Coronavirus: what Canadians need to know

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NDPP

Countries That Are Nearly There...

https://twitter.com/sciencecohen/status/1274133478871728128

"This thread is worth reading from beginning to end, but I stopped cold at this graph of success. What are these countries doing right? Why do the graphs look worse in so many US locales? These curves are not driven by chance. For answers to these questions, see 25/25."

 

"The 5 states with the highest slope of cases increasing per million population, June 20th: 1. Arizona (way out in front) 2. South Carolina  3. Florida  4.Texas  5. Oklahoma (pre-rally)."

https://twitter.com/EricTopol/status/1274394714083483648

 

COVID-19 Live World Map/News

https://youtu.be/NMre6IAAAiU

Michael Moriarity Michael Moriarity's picture

Aristotleded24 wrote:

Michael Moriarity wrote:

Aristotleded24 wrote:

Michael Moriarity wrote:
There have been many similar examples of church based super spreading. Here is a very recent one: Oregon’s biggest coronavirus outbreak yet is linked to Union County church, state officials confirm

How many people in the United States died from traffic accidents either on their way to or from church during the same period? Lots of people are permanently disabled or killed from car crashes, yet nobody is scared of driving anywhere.

Posts like this are a better fit for the comment section at Breitbart than a forum like babble.

It's not obvious to me. If the answer is that easy, you should have no problem articulating it. But that's the problem with the left these days. Rather than speaking for average people and engaging in the conversation, they prefer to have their orthodxy and anyone who disagrees with them is Adolf Hitler. You think that's a winning approach to politics?

This has nothing to do with "speaking for average people". It is a discussion about which social tactics will minimize the damage caused by covid19. Of course, there are value judgments involved in deciding what "minimizing damage" means. For example, is avoiding a 10,000 point drop in the Dow Jones Average worth 1,000,000 poor Americans' lives?

Also, I didn't compare anyone to Hitler. I compared your post to the bullshit one finds on hardcore right wing comment sections, and it fits right in with the illogical ideas found in such places.

On the main point, you made an analogy between death and injuries from automobile accidents, and infections resulting from people holding religious (or other) meetings in which many people are together in an enclosed space, and engage in singing or other mass vocalizations which spray virus laden droplets within a radius of several meters.

The main reason this analogy is useless is that automobile accidents do not physically harm anyone other than those who are directly involved. They cannot result in sickness and death of others who are not even present, weeks after the event. Meetings of many people in enclosed spaces, especially if they are all singing (as in church) or yelling (as at a MAGA rally), are absolutely known to result in many infections if some of the participants happen to be spreading the virus.

To bring it right down to the personal, I have tried various online calculators which supposedly determine the risk of death if a person gets covid19. Based on my age, gender, and medical history, they predict that I have a 60% to 80% chance of dying if I am infected. I know, big deal, I'm an old man who has already had a heart attack, and lived more than I deserve.

But still, I am not yet ready to die unless I have no choice, and someone who caught the virus at a high risk religious or other gathering could buy their groceries in the same Freshco (Sobey's cheapo outlet) as I do. Such a person could cough all over the raisin bran box or the orange juice bottle 5 minutes before I buy it, and if I don't sanitize my hands just right, I could become part of the death count in a week or 3.

There seems to me no way that such a person would be likely to kill me in an auto accident. That whole idea is just irrelevant noise, often called "muddying the waters". And that is all your posts on this topic are doing.

Aristotleded24

Michael Moriarity wrote:
This has nothing to do with "speaking for average people". It is a discussion about which social tactics will minimize the damage caused by covid19. Of course, there are value judgments involved in deciding what "minimizing damage" means. For example, is avoiding a 10,000 point drop in the Dow Jones Average worth 1,000,000 poor Americans' lives?

I have never once argued against the covid restrictions from the point of view of stock market numbers. What I am doing is trying to look at the risks of coronavirus alongside other risks to human health, looking at the impact of human health on the restrictions, and trying to see how it all fits into the big picture. I've already mentioned on these boards that the social distancing measures undertaken have already killed more people in Winnipeg and Vancouver due to drug overdoses than were in danger of dying from covid. There are other risk factors from social distancing as well. People are comitting suicide because of the isolation from lockdown. Reduced physical activity is putting people at risk for cardiovascular disease. The stress and anxiety of hearing about covid non-stop in the media is putting people at risk. That's where the big flaw in these covid models becomes evident. People aren't dots that you can put into a model or confine at will. They have independent needs. The fact that the left seems to have bought into the idea that we need to hide from this virus while completely neglecting the other aspects of human health, many of which are directly threatened by social distancing, boggles my mind.

It's not a simple matter of saving lives or not. Coronavius has cost people their lives and will continue to do so. Social distancing measures have cost people their lives and will continue to do so. The challenging question is how to proceed in a way that reduces the risk of death across the board.

Michael Moriarity wrote:

Aristotleded24 wrote:

Michael Moriarity wrote:
On the main point, you made an analogy between death and injuries from automobile accidents, and infections resulting from people holding religious (or other) meetings in which many people are together in an enclosed space, and engage in singing or other mass vocalizations which spray virus laden droplets within a radius of several meters.

The main reason this analogy is useless is that automobile accidents do not physically harm anyone other than those who are directly involved. They cannot result in sickness and death of others who are not even present, weeks after the event. Meetings of many people in enclosed spaces, especially if they are all singing (as in church) or yelling (as at a MAGA rally), are absolutely known to result in many infections if some of the participants happen to be spreading the virus.

1) Strictly speaking, if somebody in the car has a bloodborne illness, that can impact not only the medical staff, but their families.

2) Where you are on the epidemiological curve matters. In the upstage of the curve, when the disease is new and you don't know much about it or where it is, then it is appropriate to close things down for a bit. This gives medical professionals time to track the disease, learn about it and find ways to incresae survival odds, and increase capacity in the medical system to handle an upsurge in patients. In our case, the pandemic has been with us for 3 months. Excluding Northern Saskatchewan, Northern New Brunswick, and Edmonton, the case count in the country is either declining or staying steady. We have good information about where the virus is spreading, and we should have a good idea of where it is safe to ease restrictions on gatherings.

3) If you are very clear with people that if they attend church, a Trump rally, or any public venue that there is a risk of exposure to covid, why not allow people to decide for themselves what risks they feel comfortable taking?

4) We are not all equal in our capacity to do social distancing. If the methods needed to survive the covid pandemic separate a person from everything that makes that person's life worthwhile, why would that person even want to survive the pandemic at all? That philosophical question is one of the things that have driven the anti-lockdown protests, and one that I haven't seen anybody really engage in at all.

Michael Moriarity wrote:
To bring it right down to the personal, I have tried various online calculators which supposedly determine the risk of death if a person gets covid19. Based on my age, gender, and medical history, they predict that I have a 60% to 80% chance of dying if I am infected. I know, big deal, I'm an old man who has already had a heart attack, and lived more than I deserve.

But still, I am not yet ready to die unless I have no choice, and someone who caught the virus at a high risk religious or other gathering could buy their groceries in the same Freshco (Sobey's cheapo outlet) as I do. Such a person could cough all over the raisin bran box or the orange juice bottle 5 minutes before I buy it, and if I don't sanitize my hands just right, I could become part of the death count in a week or 3.

Let's overlook for a second the possiblity that this person who coughed on the cereal box also attended a BLM protest. How likely is it that an individual can get sick in the method you just described? Approximately 9 million cases of coronavirus have been detected in the world, so if you wanted, you could find all sorts of scary ways that the virus can spread. Of coruse the media is going to highlight those stories in order to frighten people, because that's what sells. Is that realistically what is happening? There are very few times where health officials have announced, "a person who tested positive for covid was at such-and-such an establishment, on this date and time, if that's you, please watch for symptoms." Taking your scenario a bit further, what if you shared living space with someone who worked in a meat packing plant? Meat packing plants are notorious for spreading infectious diseases, and yet the media has almost nothing to say. Nothing about how these companies are ignoring safety protocols, infecting their workers, and turning entire towns and cities into covid hotspots. There is also no excuse for how badly covid swept through elder care homes, considering that elderly people are known to be at high risk of respiratory infections. Canada's first covid case arrived in late January, but we didn't record a death from covid until the second week in March. That should have been enough time to put forward a plan to protect our elders.

Regardless of how much we have clashed on this topic, I think we would at least agree that much more attention should be paid to systemic failures that allowed covid to spread but weren't addressed because it wasn't profitable?

Michael Moriarity Michael Moriarity's picture

Aristotleded24 wrote:

Regardless of how much we have clashed on this topic, I think we would at least agree that much more attention should be paid to systemic failures that allowed covid to spread but weren't addressed because it wasn't profitable?

On this particular thing, I agree with you. On the other hand, I consider all your words about how many deaths social distancing has caused, how many deaths auto accidents cause, and similar red herrings, to be seriously in error. They are also examples of a technique known as the Gish gallop. This is a method of frustrating rather than advancing the discussion by switching subjects rapidly and cramming a maximum number of bogus arguments into a minimum number of words. This can make comprehensive replies prohibitively difficult and time consuming.

NorthReport

Agreed.

epaulo13 epaulo13's picture

Covid-19 has become one of the biggest killers of 2020

This year its global toll exceeds that of breast cancer or malaria

NDPP

Dramatic Rise in COVID-19 Cases in Palestine Amid Israeli Violations

https://qudsnen.co/dramatic-rise-in-covid-19-cases-in-palestine-amid-isr...

"Israel's occupation has damaged the Palestinian health system, which may not be able to cope with the spread of COVID-19..."

eastnoireast

epaulo13 wrote:

Covid-19 has become one of the biggest killers of 2020

This year its global toll exceeds that of breast cancer or malaria

 

interesting that nobody died of the flu; or war, poverty, displacement, or pollution.

NDPP

As Cash Use Falls Victim to the Pandemic, It's Also Hurting Society's Most Vulnerable

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/nova-scotia/money-homelessness-economics-...

"The COVID-19 pandemic has sped up the already declining use of cash in Canada as more people have switched to using debt and credit cards, and that change is hurting people whose livelihoods depend on cash. 'It's going to again marginalize and exclude them from civil society,' says social work professor..."

NDPP

More Canadians Are Refusing Work Due to COVID-19, But it's Tough to Get Authorities to Agree

https://t.co/U9XxEcTOOJ?amp=1

"Provincial labour laws on refusing dangerous work are being tested as businesses reopen during the pandemic..."

NDPP

World Coronavirus Cases Rocket Past 9 Million As Pandemic Accelerates

https://www.wsws.org/en/articles/2020/06/22/covi-j22.html

"...The number of confirmed coronavirus cases yesterday rocketed past 9 million as the pandemic accelerates in every corner of the world, an increase of one million cases in seven days. The number of known deaths now stands at more than 469,000. Both these figures are on track to surpass the ghastly milestones of 10 million cases and 500,000 deaths later this week. The sharpest uptick in new cases continues to be in Eastern Europe, South Asia, North America and South America. The US has the most new cases of any country, closely followed by and sometimes exceeded by Brazil.

Globally, the seven-day moving average of daily deaths has never gone below 4,000 since the beginning of April and is again trending upwards. The seven-day moving average of daily cases has not gone below 100,000 since March 27 and will soon surpass 150,000..."

epaulo13 epaulo13's picture

Coronavirus Cases Surging in U.S. and Around the World

The World Health Organization warned that “the world is in a new and dangerous phase” of the coronavirus pandemic. Over 183,000 new cases were reported around the world on Sunday in the biggest single-day increase to date. Brazil, which recently surged past 1 million coronavirus cases, had the highest daily total, followed by the United States, then India.

Here in the U.S., confirmed coronavirus cases have topped 2.25 million with 120,000 reported deaths. Cases are surging in at least 18 states, with young people now seen as driving recent spikes. California reported over 4,500 new cases on Sunday, the highest one-day increase since the pandemic started. Eleven other states also recently reported records in new daily cases. The White House said Sunday it is preparing for a possible new wave in the fall. Echoing the Trump administration’s messaging, the Republican governors of Florida and Texas are blaming spikes in COVID-19 cases on increased testing. Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, though, admits there is a surge among young people under 37 and that the age is going down, and also blamed migrant worker communities.

In Northern California, rights groups and the families of prisoners at San Quentin State Prison are sounding the alarm after cases there tripled since the start of the month. Activists who are organizing under the hashtag #StopSanQuentinOutbreak say a May 30 transfer of prisoners from a facility in Chino is likely the reason for the outbreak and that prison staff did not isolate themselves even though prisoners are being quarantined.

In other coronavirus news, China has suspended Tyson chicken imports due to COVID-19 infections among workers.

Pondering

Aristotleded24 wrote:
  I have never once argued against the covid restrictions from the point of view of stock market numbers. What I am doing is trying to look at the risks of coronavirus alongside other risks to human health, looking at the impact of human health on the restrictions, and trying to see how it all fits into the big picture. I've already mentioned on these boards that the social distancing measures undertaken have already killed more people in Winnipeg and Vancouver due to drug overdoses than were in danger of dying from covid. There are other risk factors from social distancing as well. People are comitting suicide because of the isolation from lockdown. Reduced physical activity is putting people at risk for cardiovascular disease. The stress and anxiety of hearing about covid non-stop in the media is putting people at risk. That's where the big flaw in these covid models becomes evident. People aren't dots that you can put into a model or confine at will. They have independent needs. The fact that the left seems to have bought into the idea that we need to hide from this virus while completely neglecting the other aspects of human health, many of which are directly threatened by social distancing, boggles my mind.

It's not a simple matter of saving lives or not. Coronavius has cost people their lives and will continue to do so. Social distancing measures have cost people their lives and will continue to do so. The challenging question is how to proceed in a way that reduces the risk of death across the board. 

But your sole solution is to fully lift lockdown which most professionals agree would lead to many more deaths and would do nothing to prevent suicides or drug overdoses. Putting the bodies of dead family members on the street for pick up does not lead to fewer drug overdoses and suicides.  There is no good answer. People are going to die. We don't know what Covid-19 will do. It could become much milder at which point we can breath a sigh of relief and rip into governments for doing such a piss-poor job. Or now that it is spreading through younger populations we will learn that it is not just the elderly that are killed or incapacitated. The meat-packing plants were not full of elderly workers. 

If you want to argue that the government took and is taking a completely ineffective approach to lockdown and reopening I'm right with you. Distance traveling should have been stopped much sooner. The reason the lockdown was needed is because our governments were not prepared. They failed in their primary duty to organize society in such a way that we are prepared to survive major threats be they physical or economic. 

Cote St Luc asked to be quarantined and was refused. People would have accepted checkpoints on the bridges to Montreal slowing but not stopping traffic.  Only people you live with was a terrible place to draw the line. We could have gone to bubbles within a week or two at the most. 

From week one there should have been a massive campaign educating people on viruses, bacteria and mold illustrating the differences without taking a Reefer Madness approach. 

Viruses are in many ways similar to sperm. It only takes one, but it takes millions to give that one a chance. Density matters a lot but a low sperm count does not mean pregnancy can't occur. Sperm cannot grow on things or survive indefinitely. I think viruses survive longer and are easier to transfer from one surface to another but aside from that the analogy is a good one. 

2 metres distance does not guarantee you can't catch it even outdoors. But that is true of walking on a sidewalk too. It doesn't guarantee you won't get hit by a car. There are very few absolutes so it is a matter of weighing risk and reward. 

The protests should be silent and/or using cell phones and stamping feet to create noise. It wasn't a matter of don't protest or take big risks. Masks and hand-washing were not the only precautions available if people really understood the physical behavior of the virus. Homemade face shields could have been promoted from the beginning. They are remarkably easy to make with commonly available items. Worn with a mask is best but even without they can provide a significant amount of protection. Greater understanding of the virus would help people make personal risk assessments to base their decisions on.  Much more could have been asked of people on the honor system if they understood. 

We have a responsibility to stay out of the way of essential workers who do not have the luxury of staying out of harms way. They have to use public transit and work at jobs that expose them to the public. They have had to do so with a shortage of PPEs. The general public has a moral responsibility to stay out of their way and not increase the risks they have no choice but to take regardless of their personal living arrangements. Asymptomatic carriers put them at great risk. From the beginning the primary goal has been slowing the disease to not overwhelm the health care system. The health care system isn't just a thing it's people, workers. Workers who need our support. They are the ones who were working double shifts even before this crisis hit. Right now supporting essential workers means staying out of their way to minimize their risks. 

The "solution" to drug overdoses and suicides cannot be to sacrifice workers and the vulnerable. 

NDPP

Good post.

NDPP

"To say the difference between stage 1 and stage 2 is 'noticeable' is a huge understatement. Did  we think we'd re-open stores and our Rt would remain under 1? NOT with status quo. Not without MANDATORY FACE COVERINGS in all businesses."

https://twitter.com/imgrund/status/1275055324869922816

 

Ontario Records First COVID-19 Death of Someone Under the Age of 20

https://twitter.com/robferguson1/status/1275479305242451968

NEW: Death of child under 9 with COVID-19 and hospitalizations unexpectedly increase. Ontario's number of new cases was above 200 as the Ministry of Health registered 216 new infections that outnumbered the 174 cases considered to be resolved in the last day. Outbreaks in Ontario's 626 nursing homes remained effectively stalled at 66. Testing for COVID-19 suddenly dropped, with just 16,189 swabs processed..."

Yep. Sounds like we're definitely ready for re-opening...

NDPP

 America is too Broken to Fight the Coronavirus

https://twitter.com/padams29/status/1275396001306742786

"No other developed country is doing so badly..."

NDPP

Billions of Children are Being Punished by the Pandemic

https://www.counterpunch.org/2020/06/23/billions-of-children-are-being-p...

"There are immense casualties from this Great Lockdown. Incomes have collapsed for half the world's population, while hunger rates are on the rise. But there are other casualties, other victims, often less remarked upon..."

epaulo13 epaulo13's picture

Latin America Tops 100,000 Coronavirus Deaths as Brazilian President Ordered to Wear Mask in Public

Global confirmed coronavirus cases have topped 9.2 million, with nearly half a million deaths from COVID-19. Latin America’s regional death toll officially surpassed 100,000 Tuesday. In Brazil, a judge has ordered far-right President Jair Bolsonaro to wear a mask in public, or he’ll face a fine of nearly $400 per violation. This comes as Bolsonaro continues to attend massive political rallies across Brazil, which recorded nearly 40,000 new cases Tuesday — the worst infection rate in the world. This comes as Mexican health officials announced a daily record of over 4,500 new coronavirus infections. The European Union is preparing to reopen its borders to travelers from dozens of countries, except for people traveling from the United States, who may be barred due to the country’s high rates of infection. In the Middle East, Saudi Arabia announced it will bar travelers from abroad who were planning to attend the hajj this year amid the pandemic, marking the first time in modern history Muslims from around the world will not be allowed to make the annual pilgrimage to Mecca.

3,000 Pack Indoor Trump Rally in Arizona as COVID-19 Cases Surge to Record High

On Tuesday, President Trump traveled to Arizona, where he toured a section of newly built border wall, claiming the concrete and metal structure had “stopped COVID.” Trump’s claim came as Arizona confirmed 3,600 new coronavirus infections on Tuesday — a daily record. Hospitalizations topped 2,000 — also a record — with intensive care units now at 85% capacity. Trump later held his second campaign event since the start of the pandemic, speaking to 3,000 students in a packed megachurch in Phoenix. Few of the students wore masks, and none of them practiced social distancing, raising fears the Trump rally could be another coronavirus “superspreader” event. During his remarks, President Trump drew cheers when he mocked COVID-19 and repeated a racist nickname for the disease.

President Donald Trump: “Kung flu, yeah. Kung flu.”

On Tuesday, Twitter flagged another Trump tweet for violating its policy prohibiting abusive or violent language, after Trump wrote, “There will never be an 'Autonomous Zone' in Washington, D.C., as long as I’m your President. If they try they will be met with serious force!”

NDPP

USA: 'Anyone Feel Like It's Mid-March Again?

https://twitter.com/HelenBranswell/status/1276001268859723777

"...Recent events make it more clear -- in many places, probably most, opening needs to be halted or reversed to avoid a near future surge of infection..."

NDPP

WHO on COVID19 Pandemic

https://twitter.com/WHO/status/1276117832791703552

"The COVID19 pandemic is a once-in-a-lifetime event that has shown the world was not as prepared as it should have been. We must all learn the lessons it is teaching us, that we are one humanity, and none of us are safe until all of us are safe."

epaulo13 epaulo13's picture

How U.S. and Brazil Leadership That “Neglects Science” Led to Hemisphere’s Worst Coronavirus Crises

quote:

So, if you could talk a little bit about — you’ve been working, attending a conference that looks at the development of a vaccine for COVID-19 and how to ensure access to the vaccine in the countries that have been most vulnerable to its spread, including Brazil. So, could you tell us where that stands now?

MARCIA CASTRO: Yes. That’s a very good question. So, Brazil now is going to test two vaccines. So, there is an agreement that was signed with a Chinese pharmaceutical company and with a vaccine from Oxford. And then there are also groups in Brazil developing different types of vaccines. So there’s a different effort in different fronts.

Now, the key issue for low- and middle-income countries will be, if we imagine a scenario, hypothetical scenario, that we get a good vaccine — whatever “good” means, that’s a different discussion — and it’s ready to be produced at scale and then for a vaccination at scale. So, the first item, production at scale, right? So, if the production is going to be restricted to the high-income countries, it does raise the question: Who is going to get it first? And we saw this before, when we had the H1 and N1, that the rich countries got the vaccine first, because they could pay for it or they were producing it, and then the others had to wait. That is the first discussion. That’s why it’s so important for those agreements, international agreements, that are being made, so that countries can have access to all the science behind the vaccine development, but they also can have access to the vaccine being produced.

Brazil is unique in the sense that they do have at least two public institutions — and I’ll go back to this point in a moment — but they have Butantan Institute, and they have a FIOCRUZ, that they already produce most of the vaccines distributed in the country. They can do it. However, it depends what type of coronavirus vaccine we’re going to have. There are different types of them, and each one of them demands a different type of industrial plant to be able to produce. So, again, what countries should be doing now — and there are some European countries doing this — is the ones that have the industrial capacity to produce the vaccine, they should be trying to find ways to expedite the industrial production, so the moment something is ready, they can do it. Again, not every country will be able to do this, and they will depend on the countries producing the vaccine to have access to it.

The second thing is, it depends on how the vaccine will be distributed. Is it a type of vaccine that is very stable and easy to carry? Is it a type of vaccine that is not very stable and it’s going to be much more tricky to go around the country and to the very isolated areas to distribute? We don’t know that yet. But that can bring challenges to the whole logistic process of doing vaccination at scale.

The other thing is, we don’t know how many doses we’re going to need. And we don’t know how countries, inside each country, they will prioritize who is going to get first. Now, again, the case of Brazil is interesting because we do have a universal health system. Everybody gets access to care and to vaccination for free. You don’t pay a penny for it. So, in theory, every person in Brazil will be eligible to receive this vaccine once it’s available. But if it takes a long period of time to produce the vaccines— right? We have 8 billion people in the world. So, how long is it going to take to produce 8 billion doses? Well, if you can only produce 1 billion per year, you can imagine that we’re going to have to set priorities, both on inside each country who is going to get first and how countries will make agreements on how many doses they are going to receive.

So, the vaccination at scale is going to be extremely complicated. And I think that with the support from Gavi, from WHO, we have to find ways to make this as equitable as possible, so we don’t see another situation where the most vulnerable takes the heavier burden in the vaccination scheme.

Aristotleded24

NDPP wrote:
WHO on COVID19 Pandemic

https://twitter.com/WHO/status/1276117832791703552

"The COVID19 pandemic is a once-in-a-lifetime event that has shown the world was not as prepared as it should have been. We must all learn the lessons it is teaching us, that we are one humanity, and none of us are safe until all of us are safe."

That is true and that is why I am very concerned about the push to move every aspect of our lives online in response to the pandemic. This trend risks creating the rise of a priviledged class that never has any reason to leave their residences as they do all their work and socializing digitally, and have essential items like food delivered to their doors. Everyone else would be out and about exposed to whatever risks were present and little in the way of protection. One of the reasons that homeless people were taken off the streets and put into empty hotels was to preven covid from spreading amongst a vunlerable population. If the middle class can suddenly go about their day without leaving their homes and not having to worry themselves about getting sick, why will they then care about homeless people?

Aristotleded24

Meanwile experts confirm that a deadly second wave of cataclysmic proportions is inevitable:

Quote:

Predictions on when a second wave of COVID-19 could hit have ranged from the fall and winter months of this year, when flu season traditionally starts, to early next year, similar to the way the pandemic began.

But experts say the likelihood of a second wave isn't set in stone, and Canada could instead see several smaller waves in the coming months or avoid a second wave altogether — especially if we keep our guard up.

"There's actually nothing preordained about a second wave," said Steven Hoffman, director of the Global Strategy Lab and a global health law professor at York University in Toronto who studies pandemics. 

"We might have a second wave, we might have a third, fourth and fifth wave — we might not have a second wave at all."

Dr. Isaac Bogoch, an infectious disease physician and scientist with Toronto General Hospital, said instead of one cohesive second wave, we'll likely face smaller outbreaks in the coming months that will need to be clamped down on quickly.

"It's going to be a game of whack-a-mole," he said. 

"We're basically going to be trying to rapidly identify small outbreaks as soon as possible, quelling those small outbreaks and preventing them from snowballing into larger outbreaks and a larger epidemic."

Oh.

epaulo13 epaulo13's picture

Coronavirus: UK on course for further 30,000 deaths unless Boris Johnson changes approach, Independent Sage warns

The UK is on course for another 30,000 deaths by the first anniversary of the coronavirus pandemic unless Boris Johnson changes strategy, independent experts are warning.

A sharp drop in infections has already stalled, they say – with Chris Whitty, the chief medical officer, having suggested they could stay at around 3,000 a day for nine more months, they pointed out.

“If we carry on with 100 to 150 deaths a day, that’s over 30,000 deaths,” warned Christina Pagel, professor of operational research at University College London.

The professor is a member of the Independent Sage group of scientists, which has sharply criticised the government for lifting lockdown restrictions too early, before Covid-19 has been conquered.

In a new analysis, it said so-called “Super Saturday” on 4 July – when pubs, restaurants and cultural venues can reopen – will arrive before the country is ready for the “risk” it poses.....

NDPP

The Lessons Canada Can Take From the US's Mishandling of COVID-19

https://www.cbc.ca/news/us-covid-19-surge-canada-1.5628979

"...This is what happens when you reduce social-distancing measures and you have community transmission ongoing and those two things collide and it just spreads,' said Jason Kondrachuk, an assistant professor of virual pathogenesis at the University of Manitoba in Winnipeg and Canada Research Chair of emerging viruses. Kondrachuk said that Canadians would be well advised to take lessons from the American response to the pandemic..."

 

Why BC Will Be 'Right on the Brink' of a COVID-19 Resurgence For Months to Come

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/covid-19-june-look-forwa...

"British Columbia has moved to a new stage of its COVID-19 recovery, with Premier John Horgan announcing the move to Phase 3 earlier this week. BC is also seeing a sustained rise in cases for the first time in months, with hospitalizations at their highest point since June 7 and the 5 day rolling average of new cases the highest since May 17. If you think there's a risk there, you're not alone..."

NDPP

Ajamu Baraka: The Responsibility to Protect? Bipartisan Crimes Against Humanity in the US

https://www.counterpunch.org/2020/06/26/the-responsibility-to-protect-bi...

"...The zeal to save the economy at the cost of the systematic violation of every idea of a social contract to safeguard the rights of the people, along with the deliberate decisions not to marshall the resources of the state to ensure that everyone had access to the full range of medical care available, constitutes crimes against humanity by the US state."

NDPP

The Novel Coronavirus Has Now Infected More than 10 Million People

https://twitter.com/CTVNews/status/127721396738732032

"Global infections from the novel coronavirus have surpassed 10 million as the rate of new cases surges..."

 

Coronavirus Data Tracking Bot

https://twitter.com/corona_tracking/status/1277227754405183489

10,119,441 Coronavirus cases as of 2020-06-28

Aristotleded24

Michael Moriarity wrote:
Aristotleded24 wrote:

Regardless of how much we have clashed on this topic, I think we would at least agree that much more attention should be paid to systemic failures that allowed covid to spread but weren't addressed because it wasn't profitable?

On this particular thing, I agree with you. On the other hand, I consider all your words about how many deaths social distancing has caused, how many deaths auto accidents cause, and similar red herrings, to be seriously in error. They are also examples of a technique known as the Gish gallop. This is a method of frustrating rather than advancing the discussion by switching subjects rapidly and cramming a maximum number of bogus arguments into a minimum number of words. This can make comprehensive replies prohibitively difficult and time consuming.

I've believed from the start that it was never a simple matter that you could shut everything down and that the virus threat would go away, and that shutting everything down in response to covid would have negative impacts across the board. It astounds me that many of the pro-lockdown people on babble don't seem receptive to that point, nor are they even receptive to the basic idea that we are not all equal in our ability to endure these lockdown measures, especially as they drag on and on.

Michael Moriarity Michael Moriarity's picture

Aristotleded24 wrote:

I've believed from the start that it was never a simple matter that you could shut everything down and that the virus threat would go away, and that shutting everything down in response to covid would have negative impacts across the board. It astounds me that many of the pro-lockdown people on babble don't seem receptive to that point, nor are they even receptive to the basic idea that we are not all equal in our ability to endure these lockdown measures, especially as they drag on and on.

If that was all you ever posted, I would never have disagreed with you. All these government decisions must be based to some degree on guesswork because there is insufficient information to do a rigorous analysis of various plans. While my many disagreements with the Canadian government have often been posted here, I think Trudeau more of less followed the best medical and scientific advice he could find. Even Doug Ford has seemed semi-reasonable.

But I do distinctly recall you posting that the restrictions were all part of a plot to remove even more rights and freedoms from the population, and a misuse of scientific data. Those are the points I disagreed with you about.

Aristotleded24

Pondering wrote:

Aristotleded24 wrote:
  I have never once argued against the covid restrictions from the point of view of stock market numbers. What I am doing is trying to look at the risks of coronavirus alongside other risks to human health, looking at the impact of human health on the restrictions, and trying to see how it all fits into the big picture. I've already mentioned on these boards that the social distancing measures undertaken have already killed more people in Winnipeg and Vancouver due to drug overdoses than were in danger of dying from covid. There are other risk factors from social distancing as well. People are comitting suicide because of the isolation from lockdown. Reduced physical activity is putting people at risk for cardiovascular disease. The stress and anxiety of hearing about covid non-stop in the media is putting people at risk. That's where the big flaw in these covid models becomes evident. People aren't dots that you can put into a model or confine at will. They have independent needs. The fact that the left seems to have bought into the idea that we need to hide from this virus while completely neglecting the other aspects of human health, many of which are directly threatened by social distancing, boggles my mind.

It's not a simple matter of saving lives or not. Coronavius has cost people their lives and will continue to do so. Social distancing measures have cost people their lives and will continue to do so. The challenging question is how to proceed in a way that reduces the risk of death across the board. 

But your sole solution is to fully lift lockdown which most professionals agree would lead to many more deaths and would do nothing to prevent suicides or drug overdoses.

Professionals are not neutral, objective entities. They are human, and like the rest of us, have their own worldview and perspectives. I bet none of them make less than $15/hour. Their incomes are not threatened, and I'm willing to guess that for them to go to their own homes, they are not crammed into small apartments in large urban areas with many generations living inside. If they don't have family living with them, they certainly have the ability to connect virtually over the Internet, and are not lonely to the point of thinking they could completely cut off their phone and internet service to save money and they wouldn't miss out on anything important. They've been completely tone-deaf to the impacts of what they are suggesting.

Besides, I don't trust the professional class to advocate on behalf of average people anyways.

Pondering wrote:
Putting the bodies of dead family members on the street for pick up does not lead to fewer drug overdoses and suicides.

Except we have avoided the apocalyptic scenes of hospitals being over-run with covid patients in this country. Most parts of the country have the capacity to take on more covid patients, even as cases are generally spiking across the country this weekend. Dead bodies are, however, piling up from other causes which we aren't paying attention to because of covid. More people dead from overdoes in Winnipeg and BC than covid. More suicides in northern California than deaths from covid. It is also my contention that the social distancing measures brought on by covid are driving these deaths of despair. Perhaps the health officials took this into account, and there is a model out there that showed that if we hadn't done social distancing that more people would have died from covid in these areas than the aforementioned causes. I would like to see such numbers if they exist.

Pondering wrote:
Viruses are in many ways similar to sperm. It only takes one, but it takes millions to give that one a chance. Density matters a lot but a low sperm count does not mean pregnancy can't occur. Sperm cannot grow on things or survive indefinitely. I think viruses survive longer and are easier to transfer from one surface to another but aside from that the analogy is a good one.

Lots of things "could" happen. I find it's better for my mental health if I don't focus on them or look for ways to be scared.

Pondering wrote:
The protests should be silent and/or using cell phones and stamping feet to create noise.

The only thing that has ever worked throughout history to challenge elite power structures is masses of people in the street. As for using cell phones? Big Tech, if given the power, can very easily throttle any attempts at digital dissent. Ask any Chinese dissident about that.

Pondering wrote:
We have a responsibility to stay out of the way of essential workers who do not have the luxury of staying out of harms way. They have to use public transit and work at jobs that expose them to the public. They have had to do so with a shortage of PPEs. The general public has a moral responsibility to stay out of their way and not increase the risks they have no choice but to take regardless of their personal living arrangements. Asymptomatic carriers put them at great risk. From the beginning the primary goal has been slowing the disease to not overwhelm the health care system. The health care system isn't just a thing it's people, workers. Workers who need our support. They are the ones who were working double shifts even before this crisis hit. Right now supporting essential workers means staying out of their way to minimize their risks.

That's true, but covid isn't the only thing the health care system has to respond to. In Winnipeg and BC, it has had to respond to increases in overdose deaths. This puts strain not only on health care facilities, but on emergency response systems as well. Additionally, drug users often carry blood borne diseases that are far more dangerous than covid. More overdoses means more chances for EMS and hospital room staff to be potentially exposed to these infections.

Pondering wrote:
The "solution" to drug overdoses and suicides cannot be to sacrifice workers and the vulnerable.

False dichotomy. Many people vulnerable to drug overdoses and suicides are workers themselves, and they are also vulnerable.

 

 

 

 

 

NDPP

Dr John Campbell, Saturday, June 28, 2020, Coronavirus

https://youtu.be/4jdYYGQXXn8

Global update and US focus.

 

How the World Missed COVID-19's Silent Spreaders

https://twitter.com/IrfanDhalla/status/1276882248508354560

"For me, the key sentence in this article is this: 'The Chinese health authorities had explicitly cautioned that patients were contagious before showing symptoms.' Why has it been so hard for us to learn from countries in Asia."

 

"Sweden's had its biggest week of cases since March and also a rise in deaths lagging some numbers a few weeks earlier. Just waiting to be told how this is all fine and just down to more testing not its approach."

https://twitter.com/MackayIM/status/1277198244750090242

To my friends : Covid 19 is not going away and we need to leave Cloud Cuckoo land

Speaking for myself I realize I have been living in denial of the reality of COVID-19 pandemic. New research shows that COVID-19 antibodies or not permanent. This means that someone can get the disease several times.

Today on CNN Dr. Fauci said quickly because of the number of people who refused to take vaccines; even if a reasonable vaccine were found there is very little likelihood that the United States will ever get to herd immunity.

This would make COVID-19 a permanent piece of our lives. Because of the virulence of the spread and the fact that asymptomatic infected people spread the disease it means that all social contact increases the likelihood of infection.

This means that very large parts of work will end up done from home through a computer and that most things will be produced in automated manufacturing.

It means that huge numbers of workplaces will close and other will change. Eventually it seems unlikely and unhealthy that front line public service jobs will be complete on line, that mass lectures at universities will never reconvene, and that employers who want people to come into a workplace will need to pay for expensive retrofits. It will be unhealthy for doctors to meet people for private consultations in closed offices and it will mean that the restaurants that do survive will be only be able to serve 1/3 or 1/2 of the pre-Covid clients.

This will mean great misery to many people and maybe a lot of empty buildings.

If we don't start thinking about this Capital will determine our future.

We need to remember that the Luddites also failed.

Aristotleded24

[email protected] wrote:
To my friends : Covid 19 is not going away and we need to leave Cloud Cuckoo land

Speaking for myself I realize I have been living in denial of the reality of COVID-19 pandemic. New research shows that COVID-19 antibodies or not permanent. This means that someone can get the disease several times.

Today on CNN Dr. Fauci said quickly because of the number of people who refused to take vaccines; even if a reasonable vaccine were found there is very little likelihood that the United States will ever get to herd immunity.

This would make COVID-19 a permanent piece of our lives. Because of the virulence of the spread and the fact that asymptomatic infected people spread the disease it means that all social contact increases the likelihood of infection.

This means that very large parts of work will end up done from home through a computer and that most things will be produced in automated manufacturing.

It means that huge numbers of workplaces will close and other will change. Eventually it seems unlikely and unhealthy that front line public service jobs will be complete on line, that mass lectures at universities will never reconvene, and that employers who want people to come into a workplace will need to pay for expensive retrofits. It will be unhealthy for doctors to meet people for private consultations in closed offices and it will mean that the restaurants that do survive will be only be able to serve 1/3 or 1/2 of the pre-Covid clients.

This will mean great misery to many people and maybe a lot of empty buildings.

If we don't start thinking about this Capital will determine our future.

We need to remember that the Luddites also failed.

So let's live in fear of this thing now and forever until the end of time?

Sorry, I disagree.

By the way, Faucci also said that a second wave is not inevitable. Funny how expert opinion that contradicts the doom-and-gloom covid scenarios the media keeps presenting never make it into public consciousness.

Pondering

Aristotleded24 wrote:
  What I am doing is trying to look at the risks of coronavirus alongside other risks to human health, looking at the impact of human health on the restrictions, and trying to see how it all fits into the big picture. ... The fact that the left seems to have bought into the idea that we need to hide from this virus while completely neglecting the other aspects of human health, many of which are directly threatened by social distancing, boggles my mind. 

No one thinks we should be ignoring all other aspects of heatlh. People haven't been dying from Covid because of the shutdown. We are trying to avoid what happened in Wuhan and Italy and is happening in Brazil and beginning in the States.

Aristotleded24 wrote:
  The challenging question is how to proceed in a way that reduces the risk of death across the board.

Lifting lockdown and ending social distancing too early will not reduce the risk of death it will increase the risk of death for everyone including drug addicts and cancer patients and diabetics etc. These other issues don't make them immune from Covid.

Aristotleded24 wrote:
 Professionals are not neutral, objective entities. They are human, and like the rest of us, have their own worldview and perspectives. I bet none of them make less than $15/hour... They've been completely tone-deaf to the impacts of what they are suggesting. 

Lifting lockdown is not going to bring back the tourist industry and air travel and all the low wage jobs dependent on them.Many low wage workers are afraid to go back to work. They are doing so because they have no choice. In fact many business types were upset about CERB because it took pressure off of workers to accept whatever they were offered. Many low wage workers were perfectly happy to stay home on 500$ a week. Other workers may be desperate to get back to work but many of them will have no work to go back to depending on the industry they were in. I feel terrible for graduating pilots. Oil workers are screwed too. Opening up doesn't mean we are going to go back to the way things were even if a vaccine is eventually developed. Many stores and restarants are closed for good.

Aristotleded24 wrote:
  Except we have avoided the apocalyptic scenes of hospitals being over-run with covid patients in this country. Most parts of the country have the capacity to take on more covid patients, even as cases are generally spiking across the country this weekend.

Yes, because we locked down. As we learn more about the virus and as people become better educated (hopefully) we can loosen up and still stay safe but that is not the case in Montreal. People are interpreting the opening up as meaning it's over. From what I am hearing few people are wearing masks and those who are are wearing them wrong.

Aristotleded24 wrote:
 Dead bodies are, however, piling up from other causes which we aren't paying attention to because of covid. More people dead from overdoes in Winnipeg and BC than covid. More suicides in northern California than deaths from covid. It is also my contention that the social distancing measures brought on by covid are driving these deaths of despair. Perhaps the health officials took this into account, and there is a model out there that showed that if we hadn't done social distancing that more people would have died from covid in these areas than the aforementioned causes. I would like to see such numbers if they exist.  

Well we should be able to compare the before and after numbers on suicides and drug overdoses. We can look at countries that did not lockdown and see the covid numbers in those places. Nor is it just about deaths. It seems many people are left with long term damage. It is now spreading wildly in various states that refused to shut down and this is just the beginning.

Aristotleded24 wrote:
  Lots of things "could" happen. I find it's better for my mental health if I don't focus on them or look for ways to be scared.

Wearing a condom or taking birth control is not looking for a way to be scared and neither is social distancing and mask wearing. They are reasonable precautions to take against a known threat.

Aristotleded24 wrote:
  The only thing that has ever worked throughout history to challenge elite power structures is masses of people in the street. As for using cell phones? Big Tech, if given the power, can very easily throttle any attempts at digital dissent. Ask any Chinese dissident about that.

During the summer of student protests in Montreal some people had apps that would mimic banging pots and pans. Protesters are using their phones to organize at protests. We aren't in China.

Aristotleded24 wrote:
 That's true, but covid isn't the only thing the health care system has to respond to. In Winnipeg and BC, it has had to respond to increases in overdose deaths. This puts strain not only on health care facilities, but on emergency response systems as well. Additionally, drug users often carry blood borne diseases that are far more dangerous than covid. More overdoses means more chances for EMS and hospital room staff to be potentially exposed to these infections. 

Be that as it may those things are not as contagious as Covid-19 is. One of the worst things about it is asymptomatic carriers and that is why ramped up testing and tracing is so important. Yet again, the shortage of PPEs is interfering with the ability to restart "elective" surgery and dentistry.

Aristotleded24 wrote:
  False dichotomy. Many people vulnerable to drug overdoses and suicides are workers themselves, and they are also vulnerable.

Then they are on CERB and in some cases their jobs will not be coming back. There are places hiring low wage workers.  Some cleaning jobs won't come back as many companies are embracing work from home. Airlines are not coming back to pre-covid numbers any time soon. Tourist spots are opening up and begging for customers. Some people are traveling but many more are not and/or are staying close to home. All the festival jobs are gone for this year and probably down for next year. There are hotels that survive on Montreal's summer festival season from F1 to the Jazz festival and Just for Laughs and Pride celebrations and countless other major events. Reopening isn't going to bring that season back.

My prediction is that we will begin to see the ramifications of reopening Montreal in mid-August.

Yes there is major fall-out from the economic shutdown that has a major impact on health especially in the case of the most vulnerable populations.

It's your solution that I disagree with. We need to fight for better mental health care and for drug addiction to be treated as a health issue not a criminal one. We need to recognize access to decent housing as a right for all Canadians. We need enough PPEs being manufactured in Canada. Climate change is also killing people.

Left Turn Left Turn's picture

Michael Moriarity wrote:

Aristotleded24 wrote:

I've believed from the start that it was never a simple matter that you could shut everything down and that the virus threat would go away, and that shutting everything down in response to covid would have negative impacts across the board. It astounds me that many of the pro-lockdown people on babble don't seem receptive to that point, nor are they even receptive to the basic idea that we are not all equal in our ability to endure these lockdown measures, especially as they drag on and on.

If that was all you ever posted, I would never have disagreed with you. All these government decisions must be based to some degree on guesswork because there is insufficient information to do a rigorous analysis of various plans. While my many disagreements with the Canadian government have often been posted here, I think Trudeau more of less followed the best medical and scientific advice he could find. Even Doug Ford has seemed semi-reasonable.

But I do distinctly recall you posting that the restrictions were all part of a plot to remove even more rights and freedoms from the population, and a misuse of scientific data. Those are the points I disagreed with you about.

I'm of the opinion that our approach to COVID should have been based from the beginning on the following premises: First, that it should be possible to kill the virus completely by denying it any means of transmission, and that to fail to do so is medically irresponsible. Second, that it is within the government's power to ensure that everybody is able to take those measures necessary to ensure that we completely extinguish COVID, that nobody loses their livelihood while taking such measures; and that failure to do so is socially and economically irresponsible.

Starting from those premises, it's clear that the response to COVID needed to be far more socialist than the actions that have been taken, and that debates over lockdown vs. no lockdown under current economic conditions have set up a false dichotomy.

Left Turn Left Turn's picture

Aristotleded24 wrote:

[email protected] wrote:
To my friends : Covid 19 is not going away and we need to leave Cloud Cuckoo land

Speaking for myself I realize I have been living in denial of the reality of COVID-19 pandemic. New research shows that COVID-19 antibodies or not permanent. This means that someone can get the disease several times.

Today on CNN Dr. Fauci said quickly because of the number of people who refused to take vaccines; even if a reasonable vaccine were found there is very little likelihood that the United States will ever get to herd immunity.

This would make COVID-19 a permanent piece of our lives. Because of the virulence of the spread and the fact that asymptomatic infected people spread the disease it means that all social contact increases the likelihood of infection.

This means that very large parts of work will end up done from home through a computer and that most things will be produced in automated manufacturing.

It means that huge numbers of workplaces will close and other will change. Eventually it seems unlikely and unhealthy that front line public service jobs will be complete on line, that mass lectures at universities will never reconvene, and that employers who want people to come into a workplace will need to pay for expensive retrofits. It will be unhealthy for doctors to meet people for private consultations in closed offices and it will mean that the restaurants that do survive will be only be able to serve 1/3 or 1/2 of the pre-Covid clients.

This will mean great misery to many people and maybe a lot of empty buildings.

If we don't start thinking about this Capital will determine our future.

We need to remember that the Luddites also failed.

So let's live in fear of this thing now and forever until the end of time?

Sorry, I disagree.

By the way, Faucci also said that a second wave is not inevitable. Funny how expert opinion that contradicts the doom-and-gloom covid scenarios the media keeps presenting never make it into public consciousness.

There is no need to live in fear of COID forever until the end of time, but I do believe we need to treat COVID as enemy #1 until such time as there is a vaccine. What we do to live with COVID on an ongoing basis ought only to be contemplated if it becomes clear that a COVID vaccine is not on offer in the next 1-2 years, something which is far from determined one way or the other at present.

NDPP

Pandemic Surpasses 10 Million COVID-19 Cases and Over 500,000 Deaths Globally

https://www.wsws.org/en/articles/2020/06/29/pand-j29.html

"Over the weekend, the number of COVID-19 cases surpassed the 10 million mark as the pandemic accelerated throughout North America, the Indian subcontinent, the Middle East and South Africa. As of this writing, the Worldometer coronavirus tracker has logged 10,996, 711 cases. In another grim milestone, the number of global deaths due to COVID-19 rose above 500,000, standing at 503, 149. The number of serious and critical cases has also begun to climb again. On Saturday, the US posted a one-day high of 47,341 new COVID-19 cases, fueled by the reckless and premature 'reopening' of the country..."

 

COVID-19 Live World Map/News

https://youtu.be/NMre6IAAAiU

Total Cases: 10,225, 025 - Total Deaths: 505,002

News: CanSino's COVID-19 vaccine candidate approved for PLA military use in China.

NDPP

Gilead Prices Coronavirus Drug at US$2,340...

https://twitter.com/CTVNews/status/1277569990250692608

"The maker of a drug shown to shorten recovery time for severely ill COVID-19 patients says it will charge $US 2,340 for a typical treatment course..."

 

"Joseph Grogan was a lobbyist for the pharmaceutical giant Gilead Sciences before he joined the Trump administration as director of the Domestic Policy Council and led the Drug Pricing and Innovation work group. On Wednesday, after Gilead announced that it would be starting two clinical trials of an anti-viral drug that could be used to treat COVID-19, the company's stock price surged..."

https://theintercept.com/2020/02/29/cronyism-and-conflicts-of-interest-i...

This is only the beginning of such obscene pricing and speculations with anti-COIVD drugs, vaccines. Caveat Emptor.

epaulo13 epaulo13's picture

Massive Case of Denial: COVID Surges in US, Tops 10M Globally, as Pence Touts “Remarkable Progress”

quote:

LAURIE GARRETT: Amy, I was thinking about that I think the first time I was on this show talking about COVID-19, it didn’t have a name yet. We just said “the coronavirus” or “Wuhan virus” at the time. And it was February, and I told you that best-case scenario was we would get out of this in 36 months. Well, it’s been — what? — five months since then, and I do think we have at least three years ahead of us.

This has just been a massive case of denial, of idiotic government policy, of the lack of any strategic planning, any really specific strategic goal. And I’m not just speaking of the United States. Almost the entire world has screwed this up. Even in Europe, where they’ve managed to bring their epidemic down after great pain and suffering, and in places like Japan, where they never really had a serious spike because they took such excellent, proactive steps, the whole world’s efforts and all the sacrifices that people have made elsewhere in the world are imperiled by our out-of-control pandemic.

And as you said, we represent about a quarter of the entire global burden. If you add in the next big three — Brazil, India and Russia — you make up half of the entire global total of this pandemic. And what that means is that unless we control our efforts in our country and in those other three, the whole world gets imperiled by reinfection and reinfection and reinfection, coming from American travelers, Brazilian travelers, Indian travelers, Russian travelers.

So we have a duty not just to ourselves and to Americans, that we hopefully care about, senior Americans in nursing homes we hopefully care about, but we have a duty to the whole planet, and in particular to countries that don’t have the resources we have, that don’t have the capacity to conquer their own outbreaks, whether they’re desperately poor or they lack an entire infrastructure of health or both. So, Amy, we’re in very, very dire straits right now.

quote:

LAURIE GARRETT: Well, it’s more than two, Amy, actually. This virus affects the entire body. And the more we look at it and the longer we have this epidemic go on, so that we see more and more cases, it’s looking like just about every single organ system in the entire human body is affected by this virus, directly or indirectly.

I think because the initial presentations in China were all about pneumonia, we tended to think of it as a respiratory disease, but really profoundly, it’s a cardiovascular disease. The entire cardiovascular system is affected by infection with this virus. And we’re beginning to understand that some people who have seemingly asymptomatic or very mild infections may in fact have long-lasting problems in their bodies that result from having been exposed to the virus, so that it’s a whole host of factors.

I mean, we know the virus can infect the brain. And the long-standing repercussions of a neurological infection can be quite profound, including long-term depression, loss of smell, loss of taste, certain hearing problems, visual problems and certain kinds of cognitive issues.

We see the entire blood vascular system is affected. Blood vessels can be constricting. You can see people having strokes, having tachycardia events, having a host of different issues related to plaque buildup or not. Interestingly, taking statins seems to be helpful, so that implies that some of the same mechanism that are involved with cholesterol buildup and plaque formation as a contributor to heart disease may somehow have a similar role with this virus.

And the renal problems, the kidney problems, are really profound. Many people who have recovered and are out of hospital, after weeks of struggling with this virus, have permanent kidney damage.

And we’re beginning more and more to realize that, you know, this isn’t like having the flu — you get over it, you have a couple weeks where you’re still a little shaky, and then, boom, you know, after that period of time, you’re A-OK. This is not like that. People are having permanent damage. Even Guillain-Barré syndrome, the neurological partial paralysis syndrome that affects the limbs, has turned up with this virus.

epaulo13 epaulo13's picture

quote:

LAURIE GARRETT: Early in the epidemic, when we thought this was a very similar virus to SARS, I actually said you don’t need to wear a mask outdoors. It didn’t work for SARS. It won’t work for this. It’s really not relevant. But I’ve learned my lesson, and I think the whole entire medical and scientific community have learned a lesson.

You know, back in February and early March, we didn’t realize how deeply contagious this virus is. And it’s contagious in two ways that involve your mask, wearing a mask. The first is the kind of propellant that comes from coughing or sneezing and [coughs], and you’re creating a plosive, sort of propelling droplets forward. In that situation, the droplets may actually be visible to the naked eye; they may not even be microscopic. But the good news is, they will go out, but they’re contained within heavy water droplets, so gravity takes over, and they fall to the ground.

The much worse, which is what’s carried by asymptomatic carriers and people with very mild infections, involves no coughing, involves just normal patterns of speech, as I am doing right now, involves normal breathing, involves the kind of slightly accelerated breathing that comes with being a jogger or having some kind of exercise. And in those situations, you’re propelling virus in microscopic-size water droplets that cannot be seen, and they are not as gravitationally affected. They will go outwards and linger and get caught in air streams and move around within an enclosed space for hours and hours and hours on end. And in that way, you, as an individual walking without a mask on into a store, into a restaurant, into a friend’s house, and standing there having normal speech, are basically contaminating the atmosphere of the space. And as long as their windows are closed or it’s not a good air flow-through space, the contamination will remain for a considerable amount of time. So, you don’t even know you’re infected. You don’t know you’re a carrier. You have no particular symptoms. You’re 25 years old. You feel fearless. What could possibly threaten you? But you just managed to threaten a whole group of people you got in contact with.

I mean, Amy, you probably have been following the case of the Harper’s bar in East Lansing, Michigan. They opened up when Michigan started opening up. It was legal, what they were doing. The bar was a very popular hot spot in that college town, packed with twenty-somethings. Everybody took their masks off, you know, or they had them dangling from one ear, you know, as like a fashion statement. A lot of drinking. And now, last count, more than 80 people have been contact traced to having COVID directly because they went to that bar. Well, the only way to deal with that situation is to shut the whole bar down, disinfect the entire place, open all the windows, put fans in, blow the place clean.

Aristotleded24

Michael Moriarity wrote:
While my many disagreements with the Canadian government have often been posted here, I think Trudeau more of less followed the best medical and scientific advice he could find. Even Doug Ford has seemed semi-reasonable.

Trudeau did not follow good advice at all. His government ignored warnings from the WHO and intelligence agencies that said this was had the potential to become a huge problem. Doug Ford failed to protect elder care homes in Ontario, and his government routienely botched the testing situation. As proof that Ford mishandled the situation, look at how Ontario was the last province to enter a downswing in the number of new cases.

You can easily count the number of world governments that responded well to coronavirus on one hand. Canada is not in that category by a long shot.

Michael Moriarity wrote:
I do distinctly recall you posting that the restrictions were all part of a plot to remove even more rights and freedoms from the population, and a misuse of scientific data. Those are the points I disagreed with you about.

Because a government would never try and capitalize on a situation where the population is afraid for its own benefit not too long after people the world over took to the streets demanding action on climate change and the economic plight of the working class?

Aristotleded24

Left Turn wrote:

Aristotleded24 wrote:

[email protected] wrote:
To my friends : Covid 19 is not going away and we need to leave Cloud Cuckoo land

Speaking for myself I realize I have been living in denial of the reality of COVID-19 pandemic. New research shows that COVID-19 antibodies or not permanent. This means that someone can get the disease several times.

Today on CNN Dr. Fauci said quickly because of the number of people who refused to take vaccines; even if a reasonable vaccine were found there is very little likelihood that the United States will ever get to herd immunity.

This would make COVID-19 a permanent piece of our lives. Because of the virulence of the spread and the fact that asymptomatic infected people spread the disease it means that all social contact increases the likelihood of infection.

This means that very large parts of work will end up done from home through a computer and that most things will be produced in automated manufacturing.

It means that huge numbers of workplaces will close and other will change. Eventually it seems unlikely and unhealthy that front line public service jobs will be complete on line, that mass lectures at universities will never reconvene, and that employers who want people to come into a workplace will need to pay for expensive retrofits. It will be unhealthy for doctors to meet people for private consultations in closed offices and it will mean that the restaurants that do survive will be only be able to serve 1/3 or 1/2 of the pre-Covid clients.

This will mean great misery to many people and maybe a lot of empty buildings.

If we don't start thinking about this Capital will determine our future.

We need to remember that the Luddites also failed.

So let's live in fear of this thing now and forever until the end of time?

Sorry, I disagree.

By the way, Faucci also said that a second wave is not inevitable. Funny how expert opinion that contradicts the doom-and-gloom covid scenarios the media keeps presenting never make it into public consciousness.

There is no need to live in fear of COID forever until the end of time, but I do believe we need to treat COVID as enemy #1 until such time as there is a vaccine. What we do to live with COVID on an ongoing basis ought only to be contemplated if it becomes clear that a COVID vaccine is not on offer in the next 1-2 years, something which is far from determined one way or the other at present.

What if a vaccine for covid can't ever be found? Then what? I think the scientific community speculated about a vaccine being able to solve the pandemic, and people grabbed onto that as being the one definitive thing that would help. You're also going to have problems with uptake. I believe in vaccinations against the common major illnesses that vaccines have eradicated, but even if one is available, I have no intention of being vaccinated against covid because I don't trust that a safe vaccine can be developed in that short a time frame. The WHO has even said that this virus could become one of the many illnesses we will just have to live with, and I think that is the most likely outcome as well.

Aristotleded24

Pondering wrote:
Many low wage workers are afraid to go back to work. They are doing so because they have no choice.

That's true, but you will never eliminate people being afraid. If you were to implement a restrictive policy just because someone was afraid of something, we would have very few freedoms. At what point does it become reasonable to say people have to find ways to cope with their fears on their own while allowing life to go on? Also note that when people are asked what they are afraid of, quite often their level of fear (in either direction) is out of step with the actual risk posed. I see that here in Winnipeg as people are afraid of catching West Nile Virus even though the odds of serious complications or death is minutely small (much more so than driving to the lake for the Long Weekend which doesn't scare anyone) and as a result, the city sprays deadly chemicals in the environment to control mosquitos.

Pondering wrote:
As we learn more about the virus and as people become better educated (hopefully) we can loosen up and still stay safe but that is not the case in Montreal.

Montreal's numbers are currently on a downswing, along with the rest of the province.

Pondering wrote:
Aristotleded24 wrote:
  Lots of things "could" happen. I find it's better for my mental health if I don't focus on them or look for ways to be scared.

Wearing a condom or taking birth control is not looking for a way to be scared and neither is social distancing and mask wearing. They are reasonable precautions to take against a known threat.

There is a difference between simply taking a precaution and moving on and obsessively worried about it. In this case, it is an individual choice to take the precautions or to take the risk. Should sexual activity be policed and restricted, given that the fall-out from the spread of STIs and unplanned pregnancies causes massive social ramifications? There was a eugenics movement in the early part of the last century that argued for just that on the grounds of the common good.

Getting to a larger point, when will I have the freedom to make my own choices about the level of comfort I have around covid and the level of risk that I am prepared to take? The Trump campaign was criticized for having attendees sign a waiver saying they would not sue if they caught covid. I think that is actually responsible and it treats people like adults. Basically tell them, "there is a risk to your health if you show up, we cannot guarantee safety, and it is now up to you what you do with this information." Judging by the fiasco in Oklahoma, it doesn't look like large Trump rallies are going to be a major source of covid spread any time soon.

NDPP

#COVID-19 in Ontario, June 29, 2020

https://twitter.com/jkwan_md/status/1277608132001357827

"34911 known cases (257 new cases) - 2665 total deaths (7 new deaths). See thread for more graphs."

NDPP

NHL Says 26 Players Have Tested Positive Since June 8

https://www.cbc.ca/sports/hockey/nhl-positive-covid-19-tests-1.5631645

"...Monday's update includes 4 additional cases among those tested at team facilities, to go along with the 11 announced June 19. The league says it's aware of 11 other players testing positive outside the voluntary workout protocol..."

NDPP

Coronavirus in Canada

https://www.ctvnews.ca/health/coronavirus

Total Cases: 103,918/ Active: 28,174/ Recovered: 67, 178/ Deceased: 8,566

  • Ontario reports significant spike in new COVID-19 cases
  • 'On-edge': flying in Canada - airlines end physical distancing
  • Canadian-made COVID-19 vaccine ready to start human trials soon

 

NDPP

New Data on the Multi-System Inflammatory Syndrome in 186 Kids

https://twitter.com/imgrund/status/1277745914434764801

"Oh...isn't this the multi-system inflammatory sydrome that Sick Kids Hospital said was 'rare and treatable?'

epaulo13 epaulo13's picture

States Mandate Face Masks, Impose New Restrictions as Cases Surge Across U.S.

More states around the country are imposing new measures and rolling back their reopening as coronavirus cases continue to surge. The governors of Oregon and Kansas are mandating face masks for residents. Jacksonville, Florida, which will host August’s Republican National Convention, also said it will make face coverings mandatory. Trump moved the RNC from North Carolina over Governor Roy Cooper’s refusal to allow for a packed arena during the pandemic. Seven cities in Texas say they will impose orders mandating face masks.

Meanwhile, hospitals in Texas report a dire situation as cases surge. This is Dr. Peter Hotez, who says Houston is in a “race to the bottom” alongside Phoenix and a few other cities.

Dr. Peter Hotez: “We’re seeing this massive relapse, this resurgence, and it’s happening in all the major metro areas of Texas, and it’s very alarming. The rate of acceleration is extreme.”

A major hospital system in Houston reportedly stopped disclosing COVID-19 data after its ICU capacity hit 100%, and following conversations with Governor Greg Abbott in which he expressed concern over negative headlines.
In other news from Texas, three congressmembers — Joaquin Castro, Henry Cuellar and Sylvia Garcia — were potentially exposed to the coronavirus after coming into contact with an ICE employee last week at an immigrant prison in Dilley, Texas, who later tested positive.

In California, where COVID-19 cases surged by 45% over the past week and a record 8,000 new daily cases were reported Monday, Governor Gavin Newsom said over 1,000 prisoners at San Quentin have now tested positive — nearly a third of all prisoners.

Meanwhile, beaches in Los Angeles, as well as several Florida counties, will be closed for Fourth of July weekend.

NDPP

Pandemic: The Sequel?

https://on.rt.com/akpn

"MSM stokes panic as yet another animal virus spreads to humans in China, but there's little to fear..."

 

China Study Warns of Possible New 'Pandemic Virus from Pigs'

https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/china-virus-pigs-1.5632447

"Pig farm workers showed elevated levels of virus in their blood, study authors say..."

epaulo13 epaulo13's picture

Dr. Anthony Fauci Warns U.S. Could Soon Record 100,000 Coronavirus Cases a Day

The United States is experiencing the world’s worst outbreak of COVID-19, which could soon spiral out of control unless urgent steps are taken to isolate confirmed cases and conduct contact tracing. That was the stark warning of top U.S. infectious disease expert Dr. Anthony Fauci in testimony to a Senate committee on Tuesday.

Dr. Anthony Fauci: “When you have an outbreak in one part of the country, even though in other parts of the country they’re doing well, they are vulnerable. I made that point very clearly last week at a press conference. We can’t just focus on those areas that are having the surge. It puts the entire country at risk. We are now having 40-plus thousand new cases a day. I would not be surprised if we go up to 100,000 a day, if this does not turn around.”

Dr. Fauci’s warning came as eight states announced single-day highs, with a record 47,000 U.S. infections reported on Tuesday. The U.S. has 4% of the world’s population but has recorded more than a quarter of worldwide coronavirus cases and deaths. In California, Governor Gavin Newsom is set to announce new rollbacks of reopenings after a record rise in new cases and hospitalizations. In Houston, hospitals have begun transferring COVID patients to other parts of Texas, as the city has become a new epicenter of the pandemic. This is Dr. Peter Hotez, dean of the Baylor College of Medicine.

Dr. Peter Hotez: “It’s very alarming. The rate of acceleration is extreme. We’re seeing daily dramatic increase, almost a vertical slope, some of the models saying that we may be at 4,000 cases a day in Houston by early, middle July. So it would be catastrophic for the city.”

...

Dozens of Healthcare Workers Died of COVID-19 After OSHA Dismissed Pleas for PPE

A new report finds U.S. health workers filed more than 4,100 complaints about a lack of personal protective equipment during the pandemic — even as hundreds died of COVID-19. The report from Kaiser Health News and The Guardian found officials with the Occupational Safety and Health Administration rapidly closed many complaints without issuing citations. Researchers found just a single instance when OSHA issued a fine: a $3,900 penalty for a Georgia nursing home that failed to report worker hospitalizations on time.

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