Israel and the 'new' Middle East

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WFPD
Israel and the 'new' Middle East

It's no secret that Israel and it's supporters are nervous about the prospect of a democratic Middle East. The new situation dramatically reduces their ability to pursue an expansionist agenda in the West Bank. Even if Egypt is ruled by secular democratic forces, the new governments must take into account public sentiment towards the Israeli Palestinian conflict. The same is true for Jordan, even if it's government survives.

I suspect that the Netanyahu government will soon find itself in an untenable position regarding settlements, and may have to limit growth because of external pressures. If not, there may be serious economic and security consequences.

I suspect that the Gaza blockade will die a swift death, with barely a peep out of the Israeli government. Can they risk an open conflict with Egypt over Gaza? The Palestinian pursuit of UN recognized statehood is now almost a certainty. How can Obama oppose it after publicly supporting the Egyptian(and Tunisian) struggle for democracy and self determination? 

The Zionist fantasy of a "greater Israel" is now effectively dead. It died in Tahrir Squre this afternoon. What the Palestians can salvage from this will not be much, but it will be better than nothing at least.

Doug

I doubt that very much. Cooperation on security issues with Israel - that is, maintaining a closed border with Gaza - is pretty likely to be a condition of continued American aid. A new Egyptian government probably will have much more to say about the occupation than the previous government but that's as far as it'll go.

Boom Boom Boom Boom's picture

Let's not get too far ahead of ourselves. The country needs an interim period where political parties can form and get ready for an election. When we hear what the parties stand for - that will be the time to speculate, not now.

WFPD

Doug wrote:

I doubt that very much. Cooperation on security issues with Israel - that is, maintaining a closed border with Gaza - is pretty likely to be a condition of continued American aid. A new Egyptian government probably will have much more to say about the occupation than the previous government but that's as far as it'll go.

I would not assume that 1.3 Billion dollars a year is absolutely critical to Egypt. It's a lot of money, but Egypt has leverage and it has alternatives. Egypt could close the Suez Canal to American ships, and it could find alternate suppleirs of military technology. China might be happy to extend it's influence to such a critical partner.

I can't see any Egyptian politician continuing the policy of collusion in the blockade of Gaza. It would leave them open to accusations of being Mubarak lite. It would be political suicide. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Boom Boom Boom Boom's picture

Saudi Arabia has already said it will replace American aid if necessary.

al-Qa'bong

That's odd, considering that the Saudis are Israeli and US allies.

Ken Burch Ken Burch's picture

Could be a hint that the Saudis have something cooking with China.

Boom Boom Boom Boom's picture

The Saudis have also offered refuge for Mubarak if he wants it.

Stockholm

al-Qa'bong wrote:

That's odd, considering that the Saudis are Israeli and US allies.

Except that Saudi Arabia has no diplomatic relations with Israel, has never signed a peace treaty and even refuses entry to anyone with an Israeli stamp in their passport.

N.Beltov N.Beltov's picture

The client states don't have to get along. But that hand that pulls the strings is the same, so it doesn't matter.

trippie

Here is my opiinion... the more things change the more they stay the same... the military is in now in charge.. Last time I checked, Mubarak was a military man....

 

This is what happenes to revolutions when the working class revolts but does not have an understanding of what Socialism is... Oh well, I guess a few more generations of oppression is in store for the Egyption working class....

 

iI hav eother things to worry about. The City I live in Toronto has been hijacked by a couple of rich brothers that are going to start desimating the working conditions  here. Now I have to think about leaving.

 

Ken Burch Ken Burch's picture

Why are you assuming that the Egyptian working class has no "understanding of what socialism is"?

A lot of workers were in Tahrir Square.  I can't believe you're pissing on what they've achieved so far.  There's no reason to assume they'll stop short of real victory.

What did the Egyptian Revolution do to deserve this level of dismissive contempt from you?

Jingles

The US and Israel aren't really worried. They just have to throw down the "democracy" card. As long as people equate democracy with the simplistic act of casting a ballot, revolutions can be successfully neutered. Once parties are formed, their institutional interests will override revolutionary interests, and they can be easily and successfully corrupted. It's not a lack of understanding of socialism that's the problem, it's the lack of understanding of the nature of our democratic systems.

No need for the whip, no need for the rein. Just good ol' machine politics will keep everything going smoothly for empire.

N.Beltov N.Beltov's picture

Those who preach cynicism about social change are worse enemies than the "real" enemies. Their efforts demoralize others and poison them with the same virus that they are infected with.

Billy Bragg wrote:
... has led me to talk to my audience not about the evils of capitalism and conservatism and racism, but to focus on what I see as the thing they have in common, which is cynicism. The worst aspects of capitalism, the worst impulses of conservatives and every inch of racism is driven by cynicism.

al-Qa'bong

Testify, comrade!

And get the heck over to the Hall of Fame.

NDPP

ElBaradei: Soros Man in Cairo - by Maidhc O Cathail

http://usa.mediamonitors.net/content/view/full/83122

"The International Crisis Group (ICG) is a fascinating case study of the way human rights organizations, governments and international corporations work hand in glove these days. Tel Aviv's concerns about the loss of a friendly dictator next door, however, should be assuaged somewhat by the fact that ElBaradei could collaborate with the considerable number of Israeli partisans at ICG..."

Egypt's Lesson for Palestine - by Ahmed Moor

http://english.aljazeera.net/indepth/opinion/2011/02/2011211132550969122...

"Will the pan-Arab intifada reignite Palestinian streets or is the challenge facing Palestinians just too great? The grand arc from Cairo to Tel Aviv to Ramallah - the primary propulsion force behind the despots - is American patronage.."

Doug

Boom Boom wrote:

Saudi Arabia has already said it will replace American aid if necessary.

 

Money which will still have strings on it, if different ones.

Coyoteman

While it is still not clear I think, the direction the Egyptian revolution will take, there is no doubt that the masses want at least more distance between themselves and Israel, and a new more open border with the Palestinians. As for the military High Command structure, which in all armies is typically held closer to the ruling class, one would be better to presume treachery, and a desire to maintain the cash flow military aid from The Empire. Which, for sure, is for the Egyptian people themselves to act or not upon.

Still, the revolution is in its early days, with doubtless many hurdles yet to overcome. Even as it spreads to the rest of the Middle East, from which there will be cause and effect back and forth across all of them. Which says to me an ongoing radicalization process, secular or otherwise in form. The reason for that dynamic being, everyone there as well as any aware person here, has got to know that the root cause and support for oppression across the Middle East, and their collective impoverishment and socio-economic backwardness, is the long history of Western Imperialism there, of which the US Empire and Israeli fact of life is only the most recent. (Replacing the old British, French etc colonial domination period.)

Because of which "guilt" driven fears, the US and other Western imperial serving and benefiting countries are already manoeuvring to try and retain control of the Egyptian Military and any other leadership and policy outcomes yet to evolve over the coming days and months. For if influence over Egypt is lost, and across the whole of the Middle East, the Empire;s hegemony ambitions in Iraq and Afghanistan are also lost, in but a matter of dwindling time. (Already in Afghanistan, the sands of time are rapidly running towards the bottom.)

At which point, The Empire's influence vanishes, and it is begun even, to be driven from the lands of the Middle East, a predictable time comes when Zionist Israel is as well abandoned to its own fate in its Arab neighbourhood.

You know they are all trembling at the prospects here.

But for now, the Egyptians have this issue of the Military High Command on their plate. May the people prevail. Cool

trippie

Look, stop your denial, the military has taken control of the country. That's the end of the revolution .. it's over.

 

There may be some concessions coming from the ruling elite, but that's about it.

 

Believe me, I wish what I say is wrong, but I don't wee it.

 

What's important is to learn the lesson here. We must educate each  other in a Socialist answer to the Capitalist problem and we must educate others.

al-Qa'bong

This isn't a socialist vs. capitalist issue in Egypt right now.  It's about little people overcoming giants with big sticks.

Boom Boom Boom Boom's picture

Right on, al-Q.

ElizaQ ElizaQ's picture

Live blog on Iran--  25 Bahran

http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontline/tehranbureau/2011/02/iran-live-b...

Quote:
What will happen Monday, history will record in less than 24 hours. The atmosphere is filled by suspense over the call for demonstration. Certainly the city is not calm. There were chants of "Allah-o akbar" across Tehran. People expect something to happen. Publicly, Mr. Karroubi and Mr. Mousavi have called for a demonstration in solidarity with the people of Egypt. Nobody thinks or believes this is about Egypt or will remain focused on Egypt. No wonder that their request has been rejected as illegal. Their advisers have announced that according to Article 27 of Iran's Constitution there is no need for a permit. It must be noted that both leaders are under house arrest now. Most likely they will be prevented from attending the demonstration. [While Karroubi has been under house arrest for four days, there is no independent confirmation that Mousavi has been similarly confined. As we noted two-and-a-half hours ago, a senior adviser to the former presidential candidate says that his mobile phone has been disconnected and it has not been possible to reach him. --Ed.]

It is interesting to note that beyond the publicly announced goal of solidarity with the Egyptian people, there is no other specific demand. There are a number of slogans for on the web, but beyond that there is no goal, at least no publicly stated goal. Right now it seems the question is not what the strategy is, it is if the crowds will gather in the streets of Tehran on Monday.

In the events that followed the 2009 presidential election, the government showed that it is a fast learner indeed. New tactics were designed and more security units than ever utilized. By the time the Green Movement called for a mass demonstration on the anniversary of the Revolution last year, government forces were well prepared to prevent crowds from assembling. In many cases, people were dispersed as they exited metro stations. Any small gathering was attacked and the mass demonstration did not take place.

Now many in the Green Movement hope that the recent events in the Middle East have shifted the paradigm in Tehran. They have no doubt that the government will use force. However, they are hoping that the suppression will not be as brutal as before. This hope is based on the fact that although the Iranian government does not care about global opinion, it cares a great deal about its image on the streets of the Middle East. And the eyes of region are on Tehran. The belief is that as the dictators of Egypt and Tunisia have departed and there is a chance for friendly governments in these countries, Iran's political establishment will not risk losing its stature and prestige among the region's Muslim population. The Green Movement leaders hope that this perspective will soften the government reaction to Monday's demonstration.

 

Main hastag for twitter is #25Bahman

 

Caissa

Palestinian Prime Minister Salam Fayyad dissolved his cabinet in an emergency meeting on Monday in what appeared to be a gesture inspired by unrest rocking the Arab world.

The move was intended to prepare for general elections planned later this year, the official Wafa news agency reported. Fayyad now has six weeks to name a new Cabinet.

President Mahmoud Abbas accepted Fayyad's decision after the cabinet meeting.

Read more: http://www.cbc.ca/world/story/2011/02/14/palestinian-cabinet-dissolve.html#ixzz1DwowlX5b

Coyoteman

"This isn't a socialist vs. capitalist issue in Egypt right now.  It's about little people overcoming giants with big sticks." Al Q

 

Of course it isn't a "socialist vs capitalist" issue, though both I am sure are part of the forces lined up against each other. But specifically it's an "Egyptian working class vs capitalist ruling class" issue, whether or not both are totally aware of that. Though I'm sure the working class there knows within what social class mileu supprt of the "junta" resides, is supported and whom it is fundamentally serving, as likewise was Mubarak,  ... and that it is certainly NOT the majority working class.

The Egyptian Revolution is fundamentally a class and anti-imperialism issue.

N.Beltov N.Beltov's picture

A detailed analysis of the social and political forces is the remedy to goofy arm-waving. I`m not seeing a lot of that.

NDPP

Egypt's Revolution And Israel: 'Bad for the Jews' - by Ilan Pappe

http://electronicintifada.net/v2/article11803.shtml

"The view from Israel is that if they indeed succeed, the Tunisian and Egyptian revolutions are bad, very bad. Educated Arabs -- not all of them dressed as 'Islamists', quite a few of them speaking perfect English whose wish for democracy is articulated without resorting to 'anti-Western' rhetoric -- are bad for Israel..."

N.Beltov N.Beltov's picture

Fracking brilliant, as usual. 

Ilan Pappe wrote:
Arab armies that do not shoot at these demonstrators are as bad as are many other images that moved and enthused so many people around the world, even in the West. This world reaction is also bad, very bad. It makes the Israeli occupation in the West Bank and Gaza Strip and its apartheid policies inside the state look like the acts of a typical "Arab" regime.

Ilan Pappe wrote:
In Israel of course when you say "bad for the Jews," you mean the Israelis -- but you also mean that whatever is bad for Israel is bad for the Jews all around the world (despite the evidence to the contrary since the foundation of the state).

The calculated way that the interests of Jews and the interests of Israelis are conflated reminds me of the way that the interests of the United States and the interests of General Motors were conflated in the past. A slight of hand - like a card trick which, once you see through, you never get fooled by again.

Anyway, I love this guy's sense of humour. Events in Egypt were met with stony silence until ...

Ilan Pappe wrote:
... Netanyahu could not keep his mouth shut for that long. And when the boss talked all the others followed. And when they all responded, their commentary made Fox News' commentators look like a bunch of peaceniks and free-loving hippies from the 1960s.

lol. And, yes, this is Israeli politics today. To the RIGHT of Fox News. And the Canadian poodle to Yanqui imperialism, Harper, snaps his heels to attention to his Yanqui overlords regarding this regime.

To further compare events in Egypt to the odious Israeli regime ...

Ilan Pappe wrote:
... this scene ... can never happen in Israel. Israel is a place where all the generals who ordered the shootings of Palestinian and Jewish anti-occupation demonstrators now compete for the highest post of Chief of the General Staff.

One of them is Yair Naveh, who gave orders in 2008 to kill Palestinian suspects even if they could be peacefully arrested. He is not going to jail; but the young woman, Anat Kamm, who exposed these orders is now facing nine years in jail for leaking them to Israeli daily Haaretz. Not one Israeli general or politician has or is going to spend one day in jail for ordering the troops to shoot at unarmed demonstrators, innocent civilians, women, old men and children.

The Mid-East's "only" democracy. Uh huh. What sort of people actually believe that swill anymore?

 

 

Bec.De.Corbin Bec.De.Corbin's picture

Boom Boom wrote:

Saudi Arabia has already said it will replace American aid if necessary.

 

Cool, I say we put that to the test, we need to stop that aid right now and add that to the budget cuts...

NDPP

How not to win Arab friends and influence people...

Chief West Bank Rabbi Issues Ruling That Legalizes Killing Arabs

http://occupiedpalestine.wordpress.com/2011/02/09/chief-west-bank-rabbi-...

"The chief Rabbi of the Kiryat Arba has ruled it legal to kill all Gentiles (non Jews) without qualification. The ruling by Dov Lior was derived from other major Israeli rabbis who held it permissable to kill Arabs without cause..."

and clearly they're following it..

al-Qa'bong

Imagine the reaction in the West if some Iranian Muslim cleric had said this about Israelis. 

trippie

@ Post 19

Everything is a working class vs the capitalist thing. You need to get straight with the program. It's the exploited against the exploiters.

 

The only answer to  Capitalism is Socialism/communism. You think some half baked , reformist agenda is going to change anything? You're living in fantasy land there my friend.

 

Look at Canada, the Social Democrats NDP have been working from one reform to the next, has it even remotely worked? NO it has not, the Capitalists have put there Conservative party in charge and on a daily bases they attack every corner of working class rights.

That's reality my friend, suck it up, get over it and get with the program. Cause the American Capitalist decline is not going to end peacefully.

al-Qa'bong

Quote:

Everything is a working class vs the capitalist thing. You need to get straight with the program. .

 

Is that what Charlton Heston told Yul Brynner?

 

Quote:

It's the exploited against the exploiters

 

Of course it is, and this fight has been going on long before capitalism existed. This is old fashioned tyrants vs. oppressed masses. When Adam delved and Eve span, who was then the gentleman, or the venture capitalist?

trippie

Dude, this is not a joke. Wake up. If your feeling uncomfortable with the truth then at least admit it to yourself.

 

The working class of Egypt has been able to rise up because of one historical fact. Their exploiter, America, is in decline and can not protect it's turf.

 

Their revolution, as great as it is , is doomed for failure. Why? Because you need a new philosophy to replace the one that is not working. If the same philosophy is in place after the revolution then nothing changes.

 

If you are fat and want to lose wait, can you still keep eating and thinking of food the same way?

 

If the working class of Egypt wan to change their class structure, will miner reformers or shuffling the ruling class deck of cards change anything?

 

You have to be a little bit more objective in your world analysis. It's great to see the working class rise up, is foolish to wishfully think that's all that needs to happen.

al-Qa'bong

Quote:

Dude, this is not a joke. Wake up. If your feeling uncomfortable with the truth then at least admit it to yourself.

 

 

If you are fat and want to lose wait, can you still keep eating and thinking of food the same way?

 

Yeah, I suppose you're right.

Fidel

Stockholm wrote:

al-Qa'bong wrote:

That's odd, considering that the Saudis are Israeli and US allies.

Except that Saudi Arabia has no diplomatic relations with Israel, has never signed a peace treaty and even refuses entry to anyone with an Israeli stamp in their passport.

I believe the Israelis have done business with Saudi Arabia and Egypt, and Pakistan before in the 1980s according to the story Charlie Wilson's War. Those countries all had arms agreements between them to supply the Gucci Mujahideen.

Enduro Man Enduro Man's picture

Stephen Harper's slavering support of a terrorist state that murders and represses Palestinians is quite disgusting.  However if the region's old autocratic Arab regimes can be supplanted by truly popularly elected civilian governments then Israel's murderous and theocratically fueled government will soon find their neighbourhood distinctly less freindly and they will become far more isolated.

This will restrict the ability of Israel to engage in theft and violence with impunity.  Unfortunately, there is no democratic tradition in any of these countries much less any of the institutions required for a popular democracy to emerge so I'm not holding my breath.  I hate to be cynical but trippie has a point.  The odds are stacked against the people.  They always were.

Bec.De.Corbin Bec.De.Corbin's picture

trippie wrote:

The only answer to  Capitalism is Socialism/communism. You think some half baked , reformist agenda is going to change anything? You're living in fantasy land there my friend.

 

So why does the communist party do so lousy in elections in North America then?

al-Qa'bong

That's a topic for another thread.

Boom Boom Boom Boom's picture

trippie repeats that nonsense across all of these threads, and it's getting tiresome.

Slumberjack

Bec.De.Corbin wrote:
 So why does the communist party do so lousy in elections in North America then?

Through a combination of what presented itself as communism in places such as Russia, China, and Cambodia, and what was depicted as communism in places like the US and Canada, the term itself has gotten a rather bad rap in the West, and irrevocably so.  Essentially the capitalist project of disinformation equated these false depictions to socialism, social democracy, Nazism, Fascism and any other 'ism' they could work into the mix, until today the absurdities have reached an inevitable point of development which informs the woefully uninformed that publically operated street lights, public health care, libraries and what not are the slippery slope toward government education and extermination camps.

al-Qa'bong

Because the concept of "freedom" is alien to the Arab mind:

Quote:
"What we saw in Egypt is a unique development," Meridor said. "The slogans in the square were mostly from the western dictionary, not from the Muslim dictionary. They were about freedom, about liberties, about free elections, so they were positive

 

Israeli racists weighs in on Egypt

Enduro Man Enduro Man's picture

al-Qa'bong wrote:

Because the concept of "freedom" is alien to the Arab mind:

Quote:
"What we saw in Egypt is a unique development," Meridor said. "The slogans in the square were mostly from the western dictionary, not from the Muslim dictionary. They were about freedom, about liberties, about free elections, so they were positive

 

Israeli racists weighs in on Egypt

Israelis aren't free.  They are ruled by religious mind poison and a minority of theocratic fanatics who set the agenda for the entire country.

Israel is no freer than Iran, just more Western.

trippie

@ boom boom

 

Maybe there's a connection between all the threads?

 

Maybe you should just stop reading my posts?

 

Maybe you're missing the point and I have to say it over and over and over and over and over again?

 

Maybe, instead of snarky remarks, you can make a point yourself and then we can debate it?

trippie

@Bec post #36

 

Maybe if the Communist party actually put forth a Communist proposal it would do better.

 

But then if we are talking communist, then we would be talking about Marx and Marx himself stated the working class should run candidates in the bourgeois elections, Not to win by to put forth our position.

You can't win a bourgeois election and then implement communism. Communism as a theory, denotes the destruction of the bourgeois state.

 

If they were to win, their mandate would be to dismantle the state as we know it. How many people are ready for that?

 

People on this site, ones that have a profound understating of Communism, show apprehension for the implementation of a Communist economy. So how could an ordinary person with a bourgeois propagated understanding of Communism vote for them?

 

Communism is beyond the understanding most people. It is a far of distant destination that is aspired to.

 

These are some reasons why they don't win elections.

 

trippie

Why does the Communist Part not win elections?

 

Well, most people don't even know what surplus value is for one thing.

 

Another is that most people don't even know what "the means of production" are.

 

Most people don't understand why private property rights are a bad thing.

 

 

Basicly, the most basic theoretical ideas put forth by the Communists are beyond the current comprehension of the working class.

 

 

 

trippie

Look, I read theoretical analysis of Marxs work... I don't even undertand it all. Im just an average guy, spending way to mush time weeding through it all, trying to deside what bullshit and whats to be kept.

 

How is Joe Schmoe, with limited time able to do it?

 

He's not... He's gonna open up the Toronto Star, or the Toronto Sun, or the National Post or the Globe and Mail. And their gonna tell him who to vote for, with their bourgeois spin.

 

So he's gonna either deside on one of them or just not go.

 

Were's his opertunity to hear a Socialist or Communist take on it all? On some obscure website that's filled with layers of theoretical bla bla bla?

Not even Rabble.ca puts forth a Socialst or Communist proposal. Theirs is a Social Democtatic one at best.

 

Caissa

A senior Suez Canal official says two Iranian warships have withdrawn their application to transit the waterway following expressions of concern by Israel over the plans.

The official said no reason was given for Thursday's decision to withdraw the application. The official, who spoke on condition of anonymity because he was not authorized to speak to the media, also said it was not known if the vessels intended to transit the waterway at a later date.

Read more: http://www.cbc.ca/world/story/2011/02/17/suez-canal-iran-israel.html#ixzz1EDbBh1yx

Enduro Man Enduro Man's picture

trippie wrote:

Look, I read theoretical analysis of Marxs work... I don't even undertand it all. Im just an average guy, spending way to mush time weeding through it all, trying to deside what bullshit and whats to be kept.

 

How is Joe Schmoe, with limited time able to do it?

 

He's not... He's gonna open up the Toronto Star, or the Toronto Sun, or the National Post or the Globe and Mail. And their gonna tell him who to vote for, with their bourgeois spin.

 

So he's gonna either deside on one of them or just not go.

 

Were's his opertunity to hear a Socialist or Communist take on it all? On some obscure website that's filled with layers of theoretical bla bla bla?

Not even Rabble.ca puts forth a Socialst or Communist proposal. Theirs is a Social Democtatic one at best.

 

"From each according to his ability, to each according to his needs" is not that difficult a concept to understand.

trippie

@ Enduro Man

 

Ha Ha.. How about historical Materialism, or the Theory of Value or Theory of Rent, or a host of other theories and what not. And I'm not talking about reading some Wikipedia gibberish about the subject. I'm talking about reading theorists theorizing about theories.

To read them you have to have an understanding already. They don't talk in a way a new comer would not understand readily.

Doug
NDPP

Egypt/Turkey/Israel: 'A Clean Break' by Eric Walberg

http://www.globalresearch.ca/index.php?context=va&aid=23361

"It is not Israel backed by the distant US that inhertis the Ottoman mantle of hegemony in the Middle East, but some combination of Turkey and Egypt.."

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