The seat allocations for those numbers, according to the Too Close to Call model...
The hardest seats to pick off, according to the same model: Ahuntsic-Cartierville, Beauce, Bellechasse—Les Etchemins—Lévis, Bourassa, Lac-Saint-Jean, Lac-Saint-Louis, Mégantic—L'Érable, Mont-Royal, Notre-Dame-de-Grâce—Westmount, Papineau, Saint-Laurent, Saint-Léonard—Saint-Michel.
CROP is especially encouraging because its findings are almost identical to Abacus's Quebec findings.
SD, the seat projection models stubornly give Ahuntsic to the Liberals. Maria Mourani of course won it narrowly for the Bloc in 2011. Redistribution tilts it narrowly to the Liberals over the NDP but with the Bloc a strong third. Given that Mourani is running now the the NDP I think she can count on consolidating a big portion of the old Bloc vote behind her and she should be the favourite to win this seat.
Yeah, from what I know about statistical modelling, we are now at the limits of what the numbers can predict. I figure posting the list of ridings that would "still" go Liberal and Conservative might help people make more mindful assessments than sheer math.
These models have to make assumptions about how concentrated the support is unless they release riding by riding data.
And there is too much that can change yet.
Quebec is not what worries me anyway...
Eyes are still on Ontario -- and the West to some degree. But Ontario looks like it is going to decide the next government.
Or it can abstain like the Liberal party and split evenly three ways...
Interesting riding polls from Leadnow in 13 Conservtive marginals.
Conservatives bleeding in every one. NDP main beneficiary.
http://www.newswire.ca/news-releases/leadnow-releases-poll-on-13-swing-r...
OTTAWA, Aug. 20, 2015 /CNW/ - A new poll by Environics Research, commissioned by Leadnow, shows voters in 13 hotly contested federal ridings are demanding change this election.
The poll shows Conservative support dropping significantly in all 13 ridings compared to results in the 2011 election. Highlights include:
The Conservative party leads in only one riding and is tied with the Liberal party in two other ridings.
The NDP leads in five of the 13 ridings.
The Liberal party leads in three of the 13 ridings.
In finance minister Joe Oliver's riding of Eglinton–Lawrence, the Conservatives and Liberals are tied, while NDP support has doubled since the 2011 election.
Kitchener-Centre has emerged as a three-way battle.
Further details of Environics riding polls for Leadnow:
http://www.scribd.com/doc/275339636/Environics-Leadnow-Swing-Riding-Poll...
Interesting riding polls from Leadnow in 13 Conservtive marginals.
Conservatives bleeding in every one. NDP main beneficiary.
http://www.newswire.ca/news-releases/leadnow-releases-poll-on-13-swing-r...
These riding polls are fascinating. NDP with a healthy lead in Van Granville which everyone has been assuming was a Liberal slam dunk, and where the really impressive Mira Oreck is running for the NDP, and barely out from the lead in West Vancouver, Sea to Sky, which would be a shocking resuly to even be seriously competitive there...
That link is of no use to me, it made me download scrib app after 4 pages and then it still won't show the rest. I think you need a subscription. Can you tell me which 5 ridings the NDP is leading in.
Kitchener Centre
Saskatoon University
Vancouver Granville
Elmwood Transcona
Edmonton Griesbach
Port Moody-Coquitlam
That link is of no use to me, it made me download scrib app after 4 pages and then it still won't show the rest. I think you need a subscription. Can you tell me which 5 ridings the NDP is leading in.
Try this:
https://s3.amazonaws.com/leadnow/Environics-leadnow-aug-19-15.pdf
Very interesting polls. Even ridings that seem like a long shot for the NDP would become winnable if they broke into majority territory. I had basically written off Eglinton-Lawrence, but maybe not. It looks like the NDP has an excellent shot at a minority. The campaign is still going to matter.
NDP polling at 47% in Québec.
I guess it's up to Ontario. I won't hold my breath.
Since the elction was called we now have riding specific polls that show the NDP gaining : Kingston, Guelph, Kitchener Centre, Spadina Ft York, Elmwood, Sakatoon University, Edm. Griesbach, Coquitlam Ft Moody, Van. Granville, Burnaby North Seymour, Parksville, North Island and perhaps others.
The province-specific polls also have the NDP doing very well - way ahead in Quebec, a close seond in Saskatchewan and coming on strong in Newfoundand. A Probe poll for Manitoba was less enocouraging.
Where the NDP is lagging is in a few national polls like Mainstreet and Nanos and then usually in provinces with small samples.
If things keep up like this, both Shaughnessy and British Properties could be represented by the NDP.
NDP polling at 47% in Québec.
I guess it's up to Ontario. I won't hold my breath.
Quebec is volatile and 60 to 70% of voters say their vote is still up for grabs so the poll numbers are not reflecting a solid preference just the direction people are leaning in at the moment. The NDP's current lead is no stronger than the lead Trudeau had for so long.
alan smithee wrote:NDP polling at 47% in Québec.
I guess it's up to Ontario. I won't hold my breath.
Quebec is volatile and 60 to 70% of voters say their vote is still up for grabs so the poll numbers are not reflecting a solid preference just the direction people are leaning in at the moment. The NDP's current lead is no stronger than the lead Trudeau had for so long.
Much closer to an election. But then this campaign has barely started.
Yes Pondering the NDP's standing in Quebec is more durable than the Liberals because they earned it. they didn't simply count on inheriting it.
https://s3.amazonaws.com/leadnow/Environics-leadnow-aug-19-15.pdf
NDP support rises in some contested ridings.
An NDP tsunami in Québec and an orange wave in BC?
http://www.ctvnews.ca/politics/ndp-could-double-seat-count-in-b-c-politi...
Mark my words as pressure increases Ontario will crack, the NDP is already competetive here, but it will get better.
i have a feeling alot of apolitical voters donte even know Mulcair is leading and NDP is the party to vote for if one wants to stop Harper. I am also guessing NDP support will go up in Ontario as m ore people become aware that Trudea is not leading and is falling in support.
In that light, I find the most interesting seat to consider of the lot is Kitchener Centre.
Mark my words as pressure increases Ontario will crack, the NDP is already competetive here, but it will get better.
I hope you're right.
Aug 20 '15 -
Just updated with a Regional CROP poll for QC showing the NPD with phenomenal support. The NPD has more than double the next closest political party
-------------------------
Aug 18 '15 -
Just updated with the regionals for a new poll showing a significant NDP lead over 2nd place Cons, and Libs languishing behind in 3rd place.
NDP now leads in BC, Ontario, and Quebec, and the NDP is now second everywhere else.
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https://www.youtube.com/results?search_query=ndp%27s+enough
https://www.youtube.com/results?search_query=ndp%27s+not+working
---------------------------
Polling details here are in the following order:
1 Preamble:
2 Latest polling details
3 Canadawide Polling
4 Regional Election Results Popular Vote 2011
5 Regional Polling
6 Canadawide Leadership Polling
7 Regional Leadership Polling
8 Political Trends Seats
9 Political Trends Popular Vote
---------------------------------------------------------
1 Preamble
We have no way of ascertaining for sure what polling results actually are, and sometimes it just might be too tempting to resist tweaking the polls. There are lots of dirty tricks in politics, so their is no reason to assume that some polling is exempt. For example, if a Conservative supporting pollster wants the Conservatives to win, rather than showing the NDP with a commanding lead over a 3rd place party, it might be helpful to show both the NDP and a 3rd place party, closer together than they actually are, to encourage splitting the vote against the Conservatives. Just
sayin'
As we get closer to the actual election date, herding* is one thing to watch out for in the polls.
* - see Nate Silver
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2 Latest polling details:
Intentions de vote fédéral au Québec: le NPD écrase la concurrence
NPD - 47%
Libs - 20%
BQ - 16%
Cons - 13%
NDP increases lead, Libs continue to fade.
NDP / 35%, Up 3%
Cons / 29%, Unchanged
Libs / 26%, Down 1%
http://abacusdata.ca/election-2015-ndp-leads-but-70-of-voters-up-for-grabs/
-------------------
3 Canadawide Polling
Date / Event / NDP, Change / Cons, Change / Libs, Change / BQ / Grns
May 2 '11 / GE / 31% / 40% / 19%
Aug 17 '15 / Abacus / 35% / 29% / 26% / 3% / 6%
Aug 14 '15 / Nanos / 29% / 32% / 29% / 5% / 5%
Aug 12 '15 / Leger / 33% / 27% / 28% / 5% / 6%
Aug 11 '15 / EKOS / 32% / 30% / 24% / 4% / 7% - Liberal media complex
Aug 11 '15 / Forum / 34% / 28% / 27% / 6% / 4% - Liberal media complex
Aug 11 '15 / Mainstreet R / 30% / 31% / 29% / 4% / 6% - Conservative media complex
Aug 10 '15 / Forum / 34% / 28% / 27% / 6% / 4% - Liberal media complex
Aug 10 '15 / Ipsos Reid / 33%, Down 1% / 31%, Down 2% / 28%, Up 3% / 4% / 4% -
Aug 7 '15 / Nanos / 30% / 31% / 29% / 4% / 5% -
Aug 2 ' 15 / Forum / 39%, Up 8% / 33%, Down 7% / 24%, Up 5% - Liberal media complex
Aug 1 '15 / Robbins / 36% Up 3% / 28%, Up 1% / 30%, Down 3%
Jul 31 '15 / Nanos / 30%, Down 1% / 32%, Down 8% / 29%, Up 10% - Conservative media complex
Jul 30 '15 / Innovative / 34%, Up 3% / 29%, Down 11% / 26%, Up 7% - Conservative media complex
Jul 28 '15 / EKOS / 34%, Up 3% / 30%, Down 10% / 23%, Up 4% - Liberal media complex
Jul 27 '15 / Ipsos Reid / 34%, Up 3% / 33%, Down 7% / 25%, Up 6% - Accurate pollster
Jul 21 '15 / Mainstreet / 27%, Down 4% / 38%, Down 2% / 25%, Up 6%
Jul 16 '15 / Leger / 32%, Up 1% / 32%, Down 8% / 25%, Up 6% - Conservative media complex
Jul 6 '15 / Abacus / 32%, Up 1% / 29%, Down 11% / 27%, Up 8% - Liberal media complex
Jun 18 '15 / Environics / 30% / Down 1% / 28%, Down 12% / 28%, Up 9%
Jun 7 '15 / Angus Reid / 36%, Up 5% / 31%, Down 9% / 23%, Down 4% - Accurate pollster
------------------------------
4 Regional Election Results Popular Vote 2011
Party / May 2 '11 / GE / BC / AB / SK / MB / ON / QC / AC
NDP / May 2 '11 / GE / 33% / 17% / 32% / 26% / 26% / 43% / 30%
Cons / May 2 '11 / GE / 46% / 67% / 56% / 79% / 44% / 17% / 38%
Libs / May 2 '11 / GE / 13% / 9% / 9% / 17% / 25% / 14% / 29%
BQ / Gns / May 2 '11 / GE / 8% / ? / ? / ? / ? / 23% / ?
----------------------------
5 Regional Polling
Regional Polling AB
Date / Pollster / NDP, Change / Cons, Change / Libs, Change / BQ/Grn, Change
Aug 17 '15 / Abacus / 22% / 60% / 14%
---------
Regional Polling AC
Date / Pollster / NDP, Change / Cons, Change / Libs, Change / BQ/Grn, Change
Aug 17 '15 / Abacus / 36% / 18% / 45%
Aug 7 '15 / Nanos / 32% / 18% / 48%
-------------------------
Regional Polling NL
Date / Pollster / NDP, Change / Cons, Change / Libs, Change / BQ/Grn, Change
-------------------------------
Regional Polling NB
Date / Pollster / NDP, Change / Cons, Change / Libs, Change / BQ/Grn, Change
--------------------------------
Regional Polling PE
Date / Pollster / NDP, Change / Cons, Change / Libs, Change / BQ/Grn, Change
-------------------------------------
Regional Polling NS
Date / Pollster / NDP, Change / Cons, Change / Libs, Change / BQ/Grn, Change
--------------------------------
Regional Polling BC
Date / Pollster / NDP, Change / Cons, Change / Libs, Change / BQ/Grn, Change
Aug 17 '15 / Abacus / 34% / 32% / 24% / 9%
Aug 7 '15 / Nanos / 41% / 26% / 29% / 4%
Aug 6 '15 / Mainstreet / 37% / 23% / 26% / 5%
Augb 2 '15 / Forum / 44%, Up 11% / 35%, Down 11%, 26%, Up 13%
----------------------
Regional Polling Prairies
Date / Pollster / NDP, Change / Cons, Change / Libs, Change / BQ/Grn, Change
Aug 7 '15 / Nanos / 19% / 56% / 18%
--------------------------------------------
Regional Polling MB/SK
Date / Pollster / NDP, Change / Cons, Change / Libs, Change / BQ/Grn, Change
Aug 17 '15 / Abacus / 26% / 47% / 24% /
--------------------------------
Regional Polling SK
Date / Pollster / NDP, Change / Cons, Change / Libs, Change / BQ/Grn, Change
Aug 13 '15 / Insightrix / 35% / 39% / 21%
---------------------------------------
Regional Polling MB
Date / Pollster / NDP, Change / Cons, Change / Libs, Change / BQ/Grn, Change
----------------------------------------------------------
Regional Polling ON
Date / Pollster / NDP, Change / Cons, Change / Libs, Change / BQ/Grn, Change
Aug 15 '15 / Abacus / 32% / 30% / 30% /
Aug 7 '15 / Nanos / 26% / 37% / 29%
---------------------------------------------------
Regional Polling QC
Date / Pollster / NDP, Change / Cons, Change / Libs, Change / BQ/Grn, Change
Aug 17 '15 / CROP / 47% / 13% / 20% / 16%
Aug 15 '15 / Abacus / 47% / 13% / 20% / 13%
Aug 7 '15 / Nanos / 39% / 13% / 28% / 17%
--------------------------------------------------
Regional Polling Terrritories
Date / Pollster / NDP, Change / Cons, Change / Libs, Change / BQ/Grn, Change
-------------------------
Regional Polling - Forum
Party / Aug 2 '15 / Forum / BC / AB / SK / MB / ON / QC / AC
NDP / Aug 2 '15 / Forum / 44% +11% / 34% +17% / ? / ? / 37% +11% / 38%, Down 5% / 45%, Up 15%
Cons / Aug 2 '15 / Forum / 35% -11% / 38% -29% / ? / ? / 35% -9% / 17% UC* / 38% UC*
Libs / Aug 2 '15 / Forum / 26% +13% / 9% +12% / ? / ? / 24%, -1% / 23%, +9% / Down
BQ / Gns / Aug 2 '15 / Forum / ? / ? / ? / ? / ? / 19% -4% / ?
* denotes unchanged
------------------------------------------------
6 Canadawide Leadership Polling
Date / Pollster / Mulcair / Harper / Trudeau
Aug 10 ' 15 / Forum / 28% / 25% / 23%
7 Regional Leadership Polling
---------------
8 Political Trends Seats
Gen Election / NDP, Change / Libs, Change
2004 / 19 seats, Up 6 seats / 135 seats, Down 37 seats
2006 / 29 seats, Up 10 seats / 116, Down 19 seats
2008 / 37 seats, Up 8 seats / 77 seats, Down 39 seats
2011 / 103 seats, Up 66 seats / 34 seats, Down 43 seats
--------------
9 Political Trends Popular Vote
Gen Election / NDP, Change / Libs, Change
2004 / 16%, Up 7% / 37% , Down 4%
2006 / 17.5%, Up 1.5% / 30%, Down 7%
2008 / 18.2%, Up 0.7% / 26%, Down 4%
2011 / 31%, Up 13% / 19%, Down 7%
---------------------------
Please post latest polling - thanks.
--------------
14,800
NDP could double seat count in B.C.: political experthttp:/
/www.ctvnews.ca/politics/ndp-could-double-seat-count-in-b-c-political-exp...
Poll on perceptions of the economy. Most feel it's not in great shape. As far as who would be best to lead it, there's not a huge difference between any of the three leaders (though Mulcair seemed ahead on most of them). Still, on issues surrounding the economy, the NDP is doing well in the public's perception.
Eyes are still on Ontario -- and the West to some degree. But Ontario looks like it is going to decide the next government.
Or it can abstain like the Liberal party and split evenly three ways..
Depending on how Ontario votes, we could get to BC with both the Conservatives and the NDP still capable of winning the most seats.
Nanos Research
Regionals - Power Party Index
ON
Party / Aug 14 '15
NDP / 51
Cons / 56
Libs / 52
Nanos Research
Regionals - Power Party Index
Prairies
Party / Aug 14 '15
NDP / 46
Cons / 63
Libs / 41
Nanos Research
Regionals - Power Party Index
QC
Party / Aug 14 '15
NDP / 62
Cons / 44
Libs / 51
BQ / 35
Nanos Research - Aug 14 '15
Preferred Prime Minister
Leader / 1 Yr Ago / 3 Mos Ago / 1 Mo Ago / Last Wk / This Wk / Change
Mulcair / 19% / 20% / 29% / 27% / 26% / Up 7%
Harper / 26% / 31% / 29% / 31% / 30% / Down 4%
Trudeau / 32% / 29% / 23% / 21% / 21% / Down 11%
-----------------------
14,000
How you define ready to be PM is an interestng question -- do you get a pass by being PM or would massive screw-ups in that position suggest that you are not in fact ready. Arguably, Canada has suffered by having someone who was not ready govern us for the last decade.
Harper is not ready on many counts -- competence is only part of it -- but a failure to understand the nature, people, potential, diversity, aspirations of Canada is a start. He has never understood this and as a result he is no more ready than he was when he started or -- for that matter -- Trudeau.
Nanos Research - Aug 14 '15
Party Consider
Party / 1 Yr Ago / 3 Mos Ago / 1 Mo Ago / Last Wk / This Wk / Change
NDP / 44% / 49% / 53% / 49% / 49% / Up 5%
Cons / 36% / 44% / 43% / 39% / 40% / Up 4%
Libs / 54% / 51% / 44% / 46% / 46% / Down 8%
Pollster says NDP has built up a significant amount of goodwill
Breathtaking numbers for NDP and for Tom in today's CROP
http://static.lpcdn.ca/fichiers/html/2266/Sondage_complet.pdf
Truly amazing. 47%! Better than the 2011 results. And 27% more than the second place Liberals. That would surely mean 70+ seats. Papineau has to be in play.
I hope the "Anybody But Harper" voters in the rest of Canada, Ontario especially, take note.
http://www.lapresse.ca/actualites/elections-federales/201508/19/01-48939...
http://montrealgazette.com/news/local-news/montreal-the-moment/ndps-oran...