2020 USA presidential election

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Michael Moriarity Michael Moriarity's picture

Aristotleded24 wrote:

Sanders is misreading the situation. Many of his supporters are frustrated with him for treating Biden with kid gloves during the campaign, for endorsing Biden and calling Biden his friend, and for his votes on the bad coronavirus bailouts. Many of his supporters have already moved on from Sanders and are planning their next moves. Support for Sanders was always conditional on him pushing ideas his supporters cared about. When he started stumping for Clinton and then Tom Perez, his support dropped. The same thing is happening now. If he were to run for the Democraticy Party nominatino for the third time, he won't have nearly the popular support he had the first 2 for that reason.

I'm sure this does describe some part of Sanders' supporters. For example, YouTuber Kyle Kulinski takes approximately this position. My question is how many of former Sanders supporters will take this hard line?

I think that over half of them are regular Democratic party voters who wanted progressive policies, but will fairly happily vote for any Democratic candidate. There's also another pretty large bunch who feel sad and somewhat betrayed, but will eventually follow Chomsky's advice and vote to defeat Trump.

In my opinion, the hard rejectionists could be anywhere from 5% to 20% of Sanders supporters, and the exact proportion will be crucial in determining the result next November.

NorthReport

Swing-state Republicans warn Trump's reelection is on shaky ground

Attacking Joe Biden will only get the president so far, they say: Ultimately, the election will be a referendum on him.

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/05/18/swing-state-republicans-trump-pandemic-261955

epaulo13 epaulo13's picture

..my main purpose for posting the sanders piece was the point that biden may be reaching out. if and i say if he, seriously, reaches out lets see what he offers up.

..i personally do not believe that getting rid of trump is enough for the democrats to win. they have to offer up something substantial..a reason for people to fight against the skulduggery that the republicans will be dredging up re the election. voter suppression, in person voting, racism, far right vigilante attacks to name a few but so much more as well. 

..more of the same..but not as bad as trump..just won't cut it. imo. 

NorthReport
NorthReport

Are These Scandals Going To Hurt Republican Chances Of Holding On To The Senate?

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/are-these-scandals-going-to-hurt-republican-chances-of-holding-on-to-the-senate/

Michael Moriarity Michael Moriarity's picture

epaulo13 wrote:

..my main purpose for posting the sanders piece was the point that biden may be reaching out. if and i say if he, seriously, reaches out lets see what he offers up.

..i personally do not believe that getting rid of trump is enough for the democrats to win. they have to offer up something substantial..a reason for people to fight against the skulduggery that the republicans will be dredging up re the election. voter suppression, in person voting, racism, far right vigilante attacks to name a few but so much more as well. 

..more of the same..but not as bad as trump..just won't cut it. imo. 

I agree with you that Biden will have a significantly better chance of  winning if his campaign seriously reaches out to the left by offering some actual policies they like. That is what will determine the proportion of Sanders supporters who feel they absolutely cannot vote for Biden. I still think Trump is unpopular enough that Biden could possibly win without doing anything else, because a potted plant would be preferable to Trump for a majority of voters.

epaulo13 epaulo13's picture

..popular shmopular. lets remember. lets look at power.

The Great Hack | Official Trailer | Netflix

epaulo13 epaulo13's picture

..here's the full lenght version

The Great Hack 2019

 

epaulo13 epaulo13's picture

..and here one you posted mm. this is why more is needed than trump. 

Why Labour Lost: Oligarchs are Gaming Democracy

epaulo13 epaulo13's picture

Facebook Is a Crime Scene: “The Great Hack” Documentary Details Big Data’s Threat to Democracy

As new details emerge about how the shadowy data firm Cambridge Analytica worked to manipulate voters across the globe, we continue our look at the documentary, “The Great Hack.” We speak to Cambridge Analytica whistleblower Brittany Kaiser, the film’s co-directors Jehane Noujaim and Karim Amer, and the propaganda researcher Emma Briant.

epaulo13 epaulo13's picture
NorthReport
epaulo13 epaulo13's picture

epaulo13 wrote:

Facebook Is a Crime Scene: “The Great Hack” Documentary Details Big Data’s Threat to Democracy

As new details emerge about how the shadowy data firm Cambridge Analytica worked to manipulate voters across the globe, we continue our look at the documentary, “The Great Hack.” We speak to Cambridge Analytica whistleblower Brittany Kaiser, the film’s co-directors Jehane Noujaim and Karim Amer, and the propaganda researcher Emma Briant.

quote:

AMY GOODMAN: Karim Amer and Jehane Noujaim, I was wondering if you can talk about — Brittany sparked this when she talked about voter suppression — Trinidad and Tobago, which you go into in your film, because ultimately the elections there were about voter suppression and trying to get whole populations not to vote.

KARIM AMER: Yeah, I think it was important for us to show in the film the expansiveness of Cambridge’s work. This went beyond the borders of the United States and even beyond the borders of the EU and the U.K. Because what we find is that Cambridge used the — in pursuing this global influence industry that they were very much a part of, they used different countries as Petri dishes to learn and get the know-how about different tactics. And from improving those tactics, they could then sell them for a higher cost — higher margin in Western democracies, where the election budgets are, you know — we have to remember, I think it’s important to predicate that the election business has become a multibillion-dollar global business, right? So, we have to remember that while we are upset with companies like Cambridge, we allowed for the commoditization of our democratic process, right? So, people are exploiting this now because it’s become a business. And we, as purveyors of this, can’t really be as upset as we want to be, when we’ve justified that. So I want to preface it with that.

Now, that being said, what’s happened as a result is a company like Cambridge can practice tactics in a place like Trinidad, that’s very unregulated in terms of what they can and can’t do, learn from that know-how and then, you know, use it — parlay it into activities in the United States. What they did in Trinidad, and why it was important for us to show it in the film, is they led something called the “Do So” campaign, where they admit to making it cool and popular among youth to get out and not vote. And they knew —

AMY GOODMAN: So, you had the Indian population and the black population.

KARIM AMER: And the black population. And there is a lot of historic tension between those two, and a lot of generational differences, as well, between those two. And the “Do So” campaign targeted — was was done in a way to, you know, by looking at the data and looking at the predictive analysis of which group would vote or not vote, get enough people to dissuade them from voting, so that they could flip the election.

KARIM AMER: Exactly. And you look at the level of calculation behind this, and it’s quite frightening. Now, as Emma was saying, a lot of these tactics were born out of our own fears in the United States and the U.K. post-9/11, when we allowed for this massive weaponization of influence campaigns to begin. You know, if you remember President Bush talking about, you know, the battle for the hearts and minds of the Iraqi people, all of these kinds of industries were born out of this.

And now I believe what we’re seeing is the hens have come home to roost, right? All of these tactics that we developed in the name of, quote-unquote, “fighting the war on terror,” in the name of doing these things, have now been commercialized and used to come back to the biggest election market in the world, the United States. And how do we blame people for doing that, when we’ve allowed for our democracy to be for sale?

And that’s what Brittany’s files today, that she’s releasing and has released over the last couple days, really give us insight to. The Hindsight Files that Brittany has released show us how there is an auction happening for influence campaigns in every democracy around the world. There is no vote that is unprotected in the current way that we — in the current space that we’re living.

And the thing that’s allowing this to happen is these information platforms like Facebook. And that is what’s so upsetting, because we can actually do something about that. We are the only country in the world that can hold Facebook accountable, yet we still have not done so. And we still keep going to their leadership hoping they do the right thing, but they have not. And why is that? Because no industry has ever shown in American history that it can regulate itself. There is a reason why antitrust laws exist in this country. There’s a tradition of holding companies accountable, and we need to re-embrace that tradition, especially as we enter into 2020, where the stakes could not be higher.

NDPP

Canadian Oil is Now A US Election Issue

https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/kxl-issue-election-1.5574913

"Biden's promise to cancel Keystone XL raises election stakes for long-delayed oil project..."

Mobo2000

Thanks Contrianna and Cody for replies above, you've given me lots to think about, I may have more to say later.   Big ups for the Fugs link, that was hilarious.

epaulo13 epaulo13's picture

..scl is the parent company of cambridge analytica.

..post #260 offeres a response to this weaponization of information. 

The Weaponization of Data: Cambridge Analytica, Information Warfare & the 2016 Election of Trump

quote:

EMMA BRIANT: Yeah. And SCL’s major shareholder, Vincent Tchenguiz, of course, was involved in the early establishment of the company Black Cube and in some of its early funding, I believe. I don’t know how long they stayed in any kind of relationship with that firm. However, the firm Black Cube were also targeting Obama administration officials with a massive smear campaign, as has been revealed in the media. And, you know, this opposition to the Iran deal and the promotion of these kinds of, you know, really fearmongering advertising that Brittany is talking about is very disturbing, when this same company is also driving, you know, advertising for gun sales and things like that.

AMY GOODMAN: Wait. Explain what Black Cube is, which goes right to today’s headlines —

EMMA BRIANT: Exactly.

AMY GOODMAN: — because Harvey Weinstein, accused of raping I don’t know how many women at last count, also employed Black Cube, former Israeli intelligence folks, to go after —

EMMA BRIANT: Yes.

AMY GOODMAN: — the women who were accusing him, and even to try to deceive the reporters, like at The New York Times, to try to get them to write false stories.

EMMA BRIANT: Absolutely. I mean, this is an intelligence firm that was born, again, out of the “war on terror.” So, Israel’s war on terror, this time, produced an awful lot of people who had gone through conscription and developed really, you know, strong expertise in cyberoperations or on developing information warfare technologies, in general, intelligence gathering techniques. And Black Cube was formed by people who came out of the Israeli intelligence industries. And they all formed these companies, and this has become a huge industry, which is not really being properly regulated, as well, and properly governed, and seems to be rather out of control. And they have been also linked to Cambridge Analytica in the evidence to Parliament. So, I think the involvement of all of these companies is really disturbing, as well, in relation to the Iran deal.

We don’t know that Cambridge Analytica in any way were working with Black Cube in this, at this point in time. However, the fact is that all of this infrastructure has been created, which is not being properly tackled. And how they’re able to operate without anybody really understanding what’s going on is a major, major problem.

AMY GOODMAN: Brittany?

BRITTANY KAISER: Black Cube isn’t the only company you should be concerned about. The founder of Blackwater, or their CEO, Erik Prince, was also an investor in Cambridge Analytica. So he profits from arm sales around the world, and military contracts, and has been accused of causing the unnecessary death of civilians in very many different wartime situations. He was one of the investors in Cambridge Analytica and their new company, Emerdata. And so, I should be very concerned, and everyone should be very concerned, about the weaponization of our data by people that are actually experts in selling weapons. So, that’s one thing that I think needs to be in the public discussion, the difference between what is military, what is civilian, and how those things can be used for different purposes or not.

KARIM AMER: And I think what’s important to see —

AMY GOODMAN: Karim.

KARIM AMER: — is that, you know, in the clip you showed, Chris Wylie is talking about how Cambridge is a full-service propaganda machine. What does that really mean? You know, I would say that what’s happening is we’re getting insight to the the network of the influence industry, the buying and selling of information and of people’s behavioral change. And it is a completely unregulated space.

And what’s very worrisome is that, as we’re seeing more and more, with what Emma’s talking about and what Brittany has shown, is this conveyor belt of military-grade information and research and expertise coming out of our defense work, that’s being paid for by our tax money, then going into the private sector and selling it to the highest bidder, with different special interests from around the world. So what you see in the files is, you know, a oil company buying influence campaign in a country that it’s not from and having no — you know, no responsibility or anything to what it’s doing there. And what happens in that, the results of that research, where it gets handed over to, no one knows. Any contracts that then result in the change that happens on the political ground, no one tracks and sees.

So, this is what we’re very concerned about, is because you’re seeing that everything has become for sale. And if everything is for sale —

JEHANE NOUJAIM: Our elections are for sale.

KARIM AMER: Exactly. And so, how do we have any kind of integrity to the vote, when we’re living in such a condition?

NorthReport

Will Donald Trump end up in prison? He could be a step closer …

 

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/may/19/will-donald-trump-end-up-in-prison-arwa-mahdawi

NorthReport

FiveThirtyEight’s Pollster Ratings

Based on the historical accuracy and methodology of each firm’s polls.

 

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/pollster-ratings/

epaulo13 epaulo13's picture

..since the early 70' i've been voting lesser of the evils. except for the elections that i wanted to make a point. the lesser represented maybe 85% of my voting. i don't oppose it. but something has changed.

..it was the corbyn election that made me finally understand what i am posting about in this thread. people rejected the labour manifesto! how could this be? for starters brexit was a manufactured issue by the right. and cambridge analytica was involved with the initial vote. they proved to be effective. when the reality was the remedy for the eu powers was the manifesto. 

..in the us the democrats don't have anything near the manifesto. and biden is such an easy target on so many levels. i'm hoping this thread begins to start looking beyond the lesser evil position.  

Michael Moriarity Michael Moriarity's picture

epaulo13 wrote:

..in the us the democrats don't have anything near the manifesto. and biden is such an easy target on so many levels. i'm hoping this thread begins to start looking beyond the lesser evil position.  

In all seriousness, I don't know what you mean by this. The only alternatives I can see are boycotting the election, and voting for a third party candidate, and I don't see how either of these is better than voting for the lesser evil.

Chomsky suggests that we vote for the lesser evil, but not take the whole business of elections too seriously. In his view, the bulk of our energies should go to organizing outside the electoral system. Regarding this election in particular, he says that a Biden administration will be much more likely to respond to pressure from the movement Sanders founded as well as other left popular movements than a second Trump administration would.

Aristotleded24

epaulo13 wrote:
..it was the corbyn election that made me finally understand what i am posting about in this thread. people rejected the labour manifesto! how could this be? for starters brexit was a manufactured issue by the right. and cambridge analytica was involved with the initial vote. they proved to be effective. when the reality was the remedy for the eu powers was the manifesto.

The manifesto itself was actually popular. The problem with that campaign was that the Tories had bungled Brexit under 2 leaders who tried to go through the motions but were at heart comitted Remainers. Boris Johnson was committed to Brexit, and there was a great deal of frustration in the country over the thwarting of a democratically held vote on whether to stay or leave. Labour had an incoherent position after Corbyn had been arm-twisted into holding a second referendum. Had Labour committed to respecting the result of the referendum and trying to get the best deal, Brexit would not have hung over that campaign like it did.

The other problem with the Manifesto is that even if people like it, they generally don't believe big promises politicians make. That's where Johnson capitalized on the desire to get Brexit done.

Aristotleded24

Michael Moriarity wrote:
Chomsky suggests that we vote for the lesser evil, but not take the whole business of elections too seriously. In his view, the bulk of our energies should go to organizing outside the electoral system. Regarding this election in particular, he says that a Biden administration will be much more likely to respond to pressure from the movement Sanders founded as well as other left popular movements than a second Trump administration would.

I disagree. We thought the same thing would happen under Obama. Unfortunately the left was so caught up in defending Obama from the racist craziness of the far-right that it had no energy left to seriously advocate for a program. Plus, if Biden knows that the left is going to vote for him no matter what, why should he do anything they ask? If you're not willing to walk away from the Democratic Party, you have no sway or leverage over them.

NorthReport

I tend to agree with Chomsky. 

Elections are basically run by the rich, for the rich, to protect the rich, to keep the rich, rich, and the poor, poor. Cambridge Analytica, Black Cube, etc. as epaula13 referred to above, says it all, and realistically, progressive forces are just no match whatsoever, for these kind of undemocratic tactics. Once in awhile, almost by fluke, progressive forces get elected, but it is always a huge exception rather than the rule, and Canada is a perfect example.

 

NDPP

'Trump Rolled Over For the Chinese' : Biden for President

https://youtu.be/PmieUrXwKCc

 

Watching liberals trying to feign enthusiasm about Biden is like watching a gay Republican trying to get an erection for his wife. 'Ooh yeah, I'm totally into this! This is so hot to me, yeah!' It will never stop being fall-to-the-floor laughing hilarious that the US has an evil idiot president who can't form a coherent sentence and exacerbated a deadly pandemic, and the only answer has been a fake Russia scandal, a fake impeachment and a candidate with holes in his brain..."

https://twitter.com/caitoz/status/1262743106165727234

 

'Shine, perishing republic.'

epaulo13 epaulo13's picture

Michael Moriarity wrote:

epaulo13 wrote:

..in the us the democrats don't have anything near the manifesto. and biden is such an easy target on so many levels. i'm hoping this thread begins to start looking beyond the lesser evil position.  

In all seriousness, I don't know what you mean by this. The only alternatives I can see are boycotting the election, and voting for a third party candidate, and I don't see how either of these is better than voting for the lesser evil.

Chomsky suggests that we vote for the lesser evil, but not take the whole business of elections too seriously. In his view, the bulk of our energies should go to organizing outside the electoral system. Regarding this election in particular, he says that a Biden administration will be much more likely to respond to pressure from the movement Sanders founded as well as other left popular movements than a second Trump administration would.

..monbiot's piece talks about how we can do this. where we can start. and since there are already struggles on the ground..were we can join in or fit in. we do not have to start from scratch. i don't say don't vote democrat but don't rely on them. which is what is happening. even under bernie.

Why Labour Lost: Oligarchs are Gaming Democracy

..in the same thread you posted that monbiot piece in Here are more alternative approaches. here was my last post there.

..monbiot's antidote can take many forms

Municipalist Syndicalism: From the Workplace to the Community

epaulo13 epaulo13's picture

..here we are on babble talking about the umpteenth election and still focusing/debating the lesser evil instead of alternatives. we are stuck. this is not progress. we are not learning.  

epaulo13 epaulo13's picture

Aristotleded24 wrote:

epaulo13 wrote:
..it was the corbyn election that made me finally understand what i am posting about in this thread. people rejected the labour manifesto! how could this be? for starters brexit was a manufactured issue by the right. and cambridge analytica was involved with the initial vote. they proved to be effective. when the reality was the remedy for the eu powers was the manifesto.

The manifesto itself was actually popular. The problem with that campaign was that the Tories had bungled Brexit under 2 leaders who tried to go through the motions but were at heart comitted Remainers. Boris Johnson was committed to Brexit, and there was a great deal of frustration in the country over the thwarting of a democratically held vote on whether to stay or leave. Labour had an incoherent position after Corbyn had been arm-twisted into holding a second referendum. Had Labour committed to respecting the result of the referendum and trying to get the best deal, Brexit would not have hung over that campaign like it did.

The other problem with the Manifesto is that even if people like it, they generally don't believe big promises politicians make. That's where Johnson capitalized on the desire to get Brexit done.

..the point is that even with the most progressive platform that i've ever witnessed in my long life it was defeated. nothing else should have mattered but through manipulation plus, as i've described above, the right did it.  

Misfit Misfit's picture

Obama is out campaigning for the Democrats and slamming Trump. Where is Biden?

NDPP

Biden: Criticism of Israel is Not Anti-Semitism Unless it Comes From the Left

https://twitter.com/MintPressNews/status/1263139665156222978

"Special Report: Presidential nominee Joe Biden affirmed his 'unshakeable' commitment to Israel during an online fundraiser by former US ambassador to Israel Dan Shapiro. 'My commitment to Israel is absolutely unshakeable,' he assured his prospective donors..."

'But China/Russia!'

 

josh

Misfit wrote:

Obama is out campaigning for the Democrats and slamming Trump. Where is Biden?

He's not out campaigning.

josh

NDPP wrote:

Biden: Criticism of Israel is Not Anti-Semitism Unless it Comes From the Left

https://twitter.com/MintPressNews/status/1263139665156222978

"Special Report: Presidential nominee Joe Biden affirmed his 'unshakeable' commitment to Israel during an online fundraiser by former US ambassador to Israel Dan Shapiro. 'My commitment to Israel is absolutely unshakeable,' he assured his prospective donors..."

'But China/Russia!'

 

He's certainly no bargain on the issue.  But unlike Trump, Israel would not be poised to formally annex 30% of the West Bank, the embassy would not have been moved to Jerusalem without getting something in return, and the education and justice departments would not be going around trying to enforce Zionist Political Correctness.

josh

NDPP wrote:

Biden: Criticism of Israel is Not Anti-Semitism Unless it Comes From the Left

https://twitter.com/MintPressNews/status/1263139665156222978

"Special Report: Presidential nominee Joe Biden affirmed his 'unshakeable' commitment to Israel during an online fundraiser by former US ambassador to Israel Dan Shapiro. 'My commitment to Israel is absolutely unshakeable,' he assured his prospective donors..."

'But China/Russia!'

 

He's certainly no bargain on the issue.  But unlike Trump, Israel would not be poised to formally annex 30% of the West Bank, the embassy would not have been moved to Jerusalem without getting something in return, and the education and justice departments would not be going around trying to enforce Zionist Political Correctness.

Misfit Misfit's picture

No, technically he is not out campaigning but he is visible. Where is Biden?

josh

Misfit wrote:

No, technically he is not out campaigning but he is visible. Where is Biden?

Biden is doing video chats online several times a week.  The election is a referendum on Trump.  He should do his best to keep it that way.  

NorthReport

Trump will lose in a landslide because of the economy, new election model predicts

https://www.cnn.com/2020/05/20/business/economy-election-trump-biden-jobs/index.html

NorthReport

Biden’s Lead Grows Slightly As Trump’s Approval Crashes In Polls

A new Quinnipiac poll showed former Vice President Joe Biden’s lead over President Trump growing several points since April, following polls from the Economist and Morning Consult showing more modest upticks in recent weeks.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/andrewsolender/2020/05/20/bidens-lead-grows-slightly-as-trumps-approval-crashes-in-polls/#38a207502c9e

josh

NorthReport wrote:

Trump will lose in a landslide because of the economy, new election model predicts

https://www.cnn.com/2020/05/20/business/economy-election-trump-biden-jobs/index.html

He's not going to lose by that much.  40-45% of the voters will stick with him no matter what.  Extreme polarization 

Aristotleded24

josh wrote:
Misfit wrote:

No, technically he is not out campaigning but he is visible. Where is Biden?

Biden is doing video chats online several times a week.

These events are ridden with technical glitches, and even under tight scripting Biden's verbal gaffes are still showing through.

Michael Moriarity Michael Moriarity's picture

josh wrote:

NorthReport wrote:

Trump will lose in a landslide because of the economy, new election model predicts

https://www.cnn.com/2020/05/20/business/economy-election-trump-biden-jobs/index.html

He's not going to lose by that much.  40-45% of the voters will stick with him no matter what.  Extreme polarization 

I agree. Trump could lose the electoral college big time, but he won't get under 40% of the vote. Also, models like this are only valid (if they are valid at all, which I doubt) for "normal" elections, not one of a kind situations like the present craziness.

NorthReport

At some point, when they discover following Trump and his cronies ends up with their lives in ruins, some people will say 'Uncle'

The Four Men Responsible For America’s COVID-19 Test Disaster

The White House’s inability to track the disease as it spread across the nation crippled the government’s response and led to the worst disaster this country has faced in nearly a century

 

https://www.rollingstone.com/politics/politics-features/covid-19-test-trump-admin-failed-disaster-995930/

NorthReport

How Bill Barr Deceitfully Rewrites History to Give Trump What He Craves

The AG plays footsie with “Obamagate” and helps Moscow.

https://www.motherjones.com/politics/2020/05/how-bill-barr-deceitfully-rewrites-history-to-give-trump-what-he-craves/

NorthReport

“THE THEORY IS SHE WOULD HELP HIM IN THE MIDWEST”: KLOBUCHAR IS NOW A STRONG DARK HORSE IN THE BIDEN VEEPSTAKES

https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2020/05/klobuchar-is-now-a-strong-dark-horse-in-the-biden-veepstakes

epaulo13 epaulo13's picture

Trump Threatens to Cut Funding to Michigan, Nevada over Mail-in Voting

President Trump is intensifying his attack on mail-in voting by threatening to cut funding to the swing states of Michigan and Nevada, where officials are attempting to make it easier for residents to vote by absentee ballot due to the pandemic. In a series of tweets, Trump accused the states of acting illegally and promoting voter fraud.

Trump’s tweets came a day after Michigan Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson tweeted, “No voter should have to choose between their health & their vote. And every Michigan citizen has a right under our state constitution to vote by mail. With funding from the federal CARES act, I am ensuring every registered voter has the tools to conveniently exercise that right.”

Public support of mail-in voting is high across the U.S. One recent poll showed three-quarters of Americans support universal access to mail voting.

NorthReport

If it looks like he is going to lose the election, we can count on Trump somehow trying to cancel it.

NorthReport

The religious roots of Trump's magical thinking on coronavirus

 

https://www.cnn.com/2020/05/21/politics/trump-magical-thinking-peale-coronavirus/index.html

Cody87

Klobuchar is the only plausible VP pick that could help Biden beat Trump. Every other VP pick is horribly flawed, except Kamala Harris, who will garner more opposition and less support than Klobuchar.

Also, I think the Trumpers will not be able to resist "Karen" slurs about Klobuchar, which will fare poorly among the important suburban white women vote.

Note that this evaluation is not based on Klobuchar or anyone else's policies. Those aren't relevant to the electoral math.

josh

Cody87 wrote:

Klobuchar is the only plausible VP pick that could help Biden beat Trump. Every other VP pick is horribly flawed, except Kamala Harris, who will garner more opposition and less support than Klobuchar.

Also, I think the Trumpers will not be able to resist "Karen" slurs about Klobuchar, which will fare poorly among the important suburban white women vote.

Note that this evaluation is not based on Klobuchar or anyone else's policies. Those aren't relevant to the electoral math.

The way Biden wins is by upping the black turnout which dropped from 65% in 2012 to 59% in 2016.  That's why Clinton lost states like Michigan and Pennsylvania.  I think Harris the likely choice, but also keep an eye on Florida congresswoman Val Demings.

NorthReport

Nate Silver, probably America's most accurate political analyst, had suggested, based on some close state electoral college results in 2016, that Klobuchar perhaps had the best chance of defeating Trump.  As much as it would be preferable to have a Sanders, or a Warren President, in America today, they were not going to be able to defeat Trump, and that is the overriding factor for me.

How big a factor is a VP candidate in terms of votes for President. In the scheme of things, it can't be that much, but every bit helps. If Biden does choose a female running mate, hopefully enough women will rise up to defeat the incumbent. Maybe the age factor could also help the Democrats, because if something were to happen to an elected President Biden, the contrast between the old guys Trump and Pence, who appear to be so old, that they don't even know how to put on a mask, and a younger woman, could help the Democtats.

Cody87

josh wrote:

Cody87 wrote:

Klobuchar is the only plausible VP pick that could help Biden beat Trump. Every other VP pick is horribly flawed, except Kamala Harris, who will garner more opposition and less support than Klobuchar.

Also, I think the Trumpers will not be able to resist "Karen" slurs about Klobuchar, which will fare poorly among the important suburban white women vote.

Note that this evaluation is not based on Klobuchar or anyone else's policies. Those aren't relevant to the electoral math.

The way Biden wins is by upping the black turnout which dropped from 65% in 2012 to 59% in 2016.  That's why Clinton lost states like Michigan and Pennsylvania.  I think Harris the likely choice, but also keep an eye on Florida congresswoman Val Demings.

What makes you think Harris has more appeal to black voters than Klobuchar or any other VP candidate? She didn't seem to have any during the primary.

Cody87

NorthReport wrote:

How big a factor is a VP candidate in terms of votes for President. In the scheme of things, it can't be that much, but every bit helps. 

I disagree. The Biden team is tasked with the most significant and influential VP pick in history. There is no chance Biden serves a full term, even if he wins - and enough voters know it. This election won't be Trump vs. Biden, it will be Trump vs. the VP.

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