrowly, gaining Gaspesie and losing Ahuntsic.

Three of their incumbents have either switched parties or are not running.

There are surprisingly few ridings where it would have come within 10% of winning (Duceppe would have lost his by 12%):

Ahuntsic  3% (Mournai has of course switched to the NDP so this seems out of reach.

Charlevoix 6.5%

Sherbrooke 8%

Chicoutimi 9%

Salaberry 9.9%

Chicoutimi  9%

Duceppe may come to regret getting back in the arena.

 

Ken Burch Ken Burch's picture

All Mulcair really has to do is to keep saying "you voted BQ for eighteen years, and for eighteen years, the BQ achieved nothing-even with a minority parliament for the last seven years".

What possible response could Duceppe have to that?

 

swallow swallow's picture

lagatta wrote:

Swallow, don't forget!  Québec solidaire exists!

I would never forget that. I just think of QS as social justice first, sovereignty second if at all (and I vote for them on that  lines- like 90% of people, I don't vote on federalist vs sovereignt). I previously thought people like Duceppe were about campaigning for social justice and sovereignty together, and would never pander to racism. Recent events seem to prove the opposite. 

lagatta

No, I think Duceppe has changed. When he entered the fray he was a union activist.

Sean in Ottawa

Léger poll shows BQ with 10% bump -- this to 26% NDP at 32 LPC at 24 and CPC at 16 GRN at 2

http://www.ledevoir.com/politique/canada/442701/sondage-leger-le-devoir-...

Plug these into the simulator:

http://www.tooclosetocall.ca/p/canada-simulator.html

You get NDP at 44 seats BQ at 11 LPC at 14 and CPC at 8.

 

 

socialdemocrati...

Funny enough, the NDP went UP by a point (within the margin of error) in that poll. If anything, the Bloc took from the other parties. Seemingly, a lot from the Conservatives and the Greens.

bekayne

Seeing how in that poll that the PQ got a PKP bounce of -2%, Duceppe might eventually have to come out of the bullpen for Peladeau as well

socialdemocrati...

I guess a reason I'm not too worried about the Bloc is because we already know the NDP needs to do well in the ROC in order to form a government.

Mulcair's underlying positives ("who should be PM"? "do you approve of this politician?", etc) are ridiculously high in Quebec. So the Bloc can, at worst, take a few seats. Whether the Bloc gets their bump or not, the NDP needs more than a few seats to win, and so the real battle is outside Quebec.

On one hand, yes, the election could come down to a few seats. But on the other hand, if the NDP is going to win, it's probably not going to be a narrow battle of attrition. IMO, it's either going to be huge groundswell for change, or nothing.

montrealer58 montrealer58's picture

Duceppe should state that a vote for the BQ is also a vote against the Senate, and is a vote against C-51.

sherpa-finn

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