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With Toss Ups
Date / Race / Dem / GOP / Toss Ups / Req'd to Win-Majority
Sep 17 / Pres / 237 / 191 / 110 / 270
Sep 17 / Senate / 48 / 46 / 6 / 51
Sep 17 / House / 183 / 229 / 23 / 218
Without Toss Ups
Date / Race / Dem / GOP / Req'd to Win-Majority
Sep 17 / Pres / 332 / 206 / 270
Sep 19 Senate / 50 / 50 / 51
Sep 17 / Senate / 49 / 51 / 51
Sep 17 / House / 191 / 242 / 218
Lots of blue recently.
I am just waiting for the day when someone fixes an election to win a betting pool.
Find the 47%...?
Sep 17 / House
US Election 2012
Date / Race / Dem / GOP / Toss Ups / Req'd-to-Win Majority
Sep 19 / Pres / 247 / 191 / 100 / 270*
Sep 19 / Senate / 48 / 45 / 7 / 51
Sep 19 / House / 183 / 229 / 23 / 218**
Sep 19 / Pres / 332 / 206 / 270
Sep 19 Senate / 52 / 48 / 51
Sep 19 / House /
* These Electoral College vote projections, moreso than the popular vote, are the ones to watch in determining who will win the presidency.
** Even if all the House toss-ups go to the Democrats, which at this point is highly unlikely, the Democrats will not have control of the House as Nancy Pelosi suggested they would have last weekend on CNN.
Date / Obama / O-Change / Romney / R-Change / Difference
Sep 19 / 67% / -1.3% / 32.7% / +0.6% / Obama by 34.3%
Sep 18 / 68.3% / +0.3% / 32.1% / -0.2% / Obama by 36.2%
Sep 18 / 68% / +0.6% / 32.3% / -0.2% / Obama by 35.7%
Sep 18 / 67.4% / +1.2% / 32.5% / -1.2% / Obama by 34.9%
Aug 20 / 57% / -------------/ 41.6% / -------------/ Obama by 15.4%
Was wondering where the increase of 10 Electoral College votes came from for Obama.
It appears it was Wisconsin.
So much for Paul Ryan, the Wisconsin boy bounce, eh!
Marquette University poll released today = Obama ahead by 14%
Um, that video showing Romney squishing 47% of the voters at a private GOP fund-raising event, appears to be working for Obama's re-election chances. And Obama has more than doubled his odds spread over Romney in the past month.
Sep 20 / 69.5% / +2.5% / 30.5% / -2.2% / Obama by 39%
Let's see how many times Rasmussen can bring the polling averages in Obama's favour down:
Lots of blue these days!
Obama solidifies lead over Romney, ahead by five points: Reuters/Ipsos pol
"First it was a bump and then it was a post-convention bump and then it was the remainder of the bump, and now it's just a lead," Ipsos pollster Julia Clark said.
Another Senate seat in Nevada this time, has just moved from Republican to toss-up.
If defeated, the GOP will never ever accept the will of the people.
Sep 21 / 69.9% / +0.4% / 30.0% / -0.5% / Obama by 39.9%
Sep 20: One
This is too easy!
Sep 21: Two
Jumping around a bit today but Obama still gaining.
Sep 21 / 71.6% / -1.0% / 28.7% / +1.6% / Obama by 42.9%
Sep 21 / 72.6% / +2.7% / 27.1% / -2.9% / Obama by 45.5%
What about Gallup polling? They seem a little suspect as well as Rasmussen
Sept. 20: Obama’s Convention Bounce May Not Be Receding
In the 10 states that have generally been ranked the highest on our tipping-point list — Ohio, Virginia, Florida, Wisconsin, Colorado, Nevada, Iowa, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire and Michigan — there have been 21 such polls since the Democratic convention ended. Mr. Obama has led in all 21 of these surveys — and usually by clear margins. On average, he has held a six-point lead in these surveys, and he has had close to 50 percent of the vote in them.
Mr. Obama’s results have been more varied among polling firms that use different methodologies. A series of polls in eleven swing states, released on Thursday by the online firm YouGov, were fairly strong for Mr. Obama, putting him ahead among likely voters in all of the states except North Carolina.
But automated polls, like those from the Rasmussen Reports, have had lukewarm results for Mr. Obama. A Rasmussen Reports poll released on Thursday, for instance, put Mr. Obama three points behind in Iowa.
I don’t mean to keep repeating this point about polling methodologies, but it really does seem to be the easiest way to unpack the state-level data right now.
In contrast to the six-point lead Mr. Obama has held on average among the swing-state polls that included cellphones, and the five-point lead he had on average among the YouGov Internet surveys, Mr. Obama has been ahead by just two points on average in polls that called landlines only, most of which were “robopolls” conducted by automated script.
US Presidential Polling - 2012
Date / Pollster / Obama / Romney ? Difference
Sep 20 / Reuters/Ipsos / 48% / 43% / Obama +5%
Sep 19 / Pew Research / 51% / 43% / Obama +8%
Sep 23 / 71.1% / +0.2% / 28.5% / -0.5% / Obama by 42.6%
Sep 23 / 70.9% / +0.7% / 29.0% / -0.4% / Obama by 41.9%
Sep 23 / 70.2% / Flatlined / 29.4% / -0.2% / Obama by 40.8%
Sep 22 / 70.2% / -1.4% / 29.6% / +0.9% / Obama by 40.6%
Obama leads by 5% in toss up state Ohio
Obama leads by 4% in toss up state Florida.
Fun watching Senior Romney Advisor and racist excrement Bay Buchanan getting wiped out on Meet The Press. Not by the two liberals on the panel but by David Brooks and Joe Scarboro
This is good:
"Days Since Mitt Romney Stepped In It" Sign At Boston Campaign HQ Once Again Reset To "0"
So much for the Paul Ryan bounce in Wisconsin, eh!
Obama leads by 8.4%
Why have the people in Mass, where Romney was Governor, turned against him?
Why have the people in Michigan, the state where Romney was born, turned against him?
Why have the people in Wisconsin, where Paul Ryan is from, turned against the Republicans?
Sep 25 / 72% / Flatlined / 27.5% / -0.3% / Obama by 44.5%
Sep 24 / 72% / +0.8% / 27.8% / +0.2% / Obama by 44.2%
Sep 24 / 71.2% / +0.1% / 27.6% / -0.9% / Obama by 43.6%
Polls: Obama has lead in Ohio, slight edge in Fla.
Only right-wingers can come up with stuff like this.
Polls are not meant to manipulate, right.
The website where Mitt Romney’s winning in a landslide
At UnSkewed Polls, "liberal media bias" is removed from every survey that shows Obama ahead. Guess who wins?
Rasmussen and Gallup continue to drag down support for Obama in the polls
Sep 25 / 73% / +0.1% / 27% / -0.2% / Obama by 46% (largest spread so far)
Sep 25 / 72.9% / +0.9% / 27.2% / -0.3% / Obama's by 45.7%
Picking Ryan has done little to win voters for Romney
Obama is now leading in every swing state!
Obama has opened up big leads in both Ohio & Florida this morning
Sep 26 / 74.4% / +1.4% / 25% / -2.0% / Obama by 49.4%
Sep 25 / 73% / +0.1% / 27% / -0.2% / Obama by 46%
Obama is not far away from that magic number of 270 seats, having picked up 18 votes in Ohio overnite
Date / Pollster / Obama / Romney / Toss Up /
Sep 26 / RCP / 265 / 191 / 82
Those 18 seats Obama picked up in Ohio last nite come on the heels of the Republican Vice=Presidential candidate campaigning there. What a political dud Paul Ryan has turned out to be.
Sep 26 / 75.1% / +0.7% / 25.1% / +0.1% / Obama by 50%
Bloomberg now has Obama with a 6 point lead and Rasmussen still has the 2 presidential candidates tied.
Republican supporting pollster Rasmussen has become the laughing stock of the US pollsters, and it makes no sense to include them in any polling averages.
At least Gallup, whose polling has been iffy, are now smart enough to show Obama with a 6% lead as well.
It appears that the magical whiz team of Ryan & Romney are in acute danger of being seriously smoked!
If I were one of their financial backers I would giving thought to cutting my losses now.
Sep 26 / 75.7% / +0.6% / 24.7% / -0.4% / Obama by 51%
This means Paul Ryan will have some prominent role when the House reconvenes
Sep 26 / 75.8% / +0.1% / 24.5% / -0.2% / Obama by 51.3%
Republicans deluded by ‘skewed’ polls
It's not the polls, it's the policies.
Sep 28 / 78.5% / +0.8% / 22.3% / -0.1% / Obama by 56.2%
Sep 27 / 77.8% / +0.9% / 22.4% / -0.5% / Obama by 55.4%
Sep 27 / 76.9% / +1.2% / 22.9% / -1.8% / Obama by 54%
It's not at that point yet, and may never be in the next 6 weeks. But if present trends continue, as they say, it could be.
Democrats' chances of keeping the senate have improved dramatically the last two weeks.
And an update from princeton:
I hope I'm wrong. No question it would be very productive for the American people to rid themselves of Paul Ryan as Chair of the House Budget Committee.
The change in these Intrade odds over the past 5 weeks are truly amazin'
Date / Obama / )-Change / Romney / R-Change / Difference
Sep 28 / 79% / +0.5% / 21.1% / -0.8% / 57.9%
Americans should treat Fox News for what it is - nothing more than a bad comedy show
Presidential Polls Indicate Romney Losing: How Election 2012 Could Spark GOP Revolution
The latest national polls reported by Real Clear Politics have Obama leading by four points. The Gallup poll has Obama leading by six and Fox has Obama up 5. RCP has changed the status of Ohio from battleground to leans Obama. The change gives Obama a projected265 electoral votes to 191 for Romney and reduces the number of battleground states to seven. No Republican president has ever won without Ohio and if this scenario holds true, Romney would have to win all of the other swing states in order to get to the required 270 electoral votes.
On Monday, Bill O’Reilly dedicated a segment of The O'Reilly Factor to poll science. He had Karl “The Architect” Rove explain the science of polling and go through countless scenarios of how Romney might win without Ohio. It was a hollow attempt at convincing the conservative viewing audience that all was not lost, but it came across as the latest indication of a campaign that is tethering on the edge.