Latest polling thread July 14, 2015

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JeffWells

Has this been reported? New Environics riding polls of Guelph (10% NDP lead) and Kingston and the Islands (tied). Maybe Ontario is getting onboard after all.

A recent Environics Research Group poll indicates that the Liberal Party could lose two of its safest federal Ontario seats to the NDP should an election be held now - a stunning result that comes just as an election may be launched as early as this weekend.

http://ontarionewswatch.com/onw-news.html?id=914

 

NorthReport

NDP pass Liberals in fundraising race, bringing in record $4.5M, and top everyone in number of donors

http://news.nationalpost.com/news/canada/canadian-politics/federal-elect...

jerrym

The just released EKOS poll showing the NDP in first place (BC, Saskatchewan and Quebec) and in second place elsewhere by at most by at most 4% (Manitoba 2%, Ontario 3%, Atlantic 4%), with the exception of Alberta where they trail by only 12% (only considering their historical %s), places the NDP in great position.

With the economy now in its fifth month of downturn as evidenced by just released May data, the economy will definitely be in recession when the June data is released at the end of the August right in the middle of the election. 

Furthermore, the 12% gap in Alberta may well be why the Cons are now announcing more than $ 2 billion in spending in Calgary. 

David Akin notes that the Cons have made more than 100 spending announcmentsfor a total of more than $1 billion in one day on Thursday of this week. Akin calls it porkapalooza. No wonder the Cons are throwing money away like there is no tomorrow. There may well be for them, when you take the economy into account. 

Screen Shot 2015-07-31 at 9.40.35 AM

 

http://ipolitics.ca/2015/07/31/the-ekos-poll-vote-splitting-in-ontario-b...

 

 

Quote:

Here's more evidence of all the parties ramping up, including the Cons announcing more than $2 billion in spending in Calgary, while Kenney denies they are engaged in pork-barrelling.

 

http://news.nationalpost.com/news/canada/canadian-politics/federal-parti...

 

 

Quote:

But this week, Conservative MPs have really amped up their game — one of the hints that we could be into a general election as soon as Sunday.

And on Thursday, Conservatives should give themselves a pat on the back for hitting the magic $1 billion — that’s billion with a ‘b’ folks — handed out in just one day. I counted 108 separate cheque handouts and I’m sure I missed a few. Those 108 cheque handouts totalled $1.188 billion. Of all those cheques, 84 worth a combined $839 million will be spent in ridings currently held by Conservatives. Just three cheques worth of a combined $53.8 million will be spent in ridings held by New Democrats. Just four worth $68.6-million will be spent in Liberal-held ridings. Health Minister Rona Ambrose even dropped into independent MP Brent Rathgeber’s riding next door to hers in suburban Alberta to hand out three cheques worth $385,000.  The rest of the cheques and cash will be spent on national or regional programs.

http://blogs.canoe.com/davidakin/politics/pork-a-palooza-tories-hit-magi...

 

 

NorthReport

CBC poll tracker today says Trudeau liberals moving down Harper cons moving up

terrytowel

NorthReport wrote:

Trudeau Liberals are experiencing a major polling trainwreck just as we approach the dropping of the writs

Trudeau Liberals today sit at 23%, only 4% above their worst showing ever in 2011 when the Liberals only won 34 seats

Trudeau Liberals today are a whopping 11% behind the  front-running NDP

Trudeau Liberals today have dropped a massive 27% against the NDP since Jul '14

Great now we will have a repeat of 2011 when the Libs & NDP split the vote and allowed the Cons to come up the middle.

 

NorthReport

Not likely tt

NDP needs to continue doing what is doing by focusing on defeating the Harper cons and forming a majority government

CBC is part of the liberal media complex and going by past track record you can probably give the Trudeau Libs less support and give the Mulcair NDP more support

josh
NorthReport

Tip of the hat to nicky.

As opposed to, for example, the Liberal media complex like the toronto star and the cbc, Alice and her punditsguide.ca is one of the best sources for unbiased and informative election commentary in Canada.

Ask ourselves do we want to hear feel good BS during the election campaign, or do we want to hear the truth about the election campaign, no matter how difficult that may be for us?

Pundits' Guide ‏@punditsguide  16h16 hours ago

Either @davidakin has broken free of the strictures of frmr Sun editorial policy, or PPG are less afraid of the CPC, but he's on fire lately

 

Sean in Ottawa

NorthReport wrote:

Tip of the hat to nicky.

As opposed to, for example, the Liberal media complex like the toronto star and the cbc, Alice and her punditsguide.ca is one of the best sources for unbiased and informative election commentary in Canada.

Ask ourselves do we want to hear feel good BS during the election campaign, or do we want to hear the truth about the election campaign, no matter how difficult that may be for us?

Pundits' Guide ‏@punditsguide  16h16 hours ago

Either @davidakin has broken free of the strictures of frmr Sun editorial policy, or PPG are less afraid of the CPC, but he's on fire lately

 

He has been for a while.

NorthReport

_

 

NorthReport

Thanks josh.

As Nik Nanos mentioned it is the trends that count which favour the NDP.

 

Popular Vote

Party / 1 Yr Ago / Aug 2 '15 / Change

NDP / 23% / 30% / Up 7%

Cons / 27% / 32% / Up 5%

Libs / 38% / 29% / Down 9% 

BQ / 4% / 3% / Down 1%

Grn 6% / 5% / Down 1%

 

Leadership

Mulcair / 28%

Harper / 31%

Trudeau / 22%, trailing LPC by 7%,

Duceppe / 2%

May / 3%

http://www.nanosresearch.com/library/polls/POLNAT-S15-T648.pdf

 

josh wrote:

. Nanos: CPC 32 NDP 30 LPC 29 G 5 B 3

.

http://www.nanosresearch.com/library/polls/POLNAT-S15-T648.pdf

scott16

NorthReport wrote:

Tip of the hat to nicky.

As opposed to, for example, the Liberal media complex like the toronto star and the cbc, Alice and her punditsguide.ca is one of the best sources for unbiased and informative election commentary in Canada.

Ask ourselves do we want to hear feel good BS during the election campaign, or do we want to hear the truth about the election campaign, no matter how difficult that may be for us?

Pundits' Guide ‏@punditsguide  16h16 hours ago

Either @davidakin has broken free of the strictures of frmr Sun editorial policy, or PPG are less afraid of the CPC, but he's on fire lately

 

Can you explain PPG to me? Point per game?

NorthReport

Could it be this?

http://ppgreview.ca/

NorthReport
JeffWells

First poll post election call. Forum: NDP 39%, Con 28%, Lib 24%.

First ever double-digit federal lead for the NDP.

http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/2015/08/03/ndp-surges-past-conservati...

nicky

I wish it wasn't Forum.
Such a contrast with other polls

nicky

Here is the full Forum report

http://poll.forumresearch.com/data/Federal%20Horserace%20News%20Release%20(2015%2008%2002)%208430912%20Forum%20Research.pdf

NDP leads everywhere including Atlantic, Manitoba/Saskatchewan.

Too good to be true alas

josh

JeffWells wrote:

First poll post election call. Forum: NDP 39%, Con 28%, Lib 24%.

First ever double-digit federal lead for the NDP.

http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/2015/08/03/ndp-surges-past-conservati...

Like the Mainstreet poll a week or so ago, hard to believe. Therefore, I don't.

And the problem probably lies here: "The Forum Research poll was conducted between 10 a.m. and 4 p.m. on Sunday using an interactive voice-response telephone survey." A 6 hour poll?

Stockholm

josh wrote:
JeffWells wrote:

First poll post election call. Forum: NDP 39%, Con 28%, Lib 24%.

First ever double-digit federal lead for the NDP.

http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/2015/08/03/ndp-surges-past-conservati...

Like the Mainstreet poll a week or so ago, hard to believe. Therefore, I don't.

And the problem probably lies here: "The Forum Research poll was conducted between 10 a.m. and 4 p.m. on Sunday using an interactive voice-response telephone survey." A 6 hour poll?

Forum polls are always done over one day/night so this is nothing unusual...it must just kill the Liberal Star to have to report that...seeing headlines of a big NDP lead splashed on the headlines will just speed up the stampede of Liberal strategic voters over to the NDP

nicky

Innovative Research poll in today's Hill Times:

 

NDP 33.7

Con 29.3

Lib 25.8

Greeen    6

Bloc            5

http://www.hilltimes.com/news/news/2015/08/03/handicapping-election-cons...

 

The NDP start in a strong position. Their vote is growing in seats where it makes a difference.  They are the most effective at rallying their base and they are pulling significant numbers of defectors from other opposition parties.  If this trend continues, the NDP federally could mirror the success of their Alberta cousins in uniting the centre left vote. The risk for the NDP is that so many of their voters identify with other parties. They need to keep those voters from slipping back over the campaign.

The Liberals are struggling. Their vote is growing in areas where it is unlikely to turn into seats while they are stable in competitive areas.  The Liberals are the least effectively at rallying core supporters and at attracting unaligned voters. The Liberals need to shake things up to avoid another third place finish.

The Conservatives have a narrow path to victory. Their core is safe for now, but they are losing support in battleground seats and they have a very small pool of potential supporters. That said, they have the potential to gain support among conflicted voters if they can raise unease over the alternatives. Increasingly, that means the NDP rather than the Liberals.

 

NorthReport

That Forum poll out today showing the NDP at 39%, and 10 seats shy of a majority government, explains the reason why Harper arranged for a 78 day election campaign.

As Nate Silver of fivethirtyeight has said, do not necessarily discount a poll that is different than the rest. It may be an outlier or it may be that a change has been detected, or a continuation of a change that has been detected.

 

NDP surges past Conservatives, Liberals in latest poll

 New Democrats take double-digit lead in public support, their best showing by far in the past two years, Forum Research poll finds.

http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/2015/08/03/ndp-surges-past-conservati...

NorthReport

Forum Polling - Aug 2 '15 showing the NDP closing in on a majority government. 

 

Party / Jul 7 / Jul 14 / Jul 20 / Aug 2 / Change 

NDP / 32% / 34% / 34% / 33% / 39% / Up 7%

Cons / 32% / 27% / 28% / 33% / 28% / Down 5%, 11% behind leading NDP

Libs / 26% / 27% / 29% / 25% / 24% / Down 2%, 15% behind leasding NDP, third place

NorthReport

Back now to the real world as opposed to the Liberal make believe world

Norman Spector ‏@nspector4  2h2 hours ago

Norman Spector retweeted Scott Tribe

Based on Nanos *regional* numbers today, hard to see where #LPC wins enough seats to climb out of #3

Norman Spector added,

Scott Tribe @[email protected] The point is: LPC within Nanos MOE they can easily be in 1st or jump to first, and their trendline is going up, not down.

 

Misfit Misfit's picture

It could be that voters did not like Harper's statement that election spending by the parties will not cost taxpayers money when it was pointed out right afterwards that it will along with the fact that this is going to be the most expensive election in Canadian history when the country is in a recession. it could mean that many voters did tune in to watch and what they heard turned them off.

NorthReport

nicky,

Who are the principals behind Innovative Research? Is is Greg Lyle? He's a Conservative isn't he?

Anyway here is Innovative polling results for the 2011 election

Date / Pollster / NDP / Cons / Libs / BQ / Gns

May 2 '11 / GE / 31% / 40% / 19% / 6% / 4%

Apr 25 '11 / IR / 25% / 38% / 24% / 6% / 5%

 

More manipulative, than accurate pollster, as excluding the BQ and the Gns, Innovative Research was off by 13% in 2011 with only a week left in the camapign, not a good forecast.

The most accurate pollsters over the past 2 federal elections have been Angus Reid and Ipsos Reid.

 

 

 

NorthReport

Warning: Conservative media complex  Laughing

Handicapping election: Conservatives have narrow path to victory, but losing support in battleground seats

They have a very small pool of potential supporters.

That said, they have the potential to gain support among conflicted voters if they can raise unease over the alternatives.

Increasingly, that means the NDP rather than the Liberals.

http://www.hilltimes.com/news/news/2015/08/03/handicapping-election-cons...

NorthReport

Norman Spector ‏@nspector4  3h3 hours ago

Here's Nanos in today's Globe: Hard now to find #LPC seats that end party up higher than # 3 @stribe39

Embedded image permalink

 

NorthReport

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CmmSV1jtK3s

 

Latest Polling - Aug 3 '15

Bear in mind that we have no way of ascertaining for sure what polling results actually are, and sometimes it just might be too tempting to resist tweaking the polls. As we all well know, unfortunately there are a lot of dirty tricks in politics. Now here is one hypothetical scenario: Say you were a Conservatve supporting pollster, who wanted the Conservatives to win. What would be your strategy with your polls? Maybe it would be, rather than showing the NDP with a commanding lead over the 3rd place party, it could be helpful to show both the NDP and the 3rd place party closer together than they actually are, to encourage splitting the vote against the Conservatives. Just sayin'  

Anyway as we get closer to the actual election date, herding is the one thing to watch out for in the polls.

 

Date / Event / NDP, Change / Cons, Change / Libs, Change

May 2 '11 / GE / 31% / 40% / 19% 

Aug 2 ' 15 / Forum / 39%, Up 8% / 33%, Down 7% / 24%, Up 5% - Liberal media complex

Jul 31 '15 / Nanos / 30%, Down 1% / 32%, Down 8% / 29%, Up 10% - Conservative media complex 

Jul 30 '15 / Innovative / 34%, Up 3% / 29%, Down 11% / 26%, Up 7% - Conservative media complex 

Jul 28 '15 / EKOS / 34%, Up 3% / 30%, Down 10% / 23%, Up 4% - Liberal media complex

Jul 27 '15 / Ipsos Reid / 34%, Up 3% / 33%, Down 7% / 25%, Up 6% - Accurate pollster

Jul 21 '15 / Mainstreet / 27%, Down 4% / 38%, Down 2% / 25%, Up 6% 

Jul 16 '15 / Leger / 32%, Up 1% / 32%, Down 8% / 25%, Up 6% - Conservative media complex

Jul 6 '15 / Abacus / 32%, Up 1% / 29%, Down 11% / 27%, Up 8% - Liberal media complex

Jun 18 '15 / Environics / 30% / Down 1% / 28%, Down 12% / 28%, Up 9%

Jun 7 '15 / Angus Reid / 36%, Up 5% / 31%, Down 9% / 23%, Down 4% - Accurate pollster

 

 

 

 

 

Canada's Political Trends:

Seats:

Gen Election / NDP, Change / Libs, Change

2004 / 19 seats, Up 6 seats / 135 seats, Down 37 seats

2006 / 29 seats, Up 10 seats  / 116, Down 19 seats

2008 / 37 seats, Up 8 seats / 77 seats, Down 39 seats

2011 / 103 seats, Up 66 seats / 34 seats, Down 43 seats


Canada's Political Trends:

Popular Vote:

Gen Election / NDP, Change / Libs, Change

2004 / 16%, Up 7% / 37% , Down 4%

2006 / 17.5%, Up 1.5% / 30%, Down 7%

2008 / 18.2%, Up 0.7% / 26%,  Down 4%

2011 / 31%, Up 13% / 19%, Down 7%


 

 

bekayne

NorthReport wrote:

 

Party / Jul 7 / Jul 14 / Jul 20 / Aug 2 / Change 

Cons / 32% / 27% / 28% / 33% / 28% / Down 5%, 11% behind leading NDP

So Forum's next poll will show the Conservatives up by 5%?

NorthReport

NDP leads in first post-writ poll

New Democrats headed for solid minority

NDP lead in Atlantic, Quebec and BC, tied in Ontario

3-in-10 Liberals from 2011 voting NDP this time

NDP headed for strong minority

Mulcair is clearly preferred for Prime Minister

-----------

7,100

http://poll.forumresearch.com/post/334/new-democrats-headed-for-solid-mi...

NorthReport

Let's start playing a lot closer attention to the regional polling, eh!

 

Regionals

NDP has moved into the lead in every area of the country except AB, where they are within 8% of the Cons.

 

AB

N / 34%

C / 42%

L / 21%

 

AC

N / 45%

C / 

L / 38%

 

BC

N / 44%

C / 24%

L / 26%

 

ON

N / 37%

C / 34%

L / 24%

 

QC

N / 38%

C / 17%

L / 23%

B / 19%

 

SK/MB

N / 37%

C / 35%

L / 24%

 

Seats

N / 160

C / 118

L / 58

B / 1

G / 1

 

Preferred Prime Minister

Mulcair / 31%

Harper / 24%

Trudeau / 22%

 

http://poll.forumresearch.com/post/334/new-democrats-headed-for-solid-mi...

http://poll.forumresearch.com/data/Federal%20Horserace%20News%20Release%20(2015%2008%2002)%208430912%20Forum%20Research.pdf

 

NorthReport

Regionals 


Pop Vote

Party / May 2 '11 / GE / BC / AB / SK / MB / ON / QC / AC

NDP / May 2 '11 / GE / 33% / 17% / 32% / 26% / 26% / 43% / 30%

Cons / May 2 '11 / GE / 46% / 67% / 56% / 79% / 44% / 17% / 38%

Libs / May 2 '11 / GE / 13% / 9% / 9% / 17% / 25% / 14% / 29%

BQ / Gns / May 2 '11 / GE / 8% / ? / ? / ? / ? / 23% / ?

 

Seats

Party / May 2 '11 / GE / BC / AB / SK / MB / ON / QC / AC / NO / Total

NDP / May 2 '11 / GE / 12 / 1 / 0 / 2 / 22 / 59 / 6 / 1 / 103

Cons / May 2 '11 / GE / 21 / 27 / 13 / 11 / 73 / 5 / 14 / 2 / 166

Libs / May 2 '11 / GE / 2 / 0 / 1 / 1 / 11 / 7 / 12 / 0 / 34

BQ / Gns / May 2 '11 / GE / 1 / 0 / 0 / 0 / 0 / 4 / 0 / 0 / 5

 


NorthReport

Regionals 


Pop Vote

Party / May 2 '11 / GE / BC / AB / SK / MB / ON / QC / AC

NDP / May 2 '11 / GE / 33% / 17% / 32% / 26% / 26% / 43% /  30%

Cons / May 2 '11 / GE / 46% / 67% / 56% / 79% / 44% / 17% / 38%

Libs / May 2 '11 / GE / 13% / 9% / 9% / 17% / 25% / 14% / 29%

BQ / Gns / May 2 '11 / GE / 8% / ? / ? / ? / ? / 23% / ?

 

 

Pop Vote

Party / Aug 2 '15 / Forum / BC / AB / SK / MB / ON / QC / AC

NDP / Aug 2 '15 / Forum / 44% +11% / 34% +17% / ? / ? / 37% +11% / 38%, Down 5% / 45%, Up 15%

Cons / Aug 2 '15 / Forum / 35% -11% / 38% -29% / ? / ? / 35% -9% / 17% UC* / 38% UC*

Libs / Aug 2 '15 / Forum / 26% +13% / 9% +12% / ? / ? / 24%,  -1% / 23%, +9% / Down

BQ / Gns / Aug 2 '15 / Forum / ? / ? / ? / ? / ? / 19% -4% / ?

* denotes unchanged

 

 

NorthReport

NDP under Thomas Mulcair opens up large lead in first poll after federal election called

https://www.straight.com/news/500721/ndp-under-thomas-mulcair-opens-larg...

NorthReport

New poll shows NDP support climbing towards majority

http://www.newstalk1010.com/news/2015/08/03/new-poll-shows-ndp-support-c...

mark_alfred

Wow.

Quote:

In the formerly Liberal fortress of Atlantic Canada, the NDP has nearly half the support (45 per cent), while the Liberals are in a solid second (38 per cent).

Pierre C yr

The polls are so volatile. Im not ready to say we have that great a lead yet. Oh and fuck the media for not saying why Mulcair didnt take questions on Sunday because he had to attend Flora MacDonald's funeral. Jesus the cunts.

Sean in Ottawa

terrytowel wrote:

NorthReport wrote:

Trudeau Liberals are experiencing a major polling trainwreck just as we approach the dropping of the writs

Trudeau Liberals today sit at 23%, only 4% above their worst showing ever in 2011 when the Liberals only won 34 seats

Trudeau Liberals today are a whopping 11% behind the  front-running NDP

Trudeau Liberals today have dropped a massive 27% against the NDP since Jul '14

Great now we will have a repeat of 2011 when the Libs & NDP split the vote and allowed the Cons to come up the middle.

 

Well the polls are suggesting something quite different:

Liberals plus 5 from 2011.

Conservatives minus 5 from 2011.

NDP about the same or plus 1-2.

To get the same as the last election you have to presume that the Liberals if they go down another 5 points will give that all to the Conservaitves. This does not make sense-- I suspect they already went.

I suspect that if the Liberals keeep going down the NDP will get a larger share of that than the Conservatives. This means the present situation is nothing like 2011.

The one similarity is the importance of the youth vote. Encourage those under 35 to get out and vote. They , in large part, will decide if Harper gets a government.

Would love to see an ad that says not voting is voting by handing proxy to the others who are voting (of course in more accessible language).

 

Sean in Ottawa

Pierre C yr wrote:

The polls are so volatile. Im not ready to say we have that great a lead yet. Oh and fuck the media for not saying why Mulcair didnt take questions on Sunday because he had to attend Flora MacDonald's funeral. Jesus the cunts.

The debate on twitter is that he had three hours and this was enough time.

Now we don't know why he did not -- maybe he was not feeling well, maybe he had somethign private to do, maybe he just needed to go home and get ready.

I did not see how it was handled. Ideally if he said I am sorry I can't take questions today but will at x time that would be fine -- if he let someone else just say no questions if could have been handled better. These things add up.

This is only the first week and at the moment does not matter but the relationship with the media is critical and you do have to explain or apologize etc. in cases like this. At this moment it is not a pattern so no need to worry.

Sean in Ottawa
bekayne

mark_alfred wrote:

Wow.

Quote:

In the formerly Liberal fortress of Atlantic Canada, the NDP has nearly half the support (45 per cent), while the Liberals are in a solid second (38 per cent).

Sample of only 121 though.

Pondering

Pierre C yr wrote:

The polls are so volatile. Im not ready to say we have that great a lead yet. Oh and fuck the media for not saying why Mulcair didnt take questions on Sunday because he had to attend Flora MacDonald's funeral. Jesus the cunts.

Maybe they are not too happy with Mulcair for pulling out of the debates. They could have still had them without Harper. They can't without two leaders. I expect Trudeau will go up in their estimation for not backing out.

The campaign is so long I'm sure Mulcair will be giving plenty of interviews so this isn't even a tiny bit negative unless he makes a habit of it like Harper.

Pierre C yr

Pondering wrote:

Pierre C yr wrote:

The polls are so volatile. Im not ready to say we have that great a lead yet. Oh and fuck the media for not saying why Mulcair didnt take questions on Sunday because he had to attend Flora MacDonald's funeral. Jesus the cunts.

Maybe they are not too happy with Mulcair for pulling out of the debates. They could have still had them without Harper. They can't without two leaders. I expect Trudeau will go up in their estimation for not backing out.

The campaign is so long I'm sure Mulcair will be giving plenty of interviews so this isn't even a tiny bit negative unless he makes a habit of it like Harper.

 

Not too happy? So they are blackmailing him by creating bs negative media stories of him days on end about 'not answering questions' when in fact he's known to exhaust reporters at scrums for years? The media is supposed to be a professional and ethical organisation but my personal experience and the countless examples of useless nitpicking and the way you describe them makes them look more like just another entitled mafia.

Pulling out of debates that dont include Harper is not falling into one of Harper's traps. The worst thing the opposition can do is repeatedly engage in nationally televised debates amongst themselves casting mud onto each other in prime time. If the idiots in the liberal and green camp cant understand this they are doomed to fail more than just at the polls.

The media should do its work dealing with real pressing issues. Not this petty ego bs. The media isnt owed anything. The media owes canadians professional and impartial reporting on the issues that matter.

 

Pondering

Pierre C yr wrote:

Pondering wrote:

Pierre C yr wrote:

The polls are so volatile. Im not ready to say we have that great a lead yet. Oh and fuck the media for not saying why Mulcair didnt take questions on Sunday because he had to attend Flora MacDonald's funeral. Jesus the cunts.

Maybe they are not too happy with Mulcair for pulling out of the debates. They could have still had them without Harper. They can't without two leaders. I expect Trudeau will go up in their estimation for not backing out.

The campaign is so long I'm sure Mulcair will be giving plenty of interviews so this isn't even a tiny bit negative unless he makes a habit of it like Harper.

Not too happy? So they are blackmailing him by creating bs negative media stories of him days on end about 'not answering questions' when in fact he's known to exhaust reporters at scrums for years? The media is supposed to be a professional and ethical organisation but my personal experience and the countless examples of useless nitpicking and the way you describe them makes them look more like just another entitled mafia.

Pulling out of debates that dont include Harper is not falling into one of Harper's traps. The worst thing the opposition can do is repeatedly engage in nationally televised debates amongst themselves casting mud onto each other in prime time. If the idiots in the liberal and green camp cant understand this they are doomed to fail more than just at the polls.

The media should do its work dealing with real pressing issues. Not this petty ego bs. The media isnt owed anything. The media owes canadians professional and impartial reporting on the issues that matter.

I was being somewhat sarcastic but I find your reasoning on backing out of the debates interesting. In my opinion there can't be too many debates. If leaders decide to spend that time slinging mud at each other so be it. If they are threatened by it, believe that tactically it could hurt them rather than benefit them, that tells me something.

As far as I know the consortium debates have not been formally cancelled.

socialdemocrati...

More debates are good. But I agree with Pierre: Harper's trap would be getting the opposition parties into a debate without him, slamming each other while he looks good just by abstention.

Misfit Misfit's picture

I want to see Harper lose. He has to go. And let's hope we can have normal elections, normal debates at a proper time in the election such as two weeks before the actual vote, and no more electoral fraud in the future. Sorry, I just had to vent.

Pierre C yr

Of course more debates are good... most will miss the summer ones anyway. But Harper needs to be there. Debates without Harper make no sense and will damage all of the opposition.

DLivings

Misfit wrote:
I want to see Harper lose. He has to go. And let's hope we can have normal elections, normal debates at a proper time in the election such as two weeks before the actual vote, and no more electoral fraud in the future. Sorry, I just had to vent.

I expect most of us agree with your sentiment!

Brachina

 I will be on Youtube for people to watch latter, unless one has no access to the net, there is no excuse not to watch it.

NorthReport

Nanos polls 250 each week for 4 weeks for a national poll across Canada.

Do you think he even gets 100 people in all of AC for his national polls yet no challenges him do they?

What is the standard size for a national poll, and how may would be in Atlantic Canada?

bekayne wrote:

mark_alfred wrote:

Wow.

Quote:

In the formerly Liberal fortress of Atlantic Canada, the NDP has nearly half the support (45 per cent), while the Liberals are in a solid second (38 per cent).

Sample of only 121 though.

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