Living in the SARS-CoV-2 era (physical distancing, good hygiene and masks)

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NorthReport
Pondering

The one to three weeks is just in reference to flattening the curve. There is a delayed reaction before the numbers reflect our efforts. So, even though we are practicing social distancing now we won't see the effects of that for a week or more. Numbers will keep rising even if we are doing everything right due to the delayed reaction. 

In Quebec we closed schools on March 13th and retail stores on the 23rd. 

So as a ballpark for when measures started having a significant impact on speed of spread is March 23rd for me. 

Another complication is that we weren't counting as we are now. Testing is just ramping up so death numbers will be more of an indication of what is (or was) really happening.

If I pick March 23rd that means people infected up to then will keep showing up in the numbers for one to three weeks after that bringing us to between March 30th and April 6th. Until then we can expect numbers to continue rising dramatically. 

We can only hope to see the numbers beginning to drop in Quebec in the first week of April but it could take longer. That is, today's numbers reflect the past. 

NorthReport

SCIENCE

Please, Let’s Stop the Epidemic of Armchair Epidemiology

Ignore the people misconstruing their expertise and offering false certainty.

https://slate.com/technology/2020/03/armchair-epidemiology-coronavirus.html

Sean in Ottawa

Pondering wrote:

The one to three weeks is just in reference to flattening the curve. There is a delayed reaction before the numbers reflect our efforts. So, even though we are practicing social distancing now we won't see the effects of that for a week or more. Numbers will keep rising even if we are doing everything right due to the delayed reaction. 

In Quebec we closed schools on March 13th and retail stores on the 23rd. 

So as a ballpark for when measures started having a significant impact on speed of spread is March 23rd for me. 

Another complication is that we weren't counting as we are now. Testing is just ramping up so death numbers will be more of an indication of what is (or was) really happening.

If I pick March 23rd that means people infected up to then will keep showing up in the numbers for one to three weeks after that bringing us to between March 30th and April 6th. Until then we can expect numbers to continue rising dramatically. 

We can only hope to see the numbers beginning to drop in Quebec in the first week of April but it could take longer. That is, today's numbers reflect the past. 

Youare being optimistic. Quebec cases rising rapidly. One reason for this is the number of snowbirds who returned to Quebec possibly already infected and then driving up through very dangerous parts of the US when it comes to this virus. Quebec cases are just starting to expand following the return of these people - a return that has not ended. The testing and transmission are not things they can keep up with. The medical emergencies will come later. Stay at home. Stay safe. This is a longer lasting problem.

bekayne

Sean in Ottawa wrote:

Yesterday I went to Walmart to fill a perscription. I was shocked becuase half the people were taking no precautions at all. The store was crowded.

The store was doing nothing? When I went to the Independent (supermarket) here in Kelowna yesterday people were being let in only one at a time as other customers left. Every one waiting outside had 6 feet between them, same for the checkout lines inside.

Misfit Misfit's picture

Thanks to both Pondering and Sean.

I was exposed to someone who came from overseas and was ordered from his place of work to quarantine for 14 days late last Thursday. I, then, effectively started my own quarantine on Friday.
 

Now, on Friday morning, day one, I started to get very mild symptoms that exactly mimicked the very symptoms of Covid-19 in a distinct and strong way. They lasted for a few hours and then suddenly went away.

I don't know if I am a hypochondriac wacknut who  willed this through worrying, if it is unrelated to covid-19,  if it is a murmur that I am going to get a rupture of major symptoms down the road a full blown illness or if I did contract Covid-19 and that was the extent of it for me.

I have been very worried that I did get Covid. I have been to the hospital for treatments twice, two weeks ago today, and last week before I went to work and got exposed to that overseas guy who went on quarantine.

I am very worried now that I may have spread covid to others in the hospital. 

I was supposed to go to the hospital today for a third treatment but I cancelled due to my quarantine.

I was planning on quarantining myself for two weeks but if I need to isolate for theee then I will.

Anyway this is my situation and dilemma and why I was asking.

I am aware that if my symptoms was due to Covid-19 that I did not get it from the guy from overseas the night before. The day before and eight days before these symptoms briefly occurred I was at the hospital. I could have been spreading Covid-19 to others.

NorthReport

What Should We Do with These Super Spreader Bozos?

https://thetyee.ca/Culture/2020/03/26/Please-Advise-Super-Spreaders/

Sean in Ottawa

Misfit wrote:

Thanks to both Pondering and Sean.

I was exposed to someone who came from overseas and was ordered from his place of work to quarantine for 14 days late last Thursday. I, then, effectively started my own quarantine on Friday.
 

Now, on Friday morning, day one, I started to get very mild symptoms that exactly mimicked the very symptoms of Covid-19 in a distinct and strong way. They lasted for a few hours and then suddenly went away.

I don't know if I am a hypochondriac wacknut who  willed this through worrying, if it is unrelated to covid-19,  if it is a murmur that I am going to get a rupture of major symptoms down the road a full blown illness or if I did contract Covid-19 and that was the extent of it for me.

I have been very worried that I did get Covid. I have been to the hospital for treatments twice, two weeks ago today, and last week before I went to work and got exposed to that overseas guy who went on quarantine.

I am very worried now that I may have spread covid to others in the hospital. 

I was supposed to go to the hospital today for a third treatment but I cancelled due to my quarantine.

I was planning on quarantining myself for two weeks but if I need to isolate for theee then I will.

Anyway this is my situation and dilemma and why I was asking.

I am aware that if my symptoms was due to Covid-19 that I did not get it from the guy from overseas the night before. The day before and eight days before these symptoms briefly occurred I was at the hospital. I could have been spreading Covid-19 to others.

I am sorry to hear this. I hope you will recover well. 

It is normal that a crisis like this will affect people in many ways. The stress is monumental.

All I can offer you is to suggest that you should not feel guilty for unknowly spreading the virus if that happened at all. We cannot do better than what you are doing. The reson this virus is so dangerous is in part becuase it is difficult to detect at first.

I hope you contacted the hospital and got advice on what to do about your treatment and that this was reasonable.

I have heard that those who start with mild symptoms that do not progress quickly usually it stays mild. I hope this is the case for you.

 

Misfit Misfit's picture

Sean in Ottawa wrote:

Misfit wrote:

Thanks to both Pondering and Sean.

I was exposed to someone who came from overseas and was ordered from his place of work to quarantine for 14 days late last Thursday. I, then, effectively started my own quarantine on Friday.
 

Now, on Friday morning, day one, I started to get very mild symptoms that exactly mimicked the very symptoms of Covid-19 in a distinct and strong way. They lasted for a few hours and then suddenly went away.

I don't know if I am a hypochondriac wacknut who  willed this through worrying, if it is unrelated to covid-19,  if it is a murmur that I am going to get a rupture of major symptoms down the road a full blown illness or if I did contract Covid-19 and that was the extent of it for me.

I have been very worried that I did get Covid. I have been to the hospital for treatments twice, two weeks ago today, and last week before I went to work and got exposed to that overseas guy who went on quarantine.

I am very worried now that I may have spread covid to others in the hospital. 

I was supposed to go to the hospital today for a third treatment but I cancelled due to my quarantine.

I was planning on quarantining myself for two weeks but if I need to isolate for theee then I will.

Anyway this is my situation and dilemma and why I was asking.

I am aware that if my symptoms was due to Covid-19 that I did not get it from the guy from overseas the night before. The day before and eight days before these symptoms briefly occurred I was at the hospital. I could have been spreading Covid-19 to others.

I am sorry to hear this. I hope you will recover well. 

It is normal that a crisis like this will affect people in many ways. The stress is monumental.

All I can offer you is to suggest that you should not feel guilty for unknowly spreading the virus if that happened at all. We cannot do better than what you are doing. The reson this virus is so dangerous is in part becuase it is difficult to detect at first.

I hope you contacted the hospital and got advice on what to do about your treatment and that this was reasonable.

I have heard that those who start with mild symptoms that do not progress quickly usually it stays mild. I hope this is the case for you.

 

I phoned and cancelled my treatment that was scheduled for today last Friday when I went into quarantine. I want to wait until I know that I will not spread anything to book my next appointment.  If that is three weeks from my start of wyluarantine then I will postpone it until then.

Sean in Ottawa

Misfit wrote:

Sean in Ottawa wrote:

Misfit wrote:

Thanks to both Pondering and Sean.

I was exposed to someone who came from overseas and was ordered from his place of work to quarantine for 14 days late last Thursday. I, then, effectively started my own quarantine on Friday.
 

Now, on Friday morning, day one, I started to get very mild symptoms that exactly mimicked the very symptoms of Covid-19 in a distinct and strong way. They lasted for a few hours and then suddenly went away.

I don't know if I am a hypochondriac wacknut who  willed this through worrying, if it is unrelated to covid-19,  if it is a murmur that I am going to get a rupture of major symptoms down the road a full blown illness or if I did contract Covid-19 and that was the extent of it for me.

I have been very worried that I did get Covid. I have been to the hospital for treatments twice, two weeks ago today, and last week before I went to work and got exposed to that overseas guy who went on quarantine.

I am very worried now that I may have spread covid to others in the hospital. 

I was supposed to go to the hospital today for a third treatment but I cancelled due to my quarantine.

I was planning on quarantining myself for two weeks but if I need to isolate for theee then I will.

Anyway this is my situation and dilemma and why I was asking.

I am aware that if my symptoms was due to Covid-19 that I did not get it from the guy from overseas the night before. The day before and eight days before these symptoms briefly occurred I was at the hospital. I could have been spreading Covid-19 to others.

I am sorry to hear this. I hope you will recover well. 

It is normal that a crisis like this will affect people in many ways. The stress is monumental.

All I can offer you is to suggest that you should not feel guilty for unknowly spreading the virus if that happened at all. We cannot do better than what you are doing. The reson this virus is so dangerous is in part becuase it is difficult to detect at first.

I hope you contacted the hospital and got advice on what to do about your treatment and that this was reasonable.

I have heard that those who start with mild symptoms that do not progress quickly usually it stays mild. I hope this is the case for you.

 

I phoned and cancelled my treatment that was scheduled for today last Friday when I went into quarantine. I want to wait until I know that I will not spread anything to book my next appointment.  If that is three weeks from my start of wyluarantine then I will postpone it until then.

I hope you will be okay.

laine lowe laine lowe's picture

Misfit, I hope everything works out for you and you are found free of the virus so you can continue your treatments. Take care.

NorthReport

USA has now had the most confirmed cases

NorthReport

Alberta's economic decline is going to be the most severe it has ever been - RBC

Pondering

Misfit, while there are some people who it seems only showed symptoms much later there is also suspicion that they may have been another exposure.  The norm is five or six days after exposure. After that you could still have it, still be contagious, but it is much less likely, Even if you have it there is no need to get checked out unless it turns severe. 

Good Luck. 

 

Misfit Misfit's picture

laine lowe wrote:

Misfit, I hope everything works out for you and you are found free of the virus so you can continue your treatments. Take care.

Thanks Laine.

Sean in Ottawa

The latest news in Canada is that the distancing is expected to flatten the curve so Canada may not suffer as badly. Many people (including myself) face ruin but those covered may come out okay. It is also possible that enough poeple in my situation will persuade the government to do something.

The US is in another position. The notion that they could sacrifice the old to save the economy is being rightly condemned for its inhumanity. It also should be condemned for the fact that it cannot work.

There are many reasons why it cannot work but here is another.

In a country with national health: A national healthsystem will run out of capacity becuase of the demand as we all have discussed. In the US there is a second problem: these are private hospitals. 

If you have widespread transmission AND you have major jobloss you have a massive number of people without insurance. Hospitals in the US are not allowed to turn them away (although they send a bill later). People will worry less about bankruptcy if they cannot breathe. These private hospitals could be flooded with millions of people who will never be able to pay. The losses will have to be picked up in one of four ways:

1) Hospitals go bankrupt creating a chain reaction in the US economy -- healthcare is big business in the US and this takes down more and more healthcare insurance as many of these hospitals are owned by the same funds and companies

2) The government allows them to refuse patients without insurance or allow only rudimentary care in which case you will have massive social unrest and this would tank the economy.

3) The government backs up credit for people to pay the hospitals later in which case the debt burden creates a ripple effect through the economy breaking it into a very long recession without any recovery in the medium term

4) The government pick up the tab at the horrendous cost that means. The US government cannot do that without creating a debt load on top of the present debtload and on top of everything else it must do. The government will face a complete lack of confidence in its finances and the economy will collapse as a result

Flattening the curve in the US is as much an economic need as it is a medical one.

Misfit Misfit's picture

After a big crisis like this, people may start to listen to Bernie Sanders.

Sean in Ottawa

Misfit wrote:

After a big crisis like this, people may start to listen to Bernie Sanders.

Certainly... Capitalism could be a dirtier word in the US than socialism before this is over.

NorthReport

BC may have some good news.

Physical distancing has halved spread of COVID-19 in B.C., official modelling suggests

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/physical-distancing-bc-covid19-coronavirus-1.5512269

Sean in Ottawa

NorthReport wrote:

BC may have some good news.

Physical distancing has halved spread of COVID-19 in B.C., official modelling suggests

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/physical-distancing-bc-covid19-coronavirus-1.5512269

I saw a study yesterday suggesting that other parts of Canada are also better off.

I think Quebec will remain hard hit due to a massive return from Florida, however, the government there seems to be managing well and after a time where the cases will rise due to this, I suspect they will stabilize. The problem is Quebec has one of the most over stretched health systems in the country. Gatineau is extremely bad and relies on help from Ottawa. Ottawa is one of the worst parts of Ontario for healthcare. We are not yet as badly hit though. It is possible that Ottawa will do better in the end due to a highly unionized workforce that is taking distancing seriously.

NorthReport
Sean in Ottawa

Speaking of BC does anyone know if Kropotkin is okay? I cannot stand his personality but he is a human being and I know he is older and from BC where they have had a lot of cases. I would not want him to become ill.

kropotkin1951

Thanks for your concern, I am just fine. My name says my age and that is 69 and I had pneumonia a few years ago so I am in a high risk category. I had to get out today to buy essential supplies, one of those things being a new keyboard. There is a purgatory like feeling to staying at home and only being able to read what people are saying but not having a working keyboard.

I went to various stores and people are practicing physical distancing and the stores are all wiping things down as people are shopping. We have a laundry room that is between our garage and the main part of the house so I washed down everything I bought with rubbing alcohol and stripped off my clothes and then had a shower.  So now I am feeling worry free from my outdoor excursion into the world of humans. The video below covers the basics of getting things into the house safely.

My wife and I are very lucky to live beside the community forest and while all our parks, that have any equipment, are closed the walking trails are open and we hike 5 to 6 km in the woods almost everyday, now that we don't have anywhere else to go.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sjDuwc9KBps

Aristotleded24

Sean in Ottawa wrote:

Misfit wrote:

After a big crisis like this, people may start to listen to Bernie Sanders.

Certainly... Capitalism could be a dirtier word in the US than socialism before this is over.

Think about what has happened this century. You've had the front end of the millenial generation that was ready to enter the job market just as the bottom fell out of the US economy in 2007. The job market they had prepared for never really materialized. Instead, they had to take jobs in the gig economy, and essentially give up any hopes of ever buying a house or starting a family. Now you have the generation after them facing even bleaker situations, plus they are staring down a planet that may no longer be liveable in a short while. They've never known any economic security, they have their own sources of information, and they don't rely on the MSM for their news. Do you think any of this is going to go over well with them?

Aristotleded24

Sean in Ottawa wrote:
Misfit wrote:

Thanks to both Pondering and Sean.

I was exposed to someone who came from overseas and was ordered from his place of work to quarantine for 14 days late last Thursday. I, then, effectively started my own quarantine on Friday.
 

Now, on Friday morning, day one, I started to get very mild symptoms that exactly mimicked the very symptoms of Covid-19 in a distinct and strong way. They lasted for a few hours and then suddenly went away.

I don't know if I am a hypochondriac wacknut who  willed this through worrying, if it is unrelated to covid-19,  if it is a murmur that I am going to get a rupture of major symptoms down the road a full blown illness or if I did contract Covid-19 and that was the extent of it for me.

I have been very worried that I did get Covid. I have been to the hospital for treatments twice, two weeks ago today, and last week before I went to work and got exposed to that overseas guy who went on quarantine.

I am very worried now that I may have spread covid to others in the hospital. 

I was supposed to go to the hospital today for a third treatment but I cancelled due to my quarantine.

I was planning on quarantining myself for two weeks but if I need to isolate for theee then I will.

Anyway this is my situation and dilemma and why I was asking.

I am aware that if my symptoms was due to Covid-19 that I did not get it from the guy from overseas the night before. The day before and eight days before these symptoms briefly occurred I was at the hospital. I could have been spreading Covid-19 to others.

I am sorry to hear this. I hope you will recover well. 

It is normal that a crisis like this will affect people in many ways. The stress is monumental.

All I can offer you is to suggest that you should not feel guilty for unknowly spreading the virus if that happened at all. We cannot do better than what you are doing. The reson this virus is so dangerous is in part becuase it is difficult to detect at first.

I hope you contacted the hospital and got advice on what to do about your treatment and that this was reasonable.

I have heard that those who start with mild symptoms that do not progress quickly usually it stays mild. I hope this is the case for you.

Hi Misfit,

So sorry to hear that you are feeling under the weather. I hope you get better soon. I agree with Sean to not beat yourself up too badly about possibly exposing other people. Just recently, an Ontario MP who is a nurse by profession also tested positive for coronavirus. As a medical professional, she has greater knowledge and goes to greater length to protect herself than the rest of us, and she still got sick. That's the problem with relying too much on individual behaviour, and it underscores the point made by the World Health Organisation about the importance of mass testing being available.

Sean in Ottawa

kropotkin1951 wrote:

Thanks for your concern, I am just fine. My name says my age and that is 69 and I had pneumonia a few years ago so I am in a high risk category. I had to get out today to buy essential supplies, one of those things being a new keyboard. There is a purgatory like feeling to staying at home and only being able to read what people are saying but not having a working keyboard.

I went to various stores and people are practicing physical distancing and the stores are all wiping things down as people are shopping. We have a laundry room that is between our garage and the main part of the house so I washed down everything I bought with rubbing alcohol and stripped off my clothes and then had a shower.  So now I am feeling worry free from my outdoor excursion into the world of humans. The video below covers the basics of getting things into the house safely.

My wife and I are very lucky to live beside the community forest and while all our parks, that have any equipment, are closed the walking trails are open and we hike 5 to 6 km in the woods almost everyday, now that we don't have anywhere else to go.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sjDuwc9KBps

I am very glad that you are okay.

This is a good video -- I am watching it now. Thanks for posting it -- I think it is the best I have seen. I strongly recommend it and will send it to others.

It seems similar to the advice I was getting from well-informed Iranians. The process we use is similar although we use two bins rather than a tabletop. We did not try to throw out the outer containers like bread for fear of the outside packaging touching the food. Instead I just santitize. I was wondering about how to handle fruit and his way was better than ours.

We are not eating any delivery food at all.

When shopping we wear gloves as well.

Thins have been stressful and I have not spent enough time outdoors - this has to change.

NorthReport

BC's physical distancing one-two punch of our BC NDP government combined with BC's Public Health Officer appears to be paying off as BC's curve seems to be flattening Let's keep up the good work

NorthReport

The missing six weeks: how Trump failed the biggest test of his life

 

The president was aware of the danger from the coronavirus – but a lack of leadership has created an emergency of epic proportions

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/mar/28/trump-coronavirus-politics-us-health-disaster

Sean in Ottawa

NorthReport wrote:

The missing six weeks: how Trump failed the biggest test of his life

 

The president was aware of the danger from the coronavirus – but a lack of leadership has created an emergency of epic proportions

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/mar/28/trump-coronavirus-politics-us-health-disaster

I placed this in the other Corona thread:

I said on twitter that the choice here was either to place an emphasis on the economy or the people. This package appears to me to be a kinder gentler version of the former rather than the later. People are protected to the extent that they are actors in the economy. Yes, we can thank the Liberals, NDP, Greens and BQ for recognizing that the people are essential parts of the economy but the protections are only to their role in it and not based on them as human beings. To do so would require a full acknowledgement of the impact of this crisis on EVERYONE. The wording of this bill apporaches people as workers but not as people otherwise it would not have made that line where it is now. There is no hope at present that this will change as it would require a new vision of who is impacted and not just a continued escalating reaction to the level of the crisis.

In this Canada has missed the point with all parties onside. It has recognized people as workers but not recognized them as people. In that sense Canada is only somewhat better than the US. Countries have to stop  seeing people as actors in the economy and start to see the economy as an actor among people. Until they do so responses to emergencies will always have the wrong emphasis and will always miss the mark. 

We do not need to be kind to people as we manage the economy as centre left parties tend to do (rather than Conservative parties who do not bother). Instead we have to manage the economy to service the people and maintain the economy to that end.

This crisis is exposing the tendency of systems (economies and governments) to protect the systems more than people they serve.

The charity and kindness of the religious to the needy rather than a recognition of the entitlement and obligation to and of other humans, is something the political left speaks of. The problem is that this vision is the foundation of politics and comes through even the most social democratic of parties in a crisis.

This should be the lesson of Covid-19.

 

Sean in Ottawa

I am sorry I cannot post sources but I can explain.

You know by now that I live with an Iranian. This person is saying that she is hearing numerous people have died that she knows. These numbers are so far beyond official figures. Think of the odds of learning that several people you know have died per day. This would not amount to a few hundred a day. Just think in a country of double the population of Canada the chances of knowing about 1% of the deaths every day. Not believable. Far more must be dying. One PART explanation is that many are not dying of Covid19. They are dying of conditions that could have been treated but are not due to the virus having overrun the hospitals. (Something to think about as the US lets their crisis get more out of control).

Secondly, she read this from a Persian news site: 21 million cell phone accounts have been cancelled in China. Sure accounts get cancelled but not this massive number in such a short time. Some may be people isolating that can use wifi. Some may be changing providers. But this number is alarming and COULD suggest that the deaths there are higher than the estimates being provided. She tells me that there are similar reports in Iran but had no figures.

I will add this: China is a country with a rapidly aging population. When old people die it is not news. There are over 40 varients of this virus and the Chinese version seemed to hit older people proportionately even harder than many other places who have found a younger demographic more affected. People may be reluctant to go to the doctor and be tested for fear of getting it. When they die they are seldom tested afterwards. It is possible China has a bigger problem than we know. It is also likely that this is true in many other countries. Who asks that many questions when someone in their 80s gets the flu and dies? People watching China need to stop thinking what is happening is over there, cannot happen here and is due to some difference between here and there. That mentality must stop. The prime relevant differences between China and here are 1) it exploded there first so they are chronologically ahead of us 2) Their population is much more massive than here 3) They have a manufacturing ability that exceeds ours in terms of ramping up supplies 4) Their population is older than many countries rank 66th of 227 (not Canada who ranks 28 about the top 90th percentile of aging). Other than that the rest of the world's countries are mostly in the same position.

Another point - sorry I do not now have the source but others may find in. A village in Italy had something like 31 offical Covid-19 deaths. But they also recorded more than 100 additional deaths in addition to this over the previous year. The difference is supected to be due to the overwhelmed system.

laine lowe laine lowe's picture

It's been a few days since Jerry has posted and he suspected he had the virus. I sure hope he is in the clear and if not, well taken care of so he comes through this strong and healthy.

kropotkin1951

Sean I searched cell phones in China and Wikki says there are 1,598,360,000 accounts. While an almost 5% change would be noticeable I am not sure what it signifies. Look at Canada in two months and see how many people have cancelled their cell phones. However I know that people change carriers here all the time and that would mean they cancelled their cell coverage even though they switched to another carrier.

Sean in Ottawa

kropotkin1951 wrote:

Sean I searched cell phones in China and Wikki says there are 1,598,360,000 accounts. While an almost 5% change would be noticeable I am not sure what it signifies. Look at Canada in two months and see how many people have cancelled their cell phones. However I know that people change carriers here all the time and that would mean they cancelled their cell coverage even though they switched to another carrier.

I tried to see what a normal change would be but cannot. I also see that there are many reports of this but I cannot find one that is really credible in terms of analysis.

I do maintain that the deaths among the elderly in many countries will be higher due to lack of care during this and higher due to Coronavirus than would be reported. I don't believe that this will vary much from country to country except that countries that had it earlier will show up earlier.

kropotkin1951

In December 2018 my oldest son died of complications from a nasty cold or flu that he had for weeks. He looked like he was getting better and then it attacked his respiratory system and he died before his care providers could get him to the hospital. The death certificate said nothing about the virus that killed him only the parts of his body that failed as a result of the virus. There are no reliable before statistics to compare to this year anyways so therefore no conclusions to be drawn no matter what statistics they keep for this outbreak of a virus.

Sean in Ottawa

kropotkin1951 wrote:

In December 2018 my oldest son died of complications from a nasty cold or flu that he had for weeks. He looked like he was getting better and then it attacked his respiratory system and he died before his care providers could get him to the hospital. The death certificate said nothing about the virus that killed him only the parts of his body that failed as a result of the virus. There are no reliable before statistics to compare to this year anyways so therefore no conclusions to be drawn no matter what statistics they keep for this outbreak of a virus.

I am so sorry to hear that you have had this tragedy. 

I do think there are some statistics that are meaningful. The overall death rates- if they spike during this period in multiple places (as they did in Italy)  then I think it is fair to assume the virus is likely responsible. Of course this does not mean they died of the virus or becuase of it as I explained previously. The stress on health systems and on people's willingness to engage with those systems is likely going to be statistically observable. This does not mean hard numbers to know the boundaries but enough to know there is something here that is greater than the official numbers from testing.

I also think that this virus puts a psychological stress on people that affects their physical health and in some cases can lead to premature death.

I believe that in the future people will study this and be able to draw conclusions even if they are not able to pinpoint accurate figures. (By this I mean a measurable difference other than one that can be measured specifically if you will.)

kropotkin1951

We do not track nor test normally for deadlier than average virulent strains of viruses. We do, to a certain extent, track what flu strains are going through the population during flu season but tests are not routine. If we developed better testing models then in the future someone in a high risk category who tests positive for a dangerous strain might be given Iterferon or some other drug immediately. Better to help peoples immune system fight off a virus before they have to be rushed to a hospital and put on a ventilator, just to die anyways.

Sean in Ottawa

kropotkin1951 wrote:

We do not track nor test normally for deadlier than average virulent strains of viruses. We do, to a certain extent, track what flu strains are going through the population during flu season but tests are not routine. If we developed better testing models then in the future someone in a high risk category who tests positive for a dangerous strain might be given Iterferon or some other drug immediately. Better to help peoples immune system fight off a virus before they have to be rushed to a hospital and put on a ventilator, just to die anyways.

Absolutely. It is also true that basic research is poorly funded the world over and specific research into Corona virus vaccines was stalled due to lack of funding. We had researchers in Canada on the edge of this but stopped funding them to continue.

Out of this crisis may be a realization that we need test kits.

We may also see a different level of willingnes in countries to accept people's locations being monitored by government and that may not be a good thing...

The whole world is now the experiment about what to do in a pandemic that could have been studied more in theory had countries been willing to do this in advance.

It is possible that a new respect for science may emerge among populations. But we cannot be sure.

In the US the distancing strategy should become more popular as States that are practicing this are starting to see declines and the ones that are not are shooting up in cases. However, in Florida we see the Republican machine starting to blame Democrat states instead of their own actions. 

NorthReport

Trump’s ‘Don’t Blame Me’ Message Is Going to Wear Terribly

https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2020/03/trumps-coronavirus-blame-responsibility-polls-election.html

NorthReport
Pondering

Misfit wrote:

After a big crisis like this, people may start to listen to Bernie Sanders.

I hope it isn't. Time to make room for Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez. 

On the Canadian side of the border, perhaps  Canada will be ready for Niki Ashton soon. Trudeau has another 2 years now. 

Pondering

kropotkin1951 wrote:

Thanks for your concern, I am just fine. My name says my age and that is 69 and I had pneumonia a few years ago so I am in a high risk category. I had to get out today to buy essential supplies, one of those things being a new keyboard. There is a purgatory like feeling to staying at home and only being able to read what people are saying but not having a working keyboard.

I went to various stores and people are practicing physical distancing and the stores are all wiping things down as people are shopping. We have a laundry room that is between our garage and the main part of the house so I washed down everything I bought with rubbing alcohol and stripped off my clothes and then had a shower.  So now I am feeling worry free from my outdoor excursion into the world of humans. The video below covers the basics of getting things into the house safely.

My wife and I are very lucky to live beside the community forest and while all our parks, that have any equipment, are closed the walking trails are open and we hike 5 to 6 km in the woods almost everyday, now that we don't have anywhere else to go.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sjDuwc9KBps

I am itching to go walk on Mont Royal but I won't be leaving my building for a while longer. My neighbourhood is considered a hotspot.

I too am happy you are well and I also like you. 

Sean in Ottawa

Pondering wrote:

Misfit wrote:

After a big crisis like this, people may start to listen to Bernie Sanders.

I hope it isn't. Time to make room for Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez. 

On the Canadian side of the border, perhaps  Canada will be ready for Niki Ashton soon. Trudeau has another 2 years now. 

After this, politics will be a propaganda war over interpretation. I am not willing to predict who will win this.

Unfortunately I am also not able to be as optimistic that truth will prevail. That is a nice thought and I hope it is the result but optimism does not exist for me on this count. We all must do our best to make sure that truth survives. There will be significant economic resources deployed to make people think what the people with those resources want us to think.

I think the greatest pandemic is the lack of critical thinking, ignorance, greed, and stupidity. Sorry to those who want optimism but I think realism might be more what we need to avoid the worst. any positive result will ONLY be becuase poeple fight very, very hard for it.

NorthReport

Only 43 new cases today in BC

NorthReport

According to the BC Public Health Officer our social distancing approach to slowing down the virus is probably going to be with us for a long, long time.  It may well be longer than the summer!  

Sean in Ottawa

NorthReport wrote:

Only 43 new cases today in BC

None of these statistics are accurate. There is an extreme shortage of testing kit supplies around the world. This is a big problem here as well.

Sean in Ottawa

NorthReport wrote:

According to the BC Public Health Officer our social distancing approach to slowing down the virus is probably going to be with us for a long, long time.  It may well be longer than the summer!  

We are expecting a few months after this and then a second wave like H1N1. So maybe a year. If it does not just stay.

Need a vaccine.

 

NorthReport

It appears that Ottawa will soon be reversing its position on masks.

Official nonsense on masks, travel bans is killing Ottawa's COVID-19 credibility

When officials say 'masks don’t work,' regular people hear, 'we have a dire shortage of masks for frontline healthcare workers so please give us your masks'

https://nationalpost.com/opinion/chris-selley-official-nonsense-on-masks-and-travel-bans-is-killing-ottawas-coronavirus-credibility

NorthReport

If the trends continue the USA will have 25% of all cases on the planet before much longer - what are they doing wrong?

Sean in Ottawa

NorthReport wrote:

It appears that Ottawa will soon be reversing its position on masks.

Official nonsense on masks, travel bans is killing Ottawa's COVID-19 credibility

When officials say 'masks don’t work,' regular people hear, 'we have a dire shortage of masks for frontline healthcare workers so please give us your masks'

https://nationalpost.com/opinion/chris-selley-official-nonsense-on-masks-and-travel-bans-is-killing-ottawas-coronavirus-credibility

The article raises good questions about the difference between what the politicians say, what they say their reasons are, and what their real reasons are.

The fact is that BOTH the government and the population have huge reasons not to trust each other.

 

Sean in Ottawa

New conspiracy theory:

Smart people like that science thing. They know science. They meet and conspire in those meeting places called universities. MEANS

Smart people know stupid people disproportionately vote right wing. Smart people know they have been outnumbered by stupid people. Smart people know they can lose the next election to stupid people. MOTIVE

Smart people know stupid people will not follow the advice of scientists. They know that they will not believe facts. They know that stupid people are more at risk becuase they will disregard advice to stay home and healthy. If the smart people stay home and the stupid people go out and contract the virus, the smart people will win the next election. OPPORTUNITY

Prove you are a smart person and stay home (and vote against the right wing the next time you have a chance).

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