Coronavirus: what Canadians need to know

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Paladin1

Aristotleded24 wrote:

I'm prepared to eat crow and admit that I was wrong about how serious this pandemic is. Really hoping for all the best.

When you have the government and WHO themselves trying to downplay this for weeks and months and calling it not a big deal it's easy to miss the seriousness of it.

Pondering

We can't trust the WHO as they repeatedly said to not close borders and never even recommended border checks. They expressed no opinion over leaving people trapped on cruise ships. They praised China's response when they should be condemned for ignoring medical warnings. 

https://www.macleans.ca/opinion/when-will-china-be-held-accountable-for-coronavirus/

 

kropotkin1951

Great thread, Sean and Pondering fighting and an opinion piece on how we all need to start blaming China.

Sean in Ottawa

kropotkin1951 wrote:

Great thread, Sean and Pondering fighting and an opinion piece on how we all need to start blaming China.

The irony of piling on to criticize those who were arguing.

Aristotleded24

Pondering wrote:
We can't trust the WHO as they repeatedly said to not close borders and never even recommended border checks. They expressed no opinion over leaving people trapped on cruise ships. They praised China's response when they should be condemned for ignoring medical warnings. 

https://www.macleans.ca/opinion/when-will-china-be-held-accountable-for-coronavirus/

No country's pandemic response is perfect, and I'm sure that China could have done many things differently. That said, notice where they are along the contagion curve? Notice that life is starting to return to normal?

Pondering

Aristotleded24 wrote:

Pondering wrote:
We can't trust the WHO as they repeatedly said to not close borders and never even recommended border checks. They expressed no opinion over leaving people trapped on cruise ships. They praised China's response when they should be condemned for ignoring medical warnings. 

https://www.macleans.ca/opinion/when-will-china-be-held-accountable-for-coronavirus/

No country's pandemic response is perfect, and I'm sure that China could have done many things differently. That said, notice where they are along the contagion curve? Notice that life is starting to return to normal?

I have. Notice how that is not happening elsewhere. Notice the thousands of dead people that could have lived had China and other governments acted apppropriately? I am no fan of Trudeau these days but he is being criticized for following the advice of the WHO.  I considered them the authority on how we should react.  

Just about everything we have done should have been done a week sooner and China lied to the world. 

Thousands of lives could have been saved and escaped and we could have escaped some of the economic damage that will be visited on the poor while the wealthy find ways to make even more money. 

The WHO failed us. The government of China failed us. Our governments failed us. I was shocked when I read polls indicating that corporations and CEOs are more trusted than politicians. I am very cynical about the motives of corporations and I do not claim they are acting altruistically but at least some are stepping up.

Now there is no stopping it. I hope we learn our lesson this time but I fear we will not. Either way this will have a major impact on how we live not just now but into the future.

This could have massive ripple effects, some of them good. Think about the pipeline. The economic case is gone. It was always build on optimistic predictions of getting the oil to market fast enough that it would still command a decent price. Every year of delay, every cancellation of projects, increases the chances that little to no new oil infrastructure will be built. 

Simultaneously the world is seeing how fast skies turn blue when we burn less fossil fuel.

kropotkin1951

Thanks Pondering for explaining, after reading multiple news sites controlled by oligarchs, that governments all around the globe have failed us and we should all put our faith in corporations and CEO's.

NDPP

The 2019 Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19)

https://www.ontario.ca/page/2019-novel-coronavirus

Find out how to protect yourself and how to recognize symptoms. Lots more important info here.

NDPP

Coronavirus - A Lockdown Is Not Enough

https://t.co/dswXeAFFgZ?amp=1

"Dr Carl Juaneau, who is specialized in epidemiology, has pointed me to a page where he collects useful information about the novel Coronavirus Sars-COV-2 and the current pandemic it causes. It is quite good. And our governments are still not doing enough..."

 

Does the COVID-19 Crisis Have To Result in a Wealthier Wealthy?

https://www.counterpunch.org/2020/03/17/does-the-covid-19-crisis-have-to...

"...In deeply unequal societies, nations where wealth and power have concentrated intensely, a few people have the means to undercut the common good. These wealthy few can exploit the vulnerabilities of societies in crisis to make themselves even wealthier. Back in 2007, Naomi Klein explained this phenomenon brilliantly in her landmark bood The Shock Doctrine. Klein showed how corporate elites worldwide have repeatedly and brutally used 'The public's disorientation following a collective shock - wars, coups, terrorist attacks, market-crashes or natural disasters - to push through radical pro-corporate measures.'

Klein sees those same 'shock-doctrine' dynamics now resurfacing in the Coronavirus crisis..."

Michael Moriarity Michael Moriarity's picture

I've just been fiddling with a spreadsheet and have come up with a few numbers that I haven't seen anywhere before now, although that could just be me. I start with a statement by federal health minister Patty Hajdu to a parliamentary committee on March 11. According to the Globe and Mail:

Canadian Press wrote:

The COVID-19 outbreak is a “national emergency and crisis," Ms. Hajdu told the House of Commons health committee, but public health officials say they won’t prohibit mass gatherings until the virus spreads more widely.

“There are a range of estimates, but I would say that it is safe to assume that it could be between 30 per cent of the population that acquire COVID-19 and 70 per cent of the population,” she said.

While most will recover, she said Canadians must work together to protect seniors, people with underlying conditions and other vulnerable groups.

According to wikipedia, Canada's population is 37 million. If we take the low-end estimate of 30%, that is 11.1 million people infected by the virus. If the curve is well flattened, and these cases are spread out evenly over 12 months, that would be 925,000 cases per month, for 12 consecutive months. At a conservative fatality rate of 1%, that means 9,250 deaths per month for a full year.

This is the most conservative, best case estimate. I leave it as an exercise for the reader to plug in the figures for a 70% infection rate, and/or a 3% fatality rate, and see how that goes. Plus of course, it could be all crammed into fewer than 12 months. I don't think many people are understanding that this is what is going to happen.

NDPP

I find Michael's extrapolations unfortunately all too sound and must also agree few appreciate the magnitude of what is to come. Except insiders like Trudeau, Hajdu, Freeland et al who will never tell us nor take the strongest necessary measures now to mitigate the carnage to come.

NDPP

"Italy hasn't had a COVID-19 death in anyone under age 30. But the fatality rates in people 70 and older are eye-popping..."

https://twitter.com/HelenBranswell/status/1239951525729927171

Sean in Ottawa

Michael Moriarity wrote:

I've just been fiddling with a spreadsheet and have come up with a few numbers that I haven't seen anywhere before now, although that could just be me. I start with a statement by federal health minister Patty Hajdu to a parliamentary committee on March 11. According to the Globe and Mail:

Canadian Press wrote:

The COVID-19 outbreak is a “national emergency and crisis," Ms. Hajdu told the House of Commons health committee, but public health officials say they won’t prohibit mass gatherings until the virus spreads more widely.

“There are a range of estimates, but I would say that it is safe to assume that it could be between 30 per cent of the population that acquire COVID-19 and 70 per cent of the population,” she said.

While most will recover, she said Canadians must work together to protect seniors, people with underlying conditions and other vulnerable groups.

According to wikipedia, Canada's population is 37 million. If we take the low-end estimate of 30%, that is 11.1 million people infected by the virus. If the curve is well flattened, and these cases are spread out evenly over 12 months, that would be 925,000 cases per month, for 12 consecutive months. At a conservative fatality rate of 1%, that means 9,250 deaths per month for a full year.

This is the most conservative, best case estimate. I leave it as an exercise for the reader to plug in the figures for a 70% infection rate, and/or a 3% fatality rate, and see how that goes. Plus of course, it could be all crammed into fewer than 12 months. I don't think many people are understanding that this is what is going to happen.

Your math looks right to me. However, I would add that in addition to those who will die of the virus others will die becuase of it. These are the people who will not recieve care as the system is overburdened and forced to focus on the virus due to the emergency. People needing treatment for noncommunicable diseases risk not getting the care they need and no doubt some will die. I have no idea how statistically high this would be and of course it is determined by how flat that curve gets.

The bright side is if the virus does slow in hot weather (we have seen some indications that it will not) or if a vaccine can be found early and rushed through due to humanitarian exceptions to the normal process.

NDPP

Cuban Drug Could Save Thousands of Lives in Coronavirus Pandemic

https://morningstaronline.co.uk/article/cuban-drug-could-save-thousands-...

"Cuban medicine could treat thousands of coronavirus patients as production of a 'flagship' drug known to combat the disease is set to increase significantly pharmaceutical bosses said at a press conference on Friday..."

"Cuba: We have an antiviral with demonstrably high success rates in treating patients with COVID-19. China: Our studies show this Cuban drug has incredibly high success rates. US: If only WE could find a treatment, someone in the PRIVATE SECTOR needs to find a *PATENTABLE *treatment*."

https://twitter.com/BriteRedOctober/status/1239657436140777473

**Why we will never see or hear of this drug being investigated or used here.

NDPP

"All Canadians should listen to this CNN clip about the horrifying trajectory of COVID19 in the US and the indifference of so many Americans to this grave threat. How can Justin Trudeau justify exempting Americans from the closure of our border?"

https://twitter.com/dimitrilascaris/status/1240080171585228805

 

Thankfully, but at the US initiative this:

US and Canada Preparing to Suspend Non-Essential Travel

https://twitter.com/cnni/status/1240100037985796108

"The US and Canada are preparing to issue a joint statement in the next 24-48 hours to suspend non-essential travel between the two countries, a Trump administration official says..."

lagatta4

I think the European union has done something similar; shipping (truck, rail, ship) will go on but no other travel. NDPP, I'm no Freeland fan by any means, but why do you keep bringing up that her grandfather was a Ukranian Nazi? She is not responsible for any evil deeds caused by a dead relative.

lagatta4

A (disturbing) report from the epicentre of the crisis in Italy.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rfkbv_WQtn0

Paladin1

Pondering wrote:

 I am no fan of Trudeau these days but he is being criticized for following the advice of the WHO.  I considered them the authority on how we should react. 

Maybe going forward people will look a little deeper at the advice coming out of the WHO. Pretty clear they shit the bed.

"But China lied". Of course they did. The WHO should have expected they were lying and developed a plan based off worst case senario.  They did a 180 from not a big deal to world wide disaster pretty much over night. The experts should have seen this coming way before.

Paladin1

NDPP wrote:

I find Michael's extrapolations unfortunately all too sound and must also agree few appreciate the magnitude of what is to come. Except insiders like Trudeau, Hajdu, Freeland et al who will never tell us nor take the strongest necessary measures now to mitigate the carnage to come.

Will Canadians accept measures like these?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SLirQXbJrNA

Video of Chinese residents being dragged from their homes by people in Hazmat suits.

 

What about the Canadian government enacting the Emergency Act and armed soldiers stand guard at grocery stores to physically enforce neat and orderly lines to prevent looting from panicked citizens?

We're a society built on "my individual rights supercede everything". How are we going to react to the government esentially triaging our individual rights?

Michael Moriarity Michael Moriarity's picture

Paladin1 wrote:

We're a society built on "my individual rights supercede everything". How are we going to react to the government esentially triaging our individual rights?

No, that's the U.S. Canada is founded on "peace, order and good government", which may very well outweigh individual rights in many cases.

NDPP

Coronavirus Is Our Future: Alanna Shaikh

https://youtu.be/Fqw-9yMV0sI

"Global Health expert Alanna Shaikh talks about the current status of the 2019 nCov coronavirus outbreak and what this can teach us about the epidemics yet to come..."

'First, they kill the poor people...'

Pondering

kropotkin1951 wrote:

Thanks Pondering for explaining, after reading multiple news sites controlled by oligarchs, that governments all around the globe have failed us and we should all put our faith in corporations and CEO's.

Don't lie about what I say. It is ignorant. I expect better behavior from men who claim to be progressive. 

The WHO failed us. The government of China failed us. Our governments failed us. I was shocked when I read polls indicating that corporations and CEOs are more trusted than politicians. I am very cynical about the motives of corporations and I do not claim they are acting altruistically but at least some are stepping up.

NDPP

AI Canada: Distant But Together - Action in the Time of COVID-19

https://www.amnesty.ca/blog/distant-together-activism-time-covid-19

"As news and cases of coronavirus spread around the world, so do racism and xenophobia. We all must speak out and act against racist and xenophobic remarks and policies, especially as state responses escalate. While many of us will retreat into our homes to help stop the transmission of the virus, we must remember the outside world..."

 

jerrym

The latest predictions on the number of deaths or the length of time drastic actions are needed to overcome the virus are far from cheery with quarantines for the entire population lasting 12-18 months to cut the deaths to the lowest possible numbers for people in general. 
 

[H]is [UK PM Boris Johnson] aides hustled reporters into a second, off-camera briefing. That session presented jaw-dropping numbers from some of Britain’s top modelers of infectious disease, who predicted the deadly course of the coronavirus could quickly kill hundreds of thousands in both the United Kingdom and the United States, as surges of sick and dying patients overwhelmed hospitals and critical care units. ...

The Imperial College London group reported that if nothing was done by governments and individuals and the pandemic remained uncontrolled, 510,000 would die in Britain and 2.2 million in the United States over the course of the outbreak.

These kinds of numbers are deeply concerning for countries with top-drawer health-care systems. They are terrifying for less-developed countries, global health experts say.

If Britain and the United States pursued more-ambitious measures to mitigate the spread of the coronavirus, to slow but not necessarily stop the epidemic over the coming few months, they could reduce mortality by half, to 260,000 people in the United Kingdom and 1.1 million in the United States. 

Finally, if the British government quickly went all-out to suppress viral spread — aiming to reverse epidemic growth and reduce the case load to a low level — then the number of dead in the country could drop to below 20,000. To do this, the researchers said, Britain would have to enforce social distancing for the entire population, isolate all cases, demand quarantines of entire households where anyone is sick, and close all schools and universities — and do this not for weeks but for 12 to 18 months, until a vaccine is available.
 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world...512_story.html

NDPP

Elderly Londoner on Coronavirus in UK (and vid)

https://twitter.com/DrJamesKent3/status/1239534336996761609

 

DW Documentary: Coronavirus in China

https://youtu.be/3K3fy5eKeuM

"For weeks now China has been in lockdown because of the new coronavirus. Journalist Sebastien Le Belzic who works in Beijing has been living in quarantine at home with his family..."

jerrym

Of course all models are based on assumptions. Looking at history for possible scenarios provides us with a range of possibilities. 
 

There is also a question as to how the coronavirus will behave in the long term. It might be seasonal, abating with warmer weather.

It might act like the Zika virus, a mosquito-borne illness that causes birth defects. For much of 2016, it devastated communities in South America and Southeast Asia. But for the past three years, there have been few cases.

It might act like the 2009 swine flu pandemic, which infected millions and caused more than 10,000 deaths. But now that virus is just part of our annual flu cycle, according to Andrew Pekosz, a professor of microbiology at the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health.

Or it might be like the 1918 Spanish fluthought to be the deadliest in human history. That disease, which killed at least 50 million people worldwide (the equivalent of 200 million today), came in three waves. The second, which came in fall 1918, was by far the most deadly.

Although much is still unknown about the timeline of the coronavirus outbreak, most experts agree: China and South Korea are on a downswing after aggressive testing and quarantine measures. The rest of the world would do well to follow suit.

“China showed us what it looked like to be able to act to stop it,” Dr. Bar-Yam said. “They’ve stopped it. We have to choose whether we’re going to do that.”

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/16/h...shut-down.html

Aristotleded24

jerrym wrote:
The latest predictions on the number of deaths or the length of time drastic actions are needed to overcome the virus are far from cheery with quarantines for the entire population lasting 12-18 months to cut the deaths to the lowest possible numbers for people in general. 
 

[H]is [UK PM Boris Johnson] aides hustled reporters into a second, off-camera briefing. That session presented jaw-dropping numbers from some of Britain’s top modelers of infectious disease, who predicted the deadly course of the coronavirus could quickly kill hundreds of thousands in both the United Kingdom and the United States, as surges of sick and dying patients overwhelmed hospitals and critical care units. ...

The Imperial College London group reported that if nothing was done by governments and individuals and the pandemic remained uncontrolled, 510,000 would die in Britain and 2.2 million in the United States over the course of the outbreak.

These kinds of numbers are deeply concerning for countries with top-drawer health-care systems. They are terrifying for less-developed countries, global health experts say.

If Britain and the United States pursued more-ambitious measures to mitigate the spread of the coronavirus, to slow but not necessarily stop the epidemic over the coming few months, they could reduce mortality by half, to 260,000 people in the United Kingdom and 1.1 million in the United States. 

Finally, if the British government quickly went all-out to suppress viral spread — aiming to reverse epidemic growth and reduce the case load to a low level — then the number of dead in the country could drop to below 20,000. To do this, the researchers said, Britain would have to enforce social distancing for the entire population, isolate all cases, demand quarantines of entire households where anyone is sick, and close all schools and universities — and do this not for weeks but for 12 to 18 months, until a vaccine is available.
 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world...512_story.html

Many closures that I've seen in Manitoba said they will be closed for about 3 weeks. Are you suggesting that this is unrealistic? Would it be better to say of everything (school, church services, etc) closed until further notice?

contrarianna

Doing the the math correctly does not necessarily get real fatality ratios since the data collection is still hugely skewed to testing of the manifestly sick.
An interesting illustration of this is the micro-community of the Diamond Princess cruise ship where nearly everyone was tested:

Cruise ship outbreak helps pin down how deadly the new coronavirus is
Outcomes suggest that, in the real world, about 0.5 percent of COVID-19 infections in China end in death.

Exactly how deadly COVID-19 is remains up in the air. Limited testing and undetected cases — people with no symptoms or ones so mild they don’t seek medical attention — make it hard to pin down how many are infected. And that number is crucial for calculating the ratio of people who may die from COVID-19.

Enter the Diamond Princess cruise ship. Quarantined at sea off Japan after a passenger tested positive for SARS-CoV-2, the ship became a natural data lab where nearly everyone was tested and few cases of infection were missed.

Infections and deaths onboard suggest that the disease’s true fatality ratio in China is about 0.5 percent, though that number may vary from place to place, researchers report March 9 in a paper posted at MedRxiv.org. ...

https://www.sciencenews.org/article/coronavirus-outbreak-diamond-princes...

The extrapolated death rate was corrected based on the fact that most of the people were elderly. Although the 3,711 sample size was not huge and therefore not terribly definitive, what surprised me most was the number of older people infected who were asymptomatic. For example of those infected:
Age 50-59  Symptoms 28  Asymptomatic 31
Age 60 - 69    Sympt 76 Asympt 101
Age 70 - 79  Sympt 95 Asympt 139
Age 80 - 89  Sympt 29  Asympt 25

The death rate of elderly is still very high despite the lower number and this certainly does not mean that any of the measures to flatten the curve to reduce a crush on the health system are unwarranted. What it does mean is that there are alreadly many more cases out there than reported and that infection spread from asymptomatic people may be a greater problem than some assume.
 
A pdf of the study "Estimating the infection and case fatality ratio for COVID-19 using age-adjusted data from the outbreak on the Diamond Princess cruise ship" is available for download here:
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.05.20031773v2

NDPP

CTV: Canadian Coronavirus Coverage and Updates:

https://www.ctvnews.ca/health/coronavirus/

 

US Official: Some Coronavirus Infections in Millennials Can Be Severe

https://twitter.com/HelenBranswell/status/1240329051555971073

"Preliminary data from Europe shows younger people, not just older individuals and those with underlying health conditions can get very sick as well..."

 

New Coronavirus Can Survive On Some Surfaces For Days: Studay

https://twitter.com/CTVNews/status/1240333538748182528

"The novel coronavirus can survive on some surfaces for days or in the air for several hours, according to a US-government funded study published Tuesday..."

 

NDPP

SABC: Iran Battles COVID-19

https://youtu.be/EZFZ_x-X2d0

 Biggest one-day death toll (1,000) as crisis intensifies. US sanctions a major factor...

 

"Sadistic. The new US sanctions can only be interpreted as an attempt to spread COVID-19 in Iran. The Trump regime [and Israel] seeks an uncontrollable situation where COVID overwhelms Iran's health system and hospitals. The silence of western reporters, pundits, media and governments is evil."

https://twitter.com/s_m_marandi/status/1240161451198820352

 

"Stepping up Iran and Venezuela sanctions, bombing Iraq and a full day of Primary Election cheating: COVID2019 did not pause the empire yesterday."

https://twitter.com/justinpodur/status/1240299367506104320

NDPP

Dr John Campbell, Coronavirus Update, Wed, 18th March, 2020

https://youtu.be/urPjrPBKZy4

"China: 13 new infections.."

NDPP

 Late Stage Imperial Omni-Crisis: Death By Virus and Internal Contradictions

https://www.blackagendareport.com/late-stage-imperial-omni-crisis-death-...

"The nation that considers itself to be the apex of capitalist achievement on planet Earth turns out to have no health care system worthy of the name - a testament to the sucking moral vacuum at America's imperial, white settler colony core. A lowly virus - a form of being that exists at the very border between 'life' and 'not life' - has revealed the world's superpower as butt-naked and very much afraid. 'The sytem is failing. Let's admit it,' said Dr Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, on March 14 at a White House briefing..."

 

Canada's Health System is Unprepared For the COVID-19 Pandemic

https://buff.ly/2wcKyL8

"...This column is not an attempt to gain sympathy, nor is it advice related to a personal story. I am simply using my own particular experience as an analytical standpoint to identify structural concerns in addressing the issue. The experience I described shows that Canada is unprepared for the COVID-19 pandemic. If public health lines are swamped with 300 cases in Ontario, imagine how things will look when we hit a thousand cases, let alone many thousands.

Test kits are similarly scarce...Lack of test kits is a structural problem and one that Canada could have avoided if it had been taking things more seriously beginning in December. After all, it had three months to prepare."

NDPP

Keiser Report: Looking Very 1929

https://youtu.be/yXT_ZaHwGhE

"In this episode of Keiser Report, Max and Stacy discuss the ongoing stock-market crash and subsequent historic rallies rhyming a whole lot like the 1929 crash. Will a Great Depression follow? And after the crash? What will happen to the standing of the US when it is China coming to the rescue of Italy, France and Spain with medical supplies airlifted in to help them through COVID-19...?

NDPP

A Survey of COVID-19 Emergency Funds

https://aptnnews.ca/2020/03/18/a-summary-of-covid-19-emergency-funds/

APTN is reporting from across the country on the viral outbreak and how it is impacting Indigenous communities. For more information click here...

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau's government will provide $27 billion in direct support to Canadian workers and businesses to help them get through the economic crisis sparked by the global outbreak of the novel coronavirus. There will also be $55 billion to help Canadians meet liquidity needs through tax deferrals. The following list is a summary of some of the financial relief measures. For more information on how to apply click here..."

Aristotleded24

It's a small improvement in a situation that is overall quite bad, but:

Only 2 new cases in Manitoba today.

Let's hope we can keep the numbers down and that this starts turning around soon.

Misfit Misfit's picture

When do they expect vaccines to be on the market for this?

Aristotleded24

As far as I know, they are already developing clinical trials for them, but there are reports that actual vaccines availble for mass distribution won't be available for at least a year. Personally, I wouldn't hold out hope for a vaccine at this point because it takes time to properly assess the efficacy and risk of a vaccine, and as bad as covid is right now, I wouldn't want to take the risk of a new vaccine before that has all been carefully explored.

JKR
jerrym

Aristotleded24 wrote:

jerrym wrote:
The latest predictions on the number of deaths or the length of time drastic actions are needed to overcome the virus are far from cheery with quarantines for the entire population lasting 12-18 months to cut the deaths to the lowest possible numbers for people in general. 
 

[H]is [UK PM Boris Johnson] aides hustled reporters into a second, off-camera briefing. That session presented jaw-dropping numbers from some of Britain’s top modelers of infectious disease, who predicted the deadly course of the coronavirus could quickly kill hundreds of thousands in both the United Kingdom and the United States, as surges of sick and dying patients overwhelmed hospitals and critical care units. ...

The Imperial College London group reported that if nothing was done by governments and individuals and the pandemic remained uncontrolled, 510,000 would die in Britain and 2.2 million in the United States over the course of the outbreak.

These kinds of numbers are deeply concerning for countries with top-drawer health-care systems. They are terrifying for less-developed countries, global health experts say.

If Britain and the United States pursued more-ambitious measures to mitigate the spread of the coronavirus, to slow but not necessarily stop the epidemic over the coming few months, they could reduce mortality by half, to 260,000 people in the United Kingdom and 1.1 million in the United States. 

Finally, if the British government quickly went all-out to suppress viral spread — aiming to reverse epidemic growth and reduce the case load to a low level — then the number of dead in the country could drop to below 20,000. To do this, the researchers said, Britain would have to enforce social distancing for the entire population, isolate all cases, demand quarantines of entire households where anyone is sick, and close all schools and universities — and do this not for weeks but for 12 to 18 months, until a vaccine is available.
 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world...512_story.html

Many closures that I've seen in Manitoba said they will be closed for about 3 weeks. Are you suggesting that this is unrealistic? Would it be better to say of everything (school, church services, etc) closed until further notice?

Most predictions are at least as long as the time it took the Chinese to get the disease under control under a strict authoritarian enforcement that would be difficult to implement here. Some also wonder if there will be another outbreak in China as it now starts to relax its strict measures.

Furthermore, a different problem has risen for some of those who do fully recover - long-term damage to their lungs. 

 People who recover after being infected with the novel coronavirus can still be left with substantially weakened lung capacity, with some left gasping for air when walking quickly, doctors in Hong Kong have found.

The Hong Kong Hospital Authority made the findings after studying the first wave of patients who were discharged from the hospital and had fully recovered from COVID-19.

Out of 12 people in the group, two to three saw changes in their lung capacity.

"They gasp if they walk a bit more quickly," Owen Tsang Tak-yin, the medical director of the authority's Infectious Disease Centre, told a press conference Thursday, according to the South China Morning Post.

"Some patients might have around a drop of 20 to 30% in lung function" after full recovery, he said.

Tsang added, however, that patients can do cardiovascular exercises, like swimming, the improve their lung capacity over time.

While it's too early to establish long-term effects of the disease, scans of nine patients' lungs also "found patterns similar to frosted glass in all of them, suggesting there was organ damage," Tsang said, according to the Post.

Current coronavirus patients' CT scans show "ground glass," a phenomenon in which fluid builds up in lungs and presents itself as white patches, as Business Insider's Aria Bendix has reported. The scans below, taken from one coronavirus patient at different points in time, show that the person's "ground glass" became more pronounced as their illness progressed.

Screen Shot 2020 03 13 at 2.15.40 pm

https://www.sciencealert.com/even-those-who-recover-from-corona-can-be-l...

Aristotleded24

Nationwide, new cases have dropped slightly from May 17. I know it's too soon, but are we starting to turn the corner?

NDPP

Corona Saves The World!

https://youtu.be/NyE0g4f-8eE

"Maybe the Coronavirus is just the answer to Turbo Capitalism?"

Sean in Ottawa

Aristotleded24 wrote:

Nationwide, new cases have dropped slightly from May 17. I know it's too soon, but are we starting to turn the corner?

Unfortunatley the issue is mostly likely that Ontario test results are delayed by 4-6 days right now. When these catch up you will find it a different story. The material for test kits is in short supply, tests are being rationed and results are coming extremely slowly.

No -- we are unfortunately a long way from turnign the corner.

What is happening is that governments of all parties are taking this seriously and governments in Canada seem to be doing mostly a decent job now after delays at the start. I think there is a sense across party lines that the population wants, needs, expects governments to rise to this.

Our system is over-burdened but there is a sense of increased awareness of the need to be careful and to support each other.

NDPP

Canadian Government's Coronavirus Response: Tens of Billions For Business, A Pittance For Healthcare and Workers

https://www.wsws.org/en/articles/2020/03/19/caco-m19.html

"...While no effort is being spared to safeguard the interests of the corporate elite, the government's measures to strengthen Canada's dilapidated and over-crowded healthcare system to combat the pandemic have been paltry and dilatory. The delay in mobilizing resources to fight the spread of the pandemic, including the organization of systematic testing is proving disastrous. According to data available on the Public Health Canada website some 20 percent of all COVID-19 cases as of Tuesday resulted from community transition, underscoring that the authorities have failed to contain the disease.

According to Michael Warner, medical director of critical care at the Michael Garron Hospital in Toronto's east end, the emergency measures announced in recent days by provincial and federal governments haven't gone far enough to halt community transition. Warner said his department is preparing for 'combat medicine' and warned that frontline physicians fear that Toronto is heading for a situation like northern Italy.

The Globe and Mail reported last week that a ventilator, which can save the life of a seriously ill COVID-19 patient by helping them breathe, costs just $10,000. Canada could have purchased 1,000 ventilators for a mere $10 million - a drop in the bucket compared to the billions showered on the corporations with no strings attached..."

Hence the relentless briefings by Freeland, Trudeau and Tam et al to act as a false front on the vacant lot of actual Canadian preparedness.

 

Coronavius: If Only We'd Known...(and vid)

https://twitter.com/robinskyleigh/status/1240000298929680384

 

WATCH: Coronavirus Capitalism: And How To Beat It

https://t.co/z4DE4nYubf

"Governments around the world are busily exploiting the coronavirus crisis to push for no-strings-attached corporate bailouts and regulation rollabacks. This video from Naomi Klein and the Intercept is about the ways the still unfolding COVID-19 crisis is already reinventing our sense of the possible..."

 

Aristotleded24

Sean in Ottawa wrote:

Aristotleded24 wrote:

Nationwide, new cases have dropped slightly from May 17. I know it's too soon, but are we starting to turn the corner?

Unfortunatley the issue is mostly likely that Ontario test results are delayed by 4-6 days right now. When these catch up you will find it a different story. The material for test kits is in short supply, tests are being rationed and results are coming extremely slowly.

No -- we are unfortunately a long way from turnign the corner.

What is happening is that governments of all parties are taking this seriously and governments in Canada seem to be doing mostly a decent job now after delays at the start. I think there is a sense across party lines that the population wants, needs, expects governments to rise to this.

Our system is over-burdened but there is a sense of increased awareness of the need to be careful and to support each other.

Another drastic drop for new cases today nationwide, with no new cases in Manitoba reported at this time.

This post is quite scary, but I still hope that these numbers are actually showing good news.

Pondering

This is the beginning not the end. If we can control it well enough that people don't die from lack of respirators we will be doing very well. 

Remember this is just tested cases and the testing is way behind. 

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

It can be sorted by total cases, new cases, total deaths, new deaths, total recovered, active cases, critical cases and total cases per million,

Right now per million is

  • Canada 21
  • USA 35
  • UK 48
  • Italy 679
  • China 56

It arrived in Canada later so we may catch up, hopefully not to Italy.

Deaths: Canada, 10  USA 171

USA is roughly 9 times that of Canada so if we were even Canada would have 90 deaths. We may well catch up to the US but if the Canadian system holds up better Americans are going to be pissed. 

 

Douglas Fir Premier

Sean in Ottawa wrote:

Unfortunatley the issue is mostly likely that Ontario test results are delayed by 4-6 days right now. When these catch up you will find it a different story. The material for test kits is in short supply, tests are being rationed and results are coming extremely slowly.

Sean's correct, unfortunately. Just this morning, Ottawa's Medical Officer of Health went on the radio and stated, "there might be over a couple of thousand now, it’s possible, based on what we know". That was just her speculation for the city of Ottawa.

eastnoireast

personally, i'm really looking forward to receiving my manditory injections of rushed and poorly-tested corporate vaccines.

NDPP

 A Message From Ahnult: 'Stay.At.Home. That Means You Too Spring Breakers.'

 

https://twitter.com/Schwarzenegger/status/1240418674491543552

https://twitter.com/Jay_D007/status/1240757402242371584

NDPP

Dr John Campbell, Thursday, 19th March, Update

https://youtu.be/C-0Es0RKiU4

"We believe people who have had this infection will be immune..."

NDPP

Global National: March 19, 2020 - Officials Stresss Social-Distancing on COVID-19, as Case Count Rises

https://youtu.be/cONCrK882zo

"One day after PM Justin Trudeau announced the Canada-US border would ban all non-essential travel to control the spread of COVID-19 officials on both sides are still negotiating the terms of the agreement."

 

Corona Outbreak: Dr Bonnie Henry and Adrian Dix Answer Your COVID-19 Questions

https://youtu.be/ZqOqNhp5n5s

"At least a third of Canadians will catch COVID-19 and at least 1% of them (114,000) will die."

 

 

 

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