French presidential vote - they're off and running!

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Fidel

Observateur wrote:
Commentary : France already has a tax burden of the highest in developed countries. With Mélenchon, it would exceed 50% to a record.

With French federal tax revs at 42% of GDP, they would already be considered a socialist country by Ottawa's standards.

And the Euro could fail at some point in the future. Neoliberal ideology for borrowing money to service debt is a fool's errand. Shrinking economies by austerity will only exacerbate the problem for debt-driven loans issued by wreckless bank lenders to their wreckless bank borrowers. It's economic warfare.

If Mélenchon really wants a socialist economy in France, then he should be proposing some percentage of government-created money and to hell with Euro banksters and their friends on Wall Street.

DaveW

M. Spector wrote:

In other words, "France is poor: we can't afford socialism."
Bullshit.


uh no, just that France tried what Melenchon is proposing back in 1981, it blew the national budget... Why repeat the scenario? in any case, the likely winner and Nouvel Obs favourite: F.Hollande = Brian Topp without all the charisma? http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2012/apr/18/francois-hollande-sarkozy-nemesis

M. Spector M. Spector's picture

DaveW wrote:

uh no, just that France tried what Melenchon is proposing back in 1981, it blew the national budget... Why repeat the scenario?

I'm missing the nuance here. How exactly is that different from "France is poor; we can't afford socialism"?

Fidel

M. Spector wrote:

DaveW wrote:

uh no, just that France tried what Melenchon is proposing back in 1981, it blew the national budget... Why repeat the scenario?

I'm missing the nuance here. How exactly is that different from "France is poor; we can't afford socialism"?

 

I think Hollande is saying that France can't afford more socialism than they have now. 

We're talking about France as opposed to, say, the very ideologically-driven neoliberal countries of Canada, or the USA as depicted in Michael Moore's film, Sicko.

When students protest in France, it's not typically to oppose Quebec government style proposed tuition increases of 75%. And which government in the U.S. or Canada has ever offered to do your laundry or send a nanny to help with your newborn? Let's be serious for a moment about actually existing social democracy in France compared to Canada and U.S. where social spending has been under attack by right wing ideologues for decades.

knownothing knownothing's picture
DaveW

 

French polls now open in overseas polling places, ie Montreal and St Pierre et Miquelon:

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/04/21/world/europe/in-france-the-fringe-emer...

NDPP

GEAB No. 64: The Big Republican Earthquake and its International Impact

http://www.leap2020.eu/GEAB-N-64-is-available-Global-systemic-crisis-Fra...

"Indeed, for our team, Francois Hollande's victory will start a series of strategic upheavals which will greatly affect Europe and will significantly accelerate the geopolitical changes in progress on a world level since the beginning of the global crisis in 2008. Therein, the results and consequences of the French presidential election are more important than those of the next American presidential election in November 2012.."

nicky

Can someone suggest a couple good internet sites on which to watch the French election returns?

KenS

In English, my guess is that you can't do better and quicker than BBC.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world/europe/

 

Even if your reading French is very good, French sites are going to have analyis that assumes a pretty high level of understanding the peculiar nuances of French politics. For myself, I miss a lot if there are assumptions the reader knows any more than who the players are. And I follow French politics somewhat.

Doug
NDPP

nicky wrote:

Can someone suggest a couple good internet sites on which to watch the French election returns?

NDPP

www.france24.com/en/

Doug

Now with actual results coming in, perhaps the polling wasn't quite right at least as concerns two minor candidates. Marine LePen is doing better than expected and Jean-Luc Melanchon doing less well than expected.

NDPP

Hollande Wins First Round, Sets Up Run-Off With Sarkozy

http://www.france24.com/en/20120422-socialist-hollande-advance-runoff-fr...

"Socialist presidential challenger Francois Hollande topped the first round of France's presidential election on Sunday with 28.4 percent of votes, while incumbent Nicolas Sarkozy finished second with 25.5 percent, according to exit polls. Exit polls announced at 8 PM showed Marine Le Pen, leader of the far right National Front party had conquered third place with 20%. Far left candidate Jean Luc Melenchon took 11.5 % and centrist Francois Byrou 8.5%, the Ipso polling agency said..."

josh

She's running under 19% now. Melanchon at 11%. Hollande leading Sarkozy 28-27.

http://translate.google.com/translate?hl=en&sl=fr&u=http://www.lemonde.f...

DaveW

 

Hollande-Sarkozy 1-2 as expected,

but Le Pen & FN  stronger than ever in 1st round, Melenchon slips back in relation to pre-vote polls:

http://actu.orange.fr/monde/france-hollande-prend-une-option-sur-la-victoire-l-extreme-droite-en-force-afp_576824.htm

 

Jean-Luc Mélenchon recueille les fruits d'une campagne très réussie, même si son score peut être considéré comme décevant au regard des sondages d'avant l'élection. Il est très loin de la troisième place qu'il lorgnait. Il a immédiatement appelé à faire battre le président sortant. "Notre peuple paraît bien déterminé à tourner la page des années Nicolas Sarkozy", a-t-il estimé.

Google:

Jean-Luc Melenchon reaps the rewards of a successful campaign, even if his score can be considered disappointing in terms of polls before the election. It is very far from the third place he was approaching. He immediately called to beat the incumbent. "Our people seem determined to turn the page of the Nicolas Sarkozy years," he said.  

josh

Melanchon probably lost votes to Le Pen in the end. For some working class voters, class consciousness is nice, but racism is beter.

DaveW

view from US:
http://www.nytimes.com/2012/04/23/world/europe/french-go-to-polls-in-closely-watched-presidential-race.html?_r=1&ref=global-home

 

The race for third place, meanwhile, seemed to presage a second round that would be tighter than many opinion polls before the vote had suggested. Marine Le Pen of the far-right National Front finished with an estimated 19.9 percent, above most recent polls and well ahead of Jean-Luc Mélenchon, the candidate of the far-left Front de Gauche, who fared far worse than expected with about 11 percent.

Polling agencies gave slightly different early figures, but the same finishing order for the top four candidates.

Voter turnout was about 80 percent of the 44.5 million registered voters, down from the 84 percent who participated in the last presidential ballot five years ago, which was the highest turnout since 1974.

 

josh

That's a pretty pathetic analysis from the Times. It was premature, and assumes, wrongly, that Le Pen voters are Sarkozy voters.

adma

Indeed, Lepenistes are more of a populist free-for-all akin to, I suppose, certain aspects of Ford Nation in Toronto.

And also like Ford Nation (which may explain the higher vote this time), I believe that Marine's been more assiduous than her father in assembling a modernized "grand coalition" on her behalf--including, I guess, a bit of an "anti-immigrant immigrant" demographic around the edges...

 

NorthReport

Just like WR gives the PCs credibility in Alberta, Le Pen give Sarkozy credibility in France. WTF!

Nice little right-wing shill games going on here.

And boo, hoo 'bout the stock markets.

Hollande victory could impact US markets this week

http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5hDb1WpC3gy9aCxKdZisOc0...

takeitslowly

regardless, LE PEN got alot of votes and thats disappointing.

Ken Burch

I found myself wondering if there was any chance at all that Sarkozy's supporters would have cast "anti-fascist" votes for Hollande if, as could have happened, Ms. Le Pen had made it into the runoff and Sarko had fallen to third(as the Left cast such votes for Chirac against Le Pen's father fourteen years ago).

I'm guessing that, rather than that, the French and American MSM would have suddenly run tons of puff pieces about "the NEW Le Pen"(transforming her into the 1968 Nixon of French politics).

And it was predictable, yet still sickening, that the MSM kept pushing the "Melenchon and Le Pen are BOTH 'Extremists' " meme, as if fighting for the 1981 Common Program of the French Left was no different at all from demonizing immigrants, Muslims(and, covertly yet just barely covertly, demonizing Jews as well).  It's sort of like arguing that Gandhi and Rambo BOTH have extreme views about violence.

Ken Burch

josh wrote:
Melanchon probably lost votes to Le Pen in the end. For some working class voters, class consciousness is nice, but racism is beter.

Hopefully, Le Front Gauche will not respond to this result by embracing aspects of an anti-immigrant program(In the way that the old PCF disgraced itself in the late Seventies by embracing racist rhetoric on immigration). 

NorthReport

Happy to see this - thanks Brian.

Why François Hollande won the first round against Nicolas Sarkozy

 

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/second-reading/brian-topp/w...

DaveW

 

Hollande is like Topp, but in many ways so was Lionel Jospin, a quietly competent PM from 1997-2002 and much underappreciated;

voters kicked him in 2002 out as soon as the dramatic fall (-30%) in unemployment started to level off... sic transit gloria

Ken Burch

DaveW wrote:

 

centre-left beacon the Nouvel Observateur, largest circulation newsweekly in France and unofficial mouthpiece of the Socialist Party,

highlights the differences between their social-democratic vision and that of Left-of-left Melenchon:

 http://tempsreel.nouvelobs.com/laurent-joffrin/20120412.OBS6061/melenchon-et-nous.html

 In short, beyond the ideological objections, the question of funding:

[....]

Nous avons enfin exprimé des désaccords sur le programme présenté par Jean-Luc Mélenchon. Outre son financement incertain, nous avons remarqué qu'il rappelait, à beaucoup d'égards, le programme de la gauche en 1981. Voilà une critique pour le moins modérée dans un journal qui a accueilli avec joie l'élection de François Mitterrand... Beaucoup des intentions exprimées par Mélenchon sont louables, nous l'avons écrit, mais le programme de 1981, dont l'application a laissé de grands acquis pour la République, s'est aussi heurté, on le sait, à de graves difficultés financières qui ont obligé le gouvernement d'alors - où figuraient quatre ministres communistes, qui n'ont pas démissionné pour autant - à opérer le "tournant de la rigueur". Nous craignons que les mesures Mélenchon de 2012 n'obligent un gouvernement de gauche, si elles étaient appliquées, au même retour en arrière. Voilà tout. Nulle insulte dans cette interrogation, nul manque de respect. Un débat sérieux et utile, tout au plus. C'est de toute évidence ce que Jean-Luc Mélenchon, tout à son ubris électoral, n'aime pas.

  

[via Google translate]

.... Finally, we have expressed disagreement over the program presented by Jean-Luc Melenchon. In addition to its uncertain funding, we noticed that it recalled, in many respects, the program of the united Left in 1981. This is a moderate criticism in a magazine that welcomed with joy the election of François Mitterrand ... Many of the intentions expressed by Mélenchon are laudable, we wrote, but the 1981 program, whose implementation left some great achievements for the Republic, was also hit, as we know, by serious financial difficulties which forced the then government - which included four Communist ministers, who we recall did not resign - to carry out the austerity "shift to rigour" [in 1983].

We fear that the measures Mélenchon proposes in 2012 would require a leftist government, if implemented, to make the same U-turn. That's all. No insult in this question, no disrespect. A serious and useful debate, at most. But this is obviously what Jean-Luc Melenchon, given his election hubris, does not like.

 

The way to avoid making such a u-turn is to incorporate extra-parliamentary supporters and activists to defend the mandate for change.  If Mitterrand had done that in 1983(just as if Bob Rae had done that in 1993 in Ontario)the great climb down would never have to have happened.  What we found out in BOTH situations was that, in the end, neither Mitterrand nor Rae had ANY core convictions whatsoever.

If you settle for just slight change, as Hollande does, you make victory meaningless.  Nothing that Mitterrand did after 1983, and nothing his party did after that, mattered.  Accepting fiscal conservatism and embracing the cold war meant giving up on doing anything that helped much of anybody.  I mean, it's nice that they got rid of the guillotine, but, really, that was a side issue.  It didn't help the workers or the poor, and neither did adopting a foreign policy that was even MORE obsessed with fighting the Soviet Union than Reagan's was.

josh

DaveW wrote:

Marine Le Pen of the far-right National Front finished with an estimated 19.9 percent

She ended up 2 points short of that.

duncan cameron

My take on how the Eurozone issues divide the right and the left in France.

http://rabble.ca/columnists/2012/04/europe-counts-french-elections

NorthReport

Sweet!

France: Today’s Sarkozy flameout update

http://www2.macleans.ca/2012/04/25/france-todays-sarkozy-flameout-update/

DaveW

 

investigative magazine says Libya accepted to finance Sarkozy in 2007:
http://www.mediapart.fr/journal/international/280412/sarkozy-kadhafi-la-preuve-du-financement

 

 

 

M. Spector M. Spector's picture

[url=http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2012/apr/27/french-resistance-le... French resistance is only just beginning[/url]
by Jean-Luc Mélenchon

Quote:
For the first time in more than 30 years, a new French political force - not only to the left of the Socialists, but also unafraid to assert itself as an alternative to them - scored double figures in a presidential election: 11.1%, climbing to 16% in large cities. This achievement of the Front de Gauche (Left Front) represents the most recent and the strongest success of the "other left" in Europe.

After too many years of fragmentation, the Front de Gauche has managed to unify the leftist forces that advocate social and environmental transformation. Now we must make sure that Nicolas Sarkozy is ousted from the Elysée with a crushing defeat in the second round of the presidential election on 6 May. The French people and the labour movement will have a lot to lose if the radicalised right - which, moreover, is after the extreme right's votes - monopolises state power. This is our first and most urgent mission.

[b]But this short-term objective should not be confused in any way with support for the Socialist party's candidate or his programme. François Hollande's policies are designed, with some exceptions, to meet the requirements of financial markets and the "golden" balanced budget rule of the European fiscal pact[/b] - which he refuses to put to a popular referendum.

NDPP

Gaddafi Agreed to Fund Sarkozy Campaign

http://presstv.com/detail/238597.html

"A new document has revealed that the election campaign of French President Nicolas Sarkozy in 2007 was to be funded by former Libyan dictator Muammar Gaddafi.."

And was. Sarkozy then had his creditors whacked courtesy of NATO. I wondered if/when this might pop up. More troubles for 'Monsieur Mossad',  Sarko l' americain..

NorthReport

So with one more week to go Sarkozy has been making all the wrong moves during the two week run-off period and Hollande's lead appears to be solidifying.

 

 

Sarkozy swings further right, Hollande holds lead

 

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/04/26/france-election-idUSL6E8FQ4WA2...

 

Sarkozy is on course to become the first French president to lose a bid for re-election in more than 30 years, in part because of the sputtering economy. The number of jobless rose for the 11th straight month in March to 2.88 million, up 7.2 percent in a year.

The latest opinion polls, published 10 days before the decisive ballot, suggested Sarkozy's strategy of courting the 6.4 million electors who voted for far-right candidate Marine Le Pen in last Sunday's first round was making scant impact.

The TNS-Sofres poll showed Hollande, who won Sunday's first round ahead of Sarkozy, holding a 10-point lead with 55 percent of voting intentions ahead of their May 6 runoff. A second survey by pollster CSA showed the Socialist ahead on 54 percent to Sarkozy's 46.

"All the conditions are there for a win... The momentum is with us," Hollande, who has struck an increasingly presidential tone since the first round, told France 2 television.

"The outgoing president had said that he would be judged on unemployment, and he will be. He promised to cut unemployment to 5 percent and it is at 10."

 

 

NorthReport

It won't be long now

 

Sarkozy is slipping away

The French president narrowly lost the first electoral round. He’s running scared and needs new friends—fast.

http://www2.macleans.ca/2012/04/30/sarkozy-is-slipping-away/

NDPP

French Elections: Cracks in the Neo Liberal CONsensus  -  by Diana Johnstone

http://www.zcommunications.org/french-elections-cracks-in-the-neoliberal...

"..Every candidate except Sarkozy, the self-styled centrist Bayrou and the Green candidate Eva Joly singled out the world of finance as the main adversary. Hollande did so quite explicitly in his main campaign speech, although shortly afterwards he watered his wine considerably during a visit to London, the City oblige.

This hostility towards banks has horrified Anglo-American commentators, from the Economist to John Vinocur of the International Herald Tribune, for whom realism consists in docile obedience to the demands of 'the markets'. Acting uppity toward finance capital is close to insanity. If 'the right' is defined first of all by subservience to finance capital, [all Canadian pols!] then aside from Sarkozy, Bayrou and perhaps Joly, all the other candidates were basically on the Left. And all of them except Sarkozy would be considered far to the left of any leading politician in the United States.

This applies notably to Marine Le Pen, whose social program was designed to win working class and youth votes. Marine Le Pen condemns the euro as a failure which has wrecked European economies and is doomed to disappear..."

Ken Burch

Why would Eva Joly let the financial community off the hook?  Doesn't she realize that austerity is the mortal enemy of Green values?
That probably explains why she only took 2.5% of the vote.

NDPP

Sarkozy and Hollande Trade Barbs in Heated TV Debate

http://www.france24.com/en/20120503-sarkozy-hollande-duel-hotly-conteste...

"In the first and only televised debate ahead of Sunday's vote, incumbent French President Nicolas Sarkozy and Socialist rival Francois Hollande traded barbs as they faced off on a number of issues ranging from economic policies to immigration. It was billed as 'The Final Confrontation' and that's exactly what millions of TV viewers across France got Wednesday night as incumbent French President Nicolas Sarkozy squared off against his Socialist challenger, Francois Hollande, in an intensely contested face-off, the only debate of the 2012 campaign.."

NorthReport

Hollande favorite as French prepare for Sunday vote

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/05/05/us-france-election-idUSBRE83I0...

NorthReport

 

Hollande eyes quick consensus with Merkel on growth

http://www.dailystar.com.lb/Business/International/2012/May-05/172418-ho...

NDPP

Off With King Sarko's Head  -  by Pepe Escobar

http://www.informationclearinghouse.info/article31255.htm

"Bye bye bling bling guy - and good riddance."

NorthReport

So if these results are confirmed will this election just be another, in the many cases of manipulated polling results, showing the right closing the gap as more nonsense coming from the msp. With the msp so decidely right-wing, it's a wonder any left-of-centre parties ever get elected anywhere.
 
Hollande headed for victory in French presidential race: poll

 

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/world/hollande-headed-for-victory-in...

NorthReport

Already over 70% of the voters have voted with an anticipated turnout of 80%. Be nice to see that kind of interest in elections in Canada.

janfromthebruce

NorthReport wrote:

So if these results are confirmed will this election just be another, in the many cases of manipulated polling results, showing the right closing the gap as more nonsense coming from the msp. With the msp so decidely right-wing, it's a wonder any left-of-centre parties ever get elected anywhere.
 
Hollande headed for victory in French presidential race: poll

 

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/world/hollande-headed-for-victory-in...

"A Hollande presidency will make France virtually the only major European country with a left-wing leader, and would mark a major shift in Europe’s balance of power." Except that the results on the municipal elections across the United Kingdom do not support thesis of govt powers not "shifting left". Conservatives lost big time in UK yesterday and with labour coming back to challenge neoliberal austerity measures.

 

NorthReport

The globe supports the left.  Laughing

NorthReport

1 and 1/4 hours of voting LEFT

NorthReport


French election: Nicolas Sarkozy v François Hollande – live updates and results

Nicolas Sarkozy is the most unpopular French president ever to run for re-election while François Hollande is hoping for the Socialist's first presidential win since 1988. Polls close in major cities at 8pm CEST (7pm BST/2pm EDT) with early counts soon after

 

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/french-election-blog-2012/2012/may/06/fr...

janfromthebruce

oh yes NR, the Globe supports the LEFT (when hell freezes over) which could happen with global warming & their love for the petro dollar Kiss

NorthReport

Sweet!

Less than 1 hour LEFT to go

- from the Guardian election blog:

7.01pm CEST: Socialist supporters are already gathering, confident of a victory. Rue de Solferino, where the Socialist HQ is based, is already full of hundreds of supporters, blocking the road.

NorthReport

Social democrats do not get many opportunities to celebrate political victories these days so hopefully this will be one of them.

 

http://www.independent.co.uk/opinion/commentators/olaf-cramme-hollande-w...

NorthReport

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