2020 Democratic presidential nominee 2

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MegB
2020 Democratic presidential nominee 2

Continued from here.

JKR

https://www.predictit.org/markets/13/Prez-Election

https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/2721/Which-party-will-win-the-2020-US-presidential-election

https://www.electionbettingodds.com/

According to these sites, the election is currently a tossup between Trump and Biden. For the presidential election, the Democrats currently  have a slight advantage over the Republicans.

Sean in Ottawa

Betting odds go out the window when you have large numbers of irrational people and widespread ignorance. Just look at the numbers showing Clinton having a better cahnce than Sanders and Trump having a lower chance than Biden in the Primaries -- discount these.

I think the Trump administration chances are fading by the day.

1) The Democrats who would have supported Sanders have sacrificed the Sanders campaign in order to unite around defeating Trump. 

2) The numbers of voters in the primary are jumping in leaps and bounds

3) The economy of the US looks like it is taking a quadrupal whammy: Oil price war, Covid19, being past the natural end of the bull period, US incompetence and lack of confidence in Trump

4) Coronavirus has been deemed a conspiracy by Trump but the evidence of his incompetence on this is and will be undeniable as people die, statistics on testing show it, and the Trump response fails. People regardless of politics will be angry when people they know die. If 1% of the US dies (very likely at this point) -- US has the most vulnerable population in the world - a combination of obese, diabetic, old in a healthcare system that is disconnected and cannot cope, governed by people with a profit focus in a country with lots of movement due to wealth that is engaging in political rallies for an election -- they will be angry at the authorities. Everyone will know someone to be angry about. Sure maybe a change in direction but hope for that is fading.

 

Sean in Ottawa

Unless you believe in a cronavirus miracle Trump is done electorally (in a normal election). He may have to make an authoritarian move by fall.

1 ramp up the cheating beyond any seen so far

2 move directly to prevent the election loss (perhaps using the emergency to do so) - while unlikely I do not conisder it possible to rule out if a loss became more likely

NDPP

The Corporations and Their Media Strangled Bernie, and Older Black Voters Tied the Knot

https://www.blackagendareport.com/corporations-and-their-media-strangled...

"...The corporate media is the culprit that spreads mass disinformation on the political opinions of all American constituencies, creating a counter-reality that conforms to the interests of its ruling class owners. In short, they lie for a living. With constant, 24-7 repetition it works.

Bernie Sanders threatened to end the austerity 'Race to the bottom' regime (though not its interlocking foreign policy component, endless wars) with a fistful of new health, education and labor entitlements plus a Green New Deal (a concept, not reality a bill) that would force the Lords of Capital to cede some control of the heights of the economy to the people. This was unacceptable to the rulers, who told the corporate media to make Sanders unacceptable to the electorate, by hook, crook and massive disinformation. Joe Biden is the wholly undeserving beneficiary of this coordinated corporate media campaign..."

Misfit Misfit's picture

Regarding NDPP's video in the previous uncontinued thread post #774 I believe, 

In the video Biden is asked if he would veto a universal Medicare for all program if it passed a vote in the House of Congress. Biden talked about the projected cost of the program and asked where they were going to find the 33 trillion cost over the next ten years?

Biden is not deducting the cost of the existing system that is in place from that total to show the difference between the two programs. It won't cost 33 trillion dollars more when he explains to Americans that they will no longer be paying their monthly insurance premiums that they pay now. Private insurance companies are in the racket to make money. Americans would no longer be paying for the cost of those profits to the private companies for the privelage of receiving restricted access to required services.

Sean in Ottawa

Misfit wrote:

Regarding NDPP's video in the previous uncontinued thread post #774 I believe, 

In the video Biden is asked if he would veto a universal Medicare for all program if it passed a vote in the House of Congress. Biden talked about the projected cost of the program and asked where they were going to find the 33 trillion cost over the next ten years?

Biden is not deducting the cost of the existing system that is in place from that total to show the difference between the two programs. It won't cost 33 trillion dollars more when he explains to Americans that they will no longer be paying their monthly insurance premiums that they pay now. Private insurance companies are in the racket to make money. Americans would no longer be paying for the cost of those profits to the private companies for the privelage of receiving restricted access to required services.

I think that it is unclear what Biden would do. The framers of the legislation need to build the case for it economically. This case can be made -- not the least becuase it removes from business the overburden of health insurance costs that they pay that are inefficient. The savings will have to be quantified. The argument that a healthier population has economic benefits is a natural one.

They will have to defend this as a new program that is likely to be launched in a recession. The investment in a recession would be one of the best stumaltions conceivable. Reversing some of the deep tax cuts on the wealthiest would make the final link.

Still, the program must be presented properly defended from an economic as well as a social point of view.

I do not think this is a major obstacle if done properly. In this case, if passed by congress I doubt it would be vetoed. Maybe I am wrong but this is how I would apporach it as an advocate.

NDPP

Chris Floyd: Blowing in the Whirlwind: As Ye Sow, Joe Shall Ye Reap

https://counterpunch.org/2020/03/11/blowing-in-the-whirlwind-as-ye-sow-j...

"...While I sorely hate undercutting any argument against Biden, I do believe it is possible for old Joe to defeat Trump. Here's how it's likely to play out, if Biden is the nominee..."

Sean in Ottawa

NDPP wrote:

Chris Floyd: Blowing in the Whirlwind: As Ye Sow, Joe Shall Ye Reap

https://counterpunch.org/2020/03/11/blowing-in-the-whirlwind-as-ye-sow-j...

"...While I sorely hate undercutting any argument against Biden, I do believe it is possible for old Joe to defeat Trump. Here's how it's likely to play out, if Biden is the nominee..."

Very good article.

I would add that this election is a referendum on Trump. It does matter to some what Trump says but little what others say. No not fair but there it is.

Biden offers nothing. But for many Americans this nothing is a whole lot better than what Trump is offering. Biden offers a rest. Maybe a tired old many who will sleep off 4 years is just what Americans want. They may feel that selling that is easier than a revolution that might promise so much more but in the act of promise actually mean a risk. It is not evidence based why people think Biden has a better chance but it comes from the logic you have when you ask for less hoping the universe will grant that much.

Now Sanders is forced unfairly, but forced all the same, into deciding if his screwing merits a stand that decreases the chance that the Democrats can beat Trump without really increasing the chance that he can prevail. Many poeple who probably prefer Sanders are turning from him to settle.Perhaps like people settle when theya re too tired to fight for more and want to just keep their heads above water. It is a bad plan but it is the plan. Better hope that things are better prepared for 2024. By then two losses to poor candidates and two terms of extremism might make the ground fertile for a gamble on better. That is of course, if there is an election in 2024. Sometimes you just miss your moment.

jerrym

Bernie has challenged Biden with a series of questions on issues for Sunday's upcoming debate.These questions that he has raised during the campaign demand answers that address these issues if Biden has any hope of gaining Bernie's supporters votes. My son is a 19 year old video game player in Canada who virtually every night interacts with at least one of his six fellow young video game players in the US, all of whom support Bernie. Only one of the six says he will vote for Biden. The others plan on not voting unless Bernie somehow wins. Definitely a non-scientific response but I suspect fairly representative of a young generation who feels it is getting screwed by the lack of medicare, student debt, low wage jobs even for many of the well educated etc.

Bernie's full remarks are included in video form at the url below: 

After disappointing results in primary contests held in six states on Tuesday, Sen. Bernie Sanders held a press conference in his hometown of Burlington, Vermont on Wednesday to offer a "campaign update" and said that while the delegate math to win the Democratic presidential nomination is not in his favor, he intends to stay in the race at least through this Sunday's one-on-one debate with frontrunner Joe Biden.

"We have won the ideological debate, but we are losing the debate over electability," Sanders said in his remarks. "I cannot tell you how many people our campaign has spoken to who say they agree with us but will vote for Joe because they believe he's the best to beat Donald Trump. Needless to say, I strongly disagree with that assertion, but that's what millions of Democrats and independents say. On Sunday, I very much look forward to the debate." ...

Sanders told reporters that he wants answers from Biden about a number of issues that the Vermont senator has centered his campaign on and that polls have confirmed are important to Democratic primary voters.

"Joe, what are you going to do for the 500,000 people who go bankrupt in our country because of medically related debt, and what are you going to do for the working people of this country and small business people who are paying, on average, 20% of their income for healthcare?" Sanders said he plans to ask Biden on Sunday. "Joe, how are you going to respond to the scientists who tell us we have seven or eight years remaining to transform our energy system before irreparable harm takes place [on] this planet because of the ravages of climate change?"

Sanders pointed out that in 20 primary states—all the states with exit poll data available—majorities of voters said in exit polls that they support Medicare for All. Exit polls in Mississippi, which Biden won by the widest margin in the primary so far, showed that 62% of voters back the proposal. Biden's healthcare proposal would leave an estimated 10 million people uninsured, according to NBC News.

"Joe, what are you going to do to end the absurdity of the United States of America being the only major country on Earth where healthcare is not a human right? Are you really going to veto a Medicare for All bill if it is passed in Congress?" said Sanders, referring to Biden's comments to that effect on Monday. 

Sanders' comments followed calls from Rep. James Clyburn (D-S.C.) and Democratic strategist James Carville Tuesday night for the cancellation of the upcoming debate in Arizona. Clyburn said the Democratic National Committee should "shut this primary down" after Biden's success in at least four states on Tuesday while Carville told MSNBC, "This thing is decided."

Biden currently has 837 delegates out of 1,991 needed to win, while Sanders has 689. A number of states with large delegate counts have yet to vote, including New York, Illinois, Pennsylvania, and Ohio.

Sanders expressed his intention to allow voters to see the two Democratic candidates in a one-on-one debate, before many cast their ballots.

"Donald Trump must be defeated, and I will do everything in my power to make that happen," Sanders said. "On Sunday night in the first one-on-one debate of this campaign, the American people will have the opportunity to see which candidate is best positioned to accomplish that goal."

https://www.commondreams.org/news/2020/03/11/bernie-not-going-anywhere-u...

 

JKR

I sure wish Hillary Clinton won the last election.

Left Turn Left Turn's picture

Sean in Ottawa wrote:
Better hope that things are better prepared for 2024. By then two losses to poor candidates and two terms of extremism might make the ground fertile for a gamble on better. That is of course, if there is an election in 2024. Sometimes you just miss your moment.

In 2024 the oligarchs will want a corporate backed Democratic candidate who can win the general election. They don't want that in this election cycle. Hence they're backing Biden.

Left Turn Left Turn's picture

JKR wrote:

I sure wish Hillary Clinton won the last election.

The oligarchs didn't want Clinton to win. After two terms of a Democratic President, they wanted a Republican.

Michael Moriarity Michael Moriarity's picture

NDPP wrote:

Chris Floyd: Blowing in the Whirlwind: As Ye Sow, Joe Shall Ye Reap

https://counterpunch.org/2020/03/11/blowing-in-the-whirlwind-as-ye-sow-j...

"...While I sorely hate undercutting any argument against Biden, I do believe it is possible for old Joe to defeat Trump. Here's how it's likely to play out, if Biden is the nominee..."

This is an interesting analysis of the electoral situation in the U.S. and well worth a read, in my opinion.

Chris Floyd wrote:

Sanders has had to wage his campaign with the entire weight of the bipartisan power structure against him: the Democratic Party, the Republican Party, Wall Street, the Pentagon, the “security organs,” the national media across the board. The vote counts in caucuses and primaries are obviously being obfuscated or, when all else fails, simply left uncounted in large numbers, as in Texas and California.

But if and when the Sanders’ campaign is subsequently derailed down the road, I no longer think it can be laid entirely at the door of the conniving players in the power structure. The lion’s share, perhaps – but there seems to be something else in the air of Campaign 2020. (Aside from Covid-19.) I think, perhaps, that we have come to such a crisis point on so many fronts that things are simply too overwhelming for most people to process, much less deal with, in any realistic way. Some strange combination of fatalism and magical thinking seems to have taken hold of large swathes of the electorate.

epaulo13 epaulo13's picture

Bernie Sanders: We Are Winning “Ideological” & “Generational” Debate, Now Need to Win “Electability”

quote:

But it is not just the ideological debate that our progressive movement is winning. We are winning the generational debate. While Joe Biden continues to do very well with older Americans, especially those people over 65, our campaign continues to win the vast majority of the votes of younger people. And I am talking about people not just in their twenties, but in their thirties and their forties. The younger generations of this country continue, in very strong numbers, to support our campaign. Today I say to the Democratic establishment, in order to win in the future, you need to win the voters who represent the future of our country, and you must speak to the issues of concern to them. You cannot simply be satisfied by winning the votes of people who are older.

While our campaign has won the ideological debate, we are losing the debate over electability. I cannot tell you how many people our campaign has spoken to who have said, and I quote, “I like what your campaign stands for. I agree with what your campaign stands for. But I’m going to vote for Joe Biden, because I think Joe is the best candidate to defeat Donald Trump,” end of quote. We have heard that statement all over this country. Needless to say, I strongly disagree with that assertion, but that is what millions of Democrats and independents today believe.

NorthReport

Trump's response to COVID-19 could become his undoing.

Donald Trump’s Perfect Storm

https://policymagazine.ca/donald-trumps-perfect-storm/

kropotkin1951

NorthReport wrote:

Trump's response to COVID-19 could become his undoing.

Donald Trump’s Perfect Storm

https://policymagazine.ca/donald-trumps-perfect-storm/

I think that is about the one hundredth and forty third thing you have suggested might be the Orange Herring's undoing.

Misfit Misfit's picture

But if it works and it is his undoing then it is better to have 143 rather than just one.When it comes to Trump I personally like undoings and I like to hear about all of them.

Sean in Ottawa

Misfit wrote:

But if it works and it is his undoing then it is better to have 143 rather than just one.When it comes to Trump I personally like undoings and I like to hear about all of them.

It may be cummulative. It is also impossible to measure until the election so he might need to be undone many times over before we know it is done. Like an oak stake through the heart type of thing. Two might be better than one.

I am inclined to think that this economic crisis and coronavirus situation is likley to be enough when many previous things should have been enough but clearly ended up not being.

That said the Trump train is very well protected. These are not supporters so much as cultists who will distort reality as required to not give up on their leader.

I am convinced that the Trump cult is a minority. The issue is will the majority vote? My fear about Biden is that he was uninspiring and would not get enough to come out and vote. However, things could be bad enough by November that enough people might consider a vote for a piece of petrified wood over Trump. For this to happen we would need to have a massive crisis that increasingly looks likely.

kropotkin1951

Misfit wrote:

But if it works and it is his undoing then it is better to have 143 rather than just one.When it comes to Trump I personally like undoings and I like to hear about all of them.

I think that the US voters are the same people who made reality TV the most popular genre of so called entertainment. They live inside a paradigm that is nearly impossible to decipher for the average non American.  The Orange Herring is not only the problem he is merely the latest and greatest manifestation of the immoral greedy infestation that is rooted in that self deluded society.

NorthReport

Yea we get it you hate America which quite frankly is a boring broken record

kropotkin1951

NorthReport wrote:

Yea we get it you hate America which quite frankly is a boring broken record

Thanks NR. You are one of the people whose opinion I value highly.

JKR

kropotkin1951 wrote:

NorthReport wrote:

Trump's response to COVID-19 could become his undoing.

Donald Trump’s Perfect Storm

https://policymagazine.ca/donald-trumps-perfect-storm/

I think that is about the one hundredth and forty third thing you have suggested might be the Orange Herring's undoing.

A deep recession and bungling a pandemic would likely undo any president. I think the only way Trump is hanging on to the presidency after January 2021 is martial law.

NDPP

'The Issues The Virus is Causing Are Literally Everything Progressives Have Been Trying To Fix For Years'

https://twitter.com/adamjohnsonNYC/status/1238199899960770563

"Absolute fucking madness we have a real time shock doctrine unfolding in FAVOR of basic social democracy and the democrats are about to nominate a man who can't finish sentences and spent the past 8 months attacking Medicare for All from the right."

NDPP

The Jimmy Dore Show

https://youtu.be/NVaNY4THm90

"Bernie declares 'Biden Can Beat Trump!' WTF?!?"

 

The Jimmy Dore Show

https://youtu.be/8Qaf7nhPbYA

"Progressives threaten to 'DemExit' over Biden."

NDPP

Tucker: Bernie Sanders May Be The Lamest Revolutionary Ever

https://youtu.be/Pqlu_BF-3Z8

"Pathetic..."

NDPP

The Jimmy Dore Show

https://youtu.be/Cb114eDkhTM

"Why Tulsi should STAY in primary race."

NDPP

"The only thing they said tonight that was politically important was Bernie committing not only to endorse Joe, but to demand that his supporters vote for Joe. We always knew Bernie would eventually do this, but it was politically significant that Joe got him to vocally commit to do it."

https://twitter.com/mtracey/status/1239374134842478592

Lots won't.

NorthReport

Biden is now favoured to win the presidency

contrarianna

Polls mean next to nothing at this time. Trump will be hard to dislodge for many reasons. 
On  Nov 7, 2016 Clinton was 3.2% ahead in the popular polls. Final electoral college results: 232 Clinton Trump 306. 
====
A realist view:

Like the coronavirus, the virus of unbridled destructive corporatism will not be stopped. Human and environmental devstation at best can be de-accelerated. You can only "flatten the curve" of this tragi-comedy.

The disgusting DNC/media annointed Biden is the only voting choice for any sentient being who wants to give the planet a little more time.

What decent human could see no difference in an election outcome, even based on the narrow criterium of  upcoming Supreme Court appointments.

You will see any person of good will who is not blinded by ideological puritism or partisanship supporting Biden over Trump.
This will include many supporters of Sanders who would be thought to stay home during the election.
You will certainly see the likes of Chomsky speaking out forcefully for the Biden ticket, though certainly with no illusions.

bekayne

contrarianna wrote:

Polls mean next to nothing at this time. Trump will be hard to dislodge for many reasons. 
On  Nov 7, 2016 Clinton was 3.2% ahead in the popular polls. Final electoral college results: 232 Clinton Trump 306. 
===

And she won the popular vote by 2.1%

Left Turn Left Turn's picture

kropotkin1951 wrote:

NorthReport wrote:

Trump's response to COVID-19 could become his undoing.

Donald Trump’s Perfect Storm

https://policymagazine.ca/donald-trumps-perfect-storm/

I think that is about the one hundredth and forty third thing you have suggested might be the Orange Herring's undoing.

It's like the old proverbial saying that Marxists have successfully predicted 15 of the last two economic crashes.

Left Turn Left Turn's picture

JKR wrote:

kropotkin1951 wrote:

NorthReport wrote:

Trump's response to COVID-19 could become his undoing.

Donald Trump’s Perfect Storm

https://policymagazine.ca/donald-trumps-perfect-storm/

I think that is about the one hundredth and forty third thing you have suggested might be the Orange Herring's undoing.

A deep recession and bungling a pandemic would likely undo any president. I think the only way Trump is hanging on to the presidency after January 2021 is martial law.

Either that or Joe Biden gets the Democratic nomination and then proceeds to have enough more visible cognitive decline between now and November that only the most diehard Democratic partisans can bring themselves to vote for him.

JKR

Left Turn wrote:

Either that or Joe Biden gets the Democratic nomination and then proceeds to have enough more visible cognitive decline between now and November that only the most diehard Democratic partisans can bring themselves to vote for him.

Either that or maybe next week while the stable genius Donald Trump is whipping himself up a ham sandwich in the Whitehouse kitchen he will also use pixie dust to whip up an antidote for Covid-19! Of course he would then go on to win the election by the greatest landslide in U.S. history?!?!?!?

Aristotleded24

Georgia has postponed its primary over covid-19. The Democrats are being criticized for proceeding with primaries while this is going on.

bekayne

Aristotleded24 wrote:

Georgia has postponed its primary over covid-19. The Democrats are being criticized for proceeding with primaries while this is going on.

The states run the primaries, not the parties, there are down ballot races in each state.

Aristotleded24
josh

Tulsi Gabbard drops out, endorses Biden.

https://t.co/52EVC7KPAx

 

Aristotleded24

josh wrote:
Tulsi Gabbard drops out, endorses Biden.

https://t.co/52EVC7KPAx

Disappointing. Biden has been wrong on almost every foreign policy issue that Gabbard has made the centre of her campaign. Stating that "Biden has won the nomination" is also an Establishment move, the opposite of her deciding to endorse Bernie in 2016. Her whole appeal was being against the Establishment. Many people who were attracted to this movement because of that are going to feel betrayed. I know I have certainly lost respect for her.

NDPP

The Jimmy Dore Show

https://youtu.be/LfSvNRLTKC4

"Justice department drops Russiagate prosecution admits defeat."

(and Bernie bends his knee to the DNC)

NorthReport

Wonderful news that Tulsi is supporting Biden, which will help to ensure Trump's defeat.

kropotkin1951

Trump is going to start sending US families monthly checks between now and November. I think that coupled with his anti-Chinese rants will ensure he keeps all of his supporters from last time. The good news for Biden is that with large gatherings being banned his lack of the kind of grass roots support that fills stadiums will not be apparent.

contrarianna

Aristotleded24 wrote:

josh wrote:
Tulsi Gabbard drops out, endorses Biden.

https://t.co/52EVC7KPAx

Disappointing. Biden has been wrong on almost every foreign policy issue that Gabbard has made the centre of her campaign. Stating that "Biden has won the nomination" is also an Establishment move, the opposite of her deciding to endorse Bernie in 2016. Her whole appeal was being against the Establishment. Many people who were attracted to this movement because of that are going to feel betrayed. I know I have certainly lost respect for her.

What you say about Biden is certainly true, but unless he self-destructs medically and his delegates anoint another mainstream figure, he has got the nomination. Despite his falsehoods, Biden in the last debate with Sanders did not not have massive brainfarts, and that counts as a major win in the media. Biden may decide he doesn't even need to show up for the next debate.

Most Sanders workers know this even though he remains in the race for strategic reasons, and to push his messaging on the coronavirus:

Sanders backers believe that the senator needs to remain in the race to push Biden in a more progressive direction.

In the campaign’s email, Shakir told supporters that Sanders will vote on the coronavirus relief bill in the Senate Wednesday and afterward head back home to Vermont with his wife Jane.

“Once there, they’ll begin holding conversations with supporters to get input and assess the path forward for our campaign,” the email read....

https://www.kxly.com/i/bernie-sanders-says-he-is-assessing-his-president...

I don't know when Sanders will withdraw, but I predict that when he does he will very much be behind Biden and urge his followers to do so also. I don't fault Gabbard. Though her foreign policy is sane and the antithesis of Biden's history, not supporting Biden would aid in bringing on another even worse Trump/Republican government .   My take on this is in post #30.

NDPP

The Jimmy Dore Show

https://twitter.com/Tim_Canova/status/1240765931204349961

"Bernie is being cheated again. Will he fight it?/Tim Canova

Fixed game. Always was. Always will be.

Cody87

kropotkin1951 wrote:
I think that coupled with his anti-Chinese rants 

I've been a little distracted lately and haven't been paying attention. Has he been criticizing Chinese people, or just "Chyna"?

kropotkin1951

Cody87 wrote:

kropotkin1951 wrote:
I think that coupled with his anti-Chinese rants 

I've been a little distracted lately and haven't been paying attention. Has he been criticizing Chinese people, or just "Chyna"?

Is there any difference when it comes to the effect it has on Asian people living in the US including citizens? It is racism 101 so please lets not debate whether or not Trump should be vilifying China because it might not be racism according to people who don't understand human rights.

 

Aristotleded24

kropotkin1951 wrote:
Cody87 wrote:

kropotkin1951 wrote:
I think that coupled with his anti-Chinese rants 

I've been a little distracted lately and haven't been paying attention. Has he been criticizing Chinese people, or just "Chyna"?

Is there any difference when it comes to the effect it has on Asian people living in the US including citizens? It is racism 101 so please lets not debate whether or not Trump should be vilifying China because it might not be racism according to people who don't understand human rights.

I think it's important to have a nuanced conversation here. It may be true that the Chinese government made mis-steps (or a cover-up, depending on who you ask) that allowed the situation to blow up when it didn't have to. But you're right, viruses don't respect nationalities or ethnicities. You get sick, you get sick, it doesn't matter who you are. Whatever mis-steps the Chinese government may have made, we should still be vigilant and skeptical of governments in our own part of the world, and call out our own governmental failures as well.

kropotkin1951

I think that we don't need to be any more nuanced than the WHO best practices guidelines. This is racist drivel and recognized as such before this outbreak of COVID.

8 May 2015 | GENEVA - WHO today called on scientists, national authorities and the media to follow best practices in naming new human infectious diseases to minimize unnecessary negative effects on nations, economies and people.

“In recent years, several new human infectious diseases have emerged. The use of names such as ‘swine flu’ and ‘Middle East Respiratory Syndrome’ has had unintended negative impacts by stigmatizing certain communities or economic sectors,” says Dr Keiji Fukuda, Assistant Director-General for Health Security, WHO. “This may seem like a trivial issue to some, but disease names really do matter to the people who are directly affected. We’ve seen certain disease names provoke a backlash against members of particular religious or ethnic communities, create unjustified barriers to travel, commerce and trade, and trigger needless slaughtering of food animals. This can have serious consequences for peoples’ lives and livelihoods.”

Diseases are often given common names by people outside of the scientific community. Once disease names are established in common usage through the Internet and social media, they are difficult to change, even if an inappropriate name is being used. Therefore, it is important that whoever first reports on a newly identified human disease uses an appropriate name that is scientifically sound and socially acceptable.

The best practices apply to new infections, syndromes, and diseases that have never been recognized or reported before in humans, that have potential public health impact, and for which there is no disease name in common usage. They do not apply to disease names that are already established.

https://www.who.int/mediacentre/news/notes/2015/naming-new-diseases/en/

 

Sean in Ottawa

I think that the world is in an emergency. Blaming what countries did in the past (true or false) has no benefit. It interferes with the ablity for people to work together now and it does stoke racism. I cannot beleive any person now who claims this is without racism. Why else would anyone do it now? How could anyone not be aware that it wuld cause harm and could not cause any benefit now.

In the future, governments are going to be analyzed in hindsight. I suspect many will be found to have initially failed and then later done much of the right things. China will be no outlier in this.

Noteworthy is that China has begun this process with itself. It is studying its response and admitting mistakes and making adjustments. On this issue I do not see how any other country has more to offer. Perhaps there will be a study that offers soemthing in the future -- perhaps it could be shared with China. What we are seeing now is a chorus of criticisms highlighting the mistakes China made that China has already highlighted themselves.

It is also noteworthy that China has used its experience and size to offer support to many other countries.

A related point: the H1N1 crisis -- the last one we had that killed 675,000 people started in the US. The "SPanish FLu" started in Kansas. Geography is not relevant now.

jerrym

The election will be a referendum on the response to COVID 19, which it could range from a sweeping Republican victory to a sweeping Democratic victory. If Trump either implements policies, even in a much belated manner, that bring the pandemic in the US in check or he gets  lucky and the virus dies down on its own ( a possible outcome if the virus acts like the flu virus and dies down in warmer weather and assuming it doesn't flare up again before the election in early November)  Trump and the Republicans win big. If the pandemic has a catastrophic outcome and little seems to be improving in dealing with it, the Democrats win big.

There is also the possibility that the Trump government response and the effect on the virus is a muddle of good and bad. In that case, the outcome will depend on who wins the battle between Republicans and Democrats to frame this as the election issue. Trump has the advantage in this regard because he is excellent at framing questions and distraction; the Republicans have a lot more money to help frame the issue in the mainstream and social media; and there is an inherent bias everywhere to rally behind a leader who is at least perceived to be trying to do something right in a crisis.

While the Democrats could win in a muddle sitation if they frame the issue and its related impacts on society adroitly, something the Democrats have not shown much ability to do, especially in the case of Biden, who is almost certainly going to be their nominee. 

Sean in Ottawa

jerrym wrote:

The election will be a referendum on the response to COVID 19, which it could range from a sweeping Republican victory to a sweeping Democratic victory. If Trump either implements policies, even in a much belated manner, that bring the pandemic in the US in check or he gets  lucky and the virus dies down on its own ( a possible outcome if the virus acts like the flu virus and dies down in warmer weather and assuming it doesn't flare up again before the election in early November)  Trump and the Republicans win big. If the pandemic has a catastrophic outcome and little seems to be improving in dealing with it, the Democrats win big.

There is also the possibility that the Trump government response and the effect on the virus is a muddle of good and bad. In that case, the outcome will depend on who wins the battle between Republicans and Democrats to frame this as the election issue. Trump has the advantage in this regard because he is excellent at framing questions and distraction; the Republicans have a lot more money to help frame the issue in the mainstream and social media; and there is an inherent bias everywhere to rally behind a leader who is at least perceived to be trying to do something right in a crisis.

While the Democrats could win in a muddle sitation if they frame the issue and its related impacts on society adroitly, something the Democrats have not shown much ability to do, especially in the case of Biden, who is almost certainly going to be their nominee. 

I think this is certainly true. However, I think the point being made by a few people in these threads includes the fact that the Trump crowd and the Democrat crowd are mostly locked in -- the group that will decide is a small number. This group of people, Trump has advantages with in part as he has the tools of state (sending out cash and greater volume to speak) and the general advantage the incumbant has. 

Trump has declared an emergency and will be seen to be the "wartime President" Americans like so much (better create a crisis in order to be seen managing it). The tools Trump will have could be extremely extensive and will be used to create electoral advantages for him you can be certain.

Aristotle pointed out that Trump does not have to do all that well to both out-perform the Democrats and to outperform expectations. 

I think there is also a great fear here due to the fact that Trump came from behind, is willing to cheat, has the advantage in the electoral college.

And none of this even starts to count the weaknesses of the Democrat candidate.

I think it is fairly shocking how weak the Democrat side is at this point given the lessons that could have been learned from 2016.

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