2020 US Presidential Election Polls

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NorthReport
2020 US Presidential Election Polls

The one big takeaway from every 2020 Democratic primary poll

The 2020 Democratic primary won’t really start until Joe Biden runs — or doesn’t

The Binder poll was a comparatively good survey for Booker and Klobuchar, who both hit 6 percent.

https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2019/3/28/18285455/2020-presidential-election-polls-joe-biden-democratic-primary-candidates

NorthReport
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NorthReport

Some benefits to the Mueller report at least for now.

Trump approval drops 3 points to 2019 low after release of Mueller report: Reuters/Ipsos poll

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trump-russia-poll/trump-approval-drops-3-points-to-2019-low-after-release-of-mueller-report-reuters-ipsos-poll-idUSKCN1RV16S?il=0

NorthReport

We are a long way away from voting day and it appears that Trump may have the US involved in another war, maybe with Iran by then, as desperate people do desperate things

https://www.politico.com/story/2019/04/22/trump-approval-mueller-report-1286386

Sean in Ottawa

NorthReport wrote:

We are a long way away from voting day and it appears that Trump may have the US involved in another war, maybe with Iran by then, as desperate people do desperate things

https://www.politico.com/story/2019/04/22/trump-approval-mueller-report-1286386

Maybe. It depends on if Trump wants to hold this war until early 2020. Unless Trump gets desperate I think this will come after the Canadian election if he can help it.

That said you could be right becuase Trump could let it out of control by provoking Iran into a response.

This is tragic for the people of Iran who are and will pay dearly for this.

NorthReport

Biden has a huge lead, especially in the non-white vote

http://cdn.cnn.com/cnn/2019/images/04/29/rel6a.-.2020.democrats.pdf

NorthReport

Nationwide opinion polling for the 2020 United States presidential election

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nationwide_opinion_polling_for_the_2020_United_States_presidential_election#Joe_Biden

NorthReport

How unpopular is Donald Trump?

An updating calculation of the president's approval rating, accounting for each poll's quality, recency, sample size and partisan lean. How this works »

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-approval-ratings/?ex_cid=rrpromo

NorthReport
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NorthReport

Warren closing in, now at 20% in latest Democratic Presidential candidate poll

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/2020_democratic_presidential_nomination-6730.html

NorthReport
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NorthReport

It's only one poll, and it can be misleading to cherrypick, but.........

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1TZ_phVL1vfC0P9b_RDH9ymdLRnk0lrrJ/view

NorthReport
Michael Moriarity Michael Moriarity's picture

NorthReport wrote:

Well things sure have changed, eh!

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-primary-forecast/

Wow, this shows Sanders ahead in almost every state, and far ahead in delegate totals at the convention. Projected pledged delegate totals: Sanders 1,510, Biden 1,029, Warren 610, Buttigieg 485, Bloomberg 239. If things go this way, it will destroy the Democratic party if Sanders is deprived of the nomination.

 

josh

If it goes that way, he will get the nomination.

NorthReport

It's just one poll but Biden is now 5th. Oh, my!

EXCLUSIVE 7NEWS/EMERSON COLLEGE TRACKING POLL: Klobuchar sees post-debate bump, Buttigieg slips

https://whdh.com/news/exclusive-7news-emerson-college-tracking-poll-klobuchar-sees-post-debate-bump-buttigieg-slips/

NorthReport
Aristotleded24

Majority approve of Trump's handling of coronavirus:

Quote:
The majority of Americans now approve of President Trump's handling of the coronavirus pandemic, a reversal from just one week prior, according to a new Ipsos/ABC News poll.

Of those surveyed, 55 percent said that they approved of the president's handling of the situation, while 43 percent said they disapproved. The numbers were basically reversed from one week ago when 54 percent said they disapproved and 43 percent approved.

Trump's tone and approach to the outbreak has changed in recent weeks, with the president now appearing at daily briefings at the White House with his coronavirus task force. Trump said this week that he knew that COVID-19 was a pandemic before it was labeled as such by the World Health Organization, despite his previous rhetoric downplaying the severity of the virus.

This during Biden's documented absence during the pandemic. Redardless of how this plays out, I'm confident in predicting Trump will come out on top. The Democrats have been lazy and hoped that Trump will implode without offering anything. If we've learned nothing else about him, it's that he's learned how to play people. Trump can flip any of his own criticism of the cornoavirus handling by reminding people that Joe Biden and the Democrats risked the lives of their own supporters by telling them to vote during a pandemic. If I were advising Trump, I would advise him to do just that.

Forget winning back the Rust Belt. Maine, Maryland, Virginia, Minnesota, Oregon, and Colorado are all now reasonably in play for Donald Trump. Biden is on track to fall short of 200 votes in the Electoral College, possibly even below 150. This kind of shift in voting patterns will also hand the popular vote to Trump.

NorthReport

It's normal to rally around the leader in times of crisis.

Give Americans a few months of this virus and we will see how Trump is faring then.

How unpopular is Donald Trump?

An updating calculation of the president's approval rating, accounting for each poll's quality, recency, sample size and partisan lean.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-approval-ratings/?ex_cid=rrpromo

NorthReport

In the Battle Against Coronavirus, Humanity Lacks Leadership

https://time.com/5803225/yuval-noah-harari-coronavirus-humanity-leadership/

Aristotleded24

Remember also that the Republican governor of Ohio pushed to postpone the Democratic Primary. Think about that. A Republican governor showing more concern for the health and safety of Democratic voters than their own party did.

Sean in Ottawa

Aristotleded24 wrote:

Remember also that the Republican governor of Ohio pushed to postpone the Democratic Primary. Think about that. A Republican governor showing more concern for the health and safety of Democratic voters than their own party did.

I think you are only looking at one side of this. The other side won't play well either.

https://www.rawstory.com/2020/03/republican-jim-inhofe-dumped-up-to-450000-in-stock-the-fourth-gop-senator-implicated-in-scandal-report/

Aristotleded24

Sean in Ottawa wrote:
Aristotleded24 wrote:

Remember also that the Republican governor of Ohio pushed to postpone the Democratic Primary. Think about that. A Republican governor showing more concern for the health and safety of Democratic voters than their own party did.

I think you are only looking at one side of this. The other side won't play well either.

https://www.rawstory.com/2020/03/republican-jim-inhofe-dumped-up-to-450000-in-stock-the-fourth-gop-senator-implicated-in-scandal-report/

Neither side is clean on this is my point. Trump doesn't have to be good on this. He just needs enough to flip it back on the Democrats. With the continuing of the Primary and the documented tone-deafness of the Democratic Party leadership as per Krystal Ball and Saagar Enjeti, Trump has exactly that.

Sean in Ottawa

Aristotleded24 wrote:

Sean in Ottawa wrote:
Aristotleded24 wrote:

Remember also that the Republican governor of Ohio pushed to postpone the Democratic Primary. Think about that. A Republican governor showing more concern for the health and safety of Democratic voters than their own party did.

I think you are only looking at one side of this. The other side won't play well either.

https://www.rawstory.com/2020/03/republican-jim-inhofe-dumped-up-to-450000-in-stock-the-fourth-gop-senator-implicated-in-scandal-report/

Neither side is clean on this is my point. Trump doesn't have to be good on this. He just needs enough to flip it back on the Democrats. With the continuing of the Primary and the documented tone-deafness of the Democratic Party leadership as per Krystal Ball and Saagar Enjeti, Trump has exactly that.

Fair enough. I think the next few months may change whomever has the edge as this is what people will be thinking about. It may be difficult to predict who will end up with the edge as the incumbant government is more likely prone to mistakes but also that is often where people turn in an emergency.

Also to your point, expectations for Trump are so low that he does not have to perform well to impress.

JKR

Aristotleded24 wrote:

Majority approve of Trump's handling of coronavirus:

Quote:
The majority of Americans now approve of President Trump's handling of the coronavirus pandemic, a reversal from just one week prior, according to a new Ipsos/ABC News poll.

Of those surveyed, 55 percent said that they approved of the president's handling of the situation, while 43 percent said they disapproved. The numbers were basically reversed from one week ago when 54 percent said they disapproved and 43 percent approved.

Trump's tone and approach to the outbreak has changed in recent weeks, with the president now appearing at daily briefings at the White House with his coronavirus task force. Trump said this week that he knew that COVID-19 was a pandemic before it was labeled as such by the World Health Organization, despite his previous rhetoric downplaying the severity of the virus.

This during Biden's documented absence during the pandemic. Redardless of how this plays out, I'm confident in predicting Trump will come out on top. The Democrats have been lazy and hoped that Trump will implode without offering anything. If we've learned nothing else about him, it's that he's learned how to play people. Trump can flip any of his own criticism of the cornoavirus handling by reminding people that Joe Biden and the Democrats risked the lives of their own supporters by telling them to vote during a pandemic. If I were advising Trump, I would advise him to do just that.

Forget winning back the Rust Belt. Maine, Maryland, Virginia, Minnesota, Oregon, and Colorado are all now reasonably in play for Donald Trump. Biden is on track to fall short of 200 votes in the Electoral College, possibly even below 150. This kind of shift in voting patterns will also hand the popular vote to Trump.

If Trump is re-elected the US will have sunk to an incredibly unbelievable low point.

Trump Uses Coronavirus Press Conference to Confirm He’s an Actual Sociopath; Vanity Fair

 

 

JKR
JKR
Aristotleded24

JKR wrote:
If Trump is re-elected the US will have sunk to an incredibly unbelievable low point.

Trump Uses Coronavirus Press Conference to Confirm He’s an Actual Sociopath; Vanity Fair

This is exactly why the Democrats keep losing. I and many others here have given specific reasons why the Democrats have failed, both in doing their actual jobs and at political strategy. You have not engaged that substance at all, opting only to respond with "but Trump! But Trump! But Trump!" We know Trump is bad. What are the Democrats actually offering? If you cannot refute the actual criticims thrown at Democrats, then you really don't have an argument to stand on.

And "Vanity Fair?" When hasn't this publication been anti-Trump? All these anti-Trump outlets are saying the same things they've been saying for 5 years, but they haven't yet figured out a way to break out and find an effective way to channel the anti-Trump sentiment to actually drive him out of office.

And please don't counter with the rebuttal that "Trump lost the popular vote." That's true. Do you know why? It's because New York and California, the 2 biggest states, are so safe for the Democratic Party that they campaigns instead focus on smaller swing states. You can bet that if the Electoral College was abolished, the Republicans would adjust their strategy, thus giving Republican voters in Texas, New York and California an incentive to come to the polls in possibly greater numbers than they do now. Doesn't matter anyways. I'm convinced that if Trump wins, it's going to be such a huge bloodbath in "safe" blue states that it will push Trump over the edge in the popular vote anyways. The official counts in Florida and Iowa were enough to give Bush the popular vote in 2004, now imagine what happens when all those states that stayed blue in 2004 flip to Trump.

JKR

Aristotleded24 wrote:

What are the Democrats actually offering?

Unlike Trump the the Democrats are offering to deal with the Coronavirus effectively by following scientific evidence instead of allowing insane paranoid partisan considerations to determine their actions. Unlike Trump, the Democrats are not going to view Covid-19 as a political threat instead of a humanitarian threat. Unlike Trump, the Democrats will work with other countries and the WHO to deal with Covid-19. Unlike Trump they won't be saying a miracle drug is just around the corner without evidence. Unlike Trump the Democrats will allow science and scientists to determine and lead the the effort to deal with COVID-19.

- The Democrats will expand healthcare in the US to cover many more Americans. I think Biden will pledge to enlarge healthcare in America to cover every single American.

- The Democrats are offering to appoint mainstream Supreme Court justices instead of right wing nut jobs.

- The Democrats are offering to deal with climate change instead of believing it's a hoax.

- The Democrats are offering to reduce student loan debt.

- The Democrats are offering to establish election campaign spending reforms that put greater limits on political contributions.

- The Democrats are offering to deal with homelessness.

- The Democrats are offering not to cut social programs like the Republicans have and continue to plan to.

- Unlike Trump the Democrats are offering to unite people instead of hating people.

Aristotleded24

JKR wrote:
- The Democrats will expand healthcare in the US to cover many more Americans. I think Biden will pledge to enlarge healthcare in America to cover every single American.

Which Democrats are you talking about? Biden in the debate cited Italy as proof that single payer health care isn't effective. The Democrats are in the back pockets of the same pharmeceutical and medical profiteers that are blocking single payer, and despite the massive mandate that was handed to him, Obama did not imlpement single payer or even fight for a public option when he had the chance. The reform he ended up introducing was something that Mitt Romney did in Massashusetts, which is why he couldn't go after him on Obamacare. But remember that the Republican party as a whole was able to score political points by criticizing it.

JKR wrote:
The Democrats are offering to appoint mainstream Supreme Court justices instead of right wing nut jobs.

I think that this is just a liberal fantasy projected onto the Democratic Party without any evidence and also a blatant attempt to scare people into voting for them. Did Obama fight at all to be able to appoint his own Supreme Court Justice after Scalia died? Has any Democratic candidate even raised that issue on the campaign trail, proposing any possible candidates? Bernie Sanders has not mentioned the Supreme Court at all, precisely because his platform is attractive enough that he doesn't have to resort to such tactics. We know that the Republicans are going to nominate horrible judges. I don't see any actual evidence that the Democrat picks will be any better.

JKR wrote:
The Democrats are offering to deal with climate change instead of believing it's a hoax.

Where is climate change on the public radar in the US, especially right now? Which Democrats are you talking about? Are you talking about Bernie Sanders, who while endorsed by the Sunrise Movement, is belived by many to be out of contention for the nomination at this point? Are you talking about AOC, who has been stymied and blocked by the leadership in the House including Nancy Pelosi? Are you talking about Diane Feinstein, who brushed off a group of school children begging for a Green New Deal and who earned praise from Ben Shaprio for so doing? The Democrats have accepted money from the same fossil fuel lobbyists as the Republicans, so they may have a bit of renewable energy in their platform, they still will continue the fossil fuel economy. Remember also that it was under Obama's watch that conflict with Native Americans in North Dakota and security forces over the pipeline reached a head.

JKR wrote:
The Democrats are offering to reduce student loan debt.

Which ones, and where? Repbulican Congressmen and Senators have also advocated debt relief in certain ways.

JKR wrote:
The Democrats are offering to establish election campaign spending reforms that put greater limits on political contributions.

Which ones?

JKR wrote:
The Democrats are offering not to cut social programs like the Republicans have and continue to plan to.

Democrats have also proposed means-tested benefits for people, while Mitt Romney has also advocated direct cash payments to all Americans.

JKR wrote:
Unlike Trump the Democrats are offering to unite people instead of hating people.

What does this plattitude mean? People want to see how practical realities play out in their daily lives. That is also tone-deaf to human nature. It's not uncommon for people who are generous with their time and money in helping people within their own communities to also think we are taking in too many refugees that we have to take care of. Also look at how countries have reacted around the world by closing borders. When Trudeau announced his inital border closures, he took a great deal of flack for not also barring Americans from entering. With this triablistic human instinct, Trump can very easliy promise to protect Americans by scapegoating outside agents, and that is a psychological trick that happens to work. I'm not defending any of this, but I always maintain that you cannot defeat what you cannot understand. Repeating the same liberal talking points that we have been since the Democrats have been losing Presidential elections in 2000, 2004, and 2016 will not advance anything.

NorthReport

Or maybe we have just shifted to the Right politically across the planet. 

JKR

Aristotleded24 wrote:

JKR wrote:
- The Democrats will expand healthcare in the US to cover many more Americans. I think Biden will pledge to enlarge healthcare in America to cover every single American.

Which Democrats are you talking about? Biden in the debate cited Italy as proof that single payer health care isn't effective. The Democrats are in the back pockets of the same pharmeceutical and medical profiteers that are blocking single payer, and despite the massive mandate that was handed to him, Obama did not imlpement single payer or even fight for a public option when he had the chance. The reform he ended up introducing was something that Mitt Romney did in Massashusetts, which is why he couldn't go after him on Obamacare. But remember that the Republican party as a whole was able to score political points by criticizing it.

JKR wrote:
The Democrats are offering to appoint mainstream Supreme Court justices instead of right wing nut jobs.

I think that this is just a liberal fantasy projected onto the Democratic Party without any evidence and also a blatant attempt to scare people into voting for them. Did Obama fight at all to be able to appoint his own Supreme Court Justice after Scalia died? Has any Democratic candidate even raised that issue on the campaign trail, proposing any possible candidates? Bernie Sanders has not mentioned the Supreme Court at all, precisely because his platform is attractive enough that he doesn't have to resort to such tactics. We know that the Republicans are going to nominate horrible judges. I don't see any actual evidence that the Democrat picks will be any better.

JKR wrote:
The Democrats are offering to deal with climate change instead of believing it's a hoax.

Where is climate change on the public radar in the US, especially right now? Which Democrats are you talking about? Are you talking about Bernie Sanders, who while endorsed by the Sunrise Movement, is belived by many to be out of contention for the nomination at this point? Are you talking about AOC, who has been stymied and blocked by the leadership in the House including Nancy Pelosi? Are you talking about Diane Feinstein, who brushed off a group of school children begging for a Green New Deal and who earned praise from Ben Shaprio for so doing? The Democrats have accepted money from the same fossil fuel lobbyists as the Republicans, so they may have a bit of renewable energy in their platform, they still will continue the fossil fuel economy. Remember also that it was under Obama's watch that conflict with Native Americans in North Dakota and security forces over the pipeline reached a head.

JKR wrote:
The Democrats are offering to reduce student loan debt.

Which ones, and where? Repbulican Congressmen and Senators have also advocated debt relief in certain ways.

JKR wrote:
The Democrats are offering to establish election campaign spending reforms that put greater limits on political contributions.

Which ones?

JKR wrote:
The Democrats are offering not to cut social programs like the Republicans have and continue to plan to.

Democrats have also proposed means-tested benefits for people, while Mitt Romney has also advocated direct cash payments to all Americans.

JKR wrote:
Unlike Trump the Democrats are offering to unite people instead of hating people.

What does this plattitude mean? People want to see how practical realities play out in their daily lives. That is also tone-deaf to human nature. It's not uncommon for people who are generous with their time and money in helping people within their own communities to also think we are taking in too many refugees that we have to take care of. Also look at how countries have reacted around the world by closing borders. When Trudeau announced his inital border closures, he took a great deal of flack for not also barring Americans from entering. With this triablistic human instinct, Trump can very easliy promise to protect Americans by scapegoating outside agents, and that is a psychological trick that happens to work. I'm not defending any of this, but I always maintain that you cannot defeat what you cannot understand. Repeating the same liberal talking points that we have been since the Democrats have been losing Presidential elections in 2000, 2004, and 2016 will not advance anything.

I hope the Democrats come out with a leftish election platform. I think once they come out with their electric platform it will be easier comparing them to Trump and the Republicans. This pandemic and deep recession has thrown the whole world upside down so who knows what will happen between now and November. The next few weeks alone could bring about huge unpredictable changes. I think Covid-19 has been the biggest demonstration since 1929 of why we need much more socialism in the world. I can't see the Republicans playing any role in bringing that about. I hope the Democrats can at least move their country in that direction but I may be wrong which seems ludicrous after COVID-19 has exposed so many flaws in our political and economic systems. Healthcare for all should be a utterly complete no-brainer now. Everyone in the U.S. should clearly see now why every American should be able to be covered by Medicare for free if they choose it. I think Biden will support giving Americans the choice of being covered by Medicare if they choose so while also giving other Americans the choice of keeping their private health insurance if they want. I don't see the Republicans supporting any public health care at all. 

NorthReport

It now appears that we are going to have to implement a public funded universal health care system for humankind otherwise we could become extinct as a species

Aristotleded24

JKR wrote:
I hope the Democrats come out with a leftish election platform.

Actually now is a great time for political parties to come out with platforms. Spring gardening season is upon us, so we are going to need some fertilizer.

In all seriousness, you "hope?" Has anything actually happened to indicate that they will do so?

JKR wrote:
I think Covid-19 has been the biggest demonstration since 1929 of why we need much more socialism in the world.

It could also spike a rise of nationalism. I mentioned upthread that Trudeau was criticized for initially not restricting Americans from entering Canada. Or for a more recent example, take a look at almost any MSM story about Trudeau saying he was going to turn back asylum seekers who don't go through border checkpoints. Many of the commenters are suggesting he is 3 years too late to the party.

And the political trends went towards fascism in Germany and Italy post-1929. They would have also gone that direction in the US had the planned coup against Roosevelt not been exposed by a high-ranking General who knew what war was about.

JKR wrote:
Healthcare for all should be a utterly complete no-brainer now.

I don't know if Medicare for All has lost a single exit poll in any of the statest that have held their prmiaries, but it looks right now like voters have overwhemlingly rejected the Presidential candidate who is running on that platform.

JKR wrote:
I think Biden will support giving Americans the choice of being covered by Medicare for choose so while also giving other Americans the choice to keeping their private health insurance. I may be wrong though.

Let's just put aside that you "think" Biden will support this idea, even though he previously said he would consider cutting Medicare and you have offered no evidence to suggest he would support that idea. Look at how this scenario would play out. The insurance companies would offer cheap, attractive packages to healthy people easy to insure who could afford it. Those harder to insure would be dumped onto the public system. The public system would then be under strain, thus allowing the Republicans to use the talking point about how government always messes things up.

JKR

I agree that single payer is preferable but I don't think there are 60 votes in the Senate to pass it even if Sanders were president. 

NorthReport

Donald Trump starts 2020 in the worst polling position since Harry Truman

https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/21/politics/trump-vs-biden-poll-of-the-week/index.html

kropotkin1951

All Trump has to do is convince the same people who voted for him last time that they should vote for him again. He is going to get re-elected by being a racist asshole. Doubling down on "Chinese" flu plays really well to his people. His move to buy the German company was classic reality TV and his base lapped it up. That is why they voted for him, to make America the boss again. Then the icing on the cake is he will start sending them checks before November. He doesn't have to flip votes only hold on to the nasty racist xenophobic nationalists that got him elected in the first place. My money is on him retaining his vote. So the only question for me is whether the Democrats are going to get more people to vote for them this election than they did when Hilary ran. I think the answer appears self evident.

Pondering

There will always be diehard Trump supporters but when something bad happens that people believe could have been averted they usually blame the incumbant no matter what he says or even no matter what the truth is. 

The democratic states acted first. The Republican's have no choice but to copy them. Blue states are more urban so the virus has spread fastest there but Republicans in Red states have been listening to Trump. All their experts are saying we have to keep the economy going and minimizing the risks. There is the potential those states will be decimated even worse because they are business as usual. How well will Republican states fair against Democratic states? It will matter.

 

 

JKR

kropotkin1951 wrote:

All Trump has to do is convince the same people who voted for him last time that they should vote for him again. He is going to get re-elected by being a racist asshole. Doubling down on "Chinese" flu plays really well to his people. His move to buy the German company was classic reality TV and his base lapped it up. That is why they voted for him, to make America the boss again. Then the icing on the cake is he will start sending them checks before November. He doesn't have to flip votes only hold on to the nasty racist xenophobic nationalists that got him elected in the first place. My money is on him retaining his vote. So the only question for me is whether the Democrats are going to get more people to vote for them this election than they did when Hilary ran. I think the answer appears self evident.

I think and hope to God that you are completely wrong. After the last few months the re-election of Donald Trump would be insane. The US is headed for a horrible pandemic and an economic depression. I think Trump will go down as the worst president in US history. The world needed to and still needs to come together to deal with the Covid-19 crisis. Trump has made that almost impossible.

Pondering

I think he is wrong. How do you think the American health care system will work in comparison to Canada's? How about other social services? Will they be housing the homeless in repurposed buildings like Montreal is doing with the Royal Vic? 

The differences, or lack thereof, between countries will be stark so it depends on whether or not you think Canada's responses will lead to significantly different outcomes. 

Aristotleded24

I maintain that you cannot defeat what you cannot understand, and I think that krop has demonstrated a great understanding of the political dynamic in the United States right now. As for Democrat and Republican states acting differently? That's not unversal. The Republican governor of Ohio has also enacted restrictions, and Ted Cruz retweeted a tweet from AOC begging people to stay home. It's not really going to change much anyways, as the Democrat states will vote Democrat and the Republican states vote Republican. With such vastly different responses from the individual states, I think individual governors are going to be graded by the public of their handling on a case-by-case basis rather than the Democrats or Republicans nationwide being graded. Even if the Red States are decimated worse, it was states like New York and Washington State that were hit first. That's the perfect fodder for the Trump crowd to blame the states that advocate "open borders," or to scapegoat undocumented immigrants. No matter how bad things get, the Republicans are adept at finding scapegoats. And as Biden said he would veto Medicare for All, not only does that public policy move not make any improvement to the system, but will not inspire the turnout that the Democrats need.

If you want to see how things have shifted, take Secular Talk host Kyle Kulinski. In 2016, he said that he would vote for Hillary in a swing state but voted Green living in the safe state of New York. This time, he would not vote for Biden regardless. I know he's just one person, but if that is representative of wider thinking, the Democrats are in trouble.

kropotkin1951

JKR wrote:

kropotkin1951 wrote:

All Trump has to do is convince the same people who voted for him last time that they should vote for him again. He is going to get re-elected by being a racist asshole. Doubling down on "Chinese" flu plays really well to his people. His move to buy the German company was classic reality TV and his base lapped it up. That is why they voted for him, to make America the boss again. Then the icing on the cake is he will start sending them checks before November. He doesn't have to flip votes only hold on to the nasty racist xenophobic nationalists that got him elected in the first place. My money is on him retaining his vote. So the only question for me is whether the Democrats are going to get more people to vote for them this election than they did when Hilary ran. I think the answer appears self evident.

I think and hope to God that you are completely wrong. After the last few months the re-election of Donald Trump would be insane. The US is headed for a horrible pandemic and an economic depression. I think Trump will go down as the worst president in US history. The world needed to and still needs to come together to deal with the Covid-19 crisis. Trump has made that almost impossible.

I agree with everything you wrote. It is not cheering for your enemy to understand how it is they can succeed. In BC I know that nearly 50% of the voters will again vote for the BC Liberals despite objective proof they were corrupt to the core and incompetent with the public finances. That is how right wing voters act all over the world no matter how fucking bad the governments they elect perform.

Pondering

Nothing like this has ever happened in modern times so this is all speculation not prediction. People are people no matter their political persuation. Republicans want to live too and in live and death matters they want results not ideology.

As someone pointed out, Biden apparently doesn't support medicare for all. Doesn't matter who is republican and who is democrat. They will all want help. In truth this is the fault of both the Republicans and the Democrats and people will want solutions not excuses.

Issues off the top of my head

Manufacturing. The US can't get masks and medicines because they don't manufacture them anymore. Promises to bring back manufacturing aren't going to be enough. Some will have to come back as a matter of real national security.

Climate change.  I can see smoke from chimneys that I haven't noticed before. The skies seem bluer to the naked eye. Air and water quality is getting a massive break. It's going to renew the push for greening in a big way as people experience a hint of what serious reduction would do. 

Economic Hardship. This is going to be like the Great Depression only Americans are far more demanding of a good life and very unaccustomed to being uncomfortable. 

Republicans have stoked anger and resentment to serve themselves which produced Trump. This will rachet it up 10 fold. Unhappy Americans with guns are not a good mix. They are proud of their revolution and prepared to have another if the elite are percieved as the British were when they were still in charge. 

Right now everyone is still processing. We haven't even begun to really feel the financial impact. Most people can last a few weeks or a month even if they can't pay their rent. The kids have only been home for weeks not months. Everyone is worried but hopeful that things will soon get back to normal if we just practice social distancing for a few more weeks and old people continuing isolating themselves or die. Then everyone will go back to work and school and all will be pretty much as it was before. I could be wrong but I don't see that trajectory at all. The school year is over. People will be working from home for months.  My sister's company first stated they were going to have a "practice" week of working from home as a dry run so if people could work from home they should starting money but they could still come in. The next day they said it wasn't a dry run anymore. That it was the plan for the foreseeable future. The next day, Thursday afternoon, they told everyone to go home indefinitely. My sister was allowed back in the building on Monday to get her workstation and dock. Everyone has been warned not to enter the building for any reason if they feel at all ill or have any known exposure. It's just been a week. She hasn't had a chance to think much less react to it all. People with families have been even more busy than her. 

Tourism is decimated and if there is any recovery by summer it will be light. Retail will be hit hard. Montreal is not alone in being dependent on a roaring season of fesivals with tourists filling the hotels, restaurants, bars and movie theatres among other attractions and shopping all over downtown and the Plateau. Gas stations will be hurting. I can't even imagine what this will do nation wide, continent wide, world wide. 

People are sinking their money into American dollars which is strange but also acknowledgement that the US is the largest consumer in the world. It cannot fail. Right now I think the richest of the rich aren't sure what they will do to preserve their wealth but they know capitalism must not fall and to survive it needs consumers to push demand and workers to fulfil that demand. Someone has to be using the oil even if it is much less than before. No country is being spared.

The economy of the world is in a meltdown. There will be no just picking up where we left off. This is shock and awe on neoliberalism.

Amazon has begun limiting shipments to essentials. I'm glad I picked up my printer ink and soil on Thursday because those are probably going to become less available. Everything from hardware stores to car parts will be affected. 

It's not going to be business as usual in two weeks or two months no matter what industry someone is associated with. Car sales, construction, electronics, tech, all will be impacted. 

People will be dying because of rescheduled cancer surgery and other surgeries. They may even die because doctors are exhausted. 

This changes, or will change, everything. I'm sure I can't imagine all the fallout that is coming because it is all so unprecedented. What happened after the black plague?

So who will be president? Maybe Bernie Sanders, or maybe his platform will have to be adopted.