Living in the SARS-CoV-2 era (distancing, wash hands, wear mask to protect others, but OK to go outside)

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Sean in Ottawa

kropotkin1951 wrote:

"The one benefit of this crisis is that people like you are being exposed for what they really are."

Please stop your fighting with people.

 I was responding to a comment. Please stop your bullying piling on everytime something happens between other people. I knew you would be by to do that because that is who you are.

Only a fucking hypocrite amplifies other arguments by going in and criticizing the person responding just because they want to get their oar in and swing their dick around.

kropotkin1951

Sean your rants against other posters disturbs my quiet enjoyment of this website so please stop fighting.

Sean in Ottawa

kropotkin1951 wrote:

Sean your rants against other posters disturbs my quiet enjoyment of this website so please stop fighting.

LOL hypocrite

kropotkin1951

I know you must be stressed, given the Iranian Canadian connection to this pandemic but still please constrain yourself. I posted this in another thread as well but it is clear that the BC Iranian community has been the most affected so far. Hopefully everyone recovers.

Case 6: Woman, 30s, Fraser Health resident

B.C.’s sixth case of COVID-19 was announced Feb. 20 in a woman in her 30s who lives in the Fraser Health region. The woman had recently returned from a trip to Iran, where concerns are high over transmission after a sudden rash of cases in that country.

A number of close contacts of the woman were identified by health officials, including those on-board her flight to Vancouver, and were being monitored for symptoms.

B.C. woman diagnosed with COVID-19 after returning from Iran
Official health authorities’ statement on sixth case

Case 7: Man, 40s, Fraser Health resident

The province’s seventh case of COVID-19 was announced Feb. 24 in a man in his 40s. Officials say the man had been in contact with the woman in B.C.’s sixth case, though the man’s symptoms began before the woman had been officially diagnosed.

The man’s close contacts have been identified and officials are monitoring them for symptoms.

B.C. heath officials say seventh case of COVID-19 confirmed
Official health authorities’ statement on seventh case

Case 8: Woman, 60s, visitor from Iran

The province’s eighth case of COVID-19 was announced Feb. 29 in a woman in her 60s. Officials say the woman is visiting family in B.C. from Tehran. She did not have symptoms when she arrived in Canada, but soon became sick. She is in the Vancouver Coastal Health region, where she is in isolation at home.

The woman’s close contacts have been identified, and they are also in isolation.

Eighth case of COVID-19 recorded in B.C., first U.S. death near Seattle
Official health authorities’ statement on eighth case

Case 9: Man, 50s, Fraser Health resident

On March 3, 2020, officials confirmed four additional cases of COVID-19. The first of the four cases announced and the ninth overall in B.C. was confirmed in a Fraser Health region resident, a man in his 50s, who had recently returned home from travelling in Iran. The man is now in isolation and recovering.

One new case of COVID-19 in B.C., brings total to nine
Official health authorities’ statement on ninth case

Case 10: Man, 60s, Vancouver Coastal Health resident

On March 3, 2020, officials confirmed four additional cases of COVID-19. The second of the four cases announced and the 10th overall in B.C. was found in a Vancouver Coastal Health resident, a man in his 60s, who had recently returned home from travelling in Iran. The man is in isolation and recovering.

Number of COVID-19 cases in B.C. jumps to 12
Official health authorities’ statement on 10th, 11th and 12th cases

Case 11: Woman, no age given, Vancouver Coastal Health resident

On March 3, 2020, officials confirmed four additional cases of COVID-19. The third of the four cases announced and the 11th overall in B.C. was found in a Vancouver woman who had recently returned home from travelling in Iran. The woman is in isolation and recovering.

Number of COVID-19 cases in B.C. jumps to 12
Official health authorities’ statement on 10th, 11th and 12th cases

Case 12: Woman, 30s, Vancouver Coastal Health resident

On March 3, 2020, officials confirmed four additional cases of COVID-19. The fourth of the four cases announced and the 12th overall in B.C. was found in a Vancouver resident, a woman in her 30s, who is a household contact of Case 8 announced on Feb. 29.

Number of COVID-19 cases in B.C. jumps to 12
Official health authorities’ statement on 10th, 11th and 12th cases

Case 13: Woman, 80s, Vancouver Coastal Health resident

On March 4, 2020, officials said a woman in her 80s was confirmed to be the 13th case of COVID-19. The woman had returned to Vancouver during the last week of February after travelling as part of a group trip in Hong Kong and India. The woman became ill after returning home and was taken to Vancouver General Hospital in critical condition, where she remains in isolation.

Officials announced on March 10, 2020, that the woman had been released from hospital.

Elderly woman in ‘critical condition’ due to COVID-19, marking B.C.’s 13th case
Official health authorities statement on 13th case, in critical condition

Case 14, 15, 16 and 17: Two men, 20s and 30s, and two women, 50s and 60s, Vancouver Coastal Health residents

On March 5, 2020, officials announced eight new cases of COVID-19. Among those were cases were two men, in their 20s and 30s, and two women, in their 50s and 60s, who were the 14th, 15th, 16th and 17th cases of COVID-19. All four are close contacts of Case 10, a Vancouver man in his 60s who contracted the virus while travelling in Iran. All four individuals had been in isolation when symptoms surfaced.

Eight new cases of COVID-19 announced, including B.C.’s first case of community transmission
Official health authorities statement on 14th through 21st cases

Cases 18 and 19: Man, 60s, and woman, 50s, Vancouver Coastal Health residents

On March 5, 2020, officials announced eight new cases of COVID-19. Two of those cases were a man in his 60s and a woman in her 50s in the same household. The pair had recently returned from travelling in Iran.

Eight new cases of COVID-19 announced, including B.C.’s first case of community transmission
Official health authorities statement on 14th through 21st cases

Case 20: Woman, 50s, Seattle resident staying in the Fraser Health resident

On March 5, 2020, officials announced eight new cases of COVID-19. One of those is a Seattle resident, a woman in her 50s, who had been visiting family in the Fraser Health region. She remained in quarantine in the Fraser Health region for her recovery.

Eight new cases of COVID-19 announced, including B.C.’s first case of community transmission
Official health authorities statement on 14th through 21st cases

HOSPITALIZED – Case 21: Woman, 50s, Fraser Health resident and care home worker

On March 5, 2020, officials announced eight new cases of COVID-19. One of those is a Fraser Health resident, a woman in her 50s, with no recent travel and not known contacts who have recently travelled.

She was found to be infected after visiting a doctor for what she thought was the flu; she is considered B.C.’s first known case of community transmission. The woman also works at Lynn Valley Care Centre, a North Vancouver nursing home where two seniors have also tested positive for COVID-19.

On March 10, 2020, officials said the woman had been admitted to hospital for treatment.

https://vancouversun.com/news/local-news/covid-19-here-are-all-the-b-c-c...

 

Sean in Ottawa

kropotkin1951 wrote:

I know you must be stressed, given the Iranian Canadian connection to this pandemic but still please constrain yourself. I posted this in another thread as well but it is clear that the BC Iranian community has been the most affected so far. Hopefully everyone recovers.

 

Seriously - you jumped into a response when someone said they hoped that the people renting rooms in my house know that they do not have to pay me rent, the only income I have. These people still have incomes. The house runs because of this income. I have no issues with respect to the people in my house they are all cooperative and they are all aware people and we are supporting each other in every way we can. 

Your last comment reeks of insincerity given how you entered the conversation and all the context. I ask you to restrain yourself. You have barged into every disagreement I have had on this site and amplified it for the last two years. There is nothing you can add. You are not a neutral third party. You have chosen to fight at every opportunity. 

You know very well if NDPP and I had been reversed you would have jumped in on the other side and attacked me if I had said such a thing to him.

If you want this place to be more peaceful then just stop jumping into every disagreement where you want to attack someone with any opportunity. Now this thread that was interupted by one comment and then one comment from me has been derailed by you deciding to make a go of attacking me in both aggressive and passive aggressive ways making what was  possible a passing spat into a derailment.

There is no sympathy or concern from you to me that can be taken as sincere. You have no respect for each other. If you do not want to be a dick then do not engage on anything personal. I am not saying you should not add an opinion on a public topic as I may also do so but this tendency you have to interfere in disputes that have nothing to do with you in order to amplify them for your (entertainment?)  is pointless, predictable and boring. You will note that when you have fights with others I do not jump in.

And save yourself from pretending any personal concern about me or those close to me.

Yes I hope everyone recovers -- even you if you get it but there is no value in any personal comments between us. they simply will not be believed as authentic.

kropotkin1951
Sean in Ottawa

kropotkin1951 wrote:

Sean try this.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JnbjACXp-SE&feature=youtu.be

No. Kropotkin. Try stopping. You are out of control and this was none of your business until you decided to make it your hobby today.

NorthReport

Obviously we need to pay a lot more attention to the epidemologists as we could have significantly reduced the number of infected people had we listened to them a lot earlier and enforced physical distancing a lot sooner. 

NorthReport

CIENCE

Once Again, Florida Waited Too Long

My home state is an expert at sticking its head in the sand. But given the state’s older population and few precautions, I’m worried about what the coronavirus will do to it.

A beach crowded with people in swimsuits.

Beachgoers at Miami Beach on Wednesday.

Chandan Khanna/AFP via Getty Images

https://slate.com/technology/2020/03/florida-climate-change-coronavirus.html

NorthReport

And 2 of these 3 states border on Canada

Trump outlines national guard activations for New York, California and Washington

https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/22/politics/trump-coronavirus-task-force-briefing/index.html

NorthReport

One of Trump’s Evangelical Defenders Wrestles With Flattening the Curve

As the world shut down, the Rev. Robert Jeffress kept his megachurch open. But how long could he hold out?

https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2020/03/22/coronavirus-trump-robert-jeffress-evangelical-supporter-140355

NorthReport

There is something about pandemics that cause panicked people to empty their minds along with supermarket shelves. 

https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/22/world/doomsday-prophets-coronavirus-blake/index.html

NorthReport

“What we need is to control the panic,” he said. In the grand scheme, “we’re going to be fine.”

Why this Nobel laureate predicts a quicker coronavirus recovery: ‘We’re going to be fine’

https://www.latimes.com/science/story/2020-03-22/coronavirus-outbreak-nobel-laureate

NorthReport

Vancouver closes park and beach parking lots, outdoor recreation closing across Metro Vancouver

https://www.straight.com/life/1375251/covid-19-vancouver-closes-park-and-beach-parking-lots-outdoor-recreation-closing-across

Sean in Ottawa

NorthReport wrote:

“What we need is to control the panic,” he said. In the grand scheme, “we’re going to be fine.”

Why this Nobel laureate predicts a quicker coronavirus recovery: ‘We’re going to be fine’

https://www.latimes.com/science/story/2020-03-22/coronavirus-outbreak-nobel-laureate

Yes - it is difficult to both control the panic and have the population take this seriously. They seem to have both too much panic AND too many people not taking it seriously enough.

NorthReport

Vancouver skies fill with cheers of appreciation for health care workers (VIDEO)

Nightly tradition brings joyful sounds to city amid COVID-19 pandemic

https://www.nsnews.com/vancouver-skies-fill-with-cheers-of-appreciation-for-health-care-workers-video-1.24103687

NorthReport

Canada not participating in 2020 Olympics unless postponed

Michael Moriarity Michael Moriarity's picture

NorthReport

Hong Kong appeared to have the coronavirus under control, then it let its guard down

https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/23/asia/hong-kong-coronavirus-quarantine-intl-hnk/index.html

Sean in Ottawa

US Trump Administration seems to be moving away from CV19 mitigation measures becuase Trump did not get his massive support for business without adequate support for hospitals and individuals through congress.

If people need links I can find some but this has been widely reported.

Trump is now speaking about largely abandoning social distancing -- tweeting he may go in a different direction after 14 days - also tweeting that the cure of supporting people is worse than the disease of the damage to the economy (yes I am paraphrasing part of this but only in a very minor way).

The idea is that Americans can go back to work and will want to becuase the state will do nothing for them so this is their best option as individuals. The vulnerable people will choose to gamble on the disease rather than certain economic devastation at an individual level. Blackmail? Of course.

If this direction is taken in the end (if Trump is not talked out of it) then the US will be all-in gambling on a quick vaccine - virtually a nil chance; a repurposed drug - a moderate to low but real chance; or advanced testing that can isolate the sick people - a moderate chance. None of these are likely to be in time to avoid an Italy style catastrophe just south of us.

The thing is it may not matter in the US. The rich will get their care; the poor and middle people will die - perhaps by the million; the economy will recover and the rich will not care.

What is happening is a dramatic escalation of the core political ideology and philosophy of the US.

There will be substantial propaganda that the poor who survive will benefit from helping the economy for the rich and America will stumble on. The rest of the world will look on in horror. The US economy will recover as it did after 2008 (for the fortunate) and the markets will rise again once the bloodletting of massive numbers of people is over. They might even keep rising until after Trump is re-elected.

The plan is to let millions die to preserve the fortunes of the rich who will in turn have enough money to buy Trump's re-election. The gamble is that enough of the US is stupid enough for this to succeed. The crazy thing is that this might be an odds-even bet. Considering that Trump could lose and maybe go to jail if the economy tumbles (Americans who vote for Trump could not care less about most people), it seems like a reasonable bet for a psychopath to sacrifice a few million people for the cause. 

And so the United Stupid of America trucks on.

What does this mean for Canada? Nothing good. It impacts our own systems as the border cannot be firmly shut. The eventual US collapse will certainly damage Canada worse than caring for people now would have.

There is a chance that this will damage Trump enough for him to lose; that others around him will restrain this crazy direction. None of this is certain. But the risk is very real that things will go this way.

Even just an ideologically bad President might be less dangerous. But this guy is ideologically extreme; personally probably a pyschopath and at least a malevolent narcissist; intellectually dim - at best. 

NorthReport

We Face Two Stark Choices for Dealing with COVID-19

What ‘Report 9’ means when it compares ‘mitigation or suppression.’

https://thetyee.ca/Analysis/2020/03/20/We-Face-Two-Stark-Choices-COVID-19/

NorthReport

Huge threat to Canada, even with the border substantially closed #cdnpoli

https://twitter.com/nspector4/status/1242450241355272192

NorthReport

Trump's push to shorten coronavirus shutdown proves the captain is flying blind

To watch Trump is to witness the awesome and terrifying power of the American president over life and death – a burden he is unqualified to bear

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/24/trumps-push-to-shorten-the-coronavirus-shutdown-proves-the-captain-is-flying-blind

NorthReport

A lot of people's dreams are going to be crushed by this pandemic!

NorthReport

 

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NorthReport

Italian professor repeats warning coronavirus may have spread outside China last year

  • Giuseppe Remuzzi’s comments were seized on by Chinese state media amid the acrimonious row with the US, but he says the key question is how far Covid-19 had spread before it was identified
  • Academic says ‘strange pneumonias’ in Italy last November suggest it may have reached Europe before anyone knew what the disease was

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/science/article/3076792/italian-professor-repeats-warning-coronavirus-may-have-spread

Sean in Ottawa

NorthReport wrote:

A lot of people's dreams are going to be crushed by this pandemic!

Too late to call this a prediction.

Sean in Ottawa

NorthReport wrote:

Italian professor repeats warning coronavirus may have spread outside China last year

  • Giuseppe Remuzzi’s comments were seized on by Chinese state media amid the acrimonious row with the US, but he says the key question is how far Covid-19 had spread before it was identified
  • Academic says ‘strange pneumonias’ in Italy last November suggest it may have reached Europe before anyone knew what the disease was

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/science/article/3076792/italian-professor-repeats-warning-coronavirus-may-have-spread

The source of the virus is not certain. Those who beleive it started in China, and there is some evidence of that, are not contradicted by what this professor is saying. It is possible that it was in China earlier and spread outside earlier. In fact, if it had been circulating in China undetected it would have passed outside as well.

I have long belived this.

My reasoning is that this virus is more dangerous to  more vulnerable people and so could take quite a toll before being detected. Even the fact that younger people can die does not mean that it cannot have been hidden in a rise in deaths among young people that could go undetected. It presents like a bad flu unless identified. It could have been missed by many countries before taking a firmer hold in Wuhan to the point that it could no longer be missed.

I also wonder how many other viruses are undetected becuase they make people less sick. If you get well and only vulnerable people die, you would just assume a flu. How many cases of the flu are examined under a microscope?

Michael Moriarity Michael Moriarity's picture

From TPM: Texas Lt. Gov. Gets Roasted After He Suggests The Elderly Should Die For The Economy. Or, as twitter user @pixelatedboat put it:

NorthReport

Per cent of Canadians that have acquired the virus so far  0.00005902702%

Sean in Ottawa

NorthReport wrote:

Per cent of Canadians that have acquired the virus so far  0.00005902702%

Not true. Please be careful about passing stuff like this on or making statements like this.

This is a percentage of people with symptoms, who have been deemed a priority to test, who have been tested and who have had the result returned as a positive.

Probably the number who have been infected is a much greater number - but the number is unknown.

This is not your odds of coming in contact with a person with the virus and the way you worded it comes across like it is.

MegB
Douglas Fir Premier

 

Jerry Falwell Jr defies calls for coronavirus closures and reopens Liberty University

Every state that borders Virginia needs to close it's borders. Every city and town that borders Lynchburg, Virginia needs to close their streets to through traffic. Waze shouldn't give directions that even drive past Liberty University. - @wkamaubell

Misfit Misfit's picture

Douglas Fir Premier wrote:

 

Jerry Falwell Jr defies calls for coronavirus closures and reopens Liberty University

Every state that borders Virginia needs to close it's borders. Every city and town that borders Lynchburg, Virginia needs to close their streets to through traffic. Waze shouldn't give directions that even drive past Liberty University. - @wkamaubell

its all about the money.

NorthReport

Best wishes jerrym

NorthReport

'We are collapsing': Virus pummels medics in Spain and Italy

The coronavirus is waging a war of attrition against health care workers around the world

https://abcnews.go.com/Health/wireStory/collapsing-virus-pummels-medics-spain-italy-69789413

NorthReport

Canada has 2,792 confirmed cases which is approximately 0.007545945% of our population

https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

Michael Moriarity Michael Moriarity's picture

NorthReport wrote:

Canada has 2,792 confirmed cases which is approximately 0.00007545945% of our population

https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

You don't know how to calculate percentages. You have to multiply by 100, so the actual percent is 0.00754. Still a small number, but it is highly likely that the actual number of infected people is 10 or 100 times higher than the confirmed cases, and it is growing exponentially. As jerrym has testified, it is very difficult for anyone who isn't in imminent danger of death to get a test. Thus the vast majority of all infections will never be confirmed, because of inadequate testing.

NDPP

Yes. Because Canada has so alarmingly failed to adequately test, we don't really know the true extent and community spread of the virus.  I have an old friend in Vancouver who is the sole caregiver for a 90 year old mother with advanced dementia. She has lost her job, is also now sick with what she strongly suspects is COVID, and is deathly afraid of infecting her mum. Rent day is coming soon and her funds are running out, community supports she previously relied upon are shut down or no longer available and all attempts to access testing have been refused. She is being told she cannot be tested until her symptoms are 'life-threatening'. There will be many cases such as these or worse behind the Liberal government's relentless PR extravaganza which relentlessly tells us 'We have your back.' They don't. Note even close.

NorthReport

That's correct, according to the John Hopkins virus map, Canada has 2,792 confirmed cases which is approximately about 0.007545945% of our population.

NorthReport

US on track to become next coronavirus epicenter, but there's time to reverse course, health official says

https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/25/health/coronavirus-state-actions-wednesday/index.html

NorthReport

Sign of the times

Spa for sale in West Vancouver $1

(Prior to the virus outbreak the Spa was listed for $200,000)

Sean in Ottawa

Interesting and disturbing is the death vs recovery rate of countries. In particular look at the US.

View by countries.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

Sean in Ottawa

Interesting and disturbing is the death vs recovery rate of countries. In particular look at the US.

View by countries.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

Total 21,278 deaths 113,827 recovered in the world

USA 1027 deaths 394 recovered

There are a number of ways to interpret this. The first could be that the death rate is much higher in the US. Given how stark this number is, I do not think this is possible. There is a better interpretation.

I believe the reason the recovery rate is so low vs the death rate is that the US is (or at least was) only diagnosing the most serious cases and that many, many more have had it but are not in the statistics. This gives a clue about the number of cases expected in the near future.

So assume the 394 is x. Multiply 1027 by 113,827 and divide it by 21278. The answer is 5493.

This is the number of recovered expected on global average based on the death number of 1027.

Subtract 394 from 5493 and you get 5099. This is the number of people shedding the disease recently who have now recovered who did not know they had it. 

5943 is 15 times 394. This means that the unknown caseload, based on global averages, is 15 times the known caseload - if global averages of diagnosis were used. (Other countries also would have missed cases but this just brings the US to the global average.)

The result suggests that the US if they had been testing at the world average rate would have diagnosed 15 times the number of cases meaning their caseload now may not be 68,211. It may actually be over a million using interenational standard of testing.

Now I know you could say that they have been increasing their testing so this may not be as extreme. However, this virus transmission is exponential so a 15x mistake weeks ago is unlikely to be mitigated even with increased testing where the bulk of the population as yet is still not being tested (only a fraction have been). Still I would estimate that more than half a million have the virus now and over time the US statistics will bear this out. This does not consider the continued exponential rise from this number over time. In the coming weeks this under-reporting will show up along with new cases. The total number of cases will never be known unless they test for antibodies as they will never know how many recovered. However the death rate will reflect the expected percentage of this much higher infection rate.

I hope I have explained my logic clearly enough.

 

Pondering

The numbers are only a vague indication because there is no common methodology even within Canada. We are going to see a sudden massive spike because of increased testing but that doesn't mean it just spread like that in a day. It will be weeks before we can see if we have been successful in flattening the curve.

Even death numbers can't be trusted because many of those who didn't die in hospital are not counted. I think in reading the numbers we have to take into account the actions various areas and countries are taken. Experts say our numbers are a week to three weeks late because that is the gestation period. We are still testing people with symptoms not everyone although Quebec is advancing rapidly on that. 

I don't know what is happening everywhere but any place my siser or myself have gone over the past week has been deserted. In the plateau it appears people are respecting social distancing. They are doing so in my building as well. Only one person gets in the elevator at a time.  In Pierrefonds people are also respecting distancing. From media reports not everyone is following the rules but it does seem like most people are. It is possible we are already flattening the curve but we won't know that for weeks. That is, the people showing symptoms now caught it 5 to 24 days ago with I think the average closer to 5 than 24. More testing will mask any progress we have made with social distancing. 

Even though in some countries some deaths have not been counted I think that is less likely in the early stages where we and the US are. 

So because of the lack of testing I find the death rate to be a better measure even though it is still not a solid number. I think watching the death rate will be the best way to get a handle on what is really happening. They are more likely to be counted accurately. 

The other indicator is how fast jurisdictions and individuals are taking precautions. 

I am horrified by what is going on in the US. No matter what the numbers indicate the news tells me there are areas of the country that believe Trump. He still has very high support. Whatever numbers Texas is reporting now, I know they are going to be devastated I wonder how they will feel about Trump after their hospitals are overflowing and they don't have enough medical supplies and people are dying young and old. 

It's going to get worse before it gets better and there are still non-believers in Canada. We acted a week or two late. Even so I think Canada is going to do reasonably well because we have acted. Our hospitals will still be overwhelmed but it won't be like what is happening in New York. Canada will flatten the curve faster that most. 

 

Sean in Ottawa

Yesterday I went to Walmart to fill a perscription. I was shocked becuase half the people were taking no precautions at all. The store was crowded.

The distancing in person and masks may or may not be that effective even though they are essential and will help. The effective distancing is staying home.

The reason is that when people exhale the droplets take a while to settle. the enter through the eyes as well as the nose and mouth.

A study done by National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases' Laboratory of Virology in the Division of Intramural Research in Hamilton, Montana helps to answer this question. The researchers used a nebulizer to blow coronaviruses into the air. They found that infectious viruses could remain in the air for up to three hours. The results of the study were published in the New England Journal of Medicine on March 17, 2020.

https://www.health.harvard.edu/diseases-and-conditions/coronavirus-resource-center

With the above having a person who just left the elevator 5 minutes ago does not allow you to be protected -- or the person who was in the grocery aisle a few moments ago but is not visible anymore.

Pondering as you said you were over 60 -- your best bet is to stay home and get someone to bring things to you.

Pondering

I saw a report on CBC or CTV that suggests the situation mentioned above is not normal. 

They shot a nebulizer into the air  and the air must have been quite still. It is best case scenario for the virus. By far the most likely point of contact is a person coughing towards you within a couple of feet difference. It's a virus not a mold. It begins to die as soon as it no longer has a host. It may linger on in ideal conditions but it will never grow so if a droplet falls on a cardboard box even if you touch it you are unlikely to be contaminated especially if you wash your hands afterwards.

I also don't think the other dwellers in my building are going to go around coughing on stuff and not telling anyone. Really you can't sneeze in this building without everyone finding out about it. Everyone here is of reasonably sound mind if not body and has been glued to the news. The halls are deserted. 

I will be doing meal delivery in my building. I will take the recommended precautions. Keep my distance, sanitize after touching anything, wash my hands as soon as I get home. It is highly contagious but it is still subject to the laws of science. 

If my building were a lot busier I would be more concerned but as it is low traffic I feel confident. In fact I could take the stairs up then when going back up both elevators are usually waiting at the ground floor with the doors closed. I would know if someone had been in the elevator immediately before me. 

We share a laundry room but everyone is respecting distances and it rarely being used by more than one person. 

There are some people in my building that use walkers and wheelchairs and are not strong. I know at least 3 that haven't left the building since October and one hasn't left her apartment since October. 

No one is allowed past the lobby and the building is not staffed so residents have to come down. This will go on for months and I would rather we don't have people coming into the building other than cleaning staff and personal care workers. Either someone in the building steps up and does it or they will have to make exceptions for delivery people. If they do that people will start having friends and relatives deliver stuff. 

Better to just deliver things for people who can't get downstairs. I know how to be careful and the fewer people that enter the building the safer it is. I would be worried for myself if I caught it but many people in my building are far more vulnerable. 

Misfit Misfit's picture

Pondering wrote, "Experts say our numbers are a week to three weeks late because that is the gestation period."

is it really? Where did you find this? Then if the gestation period is theee weeks why are people quarantining for only two?

NorthReport

Close to 500,000 confirmed cases now, with the USA closing in on 2nd place after China. Canada is in 14th place countrywide with 3,400 cases.

https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html

 

Sean in Ottawa

Misfit wrote:

Pondering wrote, "Experts say our numbers are a week to three weeks late because that is the gestation period."

is it really? Where did you find this? Then if the gestation period is theee weeks why are people quarantining for only two?

I have seen reports like this and can explain more.

There are reports that people may shed virus at a low level before showing symptoms and at a low level for a time after.

Symptoms are usually present for a couple weeks. Incubation varies. You are correct when you consider all this that the 14 days does not seem to be enough to guarantee but the risk is not zero for people outside quarantine. 

Take for example this: 

Median incubation (period before symptoms) is 5.1 days and "97.5% of individuals displaying symptoms within 11.5 days"

https://www.publichealthontario.ca/-/media/documents/ncov/research-lauer-anninternmed-the-incubation-period.pdf?la=en

Then you have the duration of the symptoms.

BC health has put this clearer:

The BC Ministry of Health strongly urges anyone who has symptoms including a fever, cough, sneezing or sore throat to self-isolate for 10 days from onset of symptoms. Self-isolate for 14 days if you have no symptoms but might have been exposed to some with COVID-19.

...After 10 days, if your temperature is normal and you feel better, you can return to normal activities. Coughing may persist for several weeks, so a cough alone does not mean you need to continue to self-isolate for more than 10 days from onset of symptoms. Even after you feel better, stay at home when possible and continue to practice physical distancing.

Now what is concerning is that those who are tested without symptoms and told to self isolate for 14 days are not always getting the correct advice if you consider the above. If they had no symptoms and were tested anyway and were positive, they should restart the clock when symptoms appear and wait 14 days in isolation even if those resolve quickly. It should be 14 days from the onset. this would have to be a low number since few cases resolve that fast and few get tested without symptoms. Only a fraction  of these could be expected to be also thoughs with a longer duration in this.

Still, this is an average. There are cases of people having it for longer and shedding it at low levels after that. There is no evidence that the level they are shedding it at at that point is enough to cause an infection. Thus the average of 14 days but this 14 days should be from onset of symptoms not exposure.

So back to Pondering's point. If onset of exposure is day one, symptoms would appear average 5 days later (could be more than 10). Then with symptoms, the person could be sick for a while before they react if they are mild. This could be two weeks. Then if they get tested the results can take a week or more given the backlogs. This means three weeks. From then they may be isolated for the next 2 weeks and longer if they become seriously ill.

This does not include secondary and terciery infection from those people infecting others before they know they were infected.

Add to this the possibility that people who have recovered are possibly still infections after they appear healthy (not known absolutely) and you have a very long period of uncertainty. This is why the Ontario document I showed at the outset included this statement:

The authors state that longer active monitoring or quarantine periods may be justified in highrisk scenarios; e.g., a health care worker that cared for a COVID-19 patient without personal protective equipment.  

It looks to me like the 14 day period is not a guarantee but rather a compromise intended to catch the greatest number of cases. This is the international norm so did not come from Canada. It is likely that there is a trade-off here in terms of disruption and risk with risk being so low out of the period (14 days from onset of symptoms) that this risk is lower than the risk of undiagnosesed community transmission. By this I mean the person being released from quarantine is below the level of risk of the average person outside quarantine but the risk is not zero. I find the logic here does make sense.

Pondering's delay reference includes a period of incubation and wait for symptoms, testing and then a wait for results. In that she is correct the period is roughly 3 weeks on average. This does not contradict the 14-day incubation period to bring a person below the level of risk of a person outside quarantine.

So Pondering's point about this as a delay in case numbers is a different point than the length of period needed for quarantine.

I hope this explains this a bit more clearly.

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