2016 USA Senate Elections

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NorthReport
2016 USA Senate Elections

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NorthReport

Trump Effect in N.H. Sparks Worries for a GOP Senate

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2016/08/05/trump_effect_in_nh_...

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2016 Senate Election Interactive Map

http://www.270towin.com/2016-senate-election/

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Today’s Senate seat-count histogram *snapshot*

http://election.princeton.edu/todays-senate-seat-count-histogram/

josh

As of now I think the Democrats would win the four seats necessary to control the senate with a Clinton win.

NorthReport

GLASS CEILING

Where Are All the Republican Women?

There are fewer Republican women in Congress now than in 2006. The trend repeats at every level of government.

 

http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2016/08/gop-republican-women-poli...

NorthReport

Paul Ryan should win his nomination for the Senate election tonite

sherpa-finn

FWIW, Ryan is running for his usual seat in the House of Reps, - not the Senate. 

jerrym

An excellent summary of every 2016 Senate race can be found at:

 

http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2016/Senate/senate_races.html

 

 

 

NorthReport

Paul Ryan will be the GOP nominee in 2020

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Democrats presently in the lead 45-44

2016 Senate Election Interactive Map

34 U.S. Senate seats to be contested in 2016

http://www.270towin.com/2016-senate-election/

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Sean in Ottawa

So this would be how I would break this down

There are now 54 Republican, 44 Democrat and 2 Independent seats

Up for grabs are 24 Republican and 10 Democrat held seats

Meaning there are now

30 Republican and 34 Democrat and 2 Ind that are decided for now

So we look at the race

12 Safe Republicans and 8 Safe Democrats

So we can assume with the ones not being contested

42 Republican and 42 Democrats 2 INDD plus 14 up for grabs

Of those leaning we get 5 leaning Republican and 3 leaning Democrat. If we assume that those go that way we would get:

47 Republican 45 Democrat 2 IND and 6 Toss Up.

If we assumed tossups split evenly we would have:

50 Republicans 48 Democrat and 2 Independents.

Can you explain how this is 47-47 from this site as I don't see that conclusion? Or is there some other assumption that is undeclared here?

Sean in Ottawa

Sean in Ottawa wrote:

So this would be how I would break this down

There are now 54 Republican, 44 Democrat and 2 Independent seats

Up for grabs are 24 Republican and 10 Democrat held seats

Meaning there are now

30 Republican and 34 Democrat and 2 Ind that are decided for now

So we look at the race

12 Safe Republicans and 8 Safe Democrats

So we can assume with the ones not being contested

42 Republican and 42 Democrats 2 INDD plus 14 up for grabs

Of those leaning we get 5 leaning Republican and 3 leaning Democrat. If we assume that those go that way we would get:

47 Republican 45 Democrat 2 IND and 6 Toss Up.

If we assumed tossups split evenly we would have:

50 Republicans 48 Democrat and 2 Independents.

Can you explain how this is 47-47 from this site as I don't see that conclusion? Or is there some other assumption that is undeclared here?

Okay so, we add the two independents to the Democrats because they caucus with them (Bernie Sanders and Angus King). Ok so that works.

The thing is that of the Republican total there are more who are not safe in list than in the Democrat total -- based on this we might predict that the Democrats and allied independents are more likely to get 51-49 in their favour than the republicans to get 51-49 in theirs. Does that make sense?

Sean in Ottawa

So based on this we could say -- even to leaning Democrat

NorthReport
NorthReport

I have waiting patiently for this to happen, as it was only a matter of time with Trump at the head of the GOP ticket. The Democrats are now leading in the race for control of the Senate. And remember if it's 50-50, the Vice-President breaks the tie.

 

Senate snapshot (49 polls): Dem+Ind: 51, GOP: 49, Meta-margin: D +2.7%

 

http://election.princeton.edu/todays-senate-seat-count-histogram/

Sean in Ottawa

NorthReport wrote:

I have waiting patiently for this to happen, as it was only a matter of time with Trump at the head of the GOP ticket. The Democrats are now leading in the race for control of the Senate. And remember if it's 50-50, the Vice-President breaks the tie.

 

Senate snapshot (49 polls): Dem+Ind: 51, GOP: 49, Meta-margin: D +2.7%

 

http://election.princeton.edu/todays-senate-seat-count-histogram/

This is a good thing. Or if not good -- at least a slightly better thing.

NorthReport

Rather than the shilling nonsense and just utter garbage we hear most of the time on the cable news networks, like CNN, MSNBC and Fox, and most of the mainstream press, there actually are some political scientists that actually try to use science in their work. They include Josh Putnam, Sam Wang, Nate Silver, Larry Sabato, and 270towin.

I only discovered Sam Wang and Josh Punam within the past year and have been quite impressed with their respective analyses.

Sam Wang has been showing the Senate at 50-50 for quite some time, and he seems quite scientific with his forecasts, so for him to shift to 51-49 tells me this is significant. 

This year Americans are faced with what appears to be 2 defective candidates for president, so I support Clinton not with enthusiasm, but only because she appears to be the lesser of 2 evils. My hunch is that she will win. Obama has had real difficulty getting legislation passed with a GOP controlled Congress, so hopefully Clinton will have at least a Dem Senate to work with, although chances of a complete sweep of Congress for the Democrats are probably next to nil. 

 

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The Democrats are not only rebounding in the presidential race as they also have rebounded in the race for control of the Senate

http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/upshot/senate-election-forecast....

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NorthReport

Now, if the Dems can get the House as well.

Senate Update: The Last Week Has Been Very Kind To Democrats’ Hopes For A Majority

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/senate-update-the-last-week-has-been...

NorthReport
NorthReport

Gotta love democracy. Whoever has the biggest cash wad usually wins.  And then we wonder why we end up with the one percenters for country leaders who promote and pass legislation that benefit themselves and their fellow one percenters, eh! Never underestimate man's stupidity when it comes to politics and a few other things as well. Laughing

Panicking GOP makes major last-minute Senate investment

‘We’re going to go out guns blazing,' Mitch McConnell ally says.

 

http://www.politico.com/story/2016/10/panicking-gop-makes-major-last-min...

NorthReport

A bit late now doncha think? Jeez!

But if he's their Golden Boy the Democrats probably don't have much to worry 'bout.

Top Democrats steamed that party letting Rubio skate 

Bill Clinton, Harry Reid and donors believe the national party should be doing a lot more to take out the GOP golden boy.

 

http://www.politico.com/story/2016/10/democrats-marco-rubio-florida-sena...

 

NorthReport

 

Hey Cody still awake?

You might want to load up on the crying towels.

Senate Democrats Poised to Pick Up 5-7 Seats

Senate Republicans had been doing a pretty solid job of maintaining their distance from GOP presidential nominee Donald Trump by running their own campaign that focused largely on more local issues or those issues that motivate their base. The strategy was working fine and it looked as if Republicans would be able to keep their losses low. That is until October 7 when The Washington Post reported on the existence of the Access Hollywood tape in which Trump described sexually assaulting women. Then things started to unravel, albeit slowly. 

Assuming that Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton wins the White House, the party needs four seats to tie the chamber, leaving the Vice President as the tie breaking vote. For much of the cycle, we have expected Democrats to score a net gain of between four and six seats. Since the release of the Access Hollywood tape, Senate Republicans have seen their fortunes dip, particularly in states like Florida, North Carolina, New Hampshire, Nevada and Pennsylvania where Clinton has established a lead. In fact, of the Senate seats in the Toss Up column, Trump only leads in Indiana and Missouri where both Republicans are running a few points behind him. 

Early voting is underway in 27 states, so Republicans don’t really have much time to turn things around, and Trump won’t be any help, especially his campaign doesn’t really have a ground game to speak of. The GOP’s only hope is to start running a checks-and-balances message, or more blatantly, a don’t-give-Clinton-a-blank-check message to motivate their base, particularly what one strategist called “casual Republicans,” to the polls. We are starting to see that message in some red and purple states as candidates work to tie Democratic candidate to Clinton. 

History shows that races in the Toss Up column never split down the middle; one party tends to win the lion’s share of them.  Since 1998, no party has won less than 67 percent of the seats in Toss Up. While the 2016 election has broken every political science rule and trend, we’d be surprised if this becomes one of them. 

 

NorthReport
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The Democrats have a 54% chance of winning the Senate

http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/upshot/senate-election-forecast....

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6079_Smith_W

Mr. Magoo

I'd love to see it, if only because it seems to feature Alan Tudyk.

But it wont' play on three different browsers.  And there are no comments, on YT, after three days, so I'm guessing it won't play on anyone else's three browsers either.

Were you able to watch it?

6079_Smith_W

Geez. It's youtube. Try this one:

http://www.avclub.com/article/joss-whedons-latest-psa-stars-chris-pine-p...

It is very funny.

 

Mr. Magoo

OK, that worked, that was AWESOME, and Wash didn't die!